Team Top Hat
Banned
I know I posted this in the Rare thread, but what were the numbers for Kinect Sports Rivals?
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NPD Sales Results for April 2014 [Up2: XB1/360 hardware, PS4 #1/XB1 #2 best selling]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
But there's no denying the Wii had a very successful launch; the relative performance of the Gamecube just wasn't much of a factor. So ultimately Nintendo's Wii U followup will be judged on its own merits (or lack thereof). What direction they choose to go with it is anybody's guess.
It'll need Nintendo's 1st party software to sell it, though. If it's successful enough, 3rd parties will support it out of necessity. If not, they won't.
theprodigy
Member
actually, no, you don't even need to go that far, I'll say what everyone else is already thinking anyway:
The hardcore fans that picked up the system within the first year, and who claim they'd abandon the next Nintendo console if the Wii U got discontinued early, are lying, they'll come back for the next one no matter what.
now with this being said, the earliest possible (somewhat realistic) release date for Wii U's successor is holiday 2016, and that's not happening, so lol
NeonZ
Member
It's not like the Wii U is some big love letter to Nintendo fans either though. I guess to NSMB hardcore fans? That's pretty much the only group that's has really been serviced by the console so far, with a launch game, DLC expansion, and the 3d Land/World series heavily influenced by NSMB rather than previous 3d titles.
Zelda has an HD rerelease and the promise of future games, but only footage or details at all about a spin off, Pikmin had a long awaited sequel, but it was never a big franchise in the first place. Every other long running franchise doesn't even have Wii U entries yet.
Killing_Joke
Member
I know Nintendo going 3rd party has been the big loljoke for years. But i really don't see the harm. If all they can ever offer is first party games i don't see how they can have a successful hardware business (outside of handhelds) much longer.
Yes, i know they don't HAVE to go 3rd party. My point is why not? Do they want to continue to fail until they either luck out like the Wii or start beefing up the HW specs/OS to be more competitive? I don't know i guess we'll see in a couple of years.
Yes, i know they don't HAVE to go 3rd party. My point is why not? Do they want to continue to fail until they either luck out like the Wii or start beefing up the HW specs/OS to be more competitive? I don't know i guess we'll see in a couple of years.
Apophis2036
Banned
WiiU sold 70k in March NPD with no major releases. I think 150k is the lowest MK8 will bump hardware sales to for May's NPD because of the bundle pre orders and the hardware sales heavy MK8 advertising will push for launch.
If Nintendo don't shift 450k WiiU consoles over May / June / July NPD's combined they should give very serious thought to wasting further resources on software development for the console.
"Because Sega"
Forgetting the fact that Sega were forced while Nintendo can take their time and transition and have better IPs. HW making money as an argument doesn't make sense in a world where the 3DS and WiiU have to be sold at a loss.
This is still pretty much my view on it. Personally, I wish they would just go 3rd party. They won't go 3rd party because they want to also make money on overpriced, underpowered hardware. Clearly, that dream is dead unless they make some great moves in the next year or two.
prag16
Banned
450k is a lot to ask. I don't see that as being likely. 300k is a more reasonable goal. But that's not necessarily a lock either.
Some Nobody
Junior Member
Across three months? They should be able to manage that. Not saying they'll do it no problem, but this is the least they should be able to do.
Thanks all.
It's too bad Nintendo doesn't have any money to spend on third party relations.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
List of Wii U retail games released in the first five months of 2014 in the USA:
That is the grand total of five months of retail releases.
You forgot the Lego Movie Videogame btw. That's actually the one selling better on Wii U than PS4 & XB1.
Out of curiosity does anyone have LTD #s for Lego City Undercover, Marvel, Movie & Hobbit for Wii U? Just curious since WB seems happy enough to keep releasing these on Wii U. I know LCU did pretty well (was at 240K at the end of last year, aka better than Pikmin 3)
SwiftDeath
Member
Hmm isn't that the bottom left game in Aqua's post?
Look at one of the 9 boxes again.
In terms of hardcore titles...we could potentially see:
1) No more Arkham games
2) No more Call of Duty games
3) No more Assassin's Creed games
...as a very real reality for Nintendo hardcore retail support this holiday season.
But it's not just the hardcore tentpole titles that have fallen off a cliff. The Wii U third-party retail environment is...very small at the moment.
List of Wii U retail games released in the first five months of 2014 in the USA:
That is the grand total of five months of retail releases.
Activision with shovelware, Nintendo with core games, and Warner Bros. with LEGO. That's it.
Compare this with five months of GameCube releases at its equivalent year in the USA retail market:
LOL snip
I know the retail market has changed significantly since 2003. But it serves to highlight just how far Nintendo has fallen / how barren the current Wii U retail market is. Nintendo is lucky they have the eShop and all of those indies signed on board, otherwise the sheer lack of retail content for Wii U alone would be quite frightening.
