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NPD Sales Results for May 2015
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
Yeah, something fishy is going on here lately.
So damn good seeing Splatoon in the monthly Amazon Top10 charts
Lately?
Astroturf marketing is pervasive because it is cheap and effective. They concentrate on forums and comment sections and user reviews because it is easy to stay hidden and one guy with the appropriate software can mange 100+ identities easily. Customers of these services include giant corporations like Samsung and Microsoft; individuals like Bill Gates and Sheldon Adelson; and entities like the US military and Russian psyops.
So if you feel manipulated, it is because you are.
Bro you are absolutely right. i dont't
Understand why they even bother.
You know what i mean? i heard the guys at
Xerox have been doing their own astroturfing.
But it's nowhere near as bad as those who post
On here and try to push their agenda.
Xerox and the others need to stop.
The Grim Reaper
Banned
Splatoon sold 136K physical retail last month. Let's be generous and assume a 25% digital rate. So that's 170K physical + digital in total.
So far, the June 2015 NPD Reporting Month still has a few weeks to go, and Splatoon has already sold 476K physical + digital.
Nintendo's press release states the following:
REDMOND, Wash.–(BUSINESS WIRE)– Nintendo has hauled up its nets, tallied its catch and crossed another milestone. Sales of Splatoon, the new squid-based game for Nintendo’s Wii U home console, have crossed 1 million worldwide, according to Nintendo’s internal figures. That figure includes more than 476,000 physical and digital units sold in the Americas, more than 368,000 sold in Japan, more than 230,000 sold in Europe and an additional 20,000 sold in Australia and New Zealand.
This wording leads me to believe that Nintendo is estimating sell-through, not counting shipped physical + sell-through digital.
Let's assume 10% of those 476K are from Canada, so the total physical + digital USA sell-through is 428K.
If that's the case, then Nintendo sold-through an extra 258K physical + digital copies of Splatoon (428K - 170K) in June, or an extra 193K physical assuming a 25% digital rate. And, there are still two weeks left in the reporting period.
That should be more than enough to put Splatoon in the Top 10. Last June, Tomodachi Life sold 137K and took the #9 spot in the Top 10, for example. That may even be enough for the Top 5.
Don't you think thats a bit of a large assumption? Regarding canada and Digital sell through percentage.
I mean I see where you're coming from but it's hardly an accurate way of assessing how many physical copies have been sold In the US so far this month.
The Grim Reaper
Banned
Canada as 10% of total Americas sell-through is a pretty standard assumption. GAFfers have been using that assumption for many years.
And 25% is not unreasonable assuming that Splatoon benefited from a high digital adoption through the "Testfire" demo + large eShop promotion + lots of core gamers gravitating towards a digital library.
It's generous, sure, but I deliberately skewed it a bit higher to prove a point. Not to mention, at times we've seen ~25% digital rates with other Nintendo games in the past. So it's not completely unprecedented.
CosmicQueso
Member
I like the way you extrapolate, Grim.
Sure it may not be accurate, but nothing truly is with this stuff.
Assumptions and maths seem within a reasonable range.
Sure it may not be accurate, but nothing truly is with this stuff.
Assumptions and maths seem within a reasonable range.
fwiw I think the testfire eshop discount was only for Europe
KillerSloth
Banned
It's ps4 or x1 this time though, not just X1 or ps4 like it has been, so wont tip the scales in any direction.
Thats fair enough. I don't disagree with the assumptions you've made as to me they actually look accurate and fit within certain known standards.
Just not sure how accurate it actually is when digital could be a lot higher (or lower) as can Canada sales as well.
I guess I'm just not a huge fan of that extrapolation method unless we have actual evidence (or enough data) to work out what the actual splits are for Splatoon itself.
Obliterator
Member
Yep and its on both. Going to be interesting
The Grim Reaper
Banned
Are you sure?
http://www.gamespot.com/articles/nintendo-is-giving-you-one-hour-to-try-wii-u-exclu/1100-6427365/
"Wii U owners that downloaded the demo during the last test period, or do so in the upcoming test period, will be entitled to a ten percent discount off the game when purchased from the eShop. The discount offer will last until June 4."
