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[shinra-bansho]

The game did about 3M total through 2013.

It did about 1% of it's ~600K October sales on the Wii U.

If you want to carry that percentage forward (and assume that percentage didn't go down with the release of the other two systems, which collectively did 850K+) then it would amount to something like 30K.

Anihawk posted somewhere the sales LTD of ACIII around September 2013 or so, and off the top of my head it was around 60-70K.

I don't know why those sorts of numbers and that sort of percentage share wouldn't be considered abysmal for a title that sells around 3M+. This all being a semantic argument ultimately.

 

[metalslimer]

That's not exactly my argument but AC on Wii U is going off on a tangent anyway. I'm just a little annoyed when power words like "abysmal" are thrown around as fact but if you ask anyone for figures, no one knows. Doesn't mean the poster is wrong, I might just be in a pissy mood.

In most examples, games don't start off abysmally and then suddenly end up in a respectable place. For example, we can say with a good amount of confidence that Fuse is a massive bomb despite no recent numbers. Will there be some crazy outliers to this? Sure, but we can speak in pretty good terms when assuming Assassin's Creed Wii U in the year where next gen consoles launched did not skyrocket.

 

[Devilgunman]

How much are we expecting

I predict 170k +/- 10k.

 

[zeroOman]

yup, almost the end of the business day, I guess we have to wait for Wednesday

Don't even joke about it like that....

 

[Somnid]

But people can move themselves to another TV set.
And having more than one TV set usually lead to specialization in those TV sets - one for kids room, one for main room, one for kitchen. And through this specialization competition for activity is greatly reduced - you don't watch you favorite TV show on kids TV, that mostly used for gaming.

Not very many people do that. Nintendo did research and found that the majority of consoles are hooked up to the largest TV in the house. I'd think this is rather obvious, especially because consoles are used by more than one person and certainly adults as well as children.

 

[jeremy1456]

Are we getting the first day number? It's already Monday afternoon in Japan, right?

Sony usually doesn't release numbers unless they're really good.

 

[Busaiku]

Sony usually doesn't release numbers unless they're really good.

We're not waiting on Sony though.

 

[pieatorium]

We're not waiting on Sony though.

like i said on the previous page famitsu numbers wont be for several hours if they come

go back the the last few launches the earliest we got numbers was about 4hrs from now on the respective day

 

[jeremy1456]

We're not waiting on Sony though.

I didn't know that.

Predicting 240k.

 

[metalslimer]

Anything above 250k would be a pretty nice result. Slightly below 200k without a good hold the next couple of weeks is kind of what I actually expect.

 

[jeremy1456]

Anything above 250k would be a pretty nice result. Slightly below 200k without a good hold the next couple of weeks is kind of what I actually expect.

Over 250k is very optimistic. I still say 240k and descending to >15k weekly average once the launch dust settles.

 

[Nightengale]

I didn't know that.

Predicting 240k.

We wouldn't had known Ps3 sales if it was up to Sony.

 

[Tagg9]

Over 250k is very optimistic. I still say 240k and descending to >15k weekly average once the launch dust settles.

Very optimistic. I can't see first week sales over 200k.

 

[jeremy1456]

Very optimistic. I can't see first week sales over 200k.

Well where do you see them on the following weeks?

 

[SwiftDeath]

Ugh I'm going to bed soon and still no numbers it would seem

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Ugh I'm going to bed soon and still no numbers it would seem

We will get them in about 3 hours.

 

[SwiftDeath]

We will get them in about 3 hours.

But I was told 4 hours 2 hours ago

Now it's 3 hours. Oh well I can always just see them tomorrow morning

 

[DaSorcerer7]

Prediction PS4: 135k

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Welp no Monday report, maybe tomorrow.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

But I was told 4 hours 2 hours ago

Now it's 3 hours. Oh well I can always just see them tomorrow morning

Well, I looked at those links and they were published around 11-12 (GMT) and its like 9 here. Thats where I got my number.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Well, I looked at those links and they were published around 11-12 (GMT) and its like 9 here. Thats where I got my number.

I'm just grumbling because I wanted to see the numbers before I went to sleep. Ah well

 

[SmokyDave]

The anticipation, man. It's killing me.

Anecdotal evidence didn't sound all that promising, but you never know.

Edit: I forgot to predict. 207k.

 

[jeremy1456]

Prediction PS4: 135k

That's kind of low, but almost double what I see its monthly sales being in the future.

 

[GhostTrick]

I predict 250k to 300k.

 

[jeremy1456]

The anticipation, man. It's killing me.

Anecdotal evidence didn't sound all that promising, but you never know.

Edit: I forgot to predict. 207k.

And I felt 240k was pushing the limits.

