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[dammitmattt]

I think they will. Wii Play, Mario Party, are going to be big with the casual gamers. Nintendo needs something in March and I bet it's Metroid.

Keep in mind, that Xbox 360 had nothing until March. Sony really doesn't have anything until March. Nintendo will be fine. The audience that Nintendo is going after will continue to buy the system for Wii sports. They don't pick a game, have everyone buy it, and pick a new game next month. That is what the 360 audience has been doing. Look at the sales of Brain Age, Nintendogs and other non-core games have been doing.

I'm sure that Nintendo will be fine with the games they have coming, though there is absolutely no way that Wii Play, Wario Ware, or Mario Party will have the universal appeal of Wii Sports. However, my original point still stands. If you are a hardcore gamer and you ONLY have a Wii, you're going to be playing a lot of minigames or shoddy ports for a while.

However, the Wii is PERFECT as a secondary or casual system.

 

[jarrod]

Isn't Fire Emblem Q1 in Japan also?

Yep. There's also Densha de Go, Puzzle Bobble, Bomberman and plenty of other traditional games. Plus the previously stated Virtual Console keeps nostalic hardcore gamers going pretty well... if anything Wii's lacking in tentpole flagship games post launch (Sonic, Fire Emblem and DQ Swords are about it). But really, PS3's not much better off in that area either.

 

[jarrod]

However, my original point still stands. If you are a hardcore gamer and you ONLY have a Wii, you're going to be playing a lot of minigames or shoddy ports for a while.

Or importing more traditional games (fighters, puzzlers, RPGs, adventure, simulation, etc) or buying classics via the Virtual Console.

Wii's lacking in big brands for Q1/Q2 morso than a variety of content.

 

[PantherLotus]

I started saying last summer that the whole "secondary system" = 2nd (or 3rd) place is a fallacy.

Think about it.

Let's say 10 people all own either a PS3 OR a 360, and we'll call it a 6/4 split for now. BUT, 8 out of those 10 have a secondary system (the Wii), then the Wii wins by default. The greatest thing Nintendo could hope for is that the PS3 and the 360 are hard to differentiate from each other and sell accordingly. That leaves a wide berth for a 3rd party to come in and appeal to both sets while seemingly not threatening either one.

It's a brilliant strategy and I believe it will work. The whole Blue Ocean thing doesn't just mean grannies, it means gamers too. However, the only way they can execute the Blue Ocean strategy is by offering their system at the lowest price (which explains the graphics).

Of course, we all already knew this, but sometimes get *surprised* when we hope for something else to happen.

 

[d[-_-]b]

Or importing more traditional games (fighters, puzzlers, RPGs, adventure, simulation, etc) or buying classics via the Virtual Console.

Wii's lacking in big hackjobs for Q1/Q2 morso than a variety of content.

fixt

Spoiler

not really

 

[Ulairi]

I'm sure that Nintendo will be fine with the games they have coming, though there is absolutely no way that Wii Play, Wario Ware, or Mario Party will have the universal appeal of Wii Sports. However, my original point still stands. If you are a hardcore gamer and you ONLY have a Wii, you're going to be playing a lot of minigames or shoddy ports for a while.

However, the Wii is PERFECT as a secondary or casual system.

I'm a hardcore gamer and I only have the Wii. I'm still playing Zelda and then I have Red Steel, TC, and bunch of VC games I've downloaded to play.

 

[soundwave05]

Sonic and Mario Party were pretty huge sellers on the GC though. It's kinda funny that people just assume something like Lost Planet on the 360 is supposed to be a hit title, but these are no-name franchises all of the sudden.

 

[d[-_-]b]

I'm a hardcore gamer and I only have the Wii. I'm still playing Zelda and then I have Red Steel, TC, and bunch of VC games I've downloaded to play.

I'm the same, I guess we're rare breeds.

