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[GhaleonEB]

now thats just crazy talk

(mass effects position among 360-titles could be correct though)

I think SMG will have a *huge* debut, well above Halo 3. That said, I'm expecting another 300-500k of Halo 3; everything is relative when talking about AAA first-party titles in November.

 

[Belgorim]

Bioshock is barely at a million right? That means they might be getting close to breaking even, in which case its not a bomb.

Are you trying to say Bioshock didnt break even?

 

[mr_bishiuk]

I wouldn't be surprise in the next NPD:

1) Mario Galaxy (Wii)
2) ME (X360)
3) COD4 (X360)
4) Assassin's Creed (X360)
5) COD4 (PS3)
.....

ME could be #2 or #3. If you are talking about combine sales on all platforms, could be another story.

COD4 on 360 will be the number 1 game, above SMG and ME

 

[gcfan2k5]

It sold 1.5 million. Only 750k beta players reported

If 750k bought it specifically for crackdown, without halo3 beta it wouldve been a bomb financially (1.3 million is break even point for ubisoft, 1 million is a fair estimate for breaking even)

 

[gcfan2k5]

Are you trying to say Bioshock didnt break even?

Im trying to say it may not have, given that you need 1 million sales or more to break even on 360 according to Ubisoft and others. Bioshock is overrated anyway (its VERY short, linear, and the hacking system is all kinds of broken, not to mention being too easy, even on the hardest difficulty).

 

[Belgorim]

Im trying to say it may not have, given that you need 1 million sales or more to break even on 360 according to Ubisoft and others. Bioshock is overrated anyway (its VERY short, linear, and the hacking system is all kinds of broken, not to mention being too easy, even on the hardest difficulty).

All 360 games do not have the same budget.

 

[duk]

Bioshock is overrated anyway...

ahh yes, I stopped just right there

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

If 750k bought it specifically for crackdown, without halo3 beta it wouldve been a bomb financially (1.3 million is break even point for ubisoft, 1 million is a fair estimate for breaking even)

Not all people, like myself, bought it to play specifically for the beta. I truly enjoyed the game.

Besides, Crackdown cost was 15 million IIRC. 750k sold to retailers at $48 a piece = $36,000,000. Please show me the bomb. Since it sold 1.5 million, it made $72,000,000. That is a great success

 

[mr_bishiuk]

Bioshock is barely at a million right? That means they might be getting close to breaking even, in which case its not a bomb.

Mass Effect will bomb because it isnt KOTOR3.

Games have to sell a million to break even now? thats simly wrong, the game industry would have to pack up if that was the case!

Mass effect wont bomb R&C style, it will probably manage 300k in the week that counts for the NPD's for November I think you have underestimated about MS's ability to get its "community" out buying their titles

 

[RBH]

(1.3 million is break even point for ubisoft, 1 million is a fair estimate for breaking even)

And how exactly are you coming up with these numbers?

 

[mr_bishiuk]

And how exactly are you coming up with these numbers?

ye old lick finger and stick in the air trick I reckon

 

[dammitmattt]

Ratchet is not and won't be a bomb. When holiday season is over I wouldn't be surprised to see it past 300k, and give it a year it'll be where resistance is at. That's pretty much the exact same selling pattern as previous R&C games btw, none of them had huge first month.

As for Uncharted probably in Nov + Dec will be between 200-300k, and like Ratchet it'll continue to sell in 2008.

Ratchet is already a bomb. Unlike the last Ratchets, which were great titles in the middle of a FLOOD of great PS2 titles, this is a blockbuster tentpole title for Sony in an established franchise. It had a big budget and has been marketed fairly heavily. I'm sure that Ratchet had to sell a lot more than 300k during this holiday season to be considered a success and to be profitable.

The same is true for Uncharted.

Why are expectations so much lower for PS3 titles? If Mass Effect sold anything close to these numbers, people would be yelling "bomba" from all four corners of the earth, but since they are PS3 titles, they get a free pass. Don't make no sense.

 

[BishopLamont]

I bet Halo 3 does better than SMG.

