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[BoboBrazil]

There was tons of promos for the Wii U during Christmas. Tons. I almost bit several times but I decided to wait until at least E3 to see how healthy the platform would be going into 2014.

I don't know how many people took advantage, but I remember a ton of people biting on that $249 Wind Waker bundle at Target. I believe Nintendo has already dropped internal support for the system and no new games will be released other than what was already in development and retailers will have huge clearance sales by the end of the year. Nintendo won't continue developing software on bombed hardware. I have a negative view of Nintendo's future as a whole under Iwata. QOL will just be the next flop under him trying to create a new gimmick to get sales as with 3d on the 3ds and tablet controller on Wii U.

 

[Dr. Kitty Muffins]

Hmm I guess we agree to disagree but perhaps you're right. The bundles and lower prices for the 3DS didn't seem to help it that much in Nov but that's a handheld so who knows?



I think the deal with publishers very clearly stipulates how the free games are handled. If sony could they would give you the free games automatically I'm pretty sure

Well, to be fair, the 360 and PS3 had alot of promos during Christmas too. Which they should, seeing as how they are both ancient hardware by now. Retailers really threw alot our way last Christmas just to get stuff to move.

 

[Aquamarine]

They're wrong more often than right and just retroactively adjust their bogus numbers once MC, Chart Track and NPD come out. Its fiction, and not even believable fiction.

Just to clarify:

GfK Group:

* Market research institute based in Germany, world's 4th largest market research organisation (€1.5 billion annual revenue)

* Tracks the entirety of European video game sales, as:

GfK Chart-Track - Acquired subsidiary, tracks U.K., Ireland video game sales

GfK Retail and Technology - Massive international network tracks video game sales from: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, and Ukraine, among other countries around the world

GfK is a close partner of the NPD Group and they work together in many instances.

* Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo all believe GfK data as fact, and use it when determining future corporate strategy. Nintendo also uses its own proprietary services.

* GfK data is used by leading video game publishers like Ubisoft, Activision, EA, and Take-Two to track the European sales of their video games.



NPD Group:

* International research institute based in New York

* Leading authority for North American and Australian sell-through data

* Tracks the following video game sales:

NPD Group - USA
NPD Group - Canada
NPD Group - Australia (partnered with GfK)
NPD Group - New Zealand (partnered with GfK)

* Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo all believe NPD data is fact, and use it when determining future corporate strategy

* NPD data is used by leading video game publishers like Ubisoft, Activision, EA, and Take-Two to track the North American sales of their video games.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Well, to be fair, the 360 and PS3 had alot of promos during Christmas too. Which they should, seeing as how they are both ancient hardware by now. Retailers really threw alot our way last Christmas just to get stuff to move.

I must admit I thought the 360 and PS3 would've sold much better considering their libraries and the promos on them. I mean 200 bucks for a ps3 + TLOU + batman was great.

360 bundle was good too and I think it had like 4 games?

 

[heidern]

You would think PS Plus would do more for the Vita. I'm thinking of picking one up now just because I have all of those free games.

Sony overshot the market with their pricing. Handhelds are a secondary device so they need secondry pricing.

I believe Nintendo has already dropped internal support for the system and no new games will be released other than what was already in development and retailers will have huge clearance sales by the end of the year. Nintendo won't continue developing software on bombed hardware. I have a negative view of Nintendo's future as a whole under Iwata. QOL will just be the next flop under him trying to create a new gimmick to get sales as with 3d on the 3ds and tablet controller on Wii U.

Sega tried that strategy when they killed off the Saturn early. It led to the failure of the Dreamcast and forced them out of the hardware market because their reputation was destroyed. Nintendo are stuck with the Wii U for at least another three years. They might delay Zelda or a Mario Galaxy to the launch of the next console and they might not greenlight new AAA IPs for it, but they'll provide a supply of 10-20 games(first and third party) for it along with virtual console and indie games.

 

[BoboBrazil]

Sega tried that strategy when they killed off the Saturn early. It led to the failure of the Dreamcast and forced them out of the hardware market because their reputation was destroyed. Nintendo are stuck with the Wii U for at least another three years. They might delay Zelda or a Mario Galaxy to the launch of the next console and they might not greenlight new AAA IPs for it, but they'll provide a supply of 10-20 games(first and third party) for it along with virtual console and indie games.

