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NPD August 2012 Sales Results [Up3: Sleeping Dogs]

P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Nirolak said:
NPD counts bundles and special editions:

**(includes CE, GOTY editions, bundles, etc. but not those bundled with hardware)

The report companies get those is by SKU.
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You're right--my mistake.

KalBalboa said:
I'm glad Lego Batman is doing so well. I really need to pick it up sometime.
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You should pick it up. It's the best Lego game yet.
 
E

Exterminieren

Banned
Plinko said:
Exactly. People need to keep remembering this.

Nintendo's #1 problem right now is not having games for 3DS that draw in casuals. DS had the big Brain Training craze and Nintendogs was incredibly popular at the time as well. They just haven't invented anything new to do the same thing for 3DS.
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The problem is that the blue ocean has well and truly become red.

Personally, I could see 3DS reaching GBA levels, though stretched out over a longer period of time. That would be a solid result, and a basis on which far more can be firmly built than the DS boom.
 
G

grimshawish

Banned
Hero said:
Nintendo really needs to kill the DS here in the west.
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Keep reducing 3DS price and push the B/C I suppose.
3DS Lite revision could be a good thing to do early next year; go hand in hand with the XL.

It does suggest that the 'iOS/tablet' argument isn't quite on the ball mind. NoA have things to get busy doing, possibly their waiting to kill it post Pokemon this holiday, who knows.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Skiesofwonder said:
I don't think the 3DS can draw in those casuals anymore. There is too much competition for their time and money nowadays.
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I agree. That's why I keep saying people need to temper their expectations for handheld sales now. Expecting DS-like sales is pure craziness.
 
J

Juken

Member
If I were Nintendo I'd treat the casuals as gone and double up my efforts in keeping the kids around.

Nintendo handhelds were fine before the big DS casual boom. But now you keep hearing reports about kids' most wanted Christmas gifts being tablets/Ipads/etc. And my own experience travelling is in line with this - lots of little kids on planes playing games on mobile devices.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
Hero said:
Okay. So before making blanket statements in a month that you've already conceded to not matter as much why not wait until the holidays are over to analyze how likely or unlikely it will be for Nintendo to reach their projections?
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Because this is a discussion thread? We can no longer project into the future now? Everything we say is obviously not fact but our opinions and in my opinion nintendo needs much better sales during the year outside of the holidays to meet their lofty goals
 
AHA-Lambda

AHA-Lambda

Member
Opiate said:
From what we can tell -- which is mostly anecdotal or from reports from publishers -- the PC space is flourishing. iOS is also doing well.

The struggles appear to be localized primarily around Sony/MS/Nintendo.
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This, much of the trouble comes from the $60 AAA market.
 
L

lunchwithyuzo

Banned
Kingdom Hearts 1st NPD handheld sales:

Chain of Memories: 540k (1m+ ltd)
358 / 2 days: 201k (900k+ ltd)
Birth by Sleep: 225k (340k ltd)
Re:Coded: under 195k? (help?!)
Dream, Drop, Distance: 201k-239k
 
H

Hero

Member
metalslimer said:
Because this is a discussion thread? We can no longer project into the future now? Everything we say is obviously not fact but our opinions and in my opinion nintendo needs much better sales during the year outside of the holidays to meet their lofty goals
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I'm not saying that Nintendo doesn't need better sales outside of the holidays but you're completing missing the point of what I was addressing with Heavy's post.
 
L

Last Hearth

Member
Mr. B Natural said:
The failure of Sleeping Dogs signifies that the Open World GTA style genre is officially in "Alpha Dog Mode", like every other genre out there. Either you're an alpha dog IP that can sell millions and millions (for doing what everyone else is doing) or you don't bother.

If you're horror game doesn't start with Resident and end with Evil, then stay home.
If you're RTS doesn't rime with Far Raft, then stay home.
If you're platformer doesn't have a plumber, don't bother.
etc and etc and or etc.

Some games will get through (like 2 a gen at most) but the genre as a whole has no health anymore. It's sickly and only the alpha dogs can survive on any reliable basis (enough to warrant investment).

