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(NPD Estimate) Next Gen Consoles Break 3M in December (Wii > 360??)
- Thread starter Elios83
- Start date
Gary Whitta is featured on the Next-Gen Podcast weekly. He was the EIC of PC Gamer magazine (US) for a number of years and still has a column on the back page in that mag. He also wrote the Death Jr. comic book.
He's obviously not going to reveal his source, but he's definitely an industry figure with plenty of contacts. He's a cool fellow, too.
http://podcast.next-gen.biz/
http://www.garywhitta.com/biocontact.html
I'm all about giving people coronaries at their bandwidth bills tonight.
Oh, he also posts here at GAF... less regularly than at the other forum though.
He's obviously not going to reveal his source, but he's definitely an industry figure with plenty of contacts. He's a cool fellow, too.
http://podcast.next-gen.biz/
http://www.garywhitta.com/biocontact.html
I'm all about giving people coronaries at their bandwidth bills tonight.
Oh, he also posts here at GAF... less regularly than at the other forum though.
I'm really more interested to see how the PS3 does in Jan/Feb/March than the other two consoles. It seems like the PS3 may have already hit the wall already with regards to its pricepoint.
PS2 pretty much hit above 300K every month for its first year out on the market. Actually it hit above 300K almost every month in the lifecycle of the system except for like 3 or 4 months. Can the PS3 duplicate this success?
PS2 pretty much hit above 300K every month for its first year out on the market. Actually it hit above 300K almost every month in the lifecycle of the system except for like 3 or 4 months. Can the PS3 duplicate this success?
Well I guess he probably does have a source then.Dave Long said:Gary Whitta is featured on the Next-Gen Podcast weekly. He was the EIC of PC Gamer magazine (US) for a number of years and still has a column on the back page in that mag. He also wrote the Death Jr. comic book.
He's obviously not going to reveal his source, but he's definitely an industry figure with plenty of contacts. He's a cool fellow, too.
http://podcast.next-gen.biz/
http://www.garywhitta.com/biocontact.html
I'm all about giving people coronaries at their bandwidth bills tonight.
Oh, he also posts here at GAF... less regularly than at the other forum though.
His source must be wrong then, or he mis-heard him/her.
1.5million doesnt add up.
goldenpp72
Member
I thought the ps2 did more then 300k on a month to month basis? I mean people talked as if the 360 at 400 bucks was tanking at 200-250k a month?
Truth be told ive not tracked sales a lot until more recently.
Truth be told ive not tracked sales a lot until more recently.
Greenpanda
Banned
Dave Long said:
If the Wii outsells the 360, it's the industry that needs to be put on suicide watch
Greenpanda said:If the Wii outsells the 360, it's the industry that needs to be put on suicide watch
Nah... the industry will adapt. Even the likes of EA are already waking up from their long, complacent slumber.
This industry used to be about innovation everywhere, not just in graphics and processing power. We're finally getting back there.
TheDrowningMan
Member
Dave Long said:
I suggested maybe three years ago that with spiralling development costs, something would have to change or there'd only be a few development houses in existence 10 years down the line. My theory that everything will crash and a return, for many, to 2D becoming a necessity may just be averted by Nintendo's strategy with Wii.
Not saying those numbers are anything but BS at this point... but aren't those numbers THEORETICALLY possible?
Nintendo was aiming to for 2 million consoles in the US according to this article:
http://news.com.com/Nintendo+to+bring+2+million+Wiis+to+U.S.+by+years+end/2100-1043_3-6137392.html
(first google hit for "nintendo wii end of year" -- possibly outdated?)
November NPD was 476,000 -- last month was only a 4 week period, so presumably the rest would be lumped in with December's, correct?
Wouldn't the sum of the NPD be less than the stated goal, assuming Ninty actually managed to get that close to meeting it? Basically impossible, but still...
