Probably not big but could be bigger than STEAM and FFX-X2 HD PS4 when you think about it ahah.
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Media Create Sales: Week 19, 2015 (May 4 - May 10)
- Thread starter hiska-kun
- Start date
Probably not big but could be bigger than STEAM and FFX-X2 HD PS4 when you think about it ahah.
theprodigy
Member
no, but it will do better than STEAM lol
but the real point is, May release schedule is super soft
As big as some of those titles sörine listed. It's doing ok on the COMG charts (not always reliable I know).
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
So... the pick me ups for this year probably are all in the summer then?
Yokai Watch Busters, Fire Emblem If, DQ8 3DS, & Rhythm Heaven?
By Media Create, Week 19 hardware and software YTDs:
2010: 3,242,184 / 21,411,899
2011: 3,196,727 / 17,111,000
2012: 3,135,717 / 16,930,000
2013: 3,048,871 / 17,347,000
2014: 2,507,319 / 15,106,000
2015: 1,998,057 / 12,731,000
"Next gen doesn't start until we say it does"
Clearly that applies in Japan right now
So sticking to titles with ~180-200K+ debuts, here was last Summer (through end of August for our purposes):
Week 22 - Mario Kart 8
Week 23 - PersonaQ
Week 26 - Freedom Wars
Week 28 - Yokai Watch 2
This was on top of having a lot of other debuts, and before we even get to competing with that, we have to make up a 2.4 million software gap and 500K hardware gap already.
One thing, I wonder if we shouldn't do, is to look at Software per platform instead of just aggragate. Might be an interesting thing to see where (obviously the WiiU) things are lagging.
Yeah, I'm not sure it makes that much of a difference overall.
The 3DS and PS3 are the only platforms capable of moving enough software to matter at the 2.4 million unit gap level and the PS3 has had to go cross-gen with the Vita and PS4 to maintain any kind of overall impact.
The big picture to me is that things are sputtering out overall, and given the types of games that have been getting made that last few years, it's not like it's the loss of casual DS/Wii users causing this.
During the peak of the Wii/DS, Iwata always liked to talk about the virtuous cycle, where 1.) games would be made and 2.) people would buy them and enjoy them and want more games and 3.) more companies would make games (or up their output) to serve the new demand and 4.) thus the cycle repeats.
Here it's the opposite, known as a death spiral.
Was the software for the 3DS highest in 2010 and 2011?
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
That graph is quite something Niro, thanks, give us a perspective on the industry (shift).
That 7.4 million 3DS HW is most certainly not occuring especially with Japan's underperformance and recent NPD numbers.
That 7.4 million 3DS HW is most certainly not occuring especially with Japan's underperformance and recent NPD numbers.
Oh yes, in case people missed it, since we discussed it in here a few times, the New 3DS effect ran out after like two months in the US:
The end is nigh.
More seriously, I wonder if Youkai won't do some good in the west when it releases with the show. That said, its fairly obvious that Nintendo's expectations will take some serious magic to achieve. If we use the PSP as a metric and take current projection for 2015 to be close to but a few hundred thousand below 2014, then we can put NA/JPN for 3DS to:
2.8 + 2.5 = 5.3
What does the 3DS usually pull in EU?
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
It's quite something.
I think Nintendo's Operating Forecast are manageable if their mobile platform indeed takes off, and if costs reductions are maintained throughout (mostly Marketing); however, the hardware forecasts are overly optimistic. There is most certainly going to be a change in Q3 as in every fiscal year.
I'm maintaining my shares on the Nikkei but still, Q1 & Q2 will be loss leaders as they've always been these last FY, but alot rides on their mobile success, too much even.
I think Nintendo's Operating Forecast are manageable if their mobile platform indeed takes off, and if costs reductions are maintained throughout (mostly Marketing); however, the hardware forecasts are overly optimistic. There is most certainly going to be a change in Q3 as in every fiscal year.
