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[And_Gignac]

Damn, go go Yo-Kai Watch.

And supply constraints are always so anticlimatic.

I hope famitsu keeps reporting about supply levels in the next weeks because if they don't and ps4 goes down to Wii U levels the constrain excuse will be used forever on.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

We'll see, the Wii u was also "supply constrained" during it's launch. That doesn't mean much unless the demand actually far outstrips the supply, I'm not sure we have the evidence to imply that.

85% implies the PS4 was shipped reasonably accurately.

Famitsu said it was supply constrained. It doesn't get more explicit than that.

How much demand exceeds supply is yet to be seen I agree. I just find it hilarious at some people in the previous thread trying so hard and not accepting there were stock issues.

 

[test_account]

PS3s price was always mentioned as a problem and reason from the start (actually since it was announced) and the most apparent/popular argument when it came to explain its sales. So it´s really unlikely that most people just extrapolated those terrible launch sales without taking into account system sellers, revisions and a mainstream friendly price in future, which in my opinion is less than 30k yen.

Sure, i havnt said anything against that the price wasnt mentioned as a factor for the bad sales The price and the lack of games, plus heavy competition from the Wii were the factors for the initial bad PS3 sales. I think everyone acknowledged that indeed. All i'm saying is that from what i saw, few people exected early on that the PS3 would sell what it sold in total. If you doubt that, or if you saw anything other than what i saw, then that fine of course. I'm only telling you what i personally saw and remember.

By the way, i'm sure that you remember the earlier more long-term predictions about how bad the WiiU and the Vita would sell. Arguements like "i dont see any upcoming games that would change things a lot" and such. On the other side, you also had people who said that its best to wait and see, waiting for pricedrops and for the heavy hitters (games) to come to the systems. It didnt stop people from making the earlier long-term predictions, it was the same with the PS3.

You compared its first 12 months with its next 12 months into 27.Oct. 2008. But if you take just another step and take a look at 2009 ytd the sales almost doubled (1.764.531) thanks to a further price drop, revision and the release of its biggest system-seller FinalFantasy13.

Exactly, that is when the PS3 started to sell much better indeed But here we are into the 3rd year, then its not exactly an early prediction anymore.

 

[ohlawd]

dayum dem Harvest Moon numbers.

we getting that any time soon?

 

[Busaiku]

dayum dem Harvest Moon numbers.

we getting that any time soon?

I think A New Beginning was the same year, so it's possible Natsume gets this out by October or so.
Yeah, it was February - November for A New Beginning.

 

[ohlawd]

I think A New Beginning was the same year, so it's possible Natsume gets this out by October or so.
Yeah, it was February - November for A New Beginning.

fuckin' hope so. We're not that far into 2014 but I srsly need news on new 3DS shit. Sure the pubs are just holding out until the time is right but I'm uneasy anyway mang.

 

[Darius]

Exactly, that is when the PS3 started to sell much better indeed But here we are into the 3rd year, then its not exactly an early prediction anymore.

All predictions that were made pre-launch and in 2007 were made with no data for the future sales in the upcoming years, so really what´s your point?

 

[test_account]

All predictions that were made pre-launch and in 2007 were made with no data for the future sales in the upcoming years, so really what´s your point?

What you mention there is exactly my point Some people made long-term predictions about the PS3 sales with the data they had early on, and because the PS3 did pretty poorly to begin with, not everyone had faith that the sales would turn around for the better in a bigger way. People making long-term predictions early on about how a system will sell. Isnt that the whole arguement here? If not, what is your arguement?

 

[Principate]

Famitsu said it was supply constrained. It doesn't get more explicit than that.

How much demand exceeds supply is yet to be seen I agree. I just find it hilarious at some people in the previous thread trying so hard and not accepting there were stock issues.

Supply constrained is just a term which in itself is meaningless, if the PS4 could have sold an extra 5k outside of it's current numbers do you think that would have changed things? People can extrapolate all kinds of things from information like that.

It's a factor doesn't explain things either way especially considering you could still buy PS4's if you wanted them. We'll find out more next week, but I always find it strange when people use those terms as if it changes everything. It's like the snow or bad weather. It could have a major effect, it could have no effect at all, it doesn't outright infer either.

 

[Kandinsky]

JP got a new PS4 shipment correct?, just making sure.

 

[Jamix012]

Famitsu said it was supply constrained. It doesn't get more explicit than that.

How much demand exceeds supply is yet to be seen I agree. I just find it hilarious at some people in the previous thread trying so hard and not accepting there were stock issues.

For what it's worth, that's not hilarious at all, considering we had no other information at the time.

