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[boontje]

[360 Assassin's Creed] 500k
[360 Call of Duty 4] 700k
[360 Halo 3] 400k
[360 Mass Effect] 375k
[360 Rock Band] 350k
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 275k
[PS2 Rock Band] 200k
[PS3 Assassin's Creed] 250k
[PS3 Call of Duty 4] 300k
[PS3 The Orange Box] 100k
[PS3 Uncharted] 125k
[WII Guitar Hero III] 400k
[WII Play] 750k
[WII Super Mario Galaxy] 1100k
[WII Mario & Sonic Olympics] 400k

 

[Brakara]

[360 Assassin's Creed] 750k
[360 Call of Duty 4] 1075k
[360 Halo 3] 525k
[360 Mass Effect] 350k
[360 Rock Band] 400k
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 300k
[PS2 Rock Band] 250k
[PS3 Assassin's Creed] 300k
[PS3 Call of Duty 4] 400k
[PS3 The Orange Box] 100k
[PS3 Uncharted] 150k
[WII Guitar Hero III] 750k
[WII Play] 850k
[WII Super Mario Galaxy] 1400k
[WII Mario & Sonic Olympics] 600k

 

[DayShallCome]

Thanks again Donny for all the hard work. The organization makes this all very enjoyable.

I wish I could say that my first place finish last month was all skill, but this software stuff is just near impossible to get a real handle on.

Oh well, here goes for this month:

[360 Assassin's Creed] 750k
[360 Call of Duty 4] 650k
[360 Halo 3] 425k
[360 Mass Effect] 350k
[360 Rock Band] 300k
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 335k
[PS2 Rock Band] 245k
[PS3 Assassin's Creed] 250k
[PS3 Call of Duty 4] 200k
[PS3 The Orange Box] 130k
[PS3 Uncharted] 95k
[WII Guitar Hero III] 500k
[WII Play] 650k
[WII Super Mario Galaxy] 950k
[WII Mario & Sonic Olympics] 525k

Good luck Everybody!

 

[donny2112]

Thanks, DayShallCome.

< 2 hours left to predict!

 

[Clever Pun]

[360 Assassin's Creed] 720k
[360 Call of Duty 4] 800k
[360 Halo 3] 340k
[360 Mass Effect] 360k
[360 Rock Band] 250k
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 390k
[PS2 Rock Band] 200k
[PS3 Assassin's Creed] 300k
[PS3 Call of Duty 4] 280k
[PS3 The Orange Box] 100k
[PS3 Uncharted] 100k
[WII Guitar Hero III] 450k
[WII Play] 750k
[WII Super Mario Galaxy] 1300k
[WII Mario & Sonic Olympics] 450k

 

[Penguin]

[360 Assassin's Creed] 650k
[360 Call of Duty 4] 800k
[360 Halo 3] 475k
[360 Mass Effect] 235k
[360 Rock Band] 200k
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 300k
[PS2 Rock Band] 100k
[PS3 Uncharted] 100k
[PS3 Assassin's Creed] 250k
[PS3 Call of Duty 4] 345k
[PS3 The Orange Box] 75k
[WII Guitar Hero III] 700k
[WII Play] 1000k
[WII Super Mario Galaxy] 1000k
[WII Mario & Sonic Olympics] 345k

 

[sonycowboy]

[360 Assassin's Creed] 690k
[360 Call of Duty 4] 1100k
[360 Halo 3] 730k
[360 Mass Effect] 450k
[360 Rock Band] 255k
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 460k
[PS2 Rock Band] 210k
[PS3 Assassin's Creed] 410k
[PS3 Call of Duty 4] 450k
[PS3 The Orange Box] 150k
[PS3 Uncharted] 170k
[WII Guitar Hero III] 520k
[WII Play] 785k
[WII Super Mario Galaxy] 1250k
[WII Mario & Sonic Olympics] 485k

 

[Minsc]

There's a fair amount of people predicting no games will sell over 1 million in the 5-week month of December's NPD. I guess it's certainly feasible, but I'd just be surprised to see that with record breaking hardware sales predicted.

Last year's Dec. had no 1M sellers in the month, I suppose since everyone rushes to get their games out by Nov or before, which if it happens again this year, perhaps we'll just see an even higher value for the #10 spot than 365K, which in turn is more than a lot of month's #1 spots during the rest of the year.

 

[Flyguy]

[360 Assassin's Creed] 635k
[360 Call of Duty 4] 900k
[360 Halo 3] 700k
[360 Mass Effect] 400k
[360 Rock Band] 450k
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 320k
[PS2 Rock Band] 125k
[PS3 Assassin's Creed] 375k
[PS3 Call of Duty 4] 435k
[PS3 The Orange Box] 137k
[PS3 Uncharted] 150k
[WII Guitar Hero III] 700k
[WII Play] 850k
[WII Super Mario Galaxy] 600k
[WII Mario & Sonic Olympics] 450k

I assume "PS2 Rock Band" won't screw up our predictions?

