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[OldJadedGamer]

Really? I thought it was over a million.

Well, that makes it more realistic, though I still say it will sell well under that.

ND has thrown around a few big numbers and in fact... in one interview it was concluded that ND were using numbers from vgchartzzzzzzzzzz as a source! They are confusing bundles with real sales but I think the real sales of the game for NPD are around 500k-600k if that high.

 

[dionysus]

Pachter predicted $220mil in music game sales, it was actually $115 mil.

"Pachter said the two titles racked up total sales of $115 million for the month, which fell well short of his $220 million projection."

Thank god plastic peripheral sales are falling.

 

[gregor7777]

:rolleyes at people generalising different fanboy gangs.

:rolleyes at people generalising people generalising different fanboy gangs..

ND has thrown around a few big numbers and in fact... in one interview it was concluded that ND were using numbers from vgchartzzzzzzzzzz as a source! They are confusing bundles with real sales but I think the real sales of the game for NPD are around 500k-600k if that high.

Yeah, I don't know where I came up with the idea of over a million sales.

 

[Barrett2]

:rolleyes at people generalising different fanboy gangs.

Sony fans drive like this.... 360 fans drive like that....

 

[jvm]

UC1 NPD ltd is actually around 600k.

This is correct.

 

[Shurs]

Question: Did halodst (in its first month) outsell KZ2's LTD?

Probably.

The thing to keep in mind is that its predecessor was such a mega success that it's unfair to measure ODST against Killzone.

 

[Jive Turkey]

Holy crap at the sudden body count. Most appear to be the more boisterous Sony fans too.

It's OK guys. The PS3 did really well this month. No need to fight so hard.

 

[Barrett2]

Did KZ2 sell comparatively better in Europe than in the US?

 

[sinseers]

Is that not charting high?

Touche......It just sounded like you don't expect it to chart at #1 but chart high nonetheless.

 

[Mooreberg]

Does anyone else think Rockstar North wishes the GTA Episodes had just been a $60 retail 360 game instead of $40 through XBL or retail? Lost and The Damned was longer than ODST and that is only one half of the package. :lol

 

[sinseers]

Considering that there are < 9,000 people in U2 multiplayer right now, I wouldn't count on it.

well I can't speak on the MP count, but for a game like UC2, it should almost be considered a crime not to take the top spot in it's launch month.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

Definitely a lot of people who love to hate Sony here. I'd love to know where you all came from, disgruntled early DC adopters or something?

I can't speak for everyone, but I've got no beef with Sony. Wipeout is my favorite game franchise of all time. They put out awesome games and consoles. I just don't like bullies, and for that year between the 360 and PS3 launch, a lot of Prosonents (much better than SDF, no?) were real jerks to me specifically. I'm sure there are people who come down on the "Sony side" just because they don't personally like, say, me. I don't think anyone here actually cares about the whims of a monolithic corporation any further than what they're doing to get you good games and they're all getting good games, so I'd imagine these arguments keep going for just those reasons. Some people just don't like each other.

ETA: Time heals most wounds and I like to think that I'm much less involved in these sorts of arguments than I used to be, but it seemed like an interesting question to answer.

 

[gregor7777]

UC2 sales will be the most interesting thing next NPD, IMO.

Not sure where I want to put it yet, but I think we can start at KZ2's numbers and head up.

Better marketing, better time of the year, and a larger install base.

 

[Kosma]

This NPD is a powerful blow to HDDVD.

 

[sinseers]

Don't overunderestimate Wii Fit Plus!!!

I kinda did didn't I? Oh well, I will stand by my prediction though. If I'm wrong, then I'm wrong. No harm no foul.

 

[fizzelopeguss]

lol, bishiuk didn't last long...and kittonwy's banished also.

Epic body count.

 

[BioNut]

Probably.

The thing to keep in mind is that its predecessor was such a mega success that it's unfair to measure ODST against Killzone.

