Support NeoGAF

[Mr. B Natural]

The failure of Sleeping Dogs signifies that the Open World GTA style genre is officially in "Alpha Dog Mode", like every other genre out there. Either you're an alpha dog IP that can sell millions and millions (for doing what everyone else is doing) or you don't bother.

If you're horror game doesn't start with Resident and end with Evil, then stay home.
If you're RTS doesn't rime with Far Raft, then stay home.
If you're platformer doesn't have a plumber, don't bother.
etc and etc and or etc.

Some games will get through (like 2 a gen at most) but the genre as a whole has no health anymore. It's sickly and only the alpha dogs can survive on any reliable basis (enough to warrant investment).

Why did we get so many fps's this gen? Because the alpha dogs were not established yet. That's changed, I believe, as well. COD used to leave scraps just like mario use to leave scraps during the nes and snes era. Not anymore.

 

[ThatObviousUser]

KH3D will be just fine, it will reach 800k np.

Yeah, unlike with BBS it has the benefit of being on a relatively new system, so it'll probably have legs.

Wish it was on the eShop though.

 

[Kade]

RIP MW3

 

[Tobor]

If I weren't at work I'd make Sony as Amy, Nintendo as the Doctor, and Microsoft as Rory.

What does Doctor Who have to do with a Sophie's Choice joke?

 

[CosmicQueso]

For the sake of perspective, have any other generational transitions experienced sales like the ones we're seeing now?

Yes. The last two were very similar. But in the past gens hardware came more quickly. The 3DS was a year late, the Wii U is a year late, the next Xbox and PS may come two years too late. We have big declines on current gen and next gen is just ramping up or not even out yet.

And other posters are right, on a time aligned basis, 3DS is absolutely crushing the NDS' sales pace. Software is similar... on a time aligned basis 3DS software is doing just fine compared to NDS. People forget just how terrible NDS software sold during the first 2 years.

Tablets and iOS are altering and expanding the landscape, but it's not a primary driver of what's going on in the market.

 

[John Harker]

sakaguchi>vita

 

[Joseph Flemming]

Yeah, unlike with BBS it has the benefit of being on a relatively new system, so it'll probably have legs.

Wish it was on the eShop though.

It'll be there eventually, after they squeeze every conceivable sale out of retail...you'll see. It's smart, let retail have it's chance, let the game get slowly discounted and stop being stocked, then release it for digital distribution and charge top dollar for it again, beacuse it'll be out of print.
After all premium pricing is the Square Enix way!

 

[Kusagari]

It'll be there eventually, after they squeeze every conceivable sale out of retail...you'll see. It's smart, let retail have it's chance, let the game get slowly discounted and stop being stocked, then release it for digital distribution and charge top dollar for it again, beacuse it'll be out of print.
After all premium pricing is the Square Enix way!

BBS never went up on PSN, so don't get your hopes up.

 

[ThatObviousUser]

What does Doctor Who have to do with a Sophie's Choice joke?

I thought it was a play on the episode Amy's Choice.

 

[Tookay]

3DS hasn't sustained itself? Sorry, the numbers simply don't point to that. It's tracking ahead of DS, it's software is tracking ahead of DS, it managing 65-70% of DS overall performance is hardly an untenable dream. Hope springs eternal though, keeping on wishing it and maybe it'll happen.

I think the thing with the "tracking ahead of the DS" argument is that the DS blew up after a certain point and people don't see that happening with anything in the 3DS' future.

Not to mention, they've fired some of their biggest shots with MK7, SM3DL, and NSMB2 where - correct me if I'm mistaken - some of those hadn't appeared yet in similar timeframe in the DS life cycle.

 

[Joseph Flemming]

BBS never went up on PSN, so don't get your hopes up.

Just speculation here, but I think "scared Nintendo" trying to relaunch their eshop with Demo's, Downloadable games & DLC, will be a little more persistent in trying to get third party titles stocked on the digital shelves.

 

[Captain Tuttle]

I don't think that's it.

I'd attribute more blame to the title itself ("Sleeping Dogs" doesn't convey anything to the mainstream gamer) and the fact that it's not a well-known brand.

Agreed. I mean, was it ever marketed at all to a mainstream audience? Hell, was it marketed to the "hardcore"? I'm on GAF pretty regularly and I know very little about the game, it just wasn't in my sights.

Edit: That being said, I probably wouldn't have bought the game anyway, sandboxes aren't my thing.

 

[Kusagari]

I think the thing with the "tracking ahead of the DS" argument is that the DS blew up after a certain point and people don't see that happening with anything in the 3DS' future.