 

[Hero of Legend]

fuckin' hope so. We're not that far into 2014 but I srsly need news on new 3DS shit. Sure the pubs are just holding out until the time is right but I'm uneasy anyway mang.

Persona Q and Gardening Mama 2 were just announced over the past week or so for NA. Hopefully more are around the corner!

 

[Steel]

JP got a new PS4 shipment correct?, just making sure.

Famitsu said it was supply constrained. It doesn't get more explicit than that.

Just above your post.

 

[Bundy]

JP got a new PS4 shipment correct?, just making sure.

Are you preparing for next week's Media Create Sales thread?

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

For what it's worth, that's not hilarious at all, considering we had no other information at the time.

Um no, it was pretty hilarious, almost deja vu from the previous week. Oh and we had many retailers saying they were sold out but oh no, forget retailers, we should trust some posters from Japan.

Supply constrained is just a term which in itself is meaningless, if the PS4 could have sold an extra 5k outside of it's currentl numbers do you think that would have changed things? People can extrapolate all kinds of things from information like that.

It's a factor doesn't explain things either way especially considering you could still buy PS4's if you wanted them. We'll find out more next week, but I always find it strange when people use those terms as if it changes everything. It's like the snow or bad weather. It could have a major effect, it could have no effect at all, it doesn't outright infer either.

Its not meaningless because it pretty clearly states that the sales were limited by supply. Again I have said we don't know how much demand would of exceeded supply whether it was 5k or 50k but that doesn't alter the fact that it was supply constrained.

And no you couldn't buy PS4's if you wanted them. It would depend on if there was stock in your region.

Just above your post.

??

 

[L~A]

Well it's a Soul Sacrifice G not a fully fledged sequel, which is in works. But it might sell well, given that there's quite a few improvements.

For a MH-style game, isn't that basically the same thing? Most "sequels" in that particular subgenre are pretty much just the previous game with some new enemies/equipment added & a few quality of life improvements.

No, there's a proper sequel announced, but the game coming out soon is basically the SF version of Monster Hunter 4G. Which is why it'll be interesting to see how well it sell!

 

[Darius]

What you mention there is exactly my point Some people made long-term predictions about the PS3 sales with the data they had early on. People making long-term predictions early on about how a system will sell. Isnt that the whole arguement here? If not, what is your arguement?

Any educated guess would have taken into account the already mentioned things like the damaging high price in its first year, system sellers not yet launched, revisions (PSone, PStwo) and a mainstream friendly price in future. Looking back the price point was always a top topic when it came to PS3 in general and its slow start. So it´s simply contradictory to base a prediction of its lifetime sales to a simple linear extrapolation of launch period sales.

And could you please clarify what these predictions actually looked like?

 

[Kandinsky]

Are you preparing for next week's Media Create Sales thread?

Yes lol.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

The show is getting higher ratings every week, it managed to get a 6.3 recently.

omg

RISE THIS IS THE BEGINNING THE MILLION SELLER IN ME I NOW SET FREE

 

[boingball]

Every console is up, even the 360 and PSP with the exception of Wii U. Ouch.

For the PS4 the drop to Wii U regions now begins. Perhaps it will rise again in a year when hopefully some more interesting games (for Japan) will be released.

Vita down first time Y2Y, obviously there was the pricedrop last year. Still the numbers are not too bad, it seems to be consistently above 20k even without any releases. Unfortunately with only niche titles being released the ceiling is quite limited.

 

[ClearData]

How is it that Japan can provide its numbers for both hardware and software on a week-in and week-out basis and the NPD takes a whole month? And even then the numbers are skewed and obstructed. It just amazes me.

Sorry for the rant.

 

[Principate]

Um no, it was pretty hilarious, almost deja vu from the previous week. Oh and we had many retailers saying they were sold out but oh no, forget retailers, we should trust some posters from Japan.



Its not meaningless because it pretty clearly states that the sales were limited by supply. Again I have said we don't know how much demand would of exceeded supply whether it was 5k or 50k but that doesn't alter the fact that it was supply constrained.

And no you couldn't buy PS4's if you wanted them. It would depend on if there was stock in your region.



??

If it limits supply by 1 unit what does that actually mean? You need more information then simply the product was limited in supply when it sold a bad number to infer without the limited supply it would have sold much better. If a consumer that wanted a product was unable to get it that's a more meaningful "SOLD OUT" than if it was simply sold out at their local store but a store further away had it or they could buy it online.

One of those examples actively prevents a sale another may simply deters one, and maybe barely.