What I am thinking is that yeah sony is happy to sell more consoles but doesn't it worry them when an expansion pack makes more money on the 360 than sony's biggest shooter?

Sony can lower the price of their hardware all they want but its their software sales that are really hurting.

Microsoft might have fewer exclusives but most of them sell more than 700,000 units the first month if not the first week. (Gears of War, Halo, Fable 2, etc). Heck didn't ODST do 1.2m of that 1.5 in the first day alone?

 

[fizzelopeguss]

UC2 sales will be the most interesting thing next NPD, IMO.

Not sure where I want to put it yet, but I think we can start at KZ2's numbers and head up.

Better marketing, better time of the year, and a larger install base.

I doubt it'll be massive first month numbers, for whatever reason ps3 first party titles seem to be slow burners, but they always end up with sequels so it doesn't really matter that much to us as gamers.

 

[gofreak]

I can't speak for everyone, but I've got no beef with Sony. Wipeout is my favorite game franchise of all time. They put out awesome games and consoles. I just don't like bullies, and for that year between the 360 and PS3 launch, a lot of Prosonents (much better than SDF, no?) were real jerks to me specifically. I'm sure there are people who come down on the "Sony side" just because they don't personally like, say, me. I don't think anyone here actually cares about the whims of a monolithic corporation any further than what they're doing to get you good games and they're all getting good games, so I'd imagine these arguments keep going for just those reasons. Some people just don't like each other.

ETA: Time heals most wounds and I like to think that I'm much less involved in these sorts of arguments than I used to be, but it seemed like an interesting question to answer.

Wowsers!

There was a lot of shit flung both ways in that year. A lot. Nearly always the way at the start of a generation (not to excuse it). I would say it was probably also one of the most difficult times to be a 'Sony fan' on here was that year and the first year of PS3. But that's again, probably a matter of differing perspectives depending on which side of the fence you sat on in the first place!

But that's nothing to take personally. If you find that turning you off the product, if you find yourself on a 'side' because of messageboard politics, that's very very unfortunate indeed. And it's a new one to me to see someone claim a 'side' because of that. An awfully strange reason, IMO, to find yourself advocating or opposing a product. I know you didn't quite stretch to this explicitly, but if the suggestion is that found yourself turned off a PS3 because of 05/06 message board shenanigans, you're doing yourself a massive disservice as a gamer. You're in WAAAY too deep at that point.

 

[charlequin]

You think UC2 will debut at 1million +? That's bold

No, this is bold.

Honestly every single camp is full of retards.

Agreeing with this is the only comment I'll give on this side-discussion.

The thing to keep in mind is that its predecessor was such a mega success that it's unfair to measure ODST against Killzone.

"Unfair" is a silly thing to say here. We're not in kindergarten here and there is no "fair."

What would be accurate would be to say that it's pointless. KZ2 was a heavily hyped game that was nonetheless the followup to a lousy game, while Halo ODST is an expansion pack to one of gaming's absolute biggest franchises. It doesn't really tell us anything besides "Halo is big," which, well, durr.

Not sure where I want to put it yet, but I think we can start at KZ2's numbers and head up.

So like 400-something thousand in its opening month? That sounds believable to me.

 

[Safe Bet]

It appears to me that Wii is on a rapid decline and has been for quite some time. I'm surprised there isn't more discussion about this.

Without more concrete data, PS360 supporters are way too cautious to jump into the fray after the complete ass-kicking they recieved from Nintendo.

Nintendo supporters don't even want to ponder the possiblity considering how much "I told you big budget HD games are not a sustainable business model!!!" crow that would have to be eaten.

 

[sinseers]

That's right, every weekend I go ride my tricked-out FXX across the Ring, I need to get away from that reality and chuck bananas at go-carts instead :lol

Are games supposed to ignore realistic physics to be considered games?