Not to mention, they've fired some of their biggest shots with MK7, SM3DL, and NSMB2 where - correct me if I'm mistaken - some of those hadn't appeared yet in the DS life cycle.

They still have the biggest card of all in their pockets.

Pokemon.

 

[ThatObviousUser]

It'll be there eventually, after they squeeze every conceivable sale out of retail...you'll see. It's smart, let retail have it's chance, let the game get slowly discounted and stop being stocked, then release it for digital distribution and charge top dollar for it again, beacuse it'll be out of print.
After all premium pricing is the Square Enix way!

I'm worried because BBS was never put up on PSN and there were rumors that Square's contract with Disney explicitly left out any kind of digital provision.

 

[Tobor]

I thought it was a play on the episode Amy's Choice.

Sounds like that episode is also referencing Sophie's Choice.

 

[Tookay]

They still have the biggest card of all in their pockets.

Pokemon.

Of course. And that'll do gangbusters, I'm sure. (I'll probably jump back into Pokemon with that one too.)

But I don't see a "casual" hit like Brain Training 1 or Nintendogs 1 in the system's future, that'll really take the system off beyond the "gamer" market.

Spoiler

And, no, I don't think Brain Training 2 is going to reach the critical mass its predecessor did.

 

[Joseph Flemming]

They still have the biggest card of all in their pockets.

Pokemon.

^^ This. I expect a 3DS bump with B/W2 and Armageddon when a proper 3DS version shows next year.

 

[Aaron Strife]

They still have the biggest card of all in their pockets.

Pokemon.

Don't forget Animal Crossing.

What it really needs to take off like the DS is a new IP like Brain Age or Nintendogs, but I think they'll do just fine on their current trajectory.

 

[Zeeman]

I think the thing with the "tracking ahead of the DS" argument is that the DS blew up after a certain point and people don't see that happening with anything in the 3DS' future.

Not to mention, they've fired some of their biggest shots with MK7, SM3DL, and NSMB2 where - correct me if I'm mistaken - some of those hadn't appeared yet in similar timeframe in the DS life cycle.

Mario Kart DS came out in NA a year after the DS launched, while NSMB was about 6 months after that. So both were out 18 months into the DS lifecycle, which is about where we're at on the 3DS. (There's no real SM3DL equivalent on the DS)

 

[Tookay]

Agreed. I mean, was it ever marketed at all to a mainstream audience? Hell, was it marketed to the "hardcore"? I'm on GAF pretty regularly and I know very little about the game, it just wasn't in my sights.

I visit this site pretty frequently as well and no had idea what the status of the game was until release. It just isn't something that jumps out at you.

Mario Kart DS came out in NA a year after the DS launched, while NSMB was about 6 months after that. So both were out 18 months into the DS lifecycle, which is about where we're at on the 3DS. (There's no real SM3DL equivalent on the DS)

Thanks. I stand corrected.

(Though I do think SM64 DS could probably be considered a SM3DL stand-in.)

 

[Plinko]

You're going to defend every aspect of the big N regardless Plinko but how do you explain this.

LOL

I've been quite open about the fact that I own every system (yes, including a Vita--I'm one of the few). I have no allegiances whatsoever.

I want all companies to succeed because it's good for the industry. I only question the ridiculousness of some statements made on this board, most recently yours.

 

[Plinko]

It's odd to compare August 2011 without noting that the massive price drop hit during that month. Sure, August 2012 saw a new model, but it was only for the final week rather than the whole month, and is a significantly more expensive alternative rather than a drop in cost.

Spoiler

And no offense, but I really wish you'd change that profile image. Your last one was hilarious... this one kind of grosses me out.

And this is why I questioned his post. Just blindly comparing the 2 months without comparing the situations of each individual month is worthless. How he doesn't realize this is why people question him is beyond me.

 

[ThatObviousUser]

Don't forget Animal Crossing.

What it really needs to take off like the DS is a new IP like Brain Age or Nintendogs, but I think they'll do just fine on their current trajectory.

Animal Crossing always sells really well, but it isn't really a system seller (in the same way Mario is.)

 

[CosmicQueso]

I think the thing with the "tracking ahead of the DS" argument is that the DS blew up after a certain point and people don't see that happening with anything in the 3DS' future.

No one saw that happening with the NDS either, until it happened. And the Wii was something the publishing community laughed at until it really hit with the mass.

It's just silly to read posts that say that "handhelds are dead" or "Apple is the only future" and "the games industry is collapsing" and all of these other ridiculous things.

