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[Dragon1893]

What's in Japan for this week, everything rose up compared to last week?

Everything except the wiiU (and PS4 of course).

Well, you can already download additional RAM for your computer, makes sense that can download yourself a PS4 now. I mean, Sony ain't THAT incompetent.

lol, wtf?

 

[AniHawk]

is there anything sony can do to right the ship? things are looking pretty dire. at this rate, they'll be lucky to sell 15,000 ps4s next week. maybe they should have supported the ps3 for the next 5-6 years? it's hard to say. we'll see if natural doctrine does anything. that will be the first big test.

 

[Mecha]

Yokai Watch's legs are just stupid

The show is getting higher ratings every week, it managed to get a 6.3 recently.

 

[L~A]

Vita is coming for blood starting next week, might even outsell the 3DS.

Unless the 3DS sales drop again next week, I don't think a bunch of re-releases + a bundle isn't gonna help the Vita outsell the 3DS.... wouldn't surprise me, though. I'm definitely expecting that to happen once in March, as the 3DS line-up is that hot in my opinion.

 

[redcrayon]

well
soon it'll fall to PS4, then shortly after Vita will go back to it

Well, that's nice, at least everyone gets a turn!

 

[kinggroin]

is there anything sony can do to right the ship? things are looking pretty dire. at this rate, they'll be lucky to sell 15,000 ps4s next week. maybe they should have supported the ps3 for the next 5-6 years? it's hard to say. we'll see if natural doctrine does anything. that will be the first big test.

Who are you attempting to imitate here? Chicken littles?

 

[Nirolak]

You're right, "3 years of YoY increase was terrible wording on my part, as it's totally not the case. What I meant was '3 years of strong sales'.

About systems peaking in Year 3, I'm not really surprised it's not the case for the 3DS. If you think about it, Nintendo didn't follow their usual pattern for revisions :

1) console launched in 2011
2) XL revision launched in 2012
3) nothing in 2013, the 3rd year

Usually, they relese a new revisions when sales start to drop, but when they released the XL, sales were still up YoY (I actually remember them saying the XL was made for the Western markets... and it actually worked, since that model now makes up for the vast majority of 3DS sold nowadays).

With the GBA and Nintendo DS, they did things diferently :

1) GBA launched in 2001, SP launched in 2003 (Year 3)
2) DS Lite launched in 2006, DSi launched in 2008 (Year 3)*

* I'm not taking the OG DS into account since sales didn't really take off until the DS Lite was launched.

So the 3DS got its model revision a year sooner, compared to their two previous handhelds, and that's one of the main reasons it's down YoY in early 2014. My take is : Nintendo knew it didn't need a new model revision in 2013, not with Pokémon and Monster Hunter (though I'm sure they weren't totally expecting sales to be down YoY... which lead to a worse decrease YoY in early 2014).

And in my opinion, it's something Nintendo planned from the start, which is why I'm expecting a new model revision (not sure if they'll bother with the 2DS).

Yes, I do generally agree it's been strong up front even when we take into account the DS.

It's just that historically when I've expected Nintendo to take certain types of action in response, they haven't necessarily, which is why I'm more cautious on assuming something will be fixed even if I can view a solution that would raise sales to be closer to last year.

At this point their handheld division represents a very notable chunk of the market which is why any potential missteps are more painful, and I feel things like this are a greater cause for concern than they would be otherwise.

To extend this to other platforms, I don't think the Vita, Wii U, or PS4 performing bad individually is really an issue, since it's just a platform not meeting the needs of the market. However, if we have all three do bad, suddenly that's 3/4ths of the successors to last gen's viable platforms landing with a thud.

 

[mclem]

Anecdotal evidence and everything, but here's a quote from PlaystationLifestyle:

Is Vinnk around these days? That'd be useful to get some of our own anecdotal evidence

 

[AniHawk]

Who are you attempting to imitate here? Chicken littles?

actually this time, myself.

