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[Hero]

i think this could be a solution next year. this year, i feel they're focused hard on profitability. they probably don't want to drop the price with pokemon, zelda, and yoshi right around the corner. next year only has smash bros. though.

Yeah, this year is pretty loaded on the software front to the point where I don't even mind the delay of Mario Golf so I think they can get away with it especially considering the known power of Pokemon and like you said Iwata needs that profitability to secure his position so I don't see a price drop this year either. Perhaps some aggressive bundling this holiday season instead? It was kind of lame that last holiday season the only retail holiday bundle was for Super Mario 3D Land with the original model, not even sure if price wise it was that good of a deal.

Definitely expecting a price drop next FY though.

 

[jvm]

i think this could be a solution next year. this year, i feel they're focused hard on profitability. they probably don't want to drop the price with pokemon, zelda, and yoshi right around the corner. next year only has smash bros. though.

This is why I still think they should do annual hardware refreshes. Push the middle model down, top model to middle, and introduce a new premium model at the top. Then they can hit a broader spectrum of consumers right when those games hit...

 

[a Master Ninja]

Though Nintendo's inability to grow the market further after the DS is troubling - perhaps caused by a lack of new IPs like Nintendogs and Brain Age to broaden the 3DS' appeal.

Nintendo permanently lost the casual adult "touch generation" audience to phones and tablets. They can not be won back.

 

[Brashnir]

The market doesn´t die off. It´s a miracle that old ass consoles sold as well as they did for that huge amount of time.

especially at the prices they're still charging for those things.

 

[Hero]

This is why I still think they should do annual hardware refreshes. Push the middle model down, top model to middle, and introduce a new premium model at the top. Then they can hit a broader spectrum of consumers right when those games hit...

Do you think Nintendo (or any other console manufacturer) could really afford to do that? I know this is classic Apple strategy but I would think they can get away with it due to lots of demand for their items even outside the holiday season. I don't have any data to support this theory but I would think that Nintendo would have a hard time doing this strategy since they wouldn't be producing as many units as Apple does and for unsold stock they would probably have to eat the costs for unsold hardware sitting on shelves when the next year's revision hits.

 

[metalslimer]

Well they could have pulled it off every year back when they were doing DS numbers. For a system selling like the 3DS the 2 year model is best. Also next year is likely when a hard 3DS Nintendo drought is going to hit as they move to focus on wii U so a revision would be helpful next year as opposed to this one that has Pokemon and Zelda. Still a price drop has been needed for a while with the 3DS. They're going to launch a new Nexus tablet soon that will obliterate the 3DS in specs for 199. The 3DS XL being priced so close to much more capable machines that can do so much more is why so man parents look at the 3DS and see a bad value

 

[AniHawk]

Nintendo permanently lost the casual adult "touch generation" audience to phones and tablets. They can not be won back.

they can, but not with their current hardware.

something like the oculus rift would be perfect for a mass market with a company like nintendo fully behind it.

 

[Brashnir]

they can, but not with their current hardware.

something like the oculus rift would be perfect for a mass market with a company like nintendo fully behind it.

I'm not sure Oculus Rift is the right product either, but I agree with your point that it would have to be something new and exciting to capture the greater market's imagination.

 

[Hero]

Well they could have pulled it off every year back when they were doing DS numbers. For a system selling like the 3DS the 2 year model is best. Also next year is likely when a hard 3DS Nintendo drought is going to hit as they move to focus on wii U so a revision would be helpful next year as opposed to this one that has Pokemon and Zelda. Still a price drop has been needed for a while with the 3DS. They're going to launch a new Nexus tablet soon that will obliterate the 3DS in specs for 199. The 3DS XL being priced so close to much more capable machines that can do so much more is why so man parents look at the 3DS and see a bad value

Yeah and I think towards the second half of the DS era I guess we did see that with DS Lite -> DSi - DSi XL.

Agree with the pricing of the XL not being very competitive for the mass market. Especially without any games included.

