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Official December NPD Prediction Thread (Pachter kills EVERYBODY! Bow down!!!)

D

donny2112

Member
michaelpachter said:
What can I say, even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while . . .:D
Click to expand...

You were the top predictor for all of Q4. I think you may have to upgrade yourself to at least a one-eyed squirrel. ;)
 
S

SPEA

Member
sonycowboy said:
Add in nailing the Industry SW @ 28% increase, calling Call of Duty 4 at 2M units (which everybody thought was wayyyy too high), calling GH3 @ 2.4M (actual 2.6M), Rockband @ 740k (800k actual), Assassin's Creed @ 1M (Actual 1.3M) alongside absolutely killing the HW totals (a score of 130 on Donny's numbers show).

Overall, the singularly best predictive effort we've seen in the 3+ years I've been running the GAF predictions.

Kudos.
Click to expand...
Damn. Nice work Pachter. Very impressive,
 
A

apujanata

Member
donny2112 said:
It's here. :)

Code: 
     December 2007               Last 3 months                2007	
1.   Pachter            130.7    Pachter             368.84   GhaleonEB           1,465.26
2.   L0st Id3ntity      125.1    Lobster             357.18   JoshuaJSlone        1,463.82
3.   rage1973           122.37   nextgeneration      356.83   argon               1,460.62
4.   Ataru83            121.36   rage1973            355.02   Clever Pun          1,441.31
5.   moku               119.62   doicare             349.46   BuzzJive            1,437.45
6.   acabado            119.09   Hammer24            345.97   donny2112           1,422.55
7.   Sean               118.32   Heidir              343.65   duderon             1,419.60
8.   Belgorim           116.7    Sviatoslav          342.99   rage1973            1,416.35
9.   devilscallmedad    115.06   Belgorim            341.47   Heidir              1,413.31
10.  Lobster            115      dammitmattt         340.62   Orgen               1,404.15
11.  harSon             114.15   RBH                 340.3    Kurosaki Ichigo     1,388.35
12.  turtle553          113.02   rostocker           339.32   sonycowboy          1,349.15
13.  Minsc              112.3    argon               339.17   Jokeropia           1,331.49
14.  Sviatoslav         111.36   Brakara             338.7    DayShallCome        1,306.90
15.  CitizenCope        110.95   toxk_02             338.67   TheKurgan           1,279.12
16.  dammitmattt        110.82   blitz64             338.62   starship            1,268.47
17.  GhaleonEB          109.93   Sho_Nuff82          338.46   Frankfurter         1,266.54
18.  jey_16             109.85   Region-FreeWii      338.08   AniHawk             1,246.50
19.  Mr. Pointy         109.62   perfectchaos007     337.89   beermonkey@tehbias  1,246.05
20.  Nutter             109.54   DayShallCome        337.27   apujanata           1,204.59
21.  boontje            109.49   Orgen               336.75   PhoenixDark         1,191.68
22.  sonycowboy         109.46   GhaleonEB           335.54   djtiesto            1,171.90
23.  DeaconKnowledge    109.37   Jokeropia           335.52   Bildi               1,171.23
24.  Kolgar             109.23   RevoDS              335.48   Earthstrike         1,157.39
25.  AlteredBeast       109.01   beermonkey@tehbias  335.44   Hammer24            1,148.61
26.  perfectchaos007    109.01   zsidane             333.23   felipeko            1,146.21
27.  Frankfurter        108.8    boontje             332.52   perfectchaos007     1,134.87
28.  ksamedi            108.72   Clever Pun          331.9    rostocker           1,095.54
29.  RattleHead_        108.64   Frankfurter         330.78   Odysseus            1,074.86
30.  Amarnath           108.6    Thunder Monkey      329.64   devilscallmedad     1,059.24

Congratulations, michaelpachter! :D


In a stunning upset, GhaleonEB takes the 1st annual NeoGAF NPD Hardware Prediction trophy for 2007!
Click to expand...

Congratulation, pachter. You killed us this month (and the last 3 months).