 

[Takao]

Oh my Gold!

i told you that expectation was a scam to convince kutaragi of things
it's all a conspiracy

 

[Kysen]

People are surprised at the low ps4 sales when there are few games out now that appeal to Japanese gamers? I expect sales to be low till JP devs make the switch. It's going to be at least 6months or more. In the mean time we get to hear people going on and on about how mobile is taking over Japan.

 

[test_account]

PS3s first price drop didn´t happen until October 17 and the release of the cheaper 40gb model in Nov11 2007. That a single game early 2007 couldn´t change singlehandledly and immediatly the situation is common sense considering the price was still the same at that point. The PS3 was still priced too high and only at the end of 2007 reduced and the biggest card Final Fantasy not even in sight yet. I already asked you but again what was the most common prediction back than in Japan? Because quite honestly I doubt that most were far off the mark in the end.

Unfortunately i cant give you any objective and definitive answer on what the most common prediction was back then other than saying what i personally saw and remember. What i can say is that i clearly remember a lot of discussion about how bad the PS3 was selling and there were definitelly not a clear share of people who said that the PS3 would end up selling like it did. I'm only going from what i saw and remember.

You're right about that a pricedrop and the 40GB model came out later on, but in April 2008, the PS3 was starting to sell less than 10k a week again. Also, in the first 12 months (6. November 2006 to 29. October 2007), the PS3 sold about 1.24 million units according to Media Create. In the next 12 months (5. November 2007 to 27. October 2008), the PS3 sold about 1.14 million units. So the PS3 sold less in the next 12 months despite having a pricedrop and MGS4had also been released. This didnt exactly strengthen people's belief that the PS3 would reach 10 million, so it was definitelly not a common prediction, at least from what i saw of all the comments that i read.

EDIT: By the way, i can also mention that was mostly thinking about the earlier predictions, in comparsion to doing early predictions for the PS4 now (or whatever system it might be). When the PS3 got its first official pricedrop like you mention, it had almost been a year since its launched. I was thinking about earlier predictions that this, maybe within the 2-3 first months or so after the release of the consoles People can do early long-term perdiction if they want of course, by all means, but its very hard to say if it will be accurate or not.

EDIT 2: If you want to check for yourself, here are links to all the Media Create threads from 2007: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=24968697&postcount=4

There are thousands of posts though, so it would take a huge amount of time to read through all of them, but skimming through some of those threads might give you some indication about what people though about the PS3 long-term sales

 

[Deleted member 125677]

52K ? Sounds pretty fucking awful to me. Do we know anything about second shipment?

 

[cafemomo]

Vita's hardware sales have turned from terrible to decent and software sales aren't bad, either. I don't see why the platform wouldn't deserve praise for that.

The Vita did do a great turn around since the release of FFX

 

[L~A]

Yes, I do generally agree it's been strong up front even when we take into account the DS.

It's just that historically when I've expected Nintendo to take certain types of action in response, they haven't necessarily, which is why I'm more cautious on assuming something will be fixed even if I can view a solution that would raise sales to be closer to last year.

At this point their handheld division represents a very notable chunk of the market which is why any potential missteps are more painful, and I feel things like this are a greater cause for concern than they would be otherwise.

To extend this to other platforms, I don't think the Vita, Wii U, or PS4 performing bad individually is really an issue, since it's just a platform not meeting the needs of the market. However, if we have all three do bad, suddenly that's 3/4ths of the successors to last gen's viable platforms landing with a thud.

Oh, no need to remind me about Nintendo not doing what people are expecting them to do (burned myself more that once with such predictions).... though in that case, I don't think they got much choice. After all, the 3DS is pretty much their only hope for significant profits in the upcoming months (if not years), so they can't really let sales drop without doing anything about it.

Maybe they'll surprise us by release a 3DSi (with full NNID integration, and maybe a bit of their next-gen architecture), or maybe a modernised version of the OG 3DS... instead of the 2DS (what most people are expecting).

As I said, the next few months are going to be quite fascinating for Nintendo, on both fronts.

