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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!
- Thread starter koam
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Fools idol
Member
lol
yes all my cars are paid off. I have never liked using borrowed money, esp. not for cars, even ones that are appreciating assets like the 458!tbh, all I did guys was take the money I made from my business over the years and save / invest at around %30 of my income for the last 14 years. I started with pretty much $45k of life savings - Starting young is key. My snowball started after I got my first rented home at 23. I started pretty late.. most of my wealth was generated from consistent business returns but from investing I snowballed with Tesla and Cloudflare.
if you can save 30% of your income and get 10-30% compound return on that each year you are going to be rich very quickly..
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Ellery
Member
Let us know when we find the next Tesla and Cloudflare (I remember you telling us about Cloudflare and it went up pretty significantly). It is now down again, but at the time when you talked about cloudflare I think it went up 60% after that to over 200$ or so.
Crazy times for the market. Extreme valuations, surging inflation, looks like quantitative tightening is right around the corner and other global political/natural events taking place.
Hope there will be more chances in the near future and not what I fear might happen in the next 5-10 years.
I wouldn't mind a Ferrari. I do like 458 and Roma
Crazy times for the market. Extreme valuations, surging inflation, looks like quantitative tightening is right around the corner and other global political/natural events taking place.
Hope there will be more chances in the near future and not what I fear might happen in the next 5-10 years.
I wouldn't mind a Ferrari. I do like 458 and Roma
Fools idol
Member
We're in a different world from the one we were in just at the end of Q4... the issues in Russia are compounding and creating real challenges for global food and energy supplies.
I don't know what the short term is going to give us, but I do think that China's mega caps have seen their worst of the declines. Ali baba is particularly "cheap" and absurdly so when compared to US market valuations.
If you are able, buying stocks on the native exchange is always the way to go, but I personally think fears about Baba getting delisted are just not going to happen. Russia is a small economy with very little scale beyond an over reliance on gas and oil... the sanctions there can be overcame. The US and the rest of the world is so deeply reliant on Chinese supply chains, that it would be ludicrous to sanction and risk collapsing everything.
Just my 2c. If you prefer US companies with wonderful futures, and have a long holding period, my current largest positions are (in order of %weight)
$BABA
$DE
$CDNS
$COST
$NET
I believe all of these 4 are pretty much immune to the geopolitical risk and supply chain crisis we face. If anything, deere and food production / consumer necessity clubs with loyal customers like Costco with it's dividends are a good place to weather the storm were in.
This mid term market is going to be more about capital preservation and dividends than growth. The fed is sucking liquidity out of an over inflated market, and its going to be painful for shitco's like weve seen recently get hammered.
I don't know what the short term is going to give us, but I do think that China's mega caps have seen their worst of the declines. Ali baba is particularly "cheap" and absurdly so when compared to US market valuations.
If you are able, buying stocks on the native exchange is always the way to go, but I personally think fears about Baba getting delisted are just not going to happen. Russia is a small economy with very little scale beyond an over reliance on gas and oil... the sanctions there can be overcame. The US and the rest of the world is so deeply reliant on Chinese supply chains, that it would be ludicrous to sanction and risk collapsing everything.
Just my 2c. If you prefer US companies with wonderful futures, and have a long holding period, my current largest positions are (in order of %weight)
$BABA
$DE
$CDNS
$COST
$NET
I believe all of these 4 are pretty much immune to the geopolitical risk and supply chain crisis we face. If anything, deere and food production / consumer necessity clubs with loyal customers like Costco with it's dividends are a good place to weather the storm were in.
This mid term market is going to be more about capital preservation and dividends than growth. The fed is sucking liquidity out of an over inflated market, and its going to be painful for shitco's like weve seen recently get hammered.
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StateofMajora
Banned
I started renting at 23 too. But I had basically nothing, less than 5k I think. 29 now, only have 100k worth of funds though. If I can get a very nice, paid off house while still having the same or more resources for stocks I'll feel pretty rich, personally. Hopefully in a few years if I dodge recession by pulling out at the right time.lol
tbh, all I did guys was take the money I made from my business over the years and save / invest at around %30 of my income for the last 14 years. I started with pretty much $45k of life savings - Starting young is key. My snowball started after I got my first rented home at 23. I started pretty late.. most of my wealth was generated from consistent business returns but from investing I snowballed with Tesla and Cloudflare.
if you can save 30% of your income and get 10-30% compound return on that each year you are going to be rich very quickly..
Fools idol
Member
that's it brother!
