a 50M XB1 would put US sales around ~30M minimum (I'd say closer to 35M). Assuming PS4 keeps its current marketshare in the US, that would put it around ~35M (or even near 40 if we take the upper XB1 projection).
So you are predicting that PS4+XB1 in the US to be bigger than 360+PS3 while at the same time PS4 ends up being smaller than PS3 ROTW wise.
I think that excluding Japan, PS4 is supposed to be bigger than PS3 everywhere else. Specially when we add all those smaller markets like Middle East and Asia that are experiencing substantial growth
I think 100:40 is more feasible than 8X:50
I am expecting some sort of growth for Xbox One outside of the USA (and even inside the USA) as the price comes down and core gamers who want a second console/casuals looking for their first console jump in. The Xbox brand is still large enough to mean something. In the way that PlayStation brand was big during the PS3 era.
In regards to PS4, I don't see the US amounting to more than 30-35% of total sales. RotW will really push the PS4 this time. The US will still be the leading country of course.
As for the other two, the PS3/360 sold at least 160 million units combined, and the Wii another 101.5 million alone. Most of the Wii owners are now using tablets and phones to get their fix, but you're projecting ~146 million across all three systems (134 for X1/PS4) which might seem a bit low.
Then again, they had a longer lifetime, and you're talking 6 years here.
I think some of it depends on VR, which, if it's a big hit, would make more PS3/360 owners buy a new console instead of skipping the generation like many PS2 owners did with the last.
Overall, PS4 selling 80+ million is a safe bet, I'd say. Not sure about the Xbox, I think we could see another console sooner than expected, but it should sell at least 35-40 million even with a new console in 2018-19.
Yup, worth bearing in mind this is only up to 2019. It also doesn't consider a number of factors such as sales extension tools e.g- Kinect 3.0/Move 2.0 being launched later in the lifecycle + boom in sales. Nor does this take into account competition in the console space being introduced before 2019 (Other than NX which we know about).
I do think though that the total userbase will shrink drastically compared to last gen however we'll see attach rates increase, more AAA games sell better and the remaining publishers maximising profit from every game. Ultimately the decline in revenue shouldn't be as steep.
I would personally expect the PS4 to sell more than 80 million by the end of its life cycle. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 95 million if not more. XB1 I expect to cap out at around 40 million. I think you nailed WiiU though. As far as PS4 and XB1 go, I guess it depends on the price points and software libraries more than anything else at this point. Your predictions are certainly within the realm of possibility but it would be incredibly underwhelming to see the lead console this gen sell under 90 million units given the under-performance of the competing platforms.
Basically I agree completely with this post
I don't think we'll see the PS4 sell 100 million before 2019. It certainly could afterwards but in the limited time there is it would take some sort of hook other than price for 100m to become possible before 2019. Whether that's morpheus taking off or some sort of new service? I dunno? But I don't see it happening.
The Xbox One will be kept afloat by the US and UK and I do at this moment see people moving towards the console a bit later in the lifecycle (due to value propositions/brand/games) which means sales aren't going to drop off a cliff after 2016.
At this point I'd say less than 50m for sure.
XBox One 20 millions in 2015? What is it at now, 2 millions more than Wii U?
8 more millions in 6 months seems unlikely at the pace it's selling.
It'd need to sell ~6-7m units in the next 6 months to reach 20m. It's certainly possible when you consider the strong holiday line up (read as Halo) + what they did last year.
Anyway, taking on some feedback I guess this is what most people would say would need adjusting. I do actually agree that the PS4 could be around 90m as demonstrated below. But I do believe the Xbox One could be nearer 50m. But hey, we're talking a few million difference which isn't much. Anyway, I hope this is a better prediction than the
IDC one haha.