I'm not saying they will outright come out and say they are killing it. Just don't look for much after the titles already announced. I would be amazed if there is a Nintendo game that comes out on it Christmas 2015 other than maybe X.

 

[noobie]

Just to clarify:

GfK Group:

* Market research institute based in Germany, world's 4th largest market research organisation (€1.5 billion annual revenue)

* Tracks the entirety of European video game sales, as:

GfK Chart-Track - Acquired subsidiary, tracks U.K., Ireland video game sales

GfK Retail and Technology - Massive international network tracks video game sales from: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, and Ukraine, among other countries around the world

GfK is a close partner of the NPD Group and they work together in many instances.

* Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo all believe GfK data as fact, and use it when determining future corporate strategy. Nintendo also uses its own proprietary services.

* GfK data is used by leading video game publishers like Ubisoft, Activision, EA, and Take-Two to track the European sales of their video games.



NPD Group:

* International research institute based in New York

* Leading authority for North American and Australian sell-through data

* Tracks the following video game sales:

NPD Group - USA
NPD Group - Canada
NPD Group - Australia (partnered with GfK)
NPD Group - New Zealand (partnered with GfK)

* Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo all believe NPD data is fact, and use it when determining future corporate strategy

* NPD data is used by leading video game publishers like Ubisoft, Activision, EA, and Take-Two to track the North American sales of their video games.

Do they release Canada Numbers too.? Why there are no leaks of them.?

 

[AniHawk]

I'm not saying they will outright come out and say they are killing it. Just don't look for much after the titles already announced. I would be amazed if there is a Nintendo game that comes out on it Christmas 2015 other than maybe X.

i have to imagine that zelda, smt x fe, and animal crossing are all projects well underway for a release in 2015.

ead tokyo is probably one and done with the machine. same with retro. their talents need to support the upcoming handheld/console.

 

[Aquamarine]

Do they release Canada Numbers too.? Why there are no leaks of them.?

Yes they do.

But just because someone has access to USA numbers, doesn't necessarily mean they have access to Canadian numbers as well.

Generally, it's been said that Canada is about 10% of the North American market, so its numbers are much less relevant in terms of console performance.

 

[jcm]

You guys maybe missed my post on the monthly sales:
1) DS hardware sales only declined 16% compared to last year. Software sales increased 6%.
2) The DS has not had a price cut for two and a half years thus saturating the current pricepoint. In fact the good sales in November 770K(up from 540K in November 2012) followed by a relatively weak December ~1M(down from 1.25M in December 2012) suggests even more that there was a saturation of the price point.
3) The $129 SKU is a gimped SKU and although lower in price is not higher in value. A $149 3DS and a $99 2DS would mean an increase in value proposition and increase sales.

Economy of scale on the 3DS is improving and maybe production improvements have been made so a price cut is becoming more and more affordable(the hardware is already being sold at a profit). Going to $149 will also only be a $20 cut and so additional game sales will make this up relatively quickly. I expect either they cut in March to get some out at the lower price before the financial year end(allowing them to boast good news about increased sales and also they can account for some of the 'losses' on hardware this financial year making it easier to get growth next year) or they'll cut it later in the year to maximise profit margins(maybe August/September and rely on a holiday boost or May if they think it needs a boost through the summer).

A 16% YOY decline is large, particularly since it was declining from an unimpressive number. It's not something to be minimized with the qualifier "only".

I find the idea that there's a large cohort of people who a) want a dedicated handheld, b) look down their noses at the 2DS and c) are deterred by twenty bucks really far fetched.

 

[smurfx]

Complete spectrum of NPD hardware sales estimates:

PS4: 271K
XB1: 141K
3DS: ~97K
PS3: ~53.5K
Wii U: 49K
360: ~48.5K
Vita: <17K

can sony or microsoft ever release a ps3/xbox 360 for 149.99? not a gimped console either. looks like that might be the only way for them to see any good sales going forward.

 

[noobie]

Yes they do.

But just because someone has access to USA numbers, doesn't necessarily mean they have access to Canadian numbers as well.

Generally, it's been said that Canada is about 10% of the North American market, so its numbers are much less relevant in terms of console performance.

I am not saying you must have Canadian numbers too.. But i m surprised we dont have any leakers for Canada market. Also it never been mentioned.. usually like recently we got numbers of Australian market 65k for XBO first 3 days and then Sony claiming recently to have taken the top spot..

So thats why a bit surprised.. every market is unique like

Spoiler

retailers begging in NZ for people to buy PS4.

