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NPD Sales Results for October 2009
- Thread starter EviLore
- Start date
Chumly said:
MH3 hasn't sold 1 million in Japan this year. doicare's "source" is probably talking about the "worldwide" report from a collaboration of NPD, Enterbrain, and Chart-Track/GfK. One problem with this "worldwide" report is that it isn't actually "worldwide," though. It's only for the markets that those companies cover, which isn't all of them. That doesn't matter with MH3, though, as the only market that's been released in is included. Nintendo's numbers, on the other hand, are truly worldwide, but they're not truly sales. Those are shipped numbers. Nintendo obviously knows how many disks it's printed for a game, after all.
Regardless, doicare's attitude, as postulated by Opiate, is the real problem there. No point continuing beating that horse, though.
yoy comparisons for Wii are stupid at this point. It was still sold out last October, so if they had shipped 200K consoles, that's what it would've sold in Oct-08. The only thing this "terrible" yoy decline tells us is that Wii is no longer sold out. Shocking revelation, I know. Any attempt to "analyze" this yoy decline for Wii that goes beyond "Well, it was sold out last year, and this year it isn't." is fraught with problems. If it's down 50% yoy in March of 2010 (i.e. after the sellout was ended), then it can be considered a terrible yoy decline.
legend166 said:
This gen is still ~24m shy of surpassing last gen. It's ~5m ahead of last gen's pace, though.
Donny, when do you think would be a reasonable time to expect the sales of console this generation to outdo last generation?
The reason I'm asking this is because people seem to think we won't be seeing new consoles until 2013 or something, and I'm wondering who exactly would be buying the current consoles in 2013.
The reason I'm asking this is because people seem to think we won't be seeing new consoles until 2013 or something, and I'm wondering who exactly would be buying the current consoles in 2013.
donny2112 said:
This doesn't make sense. YoY is stupid because the Wii was supply constrained last year? It's not constrained this year. Down is down. If anything, the supply problems make YoY comparisons look better than they really are. Demand is down much more than the YoY numbers would indicate.
jcm said:
You mean it's no longer sold out? Shocking.
Of course, demand is lower. Duh. It's the idea of trying to find any meaning in the amount of yoy decline. That's pointless. Wii selling 2m in November was due to having stock for 2m in November. Wii selling less per week in December than in November doesn't mean that demand was less. It means that supply was less. The main point being that beyond the obvious decline in demand, the amount of yoy decline is pretty pointless to try to derive meaning from.
Edit:
Example:
If NOA had shipped 600K last October instead of 800K, beyond making March probably higher some, it would mean the yoy decline was 16% instead of 37%. Does that actually tell us anything more? No. It still tells us that last year it was sold out and it sold what it shipped, and that this year demand is lower.
donny2112 said:
No, I mean demand is way down, as opposed to just being down. Since we have no way to measure last year's demand, we have to go with the numbers we have. It doesn't make it pointless. It just means we have to acknowledge that the actual picture is worse than the numbers indicate.
Nintendo selling significantly fewer units than last year is meaningful. Th meaning is that there aren't nearly as many people who are buying Wiis as there were last year. As far as percentages go, they can be used to say "it's at least this bad".
Edit:
Ugh. Sorry. I'm not sure why I'm being so whatever I'm being that's not nice with this. Suffice it to say that months in or immediately around sellouts are not too useful for comparison to subsequent years beyond pointing out that one year was in sellout and another wasn't (and the gross change in supply/demand ratio that would indicate). One previous example would be PS2 in Fall 2004 where it was down 50% yoy in December, but made back a lot of that the following Jan/Feb due to shortages in Fall 2004.
Yes, demand is down. No, trying to use the numbers in a meaningful is not likely to be especially helpful beyond the overall picture of lessened Wii demand, which likely isn't a surprise to anyone.
Ugh. Sorry. I'm not sure why I'm being so whatever I'm being that's not nice with this. Suffice it to say that months in or immediately around sellouts are not too useful for comparison to subsequent years beyond pointing out that one year was in sellout and another wasn't (and the gross change in supply/demand ratio that would indicate). One previous example would be PS2 in Fall 2004 where it was down 50% yoy in December, but made back a lot of that the following Jan/Feb due to shortages in Fall 2004.