This fucking post. Nintendo, what are you doing.
I do wonder just how much of an impact Mario Kart will have on Wii U numbers in May, considering it'll be out for only 2 days. Maybe the Wii U will look a bit better in June?
Also, did anyone have software numbers for the Kinect Sports Rivals bomba?
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
This is my thinking as well. As a company, they are good at one thing: making amazing games. Build your business around that. In theory, it's so easy.
But in reality there are many obstacles: strategic, practical, and emotional. You don't get to control your destiny in the same way when you're just a developer. They would have to go through a painful transition, becoming a much smaller company and probably cutting a lot of jobs.
And most importantly, as long as they're making hardware, they're just in a slump. They still have a shot at regaining the old Nintendo glory of the NES era and the Wii era. Going third-party means giving up that dream. It's saying "this is who we are now: just another developer".
The leadership of Nintendo has been working their whole lives either at Nintendo itself, or making Nintendo games. To be the ones who presided over -- or caused -- that downfall would be a failure of the worst kind.
That's why, no matter how big the losses get, they will only go third-party as a last resort.
prag16
Banned
I don't think Wii U has topped 100k at all other than November/December in both 2012 and 2013.
I hope you guys are right, I hope it blasts through half a million for that three month period. But it may be wise to temper expectations a bit.
Bullcrap. Wii U has the best 3D Mario game, the best 2D Mario game, the best Donkey Kong game, the best Pikmin game and it looks to have the best Mario Kart game. It's a love letter to everyone who loves Nintendo's games because they've never played this good, looked this good or sounded this good. Don't talk rubbish about NSMB or whatever. None of these games are inspired by NSMB. Just vitriol.
GremlinFool
Member
I genuinely hope you don't believe the bolded.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
Sorry, I have to agree with the original poster. If you aren't a fan of Nintendo's platformers or their party games, you basically have Pikmin 3 as your only somewhat known Nintendo IP that has a new game on the Wii U. While it definitely sold worse than its predecessors so far, Pikmin 3 hasn't actually sold that badly compared to DKC for example. Pikmin 3 has sold about 230K here, whereas Pikmin 2 sold about 400K in the US. I could see it climbing to 250-300K over time, which is relatively good considering the game's on the Wii U.
@prag, Yes the Wii U hasn't sold more than 100K in the US except during Nov/December of 2012 & 2013. I think the closest was during the September pricecut of the Wii U at 90K or so. At least DKC's 80K in Feb and 70K in March gives me a little hope that MK8 could increase sales significantly and have staying power. We'll see though.
Has anyone else mentioned that if Nintendo drops the 3DS, the Japanese market for games on anything but mobile devices would practically be dead. 3DS is the only non-mobile platform with games that actually sells at a respectable level in Japan. Wii U and Vita are pretty dead worldwide, and while PS4 and XB1 are successful, their success is from everywhere but Japan. At this point, Nintendo handhelds dying off means an all-mobile gaming future for Japan is assured.
Aquamarine said:
Do you have a list for 2013? How about a list for PS4/Xbone for 2014?
This is the worst thing they can do. If a general market targeted console didn't sell to the general market they'd instantly go out of console business. The core audience provides a safety net that means even if a console has as many problems as the Wii U, it will be enough for the company to stay in business and not lose too much money, they might even turn a profit. The core audience is also the audience that is more likely to buy systems at launch when they are a higher price, without which it would be that much harder to get momentum to sell to the general market.
If they went third party they'd have to pay licensing fees instead of collecting them and also deal with increased developments costs. You'd find that some of their projects become unviable and they'd move towards consolidating to a few games a year. They wouldn't waste their time with projects like Pikmin, X or Hyrule Warriors. The existing third party publishers would suffer having to compete with Nintendo and there'd be more consolidation with some third parties going out of business even quicker. The whole thing would not be a pretty sight.
Aquamarine
Member
You guys are both close. Wii U sold 94.6K in September 2013. That was the closest it ever got to 100K outside of the holidays.
Yes I do. Can't get around to it this second, but I'll do it when I have some free time.
NoMoreTrolls
Banned
Apophis2036
Banned
Mario Kart is at this point Nintendo's biggest franchise and perhaps the title they possess that appeals to the largest spectrum of consumers. Asking for 150k console sales every month for three months from a title like that isn't at all unreasonable imo especially as they have said they will be heavily advertising it. The great reviews it had will help it a little aswell.
Has MK8 advertising begun in America yet ?, still not seen a single TV commercial in the UK and we are less than two weeks from launch.
Imperfected
Member
No offense, but you're living in a fantasy world if you believe this is still true.