No analyst will say that they think the physical goods market will get bigger than it did in 2008. Digital sales keep growing and will continue to do so for the foressable future. But physical software in the US will hover around the $7 billion a year mark, maybe $8, through the next cycle. Consoles and handhelds may not grow like they did in that incredible 2004-2008 run, but they don't have to for the industry to be healthy and for gamers to have more options than ever.

Some of your deep desires for schadenfreude will be unrewarded I'm afraid.

 

[Saint Gregory]

sakaguchi>vita

Is this code for The Last Story sold more than Vita? That's sad for both actually but we're just kicking a dead horse now I think.

 

[allan-bh]

sakaguchi>vita

Say the Vita number like you did last month

 

[Mpl90]

Is this code for The Last Story sold more than Vita? That's sad for both actually but we're just kicking a dead horse now I think.

We already knew that.
Vita did less than TLS, which did less than 40k. creamsugar already covered it.

And I actually agree with who says that tablets are a treat for all the consoles, not just handhelds. Maybe right now more for handhelds ( Vita is being hit HARD by them), but they could start affecting home platforms too.

 

[Tookay]

No one saw that happening with the NDS either, until it happened. And the Wii was something the publishing community laughed at until it really hit with the mass.

Obviously, something can come out of left field and surprise us. But what? We pretty much know what's coming out in the next few months to half-year.

I'd rather bet against something and be realistic than hold out that some title is going to strike it big in the same way Nintendogs or Brain Training did, considering the market factors at the moment.

Otherwise, we can never speculate on something, if we keep pointing to some indefinite "out-of-the-blue" occurrence to happen.

EDIT: And for what it's worth, I'm not really into schadenfreude when it comes to Nintendo. I think the 3DS will be healthy... I want it to be healthy. But it's hard to see it becoming another DS.

 

[Count Dookkake]

If I weren't at work I'd make Sony as Amy, Nintendo as the Doctor, and Microsoft as Rory.

What is this shit?

EDIT:

I thought it was a play on the episode Amy's Choice.

lol, no.

It's funny when people mistake a spoof for the original.

 

[ThatObviousUser]

What is this shit?

EDIT:



lol, no.

It's funny when people mistake a spoof for the original.

Amy's Choice >>>>> Sophie's Choice

 

[CosmicQueso]

Obviously, something can come out of left field and surprise us. But what? We pretty much know what's coming out in the next few months to half-year. It isn't like some mystery game is going to appear out of thin air.

Price more than anything... if they go aggressive during Holiday and can do some things with 3DS during the Wii U launch they could continue to outpace NDS.

N is going to have to try harder with 3DS than they ever have before because of all of the competition from tablets and mobile for sure. Prices will have to fall because of it.

One of the pieces that does concern me, however, is how much share Nintendo has of that 3DS market (it's higher than it was on NDS) despite 3rd parties having more releases on the 3DS at the same point in time than was seen on NDS. It just makes the system that much more reliant on Mario and other first party games having the long legs they've had historically. And, since Nintendo does not like dropping prices on games like Kart and Mario, I don't know that they can pull that off this time.

 

[Count Dookkake]

Amy's Choice >>>>> Sophie's Choice

Irrelevant.

 

[grimshawish]

What is this shit?

A show about soufflés as it happens.

 

[specialguy]

sorry i dont want to read back several pages to where i last left off, no new hardware? ps3/wii numbers?

 

[Tobor]

Amy's Choice >>>>> Sophie's Choice

Considering you didn't know Sophie's Choice existed a few hours ago, I doubt seriously this is an informed opinion.

 

[Joseph Flemming]

Price more than anything... if they go aggressive during Holiday and can do some things with 3DS during the Wii U launch they could continue to outpace NDS.

N is going to have to try harder with 3DS than they ever have before because of all of the competition from tablets and mobile for sure. Prices will have to fall because of it.

One of the pieces that does concern me, however, is how much share Nintendo has of that 3DS market (it's higher than it was on NDS) despite 3rd parties having more releases on the 3DS at the same point in time than was seen on NDS. It just makes the system that much more reliant on Mario and other first party games having the long legs they've had historically. And, since Nintendo does not like dropping prices on games like Kart and Mario, I don't know that they can pull that off this time.

Well, what we do know is that the 3DS is currently tracking higher than the DS LTD. We also know that they have a Pokemon game coming for the DS, but with some slick marketing coupling it with the 3DS they can get a bump. Of course we are going into the Holiday season which will naturally bump the system, so I think it just comes down to marketing. If they can launch the Miiverse update close to the Wii U, or at least advertise that service is coming you might see some synergy between the Wii U launch.

Be mystified as Reggie goes on morning talk shows and promote both products hand in hand. Be amazed as they aggressively advertise Hulu finally launching, and talk about the "3DS XL is perfect for Netflix and Hulu watching with 90% bigger screens!"

