Incredible.
First new third party 2-3M seller since MH2G?
Shipped + PSN downloads? Sure
-
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Media Create Sales: Week 27, 2014 (Jun 30 - Jul 06)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Incredible.
First new third party 2-3M seller since MH2G?
Shipped + PSN downloads? Sure
Bruno MB
Member
This week Persona 4: Golden must have crossed 300.000 units (retail), that's according to Media Create.
Let's see if next week it also appears into Famitsu top 30, latest figure we have is from 7 months ago and it was at 256.494 units sold.
[PS2] Persona 4 (Atlus) {2008.07.10} - 192.812 / 335.839
[PS2] Persona 4 [PlayStation 2 the Best] (Atlus) {2010.08.05} - 4.725 / 96.038
[PSV] Persona 4: Golden (Atlus) {2012.06.14} - 137.076 / 300.000
Let's see if next week it also appears into Famitsu top 30, latest figure we have is from 7 months ago and it was at 256.494 units sold.
[PS2] Persona 4 (Atlus) {2008.07.10} - 192.812 / 335.839
[PS2] Persona 4 [PlayStation 2 the Best] (Atlus) {2010.08.05} - 4.725 / 96.038
[PSV] Persona 4: Golden (Atlus) {2012.06.14} - 137.076 / 300.000
Cygnus X-1
Member
Is Yokai Watch 2 moving 3DS units?
Klon really are a total failure.
And Yokai Watch 2 has so many fun touches such as Jibanyan using a slide in the background etc that i can imagine word of mouth will be great too.
And Honke > Ganso on the eShop as well (obviously #1/#2).
Hero of Legend
Member
Hooray!
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
3DS' line-up for the remainder of the year looks quite solid (100k+ candidates):
Senran Kagura 2 - August
Dragon Ball Heroes 2 - August
Smash Bros - September
Dragon Quest X - September
Forbidden Magna - October
Tales of the World - October
Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate - October
Pokemon ORAS - November
Final Fantasy Explorers - December
Am I missing anything?
Senran Kagura 2 - August
Dragon Ball Heroes 2 - August
Smash Bros - September
Dragon Quest X - September
Forbidden Magna - October
Tales of the World - October
Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate - October
Pokemon ORAS - November
Final Fantasy Explorers - December
Am I missing anything?
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Never seen this before. Where did you get the numbers from?
Sammy Samusu
Member
Level-5 did not ship enough copies to fill all pre-orders. But at the same time there's a new shipment coming this weekend.
http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=852634
There's a special note about it on Yodobashi's website.
http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=852634
There's a special note about it on Yodobashi's website.
Yes, because there's a bundle.
You should probably remove FM from that list.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
Probably from japanltdrank. It's a google doc site compiling all the Famitsu numbers reported.
Writing here too, since it could be relevant for sales too
http://www.siliconera.com/2014/07/1...m_campaign=Feed:+siliconera/MkOc+(Siliconera)
It seems that Horii stated, during the Direct, that the 3DS streaming version will be up to version 2.0, which is something that, currently, isn't present in the mobile streaming version.
Will the mobile version get updated once the 3DS version comes? Or will it be something more for the new edition, like the monthly pass?
http://www.siliconera.com/2014/07/1...m_campaign=Feed:+siliconera/MkOc+(Siliconera)
It seems that Horii stated, during the Direct, that the 3DS streaming version will be up to version 2.0, which is something that, currently, isn't present in the mobile streaming version.
Will the mobile version get updated once the 3DS version comes? Or will it be something more for the new edition, like the monthly pass?
Infinite Xero
Member
Can someone do a Vita version too? I know Sony is usually stronger in the first half of the year and Nintendo in the second half so I wonder what Sony has left.
Yoshi
Toukiden Kiwami and The Legend of Heroes Trails in the Flash II are the most likely.
There aren't any other guaranteed 100k+ sellers for Vita.
Over My Dead Body 2 might, the PSP game did 125k.
You can play version 2.0 on smartphones as well but you need to have registered the codes for both versions on one of the 3 main platforms, Wii, Wii U or PC. And use the same account on your smart device.
The Docomo version can be played without paying for a client, so you "only" have to pay for the play time, with higher fees than the non cloud versions. But to unlock version 2 you have to buy both discs and install them too, which is why version 2 isn't readily available for smartphone only users.
http://hiroba.dqx.jp/sc/public/dgameguide
The 3DS version does have a basic price for the client and it's about the same as the all-in-one package so it should contain the registration codes for both I guess.
August - Toukiden Kiwami / Love Life! School Idol Paradise / Monster Hunter Frontier G
Setember - Sen no Kiseki 2 / Danganronpa Another Episode / Dungeon Travellers 2
October - Super Robot Generation
And Phantasy Star Nova at the end of the year
^Did you really list MHFG and a port of a game that did 56K? C'mon.
Vita has a bunch of undated things. I'd say Phantasy Star Nova, Persona 4: Dancing All Night, Dangan Ronpa: Another Episode, and at least one of the Love Live (less confident about this than the others) games will probably hit 100k+. If Kan Colle Kai comes out, I think it might wreck lives.
