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[Mr.Potato Head]

Originally Posted by AnIco:
It's over for Microsoft, period. Microsoft lost their last ace, and that's the end of the 360's hopes and dreams.

It's not hyperbole, it's not fanboy drivel. It is LITERALLY it for 360. Microsoft has nothing left, nothing they can reveal tomorrow would fix the hole now created. There is no reason left for any one, hardcore or casual, to substantively invest in a 360. Except if they want to play Bungie's titles. Which will also come to the PS3 anyway once their Halo contract is up at some point.

The age of Microsoft in the US is done.

Originally Posted by AnIco:
Hey whatever you think!

Sony took the last reason away that anyone would NEED to own a 360 over a PS3 (except NETFLIX LOL GAMING), and the cavalcade of tiny titles that will be nice but won't stir up any sales is not going to salvage the unreliable, underdesigned RROD behemoth that was 360.

There may be some hardcore gamers that stick around. Some did it for Gamecube. But the last bell tolled. Maybe next decade.

Originally Posted by AnIco:
It does not put any ideas of PS3 eating into 360 sales to rest.

First, Sony had no big software released in October. Microsoft had a 1.5 million seller from the blockbuster Halo franchise, plus a $100 price cut, plus a $50 rebate on top of that. If anything, 350k seems rather low compared to what the Halo franchise used to pull. The YoY figures are also misleading since last year Microsoft had nothing released in September. Expect 360 sales to decline in October since Forza 3 will probably be a huge sales bust.

Even assuming Sony and Microsoft sell roughly even going forward in the US, Sony will easily cut into 360's WW lead when taking into account Europe and Japan. Microsoft relied on beating the PS3 by large margins in the US in order to just stay even on a worldwide basis.

Next month (heck, the rest of this year AND next) is going to be fun for Jtyettis, Keikoku & crew, can't wait!

Originally Posted by AnIco:
Elite dropped $100 this September and it had a $50 rebate on top of that too, not to mention a huge, huge seller like Halo.

360 will be down, YoY, next month. Count on it.

Originally Posted by AnIco:
This is true. I think Microsoft is pretty content with their ongoing 3rd place position now globally. There's really nothing they can do about it, so they might as well just suck it up. Price cuts won't save it.

Natal has a chance. That's really their only hope. They're banking the next 4+ years on NATAL, which is a pretty risky move...one that paid off for Nintendo, and one that Microsoft looks at in envy.

I think NATAL is going to be a pretty epic failure though. RARE is apparently creating the bulk of the initial software for it, and every single Rare title this gen has been a huge sales bomb and hasn't managed to be popular with a broader demographic. I don't expect NATAL to change their fortunes. I also don't ever see the Xbox 360 as being a 'casual' machine catering to people other than the ~12-16 year old male demographic.

Originally Posted by AnIco:
Does not bode well for Forza 3 next month.

Originally Posted by AnIco:
Wow those GT numbers are horrible. But it's a portable version that wasn't well received. People are waiting for GT5 for their sim experiences.

Forza 3 numbers are going to be downright awful next month. I hope Microsoft doesn't get rid of Turn 10 like they did Ensemble studios. Ensemble's Halo Wars sold like 700+k in the US, great sales, and Microsoft ditched them for whatever reason. Forza 3 will do much worse than Halo Wars and probably cost a whole lot more to produce.

Originally Posted by AnIco:
Keep the faith alive, Jtyettis. You're the same guy that said his game store in Alabama had shown that the PS3 slim wasn't going to be as big as many people expected, right? Same guy that said most of the big bump in PS3 sales would be accounted for in the August NPDs and that September wouldn't be as big as many had imagined. Same guy that thinks PS3 is going to see a repeat of 2007 performance levels. Same guy that believes that November and December will be back to normal for the PS3 in the US, right? Funny guy. Can't wait for the epic November and December tears that you will shed.

When I talked about Microsoft's third place position I was talking about ongoing sales worldwide. 360 had a huge price cut last fall and guess what? Global sales were roughly the same as the PS3. This is the best Microsoft could do with a $200 pricing advantage worldwide. So yeah, they haven't really grown 'leaps and bounds' since the price cut, at least not relative to the PS3. Now that the PS3 is within $100, expect rapid gains worldwide. I predict that worldwide, PS3 will never dip back to selling roughly "on par" with the 360 for the remainder of this generation, and if it does it will be short lived.