If you remember, Nintendo advertised Splatoon all over the eShop (even changing the eShop's music to Splatoon's theme), and the Testfire demo advertised an eShop pre-purchase right in the main menu:
hydrophilic attack
Member
I'm gonna be stuck with that avatar for a month, aren't I? Let me stay in denial a little longer
KillerSloth
Banned
LOL what? How does that work don't they ban IP's or something?
Doesn't change anything though, consoles have certainly gone longer than PS4 without price drops.
KillerSloth
Banned
sörine;169668620 said:
Umm yes it does......Wii was still selling out, PS4 is Down YOY, and PS4 is 150 more expensive, that most certainly matters.
hmmm, I'm definitely not 100% sure but I remember that being a thing
I'm gonna be stuck with that avatar for a month, aren't I? Let me stay in denial a little longer
haha, hey you made the bet out of the blue. I couldn't believe what I was reading so I had to call you on it immediately ;p
Sangetsu-II
Member
I never said it would tip the scale in the first place but it will be interesting which gains more traction in trade ins.
inpHilltr8r
Member
Late, but FWIW, PS2 had a major hardware revision between Japanese launch and US launch. The Japanese launch model had no drive bay, and required an external HDD.
Probably not, but they should have tools to spot IP usage that flag potential alts.
slavesnyder
Member
So we will see if backwards compatibility convinces xbox fans to jump into next gen.
Cool. Put it to the test. Would be great to have a "vs.-counter" for this promo.
Also: real astroturfers never surrender.
(they get paid)
Sure, all I'm saying is consoles have gone longer without a price drop. You said none had and I was simply correcting your error.
theprodigy
Member
476k is the Americas, not US+Canada
not that it changes that much
not that it changes that much
I-isn't just stupid to announce that he already made a brand new GAF account to another user? Especially someone like you who reports on it anyway. Wouldn't it be preferred to be as subtle as possible with a fake account?
...And why does he PM you? :lol
slavesnyder
Member
Same and I told him it was a lost bet :]
Yup, he told me in confidence.... whoops....
The reason I PM him once is because he said he had access to numbers so I asked him to prove it to the admins here or stop posting about it (as people in this thread did). Surprisingly he never proved it...... hahaha
Shhhhhh,
Although, I am surprised no one caught on what I did in this post- http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=169660250&postcount=2803
DC1
Member
Oh..Xerox employee? Or part of a company where Xerox is the vendor? If so, lets talk.
With regard to the sub topic:
Astroturfing is effective and will be part of the marketing space for the rest of our foreseeable human existence.
As much as I would like to enjoy intellgent and honest conversations in a public forum about items of leasure, I (we all should have) realized that such a place only exist in a liberated North Korea.
GAF is the safest place with the most diverse opinions that I know of.
Hahahaha!
(Read the first letter of each line)
Sorry but I'm not a Xerox employee!
I like discussing stuff here, everyone has a genuine opinion and differing points of view and it's great to see that and understand their thoughts and learn from each other.
I very much enjoy reading sales threads on here to see peoples opinions and also read more detailed analysis from other members who have knowledge of the industry.
What ruins it for me is when some member (like this guy just got banned) starts to spew crap and agenda driven stuff over and over and think they know it all. Not a fan of that.
DC1
Member
Lol- Very good.
I have the feeling that I now have to apply effort when reading your posts.
Damnit! This is against every principal I employ when kicking my feet up to enjoy Gafland!
...Scatter...
Banned
Yeah, something fishy is going on here lately.
So damn good seeing Splatoon in the monthly Amazon Top10 charts
LOL Bender what'd you do to earn this avatar honor?
Welfare
Member
I feel manipulated.
I will be prepared for the altocalypse GAF don't worry.
OT: still no estimates for stock numbers on the batman bundles I see. Really wish we'd get some insight on what to expect from some of the retail insiders. Like how do the numbers compare to the Destiny bundle or the Sunset Overdrive bundle.
OT: still no estimates for stock numbers on the batman bundles I see. Really wish we'd get some insight on what to expect from some of the retail insiders. Like how do the numbers compare to the Destiny bundle or the Sunset Overdrive bundle.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
For what it's worth, if sales drop even lower than they are now (let's say below 30K in a month), you think Nintendo might consider dropping the price early just to keep it in stores? Or if XB1 gets cheaper than Wii U perhaps?
