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NPD Sales Results for April 2015 [Up1: Xbox One #1]

SenjutsuSage

SenjutsuSage

Halo TV Series Promoter - Live from: Reach
Chobel said:
So Sony should drop the price just to win Holiday in US? Because that was argument being presented there.



LOL, the irony. JetBlackPanda was saying Sony shouldn't drop the price just because MS won 3 months, suddenly now, he's saying MS win is insignificant.
Click to expand...

I wasn't talking about JetBlackPanda's post, I was talking about your own, which totally misrepresents what I said.

But to focus on his post, he did both of the things you just mentioned. He is both making the argument that just because MS won a few months that it isn't a reason for Sony to all of a sudden panic and drop the price. That's true, and I actually agree with that part of his post. He also, however. did make the clear attempt to make Microsoft's wins look like they were insignificant, which I believe they most certainly are not.

You can't acknowledge one part of his post, yet ignore the other part like it didn't happen.

In the end both systems are doing really well, and I think that's good for everyone.
 
J

John Harker

Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
StevieP said:
Sometimes that's a good thing ;)
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Oh I know, I generally prefer it that way.
I like to live below radars.

Though when I try and explain how or why or give insigh or rationale for something or another like the hardware example and get ignored so people can still argue with each other gets a little annoying :)
 
Z

ZhugeEX

Banned
John Harker said:
People have been missing a lot lately it seems, I've even dropped some spoilers that never got eyes ::shrug::

I'm just blowing by in the wind
Click to expand...

I always like your posts :) They provide good bits of info to go on.

John Harker said:
Oh I know, I generally prefer it that way.

Though when I try and explain how or why or give insigh or rationale for something or another like the hardware example and get ignored so people can still argue with each other gets a little annoying :)
Click to expand...

Yeh that annoys me.

Thankfully GAF has higher quality posters than others. Don't want to mention names but trying to have a sales discussion on some forums is the most infuriating thing.
 
Papacheeks

Papacheeks

Banned
MrNyarlathotep said:
I think you're attributing more to the statements than is there - I think physical retail is inevitably going to die, but its what NPD threads measure, and for - at least - the foreseeable future of the rest of this console generation, NPD threads will remain an indicator of industry health.
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I don't think it's going to die per-say , just transform in-terms of what you do on a store level to acquire your game.

We are slowly ramping up production of titles. Once most of all the big publishers release their games from established franchises, then we will start to see more incline of more games, and in a myriad of different forms.

Bethesda has released one game so far, or game series should I say because of their MMO.

Come this E3 we will see Dishonored 2, Doom 4, Fallout 4.

Same goes for square.

MrNyarlathotep said:
I'm certainly more bearish on the console industry than CosmicQueso is, but I am definitively not of the belief that AAA console retail is "all that matters".
Having said that however, diminished retail presence doesn't particularly help consoles as mass market devices.
Click to expand...

In that chart if we were to look at the beginning years of last gen I wonder if the same things were happening, in terms of amount of retail releases.
They went though harder times trying to figure out HD and complexities of the new consoles. I don't remember a crap load of big giant games being released 2005,2006. It wasn't really till 2007 that things started to pick up.

Same goes for now, only difference we have easier architecture so we can have Indie games, and ported PC titles like shadow warrior and the likes to help pad out the roster. Maybe not all go retail. But we didn't have that option last gen in the beginning, so either you made a game and it was retail or you didn't. Which is why we saw the close of so many studios.

That graph to me shows digital's insurgance, and the generation slowly winding down. A good example is look at the Wii and Xbox360's new IP output.
XBOX had less and less in terms of releases, I could argue that Sony slowly was winding down as well.
 
AgentP

AgentP

Thinks mods influence posters politics. Promoted to QAnon Editor.
NoMoChokeSJ said:
I'm sure that the PS4 will probably win in May. My point is that the demand for the XB1 must be going up some, since people are actually buying them. There were a lot of people against purchasing the console regardless of price a year ago.
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Why do you think demand is up? Weekly sales numbers for April and March are about the same. The only thing we know from the numbers is PS4 is down comparing March (Bloodborne and lots of bundle deals) to April (Batman bundles pushing sales to June). There is no evidence of increase XB1 demand.
 
