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[Aquamarine]

lameeee

Spoiler

surely there's enough people with access so that leaking one country's numbers won't be enough to catch them?

For the audience that GAF attracts, NPD is much more prominent.

Not to mention, NPD has a very, very long history with GAF.

That same history...just isn't there with GfK. Yeah some GAF members have been posting GfK Chart-Track rankings for a while, and there are some people here on GAF who have access to the numbers, but it's just not the same.

 

[DasDamen]

I really don't understand why he always does this. It seems like he completely ignores specific information that goes against what he's thinking. It's even worse when the subject is talking about sales.

The many debates I've seen with him were trying to get him to understand some details.

Am I the only one noticing this?

Yeah, I'm pretty sure that I just read that attach rates are almost identical for both systems at around 2.9.

Edit: This is probably why Sony released absolute software sales the past week, and MS didn't.

 

[theprodigy]

For the audience that GAF attracts, NPD is much more prominent.

Not to mention, NPD has a very, very long history with GAF.

That same history...just isn't there with GfK. Yeah some GAF members have been posting GfK Chart-Track rankings for a while, and there are some people here on GAF who have access to the numbers, but it's just not the same.

but doesn't that mean GfK leakers would go more unnoticed

Spoiler

besides, how else can we have fun with the Xbox One/Wii U race in France/Germany

 

[cpp_is_king]

I can't help but wonder if that number for FFX HD is a letdown for SE. Even if it's only the PS3 version, and only the physical sales, it still doesn't seem like a high enough number to meet expectations given how long it's been in development, and the fact that it was one of the best games in the franchise. One can only hope that there were a significant number of digital and Vita sales to go along with it.

 

[SwiftDeath]

For the audience that GAF attracts, NPD is much more prominent.

Not to mention, NPD has a very, very long history with GAF.

That same history...just isn't there with GfK. Yeah some GAF members have been posting GfK Chart-Track rankings for a while, and there are some people here on GAF who have access to the numbers, but it's just not the same.

Hmm...

 

[TechnicPuppet]

where did you get this?

I don't see the information that they are selling more games. Where did you find this?

And why? Why do you have no doubt for digital? What is it based on?


There absolutely is evidence, but the other way:

- Many more digital games available on the PS4
- Ability to pre-order
- Cheaper prices in general by more frequent sales and Amazon download codes

I really don't understand why he always does this. It seems like he completely ignores specific information that goes against what he's thinking. It's even worse when the subject is talking about sales.

The many debates I've seen with him were trying to get him to understand some details.

Am I the only one noticing this?

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=108606555&postcount=4202
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=108764952&postcount=6372

LTD as of March 2014:

1) PS4 - 2.91 million @ 2.33 attach/tie = 6.78m
2) XBO - 2.53 million @ 2.96 attach/tie = 7.49m

I have also said why I don't believe DD sales would be higher on PS4 and that there is no proof either way.

 

[QaaQer]

While I agree the XB1 doesn't appear to be in nearly the trouble Wii U is the March NPD results aren't that encouraging either I'd argue.

I would define a failed console as one that causes the manufacturer to leave the business. e.g. The vita is a failed console because Sony is leaving the handheld business.

The Wii U can severely under perform and not be considered a failure because it is certain that Nintendo will be releasing another home console as they have the money and the will.

The PS4 and X1 could sell substantially higher than the wii u and yet they could still be failures because Sony and Microsoft are not nearly as committed to games and consoles as Nintendo.

The fact is that we do not know what bar either Microsoft or Sony have set for their consoles. And as such, we do not know if they are succeeding or not.

 

[Nirolak]

I vehemently disagree with this. Your previous post ignores games like Watch Dogs, the division, the crew, Destiny etc which are AAA and coming to consoles. We have barely started this gen and we have many AAA new IP which are different genres. The notion/theory that people will be disappointed by lack of variety of AAA releases is not supported at all, especially when companies are investing heavily on new AAA ip in different genres. Of course shooters will most likely be dominant but that did not stop last gen from having variety in AAA gaming.