It will be:

1. COD4
2. Halo 3
3. GH3 360
4. Assassin's Creed 360
5. Mass Effect
6. SMG

You're batshit insane if you think SMG will do anything less then #1.

 

[duk]

You're batshit insane if you think SMG will do anything less then #1.

sorry COD4 will beat SMG

 

[Eteric Rice]

You're batshit insane if you think SMG will do anything less then #1.

Hope your right.

Galaxy is fucking fantastic. Best game in years.

 

[SPEA]

You're batshit insane if you think SMG will do anything less then #1.

I don't know. I agree with him. Halo will definitly pick up a lot because of the holidays and COD4 seems to be huge. I wouldn't be suprised the least bit if 1 of those 2 took the number 1 spot next month.

 

[acklame]

Ratchet is already a bomb. Unlike the last Ratchets, which were great titles in the middle of a FLOOD of great PS2 titles, this is a blockbuster tentpole title for Sony in an established franchise. It had a big budget and has been marketed fairly heavily. I'm sure that Ratchet had to sell a lot more than 300k during this holiday season to be considered a success and to be profitable.

The same is true for Uncharted.

Umm no, why would you have a higher expectation for it than on PS2, when PS2 had much larger user base? The very first Ratchet was released before the flood of great PS2 games, why should this one sell any different from that? Now R&CF is an awesome game and I would love to see it sell billions of copies, but that's just unrealistic expectation. And FYI marketing didn't start till 10/30, which was the release date until very close to the launch. If it can manage 300k this holiday season it'll be just fine.

 

[Hunter D]

I doubt ME will bomb. Anytime I enter an online game and hear people talking about it they are usually excited. I have yet to see a game fail when random people are talking about it during mp games.

 

[Liquid]

i doubt ratchets 74k even covered advertising. that kinda puts it into perspective how bad it came out the gates.

 

[BishopLamont]

sorry COD4 will beat SMG

I'm willing to bet SMG will break a million in November, wanna take the bite?

 

[Kevtones]

ME won't bomb, there is no fucking chance. 500K+ is a given I think.


COD4 might trump SMG, although SMG is a better game

Assassin's Creed will sell extremely well too.

 

[titiklabingapat]

sorry COD4 will beat SMG

That's like saying COD4 will beat Halo 3 or FFXIII or GT5 or SSBB.

 

[szaromir]

I don't know. I agree with him. Halo will definitly pick up a lot because of the holidays.

It can only sell as much as Xbox 360 itself now. It has already over 50% attach ratio, so I think if old users wanted to have it, they'd already buy it.

I think SMG will have a *huge* debut, well above Halo 3. That said, I'm expecting another 300-500k of Halo 3; everything is relative when talking about AAA first-party titles in November.

They may compete in all time worldwide total eventually, but there's now way SMG will beat 3.3M in November NPD.

 

[gcfan2k5]

And how exactly are you coming up with these numbers?

Guillemot said Ubisoft currently has 400-500 people who are dedicated to the Wii platform right now, and believes that next year, Ubisoft will have “Nintendo-like quality” on the Wii.

He also praised the DS for helping expand Ubisoft’s business as well as the industry worldwide. CFO Alain Martinez added that DS games, with their relatively low development costs, achieve profitability at around 100,000 units sold, while a next-gen game for PS3 or Xbox 360 needs to sell around 1.3 million."

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=7839&Itemid=2

You cant beat the info coming straight from the Chief Financial Officer of Ubisoft, one of the 360s strongest supporters, and a relatively large third party.

They start profiting on a 360/ps3 game at 1.3mln. 1mln is a fair estimate for other companies.

 

[Liquid]

I'm willing to bet SMG will break a million in November, wanna take the bite?

i dunno if its because nintendo shipped tons or what but there has been no shortage of copies anywhere i've been. got mine day one. Not at TRU tho. maybe everyone was funneled there but when you see 50+ copies sitting on the shelf mid afternoon it is indeed WTF. I say it'll sell more in december than november.

