Psychotext
Member
Which would be why I said "true"...DeaconKnowledge said:
/facepalm
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Official October 2008 NPD Results
- Thread starter sonycowboy
- Start date
/facepalm
Revelations
Banned
doicare said:
Where are your numbers? 360 crossed into the 6 million user category in EU back in July with no Sony retort on where the PS3 stood in that region comparatively. 360 has been selling more than the PS3 in Japan for the last 2 months. The 400k YTD lead the PS3 had in NA is now usurped by 16k 360 units and seems to be on task to grow even more in both EU & NA by the end of the year.
Ars does a breakdown of top ten per platform YTD with comparisons of First versus Third Party;
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20081116-npd-software-top-ten-list-the-360-is-a-publishers-best-bet.html
Sales numbers are hard to come by when it comes to the gaming industry; there is no public source of information for what games and consoles are selling. The closest thing that the press has is the monthly sales report from the NPD Group. These numbers are important, and every game blog on every corner of the Internet publishes its take on what the numbers mean. Having a game on the top ten sales is big news; your title looks like a success, and suddenly everyone is talking about it. Publishers love a blockbuster, so Ars asks the question: year to date, what consoles are owning the monthly top ten list?
We studied the last ten months of data from NPD and tabulated how many games each console had in the top ten list each month. As of October, here are the totals:
The trends are obvious. When it comes to the best-selling games month after month, the Wii and the Xbox 360 dominate. Digging a little deeper, however, and you can begin to see why the 360 is so enticing to third-party developers: 25 of the 34 games the Wii put on the list were published by Nintendo itself. Each game also stayed on the charts month after month. Titles like Mario Kart, Wii Play, and Wii Fit were each counted multiple times; Wii Play is rarely off the chart. This is good news for Nintendo, but bad news for everyone else: Nintendo excels at selling Nintendo games and keeping a few games relevant for a long time.
Here is another way of looking at the data, after we've removed Nintendo first-party games and titles that chart multiple times:
The Xbox 360, by contrast, charts many third-party games each month. Many different games. In almost every case where a multiplatform game was released on multiple consoles, the 360 version hit the charts while the PS3 version was either nowhere to be seen, or sold in far fewer numbers. In August, Madden 2009 sold 1 million units on the Xbox 360, and 643,000 on the PS3. It was a hit on both consoles, but the 360 took the number one slotand by no small margin.
The PS2 only charted nine games this year, but there is another clear trend: tie-ins, ports, and "event" games do very well. If you look at the games that made it into the top ten list you'll see what I mean. Guitar Hero 2, Transformers, Madden '09, Lego Indiana Jones... all these games were put on every system under the sun and were part of a major franchise. If you have a title with broad appeal, it's worth porting it to the aging PS2.
The DS is just like the Wii in that Nintendo games do very well. The PS3 does fine with the ultra-huge releases, such as EA's sports games and a few exclusives, such as LittleBigPlanet and Metal Gear Solid 4, but publishers have to see what's so clear on the chart: the 360 sells many more games to many more people.
While the fights taking place under the top ten list are largely invisible to the public, it wouldn't be a surprise if these trends continued when looking at the top twenty, or even the top thirty. Sony lacks the ability to chart a wide array of blockbusters, and the publishers know it.
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20081116-npd-software-top-ten-list-the-360-is-a-publishers-best-bet.html
Shin Johnpv
Member
Jtyettis said:
Imagine if 3rd parties put some effort into their Wii games, you might see more than 4 of them breaking into the top 10.
Revelations
Banned
Deku said:
There are about as much big name PS3 titles as there are 360 titles. (going by third party releases of course which both systems get versions of) That statement actually can hold up.
Revelations
Banned
It's also to note that much of the unit sales for the DS and wii numbers are of Nintendo first party software sales. With third party rounding out whatever is left.Jokeropia said:
While that might be the case, you cannot draw any conclusions whatsoever regarding how much from just the top ten charts.Revelations said:
Fact is that third party sales have outpaced first party sales on both DS and Wii lately:
(Note the third party chart reaching almost 40 million and the first party being slightly over 30.)
