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[medrew]

You all need to learn how imperfectly competitive markets work. Whenever one company drops a price, the other companies in the same market will as long as they are able to(Sony might not be able to). So the second Nintendo hears about Microsoft dropping the 360 price, expect them to react quickly. Nintendo will at least match the price drop and perhaps exceed it.

You need to learn that basic economic principles are not overly applicable to the everyday economy. They are abstractions based on assumptions over what should happen, not what happens.
As it currently stands Nintendo wouldn't force a price drop just because MS did, they'd only react if they weren't selling consoles; but they are.

Besides that the industry is such that competition isn't focused primarily on price. The consoles are not homogeneous, therefore other factors apart from price come into play when determing market share and sales.

The console market is not based on the Bertrand model that each firm would follow with a price cut in order to fully capture the market.

But hey, I think it's neato you decided to take high school economics.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Ok thats fine, i agree it's best to wait as well. I'm just going to say one last thing, ms have shipped 6 million and according to most people around here they have sold anywhere between 4.5-5 million. If they plan on shipping 4 million more to make 10 million i don't see how they will also sell 4 million with the sales figures we have seen. Worldwide if they do ship 10 million then their would be anything from 1.5-2.5 million xbox360's unsold.

Until tomorrow.

And Mrbob, did you miss the epic prediction thread? Let's not forget the trailer.

Wii.
PS3.
Gears of War.
FFVII.
Zelda.
360.

Anarchy. It will be the biggest since the Halo 2/GTA November 2004 thread, by a mile.

 

[charlequin]

Why do we insist on using NPD and a host of other incomplete trackers to post incomplete sales totals again?

Because sales trackers are the only people who have any idea how many consumers actually purchase a product?

I still agree with using shipped figures.

Well that's stupid. Shipped numbers can be artificially inflated by retailer confidence and seasonal ordering, and are displaced in time from when units actually hit consumer hands. They're useless for determining trends or gathering any useful information about how games and systems are actually moving into people's hands.

 

[jarrod]

Well that's stupid. Shipped numbers can be artificially inflated by retailer confidence and seasonal ordering, and are displaced in time from when units actually hit consumer hands. They're useless for determining trends or gathering any useful information about how games and systems are actually moving into people's hands.

Er... not to mention differing standards as to what "shipped" means for Sony versus Nintendo/Microsoft.

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

I hear a ton of 2.9 but does anybody have reliable Europe numbers? Or no?

 

[The Innocent X]

Well that's stupid. Shipped numbers can be artificially inflated by retailer confidence and seasonal ordering, and are displaced in time from when units actually hit consumer hands. They're useless for determining trends or gathering any useful information about how games and systems are actually moving into people's hands.

If the shipped numbers were actually as far out as many people on GAF believed, then eventually the two would have to tally up, as you can`t go on shipping into retailers forever. There are only so many units that you can lose down the back of the sofa

 

[dammitmattt]

Quit bitching everyone. A successful Microsoft is good for the industry, especially as Nintendo moves out of the high-end market. With Nintendo doing their own thing, Sony and Microsoft both need to be successful so they will continue to push one another.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Which works fine, until we want to compare anything with the PlayStations. Regional sales tracking is basically the only way to get any accurate insight into competitive game platforms... using shipment data only skews any aatempted comparison unrealistically in Sony's favor (see: PSP vs DS).

Its obviously doing Microsoft a favour too.

 

[jarrod]

Its obviously doing Microsoft a favour too.

Er... howso? They account for units the same way as Nintendo (ie: in transit to retail) where as Sony accounts differently (ie: left from manufacturing plant).

 

[dirtmonkey37]

November NPD numbers come in tomorrow, amirite?

 

[maynerd]

Until tomorrow.

And Mrbob, did you miss the epic prediction thread? Let's not forget the trailer.

Wii.
PS3.
Gears of War.
FFVII.
Zelda.
360.

Anarchy. It will be the biggest since the Halo 2/GTA November 2004 thread, by a mile.

You forgot DS and PSP!

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Er... howso? The account for units the same way as Nintendo.

Its doing them a favour to save the face because they don't have 10m or even close to that when the other companies launched their consoles.

Nintendo numbers are going to be shipped = sold, probably also for Sony since they can't even get 30k PS3weekly to Japan...while Microsoft has a good chunk shipped through every market.

