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[Plinko]

Damn, 3DS numbers are horrid. When was last years price drop? August or September? I think the 3DS needs to drop to $149 for the Holiday season to sell well. Kids will be asking for iPads and iTouches as opposed to 3DS' and Vita, so Nintendo needs to make price point the selling point.

Every NPD people spout this nonsense.

We are NEVER going to see DS-like handheld sales again. Never. The only way sales look "horrid" are if you mistakenly compare them to the DS, which was released at a time where marketshare wasn't eaten up by iOS and smartphones.

 

[Miles X]

Can someone link me to Sony PR?

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

60k to 40k, that's not in line with the drops it's had, despite price cuts. At this point price is not a barrier for Wii so $99 is gonna do little when retailers arnt bothering to put it on shelves because A) no software and B) WiiU, it's not like the DS which is still selling amazing.

Are Nintendo not expecting 7.3m or something for WiiU this FY? (adjusted down 1m because of manufacturing difficulties) Their initial forecast was 10.5m for Wii + WiiU. So if they are on target they expect a lowly 2.2m - 3.2m for Wii this FY. Goodness knows what it's going to be next year.

$149 to $99 always makes an impact, the recent DSi drops were even less steep and essentially doubled it's baseline sales. A $99 Wii would likely have the same effect, even next year.

There's a lot NOA could do to drive more Wii sales ($99, new colors, new bundles, unreleased games, etc) but I just don't think they care though.

 

[Tears For Fears]

unlike Ninja Gaiden, DOA is actually better after Itagaki left.

No, no, no. You should know this, you've been playing DOA for a long ass time. NO.

 

[DR2K]

No, no, no. You should know this, you've been playing DOA for a long ass time. NO.

DOA5 is the best fighter TN has ever come up with by and far.

 

[Miles X]

$149 to $99 always makes an impact, the recent DSi drops were even less steep and essentially doubled it's baseline sales. A $99 Wii would likely have the same effect, even next year.

There's a lot NOA could do to drive more Wii sales ($99, new colors, new bundles, unreleased games, etc) but I just don't think they care though.

Just don't see it, Wii is cheap enough as it is and next year it'll have WiiU something it will be competing against, and cheaper 360's, PS3's which are clearly still in demand.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Just don't see it, Wii is cheap enough as it is and next year it'll have WiiU something it will be competing against, and cheaper 360's, PS3's which are clearly still in demand.

People who would buy a $99 Wii probably aren't looking to buy a $299 Wii U. 360 might be more of a threat had Kinect not utterly collapsed.

Wii will still be getting the sort of casual shovelware that helps drive budget consoles though. I wouldn't be surprised if it still had Just Dance 5 next year, and it still ended up being the best selling version.

 

[crazygambit]

Lol, Pachter. The DS is at the end of its lifespan and tapering off and the 3DS seems to be building momentum. You can't have a last gen portable cannibalizing the sales of the current one forever.

But it IS a bad trend. It shows Nintendo handhelds are losing costumers. Basically people that were buying DS software a year ago haven't moved on to the 3DS yet and aren't buying anything.

I don't know how you could see this as anything but bad. The fact that 3DS software sales are up is meaningless on its own, which is what Nintendo's PR was trying to spin.

 

[Miles X]

People who would buy a $99 Wii probably aren't looking to buy a $299 Wii U. 360 might be more of a threat had Kinect not utterly collapsed.

Wii will still be getting the sort of casual shovelware that helps drive budget consoles though. I wouldn't be surprised if it still had Just Dance 5 next year, and it still ended up being the best selling version.

It's a games console so it's all competition, just not as much as 360/Kinect.

JD5 likely will do best on Wii (Or WiiU) but at that point it's going to stop pushing HW, and that's pretty much all the SW it actually has coming, even the shovelware has dried up.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

But it IS a bad trend. It shows Nintendo handhelds are losing costumers. Basically people that were buying DS software a year ago haven't moved on to the 3DS yet and aren't buying anything.

I don't know how you could see this as anything but bad. The fact that 3DS software sales are up is meaningless on its own, which is what Nintendo's PR was trying to spin.