 

[mr_bishiuk]

It can only sell as much as Xbox 360 itself now. It has already over 50% attach ratio, so I think if old users wanted to have it, they'd already buy it.

They may compete in all time worldwide total eventually, but there's now way SMG will beat 3.3M in November NPD.

but if 500k buy 360's in November then its likly half of them will buy Halo 3 as one of their first games

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=7839&Itemid=2

You cant beat the info coming straight from the Chief Financial Officer of Ubisoft, one of the 360s strongest supporters, and a relatively large third party.

They start profiting on a 360/ps3 game at 1.3mln. 1mln is a fair estimate for other companies.

Namco said that they need 500k sold to break a profit. It's evident that UBI needs to tweak their strategy.

http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3155564

We aren't exactly sure how many PlayStation 3s Sony's managed to push through North America and Japan yet, but we're positive it's not enough to help Namco Bandai break even on Ridge Racer 7 and Gundam development. Speaking to Bloomberg, the publisher said they need to sell more than 500,000 copies worldwide to come out ahead on the racing sequel.

All games aren't created equal

 

[BishopLamont]

i dunno if its because nintendo shipped tons or what but there has been no shortage of copies anywhere i've been. got mine day one. Not at TRU tho. maybe everyone was funneled there but when you see 50+ copies sitting on the shelf mid afternoon it is indeed WTF. I say it'll sell more in december than november.

No Shortage != No Sales.

 

[CajoleJuice]

\They may compete in all time worldwide total eventually, but there's now way SMG will beat 3.3M in November NPD.

I think he meant SMG will beat Halo 3 in the November NPD.

 

[mr_bishiuk]

They start profiting on a 360/ps3 game at 1.3mln. 1mln is a fair estimate for other companies.

Sounds like Ubisoft need to be more efficient, thats typical for a French company!

I think he meant SMG will beat Halo 3 in the November NPD.

He really stuck is neck out on that one then!

 

[Link]

i dunno if its because nintendo shipped tons or what but there has been no shortage of copies anywhere i've been. got mine day one. Not at TRU tho. maybe everyone was funneled there but when you see 50+ copies sitting on the shelf mid afternoon it is indeed WTF. I say it'll sell more in december than november.

That doesn't prove anything. It's not like Halo 3 was hard to find at all when it came out. In fact, the biggest selling games (GTA, for example) are always in plentiful supply when they're new.

I do agree with you that Galaxy could sell more in December than November, since it's a family friendly title, but I reserve the right to retract that statement once November NPD is released.


EDIT -

but if 500k buy 360's in November then its likly half of them will buy Halo 3 as one of their first games

Are you inferring Galaxy is going to sell less than 250k this month?

 

[gcfan2k5]

Namco said that they need 500k sold to break a profit. It's evident that UBI needs to tweak their strategy.

http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3155564



All games aren't created equal

Namco hasnt created a big budget title this gen outside of Ace Combat 6, and MAYBE Eternal Sonata. When that interview took place i think the ridge racers were about the only notable namco releases. Developers sell a game to a wholesaler or a large retail outlet for around 42 dollars (they are sold on dropshipping websites for 44.99 on launch day). 6 - 8 dollars for royalties/licensing fees. Then advertising, and the publishers cut, and the developers are left with VERY little of that money.

 

[GarthVaderUK]

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=7839&Itemid=2

You cant beat the info coming straight from the Chief Financial Officer of Ubisoft, one of the 360s strongest supporters, and a relatively large third party.

They start profiting on a 360/ps3 game at 1.3mln. 1mln is a fair estimate for other companies.

1.3 million to consumers or 1.3 million to retailers?
NPD tracks sales to consumers don't they?
If retailers, a game could still be profitable without 1.3 million sales to consumers. Or maybe I'm doing it wrong?

 

[Count Dookkake]

No Shortage != No Sales.

QFT.

Remember, even Sony said as much. Something about having less than 30 units in stock was a supply constraint...

