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Official November 2007 NPD Preview Thread

B

BenjaminBirdie

Banned
speculawyer said:
I agree that MS could have gone for the kill with a deeper price cut . . . but they want to make money too . . . and they had to deal with that massive RRoD charge.

But I disagree that they have nothing to fight back with . . . how about two episodes of exclusive GTA IV downloadable content? Alan Wake. Banjo. Gears of War 2? And they can always buy some more third party exclusives.
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Not to mention, there's a whole first half of 2008 multiplatform titles with no big title to make the PS3 the lead sales console.
 
P

papelnabangka

Member
theBishop said:
6pg8lyt.jpg





---

It doesn't surprise me to see the 360 tapering off hard. As time goes on, 360's global weakness is going to become a liability. What surprises me is they have Wii going strong all the way through 2011. I don't see how Nintendo can keep their vastly inferior hardware (both in power and in network functions) interesting in the face of more advanced technology (and presumably games).
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I like hoiw the 360 and the Wii's trendlines look logical and rational while the PS3's just suddenly shoots back up :lol
 
R

rage1973

Member
chespace said:
There will be some pretty big games next year on 360, at least on the 1st party horizon.

3rd party will be no slouch either.

Price cuts is a strange science altogether. Slash the price too much and you may undermine consumer confidence and hurt your bottom line. Don't cut the price for too long and you're seen as milking old tech... it really is just a case by case basis.
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I can think of Too Human, Banjo Kazooie, Lost Odyssey outside Japan, and maybe Alan Wake, Halo Wars, and Gears of War 2 but those are probably 2009 I would guess. What else is out there for first party games? They have a few third party exclusives like Ninja Gaiden and Splinter Cell but if you compare lineups to PS3 it seems similar to the advantage 360 had over PS3 in 2007.

I have a feeling that the huge writeoff due to RROD was the reason they only had a $50 cut instead of the $100 cut.
 
O

Odysseus

Banned
as i said in the npd prediction thread, if ps3 comes through with these numbers, it is an unmitigated disaster.

a full week of sales after black friday? how coly. i mean holy cow.
 
C

chespace

It's not actually trolling if you don't admit it
rage1973 said:
I can think of Too Human, Banjo Kazooie, Lost Odyssey outside Japan, and maybe Alan Wake, Halo Wars, and Gears of War 2 but those are probably 2009 I would guess. What else is out there for first party games?
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No comment, obviously. But yeah, 2008 should be pretty good. :)
 
O

OldJadedGamer

Banned
rage1973 said:
Even though Sony is struggling, Microsoft isn't exactly setting the world on fire. Having barely a $50 price cut 2 years after launching the console is inexcusable. If Microsoft would have been agressive with their pricing this year they could have put the dagger into Sony but with the new year they could still make a decent comeback. If Sony turns things around in 2008 Microsoft doesn't really have any weapons to fight back going forward. There is no Halo 4 to speak of and it appears Playstation 3 is going to have the superior library going forward and it also has the benefit of being the bluray player. Only thing Microsoft can do is release their next console in 2010 which is still 3 years away.
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One thing that isn't being taking into account here is that the previous Sony system sold 120 million where I believe the Xbox is only at 30 million (correct me if I'm wrong) so comparing sales of the PS3 to the 360 isn't fair to the PS3. The fact that the 360 is doing better than a system with that pedigree behind it is very impressive.
 
goldenpp72

goldenpp72

Member
the xbox 1 did near 25 million, the ps2 I believe is now over 120 million. The 360 will likely have at least double the life span and 10x the lineup though.
 
C

chespace

It's not actually trolling if you don't admit it
OldJadedGamer said:
Didn't you think that Perfect Dark Zero was "pretty good" when you reviewed it though?

j/k :)
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No, I thought multiplayer was REALLY good. ;)
 
W

WrathOfOtaibah

Banned
orio7 said:
Depends on how long they're on the market. If MS pulls the 360 in 2011-ish and Sony launches a PS3 Slim for $199 around the same time then I can totally see PS3 LTD run circles around 360 LTD.
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I disagree.