I'm maintaining my shares on the Nikkei but still, Q1 & Q2 will be loss leaders as they've always been these last FY, but alot rides on their mobile success, too much even.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Is there evidence that any previously released software has done much to bolster a late-life console's hardware sales? How did Smash boost 3DS sales (or slow the decline of them)? Xenoblade 3DS? Wouldn't we assume that Yokai Watch is appealing to similar demographics as already successful software like Pokemon, and so would do well even if it doesn't drive hardware sales?
Well obviously Pokémon is the ultimate example but it's also probably the only one and it was twenty years ago,,,
Actually, Nintendo forecasted 7,6 millions, and we should remember we're talking about shipments (example: they could sell 7,1 millions, but then ship additional 500,000 units WW, which would be a good amount of overshipment compared to the overall sales, the one that doesn't put you in a situation where you can't ship more units after that while giving stores units for upcoming demand).
Honestly, it's 1.4 millions lower than most recent FY, and 1.13 millions lower than the actual result...I'd say it depends. I don't think it's impossible, honestly. If April NPD represents what the demand will be for the rest of the FY in the West (not that different from FY2014, but 10-20k per month higher/on par with last year), then it would help. Without new hardware being launched, Japan will surely go down in the FY. Still, all of this depends on what they'll release this Holiday.
There's a specific part of the latest Q&A that hit me
So, summing a bit
1) Iwata believes that there's untapped potential to expand the userbase in Japan towards female audience, from children to even seniors.
2) In the West, 3DS has room for growth, according to Iwata. And, in his opinion, New 3DS's initial reception shows that there is indeed that room with "good software and hardware offerings".
3) "Therefore, please consider our sales units forecast to be based on not what we believe is the maximum market potential but rather sufficiently attainable targets"
So, for females in Japan, Style Savvy 3 just released, and I suppose Animal Crossing: Happy Home Designer is another title that (in their intention) should try to appeal more to the female audience. That one will be interesting to follow, starting from how it'll be sold (it could perfectly be a F2P where the "IAP"s are the cards...what if it's preinstalled in New 3DSes with no additional price, since it's F2P?). Still, I don't know if they can hit their target, but I'm wondering what do they have as upcoming first party titles that make them think that 7,6 millions is not just the maximum result possible, but something that shouldn't be that hard to reach? This means that there is more than what we're seeing right now, probably quite a bit more, even for the West (considering what said about the growth). I mean, let's look at the current first party lineup...the only first party upcoming title after Fire Emblem in Japan is...yep, Animal Crossing Happy Home Designer. And it's a Summer release in Japan, unlike US/Europe (where it's Fall). So, right now, Nintendo has literally nothing for the end of the year in Japan. Which sounds quite strange.
Since these forecasts are (in their own opinion) conservative, I wonder what upcoming titles / initiatives (in their own opinion, again) will help the console to reach forecasts considered "attainable", not the maximum potential possible, since they missed the mark in the past few years (quite hard till 2013, on a lower level in 2014). If they say that those forecasts are not a maximum for them, it means that there are things coming that, they believe, will help them reach those results. In the same way the past year had an higher forecast than what shown by actual sales WW considered "conservative", thus not a maximum, meaning that they had things that made them believe those results could have been achievable and reasonable. Yep, in the end they had to review 3DS's predictions again, but they had something that, in their mind, would have helped in reaching those (New 3DS and Pokémon). The discussion, then, should be: What do they have this time to make them think that 7,6 millions in this FY are possible?
Honestly, it's 1.4 millions lower than most recent FY, and 1.13 millions lower than the actual result...I'd say it depends. I don't think it's impossible, honestly. If April NPD represents what the demand will be for the rest of the FY in the West (not that different from FY2014, but 10-20k per month higher/on par with last year), then it would help. Without new hardware being launched, Japan will surely go down in the FY. Still, all of this depends on what they'll release this Holiday.
