lovely topic lately, thanks everyone.my only critics to the last posts is that nobody is giving my a optimistic interpretation of future nintendo outlook
I'm forever optimistic
as I own a large amount of shares
-
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Media Create Sales: Week 19, 2015 (May 4 - May 10)
- Thread starter hiska-kun
- Start date
I'm forever optimistic
really?!great, a user that can legitemely rant about them announcing metroid at e3 instead of skylander x amiibo
really?!great, a user that can legitemely rant about them announcing metroid at e3 instead of skylander x amiibo
I don't own that much, haha. And I doubt they'd let some random college kid into an investors meeting.
I don't own that much, haha. And I doubt they'd let some random college kid into an investors meeting.
Don't worry sir, Tanner will drive the revolution.
The current western console market still consists of a very large portion of casual gamers mainly playing games like Fifa or Madden and not a lot more. Give it time and they´ll get a sufficient experience on smartphones or a streaming service for new TVs maybe even from EA themselves. Something like a wireless video connection between smartphones and TVs is also just a matter of time.
According to the digital cameras/smartphone analogies, cellphones started to have cameras since 2000, if I had to make a comparison with games on smartphones, I would put the situation of its gaming capabilities to be around the level of how cameras were implemented in smartphones in 2005, sufficient for a snapshot but not a lot more, while nowadays people start to use them as a substitute for a videocam.
According to the digital cameras/smartphone analogies, cellphones started to have cameras since 2000, if I had to make a comparison with games on smartphones, I would put the situation of its gaming capabilities to be around the level of how cameras were implemented in smartphones in 2005, sufficient for a snapshot but not a lot more, while nowadays people start to use them as a substitute for a videocam.
I also own shares of Sony! I should bring about the revolution!
Microsoft is too expensive.
Yes, I do enjoy good discussions haha
Thanks,
Yeh, as someone who works in the Mobile Telecommunications industry it's really amazing to see just how the landscape has changed over the past 15 years. If you told Nikon that mobile was a threat to the camera industry before 2000 they would have laughed in your face. After all the camera industry growth was doubling almost every decade and the camera companies at the time were very profitable.
But what happened, well mobile camera came along and now there were 1.75 billion camera phones sold in 2014 compared to just 100 million dedicated camera devices. We are now taking more than 1 trillion pictures per year with the overwhelming majority coming from camera phones (even though dedicated camera users usually take more photos over device lifetime).
And look at what happened to the dedicated camera industry after that, back in 2000 for example, the biggest camera brands were of course Canon, Kodak, Nikon, Polaroid, Minolta and Konica.
Now the biggest camera brands are Nokia, Samsung and Apple, all because of smartphones. In fact Minolta and Konica have now gone out of business, Kodak went bankrupt, Polaroid went bankrupt twice and Canon and Nikon have had to radically change their busines to focus on the niche professional camera market.
So really mobile has taken over camera, that was a very drastic and quick shift. With gaming mobile is taking more and more of the pie and will certainly take over traditional console revenue in the next few years.
But it's not as drastic as the camera industry crisis. But we will see Sony and Microsoft react by focusing more on core gamer but also trying to converge with mobile to provide cross platform experiences to cater to both core and casual. Developers will focus on creating big selling titles (generally) and the lower budget, quick buck games will go to mobile more.
So console is far from dying, but its changing and the industry as a whole certainly isn't as big or the same as it was 10 years ago.
To put some numbers here. Camera industry is 95% mobile, game industry is only around 40% mobile at the moment.
Sorry for my English.
Good post. Another factor which might accelerate things is that the younger generation is growing on mobiles. What are the demographics on PS4 and XBO? We know WiiU owners are mostly men above 20-25. Are kids below 10 even playing HD consoles nowadays? Will they when they get older? If not, the home console market is going to disappear. Sales of the PS4 are strong now, but it's mainly because 1) it had a low price at launch, 2) Console gamers were exhausted of the longer than usual previous generation and 3) It has virtually no competition. In a word, it's front loaded and isn't a sign of good health in the long term. That article explains it quite well :
http://www.forbes.com/sites/markrogowsky/2014/08/21/dear-sony-heres-why-so-many-people-are-buying-the-ps4/
Thanks.
I too agree with the front loaded argument. Not to the same extent as "consoles are doomed" people but lets face it, we're not going to see 280m+ consoles sold this generation and the PS4 has seen amazing sales early on but isn't sustaining that at this point in time.
