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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT|

ManaByte

Member
Incorrect. Hoeg says all of ABK is involved in the making of COD.

"The divestiture and/or prohibition of this particular company is perhaps not feasible because Activision Blizzard King is in the Call of Duty business"

"It is interesting to see the CMA say divestiture or prohibition seems to be feasible, in the strictest sense that is true, in that you can say you can't have Activision, you can't have Call of Duty but the whole company is basically making a single product"

Timestamped


Where does he say Blizzard is making COD? He’s taking about Activision, and he’s correct. Hell even Toys for Bob were put on supporting COD.

The only connection Blizzard has to it is the storefront.
 
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Incorrect. Hoeg says all of ABK is involved in the making of COD.

"The divestiture and/or prohibition of this particular company is perhaps not feasible because Activision Blizzard King is in the Call of Duty business"

"It is interesting to see the CMA say divestiture or prohibition seems to be feasible, in the strictest sense that is true, in that you can say you can't have Activision, you can't have Call of Duty but the whole company is making a single product"

Timestamped


listening is hard especially when the confirmation bias is strong.
 
I believe it was Phase 1 where they allowed Microsoft to propose behavioral remedies to their concerns. In Phase 2 the CMA came up with possible solutions and Microsoft has to accept one of them.

What I'm not sure is possible is if the CMA will do a 180 on their decision.
In Phase 2, they offered Microsoft 2 options: either divest COD/Activision or we'll block this acquisition.

However, the CMA also said that although the CMA does not believe behavioral remedies will work in this case, Microsoft can propose behavioral remedies if they think they're sufficient. That's what Microsoft submitted a few days ago. [MS doc: https://assets.publishing.service.g...n_-_Response_to_Remedies_Notice_-_NCV__2_.pdf]

Now, the CMA can review that document and decide that (1) these behavioral remedies are sufficient and MS can acquire ABK without divestment, or (2) these behavioral remedies are not sufficient, so this leaves MS with the 2 main options of divestment or prohibition.

Anyway, my point was that it seems like the CMA has been doing everything by the books, and even gave MS a chance to propose behavioral remedies despite not believing that behavioral remedies would be sufficient in this case. Filing a court case against the CMA on the grounds of improper procedures would be difficult.
 
So basically exactly like Sony when they released PS3.
Except Sony was relatively quick to correct it's mistakes with the PS3, especially when it comes to 1st party output. They even beat Xbox that gen, even with its highest selling console, the 360. Sony also haven't committed those mistakes, again, leading to the successes of the PS4 and PS5.

MS, on the other hand, just keeps making the same mistakes, which lead to the low sales of the XBO and Series X. So, instead of fixing their mismanagement, they'd rather buy up the market with the Xbox company in the state it's in, now. That really doesn't bode well for the games under their umbrella going forward, including COD IF they get it.
 
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Sanepar

Member
It was entertaining for awhile, and still is at times. My personal favorite is after a few pages of the same users echoing each other, they then proclaim things such as the last couple of pages show just how out of touch some people are, or that people are having meltdowns. As though it wasn't themselves making all the posts.

This same group of people repeatedly state that the deal is dead, and that the CMA has already basically killed the deal outside of anything but divestiture. Others will confirm this as though it were fact, either by like or quote.

Of course once someone says that the deal will pass, they wholesale mob the person with passive aggressive ban attempts by demanding a source and claiming they were pretending to be an insider.

It is what it is though. It's the reason why that particular group of fanboys is the laughingstock of gaming the same way Apple fanboys are.
Abk is out there providing games to all platforms.

Take a publisher out of the market is not compete. It is anti consumer.

They 23 studios. More than enough and still missing in games. Only Xbox delivery every month is Phil Spencer pr bs.

What xbox fanboys should ask is fot high quality games and not lock content already available to make sony fail.
 

ToadMan

Member
The FTC hasn't won a case in years (against far bigger conglomerates, including banks), so they certainly can't prove MS would have any sort of monopoly. The CMA is going to approve it, Sony went too far trying to block this, allowing no acceptable terms. I'm guessing they make MS promise 10 years multiplatform, as they promised.