 

[Linkhero1]

I just wish software numbers were better. I'm sure the PS4 will have steady sales, but at the moment there aren't a lot of games that I think would have the interest of Japan.

 

[darkstar0155]

If it limits supply by 1 unit what does that actually mean? You need more information then simply the product was limited in supply when it sold a bad number to infer without the limited supply it would have sold much better. If a consumer that wanted a product was unable to get it that's a more meaningful "SOLD OUT" than if it was simply sold out at their local store but a store further away had it or they could buy it online.

One of those examples actively prevents a sale another may simply deters one, and maybe barely.

My thinking is similiar to yours, i find "supply constrained" only meaningful if there is a huge demand for the product, like for the ps2 and wii. the ps4 does not appear to have the hype/demand in japan that those two products had.

I find supply constrained to mean if you put a little effort in, you will probably be able to find one without to much hassle, but some stores are sold out.

 

[LegendofLex]

How is it that Japan can provide its numbers for both hardware and software on a week-in and week-out basis and the NPD takes a while month? And even then the numbers are skewed and obstructed. It just amazes me.

Because multi-platform titles control the software market in the U.S., and the best way to make them look good is to aggregate sales for the month (which hides the degree to which sales are front-loaded) and aggregate sales across all platforms for the top 10 lists.

 

[Rand6]

Vita starts selling less than last year.

That was expected. March 2014 will be worse than march 2013 for Vita and WiiU


Media Create numbers for 2013 :
Vita
Week 10 63581
Week 11 36028
Week 12 41073
Week 13 31795
Week 14 19328
Week 15 14112

WiiU
Week 10 9454
Week 11 9539
Week 12 11398
Week 13 22829
Week 14 14783
Week 15 9984

 

[gtj1092]

Sales will keep dropping no matter what for the ps4 even if demand is there because I very much doubt Sony is going to allocate 60k ps4s to Japan when the US is only getting about 70k a week currently based off Jan NPD.

 

[Steel]

??

Just pointing out that the information he was after was just above his post. Wasn't talking to you specifically.

 

[LiquidMetal14]

Knack's chizzled bosom strikes again.

 

[theprodigy]

How is it that Japan can provide its numbers for both hardware and software on a week-in and week-out basis and the NPD takes a while month? And even then the numbers are skewed and obstructed. It just amazes me.

Sorry for the rant.

just imagine if NPD didn't have leaks
it'd be more barren than PAL sales threads

 

[test_account]

Any educated guess would have taken into account the already mentioned things like the damaging high price in its first year, system sellers not yet launched, and a mainstream friendly price in future. Looking back the price point was always a top topic when it came to PS3 in general and its slow start. So it´s simply contradictory to base a prediction of its lifetime sales to a simple linear extrapolation of launch period sales.

And could you please clarify what these predictions actually looked like?

Yes, i think its best to wait and see until the different factors have happend (like pricedrops and bigger games being released etc.) before saying that a gaming system is "doomed" or not. I agree 100% with that But that doesnt change the fact that from what i saw and remember, many people didnt expect the PS3 to sell like it did. That is pretty much all i'm trying to say. The whole arguement started with that Psycho_Mantis basically saying that it wouldnt be wise to judge the PS4 sales early on. That is also what you are saying here, and i also agree to that, so we're actually all agreeing here on that point =)

About the predictions, they didnt necessarily have to say in specific something like "there is no way that the PS3 will end up selling 10+ million in Japan when its said and done", sorry if i made it seem like that earlier. Its not sure that most people completely ruled out 100% that the PS3 wouldnt start up selling noticeably better either, but from what i saw and remember, there wasnt exactly much confidence about the PS3 to start selling like it did, and end up with selling over 10 million units.

I have to be fair and say that i cant say for sure exactly what people were expected, but i can put it like this: If many people had confident in this, then they really didnt show it or speak much about it, at least not from what i saw and remember. I saw comments more about "ouch, that is low PS3 sales" and such. So that makes me believe that not many people in the Media Creat threads expected early on that the PS3 would end up selling 10+ million units in Japan when it was all said and done.

If i had time, i would look more carefully through older Media Create threads and see if i could find some discussions about if PS3 sales would increase noticeably or not, but there are so many posts, so it might take some time to find those exact discussions (i tried to look quickly through some older threads, but i couldnt find anything in that short time i was loooking. I did however find some older posts from me, that was kinda funny to see hehe =)). Sony was already losing money on each sold PS3 at launch, so a big price-cut seemed unlikely then. Its kinda like the same with WiiU now, it seems unlikely that a bigger price-cut will come anytime soon.

EDIT: I added some text.