No, but going so far to the extreme as to try and completely mimic real life physics tells more about the lack of imagination and wealth of imitation on the part of some devs.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

I don't think forza will beat it, although who knows. Racing games seem on a decline. I bet WSR takes number one next month

I'd guess (in relation to each other, not 1-4 on the chart)-
WSR
odst ?
Uncharted
Forza
WF+

Tekken? It will probably be number one on both consoles.

 

[Mooreberg]

Tekken? It will probably be number one on both consoles.

Not with only a few days of sales...

 

[red shoe paul]

Tekken? It will probably be number one on both consoles.

Uhhh, yeah in Japan.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Without more concrete data, PS360 supporters are way too cautious to jump into the fray after the complete ass-kicking they recieved from Nintendo.

Nintendo supporters don't even want to ponder the possiblity considering how much "I told you big budget HD games are not a sustainable business model!!!" crow that would have to be eaten.

It isn't though.

 

[Htown]

Without more concrete data, PS360 supporters are way too cautious to jump into the fray after the complete ass-kicking they recieved from Nintendo.

Nintendo supporters don't even want to ponder the possiblity considering how much "I told you big budget HD games are not a sustainable business model!!!" crow that would have to be eaten.

Uh . . .

You did see that the Wii sold 462 thousand units last month, right? And that the DS was still the best-selling hardware by a significant margin?

And with Wii Fit Plus out now and New Super Mario Bros coming in November, I'm sure Nintendo's doing juuust fine.

And a "rapid decline?" Only because it was selling INSANELY last year. If I'm not mistaken, it's still tracking WELL ahead of what the PS2 ever did.

 

[Safe Bet]

It isn't though.

Only because it was selling INSANELY last year.

If I'm not mistaken, it's still tracking WELL ahead of what the PS2 ever did.

Well I guess "Decline? Its merely descending back to earth." would be better explanation than mine.

 

[sinseers]

Any reason you think borderlands ps3 outsells 360 given the history of multiplats on both systems? That's a bold dj hero pick though, I like it I think it's wrong but I like it

In retrospect, I think I misjudged the borderlands placing. I'm not one to edit my top 10 predictions so I'll have to live with that one. PS3 fans will be busy with UC2 so chances are BL will chart higher on 360 for Oct. Chalk that one up as a loss for me sir.

 

[elrechazado]

In retrospect, I think I misjudged the borderlands placing. I'm not one to edit my top 10 predictions so I'll have to live with that one. PS3 fans will be busy with UC2 so chances are BL will chart higher on 360 for Oct. Chalk that one up as a loss for me sir.

I wasn't calling you out, just generally curious if you knew something I didn't Besides, I'm the last person who should be keeping score on predictions, since I'd be around the bottom of the barrel.

 

[sinseers]

I just love how when people talk of next month's NPD top 10-they leave out a Wii/DS game- I definitely think Mario and Sonic will chart.

You very well could be right. I just don't feel it in my bones though.

 

[sinseers]

I thought Forza 3 would be a shoe in to top October NPD's?

I'm just not feeling the hype or energy for Forza right now. We'll see though.

 

[evilromero]

You very well could be right. I just don't feel it in my bones though.

Check out the number of Amazon reviews for the first game. Despite GAF's collective agreement on its mediocrity it received almost two hundred positive reviews. So I wouldn't be surprised to see it chart.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

Wowsers!

There was a lot of shit flung both ways in that year. A lot. Nearly always the way at the start of a generation (not to excuse it). I would say it was probably also one of the most difficult times to be a 'Sony fan' on here was that year and the first year of PS3. But that's again, probably a matter of differing perspectives depending on which side of the fence you sat on in the first place!

But that's nothing to take personally. If you find that turning you off the product, if you find yourself on a 'side' because of messageboard politics, that's very very unfortunate indeed. And it's a new one to me to see someone claim a 'side' because of that. An awfully strange reason, IMO, to find yourself advocating or opposing a product. I know you didn't quite stretch to this explicitly, but if the suggestion is that found yourself turned off a PS3 because of 05/06 message board shenanigans, you're doing yourself a massive disservice as a gamer. You're in WAAAY too deep at that point.

