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[SwiftDeath]

I'm pretty sure it will live on like heat wave

Did Famitsu ever qualify the heat wave as potentially affecting sales though?

 

[darkstar0155]

I'm pretty sure it will live on like heat wave

ha! classic!

 

[saichi]

Did Famitsu ever qualify the heat wave as potentially affecting sales though?

no but Famitsu qualified snow storm as one for DKCTF.

 

[allan-bh]

no but Famitsu qualified snow storm as one for DKCTF.

Was Media Create.

 

[SwiftDeath]

no but Famitsu qualified snow storm as one for DKCTF.

Wouldn't a snow storm be far more likely to cause a retail contraction than a heat wave? Besides it is a far more legitimate claim if the tracker is the one to give it rather than some poster in a media create thread.

 

[RedAssedApe]

thirsty euros should hopefully be able to get satiated now that Japan launch is over.

 

[theprodigy]

no but Famitsu qualified snow storm as one for DKCTF.

on the other hand Chart-Track (is that the UK one?) did mention heat waves in one random summer week last year
so we got both ends covered! /s

 

[Coxy]

Initial shipment was 380k. sales are 380k, shouldnt take much to figure that one out but here we are

 

[dolemite]

no but Famitsu qualified snow storm as one for DKCTF.

I'm wondering what a Godzilla attack would do to the sales.

 

[DaBoss]

Some people are so vested in trying to determine whether the PS4 is supply constrained or not "supply constrained" with their own definitions it is just becoming silly. It is just a semantics argument.

Famitsu has said that the PS4 is supply constrained. They didn't say it is pretty much sold out or something. It is having stock issues at some places while not having issues in others.

That is still being supply constrained. In the end, maybe the amount is insignificant, but that doesn't really matter because there is no way in determining what the difference would be.

And with all of that said...the PS4 being supply constrained or not doesn't even matter in the long run lol.

Initial shipment was 380k. sales are 380k, shouldnt take much to figure that one out but here we are

There was a second shipment.

We don't know how large though.

 

[Hellraider]

I'm wondering what a Godzilla attack would do to the sales.

People would have to stay at home to be safe. They would order some videogames to play. Sales would definitely rise in such situation.

 

[Chris1964]

Famitsu has said that the PS4 is supply constrained. They didn't say it is pretty much sold out or something. It is having stock issues at some places while not having issues in others.

That is still being supply constrained. In the end, maybe the amount is insignificant, but that doesn't really matter because there is no way in determining what the difference would be.

Next weeks will show how important stock issues are. Famitsu didn't talk for short supply at launch by the way, just for last week (sellthrough was showing that in the end).

If supply problem is so big as some think hardware will have great holds weeks.

If not it will not happen.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

Next week we will see the 'Regular" ps4 number trend in Japan and the NPD. And that's not including the potential for ChartTrack/GFK data

Sales Age, I hope you're ready.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Next weeks will show how important stock issues are. Famitsu didn't talk for short supply at launch by the way, just for last week (sellthrough was showing that in the end).

If supply problem is so big as some think hardware will have great holds weeks.

If not it will not happen.

What would be great holds though for reference do you think?

 

[Chris1964]

What would be great holds though for reference do you think?

PSP had supply problems in 2004. January 2005 sales were the definition of 'demand exceeding supply' at previous weeks.

Wii U had supply problems especially with premium model at first 2 weeks. We still laugh with January 2013 sales.

 

[Mpl90]

In the last thread, I made a post with the first to second week drops. But I wanted to do something a bit more accurate, just to give a better context for next weeks PS4 performance.

First 10 weeks sales + first week / LTD for releases after the launch for each week which appeared in top 30 at debut (Famitsu)

PS2 (¥39.800) - Launch Date: March 4th, 2000

630.552
154.245 (-75.5%)
112.620 --> [PS2] Golf Paradise DX (T & E Soft) - 35.745 / 161.624 ; [PS2] I.Q. Remix+ (SCE) - 10.999 / 10.999
165.685 --> [PS2] Tekken Tag Tournament (Namco) - 214.753 / 457.339 ; [PS2] Dead or Alive 2 (Tecmo) - 158.506 / 341.363 ; [PS2] Driving Emotion Type-S (Square) - 46.575 / 106.174
119.430
75.704 --> [PS2] Gradius III + IV (Konami) - 29.497 / 84.703
74.350
58.151
58.151

