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[CoffeeGames]

Btw, CoffeeGames, I do agree about NoA having issues. However, I think you don't happen to realize that there is a significant technical portion of NoA that does work. At the minimum, there is the Treehouse translation teams, and I've heard of non-game related software projects that folks at NoA were doing, like working on the 3DS SDK years back. Also there's a really good gamasutra article about Nintendo attempting to market the GameCube and how stupid they honestly seemed at the time. They didn't even think of advertising Resident Evil 4 along with their system b/c it was a third party game, even though it was probably one of the best non-Nintendo exclusives for the GameCube. Instead they did weird things like taking the GameCube to clubs.... Reggie was the VP of marketing at the time, thus I bring it up =).

I do realzie that NoA does technical work, but if with the Wii U NoA's crowning jewel they will point to is Nintendo TVii, they have serious issues. I own a Wii U, my neighbors do...friends do. I don't know any of them that use Nintendo TVii. None. Zero.

What was the point of wasting nearly 1/3rd of the U.S. Wii U price/launch date reveal, talking about that, when it isn't even that functional? Especially at launch, since Netflix wasn't even included in it?

I read that interview about Mr. Fils-Aime thinking advertising/bundling Resident Evil 4 was crazy (a look of surprise, was it, at the idea?). The problem I have seen from Mr. Fils-Aime throughout the entire last year+, is that he is completely still clueless in his own region. When he went on a late night talk show (Jimmy Fallon maybe?) earlier this year, what games did he try to pitch? ONLY Nintendo games? Game & Wario I think...? Couldn't mention Off-TV Play with a third party game?

When there are third party games that make better use of the Wii U's GamePad features than Nintendo published titles, Nintendo should be actively trying to use those games to sell the Wii U. Whether with online trailers they create themselves, or TV ads they pay for.

I actually pitched the idea earlier last year that NOA should have paid for all Black Ops II DLC to be free on the Wii U, then advertise that in February/March before it released. Black Ops II makes great use of the GamePad in online multiplayer, and even uses the Wii Remote/Nunchuk that Nintendo seems to like including in ads they do...

They could have used an existing third party game that was extremely popular, paid a few million (IF THAT) to get the DLC on the Wii U (for all owners for free), and used that to try and help sell more consoles. Instead, they released the ZombiU bundle and did ABSOLUTELY NOTHING with it. Why not advertise both? They didn't even do one...

I have repeatedly linked (on another site) to how Microsoft and Sony use third party games to help sell their own systems, and I have not seen that out of NoA with the Wii U. Instead of advertising all year, they wait until the most expensive season to start advertising it?

Does that make any sense? Neglect an entire year when it is cheaper to run ads in the "off season", only to wait until the holiday season...
When it is more expensive to run ads AND you are competing against every single new toy/electronics device under the sun?

 

[Guevara]

Mario 3D Land -> Mario 3D World
Mario Kart 7 -> Mario Kart 8
DKC Returns 3D -> DKC Tropical Freeze
NSMB2 -> NSMBU
Smash 4 -> Smash 4

It's a problem.

Yeah when I first heard Nintendo was making smash for both platforms...

I guess at the time the 3DS needed some help, but it seems like a really bad idea unless they are substantially different. Like NSMB/Galaxy different.

 

[Yanikun]

The problem is you assume that people will continue to desire the same thing to entertain them.

Try releasing a plastic peripheral music game now.

I was only giving examples of casual experiences not possible on a mobile device. It can be anything, so long as Nintendo understands full-price retail Brain Age and Nintendogs are silly propositions.

Casual gamers will always exist. They're never gone. They may like different things today than yesterday, but they will always like something. Only part of what they like can be found on mobile platforms. My wife bought her own 3DS XL because she played Animal Crossing on mine and got hooked, then I suggested she buys Tomodachi Collection and she's also addicted to that. Those games are experiences that would be difficult to replicate correctly on a tablet, but Wii U games can be stuff that would be not just difficult but impossible to replicate on a tablet, due to the nature of the system. They need to tap into that, and some of Iwata's statements a few months back gave me hope that he understands that, and the Wii Party/Fit/Sports performance will probably cement that realization.

 

[shinra-bansho]

When people say the casual audience is "gone" they don't mean those people have melted into puddles of nothing, but that something else is now vying for their entertainment time and dollars, and winning. iOS and Android are doing and have done that. And trying to draw them back with the same things you've done before probably isn't going to work.

I get bored with Angry Birds, I move on to Draw Something. I get bored with Draw Something, I move on to Candy Crush. And when I get bored with Candy Crush eventually, I probably move on to something completely different. Maybe it's on my phone, maybe it's not.