Yes, demand is down. No, trying to use the numbers in a meaningful is not likely to be especially helpful beyond the overall picture of lessened Wii demand, which likely isn't a surprise to anyone.
Version 3.0
Member
legend166 said:
PS2: 44.69M
Xbox: 14.50M
Gamecube: 11.77M
Total: 71.08M
For comparison's sake, here's last gen as of this point (October 2004):
PS2: 24.97M
Xbox: 9.94M
Gamecube: 7.87M
Total: 42.78M
and here's this gen as of now:
360: 16.50M
PS3: 9.06M
Wii: 22.06M
Total: 47.62M
Edit: corrected Gamecube 2004 number.
The Faceless Master
Member
edit: nm
Not that I enjoy bringing up old arguements, but after some looking around I have find that the PSP Go has been hacked. That means the PSP3000 users and PSP Go users can play(steal) both UMD(ISOs) and downloaded(ISOs) games without paying. Now here's the point, why would we expect these people(3000 users in particular) who haven't paid before to suddenly pay because they can download it now?(though they have already been downloading it before) I think we can safely say that the number of downloaded games to the 3000s and Go is going to be very small(especially when you factor in the prices verus retail for 3000 users). The fact the 3000 users can also download means very little.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Linkup said:
The Go is hacked? Woah.
boiled goose
good with gravy
Leondexter said:
Holy shit gamecube bomba
Leondexter said:
With each system way ahead of their respective placement last gen (well, except the Wii, which is behind the PS2 now, but only because it launched a year after the generation started), we'll probably see this gen surpass next gen in about 18 months.
Anyway, there are about 5-6m sales of the Dreamcast missing.
boiled goose
good with gravy
donny2112 said:
that makes much more sense.
Version 3.0
Member
donny2112 said:
Version 3.0
Member
AniHawk said:
The Dreamcast died too early; all those people had to go buy another console.
Are the top 10s for each console available anywhere? I've only been able to compile partial lists:
Top 10 PSP games:
1) Gran Turismo
2) WWE Smackdown vs. Raw 2010
3) Madden NFL 10
4) Dissidia: Final Fantasy
5) NBA 2K10
6) ???
7) ???
8) ???
9) ???
10) Lego Batman
Top 10 Wii games:
1) Wii Fit Plus 441,000
2) Wii Sports Resot 314,000
3) Mario Kart w/ Wheel 85,000 113,000
4) ???
5) ???
6) Cabella's Big Game Hunter 2010
7) The Beatles: Rock Band
8) ???
9) ???
10) ???
Top 10 360 games:
1) Borderlands 418,000
2) NBA 2K10 311,000
3) Halo 3: ODST 271,000
4) Forza Motorsport 3 175,000
5) FIFA Soccer 10 156,000
6) Brutal Legend 150,000
7) WWE Smackdown vs. Raw 2010
8) Madden NFL 10 85,000 113,000
9) ??? (Tekken 6? 50,000 85,000 (probably 80k))
10) ???
Top 10 PS3 games:
1) Uncharted 2: Among Thieves 537,000
2) NBA 2K10 213,000
3) Demon's Souls 150,000 156,000
4) FIFA Soccer 10 113,000 150,000
5) Tekken 6 113,000 130,000 (probably 120k)
6) Borderlands 113,000
7) ??? (Ratchet and Clank? 85,000 113,000)
8) ??? (WWE Smackdown vs. Raw 2010?)
9) ??? (Brutal Legend? 66,000)
10) ???
Top 10 DS games:
1) Kingdom Hearts 358/2 Days 169,000
2) Mario & Luigi: Bowser's Ins. Story 113,000 150,000
3) Pokémon Mystery Dungeon: EOS 85,000 113,000
4) ???
5) ???
6) Scribblenauts
7) ???
8) ???
9) ???
10) ???
Top 10 PSP games:
1) Gran Turismo
2) WWE Smackdown vs. Raw 2010
3) Madden NFL 10
4) Dissidia: Final Fantasy
5) NBA 2K10
6) ???
7) ???
8) ???
9) ???
10) Lego Batman
Top 10 Wii games:
1) Wii Fit Plus 441,000
2) Wii Sports Resot 314,000
3) Mario Kart w/ Wheel 85,000 113,000
4) ???
5) ???
