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[JDA]

4m in NA? Even their shipment figures show NA shipment by the end of September at 3.6m units.
And btw Microsoft always uses shipped numbers.
Shipped =! sold

MS said they shipped 5m worldwide by the end of June.

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20060721-7321.html

Something is not adding up here

 

[fortified_concept]

Quarterly reports are not PR. These are numbers that the Securities and Exchange Commission pays attention to.

Point is these numbers you're providing don't matter in this forum because companies always love to do fuzzy math and they'll lie one way or another. It's 4+ million sold worldwide till the end of October. End of story.

MS said they shipped 5m worldwide by the end of June.

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20060721-7321.html

Something is not adding up here

fuzzy math

 

[LJ11]

Quarterly reports are not PR. These are numbers that the Securities and Exchange Commission pays attention to.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but since Sony's ADR trades on the NYSE and is subject to SEC regulation, why would the SEC allow Sony to track sales figures one way and MS another?

MS also stated this past week that the term "shipped" to them means shipped from distribution center and to Sony shipped means shipped from factory.

Edit: By sales I mean number of units sold, not revenue.

 

[JDA]

Point is these numbers you're providing don't matter in this forum because companies always love to do fuzzy math and they'll lie one way or another. It's 4+ million sold worldwide till the end of Ocrober. End of story.

What are your sources, anything reputable?

 

[fortified_concept]

What are your sources, anything reputable?

NPD threads.

 

[JDA]

Message board threads?

 

[PjotrStroganov]

Again

amount of PS2 owners >>>>>>> Amount of Xbox 360 owners.

Therefore the potential market for Xbox 360 hardware is much bigger. Unless Sony has some way appeal to a completely different market, the sales numbers will not rise that much anymore. There are just to many people that already own the console for the numbers to be higher.

Xbox 360 sales numbers can only go up because of the relative low amount of people owning that console.

 

[KeithFranklin]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but since Sony's ADR trades on the NYSE and is subject to SEC regulation, why would the SEC allow Sony to track sales figures one way and MS another?

Edit: By sales I mean number of units sold, not revenue.

Sony quarterly reports arent PR either. Not saying Sony is being dishonest with the shipped numbers. My response was about stating the MS numbers are from PR.

I for one think Sony and MS are correct to report the shipped as sold. Simply because as I have said many many many times retailers dont let manufacturers force product on them. To me sold means has the product been ordered by the retailers and in the channel. Yes this doesnt entirely work when it is launch time with the consoles, but after the launch period this works.

 

[starship]

MS said they shipped 5m worldwide by the end of June.

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20060721-7321.html

Something is not adding up here

Those are worldwide while I was talking about NA figures.
Btw, we have more recent figures which show 6m units worldwide by the end of Sep.

Message board threads?

:lol :lol

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

I'm having fun trying to believe PS2 has just sold 500k this year when its worse full year on UK was 1.3m and that was 2004 because of shortages...

 

[LJ11]

Sony quarterly reports arent PR either. Not saying Sony is being dishonest with the shipped numbers. My response was about stating the MS numbers are from PR.

I for one think Sony and MS are correct to report the shipped as sold. Simply because as I have said many many many times retailers dont let manufacturers force product on them. To me sold means is has the product been ordered by the retailers.

I for one understand that SEC filings are not PR. My problem stems from your first post, which states Sony books units sold based on the number of units shipped from "factory" and MS does it on orders placed to their "distribution center." If by factory you mean assembly line than we have a huge disparity in the way each firm accounts for sales figures. Wouldn't the SEC have a problem with this?

 

[Jokeropia]

I for one think Sony and MS are correct to report the shipped as sold. Simply because as I have said many many many times retailers dont let manufacturers force product on them. To me sold means has the product been ordered by the retailers and in the channel. Yes this doesnt entirely work when it is launch time with the consoles, but after the launch period this works.

MS shipped = sold to retailers.
Sony shipped = shipped from manufacturing plants. (Sony calls it "production shipments".)