People who were after a party game system have a Wii, and they've been able to get a Kinect for the last 3 years. Why should they get a Wii U?

I think Microsoft are going to find that with Kinect 2 as well.

And that question: Why should they get a Wii U? Is really the key problem with Nintendo's marketing of this system (not advertising, for a proper distinction see Y2Kev's post history).

 

[Metal Gear?!]

Do people really think that the Wii U will be Nintendo's last console?

This is the last generation of consoles as we know them.

 

[Log4Girlz]

This is the last generation of consoles as we know them.

I'm not so sure BUT I don't blame you at all for holding that opinion. You might be right.

 

[speculawyer]

I don't know how typical a gamer I am, but my feelings:

I own a PS3 and 360 and will probably buy a PS4 next year. I am interested in some of the Wii U games (3D World, Mario Kart etc) but couldn't care less about the gamepad. The price of entry is too high for me, particularly when my money can go towards a system that's guaranteed to get lots of support in the future. However, if they dropped the gamepad and got the system under (e.g.) $200 I would probably buy one to complement my other console.

IMO, the people who are arguing that they should drop the gamepad are on the money.

Yeah, I want to play super Mario 3D world but I'm not going to pay $400 to play one game. If they ditch the gamepad and make the console $200, I'd buy it.

But that probably wouldn't help them much since I probably would not buy anything but that game and maybe a few other big Nintendo IPs. I probably wouldn't buy any 3rd party software for that platform . . . because there won't be any. OK, there will be some but I'd be getting versions for the PS4 or PC or maybe xbone.

 

[FourMyle]

Just updated for you guys =) compare with DC and GC

[/URL][/IMG]

Edit: Oh error, that was suppose to mention the WiiU price drop

Anyone who sees this chart and still thinks the Wii U is "doing okay" is completely delusional (and I've seen plenty of people say this in other threads). The Wii U is one of the biggest failures in the gaming industry. I would bet a cup of coffee that this system is not going to be alive past Christmas 2015.

 

[Parmenides]

The good ol' Nintendo goes 3rd party discussion.

lol


40 years of doom - never change

It depends on the 3DS performance in NA/EU.

Their console business is in dire straits, and 3DS has already started to decline in Japan.

3DS HW Shipments (JAPAN)

Hardware       Ap-Jn    Jl-Sp    Oc-Dc    Ja-Mr      FY        FCT

  

FY 2012/13     0.92     1.17      2.95    0.65       5.69    

FY 2013/14     0.64     1.16       -       -         1.80      5.00 (Nintendo FCT)

3DS HW Shipments (AMERICAS + OTHER)

Hardware       Ap-Jn    Jl-Sp    Oc-Dc    Ja-Mr      FY        FCT

  

FY 2012/13     0.95     2.02      4.70    0.60       8.27    

FY 2013/14     0.76     1.34       -       -         2.10      13.00 (Nintendo FCT)

Wii U is such a bomba console I was expecting it to be GC 2.0 but not THAT bad

Nintendo lost the plot a long, long time ago.

At the time of Iwata's speech, I warned people that the Wii was collapsing in Japan. Usually, it takes 12-18 months before the problem spreads to the West.

Then everything goes downhill.

Wii Hardware (Unit: Million)

                     FCT         Sales

FY 2009/10           26.0        20.53

FY 2010/11           18.0        15.08

FY 2011/12           13.0        9.84

FY 2012/13           5.0         3.98



Wii  U Hardware (Unit: Million)

                     FCT        Sales

FY 2012/13           5.50       3.45

FY 2013/14           9.0        0.46 (First Half)

Nintendo's problem is that the casual market is a time bomb.

Consumers are fickle, products and concepts have a short life span, it's difficult to set up barriers to entry and, rather sooner than later the competition becomes fierce, it's very hard to plan the next move, the financial results are very volatile... It's a high-risk, low-margin and low-volume business in the long run. You have to constantly reinvent your business in order to survive. Easier said than done.

Nintendo Operating Income (billion yen)

                     FCT         Operating Income (Loss)

FY 2009/10           490               356

FY 2010/11           320               171
 
FY 2011/12           175              (37)

FY 2012/13           35               (36)

FY 2013/14           100              (23) -> First Half

Once they lost the casual market, the only thing left was the core market. And now they have a system stuck between two generations. Like the Dreamcast.

Unfortunately, Nintendo does not have games in the pipeline to rescue the Wii U in NA/JP ( I had my doubts in March because Nintendo is very talented. Now it's clear. BTW Mario is the next bomba in MC/FAM)

Nintendo lags at least seven years behind the competition in key areas. The Wii era has left the Kyoto company in bad condition to compete with Sony and Microsoft. And the casual market is gone.