G

Game Guru

Member
MrNyarlathotep said:
It's sort of amusing to me to see people now talking like AAAs self-implosion is a real possibility, but who are these new companies stepping up?
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Both Deep Silver, founded in 2002, and Telltale Games, founded in 2004, were originally just no-name PC developers who happened to have hit it big and now publish retail console games. Nordic Games, founded in 2009, went on to pretty much absorb the properties of THQ that Deep Silver and Sega didn't want and also publishes retail console games. Devolver Digital, founded in 2009, is a big enough digital publisher that them going exclusively PS4 in terms of consoles was treated like a big thing, and while digital game sales are beyond the scope of NPD, Devolver Digital does publish games for consoles.

Those are four relatively recent players I can think of off the top of my head who now publish console games. Also, I think the AAAs, or well, the ones that were going to implode has for the most part done so. Neither Activision, EA, nor Ubisoft are going to implode since they are successful in catering to the AAA market. Outside of Crytek, it is hard for me to think of any game company in or formerly in the console space on the path to implosion that isn't Japanese. And let's face facts, Japan is kind of its own thing in the industry given that is, quite literally, the only real market left for dedicated handhelds and the only one showing complete disinterest in console gaming. The 3DS is in the position in Japan that PS4 is in in the rest of the world. Dedicated handhelds cater to the specific regional desires of Japan for gaming like the Xbox One caters to the specific regional desires of America for gaming.

A bit off topic though important to understand how digital might help to expand the retail presence for games, but I have seen PSN, Xbox Live, and Steam Gift Cards at my local gas station and I live in America. I would not be surprised if in the future, every retail establishment sells PSN, Xbox Live, and Steam Gift Cards alongside iTunes, Google Play, and Amazon Gift Cards including grocery stores, gas stations, and pharmacies. People will buy these cards and then buy the games they want on the console they want.
 
Chobel

Chobel

Member
SenjutsuSage said:
I wasn't talking about JetBlackPanda's post, I was talking about your own, which totally misrepresents what I said.

But to focus on his post, he did both of the things you just mentioned. He is both making the argument that just because MS won a few months that it isn't a reason for Sony to all of a sudden panic and drop the price. That's true, and I actually agree with that part of his post. He also, however. did make the clear attempt to make Microsoft's wins look like they were insignificant, which I believe they most certainly are not.

You can't acknowledge one part of his post, yet ignore the other part like it didn't happen.

In the end both systems are doing really well, and I think that's good for everyone.
Click to expand...

Sure, let's ignore the context of his comment, which is people overreacting and demanding Sony to drop the price. These wins are not significant enough for Sony to start cutting prices.
 
A

Az987

all good things
There were a few buy an Xbox One get a $50 gift card promos going on. Best Buy sent out a coupon to a lot of people (which is still good) and then Target had it for everyone IIRC the week after. Think that helped Microsoft out a lot?
 
Papacheeks

Papacheeks

Banned
Game Guru said:
Both Deep Silver, founded in 2002, and Telltale Games, founded in 2004, were originally just no-name PC developers who happened to have hit it big and now publish retail console games. Nordic Games, founded in 2009, went on to pretty much absorb the properties of THQ that Deep Silver and Sega didn't want and also publishes retail console games. Devolver Digital, founded in 2009, is a big enough digital publisher that them going exclusively PS4 in terms of consoles was treated like a big thing, and while digital game sales are beyond the scope of NPD, Devolver Digital does publish games for consoles.

Those are four relatively recent players I can think of off the top of my head who now publish console games. Also, I think the AAAs, or well, the ones that were going to implode has for the most part done so. Neither Activision, EA, nor Ubisoft are going to implode since they are successful in catering to the AAA market. Outside of Crytek, it is hard for me to think of any game company in or formerly in the console space on the path to implosion that isn't Japanese. And let's face facts, Japan is kind of its own thing in the industry given that is, quite literally, the only real market left for dedicated handhelds and the only one showing complete disinterest in console gaming. The 3DS is in the position in Japan that PS4 is in in the rest of the world. Dedicated handhelds cater to the specific regional desires of Japan for gaming like the Xbox One caters to the specific regional desires of America for gaming.

