-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Official May 2008 NPD Thread - Wii, GTA IV, and more Wii
- Thread starter sonycowboy
- Start date
Hwang Seong-Gyeong
Banned
I ask myself this question everytime I check the monthly NPD numbers. When the hell will all these Wii hardware sales bring in the quality exclusive third party support? I'm fucking serious.
norinrad21
Banned
Hwang Seong-Gyeong said:
Why should they just ignore their millions of HD investment to support the wii?
PuppetSlave
Member
norinrad21 said:
To make more money. A common goal for companies as I understand it.
Xisiqomelir
Member
PuppetSlave said:
I can see how people can fall for astrolad's routine since he's untagged, but norinrad's positions are hyperlinked right under his name. These kinds of posts shouldn't happen.
Haunted
Member
I haven't seen a third party game on Wii with a tenth of the marketing push of games like Gears or GTA IV.-MB- said:
In fact, the only games which were pushed like mad on the Wii were first party games like Wii Fit or Mario Kart - and look how they're selling!
People always seem to underestimate/ignore the differences in marketing budgets when discussing third party sales on the various platforms. Not talking about dev costs of the games itself, but marketing.
Wii is getting quality third party games (That sentence sounds really odd when you say it out loud.. for native english speakers at least.. 
). We've had PLENTY of announcements and even some pleasant announcements for NA (like Little King Story).
Bottom line is this is the first time EVER in the industry that the dev houses (well, the entire industry really) screwed up this bad on predicting the gen. I honestly believe the success and hierarchy or previous gens was in some part due to the way the devs and pubs predicated and bet on the gen. Would the PS2 had won last gen had 3rd parties supported the Dreamcast out of the gate like they had supported the PS2? Would the SNES have overall won the 16-bit era if you didn't have all of the Nintendo exclusives still lined up like they had (primarily Square and Enix)? This gen every major pub and dev bet on the HD consoles winning to a pretty significant budget in their development process. What Nintendo was able to do was bring in whole new demographics that didn't care that Wii wasn't getting RE5, Rock Band, Assassin's Creed, GTA, etc. They wanted Wii Sports, Wii Fit, and along the same lines as Brain Training and Nintendogs. let's face it, DS started luring the demographic in.. Wii just took it to the home console sector.
And of course that snowballed. now we're seeing half the top 10 as Wii titles, we're seeing third party titles (well, at least GH3) stick around in it, and we're seeing more solid 3rd party announcements. I have echoed the sentiments of everyone else (When is this going to happen?) and we are now, almost two years later, finally seeing it take shape... But as others have mentioned, these houses have MILLIONS invested in the HD development tools and hundreds of thousands of hours invested in development of HD games. Even though they were wrong on the outcome, they can't scrap these games. But going forward we are definitely seeing the result of Wii being the number 1 console in terms of third party support. It will likely just end up taking at least half the generation for it to get there. Apparently that's how long it takes to correct a missed call on which console(s) will end up on top.
). We've had PLENTY of announcements and even some pleasant announcements for NA (like Little King Story).Bottom line is this is the first time EVER in the industry that the dev houses (well, the entire industry really) screwed up this bad on predicting the gen. I honestly believe the success and hierarchy or previous gens was in some part due to the way the devs and pubs predicated and bet on the gen. Would the PS2 had won last gen had 3rd parties supported the Dreamcast out of the gate like they had supported the PS2? Would the SNES have overall won the 16-bit era if you didn't have all of the Nintendo exclusives still lined up like they had (primarily Square and Enix)? This gen every major pub and dev bet on the HD consoles winning to a pretty significant budget in their development process. What Nintendo was able to do was bring in whole new demographics that didn't care that Wii wasn't getting RE5, Rock Band, Assassin's Creed, GTA, etc. They wanted Wii Sports, Wii Fit, and along the same lines as Brain Training and Nintendogs. let's face it, DS started luring the demographic in.. Wii just took it to the home console sector.
And of course that snowballed. now we're seeing half the top 10 as Wii titles, we're seeing third party titles (well, at least GH3) stick around in it, and we're seeing more solid 3rd party announcements. I have echoed the sentiments of everyone else (When is this going to happen?) and we are now, almost two years later, finally seeing it take shape... But as others have mentioned, these houses have MILLIONS invested in the HD development tools and hundreds of thousands of hours invested in development of HD games. Even though they were wrong on the outcome, they can't scrap these games. But going forward we are definitely seeing the result of Wii being the number 1 console in terms of third party support. It will likely just end up taking at least half the generation for it to get there. Apparently that's how long it takes to correct a missed call on which console(s) will end up on top.