Sony will never overtake MS in the US, but Microsoft had to sell significantly more in the US just to keep even worldwide. I don't expect MS to sell significantly more in the US anytime soon, if ever. It's only a matter of time before Microsoft becomes third place globally in total install base and not just ongoing sales.

Originally Posted by AnIco:
Forza 3 is going to get overlooked and many second iterations of racers in a gen fail to live up to sales expectations, even amongst the big franchises like Gran Turismo.

Just look at PGR4...PGR3 had decent sales but 4 was a bomba. I expect Forza 3 to do worse than Forza 2 for its first month NPD sales.

:lol

You have to much time invested into MS.

No doubt :lol

I actually feel sorry for AnIco because his insecurity sticks out like a sore thumb..

Dont get me wrong..im all for seeing each console do well but i get a kick out of guys like AnIco claiming the 360 is dead now over one month when another console had a major price drop..wow..all his posts have been sorta creepy bizarre

 

[zero_suit]

Sure. All I'm saying is, its not going to get that high again with Wii. But they can re-create their success with a new product.

Yeah, but it doesn't need to since they make an ungodly amount of profit on it. There's no need for another product.

 

[Zuhzuhzombie!!]

Whoosh.

Yes, your theory that developers not in the Top 10 face some kind of hardships, or that they someday will have to compete with the large developers did fly pretty high there.

This is the second doom and gloom post of yours I've seen here.

Tell me. Is Nintendo Teh Doomed because they're no longer selling Gangbusters, but just selling Reall Well?

 

[Safe Bet]

I've made this argument hundreds of times; how can we point to a model where the top 5 percent of gamemakers prosper and say that it's sustainable?

I don't know enough to try and argue this topic but to ask me and everyone else to give up 'big budget gaming' is unreasonable imo.

We all want MORE in our games, even you.

 

[TheRagnCajun]

Yeah, but it doesn't need to since they make an ungodly amount of profit on it. There's no need for another product.

There's always a need for another product =)

 

[Zuhzuhzombie!!]

I don't know enough to try and argue this topic but to ask me and everyone else to give up 'big budget gaming' is unreasonable imo.

The idea that a developer/publisher has to compete at those levels or they're irrelevant is pretty unreasonable.

 

[zero_suit]

There's always a need for another product =)

Obviously, but not right now..

 

[Somnid]

There's always a need for another product =)

Worked for PSP.

 

[Bizzyb]

PS3 numbers are disappointing, going off the GAF hype meter the Slim should have destroyed everyone in NPD's.

Wii is still a rip off at 199$, wake me up when there's a WiiHD for 149$


360 numbers are meh but honestly I expected worse with the Wii price drop and PS3 relaunch.

ODST numbers are fine but could have been even better

Here's a Wake up Call for you; People like you will never buy a Wii, let alone a WiiHD, even if at $50 so please STFU with that "wake me up" BS.

 

[TheRagnCajun]

Obviously, but not right now..

Well not right now. I think what I originally posted came out wrong. I'm not saying Wii is doomed. If was to put my neck out on anything, it would be that Nintendo looking at their next product sooner than MS and Sony. They will likely be the first to launch their next home console.

 

[SlipperySlope]

The Wii's price drop was represented in this NPD?

 

[zero_suit]

The Wii's price drop was represented in this NPD?

Less than one week of it..

 

[Boombloxer]

I've made this argument hundreds of times; how can we point to a model where the top 5 percent of gamemakers prosper and say that it's sustainable? Repeatedly the top 10 for NPD consists of the same 8-10 companies; Nintendo, Sony, MS, Epic, Capcom, EA, Ubisoft, and Activision, with odd appearances by companies with higher budgets yet lower game yields like Bethesda and Sega. It would be all well and good if the market only consisted of these publishers, yet it's only been reduced to that. Good luck sniffing the top 10 if your budget can't compete with that of any of these devs, and if it can, but bombs anyway? Shutter your doors.

Yes, because if the game is not in the Top 10 NPD, then you have sold nothing. There's a reason why the greatest hits tier is 400k, and not 1 million.