Nintendo was aiming to for 2 million consoles in the US according to this article:
http://news.com.com/Nintendo+to+bring+2+million+Wiis+to+U.S.+by+years+end/2100-1043_3-6137392.html
(first google hit for "nintendo wii end of year" -- possibly outdated?)
November NPD was 476,000 -- last month was only a 4 week period, so presumably the rest would be lumped in with December's, correct?
Wouldn't the sum of the NPD be less than the stated goal, assuming Ninty actually managed to get that close to meeting it? Basically impossible, but still...
Regarding Wii FPS controls and CoD3...
It controls well, I admit, but the mouse and nostromo n52 still reign supreme. It's just not as accurate and there are issues with the sensor bar (adjusting your hands, for instance, causes issues on screen). It really offers little benefit.
For precision, as I said, nothing touches a mouse. When I need pinpoint accuracy, the mouse is where it's at. I've also become fond of cinematic, single player FPS titles and I believe the analog stick solution is my favorite. While not quite as accurate (though still plenty so), the movement one receives from analog viewpoint movement is incredibly smooth. I'd imagine most folks couldn't care less, but for me, smooth panning allows a game to just FEEL so good at times. The Wii-mote offers neither the accuracy of a mouse (for games that demand it) nor the smooth rotation of an analog stick. It's right smack in the middle and that's not enough to make up for the shortcomings of the Wii itself.
Really, that doesn't mean it isn't a fun control method. No, I actually wouldn't mind playing more games like that...but CoD3 made me realize just how important visuals (and other associated aspects) are. The game just looks awful for an FPS. I couldn't get into it as a result. I know CoD3, as a game, isn't exactly AAA, but the game bored me to tears and I couldn't stomach more than 30 minutes. Picking up what feels like a 4 year old game isn't going to fly no matter what control scheme I'm using. If I had wanted something unique, I could have grabbed any number of crazy PC accessories and had fun there.
The Wii isn't powerful enough to deliver what I want out of a modern FPS. A new control scheme isn't going to cut it once you've become used to it. The more powerful platforms bring with them impressive visuals, but it goes beyond that and leads into AI, interactions, level sizes, and immersion. The Wii-mote doesn't offer enough to counter what the Wii is lacking. This is exactly what I had expected.
It does give me hope for Metroid Prime 3, however. I'm sure that particular game will look great and now I'm positive that the controls won't become an issue.
It controls well, I admit, but the mouse and nostromo n52 still reign supreme. It's just not as accurate and there are issues with the sensor bar (adjusting your hands, for instance, causes issues on screen). It really offers little benefit.
For precision, as I said, nothing touches a mouse. When I need pinpoint accuracy, the mouse is where it's at. I've also become fond of cinematic, single player FPS titles and I believe the analog stick solution is my favorite. While not quite as accurate (though still plenty so), the movement one receives from analog viewpoint movement is incredibly smooth. I'd imagine most folks couldn't care less, but for me, smooth panning allows a game to just FEEL so good at times. The Wii-mote offers neither the accuracy of a mouse (for games that demand it) nor the smooth rotation of an analog stick. It's right smack in the middle and that's not enough to make up for the shortcomings of the Wii itself.
Really, that doesn't mean it isn't a fun control method. No, I actually wouldn't mind playing more games like that...but CoD3 made me realize just how important visuals (and other associated aspects) are. The game just looks awful for an FPS. I couldn't get into it as a result. I know CoD3, as a game, isn't exactly AAA, but the game bored me to tears and I couldn't stomach more than 30 minutes. Picking up what feels like a 4 year old game isn't going to fly no matter what control scheme I'm using. If I had wanted something unique, I could have grabbed any number of crazy PC accessories and had fun there.
The Wii isn't powerful enough to deliver what I want out of a modern FPS. A new control scheme isn't going to cut it once you've become used to it. The more powerful platforms bring with them impressive visuals, but it goes beyond that and leads into AI, interactions, level sizes, and immersion. The Wii-mote doesn't offer enough to counter what the Wii is lacking. This is exactly what I had expected.