As stated, I was never turned off of the console itself.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Well that would be a better explanation than mine.

You weren't very descriptive yourself.

I've made this argument hundreds of times; how can we point to a model where the top 5 percent of gamemakers prosper and say that it's sustainable? Repeatedly the top 10 for NPD consists of the same 8-10 companies; Nintendo, Sony, MS, Epic, Capcom, EA, Ubisoft, and Activision, with odd appearances by companies with higher budgets yet lower game yields like Bethesda and Sega. It would be all well and good if the market only consisted of these publishers, yet it's only been reduced to that. Good luck sniffing the top 10 if your budget can't compete with that of any of these devs, and if it can, but bombs anyway? Shutter your doors.

What of the Mid and lower tier games? Would smaller developers like Atlus, Marvelous, or Majesco survive for one minute if they had to compete with these companies and play with the same budgets? We constantly talk about the success of companies in the NPD threads because that's what we see; yet for some reason (most likely because the average GAFer doesn't care about these games) no one asks, "where are the smaller titles on the 360 and PS3?"

No doubt someone will shout XBLA/PSN in retort, however both services aren't exactly a haven for mid tier devs as they've been lauded. Show me the explosion of support on XBLA, PSN, or even WiiWare for devs that are bigger than indies, but smaller than mega companies like Activision?

 

[D4Danger]

This NPD is a powerful blow to HDDVD.

 

[LCfiner]

Check out the number of Amazon reviews for the first game. Despite GAF's collective agreement on its mediocrity it received almost two hundred positive reviews. So I wouldn't be surprised to see it chart.

I thought Gaf was mostly high on the game except for a few trolls in the comparison thread.

 

[TheRagnCajun]

The Wii decline just shows that their prodcut is at the tail end (over halfway) of its lifecycle. Once YoY sales are consistently down its time to start seriously considering your next product. I don't think Nintendo is in any trouble, they could cash their chips and go home now with more money than Sony and MS would ever profit this gen. I think the smart thing to do is to leave the Wii market strategy in tact and let it run its course, while strategizing for the next cash cow.

Edit: This is not a 'Wii is doomed' post. Its a 'Wii doesn't need fixing, just a successor in the next couple years' post.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

The Wii decline just shows that their prodcut is at the tail end of its lifecycle. Once YoY sales are consistently down its time to start seriously considering your next product. I don't think Nintendo is in any trouble, they could cash their chips and go home now with more money than Sony and MS would ever profit this gen. I think the smart thing to do is to leave the Wii market strategy in tact and let it run its course, while strategizing for the next cash cow.

wat

 

[Somnid]

The Wii decline just shows that their prodcut is at the tail end of its lifecycle. Once YoY sales are consistently down its time to start seriously considering your next product. I don't think Nintendo is in any trouble, they could cash their chips and go home now with more money than Sony and MS would ever profit this gen. I think the smart thing to do is to leave the Wii market strategy in tact and let it run its course, while strategizing for the next cash cow.

But couldn't you have easily made this argument for PS3 just a few months ago?

 

[gkryhewy]

The Wii decline just shows that their prodcut is at the tail end of its lifecycle. Once YoY sales are consistently down its time to start seriously considering your next product. I don't think Nintendo is in any trouble, they could cash their chips and go home now with more money than Sony and MS would ever profit this gen. I think the smart thing to do is to leave the Wii market strategy in tact and let it run its course, while strategizing for the next cash cow.

It's like the clock has been turned back to June and the Wii is doomed again. Newsflash folks, the numbers are starting to look pretty good again - setting up for another monster holiday.

But couldn't you have easily made this argument for PS3 just a few months ago?

And probably a couple months from now.