The idea that a developer/publisher has to compete at those levels or they're irrelevant is pretty unreasonable.

His post also misses the fact that the smaller publishers simply don't have to compete at those levels just due to size. Good, mid-sized hits can consistently keep a smaller dev house afloat. Atlus, etc aren't going anywhere. I would argue that big budget games are going to always be left to the big boys, that doesn't mean the mid-sizes will dry up. The Dark Knight doesn't result in Juno not being made.

As far as the PSN/XBL explosion, NPD will release that data later, but just looking at the amount of quality games on both side, SSDHD/Geo Wars/Braid, etc, I'm willing to bet that they sell well enough to warrant additional development.

So, no gloom and doom.

PS3 numbers are disappointing, going off the GAF hype meter the Slim should have destroyed everyone in NPD's.

Wii is still a rip off at 199$, wake me up when there's a WiiHD for 149$


360 numbers are meh but honestly I expected worse with the Wii price drop and PS3 relaunch.

ODST numbers are fine but could have been even better

This post makes no sense. Wii isn't a ripoff at $200, I'm no fan of the Wii, and will never own one, but the price is fine.

PS3 at almost 500k is disappointing?

360 numbers are meh?

ODST could have been better?

:lol

 

[Zuhzuhzombie!!]

Also:

No doubt someone will shout XBLA/PSN in retort, however both services aren't exactly a haven for mid tier devs as they've been lauded. Show me the explosion of support on XBLA, PSN, or even WiiWare for devs that are bigger than indies, but smaller than mega companies like Activision?

EA, Konami, Capcom, LucasArts, Square, SNK, SEGA, Epic, Hudson and Valve are a few companies that have supported and found success on Live.

Not to mention the companies that have targeted cell phones and the Nintendo DS. id is dedicated to iPhone exclusivity. Epic bought Chair Entertainment specifically for Xbox Live development. Remember Shadow Complex? The Live game that sold a couple hundred thousand copies?

How about the independent developers that have found large success on the portable market and on Live/PSN?

Just because everyone doesn't jump into the pool immediately doesn't indicate much.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

X360 and Wii both have their biggest months since March, while PS3 has its biggest non-December month ever. Hell, this actually beats its first December by a little.

System: Average weeks ownership (Average purchase date)
Wii: 71.4 (May 21, 2008)
PS3: 72.9 (May 12, 2008)
X360: 97.0 (November 27, 2007)

TOTAL ownership in weeks
X360: 1.58 billion
Wii: 1.54 billion
PS3: 0.64 billion

X360 should still have the lead in October, but Wii will take it in November. So that's about when we'll probably see lifetime Wii software sales pass lifetime X360 software sales, too.

I think the people shitting on the revival of lightgun games are the same people shitting on the revival of 2D sidescrollers.

That makes me want an NSMB Wii / New Duck Hunt Wii combo.

Which is exactly my point. It's so much infinitely easier to pirate on the DS than it is on the PSP. Games are smaller, you can get the entire DS library for under like what? 3 GB?

I know you're being an exaggerator, but I can't even quite get my personal DS collection at under 3 GB.

Anyone could tell me the last month that Ps3 sales was higher taht Wii sales?

Prior to September 2009, never. The closest it came was January 2008 during post-holiday Wii shortages. Wii 274K, PS3 269K.

Sony fans are the calm, collected members of the sales age community.

The word you're looking for is shellshocked.

The Wii decline just shows that their prodcut is at the tail end of its lifecycle. Once YoY sales are consistently down its time to start seriously considering your next product.

Like how PS2's tail end started in 2003?

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Yes, your theory that developers not in the Top 10 face some kind of hardships, or that they someday will have to compete with the large developers did fly pretty high there.

This is the second doom and gloom post of yours I've seen here.

Tell me. Is Nintendo Teh Doomed because they're no longer selling Gangbusters, but just selling Reall Well?

*Sigh*

First off, you do realize I was responding to this quote:

big budget HD games are not a sustainable business model

right? You also realize that my argument was was leaning to the entire idea that mid tier and smaller developers need to have a place as well in order to have a prosperous eco system, correct?

I ask because both of your responses I just quoted fly in the exact opposite direction. So I say again;

Whoosh.