Consoles still have their customers and this gen has and will see great titles and software sales. Hardware sales are also fairly good for PS4 and X1 and are tracking higher than 360 and PS3 at the same time. Of course when you add Wii and Wii U then they are tracking behind last gen.
Here is my forecast through end of 2019:
Moor-Angol
Banned
as it happened with PD&SMB ?
on comgnet preorders were not so high and when I pointed it out everyone here laughed in my face
he made a prediction about 100k on launch week and 200k LTD, I think it's a bit overestimated considering : 1- it's a new IP, 2- it's on a system which has some problems, 3- younger audience is interested in western games ?
that's' all, if Splatoon sells well good for N, I'm not here to persuade people I'm right, I'm just explaining my feelings about this game, and the recent spike maybe has been made due to the Direct, yesterday it got just 1 point and 43pt two weeks before the release is not properly something targeted to a 100k debut
the only thing I'm sure is that Nintendo is certainly promoting Splatoon much more than they did with Xenoblade
I just mean that the control limitations will preclude a great number of popular games/genres from appearing on mobile, and as a large market for those genres still exists pubs/devs will still cater for it. And i disagree i think mobile would love to be able to replicate some console experiences, which is why you see apple clearly investigating into helping that happen with their joystick patent.
Moor-Angol
Banned
I don't take COMG as a reference for the market
so take amazon (just an online shop and even not tracked by nor Enterbrain nor M-C) as reference, not my problem....
First Day Sell-Through {2015.05.14}
Slow week
[PS4] Final Fantasy X/X-2 HD Remaster <Final Fantasy X Final Fantasy X-2> <RPG> (Square Enix) (¥7.344) - 40%
[PS4] Borderlands: The Handsome Collection <Borderlands 2 Borderlands: The Pre-Sequel!> <RPG> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) (¥6.804) - 50-60%
Funassyi Land (bomba Land)
[3DS] Code Name: S.T.E.A.M. <ACT> (Nintendo) (¥5.076)
Slow week
[PS4] Final Fantasy X/X-2 HD Remaster <Final Fantasy X Final Fantasy X-2> <RPG> (Square Enix) (¥7.344) - 40%
[PS4] Borderlands: The Handsome Collection <Borderlands 2 Borderlands: The Pre-Sequel!> <RPG> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) (¥6.804) - 50-60%
Funassyi Land (bomba Land)
[3DS] Code Name: S.T.E.A.M. <ACT> (Nintendo) (¥5.076)
theprodigy
Member
IS should have made a new Advance Wars, it would sell better too
I still remember we all got hyped when someone tweeted Valkyrie Chronicle-esque game coming from Intelligent Systems, then saw the art style and..
And I just saw the blog and he mentions about it, but oh boy..
Thanks.
I too agree with the front loaded argument. Not to the same extent as "consoles are doomed" people but lets face it, we're not going to see 280m+ consoles sold this generation and the PS4 has seen amazing sales early on but isn't sustaining that at this point in time.
Consoles still have their customers and this gen has and will see great titles and software sales. Hardware sales are also fairly good for PS4 and X1 and are tracking higher than 360 and PS3 at the same time. Of course when you add Wii and Wii U then they are tracking behind last gen.
Here is my forecast through end of 2019:
i think we're staring a transition in the face. tumbling down towards the generation of the n64/psx/saturn is not a good result. hell, just doing the same as last gen would only be kind of okay. i'm going to kind of add my thoughts from another thread where they were buried right and proper.
in the past, japan's been sort of the kingmaker. it was true of nes, the snes, the psx, the ps2, the ds, and the wii in their respective spaces. now all that's left is honestly just the 3ds, but the transition to mobile and digital services is real. sega and konami are going all in on the mobile scene (well, aside from atlus, i guess). capcom and square enix are trying to balance mobile success with console success but tilting towards mobile. koei tecmo and bandai namco are kind of the only big third-party japanese companies in the dedicated (i hesitate to use 'traditional' these days) space. everything else are teeny-tiny publishers that are trying to strike out on nintendo (furyu, masaya) or stragglers attempting to support the nearly-gone sony environment in japan with hopes they can match japanese sales worldwide (idea factory, nis).
now you have nintendo going in on mobile, and they're really the only first-party to be making a big deal about mobile from an internal development standpoint. the generation starting with nx, we'll probably be left with hardware doing 13-16m units, and maybe sony can squeak out about 4m with ps5 (a marked decrease from the 34-35m units of hardware that might be sold in the current generation).
