And Sen no Kiseki + Danganronpa are so low.
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Media Create Sales: Week 32, 2014 (Aug 04 - Aug 10)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
And Sen no Kiseki + Danganronpa are so low.
This is the top 10 for September. This games release the last week of the month.
Do you expect to outsell the others in just one week?
prag16
Banned
Yeah, and the longer the Wii U outsells the PS4 (looking like that'll be the case most weeks for another year or more) the more daunting that math becomes.
I said a couple months ago that I thought PS4 could pass Wii U in 2017. Now I'm thinking more like 2018... or never. Yes, KH3, MGS, and FFXV will show up eventually, but how far behind will it be by then?
Aren't these releases usually front-loaded?
They are, but i don't expect them to sell more than Youkai Watch, Toukiden or Destiny that have a full or almost a full month of sales.
I agree with you about Yokai Watch and Toukiden, but I have my share of doubt regarding Destiny.
I have doubts regarding the PS3 version too.
Tsutaya's predictions are no better than any Gaffer.
In fact, I'd say they're worse, because they can look at their pre-order information to make a more informed guess, but still put out that nonsensical list.
It's just a nice curiosity, like the Famitsu most wanted list.
No, it was never released in Japan.
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Just realized it's been one year since I decided to start my website: https://sites.google.com/site/japanltdrank/
Recorded visits from 69 countries. I can only imagine what is looking at the Neogaf analytics.
If it had ads, I would probably have made a couple bucks from all the visits. haha
In fact, I'd say they're worse, because they can look at their pre-order information to make a more informed guess, but still put out that nonsensical list.
It's just a nice curiosity, like the Famitsu most wanted list.
No, it was never released in Japan.
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Just realized it's been one year since I decided to start my website: https://sites.google.com/site/japanltdrank/
Recorded visits from 69 countries. I can only imagine what is looking at the Neogaf analytics.
If it had ads, I would probably have made a couple bucks from all the visits. haha
shinra-bansho
Member
It was just a quick look at current LTDs, disparities between platforms and the average positive delta that would be needed to overcome that disparity. The deficit is similar at around 1.2M for both Vita/Wii U and PS4/Wii U, so the lagging platform would need to begin outselling the leading and outselling it by around 12K or so to make up that deficit if it were to reach parity in 2 years/100 weeks.I'm curious what the PS4 numbers look like in your calculation, also what was the PS3 baseline after launch/at its peak?
edit: wow Xenoblade has a ton of used sales, new+used sales brings it to over 400k
Touch Detective rhythm game confirmed for 13 November for 3DS with promo video at http://books.rakuten.co.jp/rb/12886639/
Sammy Samusu
Member
Tsutaya says Hyrule Warriors pushed hardware sales.
http://mantan-web.jp/2014/08/19/20140819dog00m200031000c.html
http://mantan-web.jp/2014/08/19/20140819dog00m200031000c.html
Tekken 7 as others have said, and Dragon Ball: Xenoverse (or something similar?).
The next Naruto game will surely, at least, be cross-gen though. Ultimate Ninja Storm games sell miles better on the West than Japan iirc. Link here says UNS3 US+EU sales were over a million while the game sold like 140k units.
Doesn't Toukiden launch in Japan in August?
Yoshi
Headmaster of Console Warrior Jugendstrafanstalt
Due to the games you cited and the probably early end of Wii U's life cycle, I still think the "ever" part of your statement is strange. I think, PS4 will perform similar to PS3, considering it's getting similar Japanese support. What can Nintendo do to push Wii U sales past H1 2015 (where Smash should still have some effect)? Also, I expect DQ11 on PS4 and not on Wii U, this alone will make a difference of 3 million units in favour of PS4.
Even if that happens, 3 million units in favour of PS4? Jeez...
Smiles and Cries
Member
any leaks on how well that Zelda Musou did?
Tecmo Koei did a very good hype job never seen them push a Warrior game this hard before so I hope that worked
Yoshi
Headmaster of Console Warrior Jugendstrafanstalt
Can you imagine a new mainline, offline DQ not selling 3 million units? Thinking about it, I didn't make myself really clear, because clearly some people who would buy a new DQ already have a PS4 now, but a new DQ on PS4 would at least guarantee that those 3 million would have a PS4 (on top of all the PS4 users that might already exist and do not want to play DQ 11), whereas Wii U will most likely never reach 3 million units sold in its lifetime.
Yoshi
Headmaster of Console Warrior Jugendstrafanstalt
So, if Tetsuya was representative of all of Japan, we should expect 20k-50k for HW, I guess? Glad to see YNI hold at least on Tetsuya ^^.
what?
Team Top Hat
Banned
Glad to see Yoshis New Island doing well. I put it off as a cheesy simple game, started playing about two weeks ago and am having a blast!
You make it worse with every new post you make.
You expect that the Wii U won't sell 1.2mil in Japan with all upcoming titles?
Smiles and Cries
Member
for DQ11 to be PS4 exclusive for Japan, Sony needs one hell of a deal with Square Enix
they have DQX on Wii, WiiU, PC(?) and soon 3DS
what are the chances that Nintendo did not cut a deal with S-E when the shocker thread dropped that DQ9 was going to a Nintendo portable system?
the made shocking moves before yeah but it still was for Sales
they broke the trend of hardware port WiiU+Wii
so before they make a PS4 jump they would need to port DQX to PS4 and Vita sometime soon even announced at TGS would be ideal
I was kinda hoping WiiU might earn at least 1million more sales in Japan during this holiday season with Smash4 driving it alone
not sure why Yoshi thinks 3m is a never thing for WiiU in Japan
they have DQX on Wii, WiiU, PC(?) and soon 3DS
what are the chances that Nintendo did not cut a deal with S-E when the shocker thread dropped that DQ9 was going to a Nintendo portable system?
the made shocking moves before yeah but it still was for Sales
they broke the trend of hardware port WiiU+Wii
so before they make a PS4 jump they would need to port DQX to PS4 and Vita sometime soon even announced at TGS would be ideal
I was kinda hoping WiiU might earn at least 1million more sales in Japan during this holiday season with Smash4 driving it alone
not sure why Yoshi thinks 3m is a never thing for WiiU in Japan
Wouldn't it still be more ideal for SE to put out DQ11 on Wii U that has 2.5x bigger user base than PS4? I think that Wii U will be around 2.1 million at the end of the year if it manages to do 200k in December alone
Smiles and Cries
Member
I am just looking as what could possibly help PS4 sell hardware in Japan.
