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[Randolph Freelander]

If I am going to make a rather bold claim that Wii succeeded and failed within the same generation, I want to be sure I'm being fair. Presumably, we have all been well aware that hardware units began to dip midway through the generation (not outside the norm for any console) and eventually just plummet, but I wanted to look at how software also fared.

I've grabbed data off Nintendo's financials to show growth of hardware LTD by fiscal year and software units sold each year for the Americas and worldwide.

In each case, the software units peak in fiscal year 2009, which ended on March 31, 2009. So within 2.5 years, software had peaked. Hardware also sold the most that particular fiscal year. At that point, software declined the remainder of the generation. However, total hardware sold would go on to double. More buyers were coming onto the system, but existing owners were simply buying less and less software to where in 2009 worldwide, owners bought about 4 pieces of software that year, and by 2012, that number was down to just 1 piece of software in the year, and half as much software overall in real terms. Americas went from around 5 pieces of software to just above 1, and less than half overall in real terms. The Wii U launch occurred in the back half of fiscal year 2013, during which year the Wii sold about 1 unit of software for every 2 owners.

The data indicates that owners were becoming steadily disengaged from the platform. But again, I want to be fair, this is just one piece of the puzzle. I do not know how the other platforms were doing. I can say Wii died, owners stopped supporting software (and they did), and use that as basis to claim Wii failed, but I do not have enough data to see if the competition saw similar declines in software units, or what the previous generation did.

 

[LOCK]

DATA

I think this is an excellent example of how Nintendo should have launched a Wii 2 in 2011.

 

[Rivver]

3) For full access to their nonsense, they charge:

a) $4,000 a year for Top 500

b) $12,000-$20,000 a year for their weekly database

That's right...for full access to their stolen (massaged) NPD figures and their made-up estimates that they call "sales figures," you only need to pay thousands and thousands of dollars.

I thought you were making that up at first, but, uh, it turns out you weren't. Who would subscribe to that?

 

[plasmawave]

This includes the black friday stuff too, right?
Cuz I'm seeing people say it doesn't.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

This includes the black friday stuff too, right?
Cuz I'm seeing people say it doesn't.

Yes, it covers that Friday and Saturday. November NPD period covered the 4 weeks from November 3 through November 30. December NPD will cover 5 weeks, December 1 through January 4.

 

[Aquamarine]

This includes the black friday stuff too, right?
Cuz I'm seeing people say it doesn't.

These are sales from November 3rd through November 30th, so yes, this includes Black Friday.

 

[Finalizer]

If I am going to make a rather bold claim that Wii succeeded and failed within the same generation

That's a bold claim? I thought it was generally understood that the Wii fell off a cliff toward the end of last gen.

 

[Averon]

Anyone know the PS4's software attach rate?

 

[jryi]

Sony caught up to and passed the 360 in the last couple years in sales.

Maybe the perception is the reason why Sony is not so forthcoming with their NPD figures. Especially now, that it seems they are trouncing Xbox One globally. They want to shift focus from US only to worldwide, and therefore they won't put too much stock in American sales.

That's why Sony has been so quiet for so long (wow, ten days, now...) They want to come out with a number that is going to stay there for a while without MS being able to touch it. Maybe they'll announce reaching 4M before Christmas. Is 4.5M out of the realm of possibility?

Anyway, they want to have one number that everyone is looking at and thinking "when is MS ever going to get there". I mean, MS was surprisingly fast at announcing their 2M soon after Sony.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

That's a bold claim? I thought it was generally understood that the Wii fell off a cliff toward the end of last gen.

Well, if you scroll up a few posts, I called the PS3 and Wii failures for the generation, which is kind of hard to swallow outside of additional context. How can a 100 million unit console, one that came off a 22 million unit predecessor, one that helped generate tons of sales revenue and profits for Nintendo, possibly have failed?

Anyone know the PS4's software attach rate?

Roughly 2. I'll find a link to a reputable poster's post... edit: here you go http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=93553125&postcount=4142

 

[Jeff-DSA]

Agreed. Shame people slept on NFS: Rivals.

But DAMN at those PS4 numbers equating to almost every other platform combined.

I just picked it up for PS4. Going to start it tomorrow.

 

[plasmawave]

Yes, it covers that Friday and Saturday. November NPD period covered the 4 weeks from November 3 through November 30. December NPD will cover 5 weeks, December 1 through January 4.

These are sales from November 3rd through November 30th, so yes, this includes Black Friday.

Alright, thanks for clearing that up.