Congratulation to GhaleonEB also, for getting the #1 this year.

I need to study more, since my score in Nov & Dec are F level. However, since I am still in the Top 20 Yearly, I am not doing too bad overall.
 
B

Beer Monkey

Member
Pachter is a beast.

I'm happy to finish in the top 20 for the year. I think there may have even been a month when I missed the deadline.

Here's to more fun in 2008!
 
T

theBishop

Banned
6x0w852.jpg


Gratz
 
K

KINGMOKU

Member
donny2112 said:
It's here. :)

Code: 
     December 2007               Last 3 months                2007	
1.   Pachter            130.7    Pachter             368.84   GhaleonEB           1,465.26
2.   L0st Id3ntity      125.1    Lobster             357.18   JoshuaJSlone        1,463.82
3.   rage1973           122.37   nextgeneration      356.83   argon               1,460.62
4.   Ataru83            121.36   rage1973            355.02   Clever Pun          1,441.31
5.   moku               119.62   doicare             349.46   BuzzJive            1,437.45
6.   acabado            119.09   Hammer24            345.97   donny2112           1,422.55
7.   Sean               118.32   Heidir              343.65   duderon             1,419.60
8.   Belgorim           116.7    Sviatoslav          342.99   rage1973            1,416.35
9.   devilscallmedad    115.06   Belgorim            341.47   Heidir              1,413.31
10.  Lobster            115      dammitmattt         340.62   Orgen               1,404.15
11.  harSon             114.15   RBH                 340.3    Kurosaki Ichigo     1,388.35
12.  turtle553          113.02   rostocker           339.32   sonycowboy          1,349.15
13.  Minsc              112.3    argon               339.17   Jokeropia           1,331.49
14.  Sviatoslav         111.36   Brakara             338.7    DayShallCome        1,306.90
15.  CitizenCope        110.95   toxk_02             338.67   TheKurgan           1,279.12
16.  dammitmattt        110.82   blitz64             338.62   starship            1,268.47
17.  GhaleonEB          109.93   Sho_Nuff82          338.46   Frankfurter         1,266.54
18.  jey_16             109.85   Region-FreeWii      338.08   AniHawk             1,246.50
19.  Mr. Pointy         109.62   perfectchaos007     337.89   beermonkey@tehbias  1,246.05
20.  Nutter             109.54   DayShallCome        337.27   apujanata           1,204.59
21.  boontje            109.49   Orgen               336.75   PhoenixDark         1,191.68
22.  sonycowboy         109.46   GhaleonEB           335.54   djtiesto            1,171.90
23.  DeaconKnowledge    109.37   Jokeropia           335.52   Bildi               1,171.23
24.  Kolgar             109.23   RevoDS              335.48   Earthstrike         1,157.39
25.  AlteredBeast       109.01   beermonkey@tehbias  335.44   Hammer24            1,148.61
26.  perfectchaos007    109.01   zsidane             333.23   felipeko            1,146.21
27.  Frankfurter        108.8    boontje             332.52   perfectchaos007     1,134.87
28.  ksamedi            108.72   Clever Pun          331.9    rostocker           1,095.54
29.  RattleHead_        108.64   Frankfurter         330.78   Odysseus            1,074.86
30.  Amarnath           108.6    Thunder Monkey      329.64   devilscallmedad     1,059.24

Congratulations, michaelpachter! :D


In a stunning upset, GhaleonEB takes the 1st annual NeoGAF NPD Hardware Prediction trophy for 2007!
Click to expand...
Does this mean I came in 5th for December? If so;


BOOYA!

If not, It was just a guess, I really didnt care
 
S

Sviatoslav

Member
1. Pachter - 347,400
2. L0st Id3ntity - 447,600
3. rage1973 - 487,400
4. Ataru83 - 532,400
5. Belgorim - 570,400
6. devilscallmedad - 582,600
7. harSon - 600,600
8. turtle553 - 612,400
9. Minsc - 627,600
10. Sviatoslav - 641,600
Click to expand...
Yay my first top 10.