In other words, Wii doesnt have to reach 10m to overcome X360....Wii most likely will surpass X360 even though shipped data will still show X360 having a healthy lead.

 

[Nameless]

LFMAO@ All the nintendo fans coming in trolling.

You didn't see people come interupt your "ZOMG A LAUNCH SYSTEM SOLD 400K, AND PEOPLE REALLY LIKE ZELDA" circle jerk did you?

****!

 

[Mr.Potato Head]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061206/tc_nm/microsoft_xbox360_dc_1


Microsoft to ship over 10 million Xbox 360 units

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq:MSFT - news) on Wednesday said expects to have shipped more than 10 million units of its new Xbox 360 video game console to retailers by the end of this holiday season.

"This holiday, we expect to have sold in excess of 10 million units worldwide and an expected catalog of 160 high-definition games," a Microsoft spokeswoman said.

That "sold" number refers to units "sold into retail" and refers to units in transit, units sitting in store inventories and machines sold to consumers, the spokeswoman said.

Microsoft has previously forecast global shipments of 10 million by the end of the calendar year, as well as shipments of 13 million by 15 million by the end of its 2007 fiscal year that ends June 30.

The world's biggest software maker offered no further updates.

Thats awesome bro, you know im really glad the 360 is doing great. Iv'e always been a fan of all three big hardare makers and still am but i really wanted to see xbox and xbox 360 succeed. I dont know if its because i wanted to see an American Made console kick ass or because of the type of games that are on the xbox consoles. .... maybe a bit of both.


As i said im a huge fan of all three console hardware makers.. Nintendo, Sony and of course MS. Im just really glad to see MS selling 360's .... its an incredible console technically and has a nice game library to boot.

 

[jarrod]

Its doing them a favour to save the face because they don't have 10m or even close to that when the other companies launched their consoles.

Nintendo numbers are going to be shipped = sold, probably also for Sony since they can't even get 30k PS3weekly to Japan...while Microsoft has a good chunk shipped through every market.

In other words, Wii doesnt have to reach 10m to overcome X360....Wii most likely will surpass X360 even though shipped data will still show X360 having a healthy lead.

The problem with that thinking though is that at the time they'd be presented, it'd be basically impossible for "production shipments" to be sold through. They're not even at retail yet.

It gets doubly bad for Nintendo then admittedly though, who's shipments tend to run very close to sold through regardless. Particularly in Japan, where DS estimated sell through sometimes even overshot NCL's own shipment figures iirc.

 

[jarrod]

LFMAO@ All the nintendo fans coming in trolling.

You didn't see people come interupt your "ZOMG A LAUNCH SYSTEM SOLD 400K, AND PEOPLE REALLY LIKE ZELDA" circle jerk did you?

****!

Er... generalizations ftl.

 

[C4Lukins]

Because sales trackers are the only people who have any idea how many consumers actually purchase a product?



Well that's stupid. Shipped numbers can be artificially inflated by retailer confidence and seasonal ordering, and are displaced in time from when units actually hit consumer hands. They're useless for determining trends or gathering any useful information about how games and systems are actually moving into people's hands.

How are they useless? Sure it will not give you a perfectly accurate outlook on total sales to consumers, but it gives you a good indication of demand from retailers which the retailers determine by demand from consumers. It is not like retailers are going to have an extra 10,000 360's sitting in the back of the store and continue to order new ones daily.

It is a better indicator then a lot of the blind predictions people are making. Where you have people adding the NPD numbers and Media Creates numbers, then using those to somehow predict Canadian and European numbers, and then throwing some random number of sales at the rest of Asia and every other country the 360 is shipping to.

 

[jetjevons]

Thats awesome bro, you know im really glad the 360 is doing great. Iv'e always been a fan of all three big hardare makers and still am but i really wanted to see xbox and xbox 360 succeed. I dont know if its because i wanted to see an American Made console kick ass or because of the type of games that are on the xbox consoles. .... maybe a bit of both.


As i said im a huge fan of all three console hardware makers.. Nintendo, Sony and of course MS. Im just really glad to see MS selling 360's .... its an incredible console technically and has a nice game library to boot.

Joke character? Or someone who actually enjoys gaming on all three systems and is pleased to hear some good news for MS? YOU DECIDE!

 

[medrew]

LFMAO@ All the nintendo fans coming in trolling.