I think this is more a symptom of our definition of variety differing.

Watch Dogs looks a lot like a modern day Assassin's Creed mixed with GTA and Destiny looks like an MMO-ized version of Borderlands to me.

They might very well be excellent games, but it's usually not what immediately pops to mind as really broadening the diversity of AAA gaming relative to what was still selling well at the end of last gen.

I don't imagine myself sitting down with Watch Dogs and going "Wow, this is a huge game changer in terms of game design!". For a gen over gen comparison, when I looked at Assassin's Creed at the start of last gen, I got a notably larger feeling of "This seems different." than I do with recent footage of Watch Dogs.

The Division also seems like a pretty straightforward TPS turned into a loot based MMO online world as well.

The Crew, as far as we can really expect racing games go, does seem fairly unique.

However, I will say that I think anyone who feels those four games represent major change will likely be very happy with the change in game diversity this gen, since that's about what I expect at AAA retail in terms of evolution.

 

[TechnicPuppet]

I think this is more a symptom of our definition of variety differing.

Watch Dogs looks a lot like a modern day Assassin's Creed mixed with GTA and Destiny looks like an MMO-ized version of Borderlands to me.

They might very well be excellent games, but it's usually not what immediately pops to mind as really broadening the diversity of AAA gaming relative to what was still selling well at the end of last gen.

I don't imagine myself sitting down with Watch Dogs and going "Wow, this is a huge game changer in terms of game design!". For a gen over gen comparison, when I looked at Assassin's Creed at the start of last gen, I got a notably larger feeling of "This seems different." than I do with recent footage of Watch Dogs.

The Division also seems like a pretty straightforward TPS turned into a loot based MMO online world as well.

The Crew, as far as we can really expect racing games go, does seem fairly unique.

However, I will say that I think anyone who feels those four games represent major change will likely be very happy with the change in game diversity this gen, since that's about as much as I expect at AAA retail.

Far Cry 3 was like an AC game to me.

 

[Moneal]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=108606555&postcount=4202
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=108764952&postcount=6372

LTD as of March 2014:

1) PS4 - 2.91 million @ 2.33 attach/tie = 6.78m
2) XBO - 2.53 million @ 2.96 attach/tie = 7.49m

I have also said why I don't believe DD sales would be higher on PS4 and that there is no proof either way.

ps4 has more DD games available, probably 2 to 3 times as many. that right there is going to push ps4 dd sales higher than xbox one. unless all TF sales were digital, which we know wasn't the case.

 

[MisterXDTV]

ps4 has more DD games available, probably 2 to 3 times as many. that right there is going to push ps4 dd sales higher than xbox one. unless all TF sales were digital, which we know wasn't the case.

This...

NPD numbers are important for Hardware this generation, a lot of people are going all- digital (including myself) so software numbers are basically "broken"...

 

[TechnicPuppet]

ps4 has more DD games available, probably 2 to 3 times as many. that right there is going to push ps4 dd sales higher than xbox one. unless all TF sales were digital, which we know wasn't the case.

I don't agree. Hundreds of thousands of bundles sales on the XB1 and all the free content on the PS4.

It really doesn't matter though, my original point is that software sales are healthy for the XB1 and there is no need for people to "worry" on their behalf.

 

[Moneal]

I don't agree. Hundreds of thousands of bundles sales on the XB1 and all the free content on the PS4.