Gamecube (¥25.000) - LD: September 14th, 2001
133.719
29.209 (-78.2%)
21.337
14.302
8.538
10.100
25.224 --> [GCN] Pikmin (Nintendo) - 101.299 / 502.996
19.891
18.073
19.019 --> [GCN] FIFA 2002: Road to World Cup (Square EA) - 4.166 / 4.166

Xbox (¥34.800) - LD: February 22nd, 2002
123.929
37.147 (-70%) --> [XBX] Metal Dungeon (Panther Software) - 5.605 / 12.174
10.930
7.924
5.005 --> [XBX] GunValkyrie (Sega) - 12.043 / 26.878
5.157
3.188
2.532
3.286 --> [XBX] Ultimate Fighting Championship: Tapout (Capcom) - 4.071 / 12.997
5.112 --> [XBX] Halo (Microsoft Game Studios) - 31.041 / 76.963

GBA - (¥9.800) - LD: March 21st, 2001
611.504
323.686 (-47.1%)
197.421
139.499
95.324
141.090 --> [GBA] GetBackers Dakkanoku: Jigoku no Scaramouche (Konami) - 13.016 / 18.714
141.091
88.872
70.875
71.334 --> [GBA] Final Fight One (Capcom) - 26.452 / 56.137

DS (¥15.000) - LD: December 2nd, 2004
441.485
181.231 (-59%)
220.295
252.919
173.915
132.117
58.988
47.291
42.255 --> [NDS] Yoshi Touch & Go (Nintendo) - 52.407 / 197.337
35.451

PSP (¥19.800 / ¥24.800 ) - LD: December 12th, 2004
166.074
81.355 (-51%) --> [PSP] Dynasty Warriors (Koei) - 56.425 / 286.284 ; [PSP] Metal Gear Acid (Konami) - 24.149 / 118.553 ; [PSP] Eiyuu Densetsu Gagharv Trilogy: Shiroki Majo (Bandai) - 21.147 / 103.834 ; [PSP] Doko Demo Issho (SCE) - 18.476 / 103.205
92.515
111.194 --> [PSP] Ape Escape: Academy (SCE) - 22.999 / 127.679
55.358
57.383
66.601
71.200 --> [PSP] Soukyuu no Fafner (Bandai) - 12.334 / 30.172 ; [PSP] Rengoku: The Tower of Purgatory (Hudson) - 11.940 / 45.305
51.883
52.644 --> [PSP] PoPoLoCrois Monogatari: Pietoro Ouji no Bouken (SCE) - 32.084 / 79.756

Xbox 360 (¥29.000 / ¥39.795) - LD: December 10th, 2005
62.135
12.320 (-80.2%)
7.315
12.755 --> [360] Dead or Alive 4 (Tecmo) - 62.603 / 108.618
8.655
4.620 --> [360] Enchanted Arms (From Software) - 12.858 / 20.233
; [360] Project Gotham Racing 3 (Microsoft Game Studios) - 10.623 / 25.058
2.762
2.095
2.022
1.463

PS3 (¥49.980 / ¥59.980) - LD: November 11th, 2006
88.443
43.378 (-51%)
37.261
30.467
43.597
70.557
92.122
60.891
67.620
33.492

Wii (¥25.000) - LD: December 2nd, 2006
371.936
109.068 (-70.7%)
101.956 --> [WII] Pokemon Battle Revolution (Pokemon Co.) - 60.310 / 352.123
284.648
121.510
146.553 --> [WII] Dragon Ball Z: Budokai Tenkaichi 2 (Bandai Namco) - 42.501 / 165.969
96.975
80.514 --> [WII] Excite Truck (Nintendo) - 20.939 / 81.189
81.381
75.173