Honesty aside from my cars I live a very frugal life, I don't really care about much as long as I am sleeping well, eating well and able to enjoy time gaming and with my family. Not much money is required for that, so I can chill and live off the passive income.
Tbh with enough dedication someone on a $30-60k salary or so can compound dividend growth stocks and live off the income after maybe 6-10 years. It snowballs real quick if you keep at it
StreetsofBeige
Member
Yup. I'm similar. I only spend big money when I need to or feel it's worth it. I can eat steak dinners at a restaurant every week if I wanted to. What do I give a shit about spending an extra couple thousand dollars per year on dinner? I wouldnt even notice it. But dont see it being worth it and dont want to give restaurants big profits. Id rather just make my own food or eat some modest take out. Must be something I learned form my parents as they'd say one reason they bought shit on sale is to save money and not let them make more money off you. And they are right. I work in the industry and most of the time, when you buy shit on deal, the supplier (us) just comps them back. So the store is still making good margin. True loss leaders are rare no matter how much Walmart or Best Buy tries to convince everyone they are going broke on front page deals. Absolute BS. Our company does front page deals too and we comp them deal money. We make less profit than they do.
Biggest costs in life are homes, cars and kids.
But the plus side of a home is it appreciates. No doubt people have been lucky and the past 10 years (especailly 5) things have zoomed up the charts. But even if you bought in the high mortgage rate 80s and 90s, someone's home still goes up in value unless they are unlucky and live in a shit town where everyone is leaving making home prices stagnate (I'm sure some towns out there are like that).
Cars are a big drag because unless it's a collector's item, they depreciate fast.
As you said, living a frugal life you can get by. For me, as soon as my house is paid off (I can technically do it as soon as I sell off my investment condo later this year and still bank leftover profits), my car is paid off too. Problem is in a year or two it's time to buy/lease another one unless I milk this car to the bitter end which I'm not.
But if I paid off my home (which I wont), there technically would be a moment in time I'd have no mortgage and no car payments. My monthly expenses for food, property tax (divided into 12 month), utility bills, home and car insurance, gas, buying random shit and buying Xmas gifts is probably less than $2,000 per month. It's the mortgage and car payments that grill ya.
My car is paid off, but when I had payments, it was $950/mth!
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StateofMajora
Banned
Nothing like a paid off home if you can do it without dipping into your other investments imo.
In your case after selling the condo I'd probably invest that with a plan to take the quick profits out before the fall season this year due to market uncertainty (all major crashes happen in the fall) then pay the house off so it was off of my mind at least. Just my 2c.
Because I think that a major housing crash is coming and well we can guess what comes next. BUT hopefully nothing happens this year and we all keep making money.
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chromhound
Member
I hope no one bought Shopify at the top lol...
Fools idol
Member
scooped up some more cloudflare, shopify and ali baba. This feels like were really getting capitulation
GHG
Member
Amazon needs to settle down and consolidate here (2300's). If not then the whole market is in big trouble IMO.
The pump and dump in the last 24 hours has been incredible.
Not yet unfortunately. It can get a lot worse still. The VIX hasn't broken out yet, if it does then we will see absolute chaos.
Edit:
Yep, definitely not capitulation yet. People are still buying this crap:
The pump and dump in the last 24 hours has been incredible.
Not yet unfortunately. It can get a lot worse still. The VIX hasn't broken out yet, if it does then we will see absolute chaos.
Edit:
Yep, definitely not capitulation yet. People are still buying this crap:
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StateofMajora
Banned
I'm thinking Monday will be better if tomorrow is not.
I barely have any cash left to trade with so i'm holding from now..
I barely have any cash left to trade with so i'm holding from now..
Fools idol
Member
Black monday incoming. Algos will push this down as the QQQ's just lost it's russia war support level.
GHG
Member
It lost that support back on the 26th. New key levels are 309.6 (which we've bounced from twice this week) and then 307.5.
Under those and we're staring into an abyss.
Fools idol
Member
CrankyJay™
Member
FSR is looking mighty good at these prices.
GHG
Member
Markets are flat for the week. The sentiment is still very much "buy" the dip on social media. There are still delusions that the US economy is in a strong position. The VIX still isn't at new highs for the year, Oil and DXY are still strong.
So my take is "not yet". The meltdown is yet to come.
It will get cheaper. The big problem with it though is that we don't know how much cheaper because it's one of the few SPAC's that has managed to largely stay above $10 up until now.
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Fools idol
Member
Cloudflare posted a great beat year over year numbers looking rosy. Stock down another 7% after hours.. kinda reminds me of Nvidia back in the 2018 selloff.