There's a specific part of the latest Q&A that hit me
So, summing a bit
1) Iwata believes that there's untapped potential to expand the userbase in Japan towards female audience, from children to even seniors.
2) In the West, 3DS has room for growth, according to Iwata. And, in his opinion, New 3DS's initial reception shows that there is indeed that room with "good software and hardware offerings".
3) "Therefore, please consider our sales units forecast to be based on not what we believe is the maximum market potential but rather sufficiently attainable targets"
So, for females in Japan, Style Savvy 3 just released, and I suppose Animal Crossing: Happy Home Designer is another title that (in their intention) should try to appeal more to the female audience. That one will be interesting to follow, starting from how it'll be sold (it could perfectly be a F2P where the "IAP"s are the cards...what if it's preinstalled in New 3DSes with no additional price, since it's F2P?). Still, I don't know if they can hit their target, but I'm wondering what do they have as upcoming first party titles that make them think that 7,6 millions is not just the maximum result possible, but something that shouldn't be that hard to reach? This means that there is more than what we're seeing right now, probably quite a bit more, even for the West (considering what said about the growth). I mean, let's look at the current first party lineup...the only first party upcoming title after Fire Emblem in Japan is...yep, Animal Crossing Happy Home Designer. And it's a Summer release in Japan, unlike US/Europe (where it's Fall). So, right now, Nintendo has literally nothing for the end of the year in Japan. Which sounds quite strange.
Since these forecasts are (in their own opinion) conservative, I wonder what upcoming titles / initiatives (in their own opinion, again) will help the console to reach forecasts considered "attainable", not the maximum potential possible, since they missed the mark in the past few years (quite hard till 2013, on a lower level in 2014). If they say that those forecasts are not a maximum for them, it means that there are things coming that, they believe, will help them reach those results. In the same way the past year had an higher forecast than what shown by actual sales WW considered "conservative", thus not a maximum, meaning that they had things that made them believe those results could have been achievable and reasonable. Yep, in the end they had to review 3DS's predictions again, but they had something that, in their mind, would have helped in reaching those (New 3DS and Pokémon). The discussion, then, should be: What do they have this time to make them think that 7,6 millions in this FY are possible?
theprodigy
Member
Nintendo forecasts have almost always aimed too high lately, they should take a page from Sony and just put low forecasts so they don't have to constantly revise them downward
edit: regarding Japan software sales, even if the summer makes up part of the gap there's Pokemon/MH4U/YW2.5/Smash 4 later from last year
edit: regarding Japan software sales, even if the summer makes up part of the gap there's Pokemon/MH4U/YW2.5/Smash 4 later from last year
Shoot for the stars, man. Shoot for the stars!
Even if you miss, you'll still land on the moon... or burn up in the sun.
Moor-Angol
Banned
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
Nice post Mpl. Btw, you forgot Rhythm Heaven + for 3DS in Japan at least.
Wait what the heck happened at comgnet
?[WiiU] Splatoon - 65pt (+13) on a Sunday? (Hoping it's not a typo?)
Edit: Whoops, thanks Moor.
Moor-Angol
Banned
Nice post Mpl. Btw, you forgot Rhythm Heaven + for 3DS in Japan at least.
Wait what the heck happened at comgnet
[WiiU] Splatoon - 65pt (+13) on a Sunday? (Hoping it's not a typo?)
Tsutaya weekly ranking:
1, Puzzles & Dragons: Super Mario Edition
2, Style Savvy 3
3. Minecraft; Playstation Edition (Vita)
4. Bravely Second
5. Xenoblade Chronicles X
6. Dying Light (PS4)
7. One Piece: Pirate Warriors 3 (PS3)
8. DQX V3 (Wii)
9. Yokai Watch 2: Shinuchi
10. Sword Art Online: Lost Song
11. Yakuza 0 (PS3)
12. Pro Spirits Baseball 2015
13. Smash Bros 3DS
14. DQX v3 (Wii U)
15. Resident Evil Revelations 2 (PS3)
16. One Piece: Pirate Warriors 3 (PSV)
17. Mario Party 10
18. Tropico 5 (PS4)
19. Digimon Story: Cyber Sleuth
20. Card Buddy-Fight (3DS)
sorry for breaking your excitement, but the Tsutaya chart you posted is the old one (week ending on May 10)
the new chart comes around 10:00 in Japan (so actually less than 2 hours)
Wait what the heck happened at comgnet
Spatatatatatatatatatatatatatatatatatatatatatatatatoon happened.