The FTC has a 100% win record over 25 years in the administrative court process. That’s where MS-ABK is right now.
 

gothmog

Member
Because they're enough for anyone with a functional brain.

The evidence is that they're blocking the deal despite those remedies.
The CMA was explicit with their remedies and Microsoft just doesn't want to do them. All indications in the media is that the CMA is not budging on it.

When three of the largest regulatory bodies say no I would say the deal is more than likely to fail than pass. Especially when the deal hinges on all three of those bodies saying yes.
 
In Phase 2, they offered Microsoft 2 options: either divest COD/Activision or we'll block this acquisition.

However, the CMA also said that although the CMA does not believe behavioral remedies will work in this case, Microsoft can propose behavioral remedies if they think they're sufficient. That's what Microsoft submitted a few days ago. [MS doc: https://assets.publishing.service.g...n_-_Response_to_Remedies_Notice_-_NCV__2_.pdf]

Now, the CMA can review that document and decide that (1) these behavioral remedies are sufficient and MS can acquire ABK without divestment, or (2) these behavioral remedies are not sufficient, so this leaves MS with the 2 main options of divestment or prohibition.

Anyway, my point was that it seems like the CMA has been doing everything by the books, and even gave MS a chance to propose behavioral remedies despite not believing that behavioral remedies would be sufficient in this case. Filing a court case against the CMA on the grounds of improper procedures would be difficult.

One thing you'll see in Bauer is that the CMA specifically included potential behavioral remedies as solutions for the SLCs. They also stated that the SLCs were only likely to last for 10 years at most in their PF, whereas here they believe the SLCs to not be limited in length particularly given the nascent nature of cloud gaming and MGS.

Microsoft drove itself into a corner with the CMA in its response to the PF. I honestly don't see any path forward for them and even if they take this to court, it'll just be an entrenched fight that they are destined to lose, though maybe they are doing it to try and hold Sony at bay from making big moves that might influence the CMA and buy them more time for its 2024 games lineup.

There is at this time ZERO reason to think this deal goes forward and I would suggest that everyone should think of next steps in accordance with the reality that it's almost certainly going to be blocked.

I think Microsoft needs to AGGRESSIVELY move forward with next steps. My guess is that there is very little interest among AAA studios for their games to be exclusive on Xbox, so the reality is Microsoft is going to need to overpay for something. They also might want to think outside the box, like some sort of partnership for Nintendo games to appear on Xbox. I'd also target Star Wars Jedi Survivor.

Even if they could get GTA6 exclusive, the game is so far from launch that the impact would be diminished through 2024, but that's their other best bet, but I'm sure Sony already has a contract in place to ensure the game appears on PS5.
 

Gone

Member
The CMA was explicit with their remedies and Microsoft just doesn't want to do them. All indications in the media is that the CMA is not budging on it.

When three of the largest regulatory bodies say no I would say the deal is more than likely to fail than pass. Especially when the deal hinges on all three of those bodies saying yes.
EU is okay with the deal especially after the agreements with Nintendo and Nvidia.

The FTC will try to block it but it'll pass after going to court.

The CMA is the only one objecting now.
 

gothmog

Member
EU is okay with the deal especially after the agreements with Nintendo and Nvidia.

The FTC will try to block it but it'll pass after going to court.

The CMA is the only one objecting now.
FTC isn't going to be a slam dunk, especially when that whole train derailment in Ohio has the legislative branch seriously rethinking the role of regulation.

The thing you're missing is that only one has to block to sink the deal, and no amount of delusional power fantasy is going to change that.
 
Except Sony was relatively quick to correct it's mistakes with the PS3, especially when it comes to 1st party output. They even beat Xbox that gen, even with its highest selling console, the 360. Sony also haven't committed those mistakes, again, leading to the successes of the PS4 and PS5.