MS even commented on this in a recent interview:

"To make sure we’re clear, Sony does shipped from factory. We don’t. Our shipped means it has left a distribution warehouse in Memphis to a retailer. There is a big lag of six week to eight-week lag between what we called shipped and what Sony calls shipped. That’s the way we do the accounting."

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/aei/2006/11/an_interview_wi_1.html

 

[JDA]

:lol :lol

Are they message board threads or not? NPD numbers might be real,but you'd have to count up every release. Just someone posting on the internet that they added up a bunch of numbers (or even the validity of the numbers themselves) is questionable.

 

[fortified_concept]

Are they message board threads or not? NPD numbers might be real,but you'd have to count up every release. Just someone posting on the internet that they added up a bunch of numbers (or even the validity of the numbers themselves) is questionable.

They are counting everything from NPD to japanese sales and European estimates. We've discussed this a million times. There are people here working for NPD and others that add the numbers correctly for years now. It's estimates but it's much better than companies' bullshit numbers.

 

[Frankfurter]

:lol :lol don't you mean 10 million worldwide by the end of '06?

10 mil 360's vs. 2 mil wii's vs. 1 mil ps3's... not bad if they hit their targets, especially for publishers who will be swimming in the $$$ scrooge mcduck style

If you talk about shipments and about hitting targets, you should atleast use the targets of all three companies and not just some completely made up numbers that atleast for Nintendo definitely won't have anything to do with reality.

 

[JDA]

They are counting everything from NPD to japanese sales and European estimates. We've discussed this a million times. There are people here working for NPD and others that add the numbers correctly for years now. It's estimates but it's much better than companies bullshit.

People here that work for NPD? Who? I could trust the NPD themselves, but anyone can say they work for so-and-so...

You say there are others that 'add the numbers correctly for years now', how can you say this is true?

 

[Gantz]

MS shipped = sold to retailers.
Sony shipped = shipped from manufacturing plants. (Sony calls it "production shipments".)

MS even commented on this in a recent interview:

I wonder what the real numbers are of purchased by consumers versus shipped to retail stores/sitting on shelves.

 

[duk]

NPD is about 80% of real numbers according to a dev at B3D. In anycase, this thread title is amusing. One week doesn't mean squat, now say a couple of weeks in a row, that's a little something.

 

[Mau ®]

So 360 sells great for a small tiem period and all of a sudden its a smashing success?

The DSphat and lite are the surprises here. Everything else is not worth the mention.

 

[fortified_concept]

People here that work for NPD? Who? I could trust the NPD themselves, but anyone can say they work for so-and-so...

You say there are others that 'add the numbers correctly for years now', how can you say this is true?

I've had this discussion with new members a million times. Pay attention to NPD threads and learn for yourself.

NPD is about 80% of real numbers according to a dev at B3D. In anycase, this thread title is amusing. One week doesn't mean squat, now say a couple of weeks in a row, that's a little something.

Let me guess: Because they don't count the Walmart numbers? They do count the walmart numbers and we've said that a million times too. The guy you're quoting is wrong.

 

[LJ11]

That 6 to 8 week lag MS stated sounds a bit strange to me. 6-8 weeks is a rather long time from finished production to retail. You would think their inventory would be a bit more streamlined.

Edit: Also, does Sony ship from manufacturing to retail using some kind of JIT operation or do they throw them in some warehouse until retailers request units?

 

[Dalthien]

I'm having fun trying to believe PS2 has just sold 500k this year when its worse full year on UK was 1.3m and that was 2004 because of shortages...

Honestly, the PS2 can't be much higher than that this year. Chart Track confirmed that Nintendo hardware has outsold Sony hardware in the UK for 2006 (http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=21402), and also confirmed that DS sales are about 2 million LTD, which puts them at about 1 million units for 2006. I think it is safe to say that GBA and GC sales have been fairly negligible this year in the UK, so that means that Nintendo hardware for the year is a little above a million units. Therefore, PS2 + PSP can't be any higher than a million units combined for 2006.