3DS (¥25.000) - LD: February 26th, 2011*
374.764
209.623 ( -44.1%)
96.463
61.394
51.095 --> [3DS] Gundam: The 3D Battle (Bandai Namco) {2011.03.24} - 19.566 / 64.120
42.979 --> [3DS] Pro Baseball Family Stadium 2011 (Bandai Namco) {2011.03.31} - 13.234 / 44.686 ; [3DS] Naruto Shippuden 3D: The New Era (Takara Tomy) {2011.03.31} - 7.066 / 36.575 ; [3DS] BlazBlue: Continuum Shift II (Arc System Works) {2011.03.31} - 5.550 / 15.632
32.910
28.252 --> [3DS] Pilotwings Resort (Nintendo) {2011.04.14} - 27.729 / 92.686 ; [3DS] Pro Baseball Spirits 2011 (Konami) {2011.04.14} - 12.071 / 50.209
23.038
28.413

PSV (¥24.980 / ¥29.980) - LD: December 17th, 2011*
324.859
72.479 ( -77.7%)
42.648
42.915
18.361
15.219
18.942 --> [PSV] Tales of Innocence R <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2012.01.26} (¥5.980) - 47.312 / 71.463
17.141 --> [PSV] Ragnarok Odyssey <ACT> (GungHo Online Entertainment) {2012.02.02} (¥5.985) - 31.763 / 65.138
13.939 --> [PSV] Gravity Rush <ADV> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2012.02.09} (¥5.980) - 40.466 / 85.287
12.309 --> [PSV] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV: Zennin Shiboudesu <ADV> (Chunsoft) {2012.02.16} (¥6.090) - 6.133 / 6.133

Wii U (¥26.250 / ¥31.500) - LD: December 8th, 2012
308.570
130.653 ( -57.7%)
122.356
76.760
70.662
21.489
16.635
12.335
11.714 --> [WIU] Fist of the North Star: Ken's Rage 2 <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) {2013.01.31} (¥8.190) - 6.241 / 11.301
11.092

Right now
PS4 LD: (¥41.979 / ¥46.179) - February 22nd, 2014
322.083
52.697 (-83.6%)
??? --> PS4 Normal SKU
??? -->
??? --> Nobunaga's Ambition Online; MGSV Paid Demo
???
???
??? -->FFXIV: A Real Reborn - Online
???
???

Not putting launch titles yet, since I'd like to find where they're all collected, so I don't have to search each and every title again in the database.

___________________________________________________

Given the context, I'd like to give my personal forecast for next weeks.
PS4 third week could be the same as this week, just because the normal SKU is released, which means a bigger shipment for sure. So far, the new SKU isn't doing so hot on Amazon, but I'm still expecting 60,000 again, if not 70,000.
Week 4 will see a big drop, around 20-30,000. Week 5 could see another drop, but not as severe as the one from 3 to 4, thanks to MGSV, which should help in this sense. From Week 6 to Week 10, it'll drop further and further. I fear FFXIV won't help in selling consoles. It'll sell, no doubt, but a big part will certainly be through PSN, just like what happened with DQX last March. I don't know if it'll go under 10,000 units sold already during these 10 weeks, if at all for this year; it could stay at 10,000 / 11,000 for a little while, and Golden Week will help for sure (unless it's like Vita back in 2012: a console that has such a low appeal that not even an Holiday helps its sales). With the current lineup, it's inevitable to see the console going down. Maybe not under 10,000, but it'll go down, and it's possible it goes under 10,000 units sold weekly.

PS4 needs further announcements, and for this year. The outlook is worse than bleak right now. I repeat, for this year. 2015 should have the three big ones, so next year it'll have big content.

EDIT: Added prices

 

[RalchAC]

Really awesome post Mpl90. It deserves its own thread imo. It'd be interesting to see how things develop compared to other systems.

Shame Gravity Rush only sold 85k units LTD. It deserves a lot more

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Some people are so vested in trying to determine whether the PS4 is supply constrained or not "supply constrained" with their own definitions it is just becoming silly. It is just a semantics argument.

Famitsu has said that the PS4 is supply constrained. They didn't say it is pretty much sold out or something. It is having stock issues at some places while not having issues in others.

That is still being supply constrained. In the end, maybe the amount is insignificant, but that doesn't really matter because there is no way in determining what the difference would be.

And with all of that said...the PS4 being supply constrained or not doesn't even matter in the long run lol.

There was a second shipment.

We don't know how large though.

Thank you for this post.