It really doesn't matter though, my original point is that software sales are healthy for the XB1 and there is no need for people to "worry" on their behalf.

its really only good in the US. Everywhere else its not good on either hardware or software. that is why people are worrying. 360 dominated ps3 in the us by almost 20m in hardware and even worse in software. yet xbox one demand is being met in the us, while ps4's hasn't yet. and ps4 is still selling better, while only having slightly worse attach rate at retail.

also the ps4 free stuff isn't even a third of the DD games available that aren't available at retail. Trine2, Super Motherload, flower, tiny brains, Escape Plan, Doki Doki Universe, flOw, Pinball arcade, Zen Pinball, Basement Crawl, Awsomenauts, Towerfall, Steamworld Dig, and fez are not available at all at retail, and are not free on ps4. some are cross buy, but only a few. I just don't see how xbox one is going to have more dd sales when it doesn't have even close to that number of DD only games.

 

[TechnicPuppet]

its really only good in the US. Everywhere else its not good on either hardware or software. that is why people are worrying. 360 dominated ps3 in the us by almost 20m in hardware and even worse in software. yet xbox one demand is being met in the us, while ps4's hasn't yet. and ps4 is still selling better, while only having slightly worse attach rate at retail.

also the ps4 free stuff isn't even a third of the DD games available that aren't available at retail. Trine2, Super Motherload, flower, tiny brains, Escape Plan, Doki Doki Universe, flOw, Pinball arcade, Zen Pinball, Basement Crawl, Awsomenauts, Towerfall, Steamworld Dig, and fez are not available at all at retail, and are not free on ps4. some are cross buy, but only a few. I just don't see how xbox one is going to have more dd sales when it doesn't have even close to that number of DD only games.

This is the NPD thread so that's what I was discussing. I have no idea what XB1 game sales are like elsewhere, certainly not enough to bridge the hardware difference gap though i'd imagine.

I have a PS4 I know what's available and I don't think they have sold more than XB1 bundle and online store games added together.

 

[Admiral Bone to Pick]

I would define a failed console as one that causes the manufacturer to leave the business. e.g. The vita is a failed console because Sony is leaving the handheld business.

The Wii U can severely under perform and not be considered a failure because it is certain that Nintendo will be releasing another home console as they have the money and the will.

The PS4 and X1 could sell substantially higher than the wii u and yet they could still be failures because Sony and Microsoft are not nearly as committed to games and consoles as Nintendo.

The fact is that we do not know what bar either Microsoft or Sony have set for their consoles. And as such, we do not know if they are succeeding or not.

So the original Xbox isn't a failure because it didn't cause Microsoft to leave the business, even though it had mostly middling sales and made MS lose about $6 billion? Or the PS3 which caused Sony to lose billions of dollars and significant marketshare?

 

[Artorias]

This is the NPD thread so that's what I was discussing. I have no idea what XB1 game sales are like elsewhere, certainly not enough to bridge the hardware difference gap though i'd imagine.

I have a PS4 I know what's available and I don't think they have sold more than XB1 bundle and online store games added together.

Interesting choice of words, considering you keep bringing up theoretical sales that aren't charted by NPD.

Whatever you want to believe is fine, anyone who reads Gaf regularly knows you have a strong bias for one company. Seems a little silly though to try to stifle conversation on a topic you continue bringing up.

 

[140.85]

I'm going to wait until after E3 to give an errant thought of mine any merit or recognition...but it just keeps coming up: I get the impression that this will be the first generation where the hardware sells, but publishers will constantly be looking elsewhere for a quick buck or a new angle. I keep having visions of post-mortems written 4-5 years from now with titles like "Sony built it, but they did not come". Am I crazy?

 

[SwiftDeath]

I'm going to wait until after E3 to give an errant thought of mine any merit or recognition...but it just keeps coming up: I get the impression that this will be the first generation where the hardware sells, but publishers will constantly be looking elsewhere for a quick buck or a new angle. I keep having visions of post-mortems written 4-5 years from now with titles like "Sony built it, but they did not come". Am I crazy?

Publishers seem more risk-averse at the start of this generation than any previous iteration

It really is a terrifying proposition. Hopefully indie developers can quickly fill the shoes of the mid-tier developers but I worry they can't do enough in time

 

[TechnicPuppet]

Interesting choice of words, considering you keep bringing up theoretical sales that aren't charted by NPD.