Why did we get so many fps's this gen? Because the alpha dogs were not established yet. That's changed, I believe, as well. COD used to leave scraps just like mario use to leave scraps during the nes and snes era. Not anymore.
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I agree with this analysis, with a top quality title *and* a monstrously large marketing campaign, you maybe able to push a new IP into that alpha dog status. Like Gears in this gen. But it's a huge risk, because you need the game to be really well received both by reviewers (90+ metacritic) and word of mouth. If your game is not quite at that level, then you've wasted you huge marketing budget on promoting a dud, the game itself will probably still sell well due to the marketing, but the IP is still not alpha dog, which means future sales for sequels are not guaranteed.
 
C

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
lunchwithyuzo said:
Kingdom Hearts 1st NPD handheld sales:

Chain of Memories: 540k (1m+ ltd)
358 / 2 days: 201k (900k+ ltd)
Birth by Sleep: 225k (340k ltd)
Re:Coded: under 195k? (help?!)
Dream, Drop, Distance: 201k-239k
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You are many 10Ks off with BBS and Re:coded. Kingdom Hearts games tend to have good legs.
 
S

Saint Gregory

Member
Dalthien said:
John already told you (hinted strongly) what KH3D sold.
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That's pretty crazy if the sales between BBS and 3D are that consistent but we've already seen that scenario play out with game series in the media crate threads. SE needs to realize tht they've stagnated the series and no new subscribers are signing up for it anymore, it's just the same 250,000 or so hardcores in each territory who've been dedicated enough to follow the nonsensical storyline from platform to platform.
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Ah, just checked a curiosity on Amazon, about Lego: Lord of the Rings. Finally, DS and 3DS SKUs are priced equally, both 29.99$. PSVita version is priced 39.99$. All the other Lego games released on 3DS were priced 39.99, this one has a good probability doing relatively (I mean, compared to the other SKUs) much better than the others. It's another game for 3DS priced lower than 30$, maybe someone is understanding something in the end.
 
T

Taurus

Member
ohlawd said:
Can I dream and say I want Paper Mario to sell 400k+ in its first NPD? Epic Mickey with 200k. Assassin's Creed with 250k. Everything else can bomb.
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Assassin's Creed Vita will be a major bomb. Install base is very small and it won't move systems because everyone interested will get the "real" home console version. 250$ is way too much for this combo.
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Dalthien said:
John already told you (hinted strongly) what KH3D sold.
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Yeah, this means it sold exactly as well as Birth by Sleep. In the end, I was right saying it would have done better than 200k!
I WAS SO WRONG LOL
And this means one of the 3DS XL SKU did less than 45k.
 
O

Opus Angelorum

Member
And a problem for Sony (in trying to encourage Cross-Buy from third parties) is that the sales of these titles could well determine the future of it.

If all three 'fail', it will have an effect on any future possibilities and may leave Sony to lead the initiative entirely on its own.
 
D

DEADEVIL

Member
Dynoro said:
Yes; the sales are roughly equal in both regions (as I said as well) but because the USA games market is substantially larger than the UK so Sleeping Dogs did disproportionally better in the UK or disproportionally worse in the USA comparatively speaking.

The US market was worth 21.6bn USD in 2011
The UK market was worth 3.2bn GBP in the same year

The game sold approximately the same in one market what it did in a market a quarter the size in a similar time period. If it sold okay in the US it was absolutely a hit in the UK. Conversely if it sold okay in the UK it was a flop in the US.
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Wait what? You keep telling yourself that every game that sells ok in both the UK and the US is a megahit in the UK and a flop in the States.

Simply not the case
 
D

DEADEVIL

Member
Mr. B Natural said:
The failure of Sleeping Dogs signifies that the Open World GTA style genre is officially in "Alpha Dog Mode", like every other genre out there. Either you're an alpha dog IP that can sell millions and millions (for doing what everyone else is doing) or you don't bother.

If you're horror game doesn't start with Resident and end with Evil, then stay home.
If you're RTS doesn't rime with Far Raft, then stay home.
If you're platformer doesn't have a plumber, don't bother.
etc and etc and or etc.

Some games will get through (like 2 a gen at most) but the genre as a whole has no health anymore. It's sickly and only the alpha dogs can survive on any reliable basis (enough to warrant investment).

Why did we get so many fps's this gen? Because the alpha dogs were not established yet. That's changed, I believe, as well. COD used to leave scraps just like mario use to leave scraps during the nes and snes era. Not anymore.
Click to expand...


Nah, it's simple. If you have a new IP like Sleeping Dogs and you release it in a slow summer month without a massive ad campaign that follows, it's simply going to ride to what it was meant to do under those circumstances. The internet hardcore who follows these games and knows the pedagree of the game is going to carry you so far.