Well we know Knack sold between 80-100% and 40k PS4's were available from the previous shipment so as the shipment is somewhere between 25-31k.

 

[Mpl90]

Comgnet's chain of stores corner, as of March 5th, 2014

[PS3] Dark Souls - 283pt
[PS3] Dark Souls 2 - 132pt + 44pt (Collector's edition) = 176pt

[3DS] Hatsune Miku: Project Mirai - 74pt (Puchi Puchi Pack)
[PSV] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva f - 102pt
[PS3] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva F - 117pt
[3DS] Hatsune Miku: Project Mirai 2 - 65pt (Puchi Puchi pack) + 45pt = 110pt
[PSV] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva F 2nd - 105pt
[PS3] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva F 2nd - 67pt

[Wii] Samurai Warriors 3 - 52pt
[PS3] Samurai Warriors 3Z - 145pt
[PS3] Dynasty Warriors 8: Xtreme Legends - 33pt
[PS3] Dynasty Warriors Gundam: Reborn - 61pt
[PS3] Samurai Warriors 4 - 59pt

[PSP] 2nd Super Robot Taisen Z: Hakai Hen - 205pt (Special Box) + 79pt = 284pt
[PSP] 2nd Super Robot Taisen Z: Saisei Hen - 147pt
[PS3] 2nd Super Robot Taisen OG - 192pt
[3DS] Super Robot Taisen UX - 45pt
[PS3] 3rd Super Robot Taisen Z: Time Prison - 58pt
[PS3] 3rd Super Robot Taisen Z: Time Prison - 23pt

[PS3] Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance - 243pt + 37pt (Collector's) = 280pt
[PS3] Metal Gear Solid V: Paid Demo - 53pt
[PS4] Metal Gear Solid V: Paid Demo - 44pt

[PSV] Soul Sacrifice - 37pt
[PSV] Soul Sacrifice Delta - 31pt

 

[SwiftDeath]

There's quite a bit of software coming out on playstation systems. Just not the PS4

 

[QaaQer]

In the last thread,
....

PS4 needs further announcements, and for this year. The outlook is worse than bleak right now. I repeat, for this year. 2015 should have the three big ones, so next year it'll have big content.

thx for the work, interesting.

 

[BlackJace]

I wish the rest of the world got Super Robot Taisen games :/

 

[Sammy Samusu]

I wish the rest of the world got Super Robot Taisen games :/

Enjoy your Akiba Trip and Valhalla Knights.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Natural Doctrine should be there as well.

Dat PS3 haha actually held really well.

 

[Mpl90]

PS4 first week - 322,083
PS4 first week sell-through - 87.1%
PS4 first week shipment - 369,785
PS4 units left on shelves from first week - 47,702

PS4 first two weeks - 374.780
PS4 first two weeks sell-through - 80-100%
PS4 first two weeks shipment - between 374.780 to 468.475

PS4 second week sales - 52.697

Absolute minimum amount of units we can theorise were shipped = PS4 second week sales - PS4 units left on shelves from first week = 4,995

The shipment has been described as low. But, still, given how Yodobashi took 3 days to sell out the part of the second shipment allocated to their stores, saying that only 25-30k were shipped across all country paints an horrible picture for the future when expanded to the whole market, too much even considering everything. And "supply constrained" certainly means there weren't 90.000 units available across the country after second week sales, of course it was less than that. We've also read reports of people being able to find PS4 (before the normal SKU) in stores during last week / on Monday, so I'd say between 45,000 to 55,000 units were shipped in week 5. It would give a first two weeks shipment of 419,780 - 429,780, then a 89.3 - 87.2% sell-through for the same period, which can be considered as "supply constrained".

 

[Mpl90]

Natural Doctrine should be there as well.

Dat PS3 haha actually held really well.

Before the delay, the PS4 SKU (the one getting most preorders) was under the 100th place, then the delay was announced, and it went a bit higher (like it happens many times when a game is delayed), and now it's down to being 243rd. I wouldn't count on ND having an impact, unfortunately. Which is a shame, since it looks great and it has an outstanding cover.