MS, on the other hand, just keeps making the same mistakes, which is lead to the low sales of the XBO and Series X. So, instead of fixing their mismanagement, they'd rather buy up the market with the Xbox company in the state it's in, now. That really doesn't bode well for the games under their umbrella going forward, including COD IF they get it.

I thnk that goes to show how difficult it is to change the narrative. PlayStation was VERY aggressive towards the end of the PS3 lifecycle to repair the damage, but was still significantly outsold in north america by a 5:3 ratio.

The 360 is the best selling console in north america since the PS2 and the PS4 hasn't even come close to it. This year is going to tell us a lot about how resilient the xbox brand is in North America. For reference the Xbox One even outsold the PS3 and we know that console had limited success.

The PS3 was a real blunder, but that's also why Sony looked to remake/remaster some of the PS3s best performing games because they obviously have had limited exposure even on PS4.

For Microsoft to shift things around, they need to do something outside of its current capabilities and do it fast. I think that they have really limited options, but buying CDPR and some other smaller studios right away makes the most sense.
 

Ronin_7

Member
I believe you have to prove the CMA of wrong doing to get it overturned. Like for example providing evidence that Sony bribed them. Something along those lines.
This would be a disaster for Sony & Japan. There's no way Sony did that 🤣

But yeah CMA & EC hold all the power here basically.
 
Before the regulators started talking, the discourse was that Microsoft would never remove cod because of the money left on the table.

Now though, a certain set of forumites have changed their tune and at the first opportunity Microsoft are going to remove cod.

What happened to all the money getting left on the table?
What happened to the Xbox fans cheering that COD was going exclusive as soon as the deal was announced? They all changed their tune when Phil signaled they need to pretend it won't so they can get this deal through, just like the Zenimax one. Kinda like how they were spouting BS about how Series X was going to blow away PS5 in every DF comparison, by 30% or more, only to change their tune when it didn't happen. It became, "Why do you guys care about these comparisons so much?" :messenger_tears_of_joy:

As for your question, we learned about the backroom deal MS was trying to push on Sony, where they take COD away after this gen, while publicly acting like they would never take it away. Of course, the regulators didn't like that, so they tried to make it 10 years. In other words, if MS gets COD, it WILL be taken away from its largest audience, PS gamers. Fortunately, it seems like the CMA isn't quite down for that.
 
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This would be a disaster for Sony & Japan. There's no way Sony did that 🤣

But yeah CMA & EC hold all the power here basically.

I don't believe it myself but I suppose someone on twitter will spread the rumor. I already saw one person call the EC corrupt but they are the least difficult ones.
 

Pelta88

Member
They're about to Ban Hoe Law on era for defending JK Rowling.

heston-laugh-slow-smooth.gif


Info that was available from the start, but info but era didn't give a shit about. Why? Because Hoe was feeding them COPE and they relied on it. The moment he stopped...
 
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EU is okay with the deal especially after the agreements with Nintendo and Nvidia.

The FTC will try to block it but it'll pass after going to court.

The CMA is the only one objecting now.
The EU is said to be ok with the deal by "sources"but nothing concrete for the moment. They will probably accept, but it will be a slow affair and a lot of firsts in gaming history will go with it. And regulators will take their time to say yes to anything new. And Microsoft will at the minimum need Sony to sign a deal to have a clear path forward. Remember that they said no too. We have Microsoft proposing something else to them, and that will depend of their opinion. But they did protest too.
The FTC said no. It will take years for the deal to pass, and that is not a sure thing, as Microsoft can at any moment abandon the procedure, and can loose in the courts.
The CMA is the third one to say no, not the only one. But they are the only one who did his work and explained the no, and is the closest to the end of it's procedure. And it is one of the 2 countries in wich the competition and "possible harm" is the greatest between Sony and Microsoft. They have good reasons to object. And it is time for Microsoft to answer them clearly.
 
You really believe that this deal is the ONLY way MS can compete with Sony?

They've been competing with Sony for 23 years. And they kind of ruined their opportunity to become market leader.

They're VERY behind Sony studios in 1st party development just as Sony was VERY behind Nintendo in the 90s and early 2000s.