Well, there's other factors too, like 3DS/DS having no major 1st party releases this year while 2011 had Star Fox and Kirby. There's also the question of digital shift, DSiWare+eShop could be making up the difference YOY and we wouldn't really know from this.

Next month will have Layton and Pokémon, if it's down YOY then Pachter's chicken little routine might actually have some merit.

 

[Frankfurter]

360 has outsold Wii more this year, than in the same timeframe it did last year. Slowing sales have not slowed down the pace in which 360 is overtaking Wii.

360 isn't going to be down considerably in the holidays, though noone will believe me so I guess we'll have to wait till january. MS are not doing a price cut but they're doing bundles which are more or less in line with a price cut, they also proved last holiday they only needed bundles to be up yoy (Nov + Dec combined). With Halo 4 in November especially, don't expect Nov to be any less than 1.5m, Dec might be a bit uglier though.

Wii? It's going to be down a lot, not 0 obviously, but it barely managed 1m over Nov last year. 360 will easily shave 2m off this holiday if not more due to the sheer drop in Wii sales.

Then it's just a case of waiting it out, 360 won't die like wii has, for obvious reason.

It's a case of when not if.

Not to mention, it's virtually a guarantee the 360 will get an official cut sometime next year, likely spring. That'll help stabalize sales on par with this year, whilst Wii will be doing 10k a month. (no joke, it's doing 60k~ now ...)



I would hope MS made a statement, but they didn't about overtaking Wii SW.

I really don't see how you could possibly expect the X360 to not be down considerably in Nov/Dec YoY. It's been down the whole year by a lot, sometimes up to 50%. Halo 4 is fine and all, but I doubt that there is lots of people buying X360's for that specific game. There have been TONS of games targeted at these people the past 7 years, namely Halo 3 and about half a dozen CoD games.

 

[frankie_baby]

People who would buy a $99 Wii probably aren't looking to buy a $299 Wii U. 360 might be more of a threat had Kinect not utterly collapsed.

Wii will still be getting the sort of casual shovelware that helps drive budget consoles though. I wouldn't be surprised if it still had Just Dance 5 next year, and it still ended up being the best selling version.

Maybe they won't be the best selling version but I'd be pretty sure the wii will see just dance 6 and 7

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

It's a games console so it's all competition, just not as much as 360/Kinect.

JD5 likely will do best on Wii (Or WiiU) but at that point it's going to stop pushing HW, and that's pretty much all the SW it actually has coming, even the shovelware has dried up.

There are still people who won't spend $200+ on a console, budget pricepoints still have impact and let you reach a different consumer. $99 would also put Wii into impulse territory, these things definitely make a difference which (again) is why you see DS doubling sales with the recent drops.

And the shovelware hasn't dried up at all, Wii still has 20 releases scheduled over the next 2 months, which puts it only behind 360, PS3 and (barely) 3DS.

 

[Miles X]

I really don't see how you could possibly expect the X360 to not be down considerably in Nov/Dec YoY. It's been down the whole year by a lot, sometimes up to 50%. Halo 4 is fine and all, but I doubt that there is lots of people buying X360's for that specific game. There have been TONS of games targeted at these people the past 7 years, namely Halo 3 and about half a dozen CoD games.

One month it came close to 50%, other than that no, stop exaggerating. Some months it was only down as much 15%, the actual average is like 30% though.

360 was also down July - September last year. Then over the holidays, without a price cut, it was up. and it was up 350k~ in November. Despite being down the previous months.

This Nov they have Halo 4 on top of COD. I don't expect Nov to be down by much, with the possibility of it being up yoy depending on what bundles MS have going and deals. I've heard to expect $149 everywhere though, which did very well last Nov if you recall, 960k in a week?

Dec could be down a fair bit if MS takes their eyes off the ball again I admit, hopefully they looked at last years events and have planned for it. My main point is though, 360 won't be down enough that it won't actually outsell wii more this holiday than last. Like I said, Wii went from 3.6m holiday in 10, to 1.9m last year, it'll drop again harshly.

This is all futile, whether anyone likes it or not, the writing is on the wall. X360 is gonna overtake Wii in US.