Whatever you want to believe is fine, anyone who reads Gaf regularly knows you have a strong bias for one company. Seems a little silly though to try to stifle conversation on a topic you continue bringing up.

That's a nice narrative you have created there, loved the personal attack at the end as well.

I don't see the point of discussing ww game sales when we don't have figures. People can't even agree to disagree on DD sales in the US. So I said Sony will have sold more ww and it's still not good enough.

 

[CosmicQueso]

I think you're thinking about this a bit too extreme in either direction.

Gaming is becoming a lot like Hollywood, where you have major $200 million blockbusters, and then some notably cheaper movies.

The blockbusters, while not super plentiful, don't actually disappear. However, they do overwhelmingly tend to be a from a few sub-genres like superhero movies, centerpiece CG animated films, and various sci-fi/fantasy action/adventure films. These are akin to modern day AAA games.

Then there's still a lot of smaller stuff like art house films, romantic comedies, or smaller action films that don't cost nearly as much to make and are satisfied with a notably lower performance. These are akin to digital games.

Just because people can watch TV for free, it ultimately hasn't stopped them from going to the theater, because the content they want still exists there. They just don't go to the theater and much as they might have back in the days of Gone With The Wind. Despite this, the biggest movies still make an astronomical amount of money.

What we've lost is more akin to the type of serial programming that used to run before a movie like Flash Gordon, because that's obviously a much better fit for something like television (since the format is effectively the same) and a variety of movies that now are delivered as direct to video, when they might have been in theaters if we turn the clock back 60-80 years. This is most akin to casual gaming moving to video or certain types of mid-tier titles disappearing or getting even lower budget renditions as digital games.

If your hope is for healthy variety among AAA games, then yeah, overall you're going to be disappointed. However, I don't think you need to fear most of the remaining types of blockbusters drying up.

Completely agree and will steal this line of thought and claim it as my own in the future.

The book Blockbusters by Anita Elberse does a lot to address and describe what's happening, and is worth a read if you're into this type of thing.

One other bit... software sales aren't really the problem. Both consoles are doing very well, with strong attach rates and fast adoption. The main hurdle is still the cost of making 1080p/60frame content which meets the quality and quantity (game length) demands of consumers to make console development profitable. Demand for software is not as big a problem as being able to provide software Supply.

 

[Apophis2036]

Because I expect Xbone to sell a lot less than 50% of PS4's lifetime sales. I think part of why Wii U was bombing (apart from being way too expensive for a 'last gen' console of course), was because people were waiting for 'real next gen' to make a decision. Xbone shot out of the gate due to brand recognition and the start of the gen, but I think the value proposition is not there with respect to PS4. The only way they can mitigate it if MS is wanting to make a loss again and significantly undercut the PS4, which I guess we just have to wait if they want to go there.

I think things will become much clearer with regards to who "wins" this generation and by how much when both PS4 and XBone are the same MSRP which could happen as soon as E3 in early June.

I think a lot of people on here and on enthusiast gaming forums in general give far too much credence to the fact PS4 can run games at 1080p native as opposed to 720p upscaled to 1080p or both being 1080p native with PS4 having double the framerate in certain cases.

Have you ever actually brought this up amongst friends who are into gaming but don't read games forums ?. They honestly couldn't give a damn about little details (to them) like that and if you go a step further out from enthusiasts like us, really casual players just look at you like you have spoken a foreign language lol.

The main issues for 90% of consumers is price, available games and what their gaming buddies have. If PS4 wins the generation by a large margin it will have very, very little to do with the fact that it's GPU is 50% more powerful and it has faster RAM imo.

 

[Artorias]

That's a nice narrative you have created there, loved the personal attack at the end as well.

Lol, what? Care to elaborate?

 

[TomShoe]

Lol, what? Care to elaborate?

He's saying you're accusing him of being pro-Microsoft.