 

[jcm]

Anecdotal evidence and everything, but here's a quote from PlaystationLifestyle:

I would have thought that Famitsu saying it's supply constrained would have put an end to this silliness.

 

[Mpl90]

PS4 RELEASE SCHEDULE

03/19 - Nobunaga's Ambition Online
03/20 - MGSV Demo

04/14 - FFXIV ARR Online
04/?? - Natural Doctrine

05/01 - Child of Light (PSN)
05/22 - notFamous
05/29 - Trials Fusion

06/05 - Wolfenstein

I think I'm gonna frame this and put it on a wall.


For comparison:

Wii U:

12/13 - Romance of the Three Kingdoms 12
12/20 - Call of Duty: Black Ops II
12/20 - ESPN Sports Connection
12/20 - Family Party: 30 Great Games Obstacle Arcade
12/26 - Tank! Tank! Tank!

01/31 - Fist of the North Star: Ken's Rage 2

02/07 - Wii Street U (eShop)
02/21 - Monster Hunter 3G Packet Relay Tool
02/21 - Tank! Tank! Tank!
02/27 - Nano Assault Neo (eShop)

03/20 - EarthBound (Virtual Console)
03/20 - Need for Speed: Most Wanted U
03/28 - Game & Wario
03/30 - Dragon Quest X Online

Seriously, now. What the heck is going on with PS4, if its post-launch lineup is at Wii U levels, if not worse (certainly for the amount of titles).

 

[Mpl90]

I would have thought that Famitsu saying it's supply constrained would have put an end to this silliness.

People living in Japan saying that there is stock is now silly?

 

[Kandinsky]

People living in Japan saying that there is stock is now silly?

Of course, we are talking about the Playstation 4.

 

[leatherhat]

Vita last year (post price cut)

62.543
63.581 (SS week)
36.028
41.073
31.795
19.328

It bounces around 15-20k for about a month after that before falling back into the 10k range

 

[vinnygambini]

Yokai Watch and Kirby are doing great numbers!

OLM Studios must be very happy as they have both number 1 TV shows, Pokemon and Yokai Watch.

3DS hardware sales are disappointing though; is the PS4 supply constrained? The drop-off is quite steep.

 

[test_account]

Unless the 3DS sales drop again next week, I don't think a bunch of re-releases + a bundle isn't gonna help the Vita outsell the 3DS.... wouldn't surprise me, though. I'm definitely expecting that to happen once in March, as the 3DS line-up is that hot in my opinion.

I think all of those games pictured on that Vita box are demos only. The 8GB memorycard might be included for free though, but unfortunately i dont remember the price for this Vita bundle.

People living in Japan saying that there is stock is now silly?

I think hes only referring to this sentence: "You’ll probably see a lot of people online claiming supply constraints, but from my own experience here in Japan, that does not seem very true. Famitsu said that there was some supply constrains, so if people say that there were no supply constrains, then Famitsu would also have to be wrong about it.

 

[Brazil]

Japan brings in justice to the gaming industry once again.

Harvest Moon is back, bitches.

 

[Jamix012]

The Vita did do a great turn around since the release of FFX

lol, FFX didn't "save" the Vita, it didn't even push it above the 3DS on its launch week like you bet. It helped add to the value propsition, but the real "turn around" came with God Eater 2 and the Vita 2000.

I honestly think this'll be the Vita's best year if it even manages to beat last year (I reckon it'll do a little better) but I think it's a downward slope from here. Out of curiosity, how is the Vita tracking against the Gamecube? I'd imagine it's a little up, but not by much?

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

From last week's thread:-

Woow, and so many people in the last thread were adamant that PS4 was NOT supply constrained.

There you go people, even Famitsu is saying its supply constrained.

That second shipment must of been real low.

I mean there were 40k PS4's left so 25k sold and that 25k was apparently 80-100% of the shipment. So what the second shipment was 25k - 31.25k. Lol. I can only assume Sony is shipping all the Ps4's to the thirsty West.

 

[jcm]

People living in Japan saying that there is stock is now silly?