Vita has a bunch of undated things. I'd say Phantasy Star Nova, Persona 4: Dancing All Night, Dangan Ronpa: Another Episode, and at least one of the Love Live (less confident about this than the others) games will probably hit 100k+. If Kan Colle Kai comes out, I think it might wreck lives.
There's no bundle, it's just a standalone Jibanyan 3DS XL. There's no game with it. Still, should sell pretty well indeed, and YW2 is a big release anyway, so impact on sales should be noticeable indeed.
Probably Amazon removing troll reviews 1-starring the game just for "fun".
Not read about the 100k thing. People are saying that DQX 3DS is gonna sell +500k, so MHG could go either way. Dungeon Travellers 2 is a wild card, but I'm not gonna cry if it bombs.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
DQX is not going to sell 500K+ when the original Wii release sold about 600K+ to begin with... They also have already released PC, Wii U & Smart phone versions already since then.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Ah, ok. So, mobile version needs you to get both original and version 2 on one of the other platform in order to play version 2 there as well, while the 3DS version shouldn't, since it launches at the same price the Version 2 launched back in December. Thanks for the explanation.
Danganronpa: Another Episode is a spin-off though. I can't see it matching previous entries' sales. And speaking of Danganronpa, they should do a Best release for the Reload version for the Vita so it can get some more fans before the 3rd one releases which I assume will release in 2015.
Eolz
Member
I think that early on, they wanted a game on handheld but also needed/wanted it to be a mmo. It couldn't be achieved, so it went on home consoles (and PCs).
Now that they have a proven technology to do it, I'm sure they worked quite a bit so it could work well on 3DS.
DQXI's design has probably been influenced by those choices and their reception
and I don't think the series will come back to home consoles if it's not needed like it was here
It actually wasn't Horii who said that but Saito.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=usf_ZelrmTY
7:21
Horii just says it's awesome you can now play it on 3DS.
You think they will use cloud technology for a 3DS DQXI?
And Horii said he wants to play DQXI on the big screen. It's in development to coincide with the 30th anniversary in 2016.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=836018
I'm pretty sure Vita owners have sent plenty of MSG Capcom's way.
JP Vita owners will send the right message when Monster Hunter Frontier G sells
15k LTD
The Vita port of the two PSP games doing 100k+ makes me optimistic about Another Episode's potential. It is a spinoff, so it's a bit dicey.
Eolz
Member
Just saying it could go either way, but I don't think it'd go on console given the current japanese market, unless it's another MMO (that won't be the case).
There's still more possibilities obviously, depending on what Nintendo's next handheld will be if it releases in 2016, if they go the cloud route for multiple consoles at the same level of graphics, etc.
Horii wanting things is nice, but ultimately, S-E still has the power to decide where to go.
jeremy1456
Junior Member
I'm pretty sure Yuji Horii has control over the series. I'm pretty sure he doesn't just get to 'want things.'
Eolz
Member
Apparently I wasn't clear, but of course he has control over the series, and that he is influential.
But does he have complete control and bring the money on the table, and does the CEO and other higher-ups have no decision-making power?
27./42. [PSV] Persona 4: Golden <RPG> (Atlus) {2012.06.14} (¥7.329)
I find it funny how it is rising on Media Create charts, but it's nowhere to be seen on Dengeki or Famitsu rankings.
Anyway, if P4G ever manages to reappear in the Famitsu top 30, it'll break a PlayStation family record. Here are all PS games that managed to chart after being 1 year old:
2013-08-12 30 [PSP] Danganronpa: Trigger Happy Havoc [PSP the Best] (Spike) {2011-11-23} - 4,170 / 115,398 (635 days)
2002-01-21 23 [PS1] SuperLite 1500 Series: The Tetris (Success) {2000-07-19} - 7,174 / 284,699 (558 days)
1997-06-09 24 [PS1] Resident Evil (Capcom) {1996-03-22} - 3,135 / 1,155,003 (451 days)
2013-02-25 17 [PSV] Hot Shots Golf: World Invitational (SCE) {2011-12-17} - 6,008 / 157,433 (443 days)
1998-09-14 23 [PS1] Hot Shots Golf (SCE) {1997-07-17} - 4,896 / 1,478,272 (431 days)
2002-08-12 30 [PS1] Boku no Natsuyasumi: Summer Holiday 20th Century [Playstation the Best] (SCE) {2001-06-14} - 5,833 / 119,587 (431 days)
2003-09-15 28 [PS2] Hot Shots Golf 3 [Mega Hits] (SCE) {2002-07-18} - 3,577 / 278,971 (431 days)
2001-08-20 26 [PS1] Hot Shots Golf 2 [Playstation the Best] (SCE) {2000-07-06} - 3,943 / 265,182 (417 days)
2002-11-04 26 [PS2] Dynasty Warriors 3 (Koei) {2001-09-20} - 3,649 / 1,013,129 (417 days)
2008-03-24 30 [PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom 2 (Capcom) {2007-02-22} - 7,692 / 1,685,009 (403 days)
2009-11-30 28 [PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom Unite [PSP the Best] (Capcom) {2008-10-30} - 7,571 / 1,093,586 (403 days)
2003-10-20 25 [PS2] Taiko Drum Master: Tatakon de Dodon ga Don (Namco) {2002-10-24} - 4,567 / 695,390 (368 days)
P4G is 758 days old.