Mantorok
Member
I think companies have got it right, they shouldn't be putting too much effort into the Wii, because look around people, there are alot of chumps who buy the Wii and pretty much leave it to gather dust, occasionally playing a bit of Wii Sports.
Most Wii owners are casual - period, this is undisputable, I've come across around 5-10 people I know who never buy consoles who have a Wii, when I start to talk about decent games and reviews etc. their eyes glaze over as if I'm talking in a completely different fucking language.
So really, why should 3rd parties put more effort in...?
Most Wii owners are casual - period, this is undisputable, I've come across around 5-10 people I know who never buy consoles who have a Wii, when I start to talk about decent games and reviews etc. their eyes glaze over as if I'm talking in a completely different fucking language.
So really, why should 3rd parties put more effort in...?
norinrad21
Banned
otake said:
:lol :lol
Its sink or swim for 3rd parties. Most of their HD endeavors are failures and yet they refuse to see where the money is at.
Mantorok
Member
borghe said:
You think GAF represents the 15-odd million Wii owners do you? Ok realistically I would expect that most 360 or PS3 owners own a Wii too, which means that you can only really account for PS3 and 360 sales combined, when you consider this the Wii isn't realistically winning much when it comes to gamers.
Mantorok said:
Just because you know a few people who would never buy a console doesn't mean the world works that way. The Wii is the top selling software system and has been for a while now. All those casuals playing Wiisports from time to time must be like 5 people, probably the ones you know.
This is true. And you can be pretty sure these houses will want to recoup, and extend the investment in the HD technology they made, before they invest in a x720/PS4 technology. My bet is they will be pleased to develop for the Wii HD console with their current assets. This could have an impact on Microsoft roadmap, as they may not have the whole industry follow them this time if they play the first to next gen mover card.borghe said:
This is another thing Nintendo disrupted: the wii will make the industry run at their tempo in the coming years.
PuppetSlave
Member
Xisiqomelir said:
I don't think people click on tag hyperlinks before quoting... I know I don't.
ahh.. but I ALSO gave anecdotal evidence that directly countered yours, not just GAF.Mantorok said:
The point is that Nintendo games in general are seeing an improved level of performance from last gen and while the third party sales are lower than the 360 behemoth, they too are up from Gamecube third party sales last gen. So this "gamers don't take the wii seriously" is obviously full of shit when core games, first party and third, are selling better than they did last gen on gamecube. and as has been mentioned, core games are also dying HARD on the 360 and PS3 outside of the obviously notable titles/franchises (Halo, Gears, GTA, COD, etc). So it would be one thing if Wii was still seeing piss poor sales instead of actually improving, and third parties as a whole were flying on the HD systems outside of the monster titles/franchises, but neither of these are the case, which in turn pretty much invalidates your whole theory.
Gamecocks625
Member
Mantorok said:
Well, that about wraps it up. Thank you for your indepth market research. The entire industry salutes your efforts
Toy Soldier
Member
Mantorok said:
I dunno, I'd say GAF is probably more representative of a significant chunk of Wii owners than are your 5-10 Buddiis.
Captain Smoker
Member
Just a Top10?
No additional numbers [simexchange?]? ;___;
No additional numbers [simexchange?]? ;___;
Infernal Monkey
Member
Mantorok said:
Most NES, PSOne, PS2 etc. owners were casual gamers too.
Guess developers should never put effort into anything ever again.
Scottlarock
Banned
I think this might move more games to the 360. GTA was a PS2 player, but most sales almost 2-1 went 360. makes me hope that FFX13 might go muti and have would have done better at being multi-patform.
Let me wax hypothetical for a moment:
At this stage I'm more interested to see what happens next generation in regards to software support. I think for most of this gen 3rd parties will just ride it out, trying to pump out the next blockbuster for the 360. Most of them will fail. Revenues will rise, profits will fall.
I think next generation Nintendo will win again. I think they'll put out a Wii 2 in 2012. The 'Wii' brand has massive mindshare at the moment. I thinking of another PS1 --> PS2 scenario.
What will 3rd parties do then? See the Wii as an anomaly (LOL) and put all their eggs back in the Sony/MS market? I think if that happens, you'll see a lot of closures next generation.
At this stage I'm more interested to see what happens next generation in regards to software support. I think for most of this gen 3rd parties will just ride it out, trying to pump out the next blockbuster for the 360. Most of them will fail. Revenues will rise, profits will fall.
I think next generation Nintendo will win again. I think they'll put out a Wii 2 in 2012. The 'Wii' brand has massive mindshare at the moment. I thinking of another PS1 --> PS2 scenario.