 

[gcfan2k5]

1.3 million to consumers or 1.3 million to retailers?
NPD tracks sales to consumers don't they? So a game could still be profitable without 1.3 million sales to consumers.

Retailers rarely ever order more copies of a game than will sell, unless a game underperforms. But yes thats sales to Retailers, they dont see a penny of the extra money a retailer makes selling the game. $54.6mln revenue roughly is break-even on ps3/360 for Ubisoft for a title according to their CFO (assuming $42 per copy sold, a fair estimate given 99% of games are 44.99 on dropshippers/wholesaler websites from day 1)

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

Namco hasnt created a big budget title this gen outside of Ace Combat 6, and MAYBE Eternal Sonata. When that interview took place i think the ridge racers were about the only notable namco releases. Developers sell a game to a wholesaler or a large retail outlet for around 42 dollars (they are sold on dropshipping websites for 44.99 on launch day). 6 - 8 dollars for royalties/licensing fees. Then advertising, and the publishers cut, and the developers are left with VERY little of that money.

1.3 million x $48 to retailers = 62,400,000
There is no game in existence that costs 62,400,000 to make. Killzone 2 is the highest amount thus far at 40 million. Now, consider adding 10 million to the marketing budget, which is extremely high as well. That is still only 50 million. I'm going to say that the UBI CFO answered that conference call distracted because there is no way in hell they need to sell that much to break even. No way.

 

[mr_bishiuk]

EDIT - Are you inferring Galaxy is going to sell less than 250k this month?

No! Why are we discussing whether SMG will beat Halo in November? Of course it bloody will!

 

[Count Dookkake]

1.3 million x $48 to retailers = 62,400,000
There is no game in existence that costs 62,400,000 to make. Killzone 2 is the highest amount thus far at 40 million. Now, consider adding 10 million to the marketing budget, which is extremely high as well. That is still only 50 million. I'm going to say that the UBI CFO answered that conference call distracted because there is no way in hell they need to sell that much to break even. No way.

Do these numbers include things like shipping, advertising, etc?

EDIT: oops, missed a sentence in your post. Durr.

 

[gcfan2k5]

1.3 million x $48 to retailers = 62,400,000
There is no game in existence that costs 62,400,000 to make. Killzone 2 is the highest amount thus far at 40 million. Now, consider adding 10 million to the marketing budget, which is extremely high as well. That is still only 50 million. I'm going to say that the UBI CFO answered that conference call distracted because there is no way in hell they need to sell that much to break even. No way.

8 dollars in royalties per copy, then shipping and advertising costs. Also the publisher if applicable gets a cut before the developers even see a dime. Its closer to $42 per copy, 34 per copy if you take out for the royalties.

If you are calling the CFO of ubisoft a liar, thats fine, im going by what he says, hes in a better position to know than anyone on this board is.

 

[gwiz210]

I'm pleasantly surprised to see Phantom Hourglass on the top 10

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

I don't think first-party titles are really fair game. No shit the Wii isn't getting first-party titles from Sony and Microsoft.

What games did I list that were first party? Sony doesn't own Insomniac.

And yeah, I'd say the 1.3 million number would much more realistic for a title like Assassin's Creed, which probably cost upwards of $30 million to make, and probably a good chunk to market (although Sony's doubtlessly been helping in that regard).

A game like America's Army, for example, is essentially a map pack for GRAW2. Every copy sold is probably 100% profit.

Oh, and throw me in with the crazies who believe Call of Duty 4 will outsell Super Mario Galaxy in November. That extra week is going to be big.

 

[Randy Lanzarote]

Ubisoft's '1.3 million games sold to make a profit' mantra sounds like a load of whooey to me. Either Ubisoft REALLY need to re-evaluate their business model, or they were crying out for some sort of financial/development assistance from Sony and MS on a few key projects.

I wouldn't be surprised if AC had to pull in 1.3 million sales to make a profit. 4 years of development time and a few hundred coders on the project, I bet its been a sink hole for Ubisoft's finances. No wonder they wanted it out this year, in a state of readiness or not.