Doesn't matter how good you beat, they're gonna drop your ass no matter what. High multiple / higher interest rate environment means a fist in the butt for growth names.
Doesn't matter how good you beat, they're gonna drop your ass no matter what. High multiple / higher interest rate environment means a fist in the butt for growth names.
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GHG
Member
On what basis? Because that's not what the chart is saying right now. It's more likely to fall in half from where it is now than it is to double.
The stock has a history of pump and dumps and the most notable volume is during the dumps.
What's your thesis?
CrankyJay™
Member
StateofMajora
Banned
Yeesh.
Go_Ly_Dow
Member
Charts are charts and the anticipated news flow over the coming weeks and months should bring about a decent re-rate of the share price and create a bullish sentiment. In the short-term, sure it could drop as low as 0.25p, but by the end of the year I'd say there's a good chance of it being much nearer to and perhaps over 1p.
Firstly, the company 100% owns and has mining claims what may be in the top 10 largest hard rock lithium desposits in the world, with an exploration target of 120-160mil tonnes. https://www.premierafricanminerals.com/zimbabwe/zulu-project
They were also awarded last year exploration rights to the surrounding area of the Zulu project, referred to as the 'EPO', which is 56x the size of the project above. This is now being explored through the drilling programme and its expected will also hold significant lithium bearing pegamaites and spodumene, aka what's used to produce electric car batteries. Results are due this quarter.
What may bring about a further and sustained re-rate of the share price are the following:
-a resource upgrade statement to the current 20.1mil tonne maiden resource is due this quarter, up to 80mil tonnes is expected Q2
-the completion of the definitive feasability study (DFS) Q2-Q3, a significant milestone after 14months when it first commenced
-results of 700-800 completed drilling samples (assays) Q2
-plans to launch a pilot spodumene plant, which is likely going to financed via their partner Q2-Q3
-buyout offers for the Zulu project (a comparable project, called Arcadia, recently sold in Zimbabwe $422mil vs PREM's entire company mcap of around $80mil) https://www.mining-technology.com/news/zhejiang-huayou-zimbabwean-lithium/
As well as this, you'll see from the news release in March, a multi-billion dollar Chinese electric vehicle battery manufacturer that supplies Tesla, Suzhou, recently funded the company with £12mil (about $16-17mil) and took a 13% stake in the business at a premium of 0.4p a share. This has provided the company with enough working capital to last into next year and also fund the Zulu operations and their other projects too.
I have been invested in this for years and 6 bagged my initial investment on it, however it still remains undervalued for what's taking place, especially once it has an operational lithium mine. I read every news release, watch every investor presentation and am active in both Telegram groups. There is great confidence in the company and stock price over time, so I thought it's worth sharing with Gaffers.
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Fools idol
Member
Monday will be the worst overall market drop in history I think. Prep your buttholes.
StateofMajora
Banned
In May?
Historically major crashes happen in the fall, COVID in early 2020 being an exception.
I don't see any particular event that would cause it and the dow barely went down, as well as my own holdings today.
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Fools idol
Member
Russia are about to make an announcement about the war and it will not be pretty.
StateofMajora
Banned
If it's just them declaring war on Ukraine, it's already a war and only the Russians are saying it's not.
Don't get me wrong I'm sure that would be a big red day but realistically it does not change the current situation. Unless people are naively thinking the Russians might have just backed down after all this.
Anyway, my butthole is as prepared as it's going to be...
CrankyJay™
Member
Down another 5% today. Can’t help but just average down where I can. Also bought $10k worth of series I bonds today. Couldn’t pass up the 9.62%
Fools idol
Member
well there is the black monday.
I bought some stonks.
I bought some stonks.
StateofMajora
Banned
Intel still held the $43 line. Might go to 42 tomorrow finally...
chromhound
Member
Time to delete the app until next year
Fools idol
Member
We're still around 2000 points or so above the pre-covid / pre-infinity QE print levels. Assuming, hypothetically the algos and MM's are trying to take us there, thats still a hell of a drop for most individual growth stocks. Could be another 20% down to go for things like $NFLX, $SHOP, etc.
Don't even get me started on Crypto. That dumpster fire has just begun, mom and pop and kiddos are going to be crushed.
Don't even get me started on Crypto. That dumpster fire has just begun, mom and pop and kiddos are going to be crushed.
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GHG
Member
That wasn't it. The worst is still to come. People are still buying the "dip", there's no panic yet. But I think we are close, the VIX just refuses to settle down. If it breaks out above 38 then there will be chaos. Margin calls will cascade this market down quicker than people realise.