 

[michaelius]

That was expected. March 2014 will be worse than march 2013 for Vita and WiiU


Media Create numbers for 2013 :
Vita
Week 10 63581
Week 11 36028
Week 12 41073
Week 13 31795
Week 14 19328
Week 15 14112

Looks like Vita will be staying up YOY if Diva 2 and SSD give at least 10k boost on their weeks.

 

[Kandinsky]

Just pointing out that the information he was after was just above his post. Wasn't talking to you specifically.

I was asking about new shipment as in for this week, for next week's report tbh

 

[Mpl90]

I was asking about new shipment as in for this week, for next week's report tbh

Last week saw another PS4 Limited Pack shipment (the last, since this week there's the normal PS4 being available). Low, according to the first day sell-throughs blog, but it had a supplementary shipment.

 

[SwiftDeath]

PS4 drop is quite awful although there does appear to have been stock issues

Next week will be the start of a standard baseline most likely

And about PS4 stock WW, Chinese New Year was Jan 31. this year. That's what 2 weeks of the chinese production line turned off? I wouldn't use February shipments of consoles to determine average shipments going forward.

Not that I expect Sony to ship much in Japan though but the shipments to the rest of the world should pick up

 

[Jamix012]

Um no, it was pretty hilarious, almost deja vu from the previous week. Oh and we had many retailers saying they were sold out but oh no, forget retailers, we should trust some posters from Japan.



Its not meaningless because it pretty clearly states that the sales were limited by supply. Again I have said we don't know how much demand would of exceeded supply whether it was 5k or 50k but that doesn't alter the fact that it was supply constrained.

And no you couldn't buy PS4's if you wanted them. It would depend on if there was stock in your region.



??

Taking data from a small chain of shops is pretty much as indicative as anecdotal evidence. Why I'd even go so far as saying you were saying that Yodobashi during launch wasn't indicative of demand and now you're saying that a week later it should've be a clear indication that it's supply constrained? It's a little sad to be honest.

I'm more inclined to agree with the user you quoted in that supply constraint doesn't really mean a lot. It does seem to be the case that it wasn't entirely sold out so demand didn't exceed supply in all regions and that in itself can be a cause for concern. Even if it is supply constrained, there is no benefit to being supply constrained in Japan at the moment. It's clearly not in super high demand so people who were planning to buy a PS4 this week might not be as eager to buy one next week. Granted, I'm not pronouncing death upon the PS4, but if (with a shipment) it fails to push out a good number next week? It's gonna have a rough first 18 months or so.

 

[Takao]

No, there's a proper sequel announced, but the game coming out soon is basically the SF version of Monster Hunter 4G. Which is why it'll be interesting to see how well it sell!

I'm from the future: SSD won't sell well.

 

[B.O.O.M]

Woow, and so many people in the last thread were adamant that PS4 was NOT supply constrained.

There you go people, even Famitsu is saying its supply constrained.

That second shipment must of been real low.

I mean there were 40k PS4's left so 25k sold and that 25k was apparently 80-100% of the shipment. So what the second shipment was 25k - 31.25k. Lol. I can only assume Sony is shipping all the Ps4's to the thirsty West.

In this very thread we have few who are still going on about supply not being constrained because it doesn't fit their own unique definition of the term...this is after Famitsu said the system is supply constrained and also when a guy who works in the field gave a nice explanation in the previous thread

go figure :S

OT: How the Fk did WiiU actually manage to go 'down' Week over Week?! I mean everything else went up other than PS4 which is understandable since last week was the launch week. But WiiU somehow managed to go down...even the 360 went up! lol

 

[Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule]

Wii U rise

 

[QaaQer]

I think the last Harvest Moon game being so good (and commercially successful) helped a lot. But there's probably more marketing to also buttress that fact. It also has a ton of new customisation features and seems to be expanding on the last game in all the right ways.

and the fact that there are so few games that appeal to the female demographic means games like Harvest Moon can stand out easily. I'm really really happy that at least one system offers something different and cultivates different audiences.

I scratch my head at western devs. I mean aside from The Sims, which is wildly profitable, what console/handheld games target females in the West? Gogo Harvest Moon!

 

[Darius]

About the predictions, they didnt necessarily have to say in specific something like "there is no way that the PS3 will end up selling 10+ million in Japan when its said and done",

Ok, looking back we have to keep in mind that PS1 and PS2 were the barometer most people based their opinion of good/bad sales and comments on. I don´t think that PS3 selling less than half of either of those consoles in 8 years would have been described any less of a disaster in 2007. After 7-8 years expectations and perceptions seem to have changed... Interestingly enough this shift of "perception" happened a lot quicker when it comes to PSP->PSV atleast thats the impression in these MC threads some users are trying to push forward . In the end, while there were some obvious factors that could have been considered when making a prediction back then in 2006/7, I doubt anyone expected that it would take so long until PS3s successor would launch, it´s likely that one of the reasons that it took so long were the bad first years.