Mr. Iwata is a great man, but I think Nintendo needs a major overhaul.

 

[Forkball]

Pokemon is still making bank, and XY totally deserves it. At this point, Nintendo should just rename the Wii U to 3DS 2.

 

[Aquamarine]

Aquamarine here with more numbers to add to the TOP 10!!!!!!

ARE YOU READY!?!??!

1. Grand Theft Auto V (360, PS3) - 1.1 million
2. Pokémon X (3DS) - >1.7 million combined with Pokemon Y
3. Pokémon Y (3DS) - See Pokemon X
4. Battlefield 4 (360, PS3, PC) - 825,000-850,000
5. Batman: Arkham Origins (360, PS3, Wii U, PC) - <650,000 (PS3 + 360 = 98.2%, Wii U = 1.8%)
6. Assassin&#8217;s Creed IV, Black Flag (360, PS3, Wii U) - <630,000 (Wii U = 1%)
7. NBA 2K14 (360, PS3, PC)
8. Skylanders: Swap Force (Wii, 360, PS3, Wii U, 3DS) - <320,000
9. Lego Marvel Super Heroes (360, PS3, Wii U, 3DS, PC)
10. WWE 2K14 (360, PS3)
XX. Madden NFL 25 (360, PS3) - >150,000
XX. Just Dance 2014 (360, PS3, Wii U, Wii) - <150,000
XX: Beyond: Two Souls (PS3) - 120,000-125,000
XX: Sonic: Lost World (Wii U, 3DS) - <30,000
XX. Wii Party U (Wii U) - <20,000

Enjoy.

 

[LOCK]

Thanks Aqua.

I wonder how the top 10 will look next month. CoD will be #1, but how far will Pokemon fall and will a Mario title make the top 10?

 

[udivision]

Pokemon is still making bank, and XY totally deserves it. At this point, Nintendo should just rename the Wii U to 3DS 2.

It doesn't matter if it's a Battle Revolution type game or a an RPG like Colosseum, Nintendo needs to leverage the Pokemon IP on the Wii U.

 

[Lumyst]

( I had my doubts in March because Nintendo is very talented. Now it's clear. BTW Mario is the next bomba in MC/FAM)

At this point I'm not interested in WiiU's sales, but most interested in what games the userbase is going to respond to, if at all, because it would be the worst if not even a new Mario game could get the WiiU's userbase's attention. I said back in Summer that Wii Party U and SM3DW would be my personal "barometers" for the WiiU (Casual audience? Fans of traditional Nintendo games?) I know that the Wii___ line now has no selling power, but it's ironic that the Wii___ games fail on a console named Wii U. So the next thing I'm looking at is SM3DW's sales. If that game underperforms (I'd even say anything less than NSMBU's sales would be an underperformance) then what would that say about the userbase then, that's what I will have to think about.

 

[CadetMahoney]

you know a console's dead when its nearly getting doubled by the fucking Dreamcast in monthly sales

I feel so bad for bayonetta 2.

 

[vctor182]

I don't think there's any way Smash 3DS comes out on or near the Wii U date.

I mean, it has to come out months later so the Wii U can get some sales. That seems like the smartest option to me.

Smash 3DS will sell like crazy, regardless of when Smash U comes out.

Hmmm I'm not too sure... Wii U is seen as too expensive based on hardware sales, maybe this will change in the future with 3D world, MK8 but at this time it seems they need to keep 3DS/2DS sales high to counter the sink money their home console has become.

 

[Mory Dunz]

It doesn't matter if it's a Battle Revolution type game or a an RPG like Colosseum, Nintendo needs to leverage the Pokemon IP on the Wii U.

Pokken whatever better release next year.
And if that's not a stadium game, the stadium game should release to conincide with Pokemon Z.

2 Console Pokemon games in a short period if that's the case?
Yes.

 

[Lumyst]

5. Batman: Arkham Origins (360, PS3, Wii U, PC) - <650,000 (PS3 + 360 = 98.2%, Wii U = 1.8%)
6. Assassin&#8217;s Creed IV, Black Flag (360, PS3, Wii U) - <630,000 (Wii U = 1%)

So about 7000 copies sold on WiiU then? I remember a thread speculating that after Batman Arkham City and Assassin's Creed III being on the WiiU, the sequels should theoretically do better saleswise, on the WiiU. Was that not the case? Because if the userbase was more active around launch, then their activity died out, that would mean...people who bought WiiU's were dissatisfied and packed them up already? It's just astounding to me to have seen even Nintendo titles underperform, it's like nobody can profit off of the userbase, not even Nintendo themselves. Heck, porting a game to the WiiU would even cost more due to the compulsion to create gamepad features. In any case, I want to see how 3DW does, because that should reveal how many people are left interested in using their WiiU's.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Thanks, Aqua.