Coincidence or not, the current oldest one, DanganRonpa, was also boosted by the anime adaptation.
BTW, a glimpse on Nintendo's list:
2011-05-02 29 [NDS] Mario Kart DS (Nintendo) {2005-12-08} - 3,867 / 3,775,327 (1978 days)
2011-08-15 29 [NDS] New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo) {2006-05-25} - 4,785 / 6,178,877 (1915 days)
2013-09-30 26 [WII] New Play Control! Pikmin 2 (Nintendo) {2009-03-12} - 2,041 / 180,817 (1670 days)
2012-08-20 30 [WII] Mario Kart Wii (Nintendo) {2008-04-10} - 3,082 / 3,550,714 (1600 days)
2009-09-21 28 [NDS] Animal Crossing: Wild World (Nintendo) {2005-11-23} - 3,623 / 5,073,967 (1405 days)
PS.: these lists are based on SKU releases only, not considering multiple versions of a game; and based on my personal record (since 1996, some weekly top 30 are not available).
I find it funny how it is rising on Media Create charts, but it's nowhere to be seen on Dengeki or Famitsu rankings.
Anyway, if P4G ever manages to reappear in the Famitsu top 30, it'll break a PlayStation family record. Here are all PS games that managed to chart after being 1 year old:
2013-08-12 30 [PSP] Danganronpa: Trigger Happy Havoc [PSP the Best] (Spike) {2011-11-23} - 4,170 / 115,398 (635 days)
2002-01-21 23 [PS1] SuperLite 1500 Series: The Tetris (Success) {2000-07-19} - 7,174 / 284,699 (558 days)
1997-06-09 24 [PS1] Resident Evil (Capcom) {1996-03-22} - 3,135 / 1,155,003 (451 days)
2013-02-25 17 [PSV] Hot Shots Golf: World Invitational (SCE) {2011-12-17} - 6,008 / 157,433 (443 days)
1998-09-14 23 [PS1] Hot Shots Golf (SCE) {1997-07-17} - 4,896 / 1,478,272 (431 days)
2002-08-12 30 [PS1] Boku no Natsuyasumi: Summer Holiday 20th Century [Playstation the Best] (SCE) {2001-06-14} - 5,833 / 119,587 (431 days)
2003-09-15 28 [PS2] Hot Shots Golf 3 [Mega Hits] (SCE) {2002-07-18} - 3,577 / 278,971 (431 days)
2001-08-20 26 [PS1] Hot Shots Golf 2 [Playstation the Best] (SCE) {2000-07-06} - 3,943 / 265,182 (417 days)
2002-11-04 26 [PS2] Dynasty Warriors 3 (Koei) {2001-09-20} - 3,649 / 1,013,129 (417 days)
2008-03-24 30 [PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom 2 (Capcom) {2007-02-22} - 7,692 / 1,685,009 (403 days)
2009-11-30 28 [PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom Unite [PSP the Best] (Capcom) {2008-10-30} - 7,571 / 1,093,586 (403 days)
2003-10-20 25 [PS2] Taiko Drum Master: Tatakon de Dodon ga Don (Namco) {2002-10-24} - 4,567 / 695,390 (368 days)
P4G is 758 days old.
Coincidence or not, the current oldest one, DanganRonpa, was also boosted by the anime adaptation.
BTW, a glimpse on Nintendo's list:
2011-05-02 29 [NDS] Mario Kart DS (Nintendo) {2005-12-08} - 3,867 / 3,775,327 (1978 days)
2011-08-15 29 [NDS] New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo) {2006-05-25} - 4,785 / 6,178,877 (1915 days)
2013-09-30 26 [WII] New Play Control! Pikmin 2 (Nintendo) {2009-03-12} - 2,041 / 180,817 (1670 days)
2012-08-20 30 [WII] Mario Kart Wii (Nintendo) {2008-04-10} - 3,082 / 3,550,714 (1600 days)
2009-09-21 28 [NDS] Animal Crossing: Wild World (Nintendo) {2005-11-23} - 3,623 / 5,073,967 (1405 days)
PS.: these lists are based on SKU releases only, not considering multiple versions of a game; and based on my personal record (since 1996, some weekly top 30 are not available).
Interesting, thanks for posting. No 1994 PS1 games charted a year or more later in 1995.
A couple of pre-1996 ones that would make Nintendo's list;
1991-12-14 28 [FC] Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo) {1985-09-13} - 369 points (2284 days)
1994-02-06 26 [GBY] Tetris (Nintendo) {1989-06-14} - 230 points (1699 days)
They may well have charted even later than that, but records of pre-1996 charts are patchy.
A couple of pre-1996 ones that would make Nintendo's list;
1991-12-14 28 [FC] Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo) {1985-09-13} - 369 points (2284 days)
1994-02-06 26 [GBY] Tetris (Nintendo) {1989-06-14} - 230 points (1699 days)
They may well have charted even later than that, but records of pre-1996 charts are patchy.
I do think that DQXI's potential platforms are an interesting discussion for a number reasons, so I thought I'd try to analyze all the potential platforms.
First, I'd like to narrow down what we know and the potential timeframe since it changes the viability of certain platforms present and future.