There's a fair amount of people predicting no games will sell over 1 million in the 5-week month of December's NPD. I guess it's certainly feasible, but I'd just be surprised to see that with record breaking hardware sales predicted.

The pie is much bigger this year, I'm just not sure that any one slice will be that big. Also, December NPD is a 5-week period, but there was an extra shopping week counted in November NPD, so that may take some of the starch out of December sales.

 

[BuzzJive]

[360 Assassin's Creed] 460k
[360 Call of Duty 4] 777k
[360 Halo 3] 420k
[360 Mass Effect] 290k
[360 Rock Band] 222k
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 208k
[PS2 Rock Band] 160k
[PS3 Assassin's Creed] 175k
[PS3 Call of Duty 4] 301k
[PS3 The Orange Box] 120k
[PS3 Uncharted] 88k
[WII Guitar Hero III] 412k
[WII Play] 555k
[WII Super Mario Galaxy] 642k
[WII Mario & Sonic Olympics] 187k


I've been pretty good on hardware all year - but terrible on software. :-/

 

[Flakster99]

[360 Assassin's Creed] 540k
[360 Call of Duty 4] 820k
[360 Halo 3] 620k
[360 Mass Effect] 370k
[360 Rock Band] 295k
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 680k
[PS2 Rock Band] 350k
[PS3 Assassin's Creed] 330k
[PS3 Call of Duty 4] 390k
[PS3 The Orange Box] 190k
[PS3 Uncharted] 300k
[WII Guitar Hero III] 820k
[WII Play] 1120k
[WII Super Mario Galaxy] 1700k
[WII Mario & Sonic Olympics] 1000k

 

[DayShallCome]

The pie is much bigger this year, I'm just not sure that any one slice will be that big. Also, December NPD is a 5-week period, but there was an extra shopping week counted in November NPD, so that may take some of the starch out of December sales.[/QUOTE]

Yeah, that's what I'm banking on.

 

[Mashing]

[360 Assassin's Creed] 550k
[360 Call of Duty 4] 900k
[360 Halo 3] 800k
[360 Mass Effect] 400k
[360 Rock Band] 300k
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 380k
[PS2 Rock Band] 350k
[PS3 Assassin's Creed] 220k
[PS3 Call of Duty 4] 300k
[PS3 The Orange Box] 100k
[PS3 Uncharted] 170k
[WII Guitar Hero III] 800k
[WII Play] 1120k
[WII Super Mario Galaxy] 1200k
[WII Mario & Sonic Olympics] 880k

 

[donny2112]

Predictions closed!

GAF Averages:

1. WII Super Mario Galaxy - 1135.1K
2. 360 Call of Duty 4 - 941.3K
3. WII Play - 836.6K
4. 360 Assassin’s Creed - 698.8K
5. 360 Halo 3 - 537.8K
6. WII Guitar Hero III - 504.7K
7. WII Mario & Sonic Olympics - 487.3K
8. 360 Mass Effect - 391.4K
9. PS3 Call of Duty 4 - 355.7K
10. NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass - 332.1K
11. PS3 Assassin’s Creed - 286.1K
12. 360 Rock Band - 285.9K
13. PS2 Rock Band - 190.3K
14. PS3 Uncharted - 168.5K
15. PS3 The Orange Box - 126.3K


* Super Mario Galaxy and Mario & Sonic's December > November
* Strong second month for Assassin's Creed (1.4m vs. 1.0m), Call of Duty 4 (2.1m vs. 1.3m), Mass Effect (470K vs. 390K), and others
* PS3 The Orange Box sells about half of the 360 version in its debut month
* Zelda: PH crosses 1 million units sold in its fourth month

 

[apujanata]

Predictions closed!

GAF Averages:

1. WII Super Mario Galaxy - 1135.1K
2. 360 Call of Duty 4 - 941.3K
3. WII Play - 836.6K
4. 360 Assassin’s Creed - 698.8K
5. 360 Halo 3 - 537.8K
6. WII Guitar Hero III - 504.7K
7. WII Mario & Sonic Olympics - 487.3K
8. 360 Mass Effect - 391.4K
9. PS3 Call of Duty 4 - 355.7K
10. NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass - 332.1K
11. PS3 Assassin’s Creed - 286.1K
12. 360 Rock Band - 285.9K
13. PS2 Rock Band - 190.3K
14. PS3 Uncharted - 168.5K
15. PS3 The Orange Box - 126.3K


* Super Mario Galaxy and Mario & Sonic's December > November
* Strong second month for Assassin's Creed (1.4m vs. 1.0m), Call of Duty 4 (2.1m vs. 1.3m), Mass Effect (470K vs. 390K), and others
* PS3 The Orange Box sells about half of the 360 version in its debut month
* Zelda: PH crosses 1 million units sold in its fourth month

How many participants this months ?
Any data for participants # since starting this league ?