 

[Moneal]

I think things will become much clearer with regards to who "wins" this generation and by how much when both PS4 and XBone are the same MSRP which could happen as soon as E3 in early June.

I think a lot of people on here and on enthusiast gaming forums in general give far too much credence to the fact PS4 can run games at 1080p native as opposed to 720p upscaled to 1080p or both being 1080p native with PS4 having double the framerate in certain cases.

Have you ever actually brought this up amongst friends who are into gaming but don't read games forums ?. They honestly couldn't give a damn about little details (to them) like that and if you go a step further out from enthusiasts like us, really casual players just look at you like you have spoken a foreign language lol.

The main issues for 90% of consumers is price, available games and what their gaming buddies have. If PS4 wins the generation by a large margin it will have very, very little to do with the fact that it's GPU is 50% more powerful and it has faster RAM imo.

if ms does drop the msrp to 400, i doubt sony would keep ps4 at the same msrp. they could cut the price down to 350 and still not be losing near what ms would be on the one at 400.

 

[Apophis2036]

if ms does drop the msrp to 400, i doubt sony would keep ps4 at the same msrp. they could cut the price down to 350 and still not be losing near what ms would be on the one at 400.

If I were Sony I would feel confident of still outselling XBone at the same price.

 

[SwiftDeath]

if ms does drop the msrp to 400, i doubt sony would keep ps4 at the same msrp. they could cut the price down to 350 and still not be losing near what ms would be on the one at 400.

If I were Sony I would feel confident of still outselling XBone at the same price.

I highly highly doubt Sony drop price just as a reaction to MS dropping price. They would wait to see if demand shifts more than they are happy with at the very least but even then I doubt we'll see a PS4 price drop before next year

Bundles this holiday though most likely

 

[coldfoot]

It looks like you're right. First search result for "2.9" in this thread was a post by Aquamarine.


Both the 5m and 2.9 figure came from the same MS PR, but it looks like the 2.9 figure was just MS quoting NPD.

I'll wager 2.9 is an upper bound in the worldwide software attach rate for MS. Other countries besides the US most likely have lower attach rates due to more expensive game prices and less disposable income. But since it came from NPD, we'll have to assume it's only for physical.

Now, does the 20.5M for PS4 software include digital or not?

 

[Apophis2036]

I highly highly doubt Sony drop price just as a reaction to MS dropping price. They would wait to see if demand shifts more than they are happy with at the very least but even then I doubt we'll see a PS4 price drop before next year

Bundles this holiday though most likely

I agree, many peoples instant reaction seems to be "well Sony would just drop to $349 if MS drops to $399" but I don't see why they should. They have an incredibly successful product with great mind share which shows no signs of slowing down anytime soon.

Personally I have been blown away by both consoles early sales tbh, I thought after the initial 3 or 4 million hardcore gamers bought them they would have slowed right down in February to sub 200K per month until much later in the year. I didn't expect numbers of anything approaching 10 million units until they both got down to $299 sometime in 2015. PS4 could very well hit 10 million units after only 9 months.

I do wonder after these strong sales and in an age of $600 yearly smartphones (which people eat up) if we will see a return to much shorter generational cycles of maybe four or five years.

Even at $399 a new or upgraded system every four years should see very well.

 

[jvm]

Hi all.

1) Glad my UK charts are useful. I will update as soon as I can.

2) Tie ratio is games/console. Attach rate is consoles/game. Tie ratios are usually greater than 1. Attach rates are between 0 and 1. This is the usual language that NPD uses.

3) Love the late phase of a good sales-age thread. So many trolls gone and the rational discussion remains.

Bye.

 

[Biker19]

I expect MS to show a lot of third party exclusives this E3 but the following years it will become harder for MS to relay on third party/2nd party titles

And just coming out with Halo, Forza, & Gears won't save Microsoft this time around like with the E3 2010 to present years of the Xbox 360, especially when both Halo & Gears aren't like what they used to be.