When you factor in that the PSP started the year very strong in the UK (and I believe it was even the top-selling hardware for the first month or two), then that doesn't leave much left over for the PS2. It depends on just how bad the PSP numbers are for 2006, but really, the PS2 couldn't be much all that much higher than 500k at this point.

 

[Frankfurter]

People here that work for NPD? Who? I could trust the NPD themselves, but anyone can say they work for so-and-so...

You say there are others that 'add the numbers correctly for years now', how can you say this is true?

From time to time Nintendo gives out hardware sell through for the USA according to NPD and this somehow always matches the numbers we got from GAF
That may not be a 100% proof for the correctness of Sony and MS hardware numbers, but it somehow seems doubtful that someone would post the correct Nintendo hardware numbers and make up the rest.

 

[JDA]

I've had this discussion with new members a million times. Pay attention to NPD threads and learn for yourself.

Got any specific links related to what I was asking?

All I ever see is fanboys making their own opinions of numbers.

I'm searching the board now, but not really finding anything.

 

[Xellotah]

NPD is about 80% of real numbers according to a dev at B3D. In anycase, this thread title is amusing. One week doesn't mean squat, now say a couple of weeks in a row, that's a little something.

Sure, but every journey begins with one step.

 

[jimbo]

That 6 to 8 week lag MS stated sounds a bit strange to me. 6-8 weeks is a rather long time from finished production to retail. You would think their inventory would be a bit more streamlined.

Edit: Also, does Sony ship from manufacturing to retail using some kind of JIT operation or do they throw them in some warehouse until retailers request units?

leave production to wearhouses---->stock and wait for purchase orders------->leave the wearhouses towards shipping dock in asia-----------> load on freight container----> load container on ship-----> sail across the ocean-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------> unload and go through customs at US docks ---------> pick up by distributors ---->distribute to stores.

 

[LJ11]

Jimbo, Just in Time Inventory. Shipping takes a while, I know, but you can have a much more streamlined system. Why even have the Memphis Distribution center. Ship them directly to retailers.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Honestly, the PS2 can't be much higher than that this year. Chart Track confirmed that Nintendo hardware has outsold Sony hardware in the UK for 2006 (http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=21402), and also confirmed that DS sales are about 2 million LTD, which puts them at about 1 million units for 2006. I think it is safe to say that GBA and GC sales have been fairly negligible this year in the UK, so that means that Nintendo hardware for the year is a little above a million units. Therefore, PS2 + PSP can't be any higher than a million units combined for 2006.

When you factor in that the PSP started the year very strong in the UK (and I believe it was even the top-selling hardware for the first month or two), then that doesn't leave much left over for the PS2. It depends on just how bad the PSP numbers are for 2006, but really, the PS2 couldn't be much all that much higher than 500k at this point.

Yes, going by those little tid bits, yes. Thats why its fun...because you look at the old data, the PS2 year data...and well, its like PS2 is dead this year. Come on, we have seen the software charts during the year, and X360 showing was pathethic most of it, and yet is above PS2 in terms of hardware? Also NDS and PSP had far better showing on software than X360, and they are handhelds with a tie ratio really lower than consoles. Sounds really weird to me. Not saying that its fake, just weird data that doesn't match in my mind.

 

[starship]

If we believe those numbers, PSP LTD sales in the UK was 1.25m which means a gap of more than 750k between PSP and DS in the UK. And I think France and Germany are more Nintendo friendly so we are looking at more than 2.5m gap between these handhelds in Europe?
Add more than 8m gap in Japan and 1.5m in NA and we get at least 12m gap between these systems which only grow more over the time.

 

[squatingyeti]

I've had this discussion with new members a million times. Pay attention to NPD threads and learn for yourself.



Let me guess: Because they don't count the Walmart numbers? They do count the walmart numbers and we've said that a million times too. The guy you're quoting is wrong.

ORLY? They estimate the Wal-Mart numbers. NPD doesn't count all of NA either. NPD also estimates many parts of their numbers. Although as close to accurate as you'll get, they are not the real numbers.