COMGnet is already dead.
Nice post Mpl. Btw, you forgot Rhythm Heaven + for 3DS in Japan at least.
Wait what the heck happened at comgnet
[WiiU] Splatoon - 65pt (+13) on a Sunday? (Hoping it's not a typo?)
Tsutaya weekly ranking:
1, Puzzles & Dragons: Super Mario Edition
2, Style Savvy 3
3. Minecraft; Playstation Edition (Vita)
4. Bravely Second
5. Xenoblade Chronicles X
6. Dying Light (PS4)
7. One Piece: Pirate Warriors 3 (PS3)
8. DQX V3 (Wii)
9. Yokai Watch 2: Shinuchi
10. Sword Art Online: Lost Song
11. Yakuza 0 (PS3)
12. Pro Spirits Baseball 2015
13. Smash Bros 3DS
14. DQX v3 (Wii U)
15. Resident Evil Revelations 2 (PS3)
16. One Piece: Pirate Warriors 3 (PSV)
17. Mario Party 10
18. Tropico 5 (PS4)
19. Digimon Story: Cyber Sleuth
20. Card Buddy-Fight (3DS)
If Splatoon does well I wonder if it will have an effect on Nintendo's future marketing efforts.
Nice post Mpl. Btw, you forgot Rhythm Heaven + for 3DS in Japan at least.
Wait what the heck happened at comgnet
[WiiU] Splatoon - 65pt (+13) on a Sunday? (Hoping it's not a typo?)
When COMGnet read my comment that I didn't take them as a reference for the market, they wanted to fix that, and they adjusted their pre-orders to the reality of Japan
I told you that Spatoon will be ok in Japan. Marketing is there, interest too
unapersson
Member
By Media Create, Week 19 hardware and software YTDs:
2010: 3,242,184 / 21,411,899
2011: 3,196,727 / 17,111,000
2012: 3,135,717 / 16,930,000
2013: 3,048,871 / 17,347,000
2014: 2,507,319 / 15,106,000
2015: 1,998,057 / 12,731,000
Isn't starting the graph in the middle of the previous gen a bit misleading? It's not really comparing like with like.
Graphs are fine, but it doesn't show what you says it does as it's not starting in 2006. For all I know including older years could make it look worse, but currently all it shows is a tapering off from the mid to end of a generation and that the sales with a lower install base haven't yet caught up to the heights of the last. It's all a matter of interpretation.
Been mentioned at least once in another thread but this really is one of those rare times when you can't fault Nintendo for their marketing efforts. Its great to know that it seems to be paying off and I hope to see Nintendo continue aggressive marketing pushes with future efforts.
shinra-bansho
Member
Iwata says a lot of things.
There isn't some massive as yet untapped market of women just waiting for Style Savvy to get a dedicated handheld console. That's what Kim Kardashian: Hollywood is for.
Their forecasts have been overly optimistic for years.
There isn't some massive as yet untapped market of women just waiting for Style Savvy to get a dedicated handheld console. That's what Kim Kardashian: Hollywood is for.
Their forecasts have been overly optimistic for years.