 

[jarrod]

Sonic and Mario Party were pretty huge sellers on the GC though. It's kinda funny that people just assume something like Lost Planet on the 360 is supposed to be a hit title, but these are no-name franchises all of the sudden.

Both will easily outsell Lost Planet. If we're looking at guaranteed sellers, Wii's arguably better positioned than 360 or PS3 for Q1/Q2 even...

 

[jon61586]

Good for the wii but we will have to see if it has the staying power to continue to sell like it is doing because November and December only mean a little bit in the grand scheme of things.

EDIT: Personally I see Wii sales slowing down in the next year because you can only live off of a control for so long. You also need the games that appeal to the mainstream (GT, GTA, Halo, traditional Madden) Of course this only for the US since I listed games that have major appeal in the US.

 

[dammitmattt]

I started saying last summer that the whole "secondary system" = 2nd (or 3rd) place is a fallacy.

Think about it.

Let's say 10 people all own either a PS3 OR a 360, and we'll call it a 6/4 split for now. BUT, 8 out of those 10 have a secondary system (the Wii), then the Wii wins by default. The greatest thing Nintendo could hope for is that the PS3 and the 360 are hard to differentiate from each other and sell accordingly. That leaves a wide berth for a 3rd party to come in and appeal to both sets while seemingly not threatening either one.

It's a brilliant strategy and I believe it will work. The whole Blue Ocean thing doesn't just mean grannies, it means gamers too. However, the only way they can execute the Blue Ocean strategy is by offering their system at the lowest price (which explains the graphics).

Of course, we all already knew this, but sometimes get *surprised* when we hope for something else to happen.

I've seen this logic bandied about over the last few months and I tend to agree with it.

I'm a hardcore gamer and I only have the Wii. I'm still playing Zelda and then I have Red Steel, TC, and bunch of VC games I've downloaded to play.

I feel for you. There are at least a dozen shooters on the 360/PS3 from the past year that are MUCH better than Red Steel. I can understand being a Wii-only owner due to financial reasons, but other than what, why????

Both will easily outsell Lost Planet. If we're looking at guaranteed sellers, Wii's arguably better positioned than 360 or PS3 for Q1/Q2 even...

Are you sure about that? I wouldn't be surprised to see Lost Planet hit a million, though Sonic and Mario Party will eventually catch up since Nintendo games sell well for years.

 

[Odysseus]

I started saying last summer that the whole "secondary system" = 2nd (or 3rd) place is a fallacy.

Think about it.

Let's say 10 people all own either a PS3 OR a 360, and we'll call it a 6/4 split for now. BUT, 8 out of those 10 have a secondary system (the Wii), then the Wii wins by default. The greatest thing Nintendo could hope for is that the PS3 and the 360 are hard to differentiate from each other and sell accordingly. That leaves a wide berth for a 3rd party to come in and appeal to both sets while seemingly not threatening either one.

It's a brilliant strategy and I believe it will work. The whole Blue Ocean thing doesn't just mean grannies, it means gamers too. However, the only way they can execute the Blue Ocean strategy is by offering their system at the lowest price (which explains the graphics).

Of course, we all already knew this, but sometimes get *surprised* when we hope for something else to happen.

the fallacy is thinking that many people would own a second system.

under that assumption, literally every xbox and gamecube owner last generation was a ps2 owner. even then, the percentage of ps2 owners with a second system doesn't approach your hypothetical scenario here.

the lion's share of gamers are single system owners, and the multiple console types are thankfully very rare.

 

[soundwave05]

Actually most people I know that owned a GameCube or XBox also owned a PS2.

PS2 was the only system that a lot of people owned as their only system IMO. This generation will likely be a lot more segmented I think without one dominant platform.

 

[Ulairi]

I feel for you. There are at least a dozen shooters on the 360/PS3 from the past year that are MUCH better than Red Steel. I can understand being a Wii-only owner due to financial reasons, but other than what, why????