 

[Hiro_Kunimi_80]

X360 will catch and pass Wii LTD userbase in US (and Uk, even sooner ) no matter how much they got down YoY this holidays

even if Microsoft launch the new hardware next november, X360 will have at least another year of phase out* , wii will have much more shorter pahse out



*
if they will phase out the product, which i think won't happen anytime soon.
Microsoft will continue to sell an X360 + Kinect (as low price product below 149$) as only sku for many months even year after next Xbox arrives

just like sony did with ps2

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

I think there's going to be more cannibalization with Halo 4 and Blops 2 than anything. Probably hurting the former more, Halo isn't what it used to be.


After Xbox, MS has quite a bit to prove with it's "phase out" of 360. I'm not totally sure if they'll prefer the Sony or Nintendo approach either, the latter sort of seems to favor a better nextgen transition really.

 

[Miles X]

I think there's going to be more cannibalization with Halo 4 and Blops 2 than anything. Probably hurting the former more, Halo isn't what it used to be.


After Xbox, MS has quite a bit to prove with it's "phase out" of 360. I'm not totally sure if they'll prefer the Sony or Nintendo approach either, the latter sort of seems to favor a better nextgen transition really.

Halo is fine ... ODST a side game sold 5m and Reach is at 7m+, Skyrim proved last year there is room for multiple purchases.

No they don't. Do you even know the situation surrounding the Xbox discontinuation? Or are you just going to come up with every excuse in the book as to how 360 isn't going to outsell Wii, at least do some research first.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Halo is fine ... ODST a side game sold 5m and Reach is at 7m+, Skyrim proved last year there is room for multiple purchases.

ODST and Reach were 2+ years ago, Reach was down from 3 and barely above a "side game". How did CE Anniversary do btw? And what are the actual US figures for all these?

Skyrim isn't a fps, there's no genre cannibalization there.

No they don't. Do you even know the situation surrounding the Xbox discontinuation? Or are you just going to come up with every excuse in the book as to how 360 isn't going to outsell Wii, at least do some research first.

Sure, MS cut and ran because Nvidia was raping them on the GPU. They don't have that motivator this time but looking at how PS2 to PS3 went versus Xbox to 360, I'm still not convinced they'll be pushing for a muddier transition like the former. People bitch about Nintendo's platform wind downs, but the truth is it tends to work out pretty well for them.

Also, I never said I don't expect 360 to pass Wii in the US eventually, I do. I just don't think you need to leap to insane conclusions like Wii suddenly selling 10k monthly, price cuts having zero impact and 360 miraculously reversing it's YOY decline to get there.

 

[Miles X]

ODST and Reach were 2+ years ago, and Reach was down from 3. and barely above a "side game". How did CE Anniversary do btw?

Skyrim isn't a fps, there's no genre cannibalization there.

Reach still matched Halo 3's launch period, and that's all that counts when talking about HW boosts. Anniversary was a very successful remake, not sure if you were expecting it to do gangbusters?

Doesn't matter if Skyrim wasn't an FPS, it was still moreorless the same market. All these games that cross over into mass market appeal (Skyrim, Halo, Mario, COD, Assassins Creed, Fifa) will always do well no matter what they're pitted against.

 

[michaelius]

Every NPD people spout this nonsense.

We are NEVER going to see DS-like handheld sales again. Never. The only way sales look "horrid" are if you mistakenly compare them to the DS, which was released at a time where marketshare wasn't eaten up by iOS and smartphones.

3DS already had price cut, half of Nintendo biggest system sellers are already released and it cannot even reach 300k in a month which started with second week of new XL model release.

 

[Taurus]

3DS already had price cut, half of Nintendo biggest system sellers are already released and it cannot even reach 300k in a month which started with second week of new XL model release.

Why is 300k so special number? How's Vita doing by the way?

 

[Miles X]

Sure, MS cut and ran because Nvidia was raping them on the GPU. They don't have that motivator this time but looking at how PS2 to PS3 went versus Xbox to 360, I'm still not convinced they'll be pushing for a muddier transition like the former. People bitch about Nintendo's platform wind downs, but the truth is it tends to work out pretty well for them.

Also, I never said I don't expect 360 to pass Wii in the US eventually, I do. I just don't think you need to leap to insane conclusions like Wii suddenly selling 10k monthly, price cuts having zero impact and 360 miraculously reversing it's YOY decline to get there.

lol @ you thinking wii's slowdown was their choice ... Sony's strategy is by far more appealing.