in the us, japanese companies aren't really finding that much success on playstation anymore either. it's on steam. sega matched ps3 sales of valkyria chronicles with a port that came years later, with no inventory to manage, and platform and manufacturing costs rolled into valve's 30%. beyond that, idea factory is finding success on this platform. so is nihon falcom.
and this has an effect on the console market in the us and europe too. less variety leads to a smaller userbase, which we are very clearly seeing now. this is kind of nice in the short-term for for bigger publishers wanting a predictable userbase, but bad for growth and eventually, budgets and roi. even now, western studios are also preparing their exits from the space. wb has wb play, ea has origin and ea access, ubisoft has their own thing too.
for people who are fans of dedicated hardware, i think they can hope on two things. one, a piece of hardware comes from nowhere and redefines the space in a way that you have to make games for it. unfortunately, hardware makers seem increasingly adverse to this level of thinking, tepidly rolling out ideas in the forms of peripherals and never giving them the budget and faith they need to properly get off the ground. the other option is that as dedicated hardware fades, it will be kept around as an option for hobbyists. you can see it happening already with retro vgs.
No kidding. Made the game look really ugly and cheap.
IS should have made a new Advance Wars, it would sell better too
I can understand not wanting to make the same type of game over and over again, but... I'm a selfish consumer, and I want another Advance Wars.
RampagingSoul
Member
Really sucks too as I loved the game. One of the most underrated games of the year so far in my opinion. It reminded me of The Wonderful 101, a game with some flaws, but as an overall game, I really enjoyed and loved it. It was just a really great experience for me personally.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
Splatoon 200k opening week confirmed.
i'd honestly be surprised if this wasn't the way they take things. i have to assume that ds on wii u is practice for next-gen when they'll be putting ds/3ds games on devices with one screen. imagine the next handheld is slightly bigger than a vita, but smaller than a gamepad, and using it with your home console gets you the full library. they could sell the console on its own, and the handheld on its own, but you could use them together like the wii u with its gamepad (which would allow for wii u backwards compatability too).
Exactly how I see it happening.
Plus Nintendo on failure (GC&Wii U) likes to innovate using what they already spent R&D investments on which led to the Wii and potentially the NX. Plus the closure of Club Nintendo and all of Iwata's comments cement a OS or non-hardware tied account systems.
1st Course
Member
Nippon Ichi FY 2014/2015 results (April 1, 2014 - March 31, 2015)
http://www.nippon1.co.jp/news/pdf/2015/20150515_2.pdf
Overall (millions of yen):
Revenue: 3,672 (+0.1%)
Operating income: 139 (-75.9%)
Net income: 19 (-95.9%)
Divisional breakdown in millions of yen > revenue (operating income)
- Packaged business: 2,662 (-81)
- Online business: 820 (+486)
- License business: 55 (+40)
- Other business: 133 (-32)
- Adjustments: 0 (-273)
Packaged business made a loss of 81 million yen but strong performance from online business made up for it.
http://www.nippon1.co.jp/news/pdf/2015/20150515_2.pdf
Overall (millions of yen):
Revenue: 3,672 (+0.1%)
Operating income: 139 (-75.9%)
Net income: 19 (-95.9%)
Divisional breakdown in millions of yen > revenue (operating income)
- Packaged business: 2,662 (-81)
- Online business: 820 (+486)
- License business: 55 (+40)
- Other business: 133 (-32)
- Adjustments: 0 (-273)
Packaged business made a loss of 81 million yen but strong performance from online business made up for it.
but in this case, wouldnt' somehow admit to be abandoning the "_put segment here_" market?
I mean, doing that approach would make less significant buy/purchase/own both hw product/consoles, considering the "90% shared" library. That would probably lead into a dead "Wii U 2" product in Japan, where the home consoles are way weaker than the portables, and to a dead "4DS" product in the West, for opposite reasons.
Their comment of "creating a new concept product for both West and Japan taking into consideration the different approaches of both markets, could imply that actually this assumption is right, but I think that they would still spend almost the same money in R&D and production for 2 products, while the results in terms of hw purhcase could lead to an even smaller volume for the home in Japan and for the portable in the West, and not to an increase of market share.
nis america had a net income of $1.1m. it seems they make up 64% of all revenue for the company.
nis japan's plans for the new year:
-keep making new intellectual properties
-witch and the hundred knight ps4
-start supporting steam
-develop for mobile
-expand more overseas
-improve/strengthen relationship with nisa
-improve/strengthen human resources and management
Well if we look at this approach from a WW perspective (which we should), theoretically wouldn't this lead to a potential increase in WW hardware if we consider the NX as an OS?