 

[squatingyeti]

That 6 to 8 week lag MS stated sounds a bit strange to me. 6-8 weeks is a rather long time from finished production to retail. You would think their inventory would be a bit more streamlined.

Edit: Also, does Sony ship from manufacturing to retail using some kind of JIT operation or do they throw them in some warehouse until retailers request units?

Sony ships to a warehouse, where they sit until actually ordered and then they are "really" shipped. Sony uses shipped to warehouse when doing PR, but their financial reports use a little ummm fuzzy in between. The SEC won't consider this a big deal unless the numbers start getting way off. Then it's a problem.

 

[Dalthien]

Yes, going by those little tid bits, yes. Thats why its fun...because you look at the old data, the PS2 year data...and well, its like PS2 is dead this year. Come on, we have seen the software charts during the year, and X360 showing was pathethic most of it, and yet is above PS2 in terms of hardware? Also NDS and PSP had far better showing on software than X360, and they are handhelds with a tie ratio really lower than consoles. Sounds really weird to me. Not saying that its fake, just weird data that doesn't match in my mind.

I agree that it seems kind of weird, but when you actually analyze all of the reports, then the numbers which were shown in this thread seem to be correct, or at least pretty close to the truth.

As far as the X360 vs. PS2, it all comes down to this report from MCV (http://www.mcvuk.com/Christmas-cracker-ahead-after-a-record-breaking-sales-week) where the Chart Track Director confirms LTD X360 sales of about 700k. As long as that report is correct, then yeah, it appears that X360 sales this year have basically matched the PS2 sales this year. Obviously, the software sales have greatly favoured the PS2, but my guess is that the PS2 has faced a similar fate as in Japan this year - where a number of software titles have still performed very well, but where hardware sales are way down from previous years. Mostly just the huge installed base continuing to buy new games, but with little in the way of new customers.

 

[fortified_concept]

ORLY? They estimate the Wal-Mart numbers. NPD doesn't count all of NA either. NPD also estimates many parts of their numbers. Although as close to accurate as you'll get, they are not the real numbers.

Read Frankfurter's post. They're pretty accurate even if a part of the numbers are estimates. Afterall noone demands the exact numbers and noone cares to have the exact numbers. If the total numbers of a region are estimated correctly to the .1 of the million it's OK and that's all it matters for GAF. Can we please stop with this stupid discussion now?

 

[LJ11]

Sony ships to a warehouse, where they sit until actually ordered and then they are "really" shipped. Sony uses shipped to warehouse when doing PR, but their financial reports use a little ummm fuzzy in between. The SEC won't consider this a big deal unless the numbers start getting way off. Then it's a problem.

IMO the SEC doesn't give a shit. I was just setting Keith Franklin up. As long as Sony/MS book revenue and costs according to US GAAP, they could care less.

Edit: Sony also uses a JIT system, so saying the units sit in a warehouse isn't really accurate. I'm sure MS uses one as well, hence the reason I found the lag comment kind of puzzling. MS wants to fabricate chips themselves next gen to cut down on costs and inventory leads.

 

[ichigo kurosaki]

Europe turning its back on Sony? This is a clear sign that the Armaggeddon is just around the corner \o/


W3 4R3 D00M3D!!!!!!

 

[Frankfurter]

If we for one second believe that these sales are indeed real, I see one major problem. PSP sold ~810k in the UK in 2005 (according to ELSPA report) and another ~436k this year till the middle of November. Sales throughout Europe for 2005 (including UK) were arround 2.5m (afaik that was about the general consensus although Sony never gave out a specific number) and about 2-3 months ago Sony said that PSP sell through in Europe is 4.5m. There are several possiblities:
1) this data is completely made up
2) there are some other markets in Europe which fared FAR better than last year (~810k/~2500k for the UK for 2005, ~436k/2.0m+ [the 436k is very recent, the 2.0m figure 2-3 months old] for the UK for 2006), although I really don't see which other major markets should'be given such a huge boost: Germany was at arround 350k (according to Sony) arround the time of the Games Convention, Spain sth. like 400-500k three or four months ago afair
3) the 4.5m sell through is somewhat wrong (I had to do that )

 

[Luckyman]

I'm having fun trying to believe PS2 has just sold 500k this year when its worse full year on UK was 1.3m and that was 2004 because of shortages...