I think the MMO thing might have slowed DQX sales by a good margin
S-E might be happy with the monthly subs tho
it was never localized for the west on WiiU so I am not putting my hopes on DQ11 being WiiU exclusive
I am thinking if DQX and DGXI went to PS4 I would have a better chance signing my PS4 under a Japanese account so I can see them getting sales outside of Japan on PS4 if the games are not IP blocked
not counting that DQ will make the jump what I am saying is the sales numbers is no longer a guarantee that it stays on the home platform that has the sales lead in Japan.
the Director went on record saying he want the next game on the big screen because of the upcoming 30th Anniversary - this could be WiiU because this is how Nintendo tends to keep a lid on which games are coming until the last minute or it could be multi platform like DQX
PS4 and Vita could have a decent chance at getting a port
If they work out an anniversary plan with Nintendo I am fine with that if DQX comes to the west during the DQXI is coming to WiiU live stream whenever this megaton comes
Nintendo should try and amiibo tie in this celebration it could be a good move for fans
Smiles and Cries
Member
24 hours from now
Smiles and Cries
Member
would be happier with 70-80k for Zelda Musou
it is possible Yokai Watch only dropped 10k finishing #1
and Zelda Musou finished #2 on Media Create
I am hoping for this
Yoshi
Headmaster of Console Warrior Jugendstrafanstalt
Not trying to make this a challenge:
If DQ 11 comes to PS4, I predict that it sells at least 3 million copies (same if it comes to any other platform) resulting in a guaranteed 3 million sold systems (because otherwise those 3 million wouldn't be able to play the game). Now, considering the PS4 is already at 660k without any jRPG released for it (and will probably get to a million before there is a notable jRPG released for it - remember it didn't even have a year's end session yet), we're probably talking about a base of >1 mio players who don't necessarily will also buy DQ 11. If even half of those people are not ones who'd buy DQ 11, DQ 11 would put PS4 at 3.5 million alone, not counting any of the other enormous titles such as FF, KH or MGS coming to PS4, too. On the other hand, after this year, Nintendo will have released all its big console-pushing games, there is next to no third party support, so I can't see them going above 3 million. So basically, I think (though have worded it so badly that it wasn't even what I wanted to say anymore) that DQ 11 and Wii U's scarce release calender will guarantee that PS4 overtakes Wii U in the long run.
All of this is based on the idea that DQ 11 is coming to PS4, but as far as I remember, it was said, that the game will be playable on "the big screen", and considering Wii U's worlwide failure and Xbox One's likely failure in Japan, PS4 seems to be the only option for that.
Yoshi
Headmaster of Console Warrior Jugendstrafanstalt
Maybe it's releasing when 3DS isn't feasible anymore? I don't know, but they said, they expect to play it on the big screen.
Smiles and Cries
Member
I like the idea of a PS4 DQXI
but I don't think your reasoning makes PS4 the only choice
do note that this will be a 2016 title and if it is going to be a big screen production it should be under development already and the platform choice would have been made months ago not when PS4 starts to sells
worldwide is not the focus for DQ
1986 on NES (Famicom)
2016 celebrate 30th on WiiU.3DS w/amiibo support
it could go this way worldwide
Range could be higher depending on holyday's effect on YW2.
Smiles and Cries
Member
Sammy Samusu
Member
If DQXI was a PS4 game, it won't appear soon into it's lifetime. Dragon Quest mainline titles usually launch when the console is already quite late in its lifecycle. Look for it on the Internet. DQ7, 8 and 9 all launched when their respective systems where >4 years into the market.
Square Enix will probably wait for a long while before releasing DQ11 if the PS4 was its target. And before doing that we'll start seeing how they announce various spin-offs and remakes in order to build the fanbase before the mainline game hits the system.
Looking at the situation, I still think the 3DS is the safest choice if you want to bet on which platform you'll see DQXI. They've been building their fanbase here for a while.
But Square seem to be open to moneyhats, so everything could happen if you add enough zeros.
Not unreasonable.
Yoshi
Headmaster of Console Warrior Jugendstrafanstalt
If you're responsible for the game, wanting it somewhere can lead to getting it there.
But they have boobs! 8)
Than it´s time to build the Fanbase on the PS4.
Predicting DQs future isnt as simple as it used to be, especially when we take into account what happened in the last years and the recent producer statements. DQIX being the first handheld main game and DQX being an MMO show that SE isnt afraid to take on new unproven approaches with the series - especially when you consider that DQIX was first planned as a Action-RPG.
3DS seems like the safest choice, if it can handle whatever is planned for DQXI. But i dont think it will be 3DS exclusive - there will be a HD/console version(s) as well.
3DS XL has a Big Screen...
Which is fine and it probably will be on 3DS - but if its ends up being a 2016 game i think it will hit 4DS/a HD console as well.
No it doesn't. Don't be silly, it is big for a handheld but it still is small compared to everything else. The Vita too feels small compared to the Wii U gamepad. And that is by no means a big screen either. It is just the biggest screen with buttons and sticks attached.