This time last year 60k a month would have seemed bonkers, as it was selling 200k each month. 10k is gonna come fast. Price cuts having no effects? Well the last one Wii got, it was still down YoY the following months? Probably propped it up moreso than if it didn't have one but it didn't do much good did it? And lastly 360 won't be able to reverse being down overall YOY, however where it counts Nov will be up and Dec down, to even it out or be down slightly. In comparison Wii will be down considerably and the gap will close faster than it did last year.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

Why is 300k so special number? How's Vita doing by the way?

Pointing out terrible Vita sales don't make 3DS sales more impressive, no more than pointing out terrible Wii sales makes 360 sales impressive.

It's clearly underwhelming in the US compared to Japan.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Reach still matched Halo 3's launch period, and that's all that counts when talking about HW boosts. Anniversary was a very successful remake, not sure if you were expecting it to do gangbusters?

Doesn't matter if Skyrim wasn't an FPS, it was still moreorless the same market. All these games that cross over into mass market appeal (Skyrim, Halo, Mario, COD, Assassins Creed, Fifa) will always do well no matter what they're pitted against.

Actually no, Halo 3 did 3.3m in less than 2 weeks, Reach did 3.3m in 3 weeks. It also had weaker legs, totaling just 4.7m a year after release while 3 grew to 5.5m.

I'm not saying Halo won't do well, I'm just saying it won't drive anything (Reach didn't drive hardware either) and it won't be breaking records for the franchise. 360 has it's market locked down already and Halo's no longer the genre king, it's going against the genre king now.

Also, if you can't see why Skyrim makes a poor comparison for COD vs Halo, I don't know what to say to you.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

lol @ you thinking wii's slowdown was their choice ... Sony's strategy is by far more appealing.

This time last year 60k a month would have seemed bonkers, as it was selling 200k each month. 10k is gonna come fast. Price cuts having no effects? Well the last one Wii got, it was still down YoY the following months? Probably propped it up moreso than if it didn't have one but it didn't do much good did it? And lastly 360 won't be able to reverse being down overall YOY, however where it counts Nov will be up and Dec down, to even it out or be down slightly. In comparison Wii will be down considerably and the gap will close faster than it did last year.

Of course Nintendo chose this, they chose to move software R&D to 3DS/Wii U and they chose to hold pricepoints. They were pretty much the only company holding Wii up.

Sony's strategy is certainly better for the old system, but not the new one. Dumping Xbox worked out pretty great for MS too.

And lol @ your last paragraph. Keep the crazy flowing.

 

[Miles X]

Actually no, Halo 3 did 3.3m in less than 2 weeks, Reach did 3.3m in 3 weeks. It also had weaker legs, totaling just 4.7m a year after release while 3 grew to 5.5m.

I'm not saying Halo won't do well, I'm just saying it won't drive anything (Reach didn't drive hardware either) and it won't be breaking records for the franchise. 360 has it's market locked down already and Halo's no longer the genre king, it's going against the genre king now.

Also, if you can't see why Skyrim makes a poor comparison for COD vs Halo, I don't know what to say to you.

The difference between Reach and 3 is marginal. Of course Reach drove HW and so will Halo 4, not even counting the special edition bundles. Just like COD does every holiday.

I don't care if you think Skyrim and COD players were completely different sets of people, I don't. I've seen enough from the mass market to know they'll buy whatever is the big blockbuster. This holiday it'll be COD and Halo 4.

Of course Nintendo chose this, they chose to move software R&D to 3DS/Wii U and they chose to hold pricepoints. They were pretty much the only company holding Wii up.

Sony's strategy is certainly better for the old system, but not the new one. Dumping Xbox worked out pretty great for MS too.

And lol @ your last paragraph. Keep the crazy flowing.

I don't know why I'm bothering with you with that tag, should have known what I was in for!

Wii started dropping a long time ago, it was out of Nintendo's hands how the trend continued. Like past gens the Wii peaked around its 3rd year and fell like normal.