Stuff like Pilotwings and/or Steel Diver should be included on the SD card for new systems. It's not like they're selling anymore.

 

[metalslimer]

they can, but not with their current hardware.

something like the oculus rift would be perfect for a mass market with a company like nintendo fully behind it.

I'm sure Nintendo is looking very closely at occulus for their next system. It seems perfect for a billion dollar company in 3-4 years to make a hit with. Nintendo has also exhausted most of their other options. They've been looking into 3D for years and that's pretty much a bust outside of theatres right now with no new tech on the horizon. Off screen play and touchscreens is pretty much with the Wii U is taking their ideas from the DS and GBA and combining them on console. I definitely see something like Wii motion controls+virtual reality being the thing they're investigating next and its 100x more exciting to me than 3D and a shitty screen. The most exciting part about speculating Nintendos new system was expecting something completely different that you won't see from Sony or MS.

 

[Zee-Row]

Wow, a Saturn logo

Yet Dreamcast is nowhere to be found.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

it is funny to see people harping on about vita. the sales are not good no doubt but it doesn't look like Sony is worried or pressured like people seem to imply. they are not going to discontinue it and i haven't seen anyone come out and say sony needs to do something about the vita (publishers, retailers and Sony itself) like they do with wii u. yes companies may choose not to support it or retailers may cut down shelf space but thats it. if there was any pressure of it being removed then we would have heard about it or Sony would be taking drastic measures to push for sales. right now sony is just letting it coast along. they are making money on it and probably a lot more than people think if we add memory card, accessories and digital purchases. with all these bundles and adding more games to each bundle as free games with plus etc... all doesn't cost Sony much since they are digital. they will probably do a huge push around september and october with killzone and tearaway and then fall back to coasting along. i have always said it that it will be a slow burn in a world dominated by smartphones and it doesn't make sense losing money on it by dropping price when there is not a lot of demand especially when it is making them and people that put software on it enough money to justify it.

Didn't one of our resident insiders say that virtually no one is making money on the thing? You can't make money on a console where the highest yearly ltd is like 100k, even if you have >1/2 your sales obscured by digital. It's not coasting, it's crashing in a historical way.

 

[Mpl90]

I'm sure Nintendo is looking very closely at occulus for their next system. It seems perfect for a billion dollar company in 3-4 years to make a hit with. Nintendo has also exhausted most of their other options. They've been looking into 3D for years and that's pretty much a bust outside of theatres right now with no new tech on the horizon. Off screen play and touchscreens is pretty much with the Wii U is taking their ideas from the DS and GBA and combining them on console. I definitely see something like Wii motion controls+virtual reality being the thing they're investigating next and its 100x more exciting to me than 3D and a shitty screen. The most exciting part about speculating Nintendos new system was expecting something completely different that you won't see from Sony or MS.

NintendOn, is that you?

 

[Captain Smoker]

Is it true 3DS sold 39 million total so far?

Hardware: 31.090.000

Software: 95.030.000

Tie Ratio: 3,06


*As of March 2013

 

[EmCeeGramr]

I'm sure Nintendo is looking very closely at occulus for their next system. It seems perfect for a billion dollar company in 3-4 years to make a hit with. Nintendo has also exhausted most of their other options. They've been looking into 3D for years and that's pretty much a bust outside of theatres right now with no new tech on the horizon. Off screen play and touchscreens is pretty much with the Wii U is taking their ideas from the DS and GBA and combining them on console. I definitely see something like Wii motion controls+virtual reality being the thing they're investigating next and its 100x more exciting to me than 3D and a shitty screen. The most exciting part about speculating Nintendos new system was expecting something completely different that you won't see from Sony or MS.

Behold the Nintendo GameView, with 640x480 screens.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I doubt people who have been playing mostly on DS, Wii, and iOS care about the immersion that the Occulus Rift brings.

Could see people who don't game being interested in the Rift, but I don't think any people who have started gaming recently care that much about the type of stuff it brings.