 

[quetz67]

Too bad. It is my favorite PS4 game.

I still can't see how 300K in one month in one region and not counting digital sales is bad. I will buy as soon as I get a PS4.

 

[Guevara]

Something like this?

Handhelds hardware, Jan-Nov.

I think I already wrote somewhere in the thread, December last year pushed handheld sales over 7M for 2012. I think this year it will only be slightly above 5M.

Appreciate it, thanks.

The handheld market really fell off a cliff. 2014 should be a monster for the 3DS at least, will be interesting to see if it can buck the trend.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

Since we're having fun with graphs, this is Nintendo's handheld software going back to FY3/2001.

Put that together with the hardware curve, it kind of lets you know the challenge Nintendo is facing in graphical terms. Total software worldwide is below FY3/2005 levels, which was the first year of the GBA-DS transition, and FY3/2013 was the third year of the DS-3DS transition.

Data is again straight from Nintendo's financials.

 

[Lexxism]

Wait. Is this just US posts? Or does it include worldwide post totals? Guys, this is important.

Worldwide post of course. I posted here several times and I'm not in the US.

 

[walltowall]

I agree mostly, mostly with what you are aiming at.

Sony went from supreme domination to battling for number 2. From owning like 70% of the console market to battles for 33%.

But now that we are looking at the end of the generation, Sony is at 80 million, MS is at 80 million, and Nintendo is at 100 millionish. Yes Sony did a super face plant compared to last gen. But they still came out OK.

Not bashing Sony or anything but from a business perspective, when you sell 45% less than the previous gen AND the market expanded but the number of manufacturers/competition DID NOT increase you did not do OK, you've taken a big step backward. Nintendo's and MS' gains came at Sony's expense and they were able to take advantage of market growth.

 

[kswiston]

Since we're having fun with graphs, this is Nintendo's handheld software going back to FY 2001.

Put that together with the hardware curve, it kind of lets you know the challenge Nintendo is facing in graphical terms. Total software worldwide is below FY2005 levels, which was the first year of the GBA-DS transition, and FY2013 was the third year of the DS-3DS transition.

Data is again straight from Nintendo's financials.

This is going to be worse in FY2014, because 3DS hasn't really picked up much of the slack for DS collapsing this year.

EDIT: Read the graph wrong. This is software. I still think that next year will be lower though.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Appreciate it, thanks.

The handheld market really fell off a cliff. 2014 should be a monster for the 3DS at least, will be interesting to see if it can buck the trend.

Wait what? 3DS just got its biggest western release (Pokemon) this year along with a 99SKU launch. How is next year going to exceed this year? I see a decline.

 

[Petrae]

Wait what? 3DS just got its biggest western release (Pokemon) this year along with a 99SKU launch. How is next year going to exceed this year? I see a decline.

Unless a price drop is in the cards, I tend to agree. 2013 was a big year for first-party software-- which is the driving force for the 2/3DS family-- and I'm not sure what Nintendo can realistically do for an encore... though if Smash Bros. arrives as expected, it can only help.

That said, a price cut sometime in the next fiscal year isn't an impossibility. $100 for 2DS could be a great number so long as Nintendo isn't losing a ton on the hardware. Sweet spot for 3DS pricing is a bit tougher to call; it needs to be a relative premium but not so expensive that it dissuades future purchases.

 

[walltowall]

Unless a price drop is in the cards, I tend to agree. 2013 was a big year for first-party software-- which is the driving force for the 2/3DS family-- and I'm not sure what Nintendo can realistically do for an encore... though if Smash Bros. arrives as expected, it can only help.

That said, a price cut sometime in the next fiscal year isn't an impossibility. $100 for 2DS could be a great number so long as Nintendo isn't losing a ton on the hardware. Sweet spot for 3DS pricing is a bit tougher to call; it needs to be a relative premium but not so expensive that it dissuades future purchases.

$79-$99 for the 2DS, $119-$149 for the 3DS. New Mario, Kirby, and Smash Bros. if these things happen by Christmas '14 they'll have another monster year. The $149 price point is already being tested this week.

 

[kswiston]

Wait what? 3DS just got its biggest western release (Pokemon) this year along with a 99SKU launch. How is next year going to exceed this year? I see a decline.

Ya, I don't see how 2014 will be any bigger than this year. What is announced other than Smash for 3DS? 2013 had Pokemon, Animal Crossing, and Zelda, plus a handful of Nintendo's smaller properties. Mario and Mario Kart came out in 2011/2013. Other than sequels (which never move as much hardware), what's left?