XX. Just Dance 2014 (360, PS3, Wii U, Wii) - <150,000

This franchise used to sell three times that in it's launch month, Ubisoft should probably be concerned about its longevity.

 

[Triton55]

Yeah when I first heard Nintendo was making smash for both platforms...

I guess at the time the 3DS needed some help, but it seems like a really bad idea unless they are substantially different. Like NSMB/Galaxy different.

I really think that the 3DS version should be placed on the backburner until after the Wii U version is finished.

 

[vctor182]

Thanks, Aqua.This franchise used to sell three times that in it's launch month, Ubisoft should probably be concerned about its longevity.

It's Guitar Hero all over again.

I really think that the 3DS version should be placed on the backburner until after the Wii U version is finished.

Why would they do that? 3DS is their life boat ATM

 

[Ocaso]

Aquamarine here with more numbers to add to the TOP 10!!!!!!

ARE YOU READY!?!??!

1. Grand Theft Auto V (360, PS3) - 1.1 million
2. Pokémon X (3DS) - >1.7 million combined with Pokemon Y
3. Pokémon Y (3DS) - See Pokemon X
4. Battlefield 4 (360, PS3, PC) - <850,000
5. Batman: Arkham Origins (360, PS3, Wii U, PC) - <650,000 (PS3 + 360 = 98.2%, Wii U = 1.8%)
6. Assassin’s Creed IV, Black Flag (360, PS3, Wii U) - <630,000 (Wii U = 1%)
7. NBA 2K14 (360, PS3, PC)
8. Skylanders: Swap Force (Wii, 360, PS3, Wii U, 3DS) - <320,000
9. Lego Marvel Super Heroes (360, PS3, Wii U, 3DS, PC)
10. WWE 2K14 (360, PS3)
XX. Madden NFL 25 (360, PS3) - >150,000
XX. Just Dance 2014 (360, PS3, Wii U, Wii) - <150,000
XX: Beyond: Two Souls (PS3) - 120,000-125,000
XX: Sonic: Lost World (Wii U, 3DS) - <30,000
XX. Wii Party U (Wii U) - <20,000

Enjoy.

Ouch at those third party sales on WiiU. At this point it's hard to imagine any third party supporting the platform next year.

 

[Sandfox]

I really think that the 3DS version should be placed on the backburner until after the Wii U version is finished.

I'm kinda expecting them to come out at different times.

 

[speculawyer]

you know a console's dead when its nearly getting doubled by the fucking Dreamcast in monthly sales

Yeah, we all know what happened to that console.

And EA, Activision, and Take-Two have pretty much all abandoned the WiiU. It is a pretty desperate situation. They are going to get nothing but kiddie titles (Lego, Skylanders, etc.) from the 3rd parties at this point. Then again, that was largely true for the Wii as well.

 

[Shiggy]

Yeah, we all know what happened to that console.

And EA, Activision, and Take-Two have pretty much all abandoned the WiiU. It is a pretty desperate situation. They are going to get nothing but kiddie titles (Lego, Skylanders, etc.) from the 3rd parties at this point. Then again, that was largely true for the Wii as well.

It's kind of amusing that EA and Take-Two made clever decisions for once by not supporting Wii U at all.

 

[allan-bh]

Aquamarine here with more numbers to add to the TOP

Nice work Aqua. I hope you can continue to do every month.

 

[tauroxd]

Aquamarine here with more numbers to add to the TOP 10!!!!!!

ARE YOU READY!?!??!

1. Grand Theft Auto V (360, PS3) - 1.1 million
2. Pokémon X (3DS) - >1.7 million combined with Pokemon Y
3. Pokémon Y (3DS) - See Pokemon X
4. Battlefield 4 (360, PS3, PC) - 825,000-850,000
5. Batman: Arkham Origins (360, PS3, Wii U, PC) - <650,000 (PS3 + 360 = 98.2%, Wii U = 1.8%)
6. Assassin’s Creed IV, Black Flag (360, PS3, Wii U) - <630,000 (Wii U = 1%)
7. NBA 2K14 (360, PS3, PC)
8. Skylanders: Swap Force (Wii, 360, PS3, Wii U, 3DS) - <320,000
9. Lego Marvel Super Heroes (360, PS3, Wii U, 3DS, PC)
10. WWE 2K14 (360, PS3)
XX. Madden NFL 25 (360, PS3) - >150,000
XX. Just Dance 2014 (360, PS3, Wii U, Wii) - <150,000
XX: Beyond: Two Souls (PS3) - 120,000-125,000
XX: Sonic: Lost World (Wii U, 3DS) - <30,000
XX. Wii Party U (Wii U) - <20,000

Enjoy.