Code: 
     December 2007               Last 3 months                2007	
1.   Pachter            130.7    Pachter             368.84   GhaleonEB           1,465.26
2.   L0st Id3ntity      125.1    Lobster             357.18   JoshuaJSlone        1,463.82
3.   rage1973           122.37   nextgeneration      356.83   argon               1,460.62
4.   Ataru83            121.36   rage1973            355.02   Clever Pun          1,441.31
5.   moku               119.62   doicare             349.46   BuzzJive            1,437.45
6.   acabado            119.09   Hammer24            345.97   donny2112           1,422.55
7.   Sean               118.32   Heidir              343.65   duderon             1,419.60
8.   Belgorim           116.7    [B]Sviatoslav [/B]         342.99   rage1973            1,416.35
9.   devilscallmedad    115.06   Belgorim            341.47   Heidir              1,413.31
10.  Lobster            115      dammitmattt         340.62   Orgen               1,404.15
11.  harSon             114.15   RBH                 340.3    Kurosaki Ichigo     1,388.35
12.  turtle553          113.02   rostocker           339.32   sonycowboy          1,349.15
13.  Minsc              112.3    argon               339.17   Jokeropia           1,331.49
14.  Sviatoslav         111.36   Brakara             338.7    DayShallCome        1,306.90
15.  CitizenCope        110.95   toxk_02             338.67   TheKurgan           1,279.12
16.  dammitmattt        110.82   blitz64             338.62   starship            1,268.47
17.  GhaleonEB          109.93   Sho_Nuff82          338.46   Frankfurter         1,266.54
18.  jey_16             109.85   Region-FreeWii      338.08   AniHawk             1,246.50
19.  Mr. Pointy         109.62   perfectchaos007     337.89   beermonkey@tehbias  1,246.05
20.  Nutter             109.54   DayShallCome        337.27   apujanata           1,204.59
21.  boontje            109.49   Orgen               336.75   PhoenixDark         1,191.68
22.  sonycowboy         109.46   GhaleonEB           335.54   djtiesto            1,171.90
23.  DeaconKnowledge    109.37   Jokeropia           335.52   Bildi               1,171.23
24.  Kolgar             109.23   RevoDS              335.48   Earthstrike         1,157.39
25.  AlteredBeast       109.01   beermonkey@tehbias  335.44   Hammer24            1,148.61
26.  perfectchaos007    109.01   zsidane             333.23   felipeko            1,146.21
27.  Frankfurter        108.8    boontje             332.52   perfectchaos007     1,134.87
28.  ksamedi            108.72   Clever Pun          331.9    rostocker           1,095.54
29.  RattleHead_        108.64   Frankfurter         330.78   Odysseus            1,074.86
30.  Amarnath           108.6    Thunder Monkey      329.64   devilscallmedad     1,059.24
Click to expand...

Even better here. New season starts now though.
 
A

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
#20! Booya! Not bad for my first time being counted in one of these :) Destroyed the GAF Aggregate and theSimExchange, even though I was still 700k off :p
 
C

cartman414

Member
Wow. They may be getting outpaced on the hardware front by Nintendo and the Wii, but considering their software performance, I'm sure Microsoft isn't too worried.
 
T

Thunder Monkey

Banned
moku said:
Does this mean I came in 5th for December? If so;


BOOYA!

If not, It was just a guess, I really didnt care
Click to expand...
Is that first column for software?

On the list up the page you ranked 31. One before me.

If that's software then congrats on the showing moku. I'm... scared of the prospect of predicting software.
 
A

Arthas

Banned
cartman414 said:
Wow. They may be getting outpaced on the hardware front by Nintendo and the Wii, but considering their software performance, I'm sure Microsoft isn't too worried.
Click to expand...

They will be worried for the long term, considering they are constantly losing market share to nintendo's platforms.
 
W

Wii-za

Member
Cheesemeister said:
121. Wii-za - 1,282,400
Click to expand...

oh snap...