And if they have teams to focus on more games rather than the typical Mario handheld vs console game, potentially lead to more software sales and diversity? And a Mario team could still release a new product every two years.
It's a big risk but it potentially could be a hit.
OMG! What a cutie!
2800yen for one of those is even cheaper than I expected, coming from Nintendo.
Shh, don't say it too loud! xD
BTW, 200k is a little bit exaggerated, but over 100k or even 120k it's plausible.
To me it seems like this move would basically be giving people the choice of what appeals more to them and by not having to make separate games for each console will probably free them up to do more on that side. At this point I think each part of the world has picked their sides when it comes to handheld, mobile, and console so it makes more sense to just look at that rather than trying to change that. If they truly pay attention to the west this time then I think it has the potential to work out decently enough for them in conjunction with their future mobile titles.
More Japanese games on PC is always a good thing.
Comgnet retail store chain: preorders stats / comparisons, as of May 15th, 2015.
[3DS] Hatsune Miku: Project Mirai - 134pt + 24pt = 158pt*
[PSV] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva f - 127pt*
[PS3] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva F - 134pt*
[PSV] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva F 2nd - 117pt
[PS3] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva F 2nd - 75pt
[3DS] Hatsune Miku: Project Mirai 2 - 68pt + 50pt= 118pt
[3DS] Hatsune Miku: Project Mirai Deluxe - 63pt
[PS4] The Witcher 3: The Wild Hunt - 44pt
[WiiU] Pikmin 3 - 44pt*
[WiiU] Super Mario 3D World - 22pt / < 22pt*
[WiiU] Mario Kart 8 - 141pt
[WiiU] Super Smash Bros. for Wii U - 133pt + 32pt = 165pt
[WiiU] Splatoon - 43pt
[3DS] Dragon Ball Heroes: Ultimate Mission - 69pt*
[3DS] Dragon Ball Heroes: Ultimate Mission 2 - 58pt
[3DS] Dragon Ball Z: Extreme Butoden - 30pt
* = Comg preorder pts from 2012/2013
** = Comg preorder pts up to 2010/2011
Note: Comgnet's ratio between actual sales and pts has grown overall in the past year / years, and older preorder points are not as reliable for comparisons as most recent ones, especially if they are from years and years ago
[3DS] Hatsune Miku: Project Mirai - 134pt + 24pt = 158pt*
[PSV] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva f - 127pt*
[PS3] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva F - 134pt*
[PSV] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva F 2nd - 117pt
[PS3] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva F 2nd - 75pt
[3DS] Hatsune Miku: Project Mirai 2 - 68pt + 50pt= 118pt
[3DS] Hatsune Miku: Project Mirai Deluxe - 63pt
[PS4] The Witcher 3: The Wild Hunt - 44pt
[WiiU] Pikmin 3 - 44pt*
[WiiU] Super Mario 3D World - 22pt / < 22pt*
[WiiU] Mario Kart 8 - 141pt
[WiiU] Super Smash Bros. for Wii U - 133pt + 32pt = 165pt
[WiiU] Splatoon - 43pt
[3DS] Dragon Ball Heroes: Ultimate Mission - 69pt*
[3DS] Dragon Ball Heroes: Ultimate Mission 2 - 58pt
[3DS] Dragon Ball Z: Extreme Butoden - 30pt
* = Comg preorder pts from 2012/2013
** = Comg preorder pts up to 2010/2011
Note: Comgnet's ratio between actual sales and pts has grown overall in the past year / years, and older preorder points are not as reliable for comparisons as most recent ones, especially if they are from years and years ago
Do they give any details about this?
manzo
Member
Nothing depressing about it. Were you depressed when VHS went out?
Games will continue to be made, and consoles won't entirely disappear.
I'd say the migration is from Blu-ray to VHS when gaming goes to mobile. It's not transition, it's a goddamn degrade.
But such is life.
Tizoc
Member
I honestly wouldn't mind them releasing the Disgaea series starting from the first game. I liked it when I played it on PS2, but never bothered with any other ver. or rerelease of it over the past decade.
I'll be there Day 1 for Disgaea 1 if it is priced right.