 

[tinfoilhatman]

Here's a Wake up Call for you; People like you will never buy a Wii, let alone a WiiHD, even if at $50 so please STFU with that "wake me up" BS.

Seriously take a deep breath or something

Honestly I'd love to have a Wii simply for group entertainment purposes and the famdam, but it'l be a cold day in h3ll before I spend 200$ on 8 year old technology thats mostly inferior to my original Xbox from 2001.

If MS and Sony take the Nintendo Wii strategy next Gen I'll eventually just go back to PC gaming, kinda a full circle.

 

[Opiate]

Yes, your theory that developers not in the Top 10 face some kind of hardships, or that they someday will have to compete with the large developers did fly pretty high there.

This is the second doom and gloom post of yours I've seen here.

Tell me. Is Nintendo Teh Doomed because they're no longer selling Gangbusters, but just selling Reall Well?

No, because they're still making an enormous, albeit decreased, profit.

I'm also quite doomy and gloomy, but that's because the companies Deacon is talking about -- EA, Activision, Sega, Take 2, Midway, Eidos, Atari/InfoGrames, Lucas Arts, Capcom, THQ -- are generally losing money. In some cases, a lot of money. In fact, the only two companies on the list I just gave that have actually made a profit this generation are Capcom and Activision.

Yes, I would absolutely be very negative about Nintendo if their company was shrinking. But it's not: it's just growing slightly less fast. I'm still kind of negative about them -- check recent Media Create threads where I was emphatically pressing the Wii's recent troubles -- but the absolute bottom line is that they're still making large profits and their company is larger than it was a year ago, or two years ago, or ten.

By contrast, not only do all of the aformentioned companies (again, save Capcom and Activision) have less assets now than they did at the beginning of the generation, but many have sizably lower head counts. Lucas Arts cut their staff in half. THQ cut theirs by a quarter. Midway doesn't even exist any more. Eidos was subsumed. EA layed of more than 1,000 employees.

There is concrete, legitimate reason to be negative about third parties these days. I'd say approximately 75% of the big ones are losing money, and that's a sign of a very unhealthy market.

 

[Version 3.0]

The hell?

Last year, the Wii had the highest annual NPD sales ever, with the exception of the DS. The only possible outcome was a YOY decline. I think the Wii will see a YOY increase in 2010, though (better line-up).

Actually, the Wii beat the DS last year, and it's the only system to ever break 10 million sold in one year (the DS was just shy). The DS is tracking slightly ahead of last year's Wii numbers, though, so it might hit 10m this year. The DS is also the single-month record holder; it's the only system to break 3m in one month (last Dec).

 

[zero_suit]

Actually, the Wii beat the DS last year, and it's the only system to ever break 10 million sold in one year (the DS was just shy). The DS is tracking slightly ahead of last year's Wii numbers, though, so it might hit 10m this year. The DS is also the single-month record holder; it's the only system to break 3m in one month (last Dec).

Jesus.

I thought the DS sales numbers in Dec. made up for the lead the Wii had.

 

[Zuhzuhzombie!!]

*Sigh*

First off, you do realize I was responding to this quote:



right? You also realize that my argument was was leaning to the entire idea that mid tier and smaller developers need to have a place as well in order to have a prosperous eco system, correct?

I ask because both of your responses I just quoted fly in the exact opposite direction. So I say again;

Whoosh.

Apologies, but I didn't understand the need to suggest competition with big budget titles when small to mid sized developers already have a sustainable place in the market.

GRIN is an example of the current market. If they had stuck with the mid level development they may have enjoyed more success in the vein of BC:Rearmed. Instead they wanted to compete with big budget games and they failed.

Developers are starting to realize this, hence the support that digital downloads are getting.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Perhaps Opiate explained it more eloquently than I did. However, as the market stands now, you have the top 5% jockeying for position, and the following tier losing money in a race to copy their ambitions and output.

The 360 and PS3 specifically were built to house these ecosystems, which invariably shuts out mid to low tier developers in the process. XBLA and PSN, while an affable way of trying to retain this lower tier market, isn't large enough to sustain and/or is not receiving the support necessary, and the entire industry is shrinking as a result.