 

[zero_suit]

The Wii decline just shows that their prodcut is at the tail end of its lifecycle. Once YoY sales are consistently down its time to start seriously considering your next product. I don't think Nintendo is in any trouble, they could cash their chips and go home now with more money than Sony and MS would ever profit this gen. I think the smart thing to do is to leave the Wii market strategy in tact and let it run its course, while strategizing for the next cash cow.

The hell?

Last year, the Wii had the highest annual NPD sales ever, with the exception of the DS. The only possible outcome was a YOY decline. I think the Wii will see a YOY increase in 2010, though (better line-up).

 

[Zuhzuhzombie!!]

You weren't very descriptive yourself.

I've made this argument hundreds of times; how can we point to a model where the top 5 percent of gamemakers prosper and say that it's sustainable? Repeatedly the top 10 for NPD consists of the same 8-10 companies; Nintendo, Sony, MS, Epic, Capcom, EA, Ubisoft, and Activision, with odd appearances by companies with higher budgets yet lower game yields like Bethesda and Sega. It would be all well and good if the market only consisted of these publishers, yet it's only been reduced to that. Good luck sniffing the top 10 if your budget can't compete with that of any of these devs, and if it can, but bombs anyway? Shutter your doors.

What of the Mid and lower tier games? Would smaller developers like Atlus, Marvelous, or Majesco survive for one minute if they had to compete with these companies and play with the same budgets? We constantly talk about the success of companies in the NPD threads because that's what we see; yet for some reason (most likely because the average GAFer doesn't care about these games) no one asks, "where are the smaller titles on the 360 and PS3?"

No doubt someone will shout XBLA/PSN in retort, however both services aren't exactly a haven for mid tier devs as they've been lauded. Show me the explosion of support on XBLA, PSN, or even WiiWare for devs that are bigger than indies, but smaller than mega companies like Activision?

Yet, regardless, small developers do just fine without needing a huge budget.

 

[D4Danger]

The Wii decline just shows that their prodcut is at the tail end of its lifecycle. Once YoY sales are consistently down its time to start seriously considering your next product.

This is gonna come back to bite you in the ass.

 

[Zihark]

Check out the number of Amazon reviews for the first game. Despite GAF's collective agreement on its mediocrity it received almost two hundred positive reviews. So I wouldn't be surprised to see it chart.

Reviews wont affect the sales of a mario game, c'mon now. Now I expect it to sell less then Summer but still probably a lot anyways

 

[RSTEIN]

I don't think Nintendo is in any trouble, they could cash their chips and go home now with more money than Sony and MS would ever profit this gen.

Considering that Sony will most likely lose money this generation and Microsoft is struggling to break even, that's a pretty low hurdle

 

[TheRagnCajun]

The hell?

Last year, the Wii had the highest annual NPD sales ever, with the exception of the DS. The only possible outcome was a YOY decline. I think the Wii will see a YOY increase in 2010, though (better line-up).

Sure. All I'm saying is, its not going to get that high again with Wii. But they can re-create their success with a new product.

 

[Taurus]

The Wii decline just shows that their prodcut is at the tail end of its lifecycle. Once YoY sales are consistently down its time to start seriously considering your next product. I don't think Nintendo is in any trouble, they could cash their chips and go home now with more money than Sony and MS would ever profit this gen. I think the smart thing to do is to leave the Wii market strategy in tact and let it run its course, while strategizing for the next cash cow.

Spot on analysis, well done!

Spoiler

FYI Wii is up 190k from last month, that's a bad sign, right?

Sure. All I'm saying is, its not going to get that high again with Wii. But they can re-create their success with a new product.

Wii will sell easily over 500k in next NPD month and it will be number one again.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Yet, regardless, small developers do just fine without needing a huge budget.

Whoosh.

 

[RSTEIN]

Hey jvm, if you're still out there, you should do a special report on racing games. It is really interesting what's going on there. Is it just simply too many games out there? Sales have really fallen off a cliff. These are games with solid reviews in established franchises. I can't wait to see how Forza 3 does. Will be interesting.