 

[antitrop]

I can't possibly understand how Dead Island sells so well.

 

[Mpl90]

You know, I'm starting thinking that the next big thing in gaming will come from software, not hardware. And given how "sociality" is so big these days, I'm surprised we haven't seen yet the REAL fusion between sociality (that allows people to express themselves, even to show their talents to lots of people around the world)and gaming: not just streaming of your play session...but giving users the possibility to create their own games, like people can create their own videos / music, and post them on YouTube or other channels. Some pretty easy tools for the beginning (around Java levels), a specific marketplace for these creations, an in-game shop for buying new tools with in-game money or real money (very low amounts), users being rewarded for sales/reception...it could even feature a kind-of-Plus service where, through paying a pretty small fee monthly, you can access to much better tools, but also giving people the possibility to access the Plus for free by selling a good amount of copies...heck, it could work as a good FTP too!

 

[EmCeeGramr]

On the subject of price drops, watch Nintendo be weird again like they did with the 3DS XL, and announce price drops and bundles in a surprise Direct out of nowhere later this month.

 

[sense]

Didn't one of our resident insiders say that virtually no one is making money on the thing? You can't make money on a console where the highest yearly ltd is like 100k, even if you have >1/2 your sales obscured by digital. It's not coasting, it's crashing in a historical way.

yea...no

i don't think I have ever seen one publisher or developer come out and say they have lost money for bringing their game over to vita contrary to reports of software selling like shit on wii u. i have seen the opposite infact where titles albeit niche released in japan have sold more than they have on other platforms. guacamelee developers said vita version sold more than ps3 version so did the guy that made retro city rampage and many other indie developers are happy with their games performance on vita. ubisoft was satisfied with assassins creed liberation and said more games are in development for it. ofcourse all this doesn't exactly lead to increased sales of the system itself but atleast pubs and sony are making money even with a low install base.

 

[Zombie James]

I have a hard time seeing the PS4 and Xbone reviving the market as its slowly dying off. I also have a hard time swing people buy new consoles that are really expensive, if Wii U can't sell at the price it's at then I think the 2 others will have similar problems too

Dying off? We're at the tail-end of an eight-year generation, you can't realistically expect the market to be as healthy in year eight as it was in year three. And the Wii U's problems go way beyond price.

 

[metalslimer]

Yeah I'm more interested in whether Sony's 1st party games like Gravity Rush and LBP Vita actually profited. I'm sure AC and Cod(especially this one) turned a decent profit.

Behold the Nintendo GameView, with 640x480 screens.

Come one can't we at least get qHD =(

It will be very interesting to watch Nintendo next gen. At some point they have to drop BC with one of these systems. If they lose the gamepad they have to drop Wii U BC in the next console, and if they change the design of the next handheld they'll have to drop DS and 3DS BC.

 

[speculawyer]

Considering how much of the growth from 07-09 was due to the DS/Wii, it's going to be a rough few years unless the PS4 takes off as well as most of GAF thinks it will. Between a middling economy and more entertainment choices, the crow-eating a year from now will be grand, methinks.

Yeah, the real pain has been in the handheld area where the ipad,iphone, Android markets wiped them out quite a bit. And it doesn't look like there will be a Wii like phenomenon this round.

But there should still be a strong market in AAA console games. The problem there is that the dev costs are so high that they can't really make much profit.


I'm wondering if the 3rd party publishers are hoping (and pushing?) to have one of the consoles die off in order to reduce dev costs.

 

[Katana_Strikes]

Terrible sales for everything.

The PS3 and 360 need price drops to drive sales now. They just aren't shifting at the current prices, especially as next gen is around the corner which, in the PS4's case, isn't much more expensive than current gen consoles I believe?

The WiiU continues to do horrendous numbers. Whilst they don't look tooooo bad this month because everything else is low, there's no getting away from the fact this is a new system that should be pulling in greater numbers. There's just no interest or games available to do it however and it's too pricey. Poorly handled console, at a price that matches the PS4 in it's premium SKU?