Time. I don't have enough time to play every good game on every console. I own a DS for plane and train rides and a Wii for when I'm at home. (I'm rolling the Cube into the wii) I don't really play console games online, so a lot of the good shooters on the 360, I don't really want to play. I'll buy a 360 when Blue Dragon is released. Right now, the only two games on 360 I want are VP and Kameo. I own a 1080p TV and have a nice sound system. I also play WoW on my computer.

I don't have the time to play through every game. So, I pick the system with games that I'm going to want to play. I want to play Zelda, Mario, Metroid. Those are coming out within the year of its release. I also like some of the VC games.

 

[Jammy]

I consider myself a hardcore gamer and also will only have a Wii until the holiday season. Price (and time) is just too big of a factor for a college kid. With a DS and PS2 as well, I have plenty of content to play, even on downtime. And the odds are that during that "downtime" I'd do other stuff people in college usually do.

I agree with what several people have said here already. The Wii might not have those big/new hits in Q1 2007, but it has Sonic and the Secret Rings, Wii Play, SSX Blur, Mario Party 8, and a couple others that are sure to sell really well because of the casuals that have made the Wii so popular in the first place. And no, the people playing Mario Party 8 will not be the same ones that bought Mario Party 5 on the GCN.

And the Virtual Console fills in any void nicely. They might not have online, but they're called classics for a reason. I can't believe I missed gems like Ristar, Gunstar Heroes, and Bonk's Adventure in the past.

 

[birdchili]

are there any reasonably accurate guesses to the number of multi-console owners last gen as a percentage of the total console-owning population?

i'm guessing it's *extremely small* by the end of the generation (ie: once all the people who buy at $149/$99 have a console). while Wii might make muliti-ownership a bit higher this gen due to the different experiences, you're still going to see the market leader as the sole console in most homes it's in.

wii will win as a primary/only console in the home (from this generation), or it won't come in anywhere near first.

 

[soundwave05]

There isn't going to be a slam dunk no.1 console champion this generation IMO. The 360 is not performing like the second coming of the PS2 either ... the PS3 is mired by a terrible price point and doesn't have a headstart that allows it to hoarde 3rd party content. We're headed to market splitsville here.

The Wii will take a lot of the PS2 audience that prefers more casual play, things like Sing Star and platformers and Kingdom Hearts and that sorta stuff. There's 100 million + PS2 owners, only 10 million bought GTA. Nintendo definitely has room to move in and steal different parts of the Playstation audience ... of which the "hardcore" player is only one component.

 

[Jammy]

I feel for you. There are at least a dozen shooters on the 360/PS3 from the past year that are MUCH better than Red Steel. I can understand being a Wii-only owner due to financial reasons, but other than what, why????

There are a dozen shooters that are great on the PS3? Really, I can list one, and "financial reasons" is a damn good reason to miss out on a console for a SINGLE better FPS.

Are you sure about that? I wouldn't be surprised to see Lost Planet hit a million, though Sonic and Mario Party will eventually catch up since Nintendo games sell well for years.

Lost Planet should sell well. The proof is in the pudding (number of demos that have been downloaded on XBL already). But Wii Play has already sold over 500,000 in Japan alone and has also been in the top five of Wii's best-selling games in Europe. It comes with a controller, too, and those are about as hard to find as a PS3 now. Sonic always performs really well on Nintendo systems, and I can't name a Mario Party game that hasn't shattered the million mark.

 

[kisakiproject]

Thursday will be the biggest GAF war ever. I'm psyched.

 

[Nameless]

the fallacy is thinking that many people would own a second system.

under that assumption, literally every xbox and gamecube owner last generation was a ps2 owner. even then, the percentage of ps2 owners with a second system doesn't approach your hypothetical scenario here.

the lion's share of gamers are single system owners, and the multiple console types are thankfully very rare.