 

[TheChaos0]

Looks like Vita will be staying up YOY if Diva 2 and SSD give at least 10k boost on their weeks.

The only problem is that PjD2 coming out on PS3 at the same time but then again, it's a handheld series so Vita version should do better than PS3 one. I'm quite interested in how it will perform.

 

[allan-bh]

How much demand exceeds supply is yet to be seen I agree.

You don't know about that.

 

[-Pyromaniac-]

WTF YO, THEY ALREADY GOT DAT HARVESTMOON? NATSUME COME ON BREHZ BRING DAT ISHHHH OVERRRRRRRRRRR.

Spoiler

I want it.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Taking data from a small chain of shops is pretty much as indicative as anecdotal evidence. Why I'd even go so far as saying you were saying that Yodobashi during launch wasn't indicative of demand and now you're saying that a week later it should've be a clear indication that it's supply constrained? It's a little sad to be honest.

I'm more inclined to agree with the user you quoted in that supply constraint doesn't really mean a lot. It does seem to be the case that it wasn't entirely sold out so demand didn't exceed supply in all regions and that in itself can be a cause for concern. Even if it is supply constrained, there is no benefit to being supply constrained in Japan at the moment. It's clearly not in super high demand so people who were planning to buy a PS4 this week might not be as eager to buy one next week. Granted, I'm not pronouncing death upon the PS4, but if (with a shipment) it fails to push out a good number next week? It's gonna have a rough first 18 months or so.

Yodabashi is small? Lol
Cut the bullshit. I never said Yodobashi was an accurate representation of the the situation either. I'm just saying there were many conflicting reports from actual retailers. I think I rather trust them than some posters in Japan.

You don't know about that.

Demand has to be greater than supply if its supply constrained -___- (supply being this shipment)

In this very thread we have few who are still going on about supply not being constrained because it doesn't fit their own unique definition of the term...this is after Famitsu said the system is supply constrained and also when a guy who works in the field gave a nice explanation in the previous thread

go figure :S

OT: How the Fk did WiiU actually manage to go 'down' Week over Week?! I mean everything else went up other than PS4 which is understandable since last week was the launch week. But WiiU somehow managed to go down...even the 360 went up! lol

I cannot believe there are people doubting when Famitsu are the ones that said it. Well tbh I'm not that surprised after seeing who they are.

 

[saichi]

PS4 RELEASE SCHEDULE

03/19 - Nobunaga's Ambition Online
03/20 - MGSV Demo

04/14 - FFXIV ARR Online
04/?? - Natural Doctrine

05/01 - Child of Light (PSN)
05/22 - notFamous
05/29 - Trials Fusion

06/05 - Wolfenstein

I think I'm gonna frame this and put it on a wall.


For comparison:

Wii U:

12/13 - Romance of the Three Kingdoms 12
12/20 - Call of Duty: Black Ops II
12/20 - ESPN Sports Connection
12/20 - Family Party: 30 Great Games Obstacle Arcade
12/26 - Tank! Tank! Tank!

01/31 - Fist of the North Star: Ken's Rage 2

02/07 - Wii Street U (eShop)
02/21 - Monster Hunter 3G Packet Relay Tool
02/21 - Tank! Tank! Tank!
02/27 - Nano Assault Neo (eShop)

03/20 - EarthBound (Virtual Console)
03/20 - Need for Speed: Most Wanted U
03/28 - Game & Wario
03/30 - Dragon Quest X Online

WiiU had more games released in the same time frame than than PS4? What?

 

[allan-bh]

Demand has to be greater than supply if its supply constrained -___- (supply being this shipment)

Supply constrained doesn't mean that can't be found. You don't know if demand is bigger than shipment.

 

[Principate]

Supply constrained doesn't mean that can't be found. You don't know if demand is bigger than shipment.

Indeed but that is an important distinction if you are to infer the sales would be significantly greater if the product was not supply constrained.

 

[theprodigy]

I cannot believe there are people doubting when Famitsu are the ones that said it. Well tbh I'm not that surprised after seeing who they are.

you're one to talk

 

[saichi]

I hope famitsu keeps reporting about supply levels in the next weeks because if they don't and ps4 goes down to Wii U levels the constrain excuse will be used forever on.

I'm pretty sure it will live on like heat wave