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Official Feb NPD 2007 Prediction Thread

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S

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
bunkum said:
Game Boy Advance 120k
Nintendo DS 240k
PlayStation 2 215k
PlayStation 3 175k
PlayStation Portable 150k
Wii 350k
Xbox 360 205k
Click to expand...



Hmmmmm...
 
N

nextgeneration

Member
My first time predictions. This is my first time taking a stab at this on gaf, as I've been watching from the sidelines all this time. :D

I only care about the big 3 consoles, so here goes:

wii = 375k
360 = 270k
ps3 = 175k

The 360 numbers are way too high, I think, but these were the numbers I went with when both my friend and I tried to predict numbers for February. I made these predictions all the way back from 2/24 with my friend, whom I've beaten 2 months in a row (We made predictions for Dec/Jan). :)
 
M

megaman511

Member
Guess I might as well take a stab at it too:

Wii 340k
PS3 190k
360 260k
PS2 240k
DS 300k
PSP 185k
GBA 90k

The PS2 probably outsold the 360 though.
 
S

sonycowboy

Member
bunkum said:
Game Boy Advance 120k
Nintendo DS 240k
PlayStation 2 215k
PlayStation 3 175k
PlayStation Portable 150k
Wii 350k
Xbox 360 205k
Click to expand...

My predictions:

Wii 325k
DS 240k
360 235k
PS2 230k
PSP 160k
PS3 160k
GBA 135k
GCN 22k
XBX 0k
 
J

JavyOO7

Member
Wii: 320k
X360: 250k
PS3: 190K
DS: 355k
PSP: 200k
GBA: 155k
PS2: 285k

Crackdown: over 500k
Lost Planet: 400k
New Super Mario Bros: 130k
Diddy Kong Racing: 200k
Hotel Dusk: 100k
 
N

Nuclear Muffin

Banned
My first ever H/W prediction on neogaf! wish me luck!

Wii: 292k
360: 256k
Ps3: 167k
DS: 286k
Gba: 157k
PS2: 170k

Edit: gah, forgot PSP...

Psp: 175k
 
S

sonycowboy

Member
http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4936&Itemid=2

Lazard predicts: 400k Nintendo Wiis, 300k PS2s, 275k Xbox 360s and 200k PS3s sold.

Lazard Predicts Feb. Game Sales Up 25%

Ahead of monthly NPD Group market research data, Lazard Capital Markets forecasts that videogame software sales were up 25 to 30 percent in February.

ImageThe firm said that sales for last month were likely driven by next-gen software sales and “solid” PS2 and Nintendo DS game sales.

In particular, new titles including, Crackdown, Lost Planet, Wii Play and Ghost Rider were the biggest sellers for the month, according to Lazard. Catalog titles such as The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess, Call of Duty 3, Rainbow Six Vegas, WWE Smackdown vs. Raw 2007 and various EA Sports titles also continued to sell through February.

Lazard’s predictions are in line with Wedbush Morgan Securities', which predicted 20 percent growth for February to $415 million. February 2006 results were $345 million.

The firm added that it believes console unit sales were solid during the month with around 400k Nintendo Wiis, 300k PS2s, 275k Xbox 360s and 200k PS3s sold. Lazard expects DS sales to remain strong, while Sony is expected "to focus more attention on expanding the PSP market in 2007."

NPD is expected to release results to its clients after market close today.
Click to expand...
 
S

sonycowboy

Member
AdmiralViscen said:
Wouldn't 270k 360's be really, really high? Could Crackdown really push them to that number?
Click to expand...

I was going to push a higher 360 numbers because of the insane Crackdown numbers we're likely to see, but decided against it, because even in November with Gears of War, the 360 experience absolutely no bump and had relatively low HW numbers.

The other factor on the plus side for the 360 is they're no longer competing against the ghost of the PS3. People have seen the PS3 and it's games and can now fairly compare the two and so some people who might have been on the fence or leaning towards Sony might slowly opt for the 360.
 