I don't know. I only new a handful of people who owned either an Xbox or a Gamecube exclusively. Most everyone I know had either a PS2 only or a PS2 and one other system. But I do see what Panther is saying, and he is probably right. Wii60 or PSWii is far more viable for most than PS60; Not only because the PS60 combo is going to run you $1000 but because there is less of a difference between the two consoles. You look at the line-ups there are very few 3rd party titles not going to both. But the Wii may end up having more 3rd party games not on either, if for no other reason than the 360 and PS3 being 'too advanced' for those type of games.

 

[birdchili]

I don't know. I only new a handful of people who owned either an Xbox or a Gamecube exclusively.

almost everyone i know who games has either:

- one (current-gen) console
- one console plus gaming pc
- gaming pc only

many of these people are spending quite a bit of money and time playing games...

i'm convinced that the multi-console owners are a tiny percentage of the population.

 

[NWO]

Sonic and Mario Party were pretty huge sellers on the GC though. It's kinda funny that people just assume something like Lost Planet on the 360 is supposed to be a hit title, but these are no-name franchises all of the sudden.

Sonic games don't sell as well on the Playstation/Xbox and they have been real shitty lately but they still seem to be big sellers on Nintendo consoles.

Cube Sonic Adventure 2 cleared 1.2 million in America
Cube Sonic Mega Collection cleared 1 million in America
Cube Sonic Heroes cleared 800,000 in America
Cube Sonic DX cleared 700,000 in America
Cube Sonic Riders cleared 350,000 in America

And Mario Party is ALWAYS down played by this forum but it puts up massive sales for a yearly franchise spin off of Mario.

1 million + for Mario Party 4 in America
850,000+ for Mario Party 5 in America
750,000+ for Mario Party 6 in America
700,000+ for Mario Party 7 in America

And the last 2 Mario Party games (6 + 7) came out when the Cube was done so I fully expect Mario Party Wii to sell 1 million based off of what the Cube games did.

I can see why people on here wouldn't want to buy a Wii for these games (I still don't own a "next gen" console and I won't until they lower in price) but to totally ignore the fact that Sonic and Mario Party will sell on the Wii because you don't like them would be as foolish as the people who brushed them off selling on the Cube because they didn't buy them.

 

[soundwave05]

Wii could be the primary console for a lot of people too. Not everyone is a hardcore gamer ... I would say at least 30% of the PS2 userbase is very casual type of a player.

If they cash in off that their userbase will go from 25 million on the GC to potentially 50-60 million .... I think Nintendo is more that content with that market proposition. Hardcore players are the ones the most likely to own multiple consoles.

 

[PantherLotus]

There isn't going to be a slam dunk no.1 console champion this generation IMO. The 360 is not performing like the second coming of the PS2 either ... the PS3 is mired by a terrible price point and doesn't have a headstart that allows it to hoarde 3rd party content. We're headed to market splitsville here.

The Wii will take a lot of the PS2 audience that prefers more casual play, things like Sing Star and platformers and Kingdom Hearts and that sorta stuff. There's 100 million + PS2 owners, only 10 million bought GTA. Nintendo definitely has room to move in and steal different parts of the Playstation audience ... of which the "hardcore" player is only one component.

How would you respond to the idea that the market never truly splits? There has always been one clear-cut winner, right? Even the SNES pulled ahead of the GEN down the stretch, and that was only a two-way contest.

So what now? Because all three systems are flawed (price?, differentiablity?, graphics?) now they're going to make the market do something that it has never historically done? I could be completely wrong about the past, but nothing comes to mind that suggests a split market (50/50 or even 33/33/33) has ever happened or ever will happen.

 

[starship]

No.

O rly?

The company also notes that the current-gen PlayStation 2 hardware, which outsold the 360 in November, likely sold around 1 million units." Overall, according to their estimates, U.S. hardware installed base currently stands at 18 million next generation consoles (including handhelds) as of the end of November 2006 (up from 8 million at year end 2005).

 

[soundwave05]

The SNES did not pull away from the Genesis that dramatically. The US market was definitely split on that one. Just because the SNES pulled away a bit at the end doesn't make that generation as a whole anything other than basically a split.