This report implies that 360 is doing better vs PS2 than in the NA, infact outselling it this year. Other reports heavily suggest otherwise.

 

[Fredrik]

If the total numbers of a region are estimated correctly to the .1 of the million it's OK and that's all it matters for GAF.

The problem is that we don't have these kind of estimated sales from the majority of the countries in the world, yet people use the few we have to count the world wide sales.
I live in Sweden but I have no idea what so ever how much any of the consoles has sold over here. The 360 might have sold 1 million for all I know, or maybe 1 thousand. I don't know. And the same thing goes for about 30 other countries. That's why I think the shipped figures shouldn't just be laughed at.
USA+Japan+UK != World.
UK != Europe.
Etc.

 

[Shiggy]

The problem is that we don't have these kind of estimated sales from the majority of the countries in the world, yet people use the few we have to count the world wide sales.
I live in Sweden but I have no idea what so ever how much any of the consoles has sold over here. The 360 might have sold 1 million for all I know, or maybe 1 thousand. I don't know. And the same thing goes for about 30 other countries. That's why I think the shipped figures shouldn't just be laughed at.
USA+Japan+UK != World.
UK != Europe.
Etc.

But we have shipped numbers as of the end of September:
NA: 3,6 Mio.
Europe: 1,7 Mio.
Rest: 700.000

From that we could guess that there were around 5.3 million X360 consoles sold through as of the end October 2006

 

[fortified_concept]

The problem is that we don't have these kind of estimated sales from the majority of the countries in the world, yet people use the few we have to count the world wide sales.
I live in Sweden but I have no idea what so ever how much any of the consoles has sold over here. The 360 might have sold 1 million for all I know, or maybe 1 thousand. I don't know. And the same thing goes for about 30 other countries. That's why I think the shipped figures shouldn't just be laughed at.
USA+Japan+UK != World.
UK != Europe.
Etc.

And who said GAF takes into account only UK's numbers?

 

[bud]

Got any specific links related to what I was asking?

All I ever see is fanboys making their own opinions of numbers.

I'm searching the board now, but not really finding anything.

You should search for NPD and not ''omg ps2 am selling bad lolz!''

Seriously though, npd.

 

[Ristlager]

I think people are dooming the ps2 sales a bit too prematurely. In an interview with the man who imports ps2 for sale in Norway, he said he was actually happy that sony moved the launch to March next year, because they had never seen such a demand for the ps2 in its entirerly lifetime. I cant say this is the case for the rest of Europe, but after games like singstar/buzz and now guitar hero, sony is selling ps2 to non-gamers like crazy. Alot of people that never have owned a ps2 or a consoll in their lifetime are now singing the tunes to singstar.

 

[AniHawk]

Got any specific links related to what I was asking?

All I ever see is fanboys making their own opinions of numbers.

I'm searching the board now, but not really finding anything.

There's a whole sales forum full of old threads with real sales that actually took place in ancient Japan.

 

[KeithFranklin]

Sony ships to a warehouse, where they sit until actually ordered and then they are "really" shipped. Sony uses shipped to warehouse when doing PR, but their financial reports use a little ummm fuzzy in between. The SEC won't consider this a big deal unless the numbers start getting way off. Then it's a problem.

SEC also wont mind as long as they stay consistent. If the vary quarter by quarter then the SEC may investigate.

IMO the SEC doesn't give a shit. I was just setting Keith Franklin up. As long as Sony/MS book revenue and costs according to US GAAP, they could care less.

Edit: Sony also uses a JIT system, so saying the units sit in a warehouse isn't really accurate. I'm sure MS uses one as well, hence the reason I found the lag comment kind of puzzling. MS wants to fabricate chips themselves next gen to cut down on costs and inventory leads.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Care to tell me what I am being setup for?