They need to come up with something fresh & new.

 

[George Claw M.D.]

I'll wager 2.9 is an upper bound in the worldwide software attach rate for MS. Other countries besides the US most likely have lower attach rates due to more expensive game prices and less disposable income. But since it came from NPD, we'll have to assume it's only for physical.

Now, does the 20.5M for PS4 software include digital or not?

Yes, from Sony PR

PS4 software sales are another bright spot, with more than 20.5 million copies sold at retail and PlayStation Store worldwide as of April 13th, 2014.

If we had accurate worldwide retail software sales up to April 13, it would be easy to determine digital sales for PS4 by simple subtraction.

 

[Puppet Shadow]

Hi all.

1) Glad my UK charts are useful. I will update as soon as I can.

2) Tie ratio is games/console. Attach rate is consoles/game. Tie ratios are usually greater than 1. Attach rates are between 0 and 1. This is the usual language that NPD uses.

3) Love the late phase of a good sales-age thread. So many trolls gone and the rational discussion remains.

Bye.

Matt, you no longer writing for Gamasutra? I haven't see your excellent NPD articles there the last few months.

 

[Apophis2036]

Price promotion is an effective tool to convert SHOPPERS to PURCHASERS.

What price promotion isn't as efficient at, is converting CONSUMERS to SHOPPERS.

The product itself, to add to your point, has to have a baseline group of 'shoppers' - i.e. people who actively want information about the product, but are still in the 'browsing' phase - maybe they are waiting for software, maybe they are waiting for a different value proposition, maybe they think the cost is too high... but they are actively seeking information about the product, they have indicated interest in becoming a PURCHASER.

That is the audience price programs target.

If you suddenly drop the price and don't have people who are currently in the 'shopper position' for said product, you basically are pissing money away. Because it's that much harder to bring the price back up to a profitable number if you eventually turn around the product into something consumers want.

There's just not enough baseline interest for a massive Wii U price drop to be affect at this point. They have to re-target it and build up demand for it's native offering. They'll come back with a heavy family positioning, I imagine, which Iwata admitted they deviated too far from initially. Kids kids kids kids.

There could well be a lot of SHOPPERS just waiting on WiiU being $249 with a pack in game (esp as Nintendo's last console sold what 40 million ? in North America at that price point).

How would we know there isn't ?. When a seller sold the NSMB / NSL U bundle last year for $250 on ebay he sold something in the region of 1300 consoles in a matter of a few hours. The month before that WiiU sold just over 30 000 in a whole NPD month. That suggest to me that a great many people are interested in the product but not at it's current price point.

If Nintendo could somehow take the losses and create a $249 MK8 bundle along with significant advertising then I think sales of WiiU would absolutely explode.

It's a shame they aren't willing to take significant short term loses in order to save the console because I think it's possible.

 

[ethomaz]

I don't agree. Hundreds of thousands of bundles sales on the XB1 and all the free content on the PS4.

It really doesn't matter though, my original point is that software sales are healthy for the XB1 and there is no need for people to "worry" on their behalf.

I agree that the software is healtly for Xbone in US... You are right.

But when you say it is better than PS4 you are looking just to retail because I guess PS4 software ratio in US is better than Xbone when you add digital.

 

[ultratruman]

It's absurd that the BOM for the Xbone itself is higher than the PS4, despite having impactfully weaker processing power...

I don't know whether to congratulate Sony's engineers or ridicule the Xbone's wasteful design. What a nightmare for MS, unless they rush out a redesign I don't see how they can come out the other side of a price-war victiorious.

 

[jvm]

This is off-topic, but I'll try to answer briefly.

Matt, you no longer writing for Gamasutra? I haven't see your excellent NPD articles there the last few months.