The handhelds are struggling. 3DS is just not doing the numbers it should be. Whilst the 3DS is flat it should be seeing growth, especially with some big hitters arriving and now has a decent catalog of games and without a direct gaming competitor such as the Vita. Which is just scraping the bottom of the barrel. I'd hoped for some announcement of a revision/price drop at E3 but this didn't happen. Not sure what Sony is doing with it, but it is a dead machine. No way they can turn it around in the West. It's a shame for stuff like Tearaway which genuinely looks fab but sales are going to be so depressing for it.

 

[jmdajr]

Yet Dreamcast is nowhere to be found.

awful

 

[Aquamarine]

Hardware: 31.090.000

Software: 95.030.000

Tie Ratio: 3,06


*As of March 2013

As of May/June, 3DS LTD shipments are at least 34 million.

 

[Mpl90]

As of May/June, 3DS LTD shipments are at least 34 million.

I've already seen you posted that number, but from where did you get it?

 

[wrowa]

I'm sure Nintendo is looking very closely at occulus for their next system. It seems perfect for a billion dollar company in 3-4 years to make a hit with. Nintendo has also exhausted most of their other options. They've been looking into 3D for years and that's pretty much a bust outside of theatres right now with no new tech on the horizon. Off screen play and touchscreens is pretty much with the Wii U is taking their ideas from the DS and GBA and combining them on console. I definitely see something like Wii motion controls+virtual reality being the thing they're investigating next and its 100x more exciting to me than 3D and a shitty screen. The most exciting part about speculating Nintendos new system was expecting something completely different that you won't see from Sony or MS.

Nintendo is the last company I can see betting on virtual reality again. It's just a very bad fit for their philosophy: Nintendo's all about playing games together with friends or family in a single room. Ideally, gaming on a console should connect people. Something like the Rift does the exact opposite thing: The player isolates himself from the real world and starts living in a virtual reality. I don't see Nintendo being interested in that. Pretty much none of their franchises would be a good fit either. Mario Kart on the Rift? New Mario Bros? That wouldn't make a lot of sense.

 

[metalslimer]

Here's an interesting question. Does the 3DS beat the GBA in the end total shipped LTD?

Nintendo is the last company I can see betting on virtual reality again. It's just a very bad fit for their philosophy: Nintendo's all about playing games together with friends or family in a single room. Ideally, gaming on a console should connect people. Something like the Rift does the exact opposite thing: The player isolates himself from the real world and starts living in a virtual reality. I don't see Nintendo being interested in that. Pretty much none of their franchises would be a good fit either. Mario Kart on the Rift? New Mario Bros? That wouldn't make a lot of sense.

True which is why I used the MP example because 2d platforms don't seem like a great fit for it. On the other hand, it woulnt have to be the primary selling point of the console. Nintendo' s USP for the 3DS is also a loner feature.

 

[Nirolak]

Here's an interesting question. Does the 3DS beat the GBA in the end total shipped LTD?

This holiday and the ~4 months after will probably be the best sign since all of their major franchises will be out by then.

 

[AniHawk]

Dying off? We're at the tail-end of an eight-year generation, you can't realistically expect the market to be as healthy in year eight as it was in year three. And the Wii U's problems go way beyond price.

it's just been an extremely long generation to the point where people are no longer buying software as they used to. this means that people are just resting on their laurels for a new generation to purchase software!

i don't understand this line of thinking. the overlong generation has damaged the industry.

 

[Aquamarine]

This holiday and the ~4 months after will probably be the best sign since all of their major franchises will be out by then.

The success of Pokemon will be the deciding factor here...explosive popularity could propel 3DS to GBA-level worldwide performance.

 

[Dr. Zoidberg]

Nintendo could team with Occulus and create the Super Virtual Boy. A red and black casing paired with a fancy new controller. A large sticker on the front could say "Now in full COLOR!"