What we know:
1.) Historically speaking, Dragon Quest has been on the best selling platform around the time of its release (excepting for brand new platforms with no install base). It used to be on a single platform, though it has become increasingly multiplatform between the ports to PS1/PS2/DS/3DS/Wii and (almost the entire series) to mobile. Dragon Quest X is now also on five platforms between Wii, Wii U, PC, mobile, and 3DS (the last two are cloud streams of the PC version). Toward this end, one of Square Enix's staffers on the series noted that since users are more spread out these days, it's important to incorporate more platforms to reach them. It's not 100% clear if he was just referring to DQX or the series on a go-forward basis, but they have been following through with at least DQX quite heavily.
2.) Yuji Horii directly implied that DQXI isn't a mobile game. Well, it might be 2-3 years after launch, but what's important is that it's not being designed or launched at one, so it's presumably a full priced retail title as opposed to an f2p service.
3.) Horii noted that the game was progressing toward a calendar 2016 release for DQ's 30th anniversary. It's unlikely to be out before April 2016 (start of fiscal year 2017) for reasons I will detail soon.
4.) Yuji Horii noted he would like to play it on a big screen. For the purposes of this discussion, let's take him at face value and assume he means it will launch on at least one platform that can output to a TV, be it a console or a handheld with TV out.
5.) For the last few entries, Square Enix has released a bunch of Dragon Quest spin-offs and/or ports on the game's main platform prior to releasing the main game. So far the only platforms that have gotten that treatment are the 3DS and mobile, of which the latter has been largely ruled out for an initial release.
Explanation of why I feel we can limit it to April 2016 or later instead of just calendar 2016:
Square Enix has noted that they want to grow revenue and profit each fiscal year for at least the next five fiscal years. Currently, Tomb Raider is the only confirmed title for fiscal year 2016 (April 2015 - March 2016). Tomb Raider, at 6.5 million copies, was actually Square Enix's best selling retail game last generation (Final Fantasy XIII was only 6.3 million as of our last update). Square Enix has stated they plan to unveil Triad Wars, Hitman, and Deus Ex in 2014. Just Cause 3 was also explicitly listed on a resume as releasing in 2015. It's likely that at least two of those will make it out next fiscal year, and could be significant (2-4 million) sellers based on the previous entries. Even if we assume that Final Fantasy XV won't release until April 2016 or later (a fair assumption), this is still a very hard hill to climb in Fiscal 2017 (April 2016-March 2017), so putting Dragon Quest XI out before April 2016 would make it basically impossible to achieve their stated financial goals.
And now, on to the potential platforms:
1.) 3DS: I feel given the five starting criteria, this is pretty much a given. Square Enix has put out a ton of Dragon Quest games on the platform, they've ruled out mobile as the platform for DQXI, and the 3DS will still be the platform with by far the largest active user base as of 2016. Given a mainline retail Dragon Quest game will want to sell 3-4+ million copies, I don't think it's feasible to not release on 3DS. Co-op has also become a central part of the series over the last two entries, and the 3DS's userbase size and local/online multiplayer capabilities both fit this very well. Dragon Quest also doesn't shy away from releasing very late in a platform's lifecycle.
2.) 4DS: Obviously, with a 2016 release, the question becomes if Nintendo's next handheld will be out by then. While I certainly think they should release in Q4 2015/Q1 2016, I'm not strongly confident they will. That said, if they do, we do have a precedent with DQX (and frankly the entire industry at this point) for doing a cross-generational game between 3DS and 4DS. Any asset upgrades done for this would also work will with any potential console ports, since 3DS graphics are a bit rough even for Japan's standards for a straight port to home consoles. Something like the upgrades for Resident Evil: Revelations should be sufficient given what sells at retail, and not overly expensive to do. There's also a potential here since both the 3DS and 4DS are Nintendo platforms to let 3DS and 4DS copies play local multiplayer together instead of splitting up the local multiplayer handheld userbase.
3.) Wii U: Well, 2016 is pretty late, but the Wii U should have at least some kind of installed base at that point. If the system climbs to 3-4 million by then, even though some of the active userbase will have left, I don't think selling 400-500K on the platform is off the table. If a commanding requirement of the project is having it on at least one TV capable platform, this is not a bad choice.
4.) PS3: Well, Q2 2016 or later is a pretty rough time to be releasing a PS3 game honestly. The system is selling in a 7000-9000 unit range already and Q2 2016 is almost two years from now. It's true that the Wii U and PS4 are also selling in this range, but the PS3's support is on its last legs whereas the PS4 and Wii U are at least going to be getting some software support in 2015-2016. While totally feasibly from a technical perspective, I don't see it as being a viable platform from a business perspective unless DQXI is going to be on literally any platform that has a potential userbase to sell to.