 

[Raonak]

Fuck yes @ Vita rise.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Before the delay, the PS4 SKU (the one getting most preorders) was under the 100th place, then the delay was announced, and it went a bit higher (like it happens many times when a game is delayed), and now it's down to being 243rd. I wouldn't count on ND having an impact, unfortunately. Which is a shame, since it looks great and it has an outstanding cover.

I hope it does well depending on if its good or bad. I'm just sayin its releasing around that time and you've listed plenty of titles that I am sure ND will outsell.

 

[Thorgal]

I wish the rest of the world got Super Robot Taisen games :/

20+ different company's who each have to give their consent to allow Banpresto to use their IP makes that utterly impossible

 

[Haines]

Vita is still getting stomped by the 3ds which has great software coming.

 

[BlackJace]

Is Natural Doctrine the strategy RPG? If so, I will buy it at a high price.

20+ different company's who each have to give their consent to allow Banpresto to use their IP makes that utterly impossible

Even just one would be nice, the ones on PS3 look great.

 

[maabus1999]

I love how everyone is arguing over the hardware numbers still but really no discussion how horrible the PS4 software numbers were.

I mean, those are tragic numbers (sub 0.3 attach rates outside of Knack which doesn't count). Almost makes me think the PS4 is a FFXIV box in Japan.

 

[Mpl90]

I hope it does well depending on if its good or bad. I'm just sayin its releasing around that time and you've listed plenty of titles that I am sure ND will outsell.

Ah, I just didn't list it because we don't know the exact release week yet, not for other reasons.

 

[SwiftDeath]

I love how everyone is arguing over the hardware numbers still but really no discussion how horrible the PS4 software numbers were.

I mean, those are tragic numbers (sub 0.3 attach rates outside of Knack which doesn't count). Almost makes me think the PS4 is a FFXIV box in Japan.

Where are you getting sub 0.3 attach rate from?

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Ah, I just didn't list it because we don't know the exact release week yet, not for other reasons.

Oh I see.

 

[Prelude.]

Vita is still getting stomped by the 3ds which has great software coming.

Eh, it's barely ahead. That's definitely not "stomping".

 

[Mpl90]

Where are you getting sub 0.3 attach rate from?

Famitsu

Yakuza Ishin first two weeks - 94,922
PS4 first two weeks - 374,780

Yakuza Ishin tie ratio - 0.253

PS4 Software First Two Weeks (titles appearing / appeared in top 30, no Knack counted) - 260,103
PS4 Software tie ratio (titles appearing / appeared in top 30, no Knack counted) - 0.694

 

[ZSaberLink]