I am temporarily on hiatus, because real life has severely constrained my free time. I keep up with sales, stay in touch with people when I can, and will keep making updates on UK sales when I can. I believe that anything I can contribute to Gamasutra will be welcomed, as before, but with the understanding that I cannot commit to regular columns at this time. I love writing for them, and I believe we parted on great terms.

Meanwhile, I love being able to come here and read and post when I can. GAF is my virtual community outside of real life.

That's it. Thanks for asking.

 

[Liabe Brave]

I'll wager 2.9 is an upper bound in the worldwide software attach rate for MS. Other countries besides the US most likely have lower attach rates due to more expensive game prices and less disposable income.

This is an interesting question for sure; it's unfortunate we don't have the data to make hard conclusions. But for Sony we can establish some parameters to work within, because we have their worldwide retail+digital and their U.S. retail.

The precise retail sales for PS4 in the U.S. are 6.78m units. Let's begin by assuming--contra your hypothesis--that global retail tie ratio is exactly the same. U.S. hardware represents ~41% of global hardware, so if America is ~41% of retail software, then global retail sales are ~17m. Global digital sales would thus be ~3.5m units, or ~17% of total sales.

Is this scenario actually the case? We have no way to tell, and it's unlikely since it requires no variance in consumer behavior around the world. But we've established that U.S. retail tie ratio and global digital sales covary. So any idea about how one of these values differs from the scenario above automatically entails a conclusion about how the other one varies. (If the math isn't clear about why this is, I or someone else can provide further explanation.) The reciprocal constraints can be described two different ways, depending if you want to theorize about U.S. retail tie ratio or global digital sales:

1. If PS4 U.S. retail tie ratio is higher than the rest of the world, then global digital sales must be higher than 3.5m units/17% of all sales. If U.S. retail tie ratio is lower than elsewhere, then worldwide digital sales must be lower.
2. If PS4 global digital sales are higher than 3.5m units/17% of all sales, then U.S. retail tie ratio is higher than the rest of the world. If global digital sales are lower, then U.S. retail tie ratio is lower than elsewhere.

 

[Lemondish]

I agree, many peoples instant reaction seems to be "well Sony would just drop to $349 if MS drops to $399" but I don't see why they should. They have an incredibly successful product with great mind share which shows no signs of slowing down anytime soon.

Personally I have been blown away by both consoles early sales tbh, I thought after the initial 3 or 4 million hardcore gamers bought them they would have slowed right down in February to sub 200K per month until much later in the year. I didn't expect numbers of anything approaching 10 million units until they both got down to $299 sometime in 2015. PS4 could very well hit 10 million units after only 9 months.

I do wonder after these strong sales and in an age of $600 yearly smartphones (which people eat up) if we will see a return to much shorter generational cycles of maybe four or five years.

Even at $399 a new or upgraded system every four years should see very well.

I believe the only way to accept a relatively shorter generation would be if the next gen was 100% backwards compatible. I think that's entirely possible.

Given how long the seventh generation lasted, and how decent the games still looked by the end of it, I don't quite see why they would want to release a new box in 5 years, though.

 

[John Harker]

There could well be a lot of SHOPPERS just waiting on WiiU being $249 with a pack in game (esp as Nintendo's last console sold what 40 million ? in North America at that price point).

How would we know there isn't ?. When a seller sold the NSMB / NSL U bundle last year for $250 on ebay he sold something in the region of 1300 consoles in a matter of a few hours. The month before that WiiU sold just over 30 000 in a whole NPD month. That suggest to me that a great many people are interested in the product but not at it's current price point.

If Nintendo could somehow take the losses and create a $249 MK8 bundle along with significant advertising then I think sales of WiiU would absolutely explode.

It's a shame they aren't willing to take significant short term loses in order to save the console because I think it's possible.

I'm sure they have an idea. There's lots of studies they could commission to give them idea of their current shopper profile, and what mom is looking for in the marketplace.