A bit off topic though important to understand how digital might help to expand the retail presence for games, but I have seen PSN, Xbox Live, and Steam Gift Cards at my local gas station and I live in America. I would not be surprised if in the future, every retail establishment sells PSN, Xbox Live, and Steam Gift Cards alongside iTunes, Google Play, and Amazon Gift Cards including grocery stores, gas stations, and pharmacies. People will buy these cards and then buy the games they want on the console they want.
Click to expand...

You forgot TRipwire which I think produces and publishes it's own games. They have in the last couple years grown outside of PC and now are getting into console.

Only a matter of time when we get small publishing houses for Indie titles like Devolver become console/ retail publishers for Physical released games.
 
F

Fat4all

Banned
Papacheeks said:
You forgot TRipwire which I think produces and publishes it's own games. They have in the last couple years grown outside of PC and now are getting into console.

Only a matter of time when we get small publishing houses for Indie titles like Devolver become console/ retail publishers for Physical released games.
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I love that CD Projekt started out as a group of game pirates that would do Polish translations and localization for games that overlooked their country as gamers. Eventually they got so good as programing and localizing that they decided to start making their own games.

Their origins are also what led to them starting GoG and pushing heavily against DRM.
 
Papacheeks

Papacheeks

Banned
Fat4all said:
I love that CD Projekt started out as a group of game pirates that would do Polish translations and localization for games that overlooked their country as gamers. Eventually they got so good as programing and localizing that they decided to start making their own games.

Their origins are also what led to them starting GoG and pushing heavily against DRM.
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Yea, and the 4A GAMES they started small, and now are a household name.
 
Square2015

Square2015

Member
Dat WiiU nose dive...
8RVZLKJ.png


HIstorical sales report coming later.
 
Castef

Castef

Banned
Az987 said:
There were a few buy an Xbox One get a $50 gift card promos going on. Best Buy sent out a coupon to a lot of people (which is still good) and then Target had it for everyone IIRC the week after. Think that helped Microsoft out a lot?
Click to expand...

Fact is: you don't choose a console because you get 50$ back in a gift card if you are NOT interested in it. Demand for the Xbox One exists, regardless of offers.
 
K

kyser73

Member
Papacheeks said:
You forgot TRipwire which I think produces and publishes it's own games. They have in the last couple years grown outside of PC and now are getting into console.

Only a matter of time when we get small publishing houses for Indie titles like Devolver become console/ retail publishers for Physical released games.
Click to expand...

Why would they take that risk? Physical publishing carries way more business risk than digital because of the need to manufacture & ship actual things. Sure there's still the production risk itself, but digital distribution removes both placement, manufacturing cost & sigificantly reduces distribution.

And congrats to MS on an +8% sales win on the back of a superb trade-in offer & cross promotion of the platform's biggest IP. Ten more months like that & the gap will be down to 550k again.
 
Papacheeks

Papacheeks

Banned
kyser73 said:
Why would they take that risk? Physical publishing carries way more business risk than digital because of the need to manufacture & ship actual things. Sure there's still the production risk itself, but digital distribution removes both placement, manufacturing cost & sigificantly reduces distribution.
Click to expand...

Which is why there is such a thing as a limited physical release. Only print a certain amount. Book deals do it that way. They will do digital kindle/amazon deal with a limited physical release.

And like I said if the game becomes popular enough starting digital for your initial sales on steam then making an announcement for console, and limited physical release. There's not as much risk.
Stick it to the man, Shadow Warrior, The walking dead, Wolf among us, Wolfenstein:The old blood(EU release), Payday 2, Divinity:Original Sin. All have or getting physical release after being primarily digital.

Going physical after initial launch of a game is a smart way of doing business. You make most of your money back in pure profit from digital, then do a physical with limited print.
And to think Studios who start out small don't get bigger and make larger projects that will be on consoles won't have a physical release is absurd.
 
V

Vallen Valiant

Banned
ZhugeEX said:
I agree. I mean the only reason that Sony should drop the price was if the PS4 had no gamez or something......
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I am in the "price drop this year" camp.