With the studios left out there to realistically buy, yeah, I'd say this is the only way for MS to compete with Sony.

They could buy CDPR, Ubi Soft, among others, and those will help, but it isn't enough. It's going to take drastic out of the box thinking here to move forward.
 

Topher

Member
Where does he say Blizzard is making COD? He’s taking about Activision, and he’s correct. Hell even Toys for Bob were put on supporting COD.

The only connection Blizzard has to it is the storefront.

“because Activision Blizzard King is in the Call of Duty business”

Not sure what part of that you are having problems with.

People are making disingenuous arguments and inserting words where they don’t exist to try to discredit what they don’t want to hear.

Ah bullshit man. Hoeg's entire argument is about about ABK. It is in the quote. If you want to be willfully ignorant than that is on you, but he specifically says "Blizzard King" being in the "COD business". That is simply a fact.
 
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reinking

Member
They've been competing with Sony for 23 years. And they kind of ruined their opportunity to become market leader.

They're VERY behind Sony studios in 1st party development just as Sony was VERY behind Nintendo in the 90s and early 2000s.

With the studios left out there to realistically buy, yeah, I'd say this is the only way for MS to compete with Sony.

They could buy CDPR, Ubi Soft, among others, and those will help, but it isn't enough. It's going to take drastic out of the box thinking here to move forward.
What is the current studio count? Don't they have like 30 compared to Sony's 20? Or am I remembering wrong? It seems to me they are in a strong position to compete without ABK if they get their studios in order. Or, am I giving them too much credit?

Edit- Looks like it is closer than I thought. Not sure where I got that MS has 30. I guess I did remember wrong and should have looked it up. Regardless, they have 23 (according to their website) vs (18 according to Sony's website + Bungie). I still do not see how that keeps them from competing.
 
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Thirty7ven

Sony make cringe trainers.
“because Activision Blizzard King is in the Call of Duty business”

Not sure what part of that you are having problems with.

Tripping over themselves to defend Hoeg’s lack of knowledge. Also forgetting he’s American and therefore won’t be in tune with how British regulation works.

But let’s pretend the rest of what he says is right on the money.
 
I thnk that goes to show how difficult it is to change the narrative. PlayStation was VERY aggressive towards the end of the PS3 lifecycle to repair the damage, but was still significantly outsold in north america by a 5:3 ratio.

The 360 is the best selling console in north america since the PS2 and the PS4 hasn't even come close to it. This year is going to tell us a lot about how resilient the xbox brand is in North America. For reference the Xbox One even outsold the PS3 and we know that console had limited success.

The PS3 was a real blunder, but that's also why Sony looked to remake/remaster some of the PS3s best performing games because they obviously have had limited exposure even on PS4.

For Microsoft to shift things around, they need to do something outside of its current capabilities and do it fast. I think that they have really limited options, but buying CDPR and some other smaller studios right away makes the most sense.
MS doesn't need anymore studios when they couldn't even properly manage the ones they had before they bought Zenimax/Bethesda. And with that purchase they outnumber the number of PS studios.

No, what Xbox needs is competent management, an area PS definitely beats them. It needs it at its studios and at the top. Phil definitely needs to go. He actually thought Halo Infinite looked good just because it was in 4K and ran at 60fps. Even the average gamer would have taken one look at that when they were previewing it in the 343i studio and asked, "Why does it look like a remastered 360 game?"
 

Sanepar

Member
The CMA is wrong then.

No matter how you look at it, they're only insuring the current status quo with Sony being the market leader continues with them blocking this deal.
Thanksgod. Imagine MS leading this market with their missmanagement of studios and still missing to delivery triple A high quality sp games?

It would be a disaster.

Ms can compete and can lead but they need to prove themselves first with games first. No, an indie like hi fi rush will not change that.
 

demigod

Member
I just hope EU will block it. Otherwise, Europe is dead and I'll be all I for exiting it.

Agreeing to a deal which basically is "let's agreed a trillion dollar company buying a marke". Its so awful on may levels.