5.) PS4: I find this more feasible than the PS3 since by 2016, if the PS3 audience is going to move to the PS4, a lot of the active buyers should have moved over by then. The question becomes "Is there a notable audience that will own the PS4 and buy DQXI on PS4 that won't own or buy the game on 3DS and whatever other platforms it's on?" If the answer is yes, then a port is obvious. If the answer is no, the question shifts to "Are we going to put it on PS4 anyway to send a message that we're a majorly multiplatform series going forward?" For example, Square Enix has Type-0 HD on Xbox One, and has been clear in interviews that they are still trying to convince Microsoft to let them release FFXIV on Xbox One. With Final Fantasy, Square Enix is trying to send the message that "If it's on PS4, you can also play it on Xbox One and don't have to worry about missing games." Now, for a series that has 50-60%+ of its sales in the West, this is a braindead obvious move to make. This is decidedly less clear for Dragon Quest, a series that they only seem to be localizing on mobile anymore. If they want a platform that will still be relevant in the West in 2016, the PS4 is a good choice, though it will have the presumably rough graphics going against it. If they only view the title as a niche ~200K unit series that they might not even localize, the potential audience for the game will likely have a 3DS anyway. I think this is a platform that's on the table, but less likely than the Wii U or 4DS.
6.) XB1: The only way this game is on Xbox One is if they decide they're making a major Western push and putting it on every platform that's popular in the West.
7.) PC: See Xbox One. If it's a 3DS game there's no need to make a PC version to use for cloud streaming, and if it's a retail game instead of an MMO or f2p title, it's not a great candidate to extend into mainland Asia.
8.) Vita: I left this one until now since I think it's an interesting option to discuss, but also probably the most controversial. With the Vita, we're frankly looking at a system that's likely to be the last PlayStation handheld, especially anything beyond a device that streams PlayStation Now or whatever. Putting the game on Vita doesn't build you an audience you can capitalize on with the Vita 2. It's also a handheld, and one that's definitely not going to be able to play local multiplayer with the 3DS version. With home consoles, people can at least find other people to play with online and have to be in their house anyway. If they have the Vita version of a co-op game, and some kids they meet on the train or the after school study center have the 3DS version, they get left out. Since this a product line with a ticking death clock, Sony is also much more likely to be interested in convincing them to get the game on PS4 if they can only convince them to add one platform. Q2 2016 or alter is also a really long time from now, and even though the Vita's health has improved, I'm unsure how much life it has left in it. Once developers start getting ready for the 4DS or adopt the PS4, along with the continuing flight to mobile, this lowers the potential Vita developer base (barring Vita/4DS or Vita/mobile cross-platform games) as time goes on. On top of all of this, the Vita's biggest hits haven't sold all that much, especially in terms of what a Dragon Quest games sell. Overall, like the PS3, I don't see this happening unless the goal is to get it on as many platforms as humanly possible.
9.) Wii 3: I don't feel comfortable enough on determining when this is releasing to really speak to it with much accuracy. I will note that Nintendo has implied that they're going to make it much easier to move 4DS games to Wii 3 and vice-versa (perhaps to the point they both run an iOS/Android like OS that makes what's literally the same game run on both platforms), so if there's a 4DS version, there's obviously a potential there. Will the platform be out in a time frame that makes it relevant to the discussion? I don't know.
10.) 360/Wii: These are dead platforms.
11.) iOS/Android: These were largely ruled out for an initial release, but I do want to note they're almost assuredly coming 2-3 years or so down the road in case anyone skipped the other parts of the post. See the entire series getting ported to mobile sans DQIX for an explanation of why.
First, I'd like to narrow down what we know and the potential timeframe since it changes the viability of certain platforms present and future.
What we know:
1.) Historically speaking, Dragon Quest has been on the best selling platform around the time of its release (excepting for brand new platforms with no install base). It used to be on a single platform, though it has become increasingly multiplatform between the ports to PS1/PS2/DS/3DS/Wii and (almost the entire series) to mobile. Dragon Quest X is now also on five platforms between Wii, Wii U, PC, mobile, and 3DS (the last two are cloud streams of the PC version). Toward this end, one of Square Enix's staffers on the series noted that since users are more spread out these days, it's important to incorporate more platforms to reach them. It's not 100% clear if he was just referring to DQX or the series on a go-forward basis, but they have been following through with at least DQX quite heavily.
2.) Yuji Horii directly implied that DQXI isn't a mobile game. Well, it might be 2-3 years after launch, but what's important is that it's not being designed or launched at one, so it's presumably a full priced retail title as opposed to an f2p service.
3.) Horii noted that the game was progressing toward a calendar 2016 release for DQ's 30th anniversary. It's unlikely to be out before April 2016 (start of fiscal year 2017) for reasons I will detail soon.
4.) Yuji Horii noted he would like to play it on a big screen. For the purposes of this discussion, let's take him at face value and assume he means it will launch on at least one platform that can output to a TV, be it a console or a handheld with TV out.
5.) For the last few entries, Square Enix has released a bunch of Dragon Quest spin-offs and/or ports on the game's main platform prior to releasing the main game. So far the only platforms that have gotten that treatment are the 3DS and mobile, of which the latter has been largely ruled out for an initial release.
Explanation of why I feel we can limit it to April 2016 or later instead of just calendar 2016:
Square Enix has noted that they want to grow revenue and profit each fiscal year for at least the next five fiscal years. Currently, Tomb Raider is the only confirmed title for fiscal year 2016 (April 2015 - March 2016). Tomb Raider, at 6.5 million copies, was actually Square Enix's best selling retail game last generation (Final Fantasy XIII was only 6.3 million as of our last update). Square Enix has stated they plan to unveil Triad Wars, Hitman, and Deus Ex in 2014. Just Cause 3 was also explicitly listed on a resume as releasing in 2015. It's likely that at least two of those will make it out next fiscal year, and could be significant (2-4 million) sellers based on the previous entries. Even if we assume that Final Fantasy XV won't release until April 2016 or later (a fair assumption), this is still a very hard hill to climb in Fiscal 2017 (April 2016-March 2017), so putting Dragon Quest XI out before April 2016 would make it basically impossible to achieve their stated financial goals.