F

FrankT

Member
Just saw this over the wire;

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=13155

Lazard: Feb Sales Up 25-30% On 360 Exclusives

In his latest note to investors, Lazard Capital Markets' Colin Sebastian expects the NPD's February software sales results scheduled to be released later today will show a 25-30 percent rise, driven by Xbox 360 exclusives Crackdown and Lost Planet, as well as Nintendo's Wii Play and 2K Game's movie inspired Ghost Rider.

Commented Sebastian, “Today after the market close, NPD is scheduled to release February sell-through data for console and handheld software and hardware. Our directional forecast suggests that software sales could be up 25%-30% year over year, driven by incremental sales of next-generation software (Xbox 360, Wii and PS3) as well as solid PS2 and Nintendo DS game sales.”

Other titles called out by the analyst as of particular importance to February sales include previous holiday window releases such as The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess for the Wii and GameCube, as well as Call of Duty 3, WWE Smackdown vs. Raw 2007, Rainbow Six Vegas, and various EA Sports titles.

The analyst added: “We believe console hardware unit sales remained solid in February, with approximately 400k Nintendo Wii’s (still in short supply), 300k PS2s, 275k Xbox 360s, and 200k PS3s. We also believe DS handheld sales remain strong, while we expect Sony to focus more attention on expanding the PSP market in 2007.”

Looking at individual publishers, Sebastian wrote that Lazard expects Activision's sell-through to be up by approximately 40 percent for the period, driven by sales of Guitar Hero 2 and Call of Duty 3. The group also continues to expect a “robust lineup” of titles from the publisher, including movie based releases Spider-Man, Shrek, Transformers, and Bee Movie, as well as sequels to Tony Hawk, Guitar Hero, and Call of Duty.

The group expects less positive results from major publisher and developer Electronic Arts, with results down 5-10 percent in February with releases such as NBA Street Homecourt, Arena Football, SSX Blur and MVP 07 NCAA Baseball. However, Lazard continues to expect a that the company's 2008 product lineup “should lead to a year of solid growth and margin expansion” for EA going forward.

Finally, the analyst commented that THQ's February sell-through should be up nearly 40 percent, driven by strong sales of WWE Smackdown vs. Raw 2007 and Cars as well as “solid third-party market share” on the Wii and Nintendo DS. Sebastian added that following a “very strong” 2006, the group anticipates “slower, but solid growth in 2007” for THQ, with new releases such as Supreme Commander, Ratatouille and Frontlines Fuel of War, along with sequels to WWE Smackdown, Juiced, Stuntman and Nickelodeon franchises.

Lazard has maintained its “buy” rating for each of these companies, as well as for major retail outlet GameStop, as Sebastian explained, “We believe the fundamental underpinnings remain intact for healthy 15%+ industry growth in 2007. We also believe there is long-term upside potential in shares of software publishers and specialty retailer GameStop, with accelerating growth expected in the next-generation console cycle.”
Click to expand...

Crackdown here we go.
 
S

SouthernDandie

Member
wii - 310k
ds - 240k
ps2 - 230k
360 - 190k
ps3 - 180k
psp - 100k
gba - 70k
gcb - 3k
xbx - 0k

edit - just saw jtyettis' post, now I'm thinking I'm way off on the 360 :lol
 
B

BenjaminBirdie

Banned
Jtyettis said:
Just saw this over the wire;

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=13155



Crackdown here we go.
Click to expand...

Redmond has got to love that headline.

Crack. CrackCrackCrackDOWN.


ETA:
04.jpg

BOOM.
:D :lol :) :D :lol :) :D :lol :) :D :lol :) :D :lol :) :D :lol :)
 
B

Bungalow Bob

Banned
donny2112 said:
I think by the time I got to your prediction (there were a lot of predictions for January), I was tired of recording people who didn't make close to full predictions, since they had no chance at the "Main" title. (If you don't predict for a console, I assume you think it will sell zero, which pretty much screws over your chances.) The second part was just a flippancy, as sonycowboy was the real winner.