Interesting that the Xbox/360 software share doesnt seem to have grown at all despite the overall increase in overall sales.
referring to this: http://www.irwebcasting.com/081031/19/05aa1cbb9a/image/p15.gif
referring to this: http://www.irwebcasting.com/081031/19/05aa1cbb9a/image/p15.gif
affableamerican
Member
Jokeropia said:
You're talking about overall sales across ALL 3rd party releases; the Ars report is talking about sales per 3rd party game (albeit, on a top 10 perspective, which is not the whole story... just the most important part of the story
). The key is the number of sales per title though, which is more important to a publisher than the overall sales of course. A prospective game publisher tries to project how many units of Game X will sell on each system. S/he doesn't care nearly as much about the overall 3rd party sales.affableamerican
Member
No, you're right. Evergreen titles and titles with long legs make a killing in the 'tail' of these sales curves. I mis-spoke*. But I feel like you're overlooking my point. My main point was that the difference between the Ars charts and the charts Jokeropia posted are as follows -- the Wii has an insane number of OVERALL 3rd party sales, but far fewer 3rd party titles that achieve high monthly numbers.donny2112 said:
I think your implied point -- that a given 3rd party title has a much better chance of a longer tail on the Wii -- is a good one. Are there data that clarify all this for us? Namely, data that show the LTD sales for the, say, top 30 3rd party titles for the three major platforms. These data would show what a publisher would be most closely attending to -- how well do individual 3rd party titles sell on the different platforms.
*I'm fine with admitting I'm wrong.
I wish more people on GAF would reserve that right too.Version 3.0
Member
affableamerican said:No, you're right. Evergreen titles and titles with long legs make a killing in the 'tail' of these sales curves. I mis-spoke*. But I feel like you're overlooking my point. My main point was that the difference between the Ars charts and the charts Jokeropia posted are as follows -- the Wii has an insane number of OVERALL 3rd party sales, but far fewer 3rd party titles that achieve high monthly numbers.
I think your implied point -- that a given 3rd party title has a much better chance of a longer tail on the Wii -- is a good one. Are there data that clarify all this for us? Namely, data that show the LTD sales for the, say, top 30 3rd party titles for the three major platforms. These data would show what a publisher would be most closely attending to -- how well do individual 3rd party titles sell on the different platforms.
*I'm fine with admitting I'm wrong.
With all the bits and pieces of data we have that show 3rd party games do, in fact, sell on the Wii, we always get a big discussion (or argument) in NPD threads about why more 3rd parties aren't supporting the Wii. But they obviously ARE supporting it--that's where these sales are coming from. They're just not supporting it with the types of games that hit the top of the charts--and they know it. The sales expectations we see from publishers reflects this. And then they see this data, showing that Wii games don't have these high initial sales, and continue to not attempt to make "blockbuster" Wii games. And round and round we go. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy, strangely similar to how the Gamecube was treated, despite the Wii's breakneck hardware sales.
The only thing that can change this cycle at this point would be for the Wii to have a come-from-nowhere breakout hit, in the vein of GTA III on the PS2 last gen. I don't see it happening (but no one ever does, of course). It's a shame. I'm mostly content to have my blockbusters on the PS3 or 360 (enjoying Resistance, Gears, and Mirror's Edge right now), and my smaller-scale Kororinpa, Trauma Center, de Blob-type games on the Wii--except for the shooter categories. I really wish there were more first- and third-person shooters being made for the Wii. The controls are just perfect for them.
I believe the vast majority of portable games are played in a private setting. Essentially, that time that portable games are played at home or in cars far outweighs the amount of time spent playing in a train, bus or plane.dammitmattt said:
http://www.kotaku.com.au/games/2008/11/the_number_one_location_for_portable_gaming_is_home.html
andthebeatgoeson
Junior Member
Leondexter said:
It's gonna take more than one. But yes, if Bloom Box had ended up selling 8 million, I'm sure 3rd parties would have contradicted the theory of being stuck with HD games because they 'invested' in them by hitting the next holiday with big Wii games.
Leondexter said:
I don't see it not happening for the entirety of the system's lifecycle though. The Wii is more than likely to last at least 7 years, so I don't see why there wouldn't be at least one third party breakout hit by 2013.
If I had to go by the announced lineup, and this is something I've already stated, I think Let's Tap has some potential. I don't think we should expect the potential Wii breakout hits to be conventional by last gen/PS360 standards, unless someone somehows create a new genre that's still deemed traditional, though that sounds contradictory. Think more in terms of software that really makes use of the Wiimote in new ways and is accessible, and Let's Tap is just that. I don't know if it'll be a good title, and I'm not sure it'll be a success at all, because I just don't know, but I think Prope's onto something with that game.
affableamerican said:
That wasn't what I was thinking of, but that's still a good point. I was more thinking of the fact that NPD tracks probably 3-5000 games in a given month's report. The Top 10 of those, while a relatively significant percentage of overall sales doesn't give a clear picture of what's going on in the other ~2990-4990 of games. We've looked before, when we've got an idea of sales in a month for the 360/WII, at the % of the overall sales in the Top 10, and while it wildly fluctuates since 10 games is such a minute portion of the overall market, the results pointed toward the 360 typically being Top 10 heavy and Wii non-Top 10 heavy. As Jokeropia pointed out in example with his "chartzzzzzz" vs. the Arstechnica article, DS has the second-most software sold in the U.S. through September but only has the fourth most appearances (by a wide margin) in the Top 10 through October.