I'll believe and hope not to be disappointed ☹️.
Ms does not do much marketing in EU I’m told by various members on here. It would not be wise to allow the deal to go thru. Imagine biting the hand that feeds you.
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
You mean mobile? How much revenue does COD mobile generate? And Diablo and Heartstone? Basically all mobile games from ABK besides Candy Crush.

Because Microsoft is preparing their own mobile store, so yes it’s also about Candy crush and and the other mobile games.
I'm poking fun at the flip floppers, derpy doo.

Keep going though. Ripe entertainment.
 

Clintizzle

Lord of Edge.
What does any of that shizzle have to do with the argument the other person was making?
Haha, maybe I read it wrong but I felt your arguement was coming from the view of - MS is wrong to take the aquisition path and should just invest in GamePass deals because it won't hurt gamers not on Xbox and PC.

Frankly, I don't care what any company does with their money but I'm under no illusion that their spending should be influenced by anything other than their own user base and profits.
 
What is the current studio count? Don't they have like 30 compared to Sony's 20? Or am I remembering wrong? It seems to me they are in a strong position to compete without ABK if they get their studios in order. Or, am I giving them too much credit?

I've seen this commentary bandied about quite often.

Does anyone actually think the quantity of studios is more than the quality of studios or quantity of quality studios?

You look at Naughty Dog, Insomniac, and Santa Monica studios, and the reality is that aside from Bethesda (who we haven't seen really work in a 1st party environment) none of Microsoft's studios come close to matching this quality and more importantly all three of these studios are hitting a new level fo maturity that again no Microsoft studios have.

All three studios are working on multiple AAA projects and if you take a look at Guerrilla and Sucker Punch, even those two rank significantly higher than the studios that Microsoft has going for them.

Ask yourself has any Microsoft studio (again with the exception of Zenimax studios) produced anything original to their studio and as successful as Horizon or Ghost of Tsushima? Both of which Sony are going to try to turn into transmedia properties?

Microsoft's biggest IP are as follows:

Minecraft
Halo
Gears of War
Forza
Flight Simulator

Halo hasn't been as good as it was since Bungie (who ironically Sony now owns). Minecraft isn't really a AAA game or exclusive (at this point) and wasn't an original Microsoft IP. Gears of War hasn't been as good since Epic worked on it. Forza is still lagging behind Gran Turismo commercially, and Flight Simulator is relatively niche for what it is.

Sony could have purchased Ninja Theory and had no interest, but apparently, that counts in favor of Microsoft's 30 studios. Again, quantity matters, but quality is much more important.

It's like trying to say Haven is equivalent to Insomniac because they're both 1 studio or that Haven + Firesprite + Savage games is better than Naughty Dog because that's 3 to 1.

It's just a silly argument. You have to look at the individual studios and what they bring to the ecosystem.
 
MS doesn't need anymore studios when they couldn't even properly manage the ones they had before they bought Zenimax/Bethesda. And with that purchase they outnumber the number of PS studios.

No, what Xbox needs is competent management, an area PS definitely beats them. It needs it at its studios and at the top. Phil definitely needs to go. He actually thought Halo Infinite looked good just because it was in 4K and ran at 60fps. Even the average gamer would have taken one look at that when they were previewing it in the 343i studio and asked, "Why does it look like a remastered 360 game?"

Let's kind of be frank here. They didn't have much before the Zenimax purchase.

Bungie left
Rare is not who they used to be
Epic was 2nd party, but they also parted ways
Lionhead studio was closed
Ensemble was also closed

They had a minority stake in Bizarre but sold that and the studio also went under. Ironically it was purchased by Activision.

Zenimax is a big deal for them especially adding in id Software and Bethesda, but it's not enough and the majority of the rest of the studios are entirely unproven.
 

Thirty7ven

Sony make cringe trainers.
They've been competing with Sony for 23 years. And they kind of ruined their opportunity to become market leader.