Monthly Hardware Sales Media Create
*5 weeks for January and April
Code:
+-------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
| Month | 3DS | PSV | PS4 | WiiU | PS3 | XB One | Total |
+-------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
|January| 326.739| 125.809| 107.999| 63.623| 48.930| 1.981| 675.081|
| Feb. | 168.806| 82.453| 111.015| 26.200| 27.845| 2.513| 418.832|
| March | 125.971| 89.763| 159.420| 28.726| 27.870| 1.346| 433.096|
| April | 130.845| 89.803| 99.936| 50.572| 22.343| 1.852| 395.311|
| May | | | | | | | |
| June | | | | | | | |
| July | | | | | | | |
| August| | | | | | | |
| Sept. | | | | | | | |
|October| | | | | | | |
| Nov. | | | | | | | |
| Dic. | | | | | | | |
+-------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
| Total | 752.361| 387.828| 478.370| 169.121| 126.988| 7.692| 1.922.360|
+-------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+----------+*5 weeks for January and April
from what i can gather, they plan on taking what they've learned with app/mobile development and distribution to try and apply it to steam. i expect this would fall way more on the distribution side. they specifically mention overseas markets too, so i think they recognize this as a move mostly for nis america.
Read my lips, Nippon Ichi: DISGAEA DISGAEA DISGAEA DISGAEA.
You got me? NO OTHER THINGS UNTIL YOU DO THE ABOVE.
"But we have a Cladu--"
NO *slap* Wrong. That's not what people want, give them Disgaea on PC and then you can start to make your quirky other IP's for the platform.
Interesting. Hopefully this means they've learnt from CladunX2's flop on Steam. They released that on Steam with little fanfare, gave it zero post release support, and also did nothing to ensure it would be promoted by Steam (they put it on sale only once). Those kind of mistakes are exactly the kind of thing a mobile publisher should know to avoid.
manipulate
Member
There's definitely a big loss in going from traditional -> mobile. I'm really hoping there's some kind of hardware gimmick holding it down for dedicated devices for next gen.
Kresnik258
Member
Hm. Nice to see NISA doing so well for them.
Interested to see where they go with some of these. Proper Steam support is long overdue.
disgaea is a big project. i imagine they'll test the waters a bit with games that are already download only (like legasista or battle princess arcadias or the firefly diary) so they can learn from their mistakes. after that, they'll probably apply it to disgaea. since disgaea 5 is a game set for western markets this fiscal year, i wouldn't expect disgaea on steam until 2016 at the earliest.
I am almost 100% certain this is due to DR money. If only Spike had published it themselves and gotten all the profits... maybe there'd be enough money for a new VLR game...
It ain't Disgaea. Anihawk guessed right with Firely Diary. Which doesn't strike me as a good first choice, because why release an indie-style puzzle platformer on a market flooded with indie platformers?
Behold.
It ain't Disgaea. Anihawk guessed right with Firely Diary. Which doesn't strike me as a good first choice, because why release an indie-style puzzle platformer on a market flooded with indie platformers?
damn i'm good
spike chunsoft:
1. doesn't care about us game sales
2. makes money localizing us games for japan
3. is making zero escape 3 (well nothing official, but this is basically the worst-kept secret thanks to uchikoshi)
danganronpa profit was mostly for danganronpa 2. demon gaze also helped and d4 vit probably did too. nis america was sort of scrapping last year. they had a lot of european titles with atlus and other odds and ends like the ps3 collections, plus they started handling limited editions for gust titles again. in addition to that, they had love live, the toradora dub, and cardcaptor sakura as anime, which were bigger in profile than previous anime they've done. this year so far, it's a lot more scaled back. far fewer games on the horizon, but they're bigger titles.
i doubt they expect much from it. it's a small effort that they probably made money on already. it seems more like an easier way to get used to the process than to set up shop and expect big things.
now imagine disgaea on steam - community-voted-on weapons and maps, trading cards as random drops in item worlds, the ability to mod sprites, select control schemes and maybe even gameplay styles (if it's disgaea 1 maybe there's a classic mode and maybe there's a mode that plays like d5). that's the sort of thing you don't want to screw up.
If an eventual Disgaea port gets any of those features apart from moddable sprites and multiple control schemes I'd be very shocked
I feel the whole 'testing the waters' idea is not very useful on a platform with thousands of games because it's quite possible your game will bomb badly enough that you actually don't get much feedback. A better idea would be to follow Ghostlight and Idea Factory and have a reasonably large closed beta before release.
GoonerTRON
Banned
1 PS4 game by a nose...