It does give me hope for Metroid Prime 3, however. I'm sure that particular game will look great and now I'm positive that the controls won't become an issue.
moku said:Man is this stupid. I want to buy one of them, for the hi-def movies, but I wont get certain films.
Does anyone make an hddvd/bluray player, thats not the price of a small car right now?
I wouldn't worry about it. Pretty much any studio worth anything not named Universal is planning their content for Blu Ray. Whereas heavy hitters like Fox, Buena Vista, and Sony (Columbia Picture, MGM) are not doing anything for HD DVD. Blu Ray movie disc sales are now starting to surpass HD DVD. It is only a matter of time before Universal comes crawling to Blu Ray with their tail between their legs.
Paramount and WB are neutral but have obvious HD-DVD biases. Such as Paramount announcing star trek only for hd-dvd at CES and WB announcing Blade Runner only for HD-DVD.Mrbob said:
WB keeps saying they will be more even but have yet to. The only reason this race is neck and neck is because Universal and WB have some of the largest film libraries in the industry. If WB gets over its hard on for HD-DVD the war could swing quickly towards Blu-Ray. But Universal has some HUGE heavy hitters still.
Greenpanda said:If the Wii outsells the 360, it's the industry that needs to be put on suicide watch
What is it about who comes in first in a particular month that would make some of you believe things have completely changed? Yeah it matters, but not as much as "by how much" and "how much" each individual console sells.
If the 360 sells 200,000 a month at $400 and the Wii does 250,000 a month at $250 during your regular months, all that tells me is that the 360 needs a price drop.
If the 360, oth, drops to some ridiculous number like 50,000 a month, or 100,000 a month after a price drop, and the Wii does 250,000...then that tells me there's a major change in the industry, and that the majority of the interest has moved on to the Wii.
Mrbob said:
The first player at 150$ wins the market, period, no matter what Disney and Fox want.
And so far, HD-DVD seems to closest to achieve it, and the selection, right now, is far far far bigger (and better) than the blu-ray one.
In its history, Sony has *never* been able to win a format war.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
January-October of 2001, PS2 did average between 300 and 350K each month. X360 sales complaints tended to be for three basic reasons.goldenpp72 said:
1) Due to very low numbers on launch month, it's lifetime sales were behind the original Xbox's first year in the US until very recently.
2) 200-250K is still a far cry from 300+K. Basically, lack of building up an impregnable lead and head of steam with that 1 year launch advantage.
3) People like Pachter kept making big predictions for X360 which it failed to meet, so it was losing the expectations game.
tehrik-e-insaaf
Member
hadareud said:
uh what? he just put out a statement saying he has continually overestimated 360 for the 11 months until december, and that december he has lowered his expectations
soundwave05
Member
Then again, Panasonic/Matsushita has never lost a format war. And they're backing Blu-Ray.
HD-DVD with solely Toshiba as it's main supporter on the electronics side is the one that has more in common with failed formats like Beta. Those failed Sony formats didn't fail just because it was Sony, they failed because it was one studio or one company trying to take on everyone else and eventually having that lack of support catch up to them.
VHS would have lost to Beta if Beta was supported by Sony/Panasonic/JVC/Samsung etc. in addition to Sony and Beta was only supported by Toshiba with fewer studio support.
HD-DVD with solely Toshiba as it's main supporter on the electronics side is the one that has more in common with failed formats like Beta. Those failed Sony formats didn't fail just because it was Sony, they failed because it was one studio or one company trying to take on everyone else and eventually having that lack of support catch up to them.
VHS would have lost to Beta if Beta was supported by Sony/Panasonic/JVC/Samsung etc. in addition to Sony and Beta was only supported by Toshiba with fewer studio support.
If microsoft says "Native HD-DVD support / buggy or minimalistic Blu-Ray support" in windows, you'll see people running to make it so.