And now, on to the potential platforms:
1.) 3DS: I feel given the five starting criteria, this is pretty much a given. Square Enix has put out a ton of Dragon Quest games on the platform, they've ruled out mobile as the platform for DQXI, and the 3DS will still be the platform with by far the largest active user base as of 2016. Given a mainline retail Dragon Quest game will want to sell 3-4+ million copies, I don't think it's feasible to not release on 3DS. Co-op has also become a central part of the series over the last two entries, and the 3DS's userbase size and local/online multiplayer capabilities both fit this very well. Dragon Quest also doesn't shy away from releasing very late in a platform's lifecycle.
2.) 4DS: Obviously, with a 2016 release, the question becomes if Nintendo's next handheld will be out by then. While I certainly think they should release in Q4 2015/Q1 2016, I'm not strongly confident they will. That said, if they do, we do have a precedent with DQX (and frankly the entire industry at this point) for doing a cross-generational game between 3DS and 4DS. Any asset upgrades done for this would also work will with any potential console ports, since 3DS graphics are a bit rough even for Japan's standards for a straight port to home consoles. Something like the upgrades for Resident Evil: Revelations should be sufficient given what sells at retail, and not overly expensive to do. There's also a potential here since both the 3DS and 4DS are Nintendo platforms to let 3DS and 4DS copies play local multiplayer together instead of splitting up the local multiplayer handheld userbase.
3.) Wii U: Well, 2016 is pretty late, but the Wii U should have at least some kind of installed base at that point. If the system climbs to 3-4 million by then, even though some of the active userbase will have left, I don't think selling 400-500K on the platform is off the table. If a commanding requirement of the project is having it on at least one TV capable platform, this is not a bad choice.
4.) PS3: Well, Q2 2016 or later is a pretty rough time to be releasing a PS3 game honestly. The system is selling in a 7000-9000 unit range already and Q2 2016 is almost two years from now. It's true that the Wii U and PS4 are also selling in this range, but the PS3's support is on its last legs whereas the PS4 and Wii U are at least going to be getting some software support in 2015-2016. While totally feasibly from a technical perspective, I don't see it as being a viable platform from a business perspective unless DQXI is going to be on literally any platform that has a potential userbase to sell to.
5.) PS4: I find this more feasible than the PS3 since by 2016, if the PS3 audience is going to move to the PS4, a lot of the active buyers should have moved over by then. The question becomes "Is there a notable audience that will own the PS4 and buy DQXI on PS4 that won't own or buy the game on 3DS and whatever other platforms it's on?" If the answer is yes, then a port is obvious. If the answer is no, the question shifts to "Are we going to put it on PS4 anyway to send a message that we're a majorly multiplatform series going forward?" For example, Square Enix has Type-0 HD on Xbox One, and has been clear in interviews that they are still trying to convince Microsoft to let them release FFXIV on Xbox One. With Final Fantasy, Square Enix is trying to send the message that "If it's on PS4, you can also play it on Xbox One and don't have to worry about missing games." Now, for a series that has 50-60%+ of its sales in the West, this is a braindead obvious move to make. This is decidedly less clear for Dragon Quest, a series that they only seem to be localizing on mobile anymore. If they want a platform that will still be relevant in the West in 2016, the PS4 is a good choice, though it will have the presumably rough graphics going against it. If they only view the title as a niche ~200K unit series that they might not even localize, the potential audience for the game will likely have a 3DS anyway. I think this is a platform that's on the table, but less likely than the Wii U or 4DS.
6.) XB1: The only way this game is on Xbox One is if they decide they're making a major Western push and putting it on every platform that's popular in the West.
7.) PC: See Xbox One. If it's a 3DS game there's no need to make a PC version to use for cloud streaming, and if it's a retail game instead of an MMO or f2p title, it's not a great candidate to extend into mainland Asia.
8.) Vita: I left this one until now since I think it's an interesting option to discuss, but also probably the most controversial. With the Vita, we're frankly looking at a system that's likely to be the last PlayStation handheld, especially anything beyond a device that streams PlayStation Now or whatever. Putting the game on Vita doesn't build you an audience you can capitalize on with the Vita 2. It's also a handheld, and one that's definitely not going to be able to play local multiplayer with the 3DS version. With home consoles, people can at least find other people to play with online and have to be in their house anyway. If they have the Vita version of a co-op game, and some kids they meet on the train or the after school study center have the 3DS version, they get left out. Since this a product line with a ticking death clock, Sony is also much more likely to be interested in convincing them to get the game on PS4 if they can only convince them to add one platform. Q2 2016 or alter is also a really long time from now, and even though the Vita's health has improved, I'm unsure how much life it has left in it. Once developers start getting ready for the 4DS or adopt the PS4, along with the continuing flight to mobile, this lowers the potential Vita developer base (barring Vita/4DS or Vita/mobile cross-platform games) as time goes on. On top of all of this, the Vita's biggest hits haven't sold all that much, especially in terms of what a Dragon Quest games sell. Overall, like the PS3, I don't see this happening unless the goal is to get it on as many platforms as humanly possible.