PS3 didn't suffer at the start because of PS2, I think we all know why it didn't do great. Sony's strategy is great if implemented well, like I'm sure MS will. Nintendo's not so much, they have low priced HW going up against low priced HW. and WiiU is still relatively cheap.

Last para is fine, you think 360 is gonna outsell Wii by less than 1.5m over Nov+ Dec? Care to wager?

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

Actually no, Halo 3 did 3.3m in less than 2 weeks, Reach did 3.3m in 3 weeks. It also had weaker legs, totaling just 4.7m a year after release while 3 grew to 5.5m.

I'm not saying Halo won't do well, I'm just saying it won't drive anything (Reach didn't drive hardware either) and it won't be breaking records for the franchise. 360 has it's market locked down already and Halo's no longer the genre king, it's going against the genre king now.

Also, if you can't see why Skyrim makes a poor comparison for COD vs Halo, I don't know what to say to you.

360 sales were up 37% yoy in September 2010 vs September 2009. It's impossible to tell if that was just the slim effect or Halo as well. Either way, betting against a 3 million + launch for Halo is a fool's errand.

Edit: The Wii is all but dead...the Wii U launch will further bury it. No one is going to run out and buy it in droves when much of Nintendo's legacy software has held in price (or been outright discontinued) and the only significant releases are Just Dance.

 

[allan-bh]

I believe Halo 4 will be launch record for the series and will push some hardware.

And Reach push hardware sales too.

 

[donny2112]

I believe Halo 4 will be launch record for the series and will push some hardware.

First time launching in November since Halo 2, I think. And it (w/ special edition bundle) and BO2 (probably w/ special edition bundle) will push sales, yes. Still probably down from 2011, though, unless Microsoft does a similar round of crazy Black Friday deals like last year. Last November was a huge boost, greatly due to the BF deals, which even made Dec down MOM for 360. That was some crazy stuff. Unless Microsoft does similar deals to last BF, Nov-2012 will be down YOY to Nov-2011 (but Dec-2012 would then probably be up YOY to Dec-2011).

 

[Miles X]

Oh yeah, if MS doesn't try hard they will be down. But the fact there is no price cut, must mean they're is room for more aggressive bundling this holiday. Dunno where I read it but apparntly $149 will be everywhere.

 

[Taurus]

Pointing out terrible Vita sales don't make 3DS sales more impressive, no more than pointing out terrible Wii sales makes 360 sales impressive.

It's clearly underwhelming in the US compared to Japan.

Handheld market has changed a lot since DS days. You have to see the big picture: PSP and Vita are dead, DS is on its way out and 3DS is doing, well, mediocre to good?

 

[Hammer24]

Unless Microsoft does similar deals to last BF, Nov-2012 will be down YOY to Nov-2011 (but Dec-2012 would then probably be up YOY to Dec-2011).

Thats exactly what I expect to happen. Nov -10%, Dec +10% YOY.

 

[test_account]

Every NPD people spout this nonsense.

We are NEVER going to see DS-like handheld sales again. Never. The only way sales look "horrid" are if you mistakenly compare them to the DS, which was released at a time where marketshare wasn't eaten up by iOS and smartphones.

I think that (the DS) is what people are comparing it to when they say horrid numbers. It has always been like this in these threads, people comparing the sales to the previous things. Same thing was it with the PS3 in the begining, people kept comparing it to the PS2 despite the big price differences. Could be a fair comparison, but that is how it always have been.

 

[Plinko]

3DS already had price cut, half of Nintendo biggest system sellers are already released and it cannot even reach 300k in a month which started with second week of new XL model release.

So? Again, you're not taking into account the vastly different market share at the respective time in the life of the DS and 3DS. It's not even close. It's a crowded market now--it really wasn't at this point in the DS's life. 3DS is doing ok when that is taken into account.

Also, the thing is stil priced too high. Consumers clearly have a psychological barrier when it comes to a certain price point for a handheld video game console. I truly believe Nintendo/Sony (if they release one) will shoot for a $129 price point with it's next handheld.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

I don't care if you think Skyrim and COD players were completely different sets of people, I don't. I've seen enough from the mass market to know they'll buy whatever is the big blockbuster. This holiday it'll be COD and Halo 4.

Same audience doesn't mean the same thing with different genres. That's why COD and AssCreed don't cannibalize each other every year.

