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Official October NPD SOFTWARE Prediction Thread - REOPENED UNTIL Wednesday, Nov 14

B

Beer Monkey

Member
[360 Ace Combat 6] 119K
[360 Guitar Hero III] 399K
[360 Halo 3] 320K
[360 The Orange Box] 310K
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 262K
[PS2 Guitar Hero III] 480K
[PS3 Ratchet & Clank Future] 116K
[PS3 Guitar Hero III] 82K
[WII Guitar Hero III] 225K
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 59K
 
S

sonycowboy

Member
Cheesemeister said:
Predictions are now closed.
Click to expand...

Reopened until Wednesday @ 4PM EST due to the NPD hullabaloo and many people not bothering to predict.

Next month, it will resume it's schedule of closing the Friday before results are released.
 
D

duk

Banned
[360 Ace Combat 6] 135K
[360 Guitar Hero III] 375K
[360 Halo 3] 650K
[360 The Orange Box] 295K
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 230K
[PS2 Guitar Hero III] 410K
[PS3 Ratchet & Clank Future] 115K
[PS3 Guitar Hero III] 80K
[WII Guitar Hero III] 235K
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 50K
 
D

donny2112

Member
Ganondorf>Link and Sir Fragula,

You both are predicting for Wii Play instead of Metroid Prime 3. Wii Play predictions will not be counted to the final point total, so you might want to change those to a Metroid Prime 3 prediction. ;)
 
S

Slavik81

Member
Random guesses FTW.

[360 Ace Combat 6] 110k
[360 Guitar Hero III] 235k
[360 Halo 3] 600k
[360 The Orange Box] 200k
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 170k
[PS2 Guitar Hero III] 201k
[PS3 Ratchet & Clank Future] 150k
[PS3 Guitar Hero III] 110k
[WII Guitar Hero III] 220k
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 100k
 
D

donny2112

Member
Cheesemeister said:
Predictions are now closed again.
Click to expand...

I only had to add two to my previous tallying. :)

GAF Average

360 Halo 3 - 651,300
PS2 Guitar Hero III - 412,100
360 Guitar Hero III - 407,600
360 The Orange Box - 323,300
WII Guitar Hero III - 277,200
NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass - 217,900
PS3 Ratchet & Clank Future - 156,800
360 Ace Combat 6 - 135,000
PS3 Guitar Hero III - 127,400
WII Metroid Prime 3 - 92,800


Halo 3 drops by 80%. Guitar Hero III sells over 1.2 million copies. This'll be fun. :D
 
S

sonycowboy

Member
Actuals:

[360 Ace Combat 6] = 92.5K
[360 Guitar Hero III] = 490.9K
[360 Halo 3] = 394.5K
[360 The Orange Box] = 238.4K
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] = 262.8K
[PS2 Guitar Hero III] = 502.7K
[PS3 Ratchet & Clank Future] = 74.5K
[PS3 Guitar Hero III] = 105.8K
[WII Guitar Hero III] = 286.3K
[WII Metroid Prime 3] = 45.2K
 
D

donny2112

Member
Thanks, sonycowboy! :)

Oct 2007 SW Prediction Results

1. beermonkey@tehbias - 122.14
2. Clever Pun - 121.27
3. donny2112 - 119.8
4. JJConrad - 118.09
5. duk - 115.87
6. Magic Mile - 114.31
7. dammitmattt - 114.03
8. Jewbacca - 113.28
9. devilscallmedad - 108.32
10. rikitikitik - 107.25
11. rostocker - 107.23
12. Olaeh - 106.48
13. zsidane - 106.22
14. RattleHead_ - 105.25
15. radjago - 104.75
16. TwinIonEngines - 103.59
17. SIP YEK NOD - 103.31
18. GAF Average - 103.26
19. BuzzJive - 102.3
20. RBH - 100.64
21. Slavik81 - 99.71
22. nextgeneration - 99.52
23. C4Lukins - 95.83
24. Hammer24 - 94.92
25. Chumly - 94.76
26. Reneledarker - 94.66
27. Sviatoslav - 94.26
28. tetsuoxb - 94.13
29. Brakara - 93.29
30. GhaleonEB - 91.58
31. Relix - 89.64
32. Belgorim - 89.33
33. andy_lhc - 88.34
34. The M.O.B - 87.79
35. titiklabingapat - 85.88
36. Zzoram - 81.98
37. Ganondorf>Link - 81.27
38. Sir Fragula - 79.75
39. kefka2030 - 76.56


Congratulations, beermonkey@tehbias! :D

The top ten for the last two months combined ...

1. dammitmattt - 238.19
2. radjago - 227.14
3. BuzzJive - 226.4
4. beermonkey@tehbias - 225.32
5. rostocker - 222.68
6. Clever Pun - 220.49
7. RBH - 220.45
(8. GAF Average - 217.12)
8. donny2112 - 216.66
9. JJConrad - 214.63
10. TwinIonEngines - 213.37


Based on the last two months, it looks like ~80% correct is about what to expect from the winner. That's not too bad. :)
 
S

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
sonycowboy said:
Actuals:
[360 Guitar Hero III] = 490.9K
[360 Halo 3] = 394.5K
Click to expand...

What's going on here? Both of these numbers are off, but not in the same way. Halo 3 obviously does NOT include the collectors/legendary editions... which is fine, except GH3 obviously DOES include stand alone as well as bundled.

It either makes sense to combine all SKUs for a given title or not combine them at all.
 
S

sonycowboy

Member
Stumpokapow said:
What's going on here? Both of these numbers are off, but not in the same way. Halo 3 obviously does NOT include the collectors/legendary editions... which is fine, except GH3 obviously DOES include stand alone as well as bundled.

It either makes sense to combine all SKUs for a given title or not combine them at all.
Click to expand...


you're right


donny, the correct h3 #'s are 433.8K in case it screwed you up
 
B

Beer Monkey

Member
titiklabingapat said:
Beermonkey, you're good!

Whats your SMG predictions?
Click to expand...

Uh, too early for me to guess. I sure hope it sells like gangbusters. Toys 'R Us here sold their entire first shipment, except for four copies, by preorder. I got Best Buy to price match the $25 gift card. Though I have to wonder if TRU is just incompetent, or short-shipped as a bait-and-switch.

I sure hope Galaxy sells better than it is in Japan. :(

MP3 sold what, about 350,000 or so in its first four weeks? I'd like to think that Galaxy will sell 2-3x that.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
GhaleonEB said:
[360 Ace Combat 6] 155,000 - high by 60k
[360 Guitar Hero III] 273,000 - low by 218k :lol
[360 Halo 3] 385,000 - low by 9k :D
[360 The Orange Box] 350,000 - low by 111k
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 245,000 low by 17k - not bad
[PS2 Guitar Hero III] 290,000 - hahahahahahaha
[PS3 Ratchet & Clank Future] 210,000 - OUCH
[PS3 Guitar Hero III] 110,000 - off by 4k :D
[WII Guitar Hero III] 140,000 needed to double this
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 120,000 and divide this by 3
Click to expand...

Well. At least I got Halo 3 right. :lol

I hope there's more participation next month. Software predictions are a lot tougher.
 
G

Gadfly

While flying into a tree he exclaimed "Egad!"
GhaleonEB said:
Well. At least I got Halo 3 right. :lol

I hope there's more participation next month. Software predictions are a lot tougher.
Click to expand...
no you didn't.:lol

433-385= low by 48K

The 394k listed above does not include all SKUs.
 
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