9.) Wii 3: I don't feel comfortable enough on determining when this is releasing to really speak to it with much accuracy. I will note that Nintendo has implied that they're going to make it much easier to move 4DS games to Wii 3 and vice-versa (perhaps to the point they both run an iOS/Android like OS that makes what's literally the same game run on both platforms), so if there's a 4DS version, there's obviously a potential there. Will the platform be out in a time frame that makes it relevant to the discussion? I don't know.
10.) 360/Wii: These are dead platforms.
11.) iOS/Android: These were largely ruled out for an initial release, but I do want to note they're almost assuredly coming 2-3 years or so down the road in case anyone skipped the other parts of the post. See the entire series getting ported to mobile sans DQIX for an explanation of why.
new releases {2014.07.17}
[3DS] Gundam Tri Age SP <TBL> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥6.145)
[3DS] Hoppechan: Minna de Odekake! Waku Waku Hoppe Land!! <ACT> (Nippon Columbia) (¥5.184)
[3DS] Hamatora: Look at Smoking World <RPG> (FuRyu) (¥6.458)
[PSV] Oreshika: Tainted Bloodlines # <RPG> (Sony Computer Entertainment) (¥6.264)
[PSV] Oreshika: Tainted Bloodlines [Limited Edition] <RPG> (Sony Computer Entertainment) (¥8.424)
[PSV] Soukai Buccaneers! # <ADV> (Future Tech Lab) (¥6.264)
[PSV] Soukai Buccaneers! [Limited Edition] <ADV> (Future Tech Lab) (¥7.776)
[PSV] Sorayume <ADV> (Takuyo) (¥5.400)
[WIU] Wii Sports Club <SPT> (Nintendo) (¥3.996)
[PS4] Murdered: Soul Suspect <ADV> (Square Enix) (¥8.424)
[PS3] Atelier Shallie: Alchemists of the Dusk Sea # <RPG> (Gust) (¥7.344)
[PS3] Atelier Shallie: Alchemists of the Dusk Sea [Premium Box] <RPG> (Gust) (¥10.584)
[PS3] Murdered: Soul Suspect <ADV> (Square Enix) (¥8.424)
[3DS] Gundam Tri Age SP <TBL> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥6.145)
[3DS] Hoppechan: Minna de Odekake! Waku Waku Hoppe Land!! <ACT> (Nippon Columbia) (¥5.184)
[3DS] Hamatora: Look at Smoking World <RPG> (FuRyu) (¥6.458)
[PSV] Oreshika: Tainted Bloodlines # <RPG> (Sony Computer Entertainment) (¥6.264)
[PSV] Oreshika: Tainted Bloodlines [Limited Edition] <RPG> (Sony Computer Entertainment) (¥8.424)
[PSV] Soukai Buccaneers! # <ADV> (Future Tech Lab) (¥6.264)
[PSV] Soukai Buccaneers! [Limited Edition] <ADV> (Future Tech Lab) (¥7.776)
[PSV] Sorayume <ADV> (Takuyo) (¥5.400)
[WIU] Wii Sports Club <SPT> (Nintendo) (¥3.996)
[PS4] Murdered: Soul Suspect <ADV> (Square Enix) (¥8.424)
[PS3] Atelier Shallie: Alchemists of the Dusk Sea # <RPG> (Gust) (¥7.344)
[PS3] Atelier Shallie: Alchemists of the Dusk Sea [Premium Box] <RPG> (Gust) (¥10.584)
[PS3] Murdered: Soul Suspect <ADV> (Square Enix) (¥8.424)
Actually that is the unknown that might be the key to why a console DQXI could be viable. A good scalable engine on Wii U with hidden switches for higher resolution or different frame rates means they could keep making games for the Wii U that will also run on the next gen handheld (which I like to call DSU and would be close or equal to Wii U in power) and the next stationary console (which would probably come without the gamepad but will support it if you have one from Wii U or buy one separately, like the remotes on Wii U) and at the same time take advantage of the higher power those platforms might have.
It could also mean by the time they have such an engine ready they could start releasing games that will become better on the next hardware, giving that an instant library. Add forward compatibility to the formula of BC. The new hardware could be powerful enough that new games optimized for it should be quite ahead of Wii U visually but still also run on it and be playable.
That would approach the models on PC, Android and iOS but also be a natural evolution of their BC strategy.
Moor-Angol
Banned
P4G did not appear in any Famitsu chart recently, but they did not stop to track it
same for Terraria, which is constantly on M-C charts
you are missing Road's point
Sammy Samusu
Member
I don't see stock problems for Youkai Watch 2 this weekend in my area (Ikebukuro).
Main Bic Camera Shop:
Yamada Denki (it's written stock available):
Awesome!
Question. When do we expect that Dragon Quest XI greenlighted, and what was the perception of the systems at the time?
For the 3DS and 4DS it doesn't really matter too much. Nor for the Vita, since Dragon Quest benefits from a big userbase and the Vita was never poised to dethrone the DS line. But the Wii U and PS4 have both done surprisingly poorly, so I could imagine that a game could start development on either based on overly optimistic predictions.
