jeremy1456
Junior Member
I was just pointing out a gaping flaw in Dave's logic.
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Media Create Sales: Week 17, 2014 (Apr 21 - Apr 27)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
I was just pointing out a gaping flaw in Dave's logic.
Read the whole thread, or at least follow the quote chain upwards.
You're comparing apples and oranges. The PS3/4 games you listed came out at the same time. Meaning PS4 owners didn't have to wait for their version.
A more suitable comparison would be the DQX add on which sold about 130 000 each on Wii and Wii U, meaning it has a ratio of 1:1, compared to roughly 2:1 in favor of the PS3 going by your examples.
Yeah sure, $350 is an insanely low price. Anyone would pay that to play 2 games.
On the other hand, NSMBU sold about as much unbundled as Knack did bundled. NSMBU more than doubled its unbundled sales and will keep selling over the Wii U's lifetime, same won't be true for unbundled Knack.
No it's not if you compare equivalents. For the examples you list here we don't have any comparable titles on PS4.
Truth of the matter, PS4 is selling worse than both the Wii U and the PS3. The PS3 also had few games, less than the PS4 actually. And it cost more. Still it is starting to outperform a PS4 with MGS, Yakuza and FFXIV.
You're nitpicking but if you're really so hellbent on this listwarring back and forth I didn't bring up using you using Xillia sales from 2011 rather than Xillia 2/Symphonia HD or adding Vita sales to FFX HD.
DQX was a staggered launch and did two thirds of it's Wii U sales digitally. So how did comparable titles like FFXIV and Musou Orochi 2 Ultimate do on PS4? Meanwhile DQX Version 2 sold equally across Wii and Wii U. How's that compare to Yakuza Ishin and MGSVGZ?
Pikmin 3's an example of what? A dormant series who's Wii U entry outsold every PS4 game? Do we really need to go into why Wii Fit U's a flawed example of deriving anything at retail?
Sure mostly everything's seen a significant decline with Wii U. But 2 months after launch did we really expect that to be the case? Why do you think it's such a sure thing PS4 will go differently?
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Oh yeah I forgot about that. DQX expansion did 117k on Wii and 70k on WiiU. Thats much better.
Well my point still stand about the franchise decline on WiiU which anyone can see. Pikmin, DK, Wii Fit, NSMBU, heck even 3D world (to a smaller extent)
The bundle had 3 games at the extra price of 3k yen.
Just like how no one will take you seriously if you said Knack's a big IP, it sold 450k+, no one will take you seriously if you say Wii party U was a big hit it sold 700k.
Well thats kind of my point. Its premature to say the franchises I listed are yesterday's franchises.
The PS3 and WiiU are outselling the PS4 for now. Doesn't mean they will continue outselling it. All those games you mentioned are also on the PS3, so its clear why they didn't sell as many PS4's.
Didn't maplestory on DS do pretty well? Seems like a big fall off. Unless the Korean releases of the games are what made the venture worthwhile.
I've found the attuide from nexon to Nintendo strange. They don't need nintendo at all, yet have gone out of their way to court them. At first I assumed it was a partnership from Nintendo Korea, yet nexon moving its executive team to Japan didn't seem to stop its friendliness.
Nintendo really should work with nexon on bringing some of their f2p portfolio over to their next consoles... Especially if they do want to expand into greater Asia.
I've found the attuide from nexon to Nintendo strange. They don't need nintendo at all, yet have gone out of their way to court them. At first I assumed it was a partnership from Nintendo Korea, yet nexon moving its executive team to Japan didn't seem to stop its friendliness.
Nintendo really should work with nexon on bringing some of their f2p portfolio over to their next consoles... Especially if they do want to expand into greater Asia.
Those are sales on a reasonably healthy PS3 userbase. With the PS4 struggling there's a high risk of sales also seeing declines the same way Nintendo franchises have declined on the Wii U. Absense of midtier will also hurt the console. Some of the major franchises have already been dropping btw:
[PS3] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2014 - 3.366 / 286.367
[PS3] Gran Turismo 6 - 4.598 / 326.604
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
I don't think the decline is going to be anywhere as bad.
I can see some franchises have declined. We also have new IP that have performed well such as Dragons Dogma and Souls.
Metallix87
Member
Of course you don't think so, but I bet you also didn't think the PS4 would perform as bad, if not worse, than the Wii U.
Are you sure?
I don't think the core interest can be taken for granted. There needs to be pandering to them. If not, games like 3DW and MK8 would automatically open at like 600K, which they won't.
lol... cold
Why are you ignoring digital sales even when they're known? And even without them, the ratio still is better on Wii U compared to PS4.