 

[zsidane]

Looks like we all do agree on the fact that SMG is the only game that can sell 1m in December.

[360 Halo 3] 730k

Really? Do you think that Halo 3 will sell THAT much ?

 

[donny2112]

How many participants this months ?

39

Any data for participants # since starting this league ?

Pre-formalization (these followed the rules for adding the SW predictions to their HW predictions):

Jul-07: 5 (dammitmattt, donny2112, seattle6418, Sho_Nuff82, Stopsign)
Aug-07: 4 (Alkaliine, AlteredBeast, donny2112, Ganondorf>Link)

Post-formalization (normal point system, separate thread, official NPD support):

Sep-07: 52 (all in about 24 hours)
Oct-07: 38
Nov-07: 42
Dec-07: 39

When sonycowboy was running his point system a couple of years ago, I think < 20 (and usually << 20) made all the required predictions each month (HW and SW). However, there were a lot more requirements for the predictions (Top 5 per system with numbers, HW, Top 10 overall, software $). Now the hardware predictions routinely get over 200 participants, and the software, though much lower, is still well above levels from a couple of years ago.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Looks like we all do agree on the fact that SMG is the only game that can sell 1m in December.

Really? Do you think that Halo 3 will sell THAT much ?

In October and November it maintained a very high attach rate to 360 sales. I think that rate will drop in December, but no reason to think it should disappear. Sales generally double in December and that forecast has Halo 3 less than doubling.

 

[RBH]

Hm, I lowballed COD4, SMG, and M&S quite a bit. :/

I wonder how Rock Band and Uncharted did.

 

[gollumsluvslave]

Me:-

Crapshoot time!

[360 Assassin's Creed] 725k
[360 Call of Duty 4] 1125k
[360 Halo 3] 750k
[360 Mass Effect] 450k
[360 Rock Band] 235k
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 320k
[PS2 Rock Band] 150k
[PS3 Assassin's Creed] 225k
[PS3 Call of Duty 4] 375k
[PS3 The Orange Box] 115k
[PS3 Uncharted] 175k
[WII Guitar Hero III] 500k
[WII Play] 850k
[WII Super Mario Galaxy] 1275k
[WII Mario & Sonic Olympics] 475k


I think that Mass Effect will see a good hold over last months numbers due to word of mouth - I hope so anyway!

Halo 3 should see a decent bump from new consoles bought.

Not too bad on the software so far - I majorly overestimated hardware :lol

Actuals in bold:-
[360 Assassin's Creed] 725k (893k)
[360 Call of Duty 4] 1125k (1470k)
[360 Halo 3] 750k (742k)
[360 Mass Effect] 450k (401k)
[360 Rock Band] 235k (463k)
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 320k (???)
[PS2 Rock Band] 150k (???)
[PS3 Assassin's Creed] 225k (approx 400k)
[PS3 Call of Duty 4] 375k (522k)
[PS3 The Orange Box] 115k (56k) :lol
[PS3 Uncharted] 175k (206k)
[WII Guitar Hero III] 500k ('just under' 500k)
[WII Play] 850k (1080k)
[WII Super Mario Galaxy] 1275k (1400k)
[WII Mario & Sonic Olympics] 475k (613k)

No to bad, on the button with the Halo 3 bump, and nice to see a hold for Mass Effect

EDIT - filled in some numbers from the Official thread - PS3 COD4 and Assassin's Creed being derived from MS PR:lol
EDIT - COD4 updated from Sony PR

 

[Randy Lanzarote]

Any timeframe on when some of those gaps will be filled in? Be interesting to see how some of those titles sold in Dec.

 

[AlteredBeast]

[360 Assassin's Creed] 700k
[360 Call of Duty 4] 1100k
[360 Halo 3] 650k
[360 Mass Effect] 200k
[360 Rock Band] 320k
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 327k
[PS2 Rock Band] 110k
[PS3 Assassin's Creed] 245k
[PS3 Call of Duty 4] 308k
[PS3 The Orange Box] 120k
[PS3 Uncharted] 180k
[WII Guitar Hero III] 520k
[WII Play] 780k
[WII Super Mario Galaxy] 1100k
[WII Mario & Sonic Olympics] 620k

Damn, I did pretty well besides Wii Play!