Also for June, what titles are we thinking might be in the top 10?
Batman Arkham Knight is the obvious one. I wouldn't be surprised if Lego Jurassic World did well considering how well the movie did. Any other new releases to look out for? I'd say Splatoon likely charts in June then considering the 476K in the Americas and the fact we still have one more week left in June.
Welfare
Member
Not in any order, but I think this will be the top 10.
Elder Scrolls Online
Batman: Arkham Knight
Lego Jurassic World
Splatoon
Grand Theft Auto V
The Witcher III: Wild Hunt
Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare
Mortal Kombat X
Minecraft
NBA 2K15
Pretty safe tbh
They will drop the price some day. But I don't see it being a drastic cut, just something that pushes a few extra people towards the console. No sort of fire sale price or anything.
Wii U is a failure and the demand just isn't there to justify a sizeable price drop. In my opinion at least I think the reason Nintendo haven't dropped the price is because even if they did, it would not make a difference in sales (significantly) and they may as well just sell what they can with the higher price to generate higher margin.
Futurematic
Member
Since we had a brief discussion on Persona 5 sales potential in the USA in the trailer thread, I was wondering if anybody had final NPD sales for Persona 4 and Persona 4 Golden? (I got between 110,000 and 123,000 for Persona 4 by Jan 2009, and creamsugar said 65-70k for Persona 4 Golden launch month July 2013.)
The Grim Reaper
Banned
Persona 4 was a twilight game for the PlayStation 2 with word-of-mouth pushing it. So one can reasonably posit that Persona 4 would have legs beyond 100K.
But, at the same time, it was quite niche, often overlooked because of its small marketing campaign (Atlus doesn't exactly have the same capital of the major USA publishers), as well as the preeminence of the 7th-gen consoles overshadowing it. So, it's final LTD would be somewhere around 200K, approx. 2/3rds of its final Japanese LTD.
Persona 5 has better sales potential if only because it's actually going to be launching early into the PS4's life on the PS4. Both Persona 3 & 4 launched on the PS2 exclusively after the 360 and PS3 were released, but Persona 5 is launching on both the PS3 and the PS4. Being on the PS3 will mean the game will sell in Japan, while the PS4 version will be the better selling version outside of Japan. Now remember that Persona is still niche, but Persona 5 is in a better starting position than Persona 3 or 4 were.
Obliterator
Member
It would seem that the regular bundle is plentiful and the LE custom one is pretty rare.
The Grim Reaper
Banned
"Well over" 200K? Hmm...what's your source?
Because my 200K statement seems to have more precedent:
(From a 2013 thread)
sörine;92233207 said:
Do you have a source for this? Been wondering about stock availability on the bundles for a few months now and never seemed to get a solid answer.
This got no feedback in the other thread so might as well post it here.
This is my forecast for worldwide sales which I originally created in January 2014 but have now updated to reflect actual 2013 and 2014 totals. 2015-2019 still remains the same though.
I know this is a US thread but can't think of any other place to post this and can't be bothered with opening a new thread.
What are peoples thoughts on the below? Too low? Too high?
This is my forecast for worldwide sales which I originally created in January 2014 but have now updated to reflect actual 2013 and 2014 totals. 2015-2019 still remains the same though.
I know this is a US thread but can't think of any other place to post this and can't be bothered with opening a new thread.
What are peoples thoughts on the below? Too low? Too high?
KillerSloth
Banned
This got no feedback in the other thread so might as well post it here.
This is my forecast for worldwide sales which I originally created in January 2014 but have now updated to reflect actual 2013 and 2014 totals. 2015-2019 still remains the same though.
I know this is a US thread but can't think of any other place to post this and can't be bothered with opening a new thread.
What are peoples thoughts on the below? Too low? Too high?
I think your predictions will wind up being pretty spot-on. I think PS4 might top 90 million. It's possible WiiU may get into the 15-20 million range If Zelda winds up being just for WiiU and not NX and another big release or two comes out for it. But if the suspicions are true that Zelda will be cross-gen and NX is coming 2017 I think you have it nailed it.
Shadow_Lord
Member
Obliterator
Member
Just observations.
You can disregard of course if that sort of thing doesn't interest you.