There's no advantage to Blu-Ray over HD-DVD, absolutely none, only disaventages, like needing brand new plant lines to produce BR discs, unlike the HD-DVD format, and the new 51 GB HD-DVD disc just nullifies the only advantage the BR format ever had.
Don't kid yourself, the majors will go where it's the cheapest to make while reaching the broader audience, and a 600$ drive is nowhere near that.
There's no advantage to Blu-Ray over HD-DVD, absolutely none, only disaventages, like needing brand new plant lines to produce BR discs, unlike the HD-DVD format, and the new 51 GB HD-DVD disc just nullifies the only advantage the BR format ever had.
Don't kid yourself, the majors will go where it's the cheapest to make while reaching the broader audience, and a 600$ drive is nowhere near that.
soundwave05
Member
Cheebs said:And Sony when it comes to picking software formats has one of the worst track records.
All it shows is these are meaningless facts that don't have any impact.
Which is exactly the point. You have to look at the overall support. HD-DVD is a lot more like Beta, Blu-Ray is more like VHS, regardless of which side of the fence Sony is on.
Yes, but wont price have an effect on sales?soundwave05 said:
I understand HDDVD is cheaper.
This sucks though. I want HI-Def movies damn it.
Guess I will just wait for that price drop instead of plunging in right now.
****ing companies, I swear. Does anyone know the answer to my other question anyway?
Download services for movies on the Web. Do they play in high-def? Can I skip a player altogether?
I'm not sure if it's possible that the Wii beat out the 360 in December (constrained by shipments) but I can see it coming close (over 1 mill). Then again, I can eat crow quite easily on that one if those latest estimates are to be trusted.
As for the stupid controller discussion... we've had it already. Why have it again? KB+M >> Wiimote >>>>>>> Analog stick, and that's simply it for FPS titles. At least I can admit that's an opinion, but I'm sure it's one shared by the majority of objective people who have learned all 3 control schemes adequately.
I'd also like to point out that format wars SUCK, and that I, like many others, will be doing just fine with upscaled DVDs and HD content (cable and downloaded) without the need for expensive players and risk taking on purchases.
As for the stupid controller discussion... we've had it already. Why have it again? KB+M >> Wiimote >>>>>>> Analog stick, and that's simply it for FPS titles. At least I can admit that's an opinion, but I'm sure it's one shared by the majority of objective people who have learned all 3 control schemes adequately.
I'd also like to point out that format wars SUCK, and that I, like many others, will be doing just fine with upscaled DVDs and HD content (cable and downloaded) without the need for expensive players and risk taking on purchases.
Good as place as any to put this, and its a doozy;
A worldwide launch for any console is quite ambitious. In fact, it has never been done before. I suppose if we had simply done a mild upgrade to the PS2 and not pushed the envelope so hard, it would have been easier on ourselves. However, if we did that every time, we wouldnt be Sony. - Sony president Kaz Hirai
:lol Man I love the videogame industry
http://gear.ign.com/articles/753/753710p1.html
A worldwide launch for any console is quite ambitious. In fact, it has never been done before. I suppose if we had simply done a mild upgrade to the PS2 and not pushed the envelope so hard, it would have been easier on ourselves. However, if we did that every time, we wouldnt be Sony. - Sony president Kaz Hirai
:lol Man I love the videogame industry
http://gear.ign.com/articles/753/753710p1.html
soundwave05
Member
So I guess not f-cking yourself over with a ridiculously expensive chipset just wouldn't be Sony, huh Kaz?
From what I understand, it's not just the Blu-Ray drive that makes the PS3 very expensive, almost all it's innards cost more than the XBox 360, and the visual performance of the two machines is definitely a wash.
Sony had the most time to get their crap together for the next generation yet they look the most unprepared. The whole bruhahaha over spending billions on the CELL processor (how many years did we hear about this thing?) ... big whoop, the one in the 360 is more modest piece of kit but gets the same job done and didn't require billions of wasted investment.