People using anecdotes to claim the PS4 was not supply constrained is silly, yes. The stock situation made it patently clear that it was in fact supply constrained. People continuing to use anecdotes to claim that PS4 was not supply constrained after the sales tracker has already reported to us that it was, is actually beyond silly and into willful ignorance, but I was trying to be polite.

 

[TheChaos0]

Everything except the wiiU (and PS4 of course).



lol, wtf?

I prefer http://downloadmoreram.co.uk a lot more professional.

Unless the 3DS sales drop again next week, I don't think a bunch of re-releases + a bundle isn't gonna help the Vita outsell the 3DS.... wouldn't surprise me, though. I'm definitely expecting that to happen once in March, as the 3DS line-up is that hot in my opinion.

I think it'll reach 35k (max) next week. Depending whether 3DS drops and by how much, it might be pretty close.

is there anything sony can do to right the ship? things are looking pretty dire. at this rate, they'll be lucky to sell 15,000 ps4s next week. maybe they should have supported the ps3 for the next 5-6 years? it's hard to say. we'll see if natural doctrine does anything. that will be the first big test.

There's nothing anyone can do, until some Japanese games are announced and released. Sony is so focussed on the Western sales that they forgot to develop anything Japanese centric for PS4.

But that's because Western market actually has some competition unlike in Japan where Wii U is being Wii U and Xbox is irrelevant. We all know where all the big names will put their next Resident Evils, Final Fantasies on. However what Sony should do is encourage as many cross gen releases as possible for PS4. New Tales could be PS3/4, Persona could be PS3/4, etc, that will make the audience upgrade a lot faster

Seriously, now. What the heck is going on with PS4, if its post-launch lineup is at Wii U levels, if not worse (certainly for the amount of titles).

There were literally no new announcements post last year's TSG. Maybe seeing how well PS4 is doing in the West will motivate some developers a little bit.

 

[Jamix012]

Regarding PS4 numbers this week, I'm keeping to myself for now. If it truly is supply constrained then it should go up next week given that sony supply more, but I'm not convinced it will.

3DS performance is worrying not only for Nintendo, but the JP industry. 35K weekly isn't a bad number for a japanese console, but it's pretty dire for a market leader and for the position Nintendo is in.

 

[Lumyst]

Japan brings in justice to the gaming industry once again.

Harvest Moon is back, bitches.

Of course we can account all those extra Week 1 sales of Harvest Moon, compared with previous entries, to the Mario power ups

 

[Robert at Zeboyd Games]

Unless the 3DS sales drop again next week, I don't think a bunch of re-releases + a bundle isn't gonna help the Vita outsell the 3DS.... wouldn't surprise me, though.

You left out the big one - a new Soul Sacrifice.

 

[Vanille]

Seeing anything IS related bomb makes me extremely happy.

But it didn't bomb? 25k is a pretty good number for 5pb.

 

[antibolo]

Why is 65k for second week considered so bad??

The thing barely has any games for it yet. Anyone who wanted one for the sake of owning one has probably bought it at launch.

 

[TheChaos0]

You left out the big one - a new Soul Sacrifice.

Well it's a Soul Sacrifice G not a fully fledged sequel, which is in works. But it might sell well, given that there's quite a few improvements.

 

[Jamix012]

Why is 65k so bad?

The thing barely has any games for it yet.

It's now trending behind both the Vita and Wii U. Granted if it holds or rises next week, those clamoring supply constraints will be validated.

 

[AdanVC]

Crazy numbers for Harvest Moon! Japan REALLY likes simulation games. PS4 numbers kinda low this week tough, I mean, I tought it would be around 100k to 200k this week. Oh well.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

People using anecdotes to claim the PS4 was not supply constrained is silly, yes. The stock situation made it patently clear that it was in fact supply constrained. People continuing to use anecdotes to claim that PS4 was not supply constrained after the sales tracker has already reported to us that it was, is actually beyond silly and into willful ignorance, but I was trying to be polite.