Moor-Angol
Banned
I don't know if I don't understand more this general Splatoon excitement or the fact the comgnet didn't count until it started pushing up Splatoon preorders
Tsutaya's Ranking Week 20 2015
01./00. [PS4] Final Fantasy X/X-2 HD Remaster <Final Fantasy X Final Fantasy X-2> <RPG> (Square Enix)
02./01. [3DS] Puzzle & Dragons: Super Mario Bros. Edition <RPG> (GungHo Online Entertainment)
03./03. [PSV] Minecraft: PlayStation Vita Edition (Mojang AB)
04./04. [3DS] Bravely Second: End Layer <RPG> (Square Enix)
05./02. [3DS] Style Savvy 3: Kira Kira Code <ETC> (Nintendo)
06./06. [PS4] Dying Light <ADV> (Warner Entertainment Japan)
07./05. [WIU] Xenoblade Chronicles X <RPG> (Nintendo)
08./07. [PS3] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 3 (Bandai Namco Games)
09./09. [3DS] Yo-kai Watch 2: Shin Uchi <RPG> (Level 5)
10./10. [PSV] Sword Art Online: Lost Song (Bandai Namco Games)
11./12. [PS3] Pro Baseball Spirits 2015 (Konami)
12./08. [WII] Dragon Quest X: Inishie no Ryuu no Denshou Online <RPG> (Square Enix)
13./19. [PSV] Digimon Story: Cyber Sleuth (Bandai Namco Games)
14./16. [PSV] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 3 (Bandai Namco Games)
15./18. [PS4] Tropico 5 <SLG> (Square Enix)
16./15. [PS3] Resident Evil: Revelations 2 (Capcom)
17./00. [PS4] Borderlands: The Handsome Collection <Borderlands 2 Borderlands: The Pre-Sequel!> <RPG> (Take-Two Interactive Japan)
18./25. [3DS] Xenoblade Chronicles 3D <RPG> (Nintendo)
19./11. [PS3] Yakuza 0 (Sega)
20./22. [PSV] Pro Baseball Spirits 2015 (Konami)
20./17. [WIU] Mario Party 10 <ETC> (Nintendo)
01./00. [PS4] Final Fantasy X/X-2 HD Remaster <Final Fantasy X Final Fantasy X-2> <RPG> (Square Enix)
02./01. [3DS] Puzzle & Dragons: Super Mario Bros. Edition <RPG> (GungHo Online Entertainment)
03./03. [PSV] Minecraft: PlayStation Vita Edition (Mojang AB)
04./04. [3DS] Bravely Second: End Layer <RPG> (Square Enix)
05./02. [3DS] Style Savvy 3: Kira Kira Code <ETC> (Nintendo)
06./06. [PS4] Dying Light <ADV> (Warner Entertainment Japan)
07./05. [WIU] Xenoblade Chronicles X <RPG> (Nintendo)
08./07. [PS3] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 3 (Bandai Namco Games)
09./09. [3DS] Yo-kai Watch 2: Shin Uchi <RPG> (Level 5)
10./10. [PSV] Sword Art Online: Lost Song (Bandai Namco Games)
11./12. [PS3] Pro Baseball Spirits 2015 (Konami)
12./08. [WII] Dragon Quest X: Inishie no Ryuu no Denshou Online <RPG> (Square Enix)
13./19. [PSV] Digimon Story: Cyber Sleuth (Bandai Namco Games)
14./16. [PSV] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 3 (Bandai Namco Games)
15./18. [PS4] Tropico 5 <SLG> (Square Enix)
16./15. [PS3] Resident Evil: Revelations 2 (Capcom)
17./00. [PS4] Borderlands: The Handsome Collection <Borderlands 2 Borderlands: The Pre-Sequel!> <RPG> (Take-Two Interactive Japan)
18./25. [3DS] Xenoblade Chronicles 3D <RPG> (Nintendo)
19./11. [PS3] Yakuza 0 (Sega)
20./22. [PSV] Pro Baseball Spirits 2015 (Konami)
20./17. [WIU] Mario Party 10 <ETC> (Nintendo)
Correct, it does look worse:
famitsu.com/news/201501/06069057.html
The reason I chose what I listed was two fold though:
1.) That's the year this generation starts with the 3ds.