Knack sold 0 for all it's worth. It sold on the back of the launch.
Vinnk said his students were excited for Wii Party U. If that game can sell close to 6 digit numbers even before the holidays, without any bundles, you can be sure it contributed more to the Wii U sales than Knack did.
My point is, the Wii U sold because of holiday purchases and the games available. The PS4 sold on launch hype, not because of Knack.
So it's funny how you were downplaying the role of the bundled Wii U games when your repeated mantra was really describing the high selling PS4 launch game.
Who even said that? Problem is, when will they arrive? How many will come to the PS4? And how bad will the damage be by the time it takes for them to arrive?
If the PS3 could sell without games, why can't the PS4 with games? The decline is evident.
A decline is a decline. Any prospect of things looking up will be held back by the general decline.
Of course the PS4 sales will get better at some point. But will they ever be very good, and compared to what?
And if we're talking about this year, I think the Wii U has a very good shot at beating the PS4 YTD. It all depends on how fast the PS4 will get exclusive high quality content like Deep Down. And even with DD, the Wii U could beat the PS4 this year.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
I severely overestimated the launch but ever since I've pretty much thought its going to be just like PS3. I expect an YTD of 1-1.3 million.
I don't know about them. How about we look at DQX ---> DQX WiiU and FF14 ---> FF14 PS4. Seems like a more relatable comparison.
The collapse of Wii____ series is evident. Theres no beating around the bush.
Why don't you look back
As I've said, I expect the PS4 to be in line with the PS3.
theprodigy
Member
are we looking at the same current YTDs?
PS4 is already nearly at 550k, I doubt it'll collapse to the point where it can't hit 1 million, not that I think Wii U will even touch that mark in the first place
Wii U makes most of its sales during the holidays.
theprodigy
Member
Wii U did 900k YTD last year and it's already down 25% or 30% depending on which tracker you use, MK8/SSB4 will probably only bring it even in the end
jeremy1456
Junior Member
With no big games on the immediate horizon I predict PS4 will have a YTD of 900k. I predict the Wii U's YTD to be just slightly higher.
MK8 will boost sales during a period when the Wii U sales were already very low in 2013 and both SSB4 and MK8 will only add to the general holiday boost.
It remains to be seen how much these two titles can improve sales yoy. And how the PS4 sales will develope in the next months. We'll see.
jeremy1456
Junior Member
Nintendo generally announces it's big holiday game of the year at e3, and I'm expecting them to have reveal another big game for the holidays again this year.
Those franchises did well but not amazing. Remains to be seen how much staying power they have. Onimusha used to be big back in the day for example.
Final Fantasy has been dropping and may well continue seeing as Square will likely target it towards the west. And when is it coming out? Same with Kingdom Hearts? Resident Evil? GTA is probably three or four years away. It's not much use if the system gets a reputation of having no games and dies in the meantime.
Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule
Member
Yokai watch is the next big thing in Japan
SS
ßig
Unconfirmed Member
I wonder if this will catch on elsewhere. Last time I walked past an elementary school kids were talking about Call of Duty, they shouldn't play that kind of stuff. But they also mentioned Fifa, so there's that.
Metallix87
Member
I think there's no chance of that. It's now going below PS3 sales, despite a cheaper price point.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
Price isn't really the PS4's issues like it was with the PS3
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
I think you don't understand what the above poster meant by most of its sales in the holidays. In the last 6 weeks, the Wii U nearly sold half of its yearly sales (about 350K iirc). Since the Wii Party U/NSMBU bundle I think it sold around 400K until the end of the year.
Wii U YTD in 2013 before bundling (10/31/2013): 446.314
Wii U 2013 YTD = 880K.
Currently the Wii U in 2014 has sold 200,273 as opposed to 263,112. I think Mario Kart 8's release alone could wipe out that YoY decline at least for the short term.
Also FYI:
Wii U YTD at this time last year (4/29-5/5): 273.685
Wii U YTD on 6/30/2013: 317.354
It was selling pitifully during May and June last year. Once again I think MK8 alone could close the gap for that reason as well.
Phoenician_Viking
Banned
Not bad for SAO.
The gampad does not offer anything new to the consumer.
Divesting in a losing project is different.
People from glass houses should not throw stones.
Metallix87
Member
They both had the same issue: Lack of relevant software. The PS4 has a pricing advantage, though, yet that's resulted in even less sales overall.
Incorrect. It offers new gameplay opportunities. What you meant to say is: The GamePad does not offer anything new to the consumer that they would care about.
SwiftDeath
Member
It's almost as if the home console market in Japan is not the same as it was 8 years ago, almost
Metallix87
Member
I understand that, I'm merely pointing out that the people who thought that the PS4 would fare noticeably better than the Wii U have gotten the rude awakening I and several others predicted.