Thanks, you are (one of) my favorite person(s) in NeoGAF.

 

[Celine]

Thank you Aquamarine.

 

[kswiston]

So about 7000 copies sold on WiiU then? I remember a thread speculating that after Batman Arkham City and Assassin's Creed III being on the WiiU, the sequels should theoretically do better saleswise, on the WiiU. Was that not the case? Because if the userbase was more active around launch, then their activity died out, that would mean...people who bought WiiU's were dissatisfied and packed them up already? It's just astounding to me to have seen even Nintendo titles underperform, it's like nobody can profit off of the userbase, not even Nintendo themselves. Heck, porting a game to the WiiU would even cost more due to the compulsion to create gamepad features. In any case, I want to see how 3DW does, because that should reveal how many people are left interested in using their WiiU's.

Wii U's install base is so low that I wouldn't be surprised if a large chunk of the console's owners are people with multiple systems, including a PC/PS3/360 that they buy those games on instead.

 

[Yanikun]

When people say the casual audience is "gone" they don't mean those people have melted into puddles of nothing, but that something else is now vying for their entertainment time and dollars, and winning. iOS and Android are doing and have done that. And trying to draw them back with the same things you've done before probably isn't going to work.

I get bored with Angry Birds, I move on to Draw Something. I get bored with Draw Something, I move on to Candy Crush. And when I get bored with Candy Crush eventually, I probably move on to something completely different. Maybe it's on my phone, maybe it's not.

People who were after a party game system have a Wii, and they've been able to get a Kinect for the last 3 years. Why should they get a Wii U?

I think Microsoft are going to find that with Kinect 2 as well.

And that question: Why should they get a Wii U? Is really the key problem with Nintendo's marketing of this system (not advertising, for a proper distinction see Y2Kev's post history).

I know. Except I don't agree that Wii-type games don't have some selling power left in them. They don't sell now because they don't sell systems. If something new that can't be offered on a mobile device sold systems, I think Wii-type games would be solid sellers. Right now because people don't see why they should buy a Wii U, they can play Wii-type games very well on their Wii. If something compelled them to upgrade, they would unplug the Wii, replace it with the Wii U and buy other Wii-type games because they won't want to play Wii Party or Karaoke on their old system anymore, but on their new one. I do believe party games, karaoke, dance and Taiko games are still potentially a lot of fun for people, go to Round One and see it for yourself. They just don't do it on the Wii U - and won't do it on Xbox One but that's another story.

So pretty much:
1. Make the Wii U
2. ?
3. Profit.

But what people are suggesting is:
1. Make the Wii U
2. Inevitable failure.

They can still replace that question mark with something. It won't be with Wii Fit U (now that I think was a total fad) or Wii Party U or Wii Sports Club, and it won't be with Mario or Donkey Kong. But they can get back a chunk of the casual audience with something on the Wii U, they just haven't come up with what. They should learn from what exactly makes their casual games that still sell, successful. The answer isn't "well let's just do Animal Crossing U," but another deep, clever experience only possible on a home console like the Wii U.

 

[RukusProvider]

By Jan no one will argue Wii u chances in NA.

Some of the last few hope holders need the beat down in nov and dec to truly accept the death of this console.

Nintendo needs to develop the next console, OS and supporting infrastructure in the US to have a chance.

 

[ambientmystic]

By Jan no one will argue Wii u chances in NA.

Some of the last few hope holders need the beat down in nov and dec to truly accept the death of this console.

Nintendo needs to develop the next console, OS and supporting infrastructure in the US to have a chance.

Ehh.. hold on to that statement until Mario Kart, Smash and Tropical Freeze have come out at the very least lol.

Peeps will be holding out till then, they haven't spent all their ammo for the machine yet.

 

[Sanic]

Perhaps after going nearly a decade without a new console launch, maybe we'll get an extra one soonish to make up for it.

edit: They need to make drastic changes if this thing bombs through Christmas. "wait for smash!" is an Iwata-ism, and we can't have any more of those.

 

[kswiston]

Ehh.. hold on to that statement until Mario Kart, Smash and Tropical Freeze have come out at the very least lol.

Peeps will be holding out till then, they haven't spent all their ammo for the machine yet.

Tropical Freeze is not going to do anything for the Wii U. Donkey Kong Country Returns did well because it was selling to the same gigantic audience that had gobbled up New Super Mario Bros Wii the year before. 10% of that audience bothered to make the jump to the Wii U based on sales of NSMB U. I doubt Donkey Kong is the type of game that will change the minds of the other 90%.