This is also probably the first time ever we'll see two console platforms in Japan that top 10 million userbase over there.

 

[PantherLotus]

The SNES did not pull away from the Genesis that dramatically. The US market was definitely split on that one.

But was there a legitimate 3rd contender?

And when you say a split market, how do you mean? Coming down to two systems owning the majority or a 3-way tie?

 

[underfooter]

I guess I missed a gaf memo... why is it a surprise that a brand new system that was the hot item last christmas outsells a year old system if the supply is good? I would fully expect PS3 and Wii to outsell 360 in Nov and Dec if they had enough supply.

Is this mainly fun for trolling or something? Typical GAF bs?

Ya really. It seems to be more of a shipping war than a console race right now with wii and PS3.

 

[soundwave05]

But was there a legitimate 3rd contender?

And when you say a split market, how do you mean? Coming down to two systems owning the majority or a 3-way tie?

I see a split is marketshare, though one of the three may sell say 60 million WW while the other guy does 45-50 million or something like that.

Beyond that I see a demographic shift coming too. The very casual segment of the Playstation audience will abandon Sony IMO.

The Playstation audience is not just GTA players, it's also a ton of younger kids, more casual people who only play here and there, people who like more social type games, etc. etc. etc. That's how Sony, unlike MS, has been able to sell a ton of different brands like Jak & Daxster, Kingdom Hearts, Pa Rappa, Sing Star, Dance Dance Revolution, etc. on their platforms over the years. You don't do that just by getting one demographic.

 

[PantherLotus]

I see a split is marketshare, though one of the three may sell say 60 million WW while the other guy does 45-50 million or something like that.

Beyond that I see a demographic shift coming too. The very casual segment of the Playstation audience will abandon Sony IMO.

The Playstation audience is not just GTA players, it's also a ton of younger kids, more casual people who only play here and there, people who like more social type games, etc. etc. etc.

So basically a repeat of last gen (PS2, XBOX, GC) but in a different order? (and #1 and #2 being closer?)

 

[soundwave05]

So basically a repeat of last gen (PS2, XBOX, GC) but in a different order? (and #1 and #2 being closer?)

No, probably more like this

PS3 - 55 million
Wii - 55 million
360 - 40 million

This could also be the first gen where we really see a different winner in each territory. Nintendo leads Japan, Sony leads Europe, MS leads North America for instance.

Of course this would be a mindf-ck to fanboys because they'll have nothing to crow over. Which is good if you ask me. People can shut the f-ck up and just play the games, of which there will be plenty of on each platform because they'll all have high marketshare.

 

[Nameless]

I think the Wii is going to totally gobble up the children market. Not saying its a kiddy platform, but it quite possibly be THE choice of system for that demographic and or parents shopping for that demographic. I was at GS last week, and there was this group of 4-5 8 year olds and they were going APE shit over Excite Truck...EXCITE TRUCK. And over the holidays I had one of my cousins over(hes 10).. So being the cool big cousin that I am, I pop Gears in and hand him the controller.. This little brat has the audacity to ask me why I don't have a Wii...

Only thing with that, is that 3rd parties can get fooled. And release games on based on the hardware sales, but have them not sell because they're not attractive to the demographic.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Of course this would be a mindf-ck to fanboys because they'll have nothing to crow over.

No, then each fanboy cluster would claim the other territories "don't matter". :lol

 

[Newzboyz99]

Yeah but Japan= most important ;0

 

[Branduil]

Sonic games don't sell as well on the Playstation/Xbox and they have been real shitty lately but they still seem to be big sellers on Nintendo consoles.

Cube Sonic Adventure 2 cleared 1.2 million in America
Cube Sonic Mega Collection cleared 1 million in America
Cube Sonic Heroes cleared 800,000 in America
Cube Sonic DX cleared 700,000 in America
Cube Sonic Riders cleared 350,000 in America

And Mario Party is ALWAYS down played by this forum but it puts up massive sales for a yearly franchise spin off of Mario.