What will 3rd parties do then? See the Wii as an anomaly (LOL) and put all their eggs back in the Sony/MS market? I think if that happens, you'll see a lot of closures next generation.
legend166 said:
This is actually why I don't think third parties will ride it out on the HD systems (unless they are incredibly stubborn-blind-stupid). Most of todays best-selling franchises were established in previous generations (Halo, Elder Scrolls, COD, MGS, Final Fantasy, Guitar Hero, Madden, Mario, Zelda, Mario Kart).
The writings on the wall for where the industry is headed (motion controls). They have to start putting in the legwork in both development and marketing and cultivate some franchises this generation, or else they could seriously be looking at closing up shop by the time next generation rolls around.
leroy hacker
Member
Scrubking said:
This theory explains exactly why someone like Mark Rein is so hostile to the Wii. He sells his games based (partly or largely) on technology, in addition to selling tech itself(the engine). As high end technology becomes less important to selling games, so does his business.
But I don't think Capcom can be explained so easily. It's probably a combination of having pre-committed their teams to large projects(DMC4, RE5) and fallout from the Capcom 5 and RE exclusivity fiasco.
Also, Capcom is not the company it used to be. The most talented designers are gone and Inafune is in control now. HD gaming seems to be where he wants to go, following a blockbuster model. The massive marketing campaigns Capcom have recently been using to sell their big games fall flat on their face if a game has unimpressive graphics. Also, I have always suspected that he doesn't like Nintendo very much, though I don't have any hard evidence for that.
It is incredibly frustrating to me though. I wish Capcom would announce something even as interesting as Dark Void.
TheKingsCrown
Banned
Okay this is getting fucking ridiculous.Mantorok said:
Can we PLEASE stop putting this problem on Nintendo's plate as though it were their fault? Can we PLEASE stop assuming that this problem exists because we know a "couple people"?
Can we PLEASE stop directing anger at a console manufacturer because third parties weren't fucking smart enough to accurately predict the industry in which they operate?
Let's state very plainly what all these arguments boil down to:
Many 3rd parties internally: "Nintendo is now the market leader. But we made most of our investments in HD consoles so, instead of looking at our development as fixed costs and abandoning them, we are going to try to get a few pennies out of them and make ourselves unprofitable instead of develop games with Wii in mind as the head platform. For Wii, we will shovel any asset which has any chance of being profitable as long as it doesn't cost us more than X. We will avoid putting good games on Wii and in so doing will leave ridiculous amounts of money on the table."
3rd parties and ridiculous GAFers: "WII OWNERS DONT PLAY 3rd PARTY GAMES ON THEIR SYSTEMS! OH NOEZ! CASUAL GAMERS DONT BUY GAMEZ! OH NOEZ! "
Rational GAFers: "3rd party games on Wii suck balls for the most part. We play the good ones!"
Troll type GAFers / ridiculous GAFers: "But 3rd party games don't sell on Wii! If they sold then 3rd parties would put more of them on the system!"
Rational GAFers: "But 3rd party games on Wii suck balls for the most part. We buy only the good ones!"
Troll type GAFers / ridiculous GAFers: "But 3rd party games don't sell on Wii! If they sold then 3rd parties would put more of them on the system!"
And around and around we go.
Can we please stop fucking apologizing for dumbass developers? And please start buying all the independent studio games which have appeared out of fucking nowhere and stop discussing ONLY the 3rd parties who were relevant in the past, but who may now have their heads up their asses? This is what happens when people make mistakes in business. And trust me, the profitability numbers of these big ass companies are going to suffer, you just don't see it yet.
This is what we're doing over and over and over again and I'm sick of it. There are a FEW select third parties and a FEW select third party dev games which GET it. The rest is up to the indy developers, and they are coming, trust me. They are coming to take the money off the table that their bigger and more powerful cousins blindly left.
Pureauthor
Member
leroy hacker said:
Their 'most talented designers are gone' precisely because their games were a money sinkhole! Clover didn't fold because Capcom didn't like them, it folded because their games, almost entirely across the board, had disappointing results on the market.
And really, of all third parties to criticize - Capcom? Really? They've made/ are making worthwhile stuff for every single significant system on the market. No other developer can be said to be doing this, with the possible exception of EA, depending on whether you like their games or not. They don't advertise their Wii stuff because there's relatively little advertising would do for them anyway - and they're still seeing returns, sizable ones at that.
lowlylowlycook
Member
Mantorok said:
The difference between RL and gaf is that you can't see our eyes glaze over when you type.
AugustDivision
Banned
Here we go guys. UNDISPUTABLE EVIDENCE. Finnnnally someone with some serious analytical experience like Mantorok was able to come along and do a comprehensive study of 5-10 people for us to know, WITHOUT DISPUTE, that most Wii owners are casual. PERIOD. We shouldn't even discuss it ever again.Mantorok said:
-------
Here's a novel concept: Wii owners are a healthy mix of both. I know people like the ones you mentioned but the difference being these people do realize there are plenty of good games out for the console and are interested to here what else is available. I also know people like myself who have owned over 10 games for the console at any given time and are getting the most out of it.