The gap right now, is 5 million in the US and worldwide, it might be 7? million. I don't have exact numbers but I thought it was 13-12-5 million for Wii/360/PS3 respectively. Every month, US sales of 360 are at least a couple hundred thousand more than PS3. PS3's Japan sales, except for very recently, have been perhaps 60,000 or so more than 360's monthly sales. Europe, PS3 is doing a bit better than 360 but the 360 ain't dead. So with an estimate, the 360 is still pulling ahead of the PS3 by tens of thousands of units a month. Not to mention the several million unit head start.

This trend, contrary to theBishop's baffling chart, seems to be continuing. 360 isn't going to drop off in the US anytime soon as hardware and software sales are still going strong. With other price drops, there is little reason to suspect that 360 is going to tank other than the masturbatory fantasies of disgruntled Sony fans.

By the time such a PS3 slim model would come out, at current rates, 360 would have a 8-12 million unit hardware lead over PS3. It would take a year or two for Sony to catch up and again, this assumes that 360 sales would go down to 0 once the PSThree comes out.

I don't want the PS3 to tank but a lot of these predictions about some kind of PS3 resurgence is pure fantasy. Metal Gear Solid series does well but not enough to completely change things around. Same goes for Final Fantasy. We've seen Minna no Golf and Musou do less than half of their PS2 predecessors and they were considered the big dogs in Japan. Other territories aren't putting up strong numbers either. To assume that PS2 sequels will cause Sony domination is no longer true. Sony's best hopes are software like Little Big Planet and Home.
 
I

IronicallyTwisted

Banned
The Experiment said:
I disagree.
I don't want the PS3 to tank but a lot of these predictions about some kind of PS3 resurgence is pure fantasy. Metal Gear Solid series does well but not enough to completely change things around. Same goes for Final Fantasy. We've seen Minna no Golf and Musou do less than half of their PS2 predecessors and they were considered the big dogs in Japan. Other territories aren't putting up strong numbers either. To assume that PS2 sequels will cause Sony domination is no longer true. Sony's best hopes are software like Little Big Planet and Home.
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The problem is the X360 for all intents and purposes isn't even in the Japanese market anymore. It might be the smallest of the big 3 but its going to hurt Microsoft in the long run as it begins to tap out the US market. 3 years from now I would expect the X360 and the PS3 to be fairly similar in terms of total sales because of this. And thats probably a good thing.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
IronicallyTwisted said:
The problem is the X360 for all intents and purposes isn't even in the Japanese market anymore. It might be the smallest of the big 3 but its going to hurt Microsoft in the long run as it begins to tap out the US market. 3 years from now I would expect the X360 and the PS3 to be fairly similar in terms of total sales because of this. And thats probably a good thing.
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The 360 has a long ways to go before it taps out the US market. This generation is just now ramping up.
 
9

909er

Member
IronicallyTwisted said:
The problem is the X360 for all intents and purposes isn't even in the Japanese market anymore. It might be the smallest of the big 3 but its going to hurt Microsoft in the long run as it begins to tap out the US market. 3 years from now I would expect the X360 and the PS3 to be fairly similar in terms of total sales because of this. And thats probably a good thing.
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The 360 is what, 7 million in the US? And the PS2 sold what, 40 million? I would say that even if the 360 doesn't sell PS2 numbers here, it has a looooong way to go before the market is tapped. On the other hand, Japan is not known for a console resurgence from 2nd place, and the PS3 has been worse than last gen's 2nd place system there. To give you an idea, the GC sold what, 5 million in Japan? I really don't think Japan will even remotely be a factor.

Edit: 2 and 3 are too close together
 
O

orio7

Banned
The Experiment said:
I disagree.

The gap right now, is 5 million in the US and worldwide, it might be 7? million. I don't have exact numbers but I thought it was 13-12-5 million for Wii/360/PS3 respectively. Every month, US sales of 360 are at least a couple hundred thousand more than PS3. PS3's Japan sales, except for very recently, have been perhaps 60,000 or so more than 360's monthly sales. Europe, PS3 is doing a bit better than 360 but the 360 ain't dead. So with an estimate, the 360 is still pulling ahead of the PS3 by tens of thousands of units a month. Not to mention the several million unit head start.