2.) Going back through the threads we don't actually record this data in the OP further back.
More generally however, given the Vita and 3DS are winding down, the Xbox is moribund, and the Wii U isn't far behind, I don't expect things to get better anytime soon.
theprodigy
Member
What happens, now, when we add in the million+ "free" download games (like Shuffle) on the 3DS? Would this software count or not?
I realize this is more a point of retail but with ever growing digital, I wonder how the picture actually looks like once you add in everything that is, at the end of the day, playing for the end-users attention: the great zero sum game.
How did Dragon Age: Inquisition do on comgnet? Would be a decent way to evaluate The Witcher 3's potential.
Heh, people have used comgnet to evaluate trends for a while now, if it's used reasonably you can compare games of the same genre to kind of get a faint idea how a new release is going to do.
Splatoon excitment comes from the game being in a genre Nintendo hasn't really pushed much before (too bad it's rife with dumb Nintendo-ism when it comes to online games) and the fact that they're actually giving it a decent marketing instead of throwing it out there like so many of their new IPs. So I guess people want it to do well for those reasons?
I don't know if I don't understand more this general Splatoon excitement or the fact the comgnet didn't count until it started pushing up Splatoon preorders
Heh, people have used comgnet to evaluate trends for a while now, if it's used reasonably you can compare games of the same genre to kind of get a faint idea how a new release is going to do.
Splatoon excitment comes from the game being in a genre Nintendo hasn't really pushed much before (too bad it's rife with dumb Nintendo-ism when it comes to online games) and the fact that they're actually giving it a decent marketing instead of throwing it out there like so many of their new IPs. So I guess people want it to do well for those reasons?
I think Splatoon has break out potential. They seem to have a lot riding on Mario Maker as a holiday title, which is scary.
It's the same. That's the revenue chart.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
btw is it just me, or is One Piece: Pirate Warriors 3 (on PS3) having decent legs for a Warriors game?
Oh. I see, haha, yes. F2P would be a big fat 0.
I meant more in terms of software distribution, lol.
I don't know if that is the case. The line is still up YOY, and without the N3DS the line would definitely be down YOY.
I expect the same will occur world wide, which has already happened in Japan. The N3DS prevented the system from drastic declines and basically it will flat-line for a few months.
theprodigy
Member
Splatoon's gonna match MK8/Smash's hardware selling potential?
I don't know if I don't understand more this general Splatoon excitement or the fact the comgnet didn't count until it started pushing up Splatoon preorders
I think it's more the otherwise. Now that Comgnet started to push Splatoon, some people are realizing how will debut.
In my case, I did my Splatoon prediction the weekend 9-10th May in a spanish Forum, when the TV commercials, train and stations adverts and game stores promotions started.
I said there that Splatoon is being way more marketed in Japan than Xenoblade X, and its debut should be higher and over 100k.
I didn't need to wait until comgnet showed +13 pre-orders to say that.
No, but I think that's virtually impossible for a new franchise. I think it will do about as well as possible for a new franchise, and it should outsell Pikmin 3 (which is sort of a shame because that game is awesome).
theprodigy
Member
not the point of discussion here
also what are we even defining as a breakout hit, imo selling Pikmin 3 levels (do we even know this game's LTD?) would be nowhere near a breakout hit
But didn't the DS prove this though. Not saying they can bring that audience back, but rather that there is a potential audience.
Well what would be considered a breakout hit (sales level) for this generation?
Uh the closet thing I can think of is Destiny (being a new IP and a shooter) for comparison, and it did ok.
Destiny only did ok? I thought it was by far one of the best selling games in its year. Did we ever get numbers though? Watch Dogs can be called one too, doing over 10 million.
A breakout hit on the Wii U is pretty much impossible. Splatoon doing 2 million WW would be a surprise and those numbers aren't even significant in any real way.
Well I'm specifically talking about Japan. Of course WW those games did amazing.
ah, I've been posting in different threads. Lost my head.