IT WAS ALL SONY FAULT!1!1!! I changed my prediction after seeing that stupid PR...this is the last time I will change my numbers! =(

but I'm higher than last month...

November Prediction Thread said:
147. Wii-za - 714,000
Click to expand...

:D
 
T

The Innocent X

Banned
Mr Pachter Sir, you should consider turning professional! Of course, that means you would have to tone down some of your more outlandish pronouncements, but I think the money would be worth it.
 
I

itsgreen

Member
The Innocent X said:
Mr Pachter Sir, you should consider turning professional! Of course, that means you would have to tone down some of your more outlandish pronouncements, but I think the money would be worth it.
Click to expand...

Maybe he should, maybe I shouldn't.

But I do think the method of counting should be changed.

If im correct if you predict 2000k for Wii and 10k for ps3, and NPD says 1300k for Wii and 710k for PS3 you have a perfect score here, but the prediction was way wrong.

It should be done in % under/over per console, and then combined.

you were off 50% on Wii and 99% on ps3: total 149% off
 
T

The Innocent X

Banned
itsgreen said:
Maybe he should, maybe I shouldn't.

But I do think the method of counting should be changed.

If im correct if you predict 2000k for Wii and 10k for ps3, and NPD says 1300k for Wii and 710k for PS3 you have a perfect score here, but the prediction was way wrong.

It should be done in % under/over per console, and then combined.

you were off 50% on Wii and 99% on ps3: total 149% off
Click to expand...

Eh, the method you describe is how it is done, isn't it? (except raw units are used instead of percentages)
 
I

itsgreen

Member
The Innocent X said:
Eh, the method you describe is how it is done, isn't it? (except raw units are used instead of percentages)
Click to expand...

Oh ok, thought it was: lets put all numbers together and compare it to all NPD together.

But being -50k on one console and +50k on the next console gets you 100k off both consoles or 0?
 
H

Hammer24

Banned
Damn it, December really did me in...

However, congrats to the Pachtman *bows*, and to GhaleonEB *bows* for taking the crown!
 
P

Phoenix 2.0

Member
I suck at this. I'm gonna start copying Pachter's numbers and add 1K there, remove 1K there...

Nah, just kidding. I will improve! 2008 overall winner: me!
 
C

Cheesemeister

Member
itsgreen said:
But I do think the method of counting should be changed.

If im correct if you predict 2000k for Wii and 10k for ps3, and NPD says 1300k for Wii and 710k for PS3 you have a perfect score here, but the prediction was way wrong.

It should be done in % under/over per console, and then combined.

you were off 50% on Wii and 99% on ps3: total 149% off
Click to expand...

What? No. That'd result in 1400k. The numbers I give are the sum of all absolute differences between predictions and actuals.

itsgreen said:
Oh ok, thought it was: lets put all numbers together and compare it to all NPD together.

But being -50k on one console and +50k on the next console gets you 100k off both consoles or 0?
Click to expand...

That'd be 100k.
 
B

BuzzJive

Member
I did terrible for the past few months. I'll gladly accept my number 5 rank for the year. I do plan to find some time to join the simExchange GAF league for 2008...
 
J

Jokeropia

Member
Draft said:
I remember when people used to talk shit on Pachter's picks :lol
Click to expand...
To be fair, his monthly predictions used to be much worse before he first visited GAF and I guess started to take them a bit more seriously. Very impressive performance this month in either case.

Anyway, #13 for the year is acceptable I guess considering I missed out on January.
 
O

Odysseus

Banned
there needs to be an official 2008 prediction thread. predict the entire year before the first npd is out. no points or anything, just for giggles.
 
J

JoshuaJSlone

Member
Odysseus said:
there needs to be an official 2008 prediction thread. predict the entire year before the first npd is out. no points or anything, just for giggles.
Click to expand...
We had one for 2007, but I don't think it's been bumped for results yet. I know I did awful awful awful there.
 