 

[Majmun]

Ehh.. hold on to that statement until Mario Kart, Smash and Tropical Freeze have come out at the very least lol.

Peeps will be holding out till then, they haven't spent all their ammo for the machine yet.

I think Wii U is past the "wait for" game. I really don't see any of the new games, including Mario Kart 8 and the new Wii Sports, turn the console into a success. Maybe a peak in sales, but nothing more.

It's Gamecube all over again. Mario Kart didn't save that console. Wii Party was also a hit on the Wii, but it's bombing hard on the Wii U. So I don't expect Wii U Sport or Fit do any wonders either.

The console is done.

 

[Honey Bunny]

I would position that the Wii name itself is poison at this point and they would be better served going with Nintendo Ultra or something, or even Nintendo Home DS before Wii 2.

Gamepads gotta go though, since even Nintendo havent been able to justify it with a core gimmick. But then on the flipside, I don't think Nintendo have the infrastructure to patch it out cleanly from past core software theyd want to sell to the new install base and the massive swerve the Zelda team would have to take with whatever theyre working on.

HomeDS, I like it. Attach the Wii U pad to the console with some door hinges and you're good to go.

 

[allan-bh]

Aquamarine, can you confirm that 1.7m for Pokemon is NPD data (so excluding digital sales) ?

 

[kswiston]

Aquamarine, can you confirm that 1.7m for Pokemon is NPD data (so excluding digital sales) ?

That's what I would like to know as well. I stayed up to the midnight eShop release, and couldn't even make the purchase due to Nintendo's servers being hammered. I never had that issue during the eShop launches of NSMB2 and Fire Emblem, so I imagine digital sales were pretty good.

 

[ViewtifulJC]

Just updated for you guys =) compare with DC and GC

[/URL][/IMG]

Edit: Oh error, that was suppose to mention the WiiU price drop

I don't know what's worse, being doubled by the DC or being tripled by the GC

 

[Manmademan]

I don't know what's worse, being doubled by the DC or being tripled by the GC

Lol. suddenly my prediction of 100-150K doesn't seem all that crazy now does it?

 

[kswiston]

I don't know what's worse, being doubled by the DC or being tripled by the GC

Weren't worldwide Dreamcast sales lower than North American Gamecube sales? I'd go with the system that was discontinued in 2 years.

 

[SporeCrawler]

I think Wii U is past the "wait for" game. I really don't see any of the new games, including Mario Kart 8 and the new Wii Sports, turn the console into a success. Maybe a peak in sales, but nothing more.

It's Gamecube all over again. Mario Kart didn't save that console. Wii Party was also a hit on the Wii, but it's bombing hard on the Wii U. So I don't expect Wii U Sport or Fit do any wonders either.

The console is done.

define success. is just number one a success or can you be a success not being the market leader? i think last gen has changed a lot of that perceptions

1. There was a pattern in the video game industry that if you didnt do well in the first few month or the first year in the lifecycle that console would be bust.

- PS3 sold badly (albeit better than WiiU now) in the first few month and people were writing it off. It also never had a sudden spike. it just gradually became better and better fixing problems one at a time. In 2009 suddenly Sony gained a lot of credit by existing users and the library backlog was good enough that people that bought other consoles would give it another look. Nowadays PS3 would be considered as a success.
- 3DS is more drastic. It fell off hard after launch because of its pitiful lineup (and yes even those numbers are better than what WiiU is doing at the moment). However Nintendo jumped started the whole thing with a slew of titles and a huge pricedrop. it kinda bongled again in 2012 but in 2013 it finally gets a steady stream of good software and is definately not a failure anymore

2. If you are not No.1 you are probably not sustainable

This pattern also kinda vanished. If you look at the DC, Xbox, GC, Ps2 days its clear that DC and Xbox were both big minuses for the respective companies moneywise, GC was okay but not spectacular and only PS2 was really raking in money.

With Wii, 360 and PS3 Sony and MS both lost a lot of money due to RRoD and the initial failed launch by Sony but now at the end of the gen they all sold a respectable amount of software and hardware. Similar things can be said about PSP. At the end of the day it sold 70 million pieces of hardware (not that much software though due piracy)

Also there is a clear distinction between what Sony and MS platforms offer (15-35 male demographic) and what Nintendo platforms (kids, casuals) offer now.

Now nintendo definately needs to appeal the platform more to their core audience and the expended audience. I think especially with the latter one they need to lower price much more. Wii was succesful because it was fairly cheap with a game packed in. nintendo really should consider slashing prices further. Mario and Luigi Bundle and mario Kart 8 bundle for 200 dollars should be whats on the shelves.