This trend, contrary to theBishop's baffling chart, seems to be continuing. 360 isn't going to drop off in the US anytime soon as hardware and software sales are still going strong. With other price drops, there is little reason to suspect that 360 is going to tank other than the masturbatory fantasies of disgruntled Sony fans.

By the time such a PS3 slim model would come out, at current rates, 360 would have a 8-12 million unit hardware lead over PS3. It would take a year or two for Sony to catch up and again, this assumes that 360 sales would go down to 0 once the PSThree comes out.

I don't want the PS3 to tank but a lot of these predictions about some kind of PS3 resurgence is pure fantasy. Metal Gear Solid series does well but not enough to completely change things around. Same goes for Final Fantasy. We've seen Minna no Golf and Musou do less than half of their PS2 predecessors and they were considered the big dogs in Japan. Other territories aren't putting up strong numbers either. To assume that PS2 sequels will cause Sony domination is no longer true. Sony's best hopes are software like Little Big Planet and Home.
Click to expand...

I should have mentioned that I made my "prediction" based on Sony supporting the PS3 for another entire generation after this one and that Xbox 360 goes the same way as the first Xbox by the time MS's new console comes out. A lot of big ifs but I see it being somewhat plausible.

OldJadedGamer said:
One thing that isn't being taking into account here is that the previous Sony system sold 120 million where I believe the Xbox is only at 30 million (correct me if I'm wrong) so comparing sales of the PS3 to the 360 isn't fair to the PS3. The fact that the 360 is doing better than a system with that pedigree behind it is very impressive.
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Haven't we reached a point where "pedigree" is pretty much irrelevant? Nintendo didn't mean much for 2 generations and they dumped Gameboy for DS (at least for the moment) and is having bigger success than ever. SEGA died all together (in the hardware space). And now Sony is struggling and have more or less ruined the Playstation brand.
 
M

Mojovonio

Banned
papelnabangka said:
I like hoiw the 360 and the Wii's trendlines look logical and rational while the PS3's just suddenly shoots back up :lol
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That is the exact minute Final Fantasy comes out.

People will die. It'll be worse than the french PS2 launch.

Blood will be split, Tears shed.

Prepare yourself.
 
9

909er

Member
Mojovonio said:
That is the exact minute Final Fantasy comes out.

People will die. It'll be worse than the french PS2 launch.

Blood will be split, Tears shed.

Prepare yourself.
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I thought that was the MGS4 launch, and the FFXIII launch was the finisher bukakke party on the 360 and Wii by Sony?
 
D

donny2112

Member
PARANO1A said:
So how is Viva Pinata managing to sell similar volumes to Uncharted in its launch month? (UK charts) :lol
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Someone from these boards emailed a Chart-Track official about bundles. Their official word is that manufacturer bundles (i.e. actually inside the box) are not counted toward the software we see in the charts. What is being described here with the extra pack, outside of the box, would most likely not fall under that umbrella.
 
M

Mojovonio

Banned
909er said:
I thought that was the MGS4 launch, and the FFXIII launch was the finisher bukakke party on the 360 and Wii by Sony?
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MGS4 is the Salad, GT5 is the steak, FFXIII is the dessert.



Don't worry Sony loyalists

stella_packacats_2_lg.jpg
 
I

IronicallyTwisted

Banned
909er said:
The 360 is what, 7 million in the US? And the PS3 sold what, 40 million? I would say that even if the 360 doesn't sell PS2 numbers here, it has a looooong way to go before the market is tapped. On the other hand, Japan is not known for a console resurgence from 2nd place, and the PS3 has been worse than last gen's 2nd place system there. To give you an idea, the GC sold what, 5 million in Japan? I really don't think Japan will even remotely be a factor.
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I'm assuming the first "PS3" is actually the "PS2".