The top 10 is in no meaningful or reliable or statistical way a good measure for looking at the entire market.
affableamerican said:
PS2 was insane for third-parties. Wii is nowhere near that level. Otherwise, agreed.
affableamerican said:
My only conscious point was that the Top 10 isn't a useful tool for looking at the entire market. In general, the U.S. allows games to sell for a much longer time than is typically seen in Japan (the only other place we consistently get some numbers for). The larger and more diverse the userbase (e.g. PS2), the longer games, in general, tend to sell, as well. That generality favors systems like the DS and Wii.
affableamerican said:
Only if the full NPD listings were made available.
However when considering a system's library of games for purchase-worthiness to a consumer, I don't think a distinction should be made between first and third-party. Not that you were implying that, but it's a short road to get from here to there.
skinnyrattler said:
They don't need to make "big" Wii games right away. They can start by making sure they have a team/outsourced developer doing a Wii port of all of their "big" PS360 games.
Jtyettis said:
Averages are pretty much useless, as well, so I doubt it.
The Conduit will be awesome and will sell awesome and will improve all of our lives.
*Best genre for the controller.
*Violence versus aliens is proven to be greatly compatible with typical male gamers.
*Exclusive to Wii, so no "I'll get the *** version instead".
*One of the frontrunners in tech on the system.
But most importantly, it's third party. If it does decently well, there'll be a reason to bring it up at least once on every other page in every NPD thread for the remainder of the decade.
*Best genre for the controller.
*Violence versus aliens is proven to be greatly compatible with typical male gamers.
*Exclusive to Wii, so no "I'll get the *** version instead".
*One of the frontrunners in tech on the system.
But most importantly, it's third party. If it does decently well, there'll be a reason to bring it up at least once on every other page in every NPD thread for the remainder of the decade.
Captain Smoker
Member
- only USAJtyettis said:
- YTD 2008 [till 11/17/2008]
- source is GameFAQs
Captain Smoker said:
Ah, ty, I stand corrected. Someone has put it together.
That actually says quite a bit in and of itself. With few 3rd party titles ever reaching the top ten how else can they make up the difference albeit still short compared to 360 third party titles YTD? Simple, right at 80 more third party shovleware YTD. While titles may not be making the big numbers they can make up the difference simply by having so many more third party titles to begin with. 80 additional 3rd party titles YTD is a significant difference. That says a lot. On average that would push down 3rd party sales per title by quite a decent margin compared to x360.
If you say the Wii sold 21 million (best guesstimate YTD) 3rd party software that would give the per title average of a 100k. If you say the x360 is at 23,000,000 (best guesstimate YTD) third party software sales that would give the per title average of a 178k. Those are not perfect guesstimates but probably not too far from reality based on data to date. Simply why those 80 additional titles actually matter. As a side you really cannot use that data to imply any one games sale's, but it can provide a quick snapshot of the differences between the two.
Eteric Rice
Member
bcn-ron said:
Okay, but lets be honest here. It's not from a known developers, it's not exactly pretty either, and it has to compete with other shooters on the market.
So while I'll get it, I'd say it's chances of high success is low.
Pancakes R Us
Member
I still don't see it, even if this happened. The Wii market is very different...those 30+ million Wii owners, not all of them are like you and me who would pick up top brass like MGS4 et al. Sure, there'd be a regular few hundred thousand or even a million...but more of those gamers own a 360 right now. And you know what? I am actually glad that Wii does not have this market tied down. The very last thing I want to see this generation is one manufacturer holding all others by the balls, like Sony did last gen. I think it's a lot better off for us as consumers, competition wise, to have the split we have now.Shin Johnpv said:
Leondexter said:
After looking at companies like Capcom who have Wii games that have sold comparibly with their 360 games like DR and ignore those Wii numbers, it's clear that no amount of sales or successful games are going to change anything for some companies. They are going to hate the Wii no matter what. (Disruption, fanboyism, ignorance, etc)
The sales are already there. They may not be front loaded like some companies want and have been accustomed to, but they are there.
Pancakes R Us said:
I think you're making a huge mistake if you assume that if you alter the games on a platform that the audience will remain the same. If the best version of a hardcore game is on the Wii it will sell best on the Wii, same as with just about any game. On the other hand, if a watered down 4th rate crappy port of a game is on the Wii... it's going to tank.