I wasn't trying to slight you, in particular.
Click to expand...

That´s cool. I definitely appreciate you keeping track of this. :)
 
S

sonycowboy

Member
Here's some commentary from an "anonymous guest" for those who might be interested regarding HW sales. It basically takes a "stay the course" view of HW sales, unless there's a specific incident which would cause the HW to change that course (price drop, monster game, shortages (Wii), breakout performance (DS), etc). It proves out for the month of January and most likely for a number of other non-holiday months as well.

anonymous said:
From January 1 - October 28 last year (41 weeks), the 360 sold through 2,284,000 units in the U.S., according to NPD. That's 55,700 per week. Remarkably, in January, the console sold a whopping 58,750 per week.

If you want the other figures for Jan-Oct 06:

GBA--1.7 million (42K/week), slightly below in January at 36K/week
NDS--2.8 million (68K/week), caveat that sales spiked with the Lite, and
tapered off to 48K/week in January with shortages
PSP--1.7 million (41K/week), note it held the pattern in January at 42K/week
PS2--2.65 million (65K/week), note that it sold 60K/week in January

The PS3 and Wii are more dependent upon shipments. I think PS3 could be
down slightly in February, as it averaged 49K/week, but don't think it drops
below 180K. The Wii sold as many as they shipped, and that's anyone's
guess.
Click to expand...
 
N

nextgeneration

Member
AdmiralViscen said:
Wouldn't 270k 360's be really, really high? Could Crackdown really push them to that number?
Click to expand...

Yeah, looking back, I think the 270k figure is too high. Who knows, though? Maybe Crackdown will indeed spike up 360 sales significantly, but I tend to agree with what Sonycowboy says, in that when Gears launched, there wasn't a huge spike in hardware sales.

We shall see, though. Final results today! :D
 
C

Chibbi Brady

Member
Yeah it's amazing how constant sales are. That's usually what I do when predicting, I go back and take an average of the previous 3 months and factor in what affect, if any, the software released that month could have.
 
S

starship

psycho_snake's and The Black Brad Pitt's B*TCH
Prediction:

DS - 364k
Wii - 323k
X360 - 243k
PS2 - 230k
PS3 - 202k
PSP - 176k
GBA - 165k
GC - 16k
Xbox - 540
 
T

TJ Bennett

TJ Hooker
First stab at the ol' monthly prediction ...

WII - 310k
NDS - 205k
GBA - 110k
CUB - 25k

360 - 255k
Xbox - 1k

PS2 - 260k
PS3 - 185k
PSP - 160k



Crackdown - 555k
 
D

deftangel

took a programming course
Virgin Predictions :lol

DS - 385k
Wii - 347k
X360 - 221k
PS2 - 225k
PS3 - 187k
PSP - 168k
GBA - 190k
GC - 12k
Xbox - 1k
 
D

duk

Banned
My guess:

Game Boy Advance 115k
Nintendo DS 220k
Gamecube 2k
PlayStation 2 215k
PlayStation 3 180k
PlayStation Portable 135k
Wii 345k
Xbox 360 205k
Xbox <1k
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Nuclear Muffin said:
So how long is it still to go until NPD data gets released?

Also how long till media create hardware sales?
Click to expand...
Two hours until NPD is released, but probably 3-4 until it hits GAF.
 
M

Mrbob

Member
Ok I'm going to take my first crack at hardware predictions. Xbox 360 normally sells 55K/week, but I think Crackdown gave it a slight boost!

X360 - 260K
PS3 - 170K
Wii - 330K
PS2 - 280K
DS - 310K
PSP - 160K

I'm a little hesistant to rate Crackdown too high in regards to sales, but I'm going with 700K for it!
 
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