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Media Create Sales: Week 4, 2015 (Jan 19 - Jan 25)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Fire Emblem ended with an LTD of 460,568 so it's certainly not impossible. It will need growth, which isn't always a guarantee, but at least it's close.
However, Bravely Default did 295,841 and the re-release (which conceivably sold to some of the same people) did 61,799, so predicting 500K+ seems very optimistic.
However, Bravely Default did 295,841 and the re-release (which conceivably sold to some of the same people) did 61,799, so predicting 500K+ seems very optimistic.
astrogamer
Member
I guess I must have switched the 6 and 3 in my memory
michaelius
Banned
Hmm it was 700k shipped+digital WW in december 2013 - I wonder if it can make it milion with constant sales in west and now budget rerelease
Pennywise83
Banned
For the Sequel was also available as an eShop upgrade for those who had the first game, at a budget price; hence, in my opinion, only a tiny portion of those who bought the game in stores also bought the original one (For the Sequel never had a limited edition or something like that). Also, the Ultimate Hits probably cracked the 20k mark.
Even if we assume there's zero overlap and Ultimate Hits sold 20K, that's still a large jump to 500K+ in the Japanese market.
Kresnik258
Member
True, but that still leaves another 100k worth of sales we'd need to get rid of.
By the way, I think a new HSG won't get close to 500k on PS4, I was just pointing out that PSP wasn't the last time it reached that number.
theprodigy
Member
oh yeah, isn't Fire Emblem coming out this summer in Japan?
then I wait months for localization 
Here's the 3DS games that broke 500K in Japan and the next three titles to illustrate how fast the drop off is. I apologize for Inazuma Eleven at 447K being partially cut off, but I couldn't get the scroll box to line up correctly.
You have to be quite an impressive franchise to get on here.
You have to be quite an impressive franchise to get on here.
Pennywise83
Banned
This also shows that you might also get out from nowhere and be there; see Disney Magic Castle, Run for Money, Yo-kai Watch.
Anyway, not saying BS will get to 500k for sure (even though I believe it will sell more than BD given how well the game was received and is still popular among gamers), but that overall the game sold way more than 300k over time, probably closer to 400k.
Anyway, not saying BS will get to 500k for sure (even though I believe it will sell more than BD given how well the game was received and is still popular among gamers), but that overall the game sold way more than 300k over time, probably closer to 400k.
That's kind of the thing though, no?
They were not franchises prior, so we had no barometer for how they sold before.
Usually when something notably goes up in sales it either had incredibly good legs on the first entry and then got a lot of momentum from that, or made significant changes that appeal to more people.
Like Fire Emblem for example made notable departures from previous entries with the inclusion of things like casual mode and a new art style much more in line with the tastes of the day.
Bravely Second on the other hand looks really similar to the previous game.
Given that leaves legs, could there have been a lot of used game churn on Bravely Default we're not seeing here that suggests there's going to be a much larger fan base for the next one? Sure, but I don't feel we're seeing that telegraphed.
Edit: To note, with legs I usually mean something more like Yokai Watch or Demon's Souls than a more standard "good legs" situation for a core game.
That's pretty ridiculous. That'd be one of the safest bets. Why?
What. Between PS3 and PS4 I could see this being a million seller over it's lifetime.
That is... quite a stretch.
I think so too. FFXIII was the only game that sold 1 million+ on PS3.
Still, if anything has a chance to do that, it would be Persona 5.
michaelius
Banned
In Japan rather impossible but WW should be near certain.
You wouldn't guess like Final Fantasy XV instead?
I mean, FFXV is very likely not releasing in 2015, and the brand is in decay, but if it were.
There is no sales threshold for "The Best" releases in Japan. Games that have sold 15k have gotten them, as have games that have sold millions.
A "remaster" of Persona 4 with new content on a much lower userbase sold 300K+, right? I'd expect a new entry on 2 consoles, one of which has a userbase that is likely pretty thirsty for such games, to at least hit 750k in its first few months (and its first holiday). I'd also argue the Persona brand has grown significantly since P4G's release. I don't think, that over a couple of years perhaps with a best release, it's completely unreasonable to say that it could crawl to 1 million LTD if it actually turns out to be a good game.