Tropical Freeze is not going to do anything for the Wii U. Donkey Kong Country Returns did well because it was selling to the same gigantic audience that had gobbled up New Super Mario Bros Wii the year before. 10% of that audience bothered to make the jump to the Wii U based on sales of NSMB U. I doubt Donkey Kong is the type of game that will change the minds of the other 90%.

NSMBU also was the only notable exclusive game out on the WiiU for like 6 months.

there is no way to spin it. Nintendo fucked up badly with the first year.

However it is also not likely that they will stop producing stuff on wiiu. And as long as they dont drop the WiiU like Sega did with Dreamcast there is always the chance of a surprise (or expected) hit from nintendo.

 

[Manmademan]

define success. is just number one a success or can you be a success not being the market leader? i think last gen has changed a lot of that perceptions

1. There was a pattern in the video game industry that if you didnt do well in the first few month or the first year in the lifecycle that console would be bust.

not true at all. The PS1 didn't actually sell that well until a little after the N64 launch. It took a couple of years before really taking off. The N64 in contrast did MUCH better at launch then kind of tapered off. I think the Genesis had the same pattern. took a few years to start selling anything.

- PS3 sold badly (albeit better than WiiU now) in the first few month and people were writing it off. It also never had a sudden spike. it just gradually became better and better fixing problems one at a time. In 2009 suddenly Sony gained a lot of credit by existing users and the library backlog was good enough that people that bought other consoles would give it another look. Nowadays PS3 would be considered as a success

Sony was in a unique position. the PS2 and playstation as a brand were the strongest gaming brand in console history. Keep in mind the PS2 kept selling another 55 million consoles after the PS3, X360, and Wii were all on the market, and it remained in production for 12 years. Nintendo is not in that kind of position with the Wii. It's been dead for a couple of years now and isn't selling.

Because of that massive brand leverage, third parties invested heavily in the PS3 and thus could not really easily just pull support. The PS3 was also functionally identical to the 360 in terms of performance, just a little harder to program. So even though the 360 was outselling it early on, there was little risk for publishers to support the PS3 since all of the engines/assets/etc were cross platform.

The PS3 was also OVERWHELMINGLY dominant in the EU, thanks to games like Gran Turismo. As dominant as the 360 is in the US/UK, the PS3 is in continental europe. Publishers could not afford to simply not bring games to the strongest next gen platform in the EU.

Finally, the PS3 only had two real hurdles. One was cost, the other was difficulty in programming. Sony quickly stripped out everything unnecessary in the PS3 to address #1, and deployed ICE team to third parties to help with number two. Once it was at cost parity (or slightly more expensive than) the 360, it began outselling it YOY.

None of the above here apply to the WiiU. It's problems are deep rooted and fundamental issues that cannot be corrected with price drops or developer assistance, and they've let their brand (Wii) rot for two+ years before the Wii launched, losing both core AND casual gamers to other platforms. That kind of damage is damn near irreversible.

 

[TehOh]

Ouch at those third party sales on WiiU. At this point it's hard to imagine any third party supporting the platform next year.

I don't disagree that those sales are dire, but those 3rd parties also put out tiny numbers of Wii U discs. I bought Assassin's Creed 4 on Wii U, and I had to go to four stores before I found a copy. Target wasn't even stocking the Wii U version of the game in-store.

3rd party games can't sell large numbers unless those publishers actually put copies out there. It's a chicken and egg problem.

3rd parties put out shit ports at launch, mostly of old games, for full price -> weak sales -> 3rd parties put out tiny numbers of good ports -> even weaker sales -> 3rd parties stop developing for the system.

I don't think 3rd party sales would have been amazing even if they put out good ports of relevant games (or priced the ports of older games accordingly), but they wouldn't have been as abysmal. The people buying Wii U at launch already had those games on other systems, and were probably insulted by the shit portjobs and $60 price (especially on Mass Effect 3 - EA put the entire trilogy+DLC out in a collection for $60 on other systems and wondered why people didn't want to buy ME3 alone for the same price on another system).

Mind you, that "people buying Wii U at launch had the other systems" thing is also an issue. Nintendo should have made an effort to match Sony/MS in power so that the Wii U could continue to receive 3rd party ports. That would have helped the situation quite a bit, since going forward, people might buy the Wii U version of a game. I would have. I love off-screen play. Instead, I'll buy 3rd party games on PS4 once I get one of those and use Vita for off-screen play when the urge strikes me.

Instead, they have this generation's Dreamcast.