Either way your presentation of anecdotal evidence and refutation of someone else's is simply amazing.
Pureauthor
Member
lowlylowlycook said:
No, the difference between RL and GAF is that in RL it's considered rude to roll your eyes, ignore the guy, and go do something else.
borghe said:Wii is getting quality third party games (That sentence sounds really odd when you say it out loud.. for native english speakers at least..
Bottom line is this is the first time EVER in the industry that the dev houses (well, the entire industry really) screwed up this bad on predicting the gen. I honestly believe the success and hierarchy or previous gens was in some part due to the way the devs and pubs predicated and bet on the gen. Would the PS2 had won last gen had 3rd parties supported the Dreamcast out of the gate like they had supported the PS2? Would the SNES have overall won the 16-bit era if you didn't have all of the Nintendo exclusives still lined up like they had (primarily Square and Enix)? This gen every major pub and dev bet on the HD consoles winning to a pretty significant budget in their development process. What Nintendo was able to do was bring in whole new demographics that didn't care that Wii wasn't getting RE5, Rock Band, Assassin's Creed, GTA, etc. They wanted Wii Sports, Wii Fit, and along the same lines as Brain Training and Nintendogs. let's face it, DS started luring the demographic in.. Wii just took it to the home console sector.
And of course that snowballed. now we're seeing half the top 10 as Wii titles, we're seeing third party titles (well, at least GH3) stick around in it, and we're seeing more solid 3rd party announcements. I have echoed the sentiments of everyone else (When is this going to happen?) and we are now, almost two years later, finally seeing it take shape... But as others have mentioned, these houses have MILLIONS invested in the HD development tools and hundreds of thousands of hours invested in development of HD games. Even though they were wrong on the outcome, they can't scrap these games. But going forward we are definitely seeing the result of Wii being the number 1 console in terms of third party support. It will likely just end up taking at least half the generation for it to get there. Apparently that's how long it takes to correct a missed call on which console(s) will end up on top.
If this is the case, what motivation do third parties have to put these games on Wii? Zero, since the Wii userbase doesn't care about these games as you have pointed out.
Games like DMC4 and GTA4 are enjoying record sales on HD consoles. Yes, they are selling better and faster than previous iterations.
TheKingsCrown
Banned
Their incentive is not to put RE5 on Wii in its current form, or GTA4 on Wii in its current form. Their incentive is to develop these games ground up for the Wii and MARKET them to the Wii audience. Then the Wii audience will care. Its the whole package, not just the game.Mrbob said:
Nintendo just won a generation by focusing on the whole package. You'd think that 3rd parties would take notice.
But 3rd parties are stuck in the "We must use the assets for EVERYTHING or they're not worth developing!" mode.
AugustDivision
Banned
Woah, hold up. Neither of those games were (when launched) multiplatform last generation.Mrbob said:
Try again.
leroy hacker
Member
Pureauthor said:
Remember, Shinji Mikami left too. I don't think he lost Capcom very much money. Anyway note that I never said Capcom was losing money by following their current strategy, so I'm not sure how your point is relevant to my statement. The reason Capcom sticks to their current business strategy is precisely because it does make money for them.
Where did I say Capcom should advertise their current Wii games more? In fact I said TV advertising wouldn't work for them. My point about advertising was that they're not making more Wii games because they can't sell them using their usual business strategy. That they are making fewer Wii games is simply a fact.
Upcoming Capcom console games:
PS360+Wii(supposedly)
Moto GP 08
Wii
Monster Hunter 3
Neopets Puzzle Adventure
Spyborgs
We Love Golf(western release)
PS360
Resident Evil 5
Dark Void
Bionic Commando
Street Fighter IV
Bionic Commando: Rearmed
SSFIIHD
I'm sure I'm missing a few XBLA+PSN games, but those are definitely all of their announced Wii games.
AugustDivision said:
Don't you just love anecdotal evidence? Everyone approaches it as if the evidence they've gathered is the only relevant data. Doesn't matter that there are folks on GAF who know the same amount of people that buy any and everything for their Wii, the guy you quoted knows 5-10 people who play Wii Sports once in a while. UNDISPUTABLE.
Luckyman said:
Not sure if you noticed, but the 360 was ahead in March and April by a slim margin. Don't get me wrong, being a cheap bastard I think every console needs a price drop, but one month with a ~20K lead and now the PS3 has the 360 "locked to 3rd place in monthly NPDs from now on"? Really?