My advice to everyone is don't buy stocks/indexes, sell puts at lower prices (at points where they look very attractive to you). If not you will be bagholding for a long time and that can be brutal psychologically. We are unlikely to have a V shape recovery for a number of reasons.
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StateofMajora
Banned
Fools idol
Member
I've never been a good market timer either but looking at the chart for QQQ there is literally zero support of any kind for a good 2000 points lol
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Cyberpunkd
Member
Nice correction, last 2 years gave me the time to get a nice sum ready for market correction since last year was LOL in terms of stock value. Now we are back to normal levels, I can put in more money.
Fools idol
Member
be careful bud. No big buys... nibble, were gonna see real panic sink in once the fed effect kicks in, lol
GHG
Member
The problem is with these things is that nobody ever knows when the bottom will fall out, and when it does it's sudden. There will need to be a catalyst though, whether it's a big fund/bank going out of business due to being over-leveraged/arrogant or whether it's a geopolitical event, that's the only way I see market wide circuit breakers being triggered. If not it's just going to be a gradual and painful grind down over the next 18-24 months.
People who think it's bad now aren't seeing the bigger picture. Bitcoin just bounced off a support that's existed since July 2021 and then there's this:
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/N6DPFCCWLRNGLH4AHHEAX3AAYY.jpg)
U.S. retail investors scooped up stocks during Thursday's market drop
Individual investors were major buyers on Thursday as stocks sold off over concerns that the U.S. Federal Reserve would have to increase the size of interest rate hikes to tame inflation, which is running at a four-decade high.
So there's still an appetite to buy crap (maybe crap is harsh, and I should say high risk asset classes), and retail are showing no signs of capitulation. Major tech stocks like Apple and Microsoft are still holding up relatively well. Tesla is still sitting at a P/E ratio of over 100. The VIX is yet to rea h extreme levels. We have a long way to go yet.
The transfer and destruction of wealth is still happening and things will need to continue like this for quite some time in order to cause a major demand shock and get inflation under control. Property prices need to crash, people need to lose their jobs. People are underestimating just how much money was thrown into circulation on a global scale, this process will take a while.
My strategy is to sell puts on stocks/indexes I like, but far far away from their current prices. I will keep on doing so as we grind down and will gladly collect the premiums in the meantime if I don't get assigned. I have also bought some cheap 2024 puts on stocks that I believe will get absolutely destroyed over the next couple of years.
This isn't normal, far from it.
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lol
tbh, all I did guys was take the money I made from my business over the years and save / invest at around %30 of my income for the last 14 years. I started with pretty much $45k of life savings - Starting young is key. My snowball started after I got my first rented home at 23. I started pretty late.. most of my wealth was generated from consistent business returns but from investing I snowballed with Tesla and Cloudflare.
if you can save 30% of your income and get 10-30% compound return on that each year you are going to be rich very quickly..
Congratulations on your success and the Italian V8 powered spoils! You are definitely not the norm and are a pretty exceptional case from the data I'm familiar with. Are you saying you bought your first "rent house" at 23? That doesn't seem very late to me.
Also having the luxury to invest 30% of your income is a huge boon. That 45k of life savings you started with whenever that was is about 9x the median of US bank savings as of Feb 22'. Tesla and Cloudflare were pretty incredible hits too.
I tried picking individual stocks for a while but just couldn't stomach it. I'm just a boring index investor but have done well enough since starting 14 years ago. Though I started with 47k in student loan debt and making 40k after I got out of college. Still, I've invested at least 10% of my income every year and the amount that I have amassed is nothing to sneeze at. Well on my way to multiple millions and hopefully an early retirement. Starting early is most definitely the biggest key.
Just based on historical market returns, I think a dollar invested when you are 18 or 20, is like $77 at 65. Pretty insane. I started at 23
Ellery
Member
The problem is with these things is that nobody ever knows when the bottom will fall out, and when it does it's sudden. There will need to be a catalyst though, whether it's a big fund/bank going out of business due to being over-leveraged/arrogant or whether it's a geopolitical event, that's the only way I see market wide circuit breakers being triggered. If not it's just going to be a gradual and painful grind down over the next 18-24 months.