Launch titles could be Mario Clash DX, Super Teleroboxer, and Galactic Pinball 2. I'd probably buy it. Seriously.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

So.... have we gotten VITA and Wii U numbers or should we just say R.I.P to both of them?

I mean with such weak numbers this month, i can't begin to imagine sales number for both of them. Vita was 18k last month, i think. The only major release for it was Soul Sacrifice at end of April/Beginning of May.

Edit: Saw the numbers on the previous page.

PSV 15k - 72.73% drop

Holy crap!

 

[Chrisness]

Does the Oculus Rift even work well for games that aren't FPS?

 

[Pranay]

it's just been an extremely long generation to the point where people are no longer buying software as they used to. this means that people are just resting on their laurels for a new generation to purchase software!

i don't understand this line of thinking. the overlong generation has damaged the industry.

People are buying good games or are still busy playing old games.

Or are playing 10$ Xbla/PSN games.

State of Decay sold like 500 k ? in a week

60$ for AA or average games are dead.

 

[Aeriscloud]

Yet Dreamcast is nowhere to be found.

It's an EA chart right?

 

[Jhriad]

Those software numbers are grim. NPD doesn't include digital downloads does it?

 

[XOMTOR]

Shit.... wonder if sony has had to shut down manufacturing on vita yet like nintendo had to do with the gamecube

If I recall, PSPGo was sold at retail for a bit over 2 years but production was halted after the initial run so it's not completely unreasonable to imagine that Vita production could be halted at least temporarily. Who knows.

 

[bud23]

This Nintendo downfall was predictable .The worst part it´s that they knew how to avoid it and they did nothing to prevent it.

On Wii U, it´s all about demographic:

"The consumer buying Wii hardware today is going to be a different consumer than the one who will be buying Wii U in the future ... We haven't announced pricing for Wii U, but you can definitely expect that pricing is going to be different and that the games are going to be different." Films-Aime, 2011.

EA says no, Take two says nop, Activision nope....

On 3ds, it´s all about demographic:

"We think the 3DS is going to sell well this holiday season(2011)," says Fils-Aime. "It's going to appeal to a different consumer ... For a parent with a 5 or 6 year-old, maybe that's the first handheld you buy them."

Welcome to the future, Reggie.

http://techland.time.com/2011/11/30...uture-of-handhelds-and-wiis-big-holiday-push/

 

[Father_Brain]

If I recall, PSPGo was sold at retail for a bit over 2 years but production was halted after the initial run so it's not completely unreasonable to imagine that Vita production could be halted at least temporarily. Who knows.

Given how badly sales have fallen short of initial expectations, I'd be surprised to find that it's been in continuous production since the launch buildup, yeah. Nintendo may well end up doing the same with Wii U soon.

 

[Hero]

So apparently the first free to play title for Nintendo will be Steel Diver.

http://www.ign.com/articles/2013/06/18/nintendos-free-to-play-game-is-steel-diver

A couple of us were just mentioning how it should be included with new 3DSes. Interesting.

 

[metalslimer]

Given how badly sales have fallen short of initial expectations, I'd be surprised to find that it's been in continuous production since the launch buildup, yeah. Nintendo may well end up doing the same with Wii U soon.

Well assuming Wii U has been shifting 140k a month worldwide (being generous here as I don't know exactly how it's doing in PAL anymore), there is still over 700k systems siting in the channels and sales are sliding still. I don't really know how they could manufacture anymore systems right now considering whatever they originally made is still sitting on shelves and that's not including continued manfuacturing post last FY.

Edit: Steel Diver seems like a weird choice when the game has been dirt cheap for a long time, the game apparently doesn't have much content to begin with, and apparently just isn't that fun. I think Pilotwings would have been a much better choice and more recognizable. SD should just be free.

 

[flippedb]

This Nintendo downfall was predictable .The worst part it´s that they knew how to avoid it and they did nothing to prevent it.

On Wii U, it´s all about demographic:



EA says no, Take two says nop, Activision nope....