Think about this: when you look at the losses Nintendo has been posting, you are looking at the absolute value of all their operations. The losses posted by the Wii-U are dramatically worse than they appear from looking at the company's total operating losses, because it's not just costing them the amount of money you see on paper, it's first managing to obliterate all the 3DS profits before it even starts to go negative. Selling the Wii-U to this supposed "safety net" is creating such a ridiculous black hole of profit that it completely negates the "money printer" that is Nintendo's handheld business and then manages to lose some more money on top of that.
Nintendo cannot and will not make another system thinking they can "squeak through" selling just to their ever-shrinking pool of brand loyalists; they will try to reach a broader market, because they of all people are well aware that there's no way they can carry on as hardware manufacturers if they don't.
Honestly, if they wanted stable but lower profits selling to only to loyal consumers, they'd just go third party. Their commitment to continue making hardware is the only sign you need that they're going to roll the dice again and try to reach wide market appeal. They wouldn't bother making another console if they believed it would only be bought by the people who bought the Wii-U.
prag16
Banned
I hope you're right, but I'll be keeping my expectations tempered for now. The NPD prediction thread for May will be exceedingly interesting.
The Wii U is only 1.5 years old. Losses are always higher at the front end of the cycle. Profits at the back end of the cycle will mitigate the losses made launching the console, remains to be seen by how much.
Obviously they are going to try and reach a broader market. They don't need to screw over their existing userbase to do that. What the brand loyalists allow Nintendo to do is take a bet that can end up paying $10B-$20B over a cycle with a risk of losing less than $1B over a cycle if things go completely wrong.
Apophis2036
Banned
It's a real shame that it's only going to get two days of recorded data for May. I genuinely think that after last months average PS4 numbers, WiiU could have beaten it for June had MK8 been released at the start of June.
Hopefully Nintendo can keep getting the price of manufacturing the console down and they are able to hit the magic $249 impulse buy price range in time for the Holiday season. A $249 MK8 bundle would do incredible business this Holiday esp if it's combined with Smash Bros and the NFC figure title.
Imperfected
Member
Profits improve as a cycle continues because the install base is larger, leading to more software being sold for the system and more third party titles being released on the system, generating more royalties as additional revenue.
The Wii-U is seeing fewer third party titles as time goes on, and is likely going to see a dramatic fall-off in first party software sales after MK8 and Smash Bros run their course. This situation isn't getting better. There's no pot of gold at the end of this rainbow. They aren't even managing to move enough units for economics of scale to kick in and bring their production costs down significantly; in fact, having to fight with retailers to maintain shelf space and accept returned shipments (especially in Europe) has arguably caused their retail loss on each unit sold to go up.
Again: this is not about saving the Wii-U, and it hasn't been for nearly an entire calendar year. That ship hasn't just sailed, it's sunk. The question now is about how Nintendo minimizes the damage this unprecedented disaster of a system causes so that their entire business isn't irrevocably diminished as a result.
crazygambit
Member
I think the ship has sailed for WiiU. It would do better than now, sure, but I don't think this console can do incredible business anymore. Certainly not because of just 1 game.
Apophis2036
Banned
Depends what we mean by 'incredible business' I suppose but they sold almost 500 000 consoles in last Decembers NPD with $299 NSMB U / Wind Waker HD packs. A $249 MK8 bundle would at least double that number imo.
A. This is a big change for Nintendo; and,
B. Prices drop pretty directly as a result of economies of scale (driving technological advancement). This is never going to happen with the Wii U.
Boombloxer
Member
The WiiU hope continues to ignore market reality.
Did this ever happen for the Gamecube? That's the sales trajectory you should be looking at. Everyone's going to be buying PS4s and Ones already, another $249 system is unlikely. Why buy the other system when both of the others do everything better except have a tablet controller? The 2/3DS is probably going to be their biggest seller.
Did this ever happen for the Gamecube? That's the sales trajectory you should be looking at. Everyone's going to be buying PS4s and Ones already, another $249 system is unlikely. Why buy the other system when both of the others do everything better except have a tablet controller? The 2/3DS is probably going to be their biggest seller.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
Yeh the GC sold 1m December of 2003 when it dropped its price to $99. Sales in 2004 dropped off dramatically though. Still the XBox and PS2 outsold it by a bit that December.
John Harker
Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
In fairness the first one hit the hugely successful wave of Kinect. Kinect 2 as an integrated platform doesn't have the recognition or good will anymore
... Down 80% or so
Apophis2036
Banned
2014 is the last year any sort of improvement (and I do mean improvement, not turnaround) is possible imo. There is MK8, Smash and then possibly the Skylanders like NFC figure title you would think would be out in time for Christmas.