1 million + for Mario Party 4 in America
850,000+ for Mario Party 5 in America
750,000+ for Mario Party 6 in America
700,000+ for Mario Party 7 in America

And the last 2 Mario Party games (6 + 7) came out when the Cube was done so I fully expect Mario Party Wii to sell 1 million based off of what the Cube games did.

I can see why people on here wouldn't want to buy a Wii for these games (I still don't own a "next gen" console and I won't until they lower in price) but to totally ignore the fact that Sonic and Mario Party will sell on the Wii because you don't like them would be as foolish as the people who brushed them off selling on the Cube because they didn't buy them.

I agree. The Wii may have a drought as far as GAFers are concerned, but I really don't think that will effect sales. Wii Play, Wario Ware, Sonic, and Mario Party should all have excellent sales.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

No, probably more like this

PS3 - 55 million
Wii - 55 million
360 - 40 million

This could also be the first gen where we really see a different winner in each territory. Nintendo leads Japan, Sony leads Europe, MS leads North America for instance.

Of course this would be a mindf-ck to fanboys because they'll have nothing to crow over. Which is good if you ask me. People can shut the f-ck up and just play the games, of which there will be plenty of on each platform because they'll all have high marketshare.

Wii is going to take Japan, and then the rest of the world. This, I predict.

Wii - 80 Mil.
360 - 30 Mil.
PS3 - 25 Mil.

 

[Souldriver]

Wii is going to take Japan, and then the rest of the world. This, I predict.

Wii - 80 Mil.
360 - 30 Mil.
PS3 - 25 Mil.

Whoaaaah. Bold statement. 0_o

Not impossible, but I myself wouldn't predict such extreme numbers.

 

[charlequin]

i'm convinced that the multi-console owners are a tiny percentage of the population.

What's the argument for this? It's obvious that GAF (which is full of multi-console owners) is unrepresentative, but what additional proof does anyone have in either direction here? My instinct is to say that you have to go further down the "casual" ladder than some of you are saying before you run out of multi-console owners -- I know a lot of people who are, say, moderately dedicated RPG fans and bought a PS2 and GC, or action fans who bought a PS2 and Xbox -- people who aren't "hardcore" gamers (wouldn't post on a place like GAF or keep up with game news on websites) but buy ~10 new games a year including some more obscure, non-bestselling titles.

Has anyone ever done a study of this or anything? I kinda wonder if there's any hard data at all.

 

[Drensch]

Lemme get this straight.

Everyone, especially the usual suspect Wii bashers, had the Wii selling approximately eight jillion units in december. Because, after all, kiddy Nintendo always does well in december. But starting in January, Wii sales will of course, grind to a screeching halt because of a typically Nintendo minigame software drought. Then of course, a mighty onslaught of AAA+ ps3 games hit and Nintendo loses? Is this the score?


Bravo to the Anti-Wii GAF Bill O'Reilly's who can spin like a mother****er.

 

[Dave Long]

Someone needs to be on suicide watch for drohne on Thursday.

 

[birdchili]

re: multi-console ownership

Has anyone ever done a study of this or anything? I kinda wonder if there's any hard data at all.

this is what i was asking in my original post here. i'm basing my punditry here on a near-exhaustive survey of my friends, a lot of web surfing, and a healthy dollop of gut instinct.

opinionated, if not always educated, me.

 

[Branduil]

It's a bit early for total sales predictions, isn't it? Nevertheless, if I was going to guess now, I'd have to say:

360: I see this selling anywhere from 30m-55m. 55m would require it suddenly doing a lot better in other markets.

PS3: 35m-80m. Really too many variables to know where this will end up. If it wins it's going to sell a lot, if not it could end up being really dissappointing.

Wii: I think this is the hardest to guess. Could be anywhere from 35m-120m.