But here's a nother no-brainer, don't launch the same day as another hit (Darksiders 2) and believe theres enough consumer dollar out there for you to completely break through. Time will tell if the game is a 'failure' or just the beginning of a long standing franchise ala Saints Row.
 
J

Juken

Member
DEADEVIL said:
Wait what? You keep telling yourself that every game that sells ok in both the UK and the US is a megahit in the UK and a flop in the States.

Simply not the case
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No, he is saying that the US market is a lot larger - so despite selling around the same numbers, it was not equally successful in each territory.
 
D

donny2112

Member
DEADEVIL said:
Now THIS is where I agree and it's one of the reasons Pachter was absolutely right with his famous prediction that put him on the map.

Had WiiU released last year or even the year prior it would have made a killing.
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Pachter's Wii HD was a Wii that output in HD. That has never been released. Wii U is not that system. Pachter's "famous prediction" was "famously lambasted," and for good reason.

DEADEVIL said:
No one has exact numbers and even the difference on VG is pretty small,
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Site's numbers are banned for a reason.
 
T

test_account

XP-39C²
Father_Brain said:
Isn't it the same player base for both versions?
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Yep, you can play PS3 against Vita and vice verca :)

I dont expect to see the Vita version charting because it is free with the PS3 version. I assume that a large portion of Vita owners already own a PS3. Some will probably buy the Vita version only however due to the price difference ($60 VS $40).
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
Plinko said:
Source? Because we have hard facts that show us purchasing power has dropped sharply because of skyrocketing food, energy, and medical costs. That is a lot of extra money spent toward necessities now.
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We have "hard facts" that the video game industry, fueled by the height of the DS and the Wii, peaked in 2008 and was strong in 2009, despite the coinciding recession. I really don't see the rationale for blaming ailing handhelds on "the economy."

Sure, economic factors may have influence. But I still don't see how anyone can believe that iOS and Android devices aren't eating away at the dedicated handheld market.

As for home consoles again these are August totals.

2002 = 710K
2003 = 540K
2004 = 538K
2005 = 440K
2006 = 516K
2007 = 1014K
2008 = 977K
2009 = 808K
2010 = 827K (+PS2)
2011 = 716K (+PS2)
2012 = 403K

The last time they were similarly low was in 2005, at the end of a generation - a "normal" ~5 year generation. Kinect may have managed to stave off generational fatigue momentarily, but it's clearly set in after 7-8 years.
Phoenician_Viking said:
I don´t think that the slumping console sales is due to generation fatigue. I don´t think that we will see the high numbers that we saw this gen. I really doubt that consoles will sell 200+ million come next generation.

The tablets also compete with consoles. People would spend the little money that they have on all in one devices that they can take everywhere, like smartphones and tablets.
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I don't know if we'll return to 1M home consoles selling in August, nor do I think we'll necessarily see the home systems selling 200M+. But whether that does or doesn't happens I see it being a consequence of what the Wii market does more than anything else, and do see new systems returning the market to healthier levels. The traditional or mainstream gamer still exists, I believe.
 
kunonabi

kunonabi

Member
Little Green Yoda said:
I'm not sure "barren" is the best term but I don't think those are system sellers at all. Certainly not to the extent of a 2D Mario or Animal Crossing.
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I know this is sale thread but not every game needs to be a system seller. That mentality leads to the abysmal software situation the Wii ran into.
 
X

xbhaskarx

Member
Hardware:
Xbox 360: 193k (-37.3%)
3DS: Above 170K (last month minimum * 1.36 due to 36% increase from Nintendo PR), below 235K (last year). It is likely notably closer to 170K given Nintendo gave a specific percentage.
PS3: Above last month, below 193K (360 sold more)
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After this console generation is over, NPD needs to publish a book of brain teasers with all of these non-Xbox hardware numbers...
 
O

OldJadedGamer

Banned
test_account said:
Yep, you can play PS3 against Vita and vice verca :)

I dont expect to see the Vita version charting because it is free with the PS3 version. I assume that a large portion of Vita owners already own a PS3. Some will probably buy the Vita version only however due to the price difference ($60 VS $40).
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Interesting but since this is the first title to have 1:1 online play between the two systems, you can't make a good prediction on sales if we don't know the quality.
 
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