I expect Kart, NSMB2, OOT, and 3DLand to get bumps again.

 

[grimshawish]

Considering you didn't know Sophie's Choice existed a few hours ago, I doubt seriously this is an informed opinion.

CHOICE WARZ!
[Seriously though, seriously though?]

 

[jman2050]

The one red flag I have regarding Nintendo's business is that it seems to be getting far more Holiday-centric than usual over the past few years or so.

Not that that's necessarily a bad thing but it would be a regression from last generation where the hardware and software sold tremendously nearly year-round.

 

[Tobor]

CHOICE WARZ!
[Seriously though, seriously though?]

I don't really care, I just find it funny.

 

[Saint Gregory]

We already knew that.
Vita did less than TLS, which did less than 40k. creamsugar already covered it.

If John didn't know that creamsugar already covered that comparison then the numbers for TLS and Vita must be really close for it to have jumped out at both of them.

The one red flag I have regarding Nintendo's business is that it seems to be getting far more Holiday-centric than usual over the past few years or so.

Not that that's necessarily a bad thing but it would be a regression from last generation where the hardware and software sold tremendously nearly year-round.

Nintendo has no one to blame for that but themselves. They stopped releasing anything of note on the Wii outside of the holidays starting in 2008 and look at what they're doing with their 3DS schedule. We probably wouldn't have gotten NSMB2 in August if not for the XL launch.

 

[Exterminieren]

3DS can easily be a successful, healthy console without reaching DS heights.

 

[grimshawish]

3DS can easily be a successful, healthy console without reaching DS heights.

Long as it meets its number 1 function - offering a platform for Nintendo software, it should be alright.

 

[Stumpokapow]

At 40k, the Last Story would be the 4th best selling XSeed game ever by NPD/retail figures; only Valhalla Knights 1 and 2 and Brave Story would be higher. With even the smallest legs it'd definitely be able to vie for #1.

Of course, I get the impression that XSeed does very well on PSN so from an overall sales perspective maybe not, who knows, but either way I wanted to provide some context in terms of retail

 

[FoneBone]

At 40k, the Last Story would be the 4th best selling XSeed game ever by NPD/retail figures; only Valhalla Knights 1 and 2 and Brave Story would be higher. With even the smallest legs it'd definitely be able to vie for #1.

Of course, I get the impression that XSeed does very well on PSN so from an overall sales perspective maybe not, who knows, but either way I wanted to provide some context in terms of retail

Yeah, that actually strikes me as a pretty solid number for a niche-ish title, given how late in Wii's lifecycle it's being released.

 

[see5harp]

Amy's Choice >>>>> Sophie's Choice

Burn in hell along with The Killers and linux.

 

[Hero]

It's a ~25% decrease from last August. The NPDs this year have also been pretty low and sub 200k. For a platform still only a couple years old it shouldn't be declining in sales, there should be a strong growth period now with there being more software out and more awareness of its existence, but there's not. If not "done", then it's in a noticeable decline which isn't a good sign when you're only like 1/3 into the system's life. You're going to defend every aspect of the big N regardless Plinko but how do you explain this.


See, slimer knows. I'm not nuts

Are you seriously comparing sales of a non-holiday month to the same month last year when the system received a massive 33% price drop?

If you are serious and not trolling what do you think matters more, hardware sold in August or hardware sold in November and December?

 

[creid]

Looks like KH3D was really 200k+:

The NPD Group confirmed to Siliconera: “[Nintendo’s data] does not include the Mark of Mastery edition. It does increase the 180K number significantly.”

When we pressed further, we were told: “It pushes the number well beyond 200k.”

http://www.siliconera.com/2012/09/07/actually-kingdom-hearts-3d-sold-over-200000-copies-in-the-u-s/

 

[Hero]

Looks like KH3D was really 200k+:



http://www.siliconera.com/2012/09/07/actually-kingdom-hearts-3d-sold-over-200000-copies-in-the-u-s/

Huh, that's kind of interesting. Wonder how well beyond 200K they mean. Probably 210K at least?

Looks like Ducky has to edit his OP again.

 

[DR2K]

Well beyond 200K, good for KH.

 

[Little Green Yoda]

No one saw that happening with the NDS either, until it happened. And the Wii was something the publishing community laughed at until it really hit with the mass.

The situations may not be identical but this reminds me of people expecting some dark horse game coming out of nowhere to save the Vita just because MH was such a successful surprise hit for the PSP.

I refuse to believe the 3DS will have a DS-like explosion of sales without a price drop. More competition, worse economy, and higher prices are all working against a repeat scenario.