I really don't think it's impossible. I think Persona Q, a mishmash of 2 Persona games and EO is a pretty good indicator that Persona is extremely healthy in Japan. Typically a crossover sells less than both the franchises, unless one franchise is a lot stronger than the other. PL v AA sold less than both mainline games because they both sell similar numers wheras Pokemon Conquest sold significantly less than a Pokemon game, but more than a Nobuanga's ambition game because Pokemon is so strong. There's no strict mathematical calculation for how a crossover should sell, but for argument's sake let's a crossover should roughly sell the average of each series less 20%-40%.
I admit this is an argument made on shaky ground, but the fact Persona Q was a strong seller despite not only being a crossover, but also being on a platform that hadn't seen a Persona release prior suggests to me that the Persona series is extremely strong right now.
Sammy Samusu
Member
44./00. [3DS] Bravely Default: For the Sequel [Ultimate Hits] <RPG> (Square Enix) {2014.08.07} (¥2.700)
But why are people not pre-ordering BD2?
But why are people not pre-ordering BD2?
I'd be surprised if Persona 5 sold 1m.... WW? Definitely. Just in Japan?....
It seems that many people (now targeting specific persons, just something to be noticed) believe that releasing on both PS3 and PS4 automatically means higher sales, even though past launches and the PS3/PSV releases have showed us that in fact, it actually splits the userbase.
Reason there's so many cross-gen releases is because publishers (and Sony, most of all) wants people to switch to the new gen, not because they're expecting an increase in sales/userbase.
It seems that many people (now targeting specific persons, just something to be noticed) believe that releasing on both PS3 and PS4 automatically means higher sales, even though past launches and the PS3/PSV releases have showed us that in fact, it actually splits the userbase.
Reason there's so many cross-gen releases is because publishers (and Sony, most of all) wants people to switch to the new gen, not because they're expecting an increase in sales/userbase.
The brand itself is still much stronger than the Persona brand, and I think they're both equally likely to break that barrier.
The problem that FFXV faces is that it'll only be on PS4 where P5 is releasing on both PS3 and PS4. That's a massive advantage.
Famitsu conducts a poll on what games people are anticipating the most. I would assume that the readership for Famitsu would have dedicated console players. FFXV for PS4 leads and P5 for PS3 is right behind, and P5 for PS4 actually trails behind that version. If dedicated players are looking forward to P5 on PS3, then that makes me think that the sales on PS3 is going to be a pretty big deal.
I usually don't look too much into small sample sizes and polls, but I think having multiple platforms is a pretty big deal in this case.
You're comparing a Vita remake of a then 4 year old game to a new mainline release on the PS3.
small44
Member
I find dificult to believe that all people who bought the original game bought Golden
small44
Member
It's pretty rare that a remake sold as much as the original one,i think the remake reach the original because many people didn't buy the original and want to try it know.
thekiddfran
Member
Just wait until Final Fantasy 15 launches on the PS4!!
The sales of the console should sky rocket
The sales of the console should sky rocket
No one in this thread said or implied that. What are you talking about?
I thought your post was going to be based on another one of those sarcastic [insert word that I can NOT remember right now]. Sorry, ignore what I said.
thekiddfran
Member
people were asking how the PS4 is still selling with no big releases.
Then I posted the above comment. Whats with the snarky comment?
Persona has definitely grown a lot. That's why it is likely to break 500k. The growth is the only reason that would even be possible. 1 million is not. I don't think you realize how hard it is to sell 1 million in Japan today. Especially on consoles. Could Persona 5 sell over a million if we count the future re-releases with extra content over the years? Sure. But that'll be mostly double dipping from a dedicated fanbase. Since the PS3 and PS4 versions are simultaneous and have the same content, the initial release is not going to sell a million.
Persona 5 definitely has a good chance of doing over 500k. If you're not seeing it, well, then I just think you're bad at seeing these things.
I very much understand how difficult it is to sell 1 million in Japan. I'm often in these threads and know pretty well that to sell a million, even over multiple consoles, is very difficult. Outside of the big Nintendo, Square and Capcom franchises, only Yokai watch and something like Puzzles & Dragons Z can really hit a million.