I don't know why I'm bothering with you with that tag, should have known what I was in for!

Even Takao knows better than to predict a 10k baseline for Wii next year. To put things in perspective, PSP just now hit those sorts of figures and that platform's been essentially dead in the US for going on 4 years. Let me know when you've left crazy town.

Wii started dropping a long time ago, it was out of Nintendo's hands how the trend continued. Like past gens the Wii peaked around its 3rd year and fell like normal.

It really declined in 2011, which also correlates to when Nintendo shifted internal development to new systems and we had several month droughts without 1st party software. Wii's record height was it's 4th holiday, but it was still doing great in 2010 yet.

PS3 didn't suffer at the start because of PS2, I think we all know why it didn't do great. Sony's strategy is great if implemented well, like I'm sure MS will. Nintendo's not so much, they have low priced HW going up against low priced HW. and WiiU is still relatively cheap.

PS2 definitely hurt PS3 upfront, both by attracting notable resources (GOW2 being PS2 rather than PS3 for example) and providing a better massmarket option for new PlayStation buyers. When Nintendo's attempted a softer transition (like GBA to DS, or DS to 3DS at first) it hurt them too. The most successful transitions the past decade have also been the harshest (Xbox to 360, GC to Wii), maybe it's just a coincidence though.

Last para is fine, you think 360 is gonna outsell Wii by less than 1.5m over Nov+ Dec? Care to wager?

I think 360 will be down YOY over Nov+Dec. I'll wager on that.

360 sales were up 37% yoy in September 2010 vs September 2009. It's impossible to tell if that was just the slim effect or Halo as well. Either way, betting against a 3 million + launch for Halo is a fool's errand.

Oh, I expect H4 to definitely sell over 3m. It has the full month to do it and launches in November this time, if it can't do over 3m with that then the franchise is in trouble.

 

[Miles X]

Even Takao knows better than to predict a 10k baseline for Wii next year. To put things in perspective, PSP just now hit those sorts of figures and that platform's been essentially dead in the US for going on 4 years. Let me know when you've left crazy town.

I think 360 will be down YOY over Nov+Dec. I'll wager on that.

That's not what I said, I said it won't be down enough that it won't outsell Wii less than it did last holiday.

And yet PSP was doing 50k+ plus last year, hmm much like the Wii! Actually PSP has had better twilight years than Wii considering it's two years older.

You're the type that would have said it was crazy last september, when Wii sold 240k, that Wii would be selling 70k next September and be down 70% YOY. Admit it.

 

[Plinko]

I think that (the DS) is what people are comparing it to when they say horrid numbers. It has always been like this in these threads, people comparing the sales to the previous things. Same thing was it with the PS3 in the begining, people kept comparing it to the PS2 despite the big price differences. Could be a fair comparison, but that is how it always have been.

I get that, but it's not a justified comparison. Comparing PS3 to PS2 was justified--it released in a market of 3 consoles competing for market share, just like the PS2 did. There was nothing like today's app market competing for console marketshare at the time--just Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo's consoles competing against each other.

The 3DS now competes with the ever-popular iOS/tablet/smartphone market which is huge. That wasn't there for DS.

 

[zroid]

Where are people even buying SM64 DS? I haven't seen that game in stores for years.

 

[allan-bh]

It's curious how Halo 2, 3 and Reach had similar first month on NPD, all three ~3.3M.

Maybe I'm expecting too much, but I don't see 4 million out of question for Halo 4 and 3.5M as a safe bet.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

That's not what I said, I said it won't be down enough that it won't outsell Wii less than it did last holiday.

And yet PSP was doing 50k+ plus last year, hmm much like the Wii! Actually PSP has had better twilight years than Wii considering it's two years older.

You're the type that would have said it was crazy last september, when Wii sold 240k, that Wii would be selling 70k next September and be down 70% YOY. Admit it.

That is what you said; Nov up, Dec slightly down or even.

Like I said, we're done until you've left crazy town. The only way Wii hits a 10k baseline in 2013 is if production halts. Though tbh I wouldn't even put that past Nintendo.

 

[Bisnic]

WoW MoP being this low is surprising, especially after the expansion sold like 2.8(?) millions in its first week. I guess digital sales are much more popular on PC than i imagined.