Of course, I'm assuming that the game isn't likely to have switched platforms. Maybe that's wrong. Moving to a multiplatform approach may make sense if the original platform no longer appears to be as viable.
For the 3DS and 4DS it doesn't really matter too much. Nor for the Vita, since Dragon Quest benefits from a big userbase and the Vita was never poised to dethrone the DS line. But the Wii U and PS4 have both done surprisingly poorly, so I could imagine that a game could start development on either based on overly optimistic predictions.
Of course, I'm assuming that the game isn't likely to have switched platforms. Maybe that's wrong. Moving to a multiplatform approach may make sense if the original platform no longer appears to be as viable.
Parakeetman
No one wants a throne you've been sitting on!
Its thanks to posts like these usually by Nirolak that I even still bother to look in the sales threads.
That's a good question. People keep saying DQ goes to the platform with the best install base but actually it is sufficient install base and the whole issue arose when the N64 failed to win the Japanese market. Enix was one of the few publishers to support the N64 at first (with minor franchises) and not the PS and only when it became clear that the PS had become the successor to the SFC in the customer's mind they had to follow Square's example and switch from two gens with Nintendo to Sony.
After the poor early PS3 sales, the handheld domination and the multiplayer boom they went back to Nintendo. One mainline game for the DS, one mainline for the Wii and one early commitment, clearly because of cross gen, to the Wii successor. All remakes and spin off also went to Wii and DS.
Nintendo had a strategy to get handheld gamers back to the big screen with the Wii U (which didn't particularly work that well so far) but maybe it was enough to convince SE to keep going with their earlier commitment? The PS4 doing badly in Japan isn't at all unexpected either. There was no strong reason to go back to Sony for DQ all of a sudden.
The only real reason I see for putting DQXI on PS4 is to benefit FFXV and KH3. But after the PS2 SE stopped putting FF and DQ on the same platforms. DQ kept supporting the platforms with actually high install bases after waiting it out, FF made very early commitments to PS3 and PS4. DQX for Wii U on the other hand, announced together with the Wii version, also shows SE had some faith the Wii U would meet similar success as the Wii.
In either case those early commitments were due to expected performances but also to approaches to design (high end graphics versus cel shaded visuals) and target markets (FF relies more on the Western market, DQ more on the Japanese one).
So I consider it very likely that DQXI started as a Wii U title and they now have to make a decision in regards to how they can still reach their targets. The situation is by far not as clear as PS versus N64, where the N64 was late and couldn't catch up with the PS that had gathered all significant 3rd party support by that point.
Currently 3rd party support (apart from mobile) is on the 3DS and the PS3. If you want to play the remaining key PS3 exclusives you need to keep your console even if you buy a PS4. That isn't helping the PS4 at all. Cross gen is a two sided sword, of course it allows people to upgrade but if you also want to play Tales, you definitely still need a PS3 and not everyone wants to have to keep too many consoles. This only slows PS4 adoption down, giving Nintendo time.
On the other hand, if Nintendo can really merge their handheld and console platforms, 3DS 3rd party support could turn into general Nintendo support. The 3DS already is inheriting some PSP franchises, and it got multiplatform releases with PS3. Mid to late Wii U support could be early next gen handheld support.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
This whole console thing started due to Hori saying he wanted to play DQ on a big screen right?
That and DQ being on many different platforms. I expect a 3DS SKU but what about the supposed console version.
I don't see PS3 being a valid choice in 2016 especially since I feel the main reason SE would want DQ on consoles is for as greater Western appeal. What other reason would there be?
That leaves PS4 and WiiU.
Both of them are doing horribly in Japan but one is doing extremely well in the West.
The more I think about it the weirder a console DQ sounds. The series has got the vast majority of sales in Japan and so a console sku won't mean much. The series has never made a big impact in the West either. Unless SE believes they can make DQ notably more successful in the West I don't see why they would pursue such a thing.
Anyway whatever it is we should hear it soon. DQ games get announced really early and its surprising this one hasn't.
That and DQ being on many different platforms. I expect a 3DS SKU but what about the supposed console version.
I don't see PS3 being a valid choice in 2016 especially since I feel the main reason SE would want DQ on consoles is for as greater Western appeal. What other reason would there be?
That leaves PS4 and WiiU.
Both of them are doing horribly in Japan but one is doing extremely well in the West.
The more I think about it the weirder a console DQ sounds. The series has got the vast majority of sales in Japan and so a console sku won't mean much. The series has never made a big impact in the West either. Unless SE believes they can make DQ notably more successful in the West I don't see why they would pursue such a thing.
Anyway whatever it is we should hear it soon. DQ games get announced really early and its surprising this one hasn't.
jeremy1456
Junior Member
Without Nintendo's advertising help I doubt the next Dragon Quest would sell well in the West.
Without Nintendo publishing it's doubtful it would even be released outside of Japan anyway.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
DQ 7 was localised.
DQ 8 was localised and was also quite the success.
Meanwhile DQ X has not been localised.
Its SE's decision whether they want these games localised unfortunately and the success is not derived from Nintendo's marketing but marketing in general.