I'm willing to accept that I'm overshooting the popularity of Persona a bit, but I really think it has become big enough to at least get very close to 1 million. I think it's probably the biggest RPG franchise outside of Square and Pokemon/Yokai (is Yokai an RPG?) at this moment in time. It's really hard to gauge a game that hasn't seen a mainline release in 7 years, but has seen numerous spin offs, animes and merch, but I'm betting that it's a lot stronger than people think.
I think 1 million is possible, and a best case scenario following some budget re-issues, but I'm willing to accept it's unlikely. I am, however, willing to bet it'll hit 750k by the end of it's first holiday season (assuming it's not released in the middle of said holiday season.)
Led_Zeppelin
Member
Since the release of the original ps2 game and now the franchise has seen a crazy marketing push for the past 3 years or more.
It had 2 anime series, an enchanted port of a ps2 game that sold almost as well as the original, an anime movie (or 2 I don't remember) and a really successful fighting game spin off that no one asked for but performed a lot better than established 2d fighting game franchises. Also atlus saw enough market or interest in the franchise to try to release a dancing game as well.
A new mainland game should have the potential to sell over 500k After all exposure the franchise had the past years.
Yeah. Since the release of Persona 4:
- Persona 1 PSP remake
- Persona 2 Duology PSP remake
- Persona 3 PSP remake
- Persona 4 Vita remake
- Two Persona 4 anime series
- Two Persona 3 anime movies (third coming out in April; five in total)
- 2 Successful fighting game spin-offs
- Successful Persona Q spin-off
- 4 concerts
- Stage shows, Pachinko machines, a Persona dedicated talk show, an Escape game, etc.
Persona I think is one of those series that actually has shown the kind of legs that suggest notable future growth.
Similarly the spin-off products perform unusually well for what they are, again suggesting notable strength building in the core brand.
It's not one of those "50-60% of the copies sold were after Week 1" type of scenarios, but a situation where we see re-releases selling very significant amounts of units, a significant upswing in multimedia, a market that can sustain spin-offs and even have the brand lift the spin-offs, and even less tangible things like the simple awareness caused by all of this activity.
I guess my feeling is just that even without the PS3, at least Final Fantasy XV has tremendous publisher backing from a strong vendor, and is one of the very last "event games" left on consoles anymore.
Persona, while a brand in clear upswing, still needs to face a market where it's coming in as a more niche, grass roots type of product in a greatly reduced market and can't use its legacy to try and bring in as many customers and eyeballs as possible in the same way Final Fantasy can.
Might as well put KH3 on the list.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
66 NDS Apollo Justice: Ace Attorney 240,275 522,922 Capcom 2007-04-12
37 3DS Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney - Dual Destinies 241,878 360,780 Capcom 2013-07-25
That's what's on japanltdrank.
Pirate Warriors 3 has a shot.
Pennywise83
Banned
+137,601 with the budget release.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
DDO will have 500k+ downloads
Maybe HSG.
ToZ did fine. If it has an LTD of 400-450k it will be fine.
GT5: 600k
GT5 + XL = 730k
GT5 Prologue (incl Spec III ) = 534k
Last time I saw GT6 it was 400k+
This franchise has declined significantly but its hardly irrelevant. It will be disappointing if GT7 does not do 500k+
Lol
Really?
With how much Persona has grown I think it has a reasonably good chance to do 500k+.
The budget release and reception following actual details will make it clearer, but I'm of the opinion that the audience is still mostly the core, given how everything has remained relatively consistent.
I definitely expect more than Persona 4 or Golden, but around like 400k to 450k.
At this point, I just don't think it'll more than double.
I definitely expect more than Persona 4 or Golden, but around like 400k to 450k.
At this point, I just don't think it'll more than double.
Just a random fact but DLC sales for Koei Tecmo games is expected to exceed 1,200m yen in FY2014. No doubt HW has played a part in that.
That Dead or Alive money.
Dynasty Warriors 8: Empires, Samurai Warriors: Chronicles 3 and Nobunaga's Ambition: Souzou with Power Up Kit did well too.
https://www.koeitecmo.co.jp/php/pdf/news_20150130.pdf