No, I am not suggesting that Sony should panic. Losing the NPD isn't a big deal for Sony, I am not saying Sony need to "respond" as such.

However a price drop is always meant to happen in a console's life. Sony doesn't need to be worried or frightened in order to justify a price drop. I don't see why Sony need to reserve $299 for emergencies; they could just set a sales performance benchmark that they would use to trigger a planned price change.

I guess what I am saying, is that Sony might drop the price in response to losing the NPD, but not because they were forced to. Losing the NPD, in my view, is merely one new reason to trigger a price drop, and this doesn't imply Sony need to be stressed by it in any way.
 
J

Javin98

Banned
ZhugeEX said:
That's likely but very hard to say exactly tbh. With 360 and original Xbox we have the WW numbers. With Xbox One we don't, and I don't really what to compare shipped with sold through as that skews things. Hence why I'm saying "much more than half" to indicate that once again the ratio is skewed where USA is by far the biggest market for Xbox and is more than all other markets combined.

In regards to PS2. Here is a graph of PS2 Vs PS4 shipments. Please note that the following post looks at worldwide shipments unless otherwise explicitly stated.

PS21_zps08ydrgmp.jpg


Now lets take a look at why the PS4 is ahead.

PlayStation 2 launched in Japan first on March 4th 2000, on its first day alone more than 600,000 were sold at retail and 380,000 through online pre orders. The PlayStation 2 had issues with chip production in 2000 and demand for PS2 was high but Sony were unable to fully cater, even on day 1 they could only actually ship 720,000 of those 980,000 orders.

In Japan sales were high over 2000 and everything that was being shipped was being sold. And here is the key, the first 7 months of shipments just went to one country, Japan. Those first 7 months on the graph account for 3.5 million units that were shipped in Japan only.

The production issues hit the western launch as well with Sony able to only ship 500,000 units to the USA in October, half what they actually wanted to ship to meet demand. Overall Sony were just able to ship 6.40m units in 2000 which was a lot less then where they wanted to be. In fact If I remember correctly they planned to ship at least 1m more worldwide but were unable to. As of the end of 2000, which is month 10 on the graph, the PlayStation 2 had shipped 3.94m units in Japan/Asia and 2.46m units in North America and European countries.

In 2001 (Month 11 through Month 22), Sony were able to solve production issues and get back to selling as they planned with a total of 18.6 million units shipped worldwide taking the cumulative total to 25 million as of the end of 2001 (month 22).

Now lets look at PS4. Unlike the PlayStation 2, Sony's fourth console launched in North America and Europe first, in fact the PlayStation 4 launched in a total of 53 countries and regions during its first two months and expanded to 123 countries by month 15.

So this is a major factor why the PlayStation 4 outsold the PlayStation 2 for the first 7 months easily, because the PS2 was only available in Japan where as the PS4 was in more than 53 countries during the first 2 months and by the 7th month had launched in 72 countries and regions. So whilst Japan is big for gaming, a console launching in 72 regions in 7 months (inc NA+EU) is going to see more sales than a console that launched in 1 country for 7 months.

The PlayStation 4 saw over 1 million shipments in North America and over 700,000 in Europe during the first 24 hours on sale in those territories. Easily surpassing the PS2 launch and solidifying the PS4's early lead in the generation 8 set of consoles. After just two months the PS4 had sold in 4.5 million units in these 53 countries compared to the PS2 which had just sold under 2 million in Japan at the same time aligned.

The PlayStation 4 sales were high because, as mentioned above, the console launched in more territories, it was at a compelling price point and because it was coming off a very long generation where gamers were ready for a next generation console, even the Xbox One had a massive launch because of this final reason.

In 2014 (month 3 through 14), the PlayStation 4 saw continued demand and sold in an additional 15.4 million units. This is slightly less compared to PlayStation 2's 18.6 million units in 2001 (month 11 through 22). The reason for this is because it was still early days for the PS4, Japan did not contribute as much (only 1.1m in 2014 vs 4.3m in 2001) and because the PS4 had competition from the Xbox One where as the PlayStation 2 only had competition in the latter half of 2001.