 

[Pie and Beans]

I don't know what's worse, being doubled by the DC or being tripled by the GC

Systems that knew their only chance was to go $150 impulse buy. WiiU still double that and Nintendo can't/won't halve the price for a year+/until they ditch GamePad.

Also worth mentioning the psychological aspect of it. Dreamcast was an amazing system, every foot right but it failed because the Saturn failed. To those that think Nintendo can release another future home console and turn this ship around, know that just how badly the WiiU fails almost completely decides that. Doubly because that 80-90 million extended 'casual' audience isn't coming back unless Nintendo is at the forefront of VR (no sign of such tech investment) which in turn requires a console 1.5x if not 2x a PS4 to do what Oculus suggests is required, along with the cost of the headset.

 

[Deprive]

Ehh.. hold on to that statement until Mario Kart, Smash and Tropical Freeze have come out at the very least lol.

Peeps will be holding out till then, they haven't spent all their ammo for the machine yet.

Tropical Freeze isn't going to move any HW. MK may or may not, probably should have launched that this fall. Smash is the only thing I can see moving HW, but there is that 3DS ver. Hell why buy any of that for the Wii U, when you can just get it on the 3DS for cheaper...

They may have not used all of their ammo, but it doesn't matter. What the Wii U has coming probably will not turn the tide.

Hell that chart says it all. Doing worse than the DC and the DC had a bunch of games worth playing.

Console is dead man :\

 

[Manmademan]

Tropical Freeze isn't going to move any HW. MK may or may not, probably should have launched that this fall. Smash is the only thing I can see moving HW, but there is that 3DS ver. Hell why buy any of that for the Wii U, when you can just get it on the 3DS for cheaper...

They may have not used all of their ammo, but it doesn't matter. What the Wii U has coming probably will not turn the tide.

Hell that chart says it all. Doing worse than the DC and the DC had a bunch of games worth playing.

Console is dead man :\

The DC was also the cheapest console on the market by far, unless you were looking at the PS1, which wasn't anywhere in the same league in terms of performance.

The WiiU on the other hand still has a MASSIVELY popular X360 and PS3 to contend with, coming in at lower price points, more compelling software, and identical horsepower.

The WiiU doesn't even have the "impulse buy" market locked up. That market is going PS360. there's never been a console more screwed than this one in terms of positioning. it's getting hammered by extremely popular consoles on the high AND low end without the resources to compete with either.

 

[SporeCrawler]

None of the above here apply to the WiiU. It's problems are deep rooted and fundamental issues that cannot be corrected with price drops or developer assistance, and they've let their brand (Wii) rot for two+ years before the Wii launched, losing both core AND casual gamers to other platforms. That kind of damage is damn near irreversible.

There is no denying that Nintendo is in a difficult position.

Howeve they are a rich company so they can make drastic moves like buying developers or slashing price if they see the need.

I wouldnt really give that much credit to whatever a brand is. Nintendo ditched the Gameboy brand for a new brand "DS" and that wasnt a bad decision. Sonys brand playstation was considered something that could never fail but actually it wasnt invincible as well. Sure they should have killed the Wii earlier or supported it for two more years rather than letting it rot like they did (which i think was a bad bad decision) but at the end of the day if the product has the right price and compelling software it will sell.

The DC was also the cheapest console on the market by far, unless you were looking at the PS1, which wasn't anywhere in the same league in terms of performance.

The WiiU on the other hand still has a MASSIVELY popular X360 and PS3 to contend with, coming in at lower price points, more compelling software, and identical horsepower.

The WiiU doesn't even have the "impulse buy" market locked up. That market is going PS360. there's never been a console more screwed than this one in terms of positioning. it's getting hammered by extremely popular consoles on the high AND low end without the resources to compete with either.

fully agree with this. They need to have the price level at an level equal to 360 or Ps3 or + 50 $ max.

 

[mattiewheels]

I'm curious because I never hear about it...did Disney Infinity fall off the face of the earth? It seemed like such a sure thing, but I realized it came and went and I can't recall any news about it.

 

[Pie and Beans]

Howeve they are a rich company so they can make drastic moves like buying developers or slashing price if they see the need.

Nintendo could have bought any number of developers in this past apocalyptic generation of devs going under. Great devs that would have filled huge holes in their portfolio such as Bizarre Creations, Eurocom, Vigil Games etc. They didn't. Hell they didn't even buy Atlus. And now theyre are just not that many people left to buy, many forced into smartphone development or lucky to make it big in PC dev.

Nintendo's riches also have to be saved in case they need to buyback all shares and become a private company again. If Nintendo were so cash rich, every WiiU doom topic wouldnt have "why isnt Nintendo spending more on marketing...?"