 

[aeolist]

I feel for you. There are at least a dozen shooters on the 360/PS3 from the past year that are MUCH better than Red Steel. I can understand being a Wii-only owner due to financial reasons, but other than what, why????

Uh, financial reasons are pretty big. If I go for the lower-priced alternative (Xbox 360 premium) that's $400 plus tax, plus $60 per game, $50 per controller, $50 for a year of Live, another $60 for an extended warranty (damned if I'd buy one of those without getting an extra plan)...

I just can't afford that right now. I got a Wii for $250, the games are cheaper, getting a remote bundled with Wii Play, online is free, don't have to buy an extra warranty, etc.

 

[MobiusPigeon]

You're going to start a list war. But, the next 3 months+ have a large number of anticipated PS3 titles, IMO. Assuming they actually get released accoroing to the current released dates.

Motorstorm, LAIR, Heavenly Sword, VF5, Oblivion, Rainbow Six, GRAW 2, Mercenaries 2, & Assassin's Creed

+ some library support in

NBA Street, MOH: Airborne, Splinter Cell, FEAR, Armored Core 4, Virtua Tennis.

i dont get lists like this. all it does is give numerous reasons not to spend $600 on a ps3 when the same games can be had on a cheaper console.

 

[Parl]

Wii: 125m
PS360: 65m

 

[Branduil]

Uh, financial reasons are pretty big. If I go for the lower-priced alternative (Xbox 360 premium) that's $400 plus tax, plus $60 per game, $50 per controller, $50 for a year of Live, another $60 for an extended warranty (damned if I'd buy one of those without getting an extra plan)...

I just can't afford that right now. I got a Wii for $250, the games are cheaper, getting a remote bundled with Wii Play, online is free, don't have to buy an extra warranty, etc.

I think price is really going to keep hurting the 360 and especially the PS3. People keep saying the 360 is only $100 more than last-gen consoles but the PS2 had a DVD player which were expensive then and the original Xbox didn't do that well at $300.

 

[bigmakstudios]

Why does it seem like some people here want Wii to fail, or are atleast massively underestimating its sales potential? At this point in time, it's really looking to be this gen's PS2. I know a good amount of people who know little about videogames but are still interested in buying it, or have already decided to buy it. It's actually pretty popular among "non-gamers" considering that it's a videogame console... and I've never seen it in stock at a store.

 

[charlequin]

this is what i was asking in my original post here. i'm basing my punditry here on a near-exhaustive survey of my friends, a lot of web surfing, and a healthy dollop of gut instinct.

I guess basically my thing is that I come to GAF and I see a lot of discussion of "hardcores" vs. "casuals," but I think that's a very inaccurate breakdown of the gaming marketplace. None of my friends are a hardcore gamer the way I am (no one else follows gaming news online or has considered a career in games) but none of them match the GAF model for "casual" gamers. Is the person who works at GameStop, owns all three last-gen consoles and both handhelds, but who doesn't play much due to work and at the moment splits her time mostly between City of Villains, Animal Crossing, and Mario Party "hardcore"? How about the couple who own a GC and PS2, mostly play only jRPGs, but in that category get into the more obscure US-released stuff? My brother, who had a PS2 and Xbox pretty early on and plays both pretty often, but doesn't buy more than 5-6 games a year?

I'm torn between multi-console ownership going up this generation as each console has a much more distinct offering than last time around, and going down because no one but the hardcore is going to actually buy a PS3 or 360 at their current prices without intending that to be pretty much their sole investment in gaming hardware for quite a while to come.

 

[Mrbob]

Wii potentially beats X360 in hardware sales.

Gears potentially beat Zelda in software sales.

I guess things are even.

 

[MobiusPigeon]

I think price is really going to keep hurting the 360 and especially the PS3. People keep saying the 360 is only $100 more than last-gen consoles but the PS2 had a DVD player which were expensive then and the original Xbox didn't do that well at $300.

yeah because we all know the price will always be $400. those thinking nintendo will just respond with a price drop so early after launch are nuts.