Jtyettis said:
heh, of course this works with other consoles too, go look up the number of PS2 games compared to either XB or GC, you'll realize those two platforms (XB & GC compared to PS2) look much better when spinning the numbers this same way. In fact it's the same way with every first place console compared to the losers as the console with the largest user base gets the most games. Pretty useless statistic.Jtyettis said:Ah, ty, I stand corrected. Someone has put it together.
On average that would push down 3rd party sales per title by quite a decent margin compared to x360.
If you say the Wii sold 21 million (best guestimate YTD) 3rd party software that would give the per title average of a 100k. If you say the x360 is at 23,000,000 (best guesstimate YTD) third party software sales that would give the per title average of a 178k. Those are not perfect guesstimates but probably not too far from reality based on data to date. Simply why those 80 additional titles actually matter.
Weisheit said:
I wasn't looking for average release data points per month for one. It maybe useless as you say, but it says a lot in comparison as to how the numbers can even remotely be comparable. But I don't remember the PS2 having any problems in the 3rd party hits department either. There is clearly a reason for those third party sales and considering it's really not happening in the top ten it's going to be made up elsewhere.
I've been saying for months that Wii needs breakout 3rd party hits to be taken seriously. PS2 got something like 36 3rd party titles to sell over 2 million.
Wii has two:
Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (3.4 million) (This is arguably a 1st party game)
Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock (2 million)
This is despite the fact that the wii's userbase is growing considerably faster than the PS2's did.
Wii has two:
Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (3.4 million) (This is arguably a 1st party game)
Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock (2 million)
This is despite the fact that the wii's userbase is growing considerably faster than the PS2's did.
donny2112 said:And that's not the average I was saying would be pretty much useless.
Heh, well apparently the one you are saying that is pretty much useless seems to suggest otherwise. To have 80 additional third party titles with a mere four in the top ten YTD there is certainly something to be said about that.
damisa said:
Indeed
Jtyettis said:
And that's the sentiment I was trying to head off with my original statement. :lol
What if all 80 of those extra games bombed and sold under 10K each? You don't know.
Maybe they all sold 100K each? You don't know.
It's a pretty much useless statistic and does not prove what you're trying to suggest it proves.
donny2112 said:And that's the sentiment I was trying to head off with my original statement. :lol
What if all 80 of those extra games bombed and sold under 10K each? You don't know.
Maybe they all sold 100K each? You don't know.
It's a pretty much useless statistic and does not prove what you're trying to make it prove.
Exactly why I said it does not pinpoint any 1 games sale's. Yea, mentioned that. That does not however make up for lack of titles being real third party hits, but yet the system has 80 additional third party titles. That's a problem.
VeritasVierge
Member
Finally finished reading this whole thread. Goddamn, this is the kind of meltdowns that made NPD threads of past but recent ones had been lacking. Thank you everyone but special thanks to you Sony fans. I have been irked by the hype LBP got by fanbois once saying it would sell PS3s and and treating this non-game like it was different from non-games on other consoles. Thank you for the spins, bitter tears, hilarious lists (secret PS3 game, really?), and delusional revisionists going back as if Insomniac invented spherical worlds. This thread made my weekend and Monday. Again, thank you all.
Best b-day gift this weekend was the Wii Music bomba!
Best b-day gift this weekend was the Wii Music bomba!
Count Dookkake
Member
Jtyettis said:
Next month's will be even better.
It sold 1.5m before the end of 2007, according to Realtime Worlds.Segata Sanshiro said:
http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=16630
I remember reading that the paid DLC was downloaded nearly a million times, but I can't find that so it might be my memory fucking with me. Either way, ~2/3 of the buyers at the time of of the Halo 3 Beta played in the beta, so it was clearly a major draw. But I do think it would be a hit without the beta bundle based off the success of the demo alone (it was near the top of the Live charts for a couple of weeks running before the game shipped).
Version 3.0
Member
bcn-ron said:
I have my eye on The Conduit, as well. If it does well, though, it'll be by word of mouth. Its first month, it should do okay. Maybe it'll make the top 10. It'll certainly make the Wii top 10. After that, even if it sells great, we may not know it from NPD data.
But I'd love to see it do really well. It would make me happy to see 3rd party publishers decide "the only Wii games that sell are shovelware AND (non-WWII) First Person Shooters".
VeritasVierge
Member
About 4 hours total give or take. Started Fri evening and read bit by bit over the weekend. The laughs just kept coming. :lolJtyettis said:
Version 3.0
Member
Whoa, I just noticed I have a new tag. How long has that been there? The link doesn't seem to go anywhere...