Well said. Its like they didn't learn from the launch. Anecdotes never provide an accurate representation of the full picture even more so when we had stores with conflicting evidence saying they were sold out.

 

[Darius]

Unfortunately i cant give you any objective and definitive answer on what the most common prediction was back other than saying what i personally saw and remember. What i can say is that i clearly remember a lot of discussion about how bad the PS3 was selling and there were definitelly not a clear share of people who said that the PS3 would end up selling like it did. I'm only going from what i saw and remember.

You're right about that a pricedrop and the 40GB model came out later on, but in April 2008, the PS3 was starting to sell less than 10k a week again. Also, in the first 12 months (6. November 2006 to 29. October 2007), the PS3 sold about 1.24 million units according to Media Create. In the next 12 months (5. November 2007 to 27. October 2008), the PS3 sold about 1.14 million units. So the PS3 sold less in the next 12 months despite having a pricedrop and MGS4had also been released. This didnt exactly strengthen people's belief that the PS3 would reach 10 million, so it was definitelly not a common prediction, at least from what i saw of all the comments that i read.

EDIT: By the way, i can also mention that i'm mostly thinking about the earlier predictions, in comparsion to doing early predictions for the PS4 now (or whatever system it might be). When the PS3 got its first official pricedrop like you mention, it had almost been a year since its launched. I was thinking about earlier predictions that this, maybe within the 2-3 first months or so after the release of the consoles

EDIT 2: If you want to check for yourself, here are links to all the Media Create threads from 2007: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=24968697&postcount=4

There are thousands of posts though, so it would take a huge amount of time to read through all of them, but skimming through some of those threads might give you some indication about what people though about the PS3 long-term sales

PS3s price was always mentioned as a problem and reason from the start (actually since it was announced) and the most apparent/popular argument when it came to explain its sales. So it´s really unlikely that most people just extrapolated those terrible launch sales without taking into account system sellers, revisions and a mainstream friendly price in future, which in my opinion is less than 30k yen.

You compared its first 12 months with its next 12 months into 27.Oct. 2008. But if you take just another step and take a look at 2009 ytd the sales almost doubled (1.764.531) compared to 2008s ytd, due to a further price drop, revision and the release of its biggest system-seller FinalFantasy13.

 

[boiled goose]

Perhaps the shortened lifespan of the 3DS is a product of increased competition from mobile. Upgrades just happen much faster and hardware is always improving.

This is why Nintendo needs to switch to their integrated strategy ASAP.
Not only does it make buying hardware and software in the first place MUCH more appealing, it also allows for more frequent hardware upgrades within gen and smoother crossgen transitions.

I think gens should become blurrier, like they are on mobile. You develop for the 'platform' not the hardware. It will be a natural by product of moving from a hardware to service centric development mentality.

IMO, nintendo should do some sort of relaunch of the 3DS in both the west and Japan. This relaunch could be some sort of minor hardware upgrade and form factor difference and could even have a different name. The key is that it would fit into their unified and integrated development strategy. One nintendo account, different hardware, play games wherever when compatible. They should also do this for the WiiU tbh. 3DS certainly has the games, it just needs to become a more appealing 'platform' to invest on.

 

[Robert at Zeboyd Games]

Well it's a Soul Sacrifice G not a fully fledged sequel, which is in works. But it might sell well, given that there's quite a few improvements.

For a MH-style game, isn't that basically the same thing? Most "sequels" in that particular subgenre are pretty much just the previous game with some new enemies/equipment added & a few quality of life improvements.

 

[leatherhat]

You left out the big one - a new Soul Sacrifice.

It has a better shot during Miku week. Or SAO week in April.

 

[antibolo]

It's now trending behind both the Vita and Wii U. Granted if it holds or rises next week, those clamoring supply constraints will be validated.

The Wii U had a stronger launch lineup (ie. a new Mario game). And the Vita is a handheld, they're always expected to fare better in Japan.

I think first place with 65k is pretty damn good for a system who has no killer app so far.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

The Wii U had a stronger launch lineup (ie. a new Mario game). And the Vita is a handheld, they're always expected to fare better in Japan.