 

[Imperfected]

I am not saying you must have Canadian numbers too.. But i m surprised we dont have any leakers for Canada market. Also it never been mentioned.. usually like recently we got numbers of Australian market 65k for XBO first 3 days and then Sony claiming recently to have taken the top spot..

So thats why a bit surprised.. every market is unique like

Spoiler

retailers begging in NZ for people to buy PS4.

NPD does track more localized regional data, but that's not something you're likely to see leaked considering how much more valuable it is to them as a commodity. That data is mostly an amusing aside to most people in this thread, but far more interesting than the "meat" (NA-wide numbers) to most publishers.

I mean, it's not like creamsugar is some horrible traitor trying to ruin NPD's business. He/She releases information that we find very interesting but doesn't "cost" NPD much to have it going public, not their actual stock-in-trade data whose value is what this continued enterprise relies on.

 

[Aquamarine]

NPD does track more localized regional data, but that's not something you're likely to see leaked considering how much more valuable it is to them as a commodity. That data is mostly an amusing aside to most people in this thread, but far more interesting than the "meat" (NA-wide numbers) to most publishers.

I mean, it's not like creamsugar is some horrible traitor trying to ruin NPD's business. He/She releases information that we find very interesting but doesn't "cost" NPD much to have it going public, not their actual stock-in-trade data whose value is what this continued enterprise relies on.

Precisely. NPD doesn't mind at all that we come in here and leak a few hardware numbers...because the people who really care about it are already NPD clients. And hey...it's just a few data points out of the thousands and thousands in the NPD archives. A few leaks won't hurt anybody.

Now if we were to leak a massive amount of NPD data...like thousands of game sales + revenues all at once every single month...that's when they'd really start to have a problem.

 

[AniHawk]

can sony or microsoft ever release a ps3/xbox 360 for 149.99? not a gimped console either. looks like that might be the only way for them to see any good sales going forward.

yes, but the time for these was years ago.

 

[AniHawk]

Now if we were to leak a massive amount of NPD data...like thousands of game sales + revenues all at once every single month...that's when they'd really start to have a problem.

you're talking about the golden age.

 

[Aquamarine]

you're talking about the golden age.

I wasn't on GAF at that time, but I understand that pre-2007 NPD threads were all deleted for a good reason.

 

[Hero]

you're talking about the golden age.

I miss those days.

 

[Imperfected]

I wasn't on GAF at that time, but I understand that pre-2007 NPD threads were all deleted for a good reason.

We're all trying our hardest to forget the Bush administration, that's all.

 

[Striek]

I wasn't on GAF at that time, but I understand that pre-2007 NPD threads were all deleted for a good reason.

NPD threatening to sue and an agreement was formed to give platforms + top 10's that didn't last long IIRC?

Sad times. Though all the old data is still out there on teh interwebs if you have enough patience and google-fu.

 

[theprodigy]

you're talking about the golden age.

wait what for real
god damn it why isn't there the equivalent of Media Create/Famitsu over here

 

[Aquamarine]

wait what for real
god damn it why isn't there the equivalent of Media Create/Famitsu over here

NPD has had a monopoly on the video game sales market for like...20 years now.

It's very hard for a newcomer to suddenly enter the market when all of NPD's clients would rather prefer the established and extraordinarily accurate alternative instead.

 

[AniHawk]

wait what for real
god damn it why isn't there the equivalent of Media Create/Famitsu over here

every month from at least 2002 through october 2006.

november 2006 was when the hammer came down.

 

[donny2112]

I wasn't on GAF at that time, but I understand that pre-2007 NPD threads were all deleted for a good reason.

Nov-2006 is when the hammer came down, though there were rumblings going back to 2005 that caused some to delete their posts. Don't know if the Youtube video was what really brought the attention in, but it was definitely not a good idea to go advertising NPD-GAF like that.

Edit:
I did not refresh to see AniHawk's post before posting, and we both used the same terminology for Nov-2006. :lol

 

[SwiftDeath]

Ah so that's why there was nothing prior to 2007. Thought the archives were strangely empty

 

[Aquamarine]

every month from at least 2002 through october 2006.

november 2006 was when the hammer came down.

Nov-2006 is when the hammer came down, though there were rumblings going back to 2005 that caused some to delete their posts. Don't know if the Youtube video was what really brought the attention in, but it was definitely not a good idea to go advertising NPD-GAF like that.