People who think it's bad now aren't seeing the bigger picture. Bitcoin just bounced off a support that's existed since July 2021 and then there's this:
U.S. retail investors scooped up stocks during Thursday's market drop
Individual investors were major buyers on Thursday as stocks sold off over concerns that the U.S. Federal Reserve would have to increase the size of interest rate hikes to tame inflation, which is running at a four-decade high.www.reuters.com
So there's still an appetite to buy crap (maybe crap is harsh, and I should say high risk asset classes), and retail are showing no signs of capitulation. Major tech stocks like Apple and Microsoft are still holding up relatively well. Tesla is still sitting at a P/E ratio of over 100. The VIX is yet to rea h extreme levels. We have a long way to go yet.
The transfer and destruction of wealth is still happening and things will need to continue like this for quite some time in order to cause a major demand shock and get inflation under control. Property prices need to crash, people need to lose their jobs. People are underestimating just how much money was thrown into circulation on a global scale, this process will take a while.
My strategy is to sell puts on stocks/indexes I like, but far far away from their current prices. I will keep on doing so as we grind down and will gladly collect the premiums in the meantime if I don't get assigned. I have also bought some cheap 2024 puts on stocks that I believe will get absolutely destroyed over the next couple of years.
This isn't normal, far from it.
Good post yeah.
Weird situation and the amount of things that need to be considered and factored in are so massive that this is where the uncertainy comes from. We are living in peak capitalism of fiat currency in a world where central banks are the drug dealers.
On the one hand the valuations of stocks are extremely high, but on the other hand the central banks printed and poured so much money into the system which inflated everything (including stock prices).
Like you said we will see the picture when people start losing jobs or get in situations where they have to liquidate assets to pay bills etc. . We aren't there yet, but we start seeing people being more mindful about spending. We have a new culture of people wanting to hold assets (modern day HODL combined with Buffett investing strategies) no matter what. We have retail being thirsty for dip buying.
Rising rates will have a big effect on people in debt and falling of asset prices will put those people that leveraged their assets to take on more credit in a tough spot.
The next 6-18 months will be mighty interesting. I have no strong feeling about where I think it goes. I guess some sort of unwinding and falling prices of most assets makes the most sense (á la Ray Dalio debt cycle and deleveraging). Not sure if I would go as far as talking about a new world order or burst of the big 100 year debt cycle, but looking at the past 5 years it seems like anything can happen in this reality and outside factors that are unpredictable will play a huge factor too.
Who knows. Maybe 3 weeks from now the SP500 is at ATH.
chromhound
Member
i hope no one was in Upstart....
Fools idol
Member
Every time I look at PayPal or Shopify I just sit there in disbelief.
Not companies I personally own, but easily two of the best growth stocks in the world. Down 80% in less than 6 month. Absolutely wild shit.
Shopify in particular I use once a week at least, and PayPal too. Once the dust settles on the index later in the year these will be screaming buys, I will go balls deep.
Not companies I personally own, but easily two of the best growth stocks in the world. Down 80% in less than 6 month. Absolutely wild shit.
Shopify in particular I use once a week at least, and PayPal too. Once the dust settles on the index later in the year these will be screaming buys, I will go balls deep.
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Fools idol
Member
did some digging around as I generally do when awaiting major reports like CPI tomorrow and found ... well, something pretty disturbing.
I am by no means a macro / commodities expert however.... This chart shows a potential nightmare about to unfold.
Diesel inventories on the US east coast is at 18M barrels or ~ 3 days demand, running down quickly under historic lows below10 million. Trucks, Tractors, general farming vehicles... as if food chain and general supply chains were not stressed enough, I think by June were going to be in the balls deep zone of apocalypse in terms of global diesel shortages..
I am by no means a macro / commodities expert however.... This chart shows a potential nightmare about to unfold.
Diesel inventories on the US east coast is at 18M barrels or ~ 3 days demand, running down quickly under historic lows below10 million. Trucks, Tractors, general farming vehicles... as if food chain and general supply chains were not stressed enough, I think by June were going to be in the balls deep zone of apocalypse in terms of global diesel shortages..
StateofMajora
Banned
That looks horrific indeed. Our "leaders" are driving us right into a depression if things do not change. By mid terms there will already be so much more damage than now...did some digging around as I generally do when awaiting major reports like CPI tomorrow and found ... well, something pretty disturbing.
I am by no means a macro / commodities expert however.... This chart shows a potential nightmare about to unfold.
Diesel inventories on the US east coast is at 18M barrels or ~ 3 days demand, running down quickly under historic lows below10 million. Trucks, Tractors, general farming vehicles... as if food chain and general supply chains were not stressed enough, I think by June were going to be in the balls deep zone of apocalypse in terms of global diesel shortages..
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Fools idol
Member
The crypto markets are in freefall now. Wont be long before this whole scam goes to covid crash levels.