I've updated the numbers again since week 5

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|    |[B][NGB]Pokémon G / S[/B] |[B][GBA]Pokémon R / S[/B] |[B][NDS]Pokémon D / P[/B] |[B][NDS]Pokémon B / W[/B] |[B][3DS]Pokémon X / Y[/B] |
|    |    (1999.11.21)   |    (2002.11.21)   |   (2006.09.06)    |    (2010.09.18)   |    (2013.10.12)   |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
|Week|  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
|  1 |1.425.768|1.425.768|1.245.003|1.245.003|1.586.360|1.586.360|2.637.285|2.637.285|2.096.050|2.096.050|
|  2 |  438.280|1.864.049|  471.538|1.716.541|  433.793|2.020.153|  772.172|3.409.457|  591.025|2.687.075|
|  3 |  453.500|2.317.549|  321.408|2.037.949|  291.178|2.311.331|  372.619|3.782.076|  265.984|2.953.059|
|  4 |  301.003|2.618.551|  336.847|2.374.796|  231.627|2.542.958|  231.161|4.013.237|  137.720|3.090.779|
|  5 |  436.828|3.055.379|  437.352|2.812.148|  209.288|2.752.246|  151.375|4.164.612|   89.569|3.180.348|
|  6 |  573.247|3.628.627|  385.614|3.197.762|  183.048|2.935.294|   70.769|4.235.381|   64.341|3.244.689|
|  7 |  477.507|4.106.134|  408.831|3.606.593|  124.738|3.060.032|   60.921|4.296.302|   51.118|3.295.807|
|  8 |  258.734|4.364.868|  126.398|3.732.991|  101.113|3.161.145|   48.426|4.344.728|   60.547|3.356.354|
|  9 |  145.778|4.510.646|  105.173|3.838.164|  110.946|3.272.091|   38.282|4.383.010|   93.387|3.449.741|   
| 10 |  144.733|4.655.379|   66.054|3.904.218|  100.215|3.372.306|   37.706|4.420.716|  139.493|3.589.234|
| 11 |  120.138|4.775.517|   56.075|3.960.293|  151.036|3.523.342|   36.156|4.456.872|  231.112|3.820.346|
| 12 |   98.055|4.873.571|   40.764|4.001.057|  225.228|3.748.570|   54.446|4.511.318|  156.483|3.976.829|
| 13 |   76.713|4.950.284|   44.240|4.045.297|  429.017|4.177.587|   78.108|4.589.426|  152.888|4.129.717|
| 14 |   50.421|5.000.705|   34.871|4.080.168|  125.228|4.302.815|  125.697|4.715.123|   46.282|4.175.999|
| 15 |   48.587|5.049.292|   31.434|4.111.602|  214.274|4.517.089|  199.690|4.914.813|   29.452|4.205.451|
| 16 |   47.512|5.096.804|   28.464|4.140.066|   58.725|4.575.814|   74.338|4.989.151|   22.793|4.228.244|
| 17 |   43.827|5.140.631|   28.840|4.168.906|   49.050|4.624.864|   47.573|5.036.724|   18.548|4.246.792|
| 18 |   34.957|5.175.589|   35.536|4.204.442|   48.783|4.673.647|   18.696|5.055.420|   12.518|4.259.310|
| 19 |   33.367|5.208.956|   39.467|4.243.909|   45.467|4.719.114|   13.548|5.068.968|   12.702|4.272.012|
| 20 |   29.743|5.238.698|   38.913|4.282.822|   43.947|4.763.061|   12.553|5.081.521|   11.828|4.283.840|
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
|Year|   YTD   |   LTD   |   YTD   |   LTD   |   YTD   |   LTD   |   YTD   |   LTD   |   YTD   |   LTD   |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
|  1 |3.628.627|3.628.627|3.197.762|3.197.762|4.302.815|4.302.815|4.914.813|4.914.813|3.976.829|3.976.829|
|  2 |2.383.096|6.011.723|1.704.458|4.902.220|1.094.389|5.397.204|  464.322|5.379.135|  318.516|4.295.345|  
|  3 |   76.421|6.088.144|  287.026|5.189.246|  227.226|5.624.430|   98.417|5.477.552|         |         |
|  4 |         |         |  113.430|5.302.676|  127.567|5.751.997|   10.986|5.488.538|         |         |
|  5 |         |         |   34.369|5.337.045|   41.343|5.793.340|         |         |         |         |
|  6 |         |         |         |         |   21.717|5.815.057|         |         |         |         |
|  7 |         |         |         |         |   10.165|5.825.222|         |         |         |         |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
| LTD|         |6.089.503|         |5.337.045|         |5.826.538|         |5.488.538|         |4.246.792|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|LTD2|         |6.089.503|         |5.337.045|         |5.826.538|         |5.488.538|         |4.299.230|
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LTD2 = Physical copies + budget re-releases + download cards + digital sales if available

[NGB] Pokémon Red / Green / Blue (Nintendo) {1996.02.27} - 140.074 / 7.783.101
[NGB] Pokémon Gold / Silver (Nintendo) {1999.11.21} - 1.425.768 / 6.089.503
[GBA] Pokémon Ruby / Sapphire (Nintendo) {2002.11.21} - 1.245.003 / 5.337.045
[NDS] Pokémon Diamond / Pearl (Pokémon Co.) {2006.09.28} - 1.586.360 / 5.826.538
[NDS] Pokémon Black / White (Pokémon Co.) {2010.09.18} - 2.637.285 / 5.488.538
[NDS] Pokémon Black 2 / White 2 (Pokémon Co.) {2012.06.23} - 1.618.621 / 2.997.712

[3DS] Pokémon X / Y (Pokémon Co.) {2013.10.12} - 2.096.050 / 4.295.345
[3DS] Pokémon X / Y - Digital Sales (Pokémon Co.) {2013.10.12} - 52.438 (Oct and Dec - missing Nov)

Total - 4.347.783

Will Pokemon X and Y be the first mainline Pokemon game not to hit 5m in Japan? That'd be unfortunate =(.