Its why its so easy for fans to say 'why they so stupid, drop price' when I'm sure Nintendo has enough data to at least reasonably plan a strategy around its current failures... They goal should be to mitigated loss and recoup where possible, not just burn out and try again

 

[Aquamarine]

Nearly 7,000 posts. Holy crap guys...NPD threads are usually dead by this point.

 

[Game Guru]

I'm sure they have an idea. There's lots of studies they could commission to give them idea of their current shopper profile, and what mom is looking for in the marketplace.

Its why its so easy for fans to say 'why they so stupid, drop price' when I'm sure Nintendo has enough data to at least reasonably plan a strategy around its current failures... They goal should be to mitigated loss and recoup where possible, not just burn out and try again

Well, it could be that the Wii fanbase is just waiting for the Wii U to get to $250 with a game, just that Nintendo can't afford to take that huge a loss on the Wii U, especially since they are already losing money. Nintendo might think it better to let the Wii U run its course and come back at the market from a different angle in the next generation.

 

[stryke]

Nearly 7,000 posts. Holy crap guys...NPD threads are usually dead by this point.

Some ludicrous speculation here and there but relatively gaf has been well behaved as well. I've only seen one ban.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Nearly 7,000 posts. Holy crap guys...NPD threads are usually dead by this point.

I may have been a contributing factor to that....

 

[Puppet Shadow]

I may have been a contributing factor to that....

Just looked it up, lol

Spoiler

You come in first at exactly 100 posts!

 

[PeregrinSe7en]

It's absurd that the BOM for the Xbone itself is higher than the PS4, despite having impactfully weaker processing power...

I don't know whether to congratulate Sony's engineers or ridicule the Xbone's wasteful design. What a nightmare for MS, unless they rush out a redesign I don't see how they can come out the other side of a price-war victiorious.

BOM?

help me

 

[ambientmystic]

BOM?

help me

BOM = Bill of Materials.

 

[Arklite]

It's absurd that the BOM for the Xbone itself is higher than the PS4, despite having impactfully weaker processing power...

I don't know whether to congratulate Sony's engineers or ridicule the Xbone's wasteful design. What a nightmare for MS, unless they rush out a redesign I don't see how they can come out the other side of a price-war victiorious.

I'd congratulate the Sony engineers. They basically released the PS4 slim right off the bat, being smaller and cheaper.

 

[PeregrinSe7en]

BOM = Bill of Materials.

oh i see.

generally, hardware with more power should have the higher BOM

are there any other instances like this?

 

[thepotatoman]

Nearly 7,000 posts. Holy crap guys...NPD threads are usually dead by this point.

Well, this basically did confirm the standings of all three consoles for foreseeable future. Microsoft is going to have to announce something unexpected or a really good price drop to have another decent shot at winning even one monthly battle.

I'm still curious to find out next month if XBO was propped up from a horrible month by Titanfall bundles/sales, or if this is just a normal month and Titanfall bundles simply didn't do anything at all, but I doubt that question is going to get as much attention as the general standings.

 

[Mory Dunz]

There could well be a lot of SHOPPERS just waiting on WiiU being $249 with a pack in game (esp as Nintendo's last console sold what 40 million ? in North America at that price point).

How would we know there isn't ?. When a seller sold the NSMB / NSL U bundle last year for $250 on ebay he sold something in the region of 1300 consoles in a matter of a few hours. The month before that WiiU sold just over 30 000 in a whole NPD month. That suggest to me that a great many people are interested in the product but not at it's current price point.

If Nintendo could somehow take the losses and create a $249 MK8 bundle along with significant advertising then I think sales of WiiU would absolutely explode.

It's a shame they aren't willing to take significant short term loses in order to save the console because I think it's possible.

Is that really impressive. It was a sale so of course it going to sell a bit. But whether it would stay is the question.

Even looking at those numbers, at 30,000 in a month, the Wii U sold 1000 a day anyway. That 1,300 in a few hours...really isn't anything special. Long term is more important anyway.