You didn't see people come interupt your "ZOMG A LAUNCH SYSTEM SOLD 400K, AND PEOPLE REALLY LIKE ZELDA" circle jerk did you?

****!

:lol at the source of this post

 

[Rancid Mildew]

LFMAO@ All the nintendo fans coming in trolling.

You didn't see people come interupt your "ZOMG A LAUNCH SYSTEM SOLD 400K, AND PEOPLE REALLY LIKE ZELDA" circle jerk did you?

****!

Don't see much trolling going on in this thread unless reasonable predictions count as trolling. There isn't a single post in this thread that's phrased as ZOMG etc.

Further, it was clear to me that people were making that point in Nintendo threads.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

The problem with that thinking though is that at the time they'd be presented, it'd be basically impossible for "production shipments" to be sold through. They're not even at retail yet.

It gets doubly bad for Nintendo then admittedly though, who's shipments tend to run very close to sold through regardless. Particularly in Japan, where DS estimated sell through sometimes even overshot NCL's own shipment figures iirc.

Yes but you miss that the situation favours Microsoft...you even said so when you say it gets double bad for Nintendo because they can't keep the shipped battle with Microsoft.

Anyway, shipped data isn't really important because we know how they are doing in reality. We know PSP is not where Sony numbers put it at. We know X360 isn't that far away from other consoles, we know DS is pretty much on par with its shipped data.

This shipped battle just tries to keep bad news away for some months...like PSP overproducing when it wasn't selling that well and now they have to reduce the productions because there wasn't that demand...months ago.

 

[GhaleonEB]

You forgot DS and PSP!

True, but I was just listing things that are landing for the first time ever. The PSP/DS battle is a regular of those threads. The mystery of how many PS3's Sony managed to move? Did Gears move some hardware for MS? Fun times ahead.

Of course, the DS/PSP battle will be magnified due to the holidays. Safe to say I think there's something for everyone in there!

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

Er... generalizations ftl.

Yeah, it's obvious it's junior members.

 

[charlequin]

How are they useless? Sure it will not give you a perfectly accurate outlook on total sales to consumers, but it gives you a good indication of demand from retailers which the retailers determine by demand from consumers.

Right, but there are a lot of vagaries in terms of systems shipped that have nothing to do with demand. How much a company actually produces, what pricing structures they have in place for different retailers, when they count units as "shipped" (different for each company), how long between ship-date and arrival on the store floor, etc. They're not useless numbers because they do give us a picture of another part of the sales chain (and because they do provide a hard ceiling on total sales), but they're useless for gauging consumer demand because depending on all those factors the actual sales of a console could be anywhere between the shipped number and 0. There's no way to gauge this information whatsoever just from shipped numbers, so they're not useful when the topic is sales to consumers.

It is a better indicator then a lot of the blind predictions people are making. Where you have people adding the NPD numbers and Media Creates numbers, then using those to somehow predict Canadian and European numbers, and then throwing some random number of sales at the rest of Asia and every other country the 360 is shipping to.

Well.. yes. Yes, saying "MS shipped 10 million 360s" is better than that. What's better than either is rationally acknowledging which areas we do and do not have sales for and working with ranges basaed on all of our data points.

 

[Maridia]

Numbers like these would be pretty huge for the console war. What Sony needs is a slow build-up, allowing for snowballing Blu-Ray hype and more penetration of HDTVs into homes, justifying the premium price tag for consumers. These numbers will help to cement 360 as the primary development platform for most developers for the forseeable future, almost ensuring that the PS3's areas of expertise will rarely be utilized in non-exclusives, which look to be increasingly common this gen due to higher dev costs. One silver lining would be the lack of a built-in HD-DVD player in the 360, rendering the effects on the format war fairly negligible.

 

[jarrod]

Yes but you miss that the situation favours Microsoft...you even said so when you say it gets double bad for Nintendo because they can't keep the shipped battle with Microsoft.