 

[AniHawk]

i'll go with 265.3k maybe 265.9k tops.

 

[1st Course]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Cheesemeister3k

Cheesemeister say hey took these pics today (like 5 hours ago)

 

[DrWong]

Well, I already said 310K for the PS4 in its opening week in the last prediction post for February... Today I would say 250K.

 

[jeremy1456]

Well, I already said 310K for the PS4 in its opening week in the last prediction post for February... Today I would say 250K.

So what do you think the baseline will be?

 

[Hanmik]

prediction: PS4 = 284k.

 

[DrWong]

So what do you think the baseline will be?

After its FW? My guessasstimate says: between 10K and 20K max weekly.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

I going with 200K , non holiday , no games plus aging population .

 

[jeremy1456]

After its FW? My guessasstimate says: between 10K and 20K max weekly.

That is way to safe of a prediction.

Next month the system will start out at 15k, and dip as low as 11k.

Before FF14 launches it will be at 8-10k weekly.

But will have a short rise when the game releases.

But, and make no mistakes about it, will go back down to the aforementioned weekly rate.

 

[Road]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Cheesemeister3k

Cheesemeister say hey took these pics today (like 5 hours ago)

I guess Yodobashi website is not being properly updated.

The Kyoto store (second to last) is supposed to not have stock available until Wednesday 26th.

 

[pieatorium]

I guess Yodobashi website is not being properly updated.

The Kyoto store (second to last) is supposed to not have stock available until Wednesday 26th.

maybe they sold those in the 5hrs since that was posted

 

[allan-bh]

At this point only a shipment bigger than we thought made this launch a great success.

 

[Aostia]

I think that first two days of launch will set PS4 slighlty over 200k. Week after will still be high, over 100k. Than it will naturally collapse, but still I foresee an higher weekly basis compared to the actual PS3 Japanese numbers, similar to PSVita

 

[Majmun]

I predict 191k

 

[crinale]

maybe they sold those in the 5hrs since that was posted

That's likely to be the case. Kyoto store had it listed "in stock" until like 2-3 hrs ago.
I also read that shipment may be a little higher than original rumored...

 

[allan-bh]

Week after will still be high, over 100k.

I don't believe that. I think will drop below 100k pretty fast.

 

[jeremy1456]

I don't believe that. I think will drop below 100k pretty fast.

I disagree. Second week will be over 100k.

Third week will not. In fact, the next time we see the system over 50k will probably be either the launch of FFXV or Kingdom Hearts 3. Whichever comes first.

 

[allan-bh]

I disagree. Second week will be over 100k.

Vita drop from 325k to 72k. Wii U from 308k to 127k

I know, it's Vita and Wii U, but if PS4 sold a bit more than 200k without an overall sold out, will not be that easy to sell 100k on week 2.

If sales are more like 300k, than is more possible to sell 100k+ on second week.

 

[Chobel]

My prediction:

PS4 158K

 

[jeremy1456]

Vita drop from 325k to 72k.

I know, it's Vita, but if PS4 sold a bit more than 200k without an overall sold out, will not be that easy to sell 100k on week 2.

If sales are more like 300k, than is more possible to sell 100k+ on second week.

I was being generous.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

I disagree. Second week will be over 100k.

Third week will not. In fact, the next time we see the system over 50k will probably be either the launch of FFXV or Kingdom Hearts 3. Whichever comes first.

It could get over 50k for the MGS demo if the fan base hungry enough for the next gen version .

 

[jeremy1456]

It could get over 50k for the MGS demo if the fan base hungry enough for the next gen version .

You're right, only if the demo is exclusive to next gen consoles.

 

[Aostia]

I don't believe that. I think will drop below 100k pretty fast.

I think that, if the two-days opening numbers are over 200k, than during the enitre following week we COULD see something around 90-100k, clearing the first (supposed) shipment more or less.

 

[jeremy1456]

I think that, if the two-days opening numbers are over 200k, than during the enitre following week we COULD see something around 90-100k, clearing the first (supposed) shipment more or less.

In modern times that has only happened with evergreen titles.

None of the PS4's launch titles fit in that category.

 

[Aostia]

In modern times that has only happened with evergreen titles.

None of the PS4's launch titles fit in that category.

Up to now I think that PS4 could be an "evergreen" topic in Japan, if we consider two weeks as "ever" ;p
Really: it is the only and unique home console of possible choice in that market, so I think that (being price-positioned well, compared to the PS3 launch, and with different Japanese games like Yakuza, could last a couple of weeks. I know that those games are cross-gen, but we started seeing that even Vita versions of cross-platform games can sell decently compared to their PS3 counterparts, recently, so I think that at launch the PS4 versions can do decent results)

 

[Infinite Xero]

Prediction:

PS4 125K