SwiftDeath
Member
Right but the point was not to stop it from spreading as that's clearly a fool's errand. The point was to hopefully slow down how fast it spread, at least that's how I interpreted most of it.
Ah well NPD threads were fun.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
NPD Sales Results for September 2014 [Up1: Smash/HW/MK8, Destiny stats, 3DS HW]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
- Status
Right but the point was not to stop it from spreading as that's clearly a fool's errand. The point was to hopefully slow down how fast it spread, at least that's how I interpreted most of it.
Ah well NPD threads were fun.
FF Seraphim
Member
That was the entire point if you look at her post on page 92 post, 4580. She states that is the main reason. People just got upset over it for no reason on the prediction thread.
I had to downgrade to gaf silver to find it but thanks.
Is there someone I can direct my hatred? Is this ethomaz one of them?
ethomaz
Banned
You can hate me if you wish
even without reason to
If you weren't part of the problem then say so. Your last couple of posts are helping though.
But anyway thanks for ruining a good thing whoever you may be jerks.
bigboss370
Member
I remember Aqua earlier in the thread saying she was feeling uncharacteristically generous for whatever reason, that's why this time she gave so many leaks.
And then all the shit happened
And then all the shit happened
hodayathink
Member
I remember Aqua earlier in the thread saying she was feeling uncharacteristically generous for whatever reason, that's why this time she gave so many leaks.
And then all the shit happened
I think she honestly knew that all this was coming to an end soon anyway, which is both why she was being generous with this month's numbers and why she was trying to delay the end as much as possible with the hidden numbers. It seems like NPD's reaction to Gamecrate made her (and some of the other leakers as well) a lot more apprehensive about being as public with their leaks as they had previously been. If NPD were to actually decide it was going to crack down on GAF, there's not a thing any of us could do about it, and if they actually caught the leakers I'd imagine the punishment would be more severe than any one person could probably handle.
Orthogonal
Member
Agreed, That's the real concern here. So many folks just pop in to get a quick fix without realizing the risks certain people are taking to provide them with information that is ultimately from their perspective insignificant. NPD Discussions are interesting and can be fun for the niche crowd here, but it's not worth someone losing their job.
SMOK3Y
Generous Member
😂
Monster Zero
Junior Member
Jesus, I didn't know videogame numbers were so serious, don't we get box office numbers weekly lol. The gaming industry is so.....obtuse
SwiftDeath
Member
Lately there have been stock issues in the US and while I don't think it was ever completely OOS or anything it was even less available then normal until this month it would seem
One could theorize that with Sony rolling out the massive PS4 Destiny bundle shipments to stores they were able to convince or strongarm retailers into accepting some Vita. Just a theory though
hodayathink
Member
It was in stock. Up until about late August/early September, even though there were only basically 3 places that still carried Vita stock (Amazon, Best Buy's website, and Gamestop), those three places would continually be out of stock for weeks at a time, and then sell the stock they got in a day or two. Last month was the first month I've seen since arguably Jan/Feb where the Vita actually stayed in stock for pretty much the entire month.
Stilton Disco
Member
Given the rate of sales to reach 10m by June, and similar ramping up of sales worldwide as we saw in the September NPD results, I'd guess around 13-14m WW for PS4 by this point.
The XO is harder to make a stab at given the lack of hard numbers, but when you take into account the UK and NA must be making up almost all their sales I'd be amazed if they'd hit 7m yet.
StealthGoblin
Member
It is ahead everywhere except China where the PS4 hasn't launched yet.
Everytime an article pops up with EU numbers, Xbox One is significantly behind in each country.
I would imagine the closest country between the two would be the UK but that is mainly because Microsoft and deals have effectively taken £120 off of the launch price in less than a year. Sony haven't moved on price yet.
I am particularly interested in what stance Microsoft/investors etc will take if/when the Xbox One's sales trajectory falls behind that of the Xbox 360. Their only real saving grace early on this year was that they were outpacing the 360 and therefore considered it a success.
SwiftDeath
Member
I see no reason to expect PS4 to be nearly that high WW at this point and PS4 hit 10M as of August 10th, not June.
Or rather cumulative WW LTD for PS4 would likely be between 11.8M and 12M as of October 4th
Welfare
Member
I highly doubt the One is near 6 million as of October 4. The Xbox One is most likely at 5.6-5.8 as of October 4. Will break 6 million this month, and then probably end the year at 8,5-9 million WW.
PS4 is at most 12 million WW right now.