On 3ds, it´s all about demographic:

Welcome to the future, Reggie.

http://techland.time.com/2011/11/30...uture-of-handhelds-and-wiis-big-holiday-push/

3DS sold a lot and Wii U's important games aren't out yet. Ridiculous post.

 

[Father_Brain]

Well assuming Wii U has been shifting 140k a month worldwide (being generous here as I don't know exactly how it's doing in PAL anymore), there is still over 700k systems siting in the channels and sales are sliding still. I don't really know how they could manufacture anymore systems right now considering whatever they originally made is still sitting on shelves and that's not including continued manfuacturing post last FY.

Yeah, it's also more than possible that they've already suspended production and just haven't publicly said anything. Actually, why did Nintendo need to make that public with GC back in 2003?

 

[Busaiku]

i think this could be a solution next year. this year, i feel they're focused hard on profitability. they probably don't want to drop the price with pokemon, zelda, and yoshi right around the corner. next year only has smash bros. though.

Yoshi's New Island isn't this year.
So far for next year, there're those 2, Professor Layton & The Azran Legacy, Mario Golf World Tour, and Bravely Default Flying Fairy.
There's also a good chance that Mario Party gets delayed as well.

Still, they've got a lot of time to announce some new games, even if Super Smash Bros is Q4.

 

[BishopLamont]

they already pushed it for the 3ds. they can't afford to make it a habit then people would totally stop buying their hardware at launch if they do big price drops 6 months in. it doesn't matter anyway because they are facing an uphill battle and it remains to be seen if their staple of ips can still revive them come the holiday season with 3rd party support non existent and not having the cushion of install base like they did with the wii. they are going to massively underwhelm when compared to wii. vita still has people buying games for it and games announced albeit small indies, ports, remasters or whatever which tells me they see a market with potential of making some money atleast. big publishers need to see more so they are not bothering with providing exclusive support for vita but they are atleast pushing out ports and what not. systems may not be moving well for sony but some form of software is there and more keep getting announced and i don't see why there would be this push for getting more support if they planned on discontinuing it next year like you say.

it is funny to see people harping on about vita. the sales are not good no doubt but it doesn't look like Sony is worried or pressured like people seem to imply. they are not going to discontinue it and i haven't seen anyone come out and say sony needs to do something about the vita (publishers, retailers and Sony itself) like they do with wii u. yes companies may choose not to support it or retailers may cut down shelf space but thats it. if there was any pressure of it being removed then we would have heard about it or Sony would be taking drastic measures to push for sales. right now sony is just letting it coast along. they are making money on it and probably a lot more than people think if we add memory card, accessories and digital purchases. with all these bundles and adding more games to each bundle as free games with plus etc... all doesn't cost Sony much since they are digital. they will probably do a huge push around september and october with killzone and tearaway and then fall back to coasting along. i have always said it that it will be a slow burn in a world dominated by smartphones and it doesn't make sense losing money on it by dropping price when there is not a lot of demand especially when it is making them and people that put software on it enough money to justify it.

Wii U and 3DS is in trouble but the Vita is just fine...lol

If they're facing a uphill battle, what the hell is vita facing then? Satan himself?

Yeah everythings just fine in the land of Vita, what with the 15k or so monthly sales, ha.

 

[AniHawk]

Yeah, it's also more than possible that they've already suspended production and just haven't publicly said anything. Actually, why did Nintendo need to make that public with GC back in 2003?

because it was hilarious.

 

[bud23]

Wii U's important games aren't out yet. Ridiculous post.

Those important games you mentioned will mostly attract the same demographic segment, Nintendo fans, that already bought a Wii U. I wouldn´t expect a significant improvement in sales. Fascinating post.

 

[AniHawk]

Wii U and 3DS is in trouble but the Vita is just fine...lol

If they're facing a uphill battle, what the hell is vita facing then? Satan himself?

i was trying to be optimistic about the vita. i thought there was a chance for a turnaround later next year. e3 convinced me that sony has no future plans for the machine.

it's dead, jim.