O

Odysseus

Banned
JoshuaJSlone said:
We had one for 2007, but I don't think it's been bumped for results yet. I know I did awful awful awful there.
Click to expand...

went searching, found one

i think i flubbed it... badly. thinking i put the "less thans" in descending order, then very badly.

Odysseus said:
ds - 100 million
ps2 - less than
360 - less than
ps3 - less than
wii - less than
psp - less than
gba - less than
gcn - less than
xbox - 5
Click to expand...
 
E

Earthstrike

Member
Cheese, is there any way we could find out about who entered in a prediction for the past 12 months. I wanna see if my 25th place in 2007 actually means anything.
 
C

CrunchyB

Member
So, is it fair to say that Pachter had some inside information? Because he totally destroyed you guys, which is unlike his (mediocre) track record.
 
A

apujanata

Member
Earthstrike said:
Cheese, is there any way we could find out about who entered in a prediction for the past 12 months. I wanna see if my 25th place in 2007 actually means anything.
Click to expand...

While waiting for data from Cheesemeister, here is what I have when calculating the delta of Dec 2007 against May 2007 :

Code: 
No.	Name	Delta
1	JoshuaJSlone	875.99
2	GhaleonEB	863.94
3	argon	852.25
4	Clever Pun	851.41
5	Jokeropia	851.34
6	Heidir	846.68
7	duderon	843.60
8	rage1973	839.43
9	Orgen	834.29
10	DayShallCome	831.34
11	apujanata	825.10
12	Kurosaki Ichigo	823.06
13	donny2112	822.13
14	BuzzJive	821.32
15	TheKurgan	820.28
16	AniHawk	816.95
17	Frankfurter	813.25
18	Bildi	811.23
19	felipeko	795.60
20	beermonkey@tehbias	721.42
21	Odysseus	721.13
22	starship	695.07
23	PhoenixDark	694.32
24	Earthstrike	642.18
25	sonycowboy	507.18

Some of the unrated, since there is no # for Dec 07 :
Code: 
Parl
Haunted One
DSWii60
JJConrad
djtiesto

The conclusion : If you always have prediction since May 2007, your delta (difference between Dec 07 point and May 07 point) is #24 of 25 member who have the delta calculated).
 
C

Cheesemeister

Member
Earthstrike said:
Cheese, is there any way we could find out about who entered in a prediction for the past 12 months. I wanna see if my 25th place in 2007 actually means anything.
Click to expand...

I don't have detailed stats handy, as I just started processing the predictions halfway through the year. I want to add some cool new features for this year, though.
 
A

apujanata

Member
CrunchyB said:
So, is it fair to say that Pachter had some inside information? Because he totally destroyed you guys, which is unlike his (mediocre) track record.
Click to expand...

Person can improve, right ? Is it so incomprehensible (to you) that Michael Pachter can improve his prediction skill ? Everyone else admit that Michael bested us, fairly and squarely.

If he can do that 12 times out of 12, then it is time to became suspicious :D.
 
T

Thunder Monkey

Banned
CrunchyB said:
So, is it fair to say that Pachter had some inside information? Because he totally destroyed you guys, which is unlike his (mediocre) track record.
Click to expand...
Don't be a bitch.

He earned his praise like anyone else would have.

He does have access to more information then most of us to begin with. For one he has access to full NPD reports. We get the censored versions. This is his job, and he predicted unbelievably well for December.

We are the armchair analysts, he's the paid professional.
 
C

CrunchyB

Member
apujanata said:
Person can improve, right ? Is it so incomprehensible (to you) that Michael Pachter can improve his prediction skill ? Everyone else admit that Michael bested us, fairly and squarely.

If he can do that 12 times out of 12, then it is time to became suspicious :D.
Click to expand...

It's one thing to improve, but he was totally mediocre in this competition (of which he probably was unaware of) until December, at which point he totally outperforms everyone by a solid margin.

I don't follow Sales-age that closely, but this just sounds fishy, that's all.

edit: and I don't hate Pachter, the GAF Sales-Age crew or anyone else, I'm just taking note that this is unlike the previous months, that's all
 
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