It may be doom and gloom, but it's true. We can't really assume what would have happened had the Wii not existed or was another HD console like the PS360, however Nintendo being responsible for the majority of the growth of the console industry in the face of two more powerful competitors with higher budgest software libraries is pretty telling.

 

[rager]

Good job Sony. Now keep it up!!!

 

[Opiate]

To be honest, we don't really know how mid level developers are doing generally speaking, because they aren't publicly traded companies and thus aren't posting earnings reports.

We know some mid-tier developers, like Epic and Valve, are making good money. I think that's a certainty. So too is Bethesda.

We know a lot aren't. GRIN is an example you gave. Factor 5 is either gone or decimated. Free Radical is gone. Silicon Knights has downsized. Marvelous has downsized slightly. Brash is gone.

There have been an inordinant number of dev closings this generation, but that isn't necessarily a sign of ill health without knowing the precise numbers behind these decisions. I think it's reasonable to say that the overall market isn't very healthy, but beyond that it's difficult to say.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Actually, the Wii beat the DS last year, and it's the only system to ever break 10 million sold in one year (the DS was just shy). The DS is tracking slightly ahead of last year's Wii numbers, though, so it might hit 10m this year. The DS is also the single-month record holder; it's the only system to break 3m in one month (last Dec).

This calls for...

 

[Road]

Less than one week of it..

Actually, exactly one week of the new Wii price, or 20% of the reported period.

 

[KuwabaraTheMan]

The DS is going to have a monster holiday season. I could see it shattering that mark from last December, honestly.

 

[painful fart]

This NPD is a powerful blow to HDDVD.

Pachter is this your second account?

 

[Grampa Simpson]

This calls for...

The Wii is only down that much? The way we talk on this board, you'd think it's in some sort of deep shit.

 

[Opiate]

The Wii is only down that much? The way we talk on this board, you'd think it's in some sort of deep shit.

It's important to notice that it started ahead of last year, and then suddenly started falling behind at a pretty rapid pace.

 

[TheExecutive]

I expected around 500,000 units for the ps3. I also think that is a pretty good number. I was surprised at the 360 YOY increase, however their price drop seems to have made little impact. Oh, and the wii will dominate once again.

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

I also feel Wii games are over priced - the industry really needs to look at it's pricing, in general.

I mean I can get Fallout 3 for the PC; that gives me a 100 of hours of great gameplay for €25-50 (it was €50 when it came out). Or COD with it's online, easily a hundred hours of fun.

I'm just not getting the value from Wii games, even the polished ones. Only Nintendo games are usually worth the sticker price. I'd pay €25 for Dead Space EX and I feel that is fair.

IMO a vast majority of games are over priced.

The only games that should be $60 are your AAA Presentation Heavy, Hours per Hours of Gameplay Megathons (Monster Hunter, Grand Theft Auto, Final Fantasy, Etc.)

Most other games should be priced at $30 - $40 (depending on the presentation and content).

Also I agree a lot with what you and AniHawk are saying.

The problem is, despite these consoles having extremely high userbase numbers, there is just WAY TOO MUCH product on the market. Geez when you walk into a gamestop there are literaly hundreds of games to buy, not necessarily just the new releases.

People only have but so much money to spend and now we have 5 viable platforms to buy games from?? It was much simpler when it was either a SNES, Sega Genesis or a Gameboy (which had ZERO competition in its market).

The way this industry is going its going to eventually collapse onto itself. Now they try to save profits by cutting back on advertisements and relying on the magic of the internet (read; twitter/facebook) to do their marketing/advertising for them. Then when their game bombs b/c they didn't want to do proper marketing/advertising (to save profit margins) they wonder what went wrong.

It seems the the market and industry is getting a little too big to have so many competing consoles.

 

[goomba]

Honestly I'd love to have a Wii simply for group entertainment purposes and the famdam, but it'l be a cold day in h3ll before I spend 200$ on 8 year old technology thats mostly inferior to my original Xbox from 2001.

.

Nice troll. Come on , tell me how the Wii is 'mostly inferior' to the original Xbox.


Wii has a faster CPU, GPU along with more and much faster RAM than the xbox.