I think 65k is pretty damn good for a system who has no killer app so far.

Its also supply constrained unlike the WiiU and Vita.

 

[cafemomo]

lol, FFX didn't "save" the Vita, it didn't even push it above the 3DS on its launch week like you bet. It helped add to the value propsition, but the real "turn around" came with God Eater 2 and the Vita 2000.

FFX solidified the Vita's "place" in the market. GE2 & PSV2000 was nail, and FFX was the hammer.

I do agree with you that this might be the Vita's best year. SCEJ's output looks promosing so far (Gravity Daze, SS Delta, Freedom Wars) & I'm sure Scamco will follow up with another GE

 

[TheChaos0]

For a MH-style game, isn't that basically the same thing? Most "sequels" in that particular subgenre are pretty much just the previous game with some new enemies/equipment added & a few quality of life improvements.

For last week's post.

God Eater - 617,828
God Eater Burst (+ best) - 551,662

Kauji Busters - 61,009
Kaijuu Busters Powered - 51,402

Valhalla Knights 2 - 89,004
Valhalla Knights 2: Battle Stance - 33,271

Phantasy Star Portable 2 (+ best) - 615,848
Phantasy Star Portable 2: Infinity - 378,328

Monster Hunter - 288,559
Monster Hunter G - 232,239
Monster Hunter Freedom 2 - 1,723,187
Monster Hunter Freedom Unite - 4,214,820
Monster Hunter 3 - 1,077,273
Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate - 1,924,664

I think it'll do good numbers but what it needs really are legs.

Hmm, will there be God Eater II Burst, I wonder.

 

[Jamix012]

The Wii U had a stronger launch lineup (ie. a new Mario game). And the Vita is a handheld, they're always expected to fare better in Japan.

I think first place with 65k is pretty damn good for a system who has no killer app so far.

I don't think the PS4 would be content trailing behind the Vita, handheld or not, or the Wii U. The PS4 doesn't have a killer app but it doesn't seem to have one coming out in the next 8-10 months either. People touting supply constraints probably have a point, but I'm going to wait and see. Even if sales are solely down to supply constraints, that can only be bad for the current situation of the PS4.

 

[Principate]

Its also supply constrained unlike the WiiU and Vita.

We'll see, the Wii u was also "supply constrained" during it's launch. That doesn't mean much unless the demand actually far outstrips the supply, I'm not sure we have the evidence to imply that.

85% implies the PS4 was shipped reasonably accurately.

 

[dolemite]

Next week's PS4 numbers will NOT have a Knack bundle, why are we expecting the numbers to hold steady or rise then?

 

[Kid Ying]

Everythings up and ps4 is holding good for this time of the year. Lets ser how sell it will go after those supply issues have been solved. I dont think the ps4 sales would be much different though. Just like when MC said that that snowy weekend made DK sales suffer and in the end nothing chances much.

 

[Principate]

Next week's PS4 numbers will NOT have a Knack bundle, why are we expecting the numbers to hold steady or rise then?

Who expecting that? A fall is the most probably situation, even if the PS4 had a decent lineup and the console situation healthier a fall would still be fairly likely.

 

[RalchAC]

It has a better shot during Miku week. Or SAO week in April.

Well, in COMG the Vita version of Project Diva is tracking ahead the PS3 version by a good marging. And I think it's the kind of game that suits handhelds better (no problem with input lag on TV, good for short bursts + headphones, the IP started on the PSP iirc.

Sure, that place isn't really accurate, but the difference is quite big.

Which week is SAO releasing? I know it's on April, but not much more.

This time Sony isn't bundling SS Delta, right? There is that "Welcome Box" that they hope to move some games due to the build in demos of Delta and GE2, but they're not pushing it as heavily as the original.

Man, hope I could change my Soul Sacrifice prediction. I thought the original game sold better than 190k units, now my prediction feels unrealistic lol. I still think it can do as well (or maybe slightly better) due to the big increase on the install base, but let's see.