 

[Eteric Rice]

All I know is that if I were a small company, I'd be making WiiWare, PSOnline, and Live games right now.

GOOD ones.

One bad game is all it takes to fuck up your name.

 

[gcfan2k5]

Ubisoft's '1.3 million games sold to make a profit' mantra sounds like a load of whooey to me. Either Ubisoft REALLY need to re-evaluate their business model, or they were crying out for some sort of financial/development assistance from Sony and MS on a few key projects.

I wouldn't be surprised if AC had to pull in 1.3 million sales to make a profit. 4 years of development time and a few hundred coders on the project, I bet its been a sink hole for Ubisoft's finances. No wonder they wanted it out this year, in a state of readiness or not.

Im sure they meant for their big titles, not just any title is going to have costs that high.
Still, i can almost guarantee that any big budget title that doesnt hit at LEAST 1 million, isnt breaking even, more than one dev has said it.

 

[gcfan2k5]

All I know is that if I were a small company, I'd be making WiiWare, PSOnline, and Live games right now.

GOOD ones.

One bad game is all it takes to fuck up your name.

Indeed, there is no money to be had in next-gen for small companies. Wii games, and the various download services, and DS are the only options. Only the companies that publish their own games have a shot at breaking even and profit, and there are very few of those companies.

Id REALLY hate to see how much money PGR4 has lost Bizarre Creations. Its probably one of the reasons they were more or less swallowed by Activision.

 

[mr_bishiuk]

Indeed, there is no money to be had in next-gen for small companies. Wii games, and the various download services, and DS are the only options. Only the companies that publish their own games have a shot at breaking even and profit, and there are very few of those companies.

Id REALLY hate to see how much money PGR4 has lost Bizarre Creations. Its probably one of the reasons they were more or less swallowed by Activision.

I dont know about PGR4, most of the hard work would have been done on PGR3 and MS published it and advertised it, it will do well when it is discounted

 

[gcfan2k5]

I dont know about PGR4, most of the hard work would have been done on PGR3 and MS published it and advertised it, it will do well when it is discounted

38 thousand sold in its first FULL MONTH AT RETAIL in the US, 9.5k per week. Thats pathetically bad for any title, and PGR4 was a significant upgrade in nearly every way from PGR3, it cant have been cheap. Those new cities wouldve taken quite awhile to model, texture and light. Old cities got new routes, and upgrades graphically as well. The addition of bikes changes the physics model quite a bit, as does the dynamic weather system (which is AMAZING by the way, EVERY new racing game NEEDS that system).

 

[Deku]

Ubisoft's '1.3 million games sold to make a profit' mantra sounds like a load of whooey to me. Either Ubisoft REALLY need to re-evaluate their business model, or they were crying out for some sort of financial/development assistance from Sony and MS on a few key projects.

I wouldn't be surprised if AC had to pull in 1.3 million sales to make a profit. 4 years of development time and a few hundred coders on the project, I bet its been a sink hole for Ubisoft's finances. No wonder they wanted it out this year, in a state of readiness or not.

I think its actually accurate, though exagerrated. It may include cost of building an engine from sratch.

It's all irrelevant anyways, a lot of PS3 exclusives are going multi so they will be profitable eventually, but the days of insane profitability with just 1 million units sold may be behind us.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Indeed, there is no money to be had in next-gen for small companies. Wii games, and the various download services, and DS are the only options. Only the companies that publish their own games have a shot at breaking even and profit, and there are very few of those companies.

Id REALLY hate to see how much money PGR4 has lost Bizarre Creations. Its probably one of the reasons they were more or less swallowed by Activision.

Since MS funded and published it, I doubt Bizarre lost a single penny.

 

[Draft]

If a typical next-gen game (ie- an X360 or PS3 title) actually needs 1 million units sold just to break even, then it's time to fucking wrap it up. The next-gen business model is fundamentally flawed, and everyone should move their resources to handheld and downloadable development.

That being said, I have serious doubts that most or even many next-gen games need 1 million sold to be profitable. But that being said, I am dumb, and don't really know what I'm talking about.