Edit:
I did not refresh to see AniHawk's post before posting, and we both used the same terminology for Nov-2006. :lol

What was the YouTube video about?





Oh wow you're right:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=132896

"We've already gone through several NPD threads for the November [2006] data, but the original thread had to be removed and NPD has been generous enough to provide GAF with info directly. Here we go, this time legitimately:" - EviLore


I assume that GAF is much more popular in 2014 than it was in 2006, so if some leaker were to attempt the same kinds of MASSIVE leaks people used to make...NPD would get very upset very quickly.

 

[AniHawk]

Ah so that's why there was nothing prior to 2007. Thought the archives were strangely empty

there were a lot of running-ltds that were gotten rid of as a result. that part was one of the worst aspects. i used to do a running total of sega stuff. it's not archived but it still exists

 

[donny2112]

What was the YouTube video about?

It was talking about the sales showdown of Wii/PS3 and 360's fall games like Gears. All while trumpeting it as NPD data. The video was well-made but poorly chosen.

Edit:
Here's a thread discussing the video at the time.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=128218

 

[AniHawk]

What was the YouTube video about?

i can't find it, but it was a 'trailer' for november 2006 npd results because the ps3 and wii were launching and it was going to be the first huge month in years. it was done in an over-the-top/'epic' style.

 

[bishopcruz]

there were a lot of running-ltds that were gotten rid of as a result. that part was one of the worst aspects. i used to do a running total of sega stuff. it's not archived but it still exists

I noticed there were no Shenmue II numbers there, did it not sell at all?

 

[AniHawk]

I noticed there were no Shenmue II numbers there, did it not sell at all?

this was actually an often-asked question (i actually forgot that it was an often-asked question). microsoft published shenmue ii, so it didn't appear on the list.

shenmue ii accumulated around 180k in sales. i apparently referenced another running ltd in a slightly older thread

 

[SwiftDeath]

there were a lot of running-ltds that were gotten rid of as a result. that part was one of the worst aspects. i used to do a running total of sega stuff. it's not archived but it still exists

Cool that's a interesting amount of data. No wonder NPD wanted to quash it.

I wonder if it would be worth it to try and recreate the NPD threads prior to 2007 but only with the HW numbers and top 10 software etc. considering the information still exists out in the wild.

 

[Aquamarine]

I noticed there were no Shenmue II numbers there, did it not sell at all?

On the Xbox it sold like 27K in its first month, and less than 200K in total.

So...yes, it didn't sell very well at all...less than half of Shenmue's performance on the original Dreamcast.

 

[AniHawk]

On the Xbox it sold like 27K in its first month, and less than 200K in total.

So...yes, it didn't sell very well at all...less than half of Shenmue's performance on the original Dreamcast.

yep, 460k for shenmue, 180kish for shenmue ii. microsoft had a big hand in killing the franchise.

 

[Hoho for breakfast]

Someone called bunkum used to post some big ass lists of NPD data. Software sales and such. I saw some earlier while looking up old NPD numbers.

 

[donny2112]

Someone called bunkum used to post some big ... lists of NPD data.

Loved. Wanted. Needed.

Edit:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=143419

Man, he was great.

 

[Aquamarine]

Someone called bunkum used to post some big ass lists of NPD data. Software sales and such. I saw some earlier while looking up old NPD numbers.

Yeah I saw that too...he was apparently a big-time NPD leaker (hundreds of sales figures + revenue figures all at once) but got shut down and stopped posting altogether around early 2007.

Loved. Wanted. Needed.

Edit:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=143419

Man, he was great.

Haha.

bunkum
Loved. Wanted. Needed.
Join Date: 06-10-2004
Total Posts: 302 (0.09 posts per day)
Last Activity: 05-09-2008 04:27 PM

Looks like he had a bunch of posts that got deleted.

 

[bishopcruz]

yep, 460k for shenmue, 180kish for shenmue ii. microsoft had a big hand in killing the franchise.

On the Xbox it sold like 27K in its first month, and less than 200K in total.

So...yes, it didn't sell very well at all...less than half of Shenmue's performance on the original Dreamcast.

Yeah, makes me sad. I bought the damn thing back in the day, but ouch.

Since we are talking old LTDs, did the JSRF numbers count bundles?

Oh, and have we ever gotten anything on Ys: Memories of Celceta? I hope that one did well, but considering how awful Vita sales have been in the US I am scared for that series.