In the short term, sure it's a problem favoring 360... but the situation inherently favors the PlayStations. If all 3 used the same metric for counting units, I think it'd be fine generally, the market would naturally shake out any overestimation on the part of retail or the hardware makers... but as usual Sony has to go and pee in the pool. :lol

 

[Norse]

i think the core 30 will stay and drive price downward premium will stay as is...larger hdd will be mad available at retail but not in unit. A new hd dvd black 360 for 399 will be introduced after core and premium get 1st price drop. Games will remain on dvd only.

whats so hard to believe about 10 million shipped? 4.5 or so have already sold...they hope to sell 3 million in North America this xmas so that would mean at least 3.5 million for stores...that's 8 million right there....add another 2 million for xmas for rest of world and thats 10 million.

you get it now doicare? frack

 

[GhaleonEB]

i think the core 30 will stay and drive price downward premium will stay as is...larger hdd will be mad available at retail but not in unit. A new hd dvd black 360 for 399 will be introduced after core and premium get 1st price drop. Games will remain on dvd only.

whats so hard to believe about 10 million shipped? 4.5 or so have already sold...they hope to sell 3 million in North America this xmas so that would mean at least 3.5 million for stores...that's 8 million right there....add another 2 million for xmas for rest of world and thats 10 million.

you get it now doicare? frack

It shouldn't be hard to get. I'd say ~4.5m was sold at the end of September when MS had shipped 6m. I'd expect a similar in the channel by the end of this quarter. Tomorrow will be revealing. If MS does manage 700k in November NPD the gloves are off.

 

[Pimpwerx]

If the shipped numbers were actually as far out as many people on GAF believed, then eventually the two would have to tally up, as you can`t go on shipping into retailers forever. There are only so many units that you can lose down the back of the sofa

Exactly what I was saying. But I guess shipping figures don't lend themselves to pissing contests online. :lol PEACE.

 

[Norse]

It shouldn't be hard to get. I'd say ~4.5m was sold at the end of September when MS had shipped 6m. I'd expect a similar in the channel by the end of this quarter. Tomorrow will be revealing. If MS does manage 700k in November NPD the gloves are off.

I think the number will be closer to 500k.....but if they do 700k in november, and say 1,250,000 in december, sony has lost north america..I honestly already think they have. Nintendo is a wildcard...no idea what is going to happen with wii...will it continue to sll like hotcakes? and will 3rd parties ever sell enough software on them to make it worth their while?

 

[GhaleonEB]

Exactly what I was saying. But I guess shipping figures don't lend themselves to pissing contests online. :lol PEACE.

Shipping figures are great, especially for getting a world-wide tally. The challenge is that not everyone defines shipped the same way, in particular the gap between MS and Sony. Sources like NPD and Media Create are good because they cover a specific market, and because it's an apples-apples comparison.

Both sets of data have value, which is why the shipped total from Sony and MS are discussed extensively when they updated the figures. Of course, a lot of that discussion is from people dismissing them because they're shipped. :lol

 

[Wulfer]

WoW how this board has done a 180 spin! We've gone from "Sheeeya right Xbox 360 has a fat chance in hell of becoming the market leader to 360's userbase will probably convince 3rd party developers to make it the lead development platform." I mean I always gave Microsoft a chance at this and I at one time thought Sony would rule with Blu-ray but things change. If Sony knew of it manufacturing problems why didn't they just save face fix the problems and come out a few years later. Yes that would give the lead platform to Microsoft and Nintendo but, the general public would still want to know what Sony was working on and costs might have gotten some cuts some on the consumer end,(to get the price down) instead of this mess their in now... It really is Ironic PS3 has in one way or another become the Sega Saturn with a highend movie player (not a bad thing but not a profitable thing)! It's just sad how all this has happened to Sony so quickly and Sony continues to get bad press day after day from other devisions (ie. music, laptop battery issue and now the camera thing).

[edit: sorry I wasn't trying to make lists I was just trying to figure out where Sony can go from here seeing Microsoft's hand and Nintendo's. (which look really hard to beat)]

This was my real question[below] My mind just started racing on the why and the if's above!

While everyone is waiting on tomorrow's hardware and software numbers will we get the HD-DVD addon drive numbers too? Anyone know?

 

[fortified_concept]

.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Great question about the HD-DVD drive. NPD does track accesories by SKU, so I think NPD will track it. I doubt that we'll see those, since we never see any others.

 

[Deku]

Besides that the industry is such that competition isn't focused primarily on price. The consoles are not homogeneous, therefore other factors apart from price come into play when determing market share and sales.

The console market is not based on the Bertrand model that each firm would follow with a price cut in order to fully capture the market.

But hey, I think it's neato you decided to take high school economics.