I don't think WiiU will reach Gamecube numbers, I think 15 million Worldwide is the highest it will get to.
A $249 WiiU (with a game) will be $150 cheaper than both PS4/XBone and not require a $50 subscription to play the big name titles online. This is a massive factor for families who want a console, $200 saved is four extra games.
Why will people buy it once it reaches that price ?, to play Nintendo games of course. Whether it's families or more core gamers looking for a second console.
Price (and advertising) are incredibly important factors for the family market Nintendo go after and they have messed up both with WiiU which is why it's selling the kind of numbers it is.
People can talk until they're blue in the face about graphical power, the lack of third party support and the tablet not being appealing but the reality is that the price and marketing have both significantly hamstrung WiiU hardware sales.
When WiiU hits $249 with a big name title included and they actually start to advertise it I think a lot of people are going to be surprised at how much it's sales improve. A guy on eBay sold 1500 NSMBU bundles @ $249 in less than an hour last September / October (the month before the console sold around 35 000 units in a whole month's NPD). That tells you that demand is there... at the right price.
I don't think there is any question that 3DS will be a much better seller for Nintendo than WiiU.
SwiftDeath
Member
Paging Aquamarine
Or perhaps Shinra?
Really Apoph? Lack of third party support is as irrelevant to Wii U's failing as it's lack of graphical power and having a tablet? Really?
Sureok.gif
BattleMonkey
Member
People surprised by Infamous? The games always have been front loaded and Sony didn't bother to continue to market the game post release. It's so far sold well for the franchise but it's never been a big hit.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
@Harker/aqua any numbers for the Lego games? I'm personally curious about the LTDs of the 4 on Wii U, but it's just interesting to see 3 of them show up on the NPD charts this month.
shinra-bansho
Member
I don't think we ever got NPD numbers for Kinect Sports.
On price, about 60% of all GCN's were sold at the $99 entry. But that ignores the length of time it was that price on the market.
When you 'normalize' it to the number of months at a given entry price, the GCN sold the most units per month on average at it's initial launch price of $199.
Basically the mainstream consumer sweet-spot seems to be $199 up to $299, but you can get a long tail of laggard sales at budget $149 and $99 prices if you manage to keep the system relevant enough to stay on the market.
On price, about 60% of all GCN's were sold at the $99 entry. But that ignores the length of time it was that price on the market.
When you 'normalize' it to the number of months at a given entry price, the GCN sold the most units per month on average at it's initial launch price of $199.
Basically the mainstream consumer sweet-spot seems to be $199 up to $299, but you can get a long tail of laggard sales at budget $149 and $99 prices if you manage to keep the system relevant enough to stay on the market.
The bolded would matter as a point of difference in the event that the Wii U was actually getting those titles.
Apophis2036
Banned
I wouldn't go as far as to say "irrelevant" but I don't think it's the main cause at all. WiiU has had the last two Assassin's Creed and Call of Duty games, Batman Arkham Origins and Splinter Cell Blacklist and they have all "bombed".
Families / Children (who are Nintendo's primary customers) do not care if WiiU has the latest third party releases because the fact is that the majority of those games are aimed at a completely different consumer than Nintendo consoles are.
There are of course exceptions with the likes of Sonic Racing Transformed and Rayman Legends (I believe both of those games sold better on WiiU than they did on PS360) but the reason for that is because those games are very similar to Nintendo's usual releases.
Pricepoint and marketing are the main two reasons why WiiU has failed imo, you could blame the Gamepad aswell because the price point is what it is because of it.
The biggest lesson of WiiU for Nintendo is that they absolutely cannot release a console that is North of $249 in the future. Two of the reasons Wii was as successful as it was was because it was available at the $249 "impulse buy" price point and because the marketing was spot on. No one gave a flying fuck that it ran in SD, was 20x weaker than PS360 or didn't have all the latest and greatest core third party releases.
Games and price are what really matter, people love Nintendo games but are not willing to spend $300+ on a console to play them. That really is the top and bottom of WiiU's failure to me.
If Nintendo are not going to battle Sony and MS with on par hardware / full third party support then they must go for an extremely cheap MSRP. I would aim for $199 for the next console / $149 for the handheld at launch.
Wasnt Infamous #1 software title on next-gen for April (XB1/PS4?)?
prag16
Banned
I have a sneaking suspicious xbone will lose June as well. We'll see what happens at E3 though.
Why would it be hysterical?
Do you find it hysterical when the Wii U doesn't sell well?
Did you find it hysterical when the PS3 was outsold 3:1 or 5-6:1?
I don't think any of that is funny.
I'm not sure the X1 will ever beat the PS4 in the NPD, I doubt it will happen much if at all.
SwiftDeath
Member
Why would the XB1 have to outsell the PS4 to sell well?