 

[Napalm_Frank]

There's quite a bit of software coming out on playstation systems. Just not the PS4

Sony should do everything they can to get publishers on the crossgen train NOW with the ps3 games in japan. Offer all the incentives you can, offer help on the bigger ones if you must. Anyway every game that releases only on ps3 is a loss. Japan has been slow to move on next gen before but the cross gen releases make more sense now than ever before.

 

[maabus1999]

Where are you getting sub 0.3 attach rate from?

Looking at individual attach rates for each title, not the PS4 as a whole. Highest selling, non-bundled software is 100K, unless I missed a title.

They are very poor software sales.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Famitsu

Yakuza Ishin first two weeks - 94,922
PS4 first two weeks - 374,780

Yakuza Ishin tie ratio - 0.253

PS4 Software First Two Weeks (titles appearing / appeared in top 30, no Knack counted) - 260,103
PS4 Software tie ratio (titles appearing / appeared in top 30, no Knack counted) - 0.694

So a next-gen port of a current gen game is used to as the attach rate?

So has the SW ratio overall gone up or down in the last week?

Looking at individual attach rates for each title, not the PS4 as a whole. Highest selling, non-bundled software is 100K, unless I missed a title.

They are very poor software sales.

Of course. The SW numbers are bad but the overall attach rate says that much. I thought he was implying the overall attach rate was sub .3 and that would be god awful on a whole other level

 

[maabus1999]

So a next-gen port of a current gen game is used to as the attach rate?

So has the SW ratio overall gone up or down in the last week?

Down. Software sales across the board had a much larger percentage drop from last week versus hardware.

And last weeks opening launch salvo was honestly disappointing in the software sales department. And this week got even worse. You can see why I'm disappointed here and honestly paints a very, very grim picture for the PS4 long term until they get a title that will sell. And when that title will come, who knows.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Down. Software sales across the board had a much larger percentage drop from last week versus hardware.

And last weeks opening launch salvo was honestly disappointing in the software sales department. And this week got even worse. You can see why I'm disappointed here and honestly paints a very, very grim picture for the PS4 long term until they get a title that will sell. And when that title will come, who knows.

Most certainly. The real question now is how low weekly sales go and how fast.

 

[Moor-Angol]

Really awesome post Mpl90. It deserves its own thread imo. It'd be interesting to see how things develop compared to other systems.

mixing home and handhelds, prices from 29,000yen to 59,000yen


yes, like comparing apples and applepies sales



you really want compare 2000 year market with actual home market ? you really want to compare a 25,000yen handheld with a 45,000yen home system ?

Sony didn't restock cause they are selling a limited (limited) (LIMITED) (LIMITED) bundle, if Sony would have made a restock you all think that PS4 should have sold just 60k units?

 

[test_account]

Ok, looking back we have to keep in mind that PS1 and PS2 were the barometer most people based their opinion of good/bad sales and comments on. I don´t think that PS3 selling less than half of either of those consoles in 8 years would have been described any less of a disaster in 2007. After 7-8 years expectations and perceptions seem to have changed... Interestingly enough this shift of "perception" happened a lot quicker when it comes to PSP->PSV atleast thats the impression in these MC threads some users are trying to push forward . In the end, while there were some obvious factors that could have been considered when making a prediction back then in 2006/7, I doubt anyone expected that it would take so long until PS3s successor would launch, it´s likely that one of the reasons that it took so long were the bad first years.

Yeah, its possible that people had higher expectations based on what the PS1 and the PS2 sold indeed. I can see that, i agree. And i also agree that its possible that people didnt expect back in 2007/2008 that it would take this long before the PS4 came out, like you mentioned. I would however, if it was possible to get an objective answer to this at this point in time (but thats not really possible), bet money on that most people didnt expect the PS3 to sell 10 million based on the initial low PS3 numbers Especially if it was generally expected that the PS4 would be released earlier. But i cant really be 100% adamant on this statement because it would take me too much time to go through numberous of older Media Create thread and thousands upon thousands of posts to find many specific posts about this as more solid proof for this statement. So i only go by what i saw and remember, and what impression i was getting from people in general regarding the total sales of the PS3.