6) Cabella's Big Game Hunter 2010
7) The Beatles: Rock Band
8) ???
9) ???
10) ???
Top 10 360 games:
1) Borderlands 418,000
2) NBA 2K10 311,000
3) Halo 3: ODST 271,000
4) Forza Motorsport 3 175,000
5) FIFA Soccer 10 156,000
6) Brutal Legend 150,000
7) WWE Smackdown vs. Raw 2010
8) Madden NFL 10 85,000 113,000
9) ??? (Tekken 6? 50,000 85,000 (probably 80k))
10) ???
Top 10 PS3 games:
1) Uncharted 2: Among Thieves 537,000
2) NBA 2K10 213,000
3) Demon's Souls 150,000 156,000
4) FIFA Soccer 10 113,000 150,000
5) Tekken 6 113,000 130,000 (probably 120k)
6) Borderlands 113,000
7) ??? (Ratchet and Clank? 85,000 113,000)
8) ??? (WWE Smackdown vs. Raw 2010?)
9) ??? (Brutal Legend? 66,000)
10) ???
Top 10 DS games:
1) Kingdom Hearts 358/2 Days 169,000
2) Mario & Luigi: Bowser's Ins. Story 113,000 150,000
3) Pokémon Mystery Dungeon: EOS 85,000 113,000
4) ???
5) ???
6) Scribblenauts
7) ???
8) ???
9) ???
10) ???
Rated-Rsuperstar
Member
Wow, that's quite piss poor. I wonder if the psn version outsold the umd. I would hope so.
Here is what I use to calculate the launch date of next gen Wii. The announced ship date of Dragon Quest X (which I assume will be on the Wii), count to the following holiday season.
The announced ship day of the 3rd Final Fantasy title, (which I assume will be FF7 remake,) count to the following Thanksgiving, will be the worldwide launch of the PS4. Because the PS4 will try to sell you have some kind of new industry standard (that Sony has large leverage over). We are not hearing any fancy new tech right now, so I think the PS4 is a long way away.
The launch of the next Xbox is slightly harder to forecast. I think MS has already considered Xbox division "mission accomplished", so it will have less resource to go into the launch of next Xbox. Never forget MS's original goal of Xbox was to block Playstation becoming the standard home entertainment console. Since Sony is not doing much on this (hardware) end and MS is under all out assault by google on the other (browser OS) end, so I assume the Xbox 3 gameplan will have to be self-profitable. I think Xbox 3 will launch earlier than PS4, and MS will have the uber fancy Xbox live 3 to make people upgrade.
The announced ship day of the 3rd Final Fantasy title, (which I assume will be FF7 remake,) count to the following Thanksgiving, will be the worldwide launch of the PS4. Because the PS4 will try to sell you have some kind of new industry standard (that Sony has large leverage over). We are not hearing any fancy new tech right now, so I think the PS4 is a long way away.
The launch of the next Xbox is slightly harder to forecast. I think MS has already considered Xbox division "mission accomplished", so it will have less resource to go into the launch of next Xbox. Never forget MS's original goal of Xbox was to block Playstation becoming the standard home entertainment console. Since Sony is not doing much on this (hardware) end and MS is under all out assault by google on the other (browser OS) end, so I assume the Xbox 3 gameplan will have to be self-profitable. I think Xbox 3 will launch earlier than PS4, and MS will have the uber fancy Xbox live 3 to make people upgrade.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
tino said:
Dragon Quest X is currently announced for the Wii, yes.
I'm not sure this is a good prediction though. Dragon Quest VII released in Fall 2000 in Japan. The PS2 released in Spring 2000. Dragon Quest VI came out in December 95. N64 came out in June 96.
That'd be versus XIII, but I'm not sure that's really a good prediction. Final Fantasy XII came out in March 2006 while the PS3 launched in Fall 2006--but Final Fantasy IX came out after the PS2 did and Final Fantasy 6 came out more than two years before the N64.
AKingNamedPaul
I am Homie
I am left bewildered and confused at this prediction.AniHawk said:
Version 3.0
Member
AniHawk said:
I was just kidding. I didn't list it because I don't have the numbers, and these 3 are the direct predecessors of the current 3. For completeness' sake, we should be listing handhelds as well, because that market has expanded hugely (to my dismay) this gen.