 

[Miles X]

That is what you said; Nov up, Dec slightly down or even.

Like I said, we're done until you've left crazy town. The only way Wii hits a 10k baseline in 2013 is if production halts. Though tbh I wouldn't even put that past Nintendo.

Nothing crazy about it, you still can't admit you'd had said this time last year it'd be crazy for Wii to be hitting 60k. And wii will be close to discontinuation this time next year anyway.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Nothing crazy about it, you still can't admit you'd had said this time last year it'd be crazy for Wii to be hitting 60k. And wii will be close to discontinuation this time next year anyway.

Admit what, I didn't say that last year? Even crazier than your 10k prediction is your fixation on what I didn't say.

 

[specialguy]

After Xbox, MS has quite a bit to prove with it's "phase out" of 360. I'm not totally sure if they'll prefer the Sony or Nintendo approach either, the latter sort of seems to favor a better nextgen transition really.

Console will already be 8 years old by then lol. Even if they kill it the day Durango comes out thats a long time. I remember early in the gen tons of FUD about how MS was going to abandon 360. I remember Shane Bettenhausen mentioning it many times on weekend confirmed probably circa 2008, that he wasn't sure of the Xbox future, MS was already working on the next one, but Sony wasn't working on the next playstation, etc etc. Look how that turned out.

Xbox was built as a money pit royalty hardware model, that's why the abrupt canning. 360 is not. There's no reason MS shouldn't happily sell 360 as long as possible PS2 style. It should also play into nice natural market segmentation "heres our 149 360 with a giant library and tons of family stuff, and here's our 399 super duper Durango early adapter box for 20 something males"

 

[Effect]

Yeah it's almost as if DS is supposed to retire or something

I had to face palm when I read that.

 

[Miles X]

Admit what, I didn't say that last year? Even crazier than your 10k prediction is your fixation on what I didn't say.

Where did I say you said that? I'm asking you to admit this time last year you would have thought it was crazy for Wii to be doing 70k~ this september (at the time it did 240k)

it's too highlight how much can change in a year and how something that seems crazy now, actually isn't. Learn to read, continually misquoting me.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Console will already be 8 years old by then lol. Even if they kill it the day Durango comes out thats a long time. I remember early in the gen tons of FUD about how MS was going to abandon 360. I remember Shane Bettenhausen mentioning it many times on weekend confirmed probably circa 2008, that he wasn't sure of the Xbox future, MS was already working on the next one, but Sony wasn't working on the next playstation, etc etc. Look how that turned out.

Xbox was built as a money pit royalty hardware model, that's why the abrupt canning. 360 is not. There's no reason MS shouldn't happily sell 360 as long as possible PS2 style.

Sure, and I argued against the insanity of a 4 year cycle then too. MS learned from their mistakes with Xbox.

The only reason against extending 360's cycle would be if it hinders Durango upfront, and that's still an "if". I'm pretty sure Sony's going to blow this nextgen transition somehow themselves though, they're going to push PS3 as long as possible no matter the consequences.

At the same time, I don't really see MS pushing 360 software development past Durango launch though. Core stuff has already transitioned internally, and the casual Kinect market already died on the vine. I mean, is there anything of significance you can realistically see on 360 past Nov 2013?

 

[Hammer24]

I mean, is there anything of significance you can realistically see on 360 past Nov 2013?

Downports from Durango, most probably. Would be an easy cash in.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Where did I say you said that? I'm asking you to admit this time last year you would have thought it was crazy for Wii to be doing 70k~ this september (at the time it did 240k)

it's too highlight how much can change in a year and how something that seems crazy now, actually isn't. Learn to read, continually misquoting me.

So what happened before will automatically happen again (well except magically in 360's case)? I'm still not sure what I'm suppossed to "admit" to, how about you admit 10k baseline was a pretty clearly laughable prediction?

Downports from Durango, most probably. Would be an easy cash in.

1st party? That would definitely hinder Durango, I seriously doubt it.

 

[Mihael Mello Keehl]

Where are people even buying SM64 DS? I haven't seen that game in stores for years.

I was at walmart the other week and saw like 10 fresh new copies 34.95