I'm honestly curious about the West in this regard, too, since I don't think the current level of PS4 sales will remain constant for much longer. Unfortunately, it's only a matter of time before we see just what kind of impact mobile gaming has had on all the markets.
What came first, the decline of the console market, or the PS3 starting that decline?
Disagree strongly on this front. I reckon it'll be up about 20% or more if Smash does launch this year. Honestly, in Japan I think Wii U will hit the gamecube's total (4 Mill) by the time it is killed off.
theprodigy
Member
It's almost like I'm fully aware of this, but I don't believe either MK8 or SSB4 will do more than provide a short term bump that will make up for their previous deficits.
also ironic how the one with the biggest fanboy goggles is the one talking about glass houses
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
I disagree with FF dropping. its the 13 series and FFX Hd proved that. Iirc FF13 did 1.9 million, FFX did 2.3 million.
I think mainline FF's will stick to around 2 million.
My point was that just as franchises decline, new IP's and other franchises grow. Especially when it seems like Western games are getting more popular in Japan such as GTA. However, now that dev costs are going up, pubs are being less risky and so the birth of new IP's doing exceedingly well for the pubs is quite rare.
Whether PS4 has many games for its 2015 lineup and future remains to be seen and I'm not going to make any assumptions or predictions.
Metallix87
Member
You don't consider the "FF13 series" to be mainline titles?
sörine;110101045 said:
The next Yakuza is in the works and it's likely for PS4.
I don't see Namco using the Vita as a option for mainline Tales titles. If anything they'd just stick to PS3 for a while longer, as that's where the fanbase is currently anyway. I doubt it'll get to the point where years later the PS4 isn't viable for these titles at all.
Metallix87
Member
It won't go to Vita, but the 3DS's successor is a possibility, if it's powerful enough.
I'm curious to see how FFXV does given that its coming off of FFXIII, started off as a spin off and doesn't play like the other FF titles.
Not when the fanbases for these games are likely to stick to PlayStation.
Metallix87
Member
People said the same of Tales, yet the 3DS vs. PSV sales were comparable.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
They are mainline, but after FF13 its clear many FF fans did not like the series hence the severe decline. Oh and this a WW trend as well. FFX HD outsold LR WW. Iyts clear the FF brand is still very strong, just disassociate it with the 13 series.
I expect FFXV to do 2 million for instance.
I think it may do quite a bit better in the west than FF13.
That really depends on how far into the future you are talking because if there's no Vita successor and Bamco wants portable versions of their games for the extra money then they wouldn't be able to just go PlayStation.
Metallix87
Member
I honestly think the Final Fantasy series, as a whole, is in decline, and not just because of 13.
Agreed, and I think Sony releasing a PS Vita 2 is less likely than them just not releasing another portable.
So you expect it to do better everywhere. Good luck.
FF13 actually did pretty well so that may be pretty hard for SE to pull off.
SwiftDeath
Member
That's true enough. I certainly was on the wrong side of the fence for that one. Albeit I'm not sure anyone quite expected such a lack of any announcements at all from Japan for the PS4
Hmm I honestly don't know how I feel about mobile's impact on home consoles elsewhere besides Japan. I strongly believe the a large portion of the Wii audience probably migrated to mobile gaming but I'm not yet convinced that the demographics for PS3 and 360 are so easily migrated. Minecraft still sells bucket loads continuously on the 360. This suggests that not only do children [or I suppose better put a younger audience] still desire a superior experience [as Minecraft is still available on mobile and sells very well there] but parents are willing to pay for it even with easily accessible versions available.
I do think a large systematic problem in the industry is how the AAA portion is operating and that we could likely see an implosion of sorts this gen. Software diversity from publishers is at an all-time low in my opinion simply in regards to the number of titles and I can't imagine that makes for as compelling a value prop for consumers.
I tend to have two predictions for where WW LTD for this gen of systems will end up at, one with the relative audience for PS/XB consoles remaining mainly the same and one with the market contracting in even that segment this gen.
Wouldn't it make more sense to look at overall hardware sales? The Wii likely made up for a lot of the PS2's lost marketshare I would imagine whereas the Gamecube never did that big of numbers to begin with
Metallix87
Member
Actually, I think at least part of that is that kids wanted to play Minecraft, and their parents let them use their 360 while they're not playing CoD and Madden. I don't think parents went rushing to buy 360's just so their kids could play Minecraft.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again: All that needs to happen is for a device like the Fire TV to get competent versions of Madden, FIFA, and Call of Duty, and the great migration to mobile in the West will begin.