You can't simply set trends based on the generation before, it doesn't work that way. The PS3 is going to sell millions in Japan, and thats something the X360 is never going to be able to do. The Wii isn't doing that well over there either: its the DS thats setting the country on fire.

Last gen the PS2 did do 40 million: with 120 million total. So the US accounted for a fair third of the market. Even if the X360 sells in line with the PS2 in the US (which would be an absolute win for MS) its still a long way off from market leader.

The PS3 is doing pretty crappy everywhere, but when you're at rock bottom you can only go up, and I think it has the potential to do so. Not based on my console alligience (I don't even own the stupid thing) but on what I see here and now. Sony are making the right moves in terms of price cuts and exclusives and I think the market will respond in kind.
 
C

critch

Banned
FieryBalrog said:
Piracy FTL
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That and the fact that without a $1500 system the games look like shit. You really expect these games to sell on for what most people is a graphically inferior platform?

UT3 will sell 4:1 on PS3 and 360 vs. PC. Same with Crysis.
 
J

JoshuaJSlone

Member
Heh. I wish I'd bought more PSP on Sim Exchange yesterday; that's the one November hardware they had radically different than my own prediction. However, I wanted to stop buying so I could short more, and today see it exploded upward thanks to Pachter.
Mithos Yggdrasill said:
I wonder if the Wii will really sell more then the NES.
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It absolutely will, unless it follows the unprecedented early sales with an unprecedented drop in sales.
 
O

OldJadedGamer

Banned
orio7 said:
Haven't we reached a point where "pedigree" is pretty much irrelevant? Nintendo didn't mean much for 2 generations and they dumped Gameboy for DS (at least for the moment) and is having bigger success than ever. SEGA died all together (in the hardware space). And now Sony is struggling and have more or less ruined the Playstation brand.
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Nintendo was held to the SNES standard of sales and quality when the N64 was released just like the PS3 is being held to PS2 standards. When the PS2 released, right from the first 48 hours it was on sale, everyone could see that it was going to be a bonifide hit and it matched and exceeded the PS1 numbers pretty much instantly. Isn't the goal of business to at least match and exceed your previous product?

It's like when a football team dominates the Superbowl for two years straight then in the third year, they can't even keep up with the team that just barely made the playoffs last year.
 
A

apujanata

Member
JoshuaJSlone said:
Heh. I wish I'd bought more PSP on Sim Exchange yesterday; that's the one November hardware they had radically different than my own prediction. However, I wanted to stop buying so I could short more, and today see it exploded upward thanks to Pachter.
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I bought lots of (up to my diversification limit) PSP, even before Patcher' prediction release. The reason is because my own prediction differ significantly compared to Simexchange value. I bought on 45.49 DKP, and now I enjoy 9.91% profit. Yummy.

The only one with bigger profit, percentage wise, is Rock Band (X360), at 13.3% profit. (My top profit portfolio).

About Patcher's effect, maybe it is not because of him, but because of NeoGAF aggregate, and the fact that a lot of NeoGAF has joined simexchange.
 
O

orio7

Banned
OldJadedGamer said:
Nintendo was held to the SNES standard of sales and quality when the N64 was released just like the PS3 is being held to PS2 standards. When the PS2 released, right from the first 48 hours it was on sale, everyone could see that it was going to be a bonifide hit and it matched and exceeded the PS1 numbers pretty much instantly. Isn't the goal of business to at least match and exceed your previous product?
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It is. But when it does/does not it's because of the current product and not the one before it. Sure pedigree might sell a few units but if it mattered then PS3 wouldn't be a failure.
 
J

JoshuaJSlone

Member
apujanata said:
I bought lots of (up to my diversification limit) PSP, even before Patcher' prediction release. The reason is because my own prediction differ significantly compared to Simexchange value. I bought on 45.49 DKP, and now I enjoy 9.91% profit. Yummy.

The only one with bigger profit, percentage wise, is Rock Band (X360), at 13.3% profit. (My top profit portfolio).

About Patcher's effect, maybe it is not because of him, but because of NeoGAF aggregate, and the fact that a lot of NeoGAF has joined simexchange.
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I've gotta think it was due to Pachter. NeoGAF predictions have been closed for a few days and the simExchange league is still a pretty small portion of the whole, but the PSP boost was all today.