 

[donny2112]

Since we are talking old LTDs, did the JSRF numbers count bundles?

Old NPD tracked the same as current NPD (to subscribers). Bundles from the manufacturer are listed separately. Retailer bundles where they just gave you the game with the system are part of the software numbers, though.

 

[airmangataosenai]

One interesting footnote about the Wii U/ Dreamcast chart:

At month 19 (March 2000 for Dreamcast and May 2014 for Wii U) of that comparison we finally reach the point where the DC was discontinued, with the Wii U now almost certain to be tracking significantly behind. Of course it is the month where Mario Kart launches so there is still a glimmer of hope there, but it has a lot of ground to make up.

Edit: 2001, not 2000.

 

[donny2112]

One interesting footnote about the Wii U/ Dreamcast chart:

At month 19 (March 2000 for Dreamcast and May 2014 for Wii U) of that comparison we finally reach the point where the DC was discontinued, with the Wii U now almost certain to be tracking significantly behind.

Dreamcast wasn't discontinued because of its sales, though. The company itself was in very poor shape. On the plus side, that did lead to $50 Dreamcasts at Best Buy that following Black Friday!

 

[AniHawk]

Yeah I saw that too...he was apparently a big-time NPD leaker (hundreds of sales figures + revenue figures all at once) but got shut down and stopped posting altogether around early 2007.

there's a few threads he made that escaped the public executions. it's a little glimpse into how things used to look. and hey everyone- teenage anihawk!

 

[donny2112]

Looks like he had a bunch of posts that got deleted.

But they can't delete them from our hearts...

 

[Aquamarine]

Old NPD tracked the same as current NPD (to subscribers). Bundles from the manufacturer are listed separately. Retailer bundles where they just gave you the game with the system are part of the software numbers, though.

Correct. For example, there are four listings for Konami's Karaoke Revolution for Xbox:

Karaoke Rev W/Mic Karaoke KONAMI OF AMERICA
Karaoke Revolution Karaoke KONAMI OF AMERICA
Karaoke Revolution Party Karaoke KONAMI OF AMERICA
Karaoke Revoution Party Bdl Karaoke KONAMI OF AMERICA


And various listings for Xbox hardware:

XBX FALL 2003 BUNDLE XBX Console
XBX GIFT SET 2003 XBX Console
XBX HOLIDAY 04 BUNDLE XBX Console
XBX HOLIDAY BUNDLE XBX Console
XBX LIVE HOLIDAY BUNDLE XBX Console
XBX SPECIAL ED HALO BNDLE XBX Console
XBX XBOX REFURBISHED XBX Console
XBX XBOX SYSTEM XBX Console

 

[SwiftDeath]

Dreamcast wasn't discontinued because of its sales, though. The company itself was in very poor shape. On the plus side, that did lead to $50 Dreamcasts at Best Buy that following Black Friday!

Ah but what about the mail-in rebate Dreamcasts that could be had for free?

Spoiler

Pretty sure that was a thing

there's a few threads he made that escaped the public executions. it's a little glimpse into how things used to look. and hey everyone- teenage anihawk!

There was a 2004?

 

[Aquamarine]

there's a few threads he made that escaped the public executions. it's a little glimpse into how things used to look. and hey everyone- teenage anihawk!

Holy shit that's a lot of leaked data. No wonder NPD forced GAF to crack down on it hard.

 

[donny2112]

There was a 2004?

I don't even...

.

Holy s*** that's a lot of leaked data. No wonder NPD forced GAF to crack down on it hard.

That's why it was the Golden Age. Compiling it was a labor of love...

 

[bishopcruz]

Holy shit that's a lot of leaked data. No wonder NPD forced GAF to crack down on it hard.

It was a simpler time.

 

[airmangataosenai]

Holy shit that's a lot of leaked data. No wonder NPD forced GAF to crack down on it hard.

I remember lurking here back in the day and this was tame, lol.


I remember posts leaking hundreds of games with exact sales/revenue information popping up during the holidays back when I lurked here and on GameFAQs circa 2003-2004.

 

[AniHawk]

It was a simpler time.

yep. that was the entire npd thread and it didn't get 100 posts and it had all the data you could ask for.

10 years later there's no data and the thread stretches on for over 3000 posts.

hell, back then a media create thread might not even hit 50 posts in a given week. sales age was a lot smaller back then. now i don't recognize pretty much anyone. all of my friends are dead.