The PlayStation 4 as of month 14 had sold 19.9m units worldwide where as the PlayStation 2 had only sold ~12m worldwide. Again the 7 months of just Japan only sales really comes in to play here.

The PlayStation 4 is currently at 22.3m units worldwide after 17 months where as the PlayStation 2 was at ~16.5m at this current time when you align launches.

This is a stupid thing to do but If for example you just look at worldwide sales outside of Asia (so 17 months of PS2 and PS4 sales outside of Asia), The PlayStation 4 would be less than 21m and the PlayStation 2 would be over 19m. So very close, and this again shows the impact of those 7 months of Japan exclusive sales and why PS4 is, when aligned, comfortably ahead of the PS2.

However the PS2 goes on to sell gang-busters in 2002 and 2003 and was the fastest console of its time to reach 50 million. Right now I expect the PS4 to fail to break that record and reach 50m just after the PS2. Main reason being competition from Xbox and lack of sales in Japan to boost overall numbers, sure the numbers will come from emerging territories but 20m+ sales in Japan alone for PS2 really helped PS2 get to where it is today.

Sorry for any mistakes in this post.
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Thank you very much, Zhuge. This was a very informative post. So currently the PS4 is falling behind the PS2 and Wii in sales, but being the third fastest selling console is still quite an accomplishment. I still think the PS4 will eventually beat the Wii and reach ~120 million sold through, though. But looking at these graphs, Sony really needs to drop the price to $299 this holiday season to increase the momentum not only in the US, but worldwide.
 
The Mad Draklor

The Mad Draklor

Member
Chobel said:
Sure, let's ignore the context of his comment, which is people overreacting and demanding Sony to drop the price. These wins are not significant enough for Sony to start cutting prices.
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I agree. Even if the XB1 wins May, as well, it will be by a minuscule amount. The PS4 will win June by a significant margin and have a boosted baseline for the rest of the summer thanks to Arkham Knight.
 
J

Javin98

Banned
5Twist said:
I agree. Even if the XB1 wins May, as well, it will be by a minuscule amount. The PS4 will win June by a significant margin and have a boosted baseline for the rest of the summer thanks to Arkham Knight.
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Looking at Amazon's hourly charts, I think the PS4 may take May by a slight margin. But who knows the XB1 may pull off a surprising win again.

Disclaimer: I know the hourly charts isn't an accurate way to tell who comes out on top, but it does show us demand of the consoles. And before anyone says this, Amazon technically didn't fail us last month.
 
J

jnWake

Member
John Harker said:
It's selling slightly more per month but I dint it'll catch it... Though DK will pass 500k in a couple weeks!
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I'm glad DK didn't completely stop selling (I mean, it's probably selling like 8k per month but still...) I hope it manages to reach at least 1 million WW so that the franchise doesn't get another huge break.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
5Twist said:
I agree. Even if the XB1 wins May, as well, it will be by a minuscule amount. The PS4 will win June by a significant margin and have a boosted baseline for the rest of the summer thanks to Arkham Knight.
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If there is no price drop or anything like it in June, I'd bet that it'll be the only month the PS4 wins until September.

The Batman bundle will be limited and will have the most impact in June. After that it'll still be $399, and I think in the summer months that will be a detriment to the PS4.

John said that the MCC bundle is up big MoM, and that might be because of not only the deals, but also that Halo 5 marketing is already starting with the #HUNTtheTRUTH social media event and the Locke and Chief trailers. Halo marketing so early plus being $50 cheaper was probably the factor for the Xbox One being ahead this month, and will possibly be the factor for May, and maybe even July and August.

Now then, that's just what I think, but until MGSV, I don't see the PS4 selling more than the Xbox One after Batman.
 
The Mad Draklor

The Mad Draklor

Member
Javin98 said:
Looking at Amazon's hourly charts, I think the PS4 may take May by a slight margin. But who knows the XB1 may pull off a surprising win again.

Disclaimer: I know the hourly charts isn't an accurate way to tell who comes out on top, but it does show us demand of the consoles. And before anyone says this, Amazon technically didn't fail us last month.
Click to expand...