Though it has gone back down a lot since earlier today.
 
L

legend166

Member
beerbelly said:
When Sony releases its bombshell next March (MGS4) I am sure MS will price drop their console another $50. Perfect timing for Gran Theft Auto 4 too IMO.
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MGS4 isn't going to be the killer app people are expecting it to be, I think.
 
F

FirstInHell

Banned
Mushashi said:
Your the Ex-1UP Luke Smith right?

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=213477

Germany/Spain/France

PS3 versions of CoD4/NFS/AC ahead of X360 versions.
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That accounts for what, less than 5% of Europe?

The same link shows that 360 software sales for Australia & Sweeden are better than the PS3's sales. Your argument went from "Europe" to Spain/France/Germany which are very different classifications.

Mushashi said:
PS3 doesn't necessarily rely on it's exclusives to beat X360 in Europe, just becoming the preferred platform for people to buy multiplatform titles on, of which there is some evidence in recent Euro software charts. Europe and NA have both similar numbers of total PS2 sold, so Europe can support similar numbers of hardware to NA in the longterm. Unless NA grows in global importance, discounting the rest of the world is short-sighted for eventual LTD of the competing home consoles.
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A

AniHawk

Member
GhaleonEB said:
Nice find. From the charting in Europe, that must be very heavily stacked in the US. I might have lowballed it in the software predition. >.<
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It was pretty frontloaded too. Assassin's Creed and Call of Duty 4 made people forget about it. It's had some nice word of mouth to help it though. Such a good game too.
 
H

HK-47

Oh, bitch bitch bitch.
knitoe said:
I call it BS. GAF told me ME would bomb.

Back to playing ME through 3rd time
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Actually people thought it would do really well since they thought it was gonna get a Gears type marketing campaign. When it didnt and it didnt do as well on the UK charts as people had hoped, everyone started tempering their predictions
 
I

IronicallyTwisted

Banned
AniHawk said:
It was pretty frontloaded too. Assassin's Creed and Call of Duty 4 made people forget about it. It's had some nice word of mouth to help it though. Such a good game too.
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I think its important both Assassins Creed and Mass Effect do well. Both are incredibly ambitious games and developers need to see that sort of vision is rewarded, even with less than perfect execution.
 
D

DeaconKnowledge

Member
Wow, i'd like to say that I thought all of the "The PS3 will come back in America, you'll see!" talk was over and done with, but here this thread is.

At least the majority of posters in it have some sense.
 
A

apujanata

Member
Son of Godzilla said:
Did that Assassin's Creed 1 million turn out to be shipped?
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We may have to wait until NPD before we can guess whether it is shipped or sold. IMO, it is shipped / sold to retailers, not sold to customer.

I think a lot of people will lose a lot of money on Mass Effect. The reason (that I have posted in simExchange) :
me on simExchange said:
Yeah, don't forget that US NPD Nov 07 (does not include Canada) only cover November 4 - December 1.
From IGN :
Mass effect is released Nov 20 in US (only 2 weeks for US), Nov 22 in Australia (not covered by NPD US), Nov 23 in Europe (not covered by NPD).

Since 1 Milion is for WW, and it is 3 weeks figure (not two weeks for NPD Nov 07), and since we are not sure whether it is shipped (usual MSFT reference) or sold to (NPD reference), it is quite dangerous to assume too high a sales # for mass effect. A lot of DKP can be burned/lost if you estimate too high.

If you assume 40% US, 40% Europe, and 20% for the remaining region (CAnada + Australia + Singapore etc), and assuming 80% of Mass Effect is done on the first 2 weeks (front loaded), and assuming that the 1 Million figure is shipped figure, not sold figure, and using 80% sold through figure, then the US figure can be only as high as = 80% (for two weeks) x 80% (convert shipped to sold) x 40% (for US only) x 1 Million = 256K.

You can change the calculation to percentage that you are comfortable with, and change your bidding / position accordingly.
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