Celestial Mortal
Member
Do the copies taken by people as a part of free game with XboxOne count towards as a sale or not?
Yeah, while I think 11million is being very conservative, 13 million is a bit too much.
Stilton Disco
Member
Ah, my mistake, must have got confused with which event the 10m announcement was at, soz!
So yeah, maybe 12m-ish now then.
And given that, yeah, the XO most likely would be sub 6m.
StealthGoblin
Member
Yes. Retailer bundles (console in box + additional games) count the additional game as an individual sale.
So a PS4 destiny bundle (with destiny in the PS4 box) wouldn't include the Destiny copy as a sale on NPD.
However
An Xbox One console + Destiny game added by a retailer would include the Xbox One and Destiny in the NPD figures.
What's the relationship between Xbone and PS4 sales that you adjust the Xbone guess as well?
Coulomb_Barrier
Member
Probably already past 2:1 at this point I think.
Celestial Mortal
Member
This explains why Destiny charted higher for the XBO in the software sales but if the Destiny bundle for PS4 get counted, then pretty much Destiny would've charted higher for PS4 but alas...
Stilton Disco
Member
Mostly just where I got confused with how early the big 10m milestone announcement was and remembering estimates for when that happened for what the XO would have been at, plus the WW sales have been hovering near 2:1 in PS4's favour for a while, so if I overestimated one I would thus have also overestimated the other.
Nightengale
Member
It's still highly impressive for XB1 regardless, because both consoles have an established install base difference of 700k-ish before September, and still XB1 SKU manages to be highly competitive with PS4's SKU, even after taking into account the bundle sales.
It's a nod to XB1's audience, I guess. It's smaller, but still has a stronger leaning to FPSes in general.
Unfortunately we won't get a break down of COD:AW sales this time, because the last COD it was 51:49 in favor of Xbone after several months. (Launch month had a higher difference.)
Nightengale
Member
I'm kinda expecting XB1 SKU to does better at launch, but by rough the same margins as we saw with Ghost at its later months ( instead of a higher difference ), and PS4 to overtake XB1 within 6 months, but only by a small margin.
Stilton Disco
Member
This.
Really, there's only so long the XO's audiences predilection for FPS's can compensate for the ever increasing gap in their instal base. By next years COD I'd be surprised if the PS4 doesn't come out on top from day one.
I expect the PS4 to be the first entry for COD:AW in the Top 10 Games list,.
To overcome a 700k+ lead and the lack of some sales from people just picking up a bundle instead of individual console + game would be very interesting and show that Xbox is even more strongly associated with FPS than I already think it is.
Nightengale
Member
Yup, this is my go-to-prediction as well.
On the assumption that the gap continues to grow all the way till holiday next year, I'd say BLOPS3 will lean in favor of PS4 vs XB1 from launch till LTD... as well as any XB1 co-marketed game. Except maybe Titanfall 2.
With that being said, I predict XB1 will still rack a noticably higher attach rate for FPSes than PS4. PS4 will only win it out by sheer volume of install base.
SwiftDeath
Member
It's interesting but with the bundle sales included, Destiny has almost the exact same attach rate on both consoles, the difference is basically negligible.
Maybe tomorrow when I'm less depressed I'll post ramblings about where I think the XB1 is WW
Maybe tomorrow when I'm less depressed I'll post ramblings about where I think the XB1 is WW
Nightengale
Member
Wait, what?
XB1 and PS4 has a million difference of install base though. The attach rate is higher for XB1 because of that.
ethomaz
Banned
He added 300k units for PS4... they will have close attach rate.
The difference between the two is small 35% vs 33% so add 300k for PS4 will close the attach rate.
SwiftDeath
Member
Nightengale
Member
Edit : Nevermind I was stupid. The post below has my evidence-of-shame for my terrible maths.
ethomaz
Banned
Using 2500k units for Destiny.
XB1: 875k / 3500k
PS4: 825k + 300k / 4500k
Do the maths... it is the exactly same.
hodayathink
Member
The other posters have it right, the difference between the two numbers is somewhere around 1-2 percent, About 1/4 of the owners of each console have bought Destiny.
Nightengale
Member
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
XB1 should be number 1. Don't forget that word of mouth snowballing effect.
Time to embrace ********. Such a stupid argument and now we have nothing.
Acquiescence
Member
So that was an electric month for the PS4 then. Shit seems unstoppable, and that's even before the big league exclusives have made it out yet. Imagine what Uncharted 4 is going to do for that thing.
ethomaz
Banned
Imagine GT7
- Status