At least the PS4 has an exclusive/PS exclusive this month which is FFX|X-2 HD when it didn't have any last month.

Welfare said:
If there is no price drop or anything like it in June, I'd bet that it'll be the only month the PS4 wins until September.

The Batman bundle will be limited and will have the most impact in June. After that it'll still be $399, and I think in the summer months that will be a detriment to the PS4.
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Fair enough, though there are two Batman bundles: the limited edition and the standard edition. It also largely depends on the availability of the limited edition bundle. However, even if the limited edition is sold out, there is still the standard bundle for consumers to purchase. The PS4 will also be getting Until Dawn, GOW III Remastered, and Tearaway Unfolded over the summer. While they won't move the needle that much, even a 1 week boost may be good enough for the PS4 to win each summer month.
 
A

airmangataosenai

Member
The best part about NPD threads like this are reading the open and needless hostility by overly involved super fans accusing anyone not actively dismissive of Microsoft as somehow not understanding the market. Everyone knows Microsoft has the overall market, that doesn't mean that the fight in the US is meaningless. Far from it, if Microsoft could take the position back from Sony it would be a major coup for them,

No one is ignoring that they've lost ground generation to generation, but their recovery from their early errors has been impressive, even more so than what Sony managed with the PS3. When you look at the disaster of the Wii U it really illustrates what happens when a company completely shits the bed and just ignores the problems before they ship to market. Microsoft made mistakes and corrected ship before release therefore mitigating a lot of the damage. Had they shipped the One with their original vision it likely would have been another U. I still like Sony more but the situation on this forum is fucking ridiculous.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
5Twist said:
Fair enough, though there are two Batman bundles: the limited edition and the standard edition. It also largely depends on the availability of the limited edition bundle. However, even if the limited edition is sold out, there is still the standard bundle for consumers to purchase. The PS4 will also be getting Until Dawn, GOW III Remastered, and Tearaway Unfolded over the summer. While they won't move the needle that much, even a 1 week boost may be good enough for the PS4 to win each summer month.
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I only knew of the limited Batman bundle. Did not know there was standard one.

However, at the point after the limited bundle is gone, it'll be Batman PS4 at $399 vs Halo MCC Xbox One at $349 + Halo 5 marketing in the works, and even then will the Batman bundle be resupplied along with the LoU bundle or will it be limited as well?

I think MS could release one or 2 games during July and August, and August will probably feature another Madden bundle, so the smaller releases would "counteract" each other.
 
G

Game Guru

Member
kyser73 said:
Why would they take that risk? Physical publishing carries way more business risk than digital because of the need to manufacture & ship actual things. Sure there's still the production risk itself, but digital distribution removes both placement, manufacturing cost & sigificantly reduces distribution.

And congrats to MS on an +8% sales win on the back of a superb trade-in offer & cross promotion of the platform's biggest IP. Ten more months like that & the gap will be down to 550k again.
Click to expand...

Digital distribution does not have as much reach in the mass market as a physical release does except in regards to mobile, which has no physical option, and PC, where the physical option is pretty much the same as the digital option in that it is pretty much a Steam Key in most cases. In addition, digital storefronts generally end up getting too crowded with games as we have seen from Steam and mobile. By having a retail release in a smaller market of retail releases, a game will be much more noticeable since it will compete with less competition at retail. In either circumstance, a game will still be competing with Call of Duty, Madden, FIFA, and Assassin's Creed, but being at retail in the current environment eliminates the competition that is stuck in the digital realm. There are going to be people out there who just discover games like Mighty No. 9 or Bloodstained and just pick them up while they would never check what digital games are out on PSN or Xbox Live. It also doesn't hurt that the biggest and most dedicated fans of any sort of media will spend good money on physical extras and, at that point, a company may as well include a physical game with the package, and if you are already doing that, said company may as well just release a standard version.
 
K

kyser73

Member
FullmetalPain said:
Not surprised about Bloodborne. It was far too short to have any longevity
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4th placed in individual SKUs was mentioned earlier in the thread. Don't forget the NPD chart is all formats placed.

Game Guru & Papacheeks - will respond but my nascent reply involves more research than I'm prepared to do on a phone.
 
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