I feel that its the same with the WiiU and Vita today as well. Lets say that the WiiU and the Vita will end up selling 7+ million units in Japan alone when its all said and done (just an hypothetical example). I dont think that many expect this today, but if it happened and if i should prove it many years from now on, i think i would have a hard time finding many specific posts where people said that they didnt expect the WiiU and Vita to sell 7+ million units. I think i would mostly just have found posts regarding how bad the sales were.

Regarding what you say about PSP to Vita, do you mean that people expected the Vita to sell a lot less compared to the PSP? Or that people have accepted faster that it most likely will sell a lot less than the PSP?

 

[Mpl90]

mixing home and handhelds, prices from 29,000yen to 59,000yen


yes, like comparing apples and applepies sales

I'll add launch prices tomorrow, if it helps giving a better context.

P.S. We know there's been a restock, even if little.

 

[RalchAC]

mixing home and handhelds, prices from 29,000yen to 59,000yen

yes, like comparing apples and applepies sales

you really want compare 2000 year market with actual home market ? you really want to compare a 25,000yen handheld with a 45,000yen home system ?

Sony didn't restock cause they are selling a limited (limited) (LIMITED) (LIMITED) bundle, if Sony would have made a restock you all think that PS4 should have sold just 60k units?

What? That's just a lot of information gathered and put together. It doesn't imply anything. I don't get why are you getting aggresive here. Just use whatever you want, it has every homeconsole released since the PS2.

 

[Moor-Angol]

I'll add launch prices tomorrow, if it helps giving a better context.

I edited my post


you can't compare PS2 launch (probably the most hyped launch in Japan since SFC times) with actual home market size, closed between handhelds and smartphones

and also, as I said, we are comparing a limited stock of units with fully restocked units
PS4 first week was similat to recent debuts, but they were always refurnished, so we don't really know how much PS4 2nd week should have been with a restock

 

[Mpl90]

Famitsu

Yakuza Ishin first two weeks - 94,922
PS4 first two weeks - 374,780

Yakuza Ishin tie ratio - 0.253

Comparison with other launches

Ridge Racer V first two weeks - 304,753
PS2 first two weeks - 784,797
Ridge Racer V tie ratio - 0.388

Luigi's Mansion first two weeks - 140,241
Gamecube first two weeks - 162,928
Luigi's Mansion tie ratio - 0.861

Dead or Alive 3 - 106,113
Xbox first two weeks - 161,076
Dead or Alive 3 tie ratio - 0.659

Super Mario Advance: Super Mario Bros. first two weeks - 309,208
GBA first two weeks - 935,190
Super Mario Advance: Super Mario Bros. tie ratio - 0.331

WarioWare: Touched! first two weeks - 174,261
DS first two weeks - 622,716
WarioWare: Touched! tie ratio - 0.28

Hot Shots Golf: Open Tee first two weeks - 97,584
PSP first two weeks - 247,429
Hot Shots Golf: Open Tee tie ratio - 0.394

Xbox 360 - no info on Ridge Racer 6's second week, so I can't do it

Ridge Racer 7 first two weeks - 44,252
PS3 first two weeks - 131,821
Ridge Racer 7 tie ratio - 0.336

Wii Sports first two weeks - 252,455
Wii first two weeks - 481,004
Wii Sports first two weeks - 0.525

Professor Layton and the Mask of Miracles first two weeks - 178,728*
3DS first two weeks - 584,387*
Professor Layton and the Mask of Miracles first two weeks - 0,306*

* = 3DS datas from Media Create

PSV - no info on Hot Shots Golf: World Invitational second week, so I can't

New Super Mario Bros. U first two weeks - 246,313
Wii U first two weeks - 439,223
New Super Mario Bros. U tie ratio - 0.561

EDIT: Added prices in my post about launches.

http://neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=103296611&postcount=316

 

[RalchAC]

New Super Mario Bros. U first two weeks - 246,313
Wii U first two weeks - 130,653
New Super Mario Bros. U tie ratio - 0.530

You've put NSMBU numbers on WiiU and WiiU numbers on NSMB. The way it is it looks like WiiU owners double dipped Mario xD