From what I understand, it's not just the Blu-Ray drive that makes the PS3 very expensive, almost all it's innards cost more than the XBox 360, and the visual performance of the two machines is definitely a wash.
Sony had the most time to get their crap together for the next generation yet they look the most unprepared. The whole bruhahaha over spending billions on the CELL processor (how many years did we hear about this thing?) ... big whoop, the one in the 360 is more modest piece of kit but gets the same job done and didn't require billions of wasted investment.
Pud said:
I don't see why not...Its launch and the hardcore always show up. Add that to the fact that Nintendo has managed to garner some mainstream interest and BOOM...1.5 Million for X-Mas. Hell, I'm sure that if the PS3 was readily available before X-Mas, their installed base would be much higher...because of price it wouldn't outsell the competition, but it'd do much better.
In any case, Jan and Feb will be FAR more telling.
Suburban Cowboy
Member
you bolded the wrong part of that guys post. His point was there werent enough wii's in stores to pass 360. I still doubt nintendo actually was able to do it.3rdman said:
soundwave05 said:
I'm still waiting for them to announce network processing and rendering. or even better, that the PS3's cell and cells in other home devices, such as set-top boxes, tv's and computers would connect and boost the PS3's power. Am I the only one that remembers that crap? And there were people, on this very forum, that were arguing how that could and would eventually happen with the PS3. I know some of you are still around and know exactly what I am talking about.
:lol
soundwave05
Member
1.5 million Wii's would be 3x (nearly) the amount that the GameCube sold its first December.
That's not just "a few extra people". I don't doubt for a second Nintendo could have sold that many, but I doubt they shipped that much. A little over 1 million seems more reasonable, though I could be wrong.
That's not just "a few extra people". I don't doubt for a second Nintendo could have sold that many, but I doubt they shipped that much. A little over 1 million seems more reasonable, though I could be wrong.
wonderfuldays
Member
Congratulations Nintendo~
Rancid Mildew
Banned
moku said:
I tend to agree with you. 1.5 million for one country is too high of a number in the second month of a global launch that supposedly has supply issues.
gamergirly
Member
soundwave05 said:
Yes, that number does seem a bit high. But if the numbers ARE 1.5 million then you either believe it or lie to yourself for the next 4 years
Fularu said:
That's assuming that this 51 GB HD-DVD can be played in the currently distributed HD-DVD players. If not, it's not HD-DVD that would win, it would be HD-DVD v. 2.
Also, you can buy dual-layer BR burners right now, for data backup/storage. How long will it be before you can buy a burner capable of burning triple-layer HD-DVD discs?
And how much will it cost to make a triple-layer disc?
And how about BD-J on HD-DVD?
The PS3 is carrying Blu-Ray into many more homes than HD-DVD right now, and will continue to do so in the foreseeable future unless Microsoft integrates HD-DVD into their XBox 360 refresh.
Given the greater studio support for Blu-Ray, the only advantages to HD-DVD are that it's cheap to get into if you've already paid for an XBox 360, and you can watch Universal content on it.
Conversely, it's cheaper to get into Blu-Ray with a $500 PS3, and you can watch Disney and Sony content (Casino Royale, Spiderman 3, etc.) on it.
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
Rancid Mildew said:
what supply issues? did nintendo issue a press release or make an official comment?
Grampa Simpson
Banned
I think he's referring to the current situation where it's very hard to find systems. He shouldn't confuse supply and manufacturing problems with issues of demand that's far beyond the what was anticipated by the supplier when they made their manufacturing decisions.quadriplegicjon said:
Furthermore it can be assumed that no matter which way it's cut, Nintendo was able to supply far more Wii systems during 2006 in the US than Sony was able supply PS3 systems during the same period.
LegendofJoe
Member
Branduil said:
Great predictions here man. I would switch the 360 and Ps3 due to price, but otherwise this is exactly where I see potential hardware sales going.