Well the games industry in North America has in the past is based on a oligopolistic business models that engage in forms of indirect collusion. There's usually a price leader (not to confuse the term with a manufacturer with an advantage in price) who everyone follows. If the leader drops the price, the competitors (followers) follow suit.

Also, although the individual consoles are highly differentiated in the minds of hardcore gamers, it is not to the public and casual consumers of games.

The Wii is probably the first truly differentiated console in the video game space in the public's mind and it remains to be seen what sort of business model might grow out of it. It is however too early to say that the days of collusive pricing is behind us.

That said I want to get back to the thread OP. So... what is the 360 ww LTD right now? Before November numbers are added.

Thanks.

 

[Odysseus]

Great question about the HD-DVD drive. NPD does track accesories by SKU, so I think NPD will track it. I doubt that we'll see those, since we never see any others.

If it's worth crowing about, Microsoft will crow. If it's worth eating crow about, on the other hand.... well, Sony might just spill those beans. Either way, we'll probably get a good idea.

 

[Wulfer]

It's like you're begging me to make a list of DC-X360 similarities. I won't bite though, I'm better than you.

Look fortified, it would do you no good so don't bother! Microsoft is not in the same universe as Sega's financial status. Now you might compare Sega financial state when the Saturn came out and Sony current financial situation! (being serious) Afterall Saturn help kill the rest of Sega and now Sony's giving away GTHD reminds me of the (Daytona Usa,Virtua Cop, Virtua Fighter 2 pack-in) remember that?

 

[Mojovonio]

It's like you're begging me to make a list of DC-X360 similarities. I won't bite though, I'm better than you.

DO IT!

YOUR FANBOYISM COMPELS YOU!

 

[fortified_concept]

So you're saying WULFER who actually did it is a fanboy? Man stop accussing people like that. Nevertheless you must be proud of me since I resisted the urge.

Spoiler

I find it strange though you felt compeled to attack me while you didn't seem to care about WULFER's post. Aren't you the one who's desperately trying to look objective? I gotta say you're doing a pretty bad job man.

 

[choc_cake]

considering how many times they've had to adjust their forecasts downwards, the odd upward movement shouldn't be that surprising. Isn't that still less than or slower than their original original forecasts?

They only did it once from what I can remember. Now sony on the other hand with the PS3 is another story altogether.

 

[Mojovonio]

So you're saying WULFER who actually did it is a fanboy? Man stop accussing people like that. Nevertheless you must be proud of me since I resisted the urge.

Spoiler

I find it strange though you felt compeled to attack me while you didn't seem to care about WULFER's post. Aren't you the one who's desperately trying to look objective? I gotta say you're doing a pretty bad job man.

No, not at all. I have nothing against Wulfer. I attacked you cause I don't like you. Its pretty simple actually.

 

[fortified_concept]

No, not at all. I have nothing against Wulfer. I attacked you cause I don't like you. Its pretty simple actually.

Yeah and it's pretty obvious why you don't like me. And -like it or not- you did indirectly say that WULFER is a fanboy. Just fyi.

 

[Mojovonio]

Yeah and it's pretty obvious why you don't like me.

Is it? That's what I was striving for.

 

[Wulfer]

Sorry fortified I wasn't trying to make lists I edited my post can you edit yours?

 

[choc_cake]

It's like you're begging me to make a list of DC-X360 similarities. I won't bite though, I'm better than you.

I can think of only three.

1) First on the Market for that Generation.
2) Online abilities with a network.
3) Great games that are fun.

Everything else that you were probably thinking does not
fit and thus does not make any sense.

 

[choc_cake]

Yeah and it's pretty obvious why you don't like me. And -like it or not- you did indirectly say that WULFER is a fanboy. Just fyi.

Sure, but everyone knows on this forum that you are not exactly a saint when it comes to that stuff either. (for example, posting on a thread that has nothing to do with your precious PS3).

I'm just saying...

 

[fortified_concept]

Sorry fortified I wasn't trying to make lists I edited my post can you edit yours?

OK done

 

[Mojovonio]

Yeah and it's pretty obvious why you don't like me. And -like it or not- you did indirectly say that WULFER is a fanboy. Just fyi.

No, i was pretty clear in my statement.

 

[X26]

Sure, but everyone knows on this forum that you are not exactly a saint when it comes to that stuff either. (for example, posting on a thread that has nothing to do with your precious PS3).

I'm just saying...

What now?!

 

[GhaleonEB]

holy train wreck batman...