 

[Boombloxer]

The 360 and PS3 specifically were built to house these ecosystems, which invariably shuts out mid to low tier developers in the process. XBLA and PSN, while an affable way of trying to retain this lower tier market, isn't large enough to sustain and/or is not receiving the support necessary, and the entire industry is shrinking as a result.

And this is where you enter speculation, simply because you don't know the recoup cost for themid-level games, because they vary by dev house. Your assumption that the DD model isn't large enough to sustain is something that you can't say either, because you don't know the former.

We know a lot aren't. GRIN is an example you gave. Factor 5 is either gone or decimated. Free Radical is gone. Silicon Knights has downsized. Marvelous has downsized slightly. Brash is gone.

There have been an inordinant number of dev closings this generation, but that isn't necessarily a sign of ill health without knowing the precise numbers behind these decisions. I think it's reasonable to say that the overall market isn't very healthy, but beyond that it's difficult to say.

I'd argue that the quality of the games those Dev Houses were making simply weren't good enough to keep them in business, Factor 5, Brash and Silicon Knights in particular.

I'm not on the doom-and-gloom side, the industry as a whole is fine, just going through a transition period. I actually expect a shift towards different business models for both console and PC.

 

[Opiate]

Nice troll. Come on , tell me how the Wii is 'mostly inferior' to the original Xbox.


Wii has a faster CPU, GPU along with more and much faster RAM than the xbox.

Let's have a fight about whether the Wii is 8 year old, 7.5 year old, or 7 year old technology. That's sure to be productive.

 

[thestopsign]

It's important to notice that it started ahead of last year, and then suddenly started falling behind at a pretty rapid pace.

It sold 2mil in the first 3 months of the year, then only sold 2mil in the next 6 months after that.

 

[Digital-Hero]

There have been an inordinant number of dev closings this generation, but that isn't necessarily a sign of ill health without knowing the precise numbers behind these decisions. I think it's reasonable to say that the overall market isn't very healthy, but beyond that it's difficult to say.

And more new studios are opening monthly. You can spin that any way.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

well I can't speak on the MP count, but for a game like UC2, it should almost be considered a crime not to take the top spot in it's launch month.

But it's exclusive so it's numbers will be limited by it's userbase and don't forget that the first one while a fan favorite didn't really light the sales charts on fire.

The thing to keep in mind is that its predecessor was such a mega success that it's unfair to measure ODST against Killzone.

But the Killzone.gif brigade at the time told me that the first Killzone was a great success selling over a million units and loved by everyone except critics when it was ever brought up.

 

[pcostabel]

Nice troll. Come on , tell me how the Wii is 'mostly inferior' to the original Xbox.


Wii has a faster CPU, GPU along with more and much faster RAM than the xbox.

No programmable shaders?

 

[Opiate]

I'd argue that the quality of the games those Dev Houses were making simply weren't good enough to keep them in business, Factor 5, Brash and Silicon Knights in particular.

I'm not on the doom-and-gloom side, the industry as a whole is fine, just going through a transition period. I actually expect a shift towards different business models for both console and PC.

Let's just say I agree that things are transitioning. I would ask, then, why they are transitioning, if everything is good as is? Surely not because huge conglomerates love change so much and decided to do it because they wanted to.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

To be honest, we don't really know how mid level developers are doing generally speaking, because they aren't publicly traded companies and thus aren't posting earnings reports.

We know some mid-tier developers, like Epic and Valve, are making good money. I think that's a certainty. So too is Bethesda.

We know a lot aren't. GRIN is an example you gave. Factor 5 is either gone or decimated. Free Radical is gone. Silicon Knights has downsized. Marvelous has downsized slightly. Brash is gone.

There have been an inordinant number of dev closings this generation, but that isn't necessarily a sign of ill health without knowing the precise numbers behind these decisions. I think it's reasonable to say that the overall market isn't very healthy, but beyond that it's difficult to say.

Of course. With any business there will be casualties. Marvelous is a perfect example of a company that can't seem to find any kind of foothold on consoles this gen. However to imply that all is well and good with the high budget game creation in the current marketplace is a laugh.

 

[Opiate]

And more new studios are opening monthly. You can spin that any way.

Well, I haven't noticed nearly as many new studios this generation, but I could just be missing them. Certainly a few have sprung up. If you could list the new studios this generation, I'd actually be interested.