As for JIT I am sure that Sony, MS, and Nintendo use JIT systems for Manufacturing to a certain extent. For buildup for Christmas they arent waiting until the retailers orders come in. This also falls inline with what I was saying about shipped = sold. The big retailers certainly use JIT inventory systems and they dont start accepting shippments for product they havent ordered that is one of the whole reasons of JIT inventory systems. The retailers dont want to end up being warehouses for manufacturers.

 

[LJ11]

Care to tell me what I am being setup for?

As for JIT I am sure that Sony, MS, and Nintendo use JIT systems for Manufacturing to a certain extent. For buildup for Christmas they arent waiting until the retailers orders come in. This also falls inline with what I was saying about shipped = sold. The big retailers certainly use JIT inventory systems and they dont start accepting shippments for product they havent ordered that is one of the whole reasons of JIT inventory systems. The retailers dont want to end up being warehouses for manufacturers.

I was just trying to point out that the SEC doesn't really care about the figures being bandied about with regards to units sold as long as Sony and MS book revenue according to US GAAP.

 

[Kleegamefan]

People here that work for NPD? Who? I could trust the NPD themselves, but anyone can say they work for so-and-so...

You say there are others that 'add the numbers correctly for years now', how can you say this is true?

NPD, Media Create, et al. Numbers have been tracked, discussed, whored and scrutinized to death on GAF years before you even thought about becoming a member here

There are *SEVERAL* GAF members, developers included, who have varified the validity of the numbers sourced from people like bunkum, SCB and crazy bullocks on a train, to name just three.....

If the onus of doubt is on anyone, its not them, for sure.....perhaps looking in a mirror is in order here?

 

[Slay]

NPD, Media Create, et al. Numbers have been tracked, discussed, whored and scrutinized to death on GAF years before you even thought about becoming a member here

but.. but... nexgenwars says....

 

[Fredrik]

And who said GAF takes into account only UK's numbers?

Is there any other numbers for Europe? I haven't seen any. I'd like to see figures from Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Finland, Germany, France, Spain, etc before stating that "Sony Land" is no more.

And I'd like to see these type of estimated/tracked/whatever sales figures from about 30 more countries before stating how many Xbox360 consoles that has been sold world wide.
There may be somewhat accurate trackings and estimations for the sales in the USA, but what about other countries?

I'd say that for now I think the shipped figures are more accurate than anything that has been posted at this board when it comes to world wide sales.

 

[fortified_concept]

Is there any other numbers for Europe? I haven't seen any. I'd like to see figures from Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Finland, Germany, France, Spain, etc before stating that "Sony Land" is no more.

And I'd like to see these type of estimated/tracked/whatever sales figures from about 30 more countries before stating how many Xbox360 consoles that has been sold world wide.
There may be somewhat accurate trackings and estimations for the sales in the USA, but what about other countries?

I'd say that for now I think the shipped figures are more accurate than anything that has been posted at this board when it comes to world wide sales.

Oh for god's sake read what Klee said. We have people here who track all sales and although nothing is 100% correct since they're estimated numbers they're pretty accurate. I'm sick and tired of explaining to junior members how GAF knows about console sales. Shipped numbers are bollocks and everyone knows it because companies are full of crap and fuzzy math and at least in this forum shipped numbers were never the criterion for sales comparisons. Just drop it.

 

[Aika'svyse]

Is there any other numbers for Europe? I haven't seen any. I'd like to see figures from Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Finland, Germany, France, Spain, etc before stating that "Sony Land" is no more.

And I'd like to see these type of estimated/tracked/whatever sales figures from about 30 more countries before stating how many Xbox360 consoles that has been sold world wide.
There may be somewhat accurate trackings and estimations for the sales in the USA, but what about other countries?

I'd say that for now I think the shipped figures are more accurate than anything that has been posted at this board when it comes to world wide sales.

QFT