They're VERY behind Sony studios in 1st party development just as Sony was VERY behind Nintendo in the 90s and early 2000s.

With the studios left out there to realistically buy, yeah, I'd say this is the only way for MS to compete with Sony.

They could buy CDPR, Ubi Soft, among others, and those will help, but it isn't enough. It's going to take drastic out of the box thinking here to move forward.

With the talent they have right now, they could turn things around and make it a dog fight until the end of the generation just like Sony did in the ps3 days. But it’s MS and now that they see a gold mine in gaming they want to eliminate uncertainty by whatever means necessary.
 

ManaByte

Member
“because Activision Blizzard King is in the Call of Duty business”

Not sure what part of that you are having problems with.



Ah bullshit man. Hoeg's entire argument is about about ABK. It is in the quote. If you want to be willfully ignorant than that is on you, but he specifically says "Blizzard King" being in the "COD business". That is simply a fact.
You’re still ignoring his whole argument about how divesting Blizzard makes no sense.
 

RickMasters

Member
Yes, up to a point.

PS3 was definitely innovative even though that may not have been the most desirable outcome.

And Sony managed to turn the ship around when they realised they were bleeding customers to 360 - something xbox didn’t manage with xbone.
This especially the last paragraph. I’ve said some thing similar before about MS and Sony in regards to winning back customers. I always admired Sonys approach and reaction to the failings for he PS3. The second half of its life turned out some great games and they carried that over to PS4, along with a very gamer friendly approach in comparison to XB1 launch and MS handling and recovery.



Sony responded with must have quality exclusives and just did the right things…which is honestly the best thing to do when you are on the back foot with your fan base/ customers and gamers who buy whichever console gets the traction and becomes the leading mainstream gaming device each console cycle. MS took a whole generation to really get to the point where we are now where they can afford to shake up their release Chedual….. but now we are seeing them struggle with other teething issues like project time management and team leadership issues…. Key staff leaving. They still need to adjust their approach to producing and releasing games in that sense but maybe we will start to see that shift with them. Won’t happen overnight as it didn’t for Sony…. But they need to show the same enthusiasm and commitment to their product that Sony does or why would those former Xbox gamers be excited and come back?


This deal is good for their revenue and general business. But in terms of making Xbox more desirable to non Xbox gamers they still need to do a lot more work. All starts with must have exclusives. Having things like COD on GP certainly sweetens the pot but it will be on PS+ aswell according to what’s being said by MS so obviously it’s not something they can really use to sell consoles or increase GP subscribers as its not exclusive to anything and that’s fine. Because they have all their other studios and IPs for the exclusive stuff but that stuff needs to be hitting it out the park consistently….


So far they have had a good year…. If redfall, Forza, star field and hellblade 2 launch and are high quality games that will be a great shift in momentum for Xbox. Then going into next year with things like avowed, Indiana jones assuming they got the marks for high quality they will be in a good place as far as exclusives. Fable, everwild and other a little further out. Maybe. They will start to enter their own golden era of exclusives and along with the the value that GP presents they Win back customers. None of this is gonna happen overnight. They have been making bad choices since the tail end of the X360 era. So they have a lot of ground to cover, yet, given they only recently started acquiring all these studio in the last 3 going on 4 years, it will still be a while before people look at their games catalogue with the same “oh I gotta have that’ factor that Sony does when somebody looks at theirs. But even now when you look at all the stuff they do own and out on gamepass….. it’s going to look really good in a few years time. If they can get the consistency and quality to be a constant.


But this is also why I think they should compliment the big titles with smaller and AA games, that should also be of a good quality ( the penitents and hi fi rushes, in between the main course star fields, hellblade 2s and forzas…) variety and quality at different scales.
 

Thirty7ven

Sony make cringe trainers.
You’re still ignoring his whole argument about how divesting Blizzard makes no sense.

You’re still ignoring the part where the CMA providing the option is them preemptively answer in official terms the question “It’s not logistically and financially feasible to separate Activision from Blizzard”

CMA never says divesting Blizzard on its own is the answer.
 
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