Regardless, I explicitly said that there is evidence both ways (and provided examples of mid tier developers doing well). We really don't know how the mid tier developers are doing generally, because 1) there are a whole lot more of them, and 2) none of them publicly provide their financial data.

 

[Tiktaalik]

Where's the NPD Canada sales? I want to know how well NHL 10 and NHL 2k Wii did.

 

[Bizzyb]

Seriously take a deep breath or something

Honestly I'd love to have a Wii simply for group entertainment purposes and the famdam, but it'l be a cold day in h3ll before I spend 200$ on 8 year old technology thats mostly inferior to my original Xbox from 2001.

If MS and Sony take the Nintendo Wii strategy next Gen I'll eventually just go back to PC gaming, kinda a full circle.

Yah, you do that. Because that's all that matters; tech. not the actual goddamn games that you play....why are you even here?

 

[Opiate]

Of course. With any business there will be casualties. Marvelous is a perfect example of a company that can't seem to find any kind of foothold on consoles this gen. However to imply that all is well and good with the high budget game creation in the current marketplace is a laugh.

I agree -- I wasn't responding to you. I can't actually figure out where mid-tier developers came in to this conversation. It was pretty clear you were talking about "big budget" games, and then XBL/PSN showed up, and then it was a mess.

 

[poppabk]

His post also misses the fact that the smaller publishers simply don't have to compete at those levels just due to size. Good, mid-sized hits can consistently keep a smaller dev house afloat. Atlus, etc aren't going anywhere. I would argue that big budget games are going to always be left to the big boys, that doesn't mean the mid-sizes will dry up. The Dark Knight doesn't result in Juno not being made.

But the game industry and the video game industry don't work the same, there is no game equivalent of Juno
Juno - 7 million budget - 230 million box office (WW)
Dark Knight - 185 million budget - 1000 million box office (WW)
Lets just say that Halo:ODST had an overall budget of 20 million and is our gaming equivalent of Dark Knight
Halo:ODST - 20 million budget - ~90 million revenue (US)
XXXX - 760k budget - ~20 million revenue

Fill in the blank.
Juno isn't the only example of a movie that has had that kind of success on the back of a low budget based on word of mouth or critical acclaim either.

 

[Tiktaalik]

One day off I'm going to sit down and try to compile a list of company closures by year so we can actually get a good feel for how the industry has been moving over the last 20 years. It feels like companies are doing worse off this generation, but on the other hand, companies doing terrible and dying in this industry is not a new event at all (eg. Acclaim).

 

[DMeisterJ]

I think you're all forgetting Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games and Wii Fit Plus.

Wii Fit Plus, maybe, but Mario and Sonic will be a slow burner. They both will chart in top 10, but I still think Uncharted 2 will take the top spot. If not, it will have to be Wii Fit Plus.

 

[Digital-Hero]

Well, I haven't noticed nearly as many new studios this generation, but I could just be missing them. Certainly a few have sprung up. If you could list the new studios this generation, I'd actually be interested.

Regardless, I explicitly said that there is evidence both ways (and provided examples of mid tier developers doing well). We really don't know how the mid tier developers are doing generally, because 1) there are a whole lot more of them, and 2) none of them publicly provide their financial data.

I work for a game studio (which I will not name) and it's not as scary as you make it. Unless you have sources in the inside, it's just rumors.

 

[SlipperySlope]

To be honest, we don't really know how mid level developers are doing generally speaking, because they aren't publicly traded companies and thus aren't posting earnings reports.

We know some mid-tier developers, like Epic and Valve, are making good money. I think that's a certainty. So too is Bethesda.

We know a lot aren't. GRIN is an example you gave. Factor 5 is either gone or decimated. Free Radical is gone. Silicon Knights has downsized. Marvelous has downsized slightly. Brash is gone.

There have been an inordinant number of dev closings this generation, but that isn't necessarily a sign of ill health without knowing the precise numbers behind these decisions. I think it's reasonable to say that the overall market isn't very healthy, but beyond that it's difficult to say.

On the other side are the publishers. EA is tanking. Take 2? They can't make a profit unless there's a GTA releasing.

There's only a few profitable publishers this gen.