$79-$99 for the 2DS, $119-$149 for the 3DS. New Mario, Kirby, and Smash Bros. if these things happen by Christmas '14 they'll have another monster year. The $149 price point is already being tested this week.

Might as well just say that Nintendo will give the systems away for free next year. Outside of some isolated sales, most of those price points are never happening in 2014. Maybe $149 for the regular 3DS. Also, at this point, more Mario is not moving a significant number of systems. Mario 2D, 3D, and Kart are already on there. Smash is the only thing that has the potential to shift units, and that will largely depend on whether the 3DS version is even worth bothering with.

 

[Basileus777]

Unless a price drop is in the cards, I tend to agree. 2013 was a big year for first-party software-- which is the driving force for the 2/3DS family-- and I'm not sure what Nintendo can realistically do for an encore... though if Smash Bros. arrives as expected, it can only help.

I'm not sure how much Smash Bros will matter on the 3DS. Multiplayer focused games aren't big on handhelds in the west, nor are fighting games.

 

[Wolves Evolve]

$79-$99 for the 2DS, $119-$149 for the 3DS. New Mario, Kirby, and Smash Bros. if these things happen by Christmas '14 they'll have another monster year. The $149 price point is already being tested this week.

What Mario is coming next year?
Kirby is not a system seller.
Who doesn't have a 3DS that would be interested in Smash?

I'm not disagreeing that 3DS could have a good 2014, but I don't think it's these names that are going to do it.

 

[Captain Smoker]

Wait what? 3DS just got its biggest western release (Pokemon) this year along with a 99SKU launch. How is next year going to exceed this year? I see a decline.

It was a one-day-deal at one retailer, this won't set the world on fire, despite the price.

Don't know why this is posted so often, it's not the standard-price.

 

[Magicpaint]

I'm not sure how much Smash Bros will matter on the 3DS. Multiplayer focused games aren't big on handhelds in the west, nor are fighting games.

Mario Kart isn't big on handhelds? Mario Party DS sold millions too (granted it's flopping on 3DS so far, lol).

 

[kswiston]

It was a one-day-deal at one retailer, this won't set the world on fire, despite the price.

Don't know why this is posted so often, it's not the standard-price.

Given the meager bump that the 3DS got this November over Nov 2012, I don't think $99 for the 2DS would make that much of a difference next year anyhow. It's not 2001 where >$100 for a handheld is considered expensive.

 

[Mpl90]

Mario Kart isn't big on handhelds? Mario Party DS sold millions too (granted it's flopping on 3DS so far, lol).

Now that I think about it, do we have Mario Party DS's debut number, complete with amount of days tracked? Yeah, MP:IT didn't debut too hotly, but it saw only 9 days tracked, and it's a kind of title that should sell over time.

However, it's undeniable that not only it should have had online multiplayer, but also that it should be $34.99, not $39.99, It's strange, there are times Nintendo understand how prices are important for some kind of titles(Animal Crossing, LEGO, next Layton - just 29.99), and others where it doesn't (Mario Party itself).

 

[mrpeabody]

Admittedly Mario may have slower releases than stuff like COD, Assassin's Creed or Halo or whatever, but there's still been just as many if not more of them, and I think it's starting to take its toll.

This is a misconception about Mario platformers, that they come out infrequently. It only looks that way because they release on two platforms.

NSMB - 2006
SM Galaxy - 2007
NSMB Wii - 2009
SM Galaxy 2 - 2010
SM 3D Land - 2011
NSMB U - 2012
NSMB 2 - 2012
SM 3D World - 2013

There's been a new Mario platformer seven years out of the last eight. It's an annual series.

That doesn't include the 25 additional Mario-headline games in other genres in the same time period. Nothing is surprising about "Mario fatigue" except how long it took to set in.

 

[kswiston]

This is a misconception about Mario platformers, that they come out infrequently. It only looks that way because they release on two platforms.

NSMB - 2006
SM Galaxy - 2007
NSMB Wii - 2009
SM Galaxy 2 - 2010
SM 3D Land - 2011
NSMB U - 2012
NSMB 2 - 2012
SM 3D World - 2013

There's been a new Mario platformer seven years out of the last eight. It's an annual series.

That doesn't include the 25 additional Mario-headline games in other genres in the same time period. Nothing is surprising about "Mario fatigue" except how long it took to set in.

Prior to NSMB, new Mario platformers were actually rare. We got a bunch of handheld remakes of the 8bit/16bit games, but it was really only SM64 on the N64 and SMS on the Gamecube before New Super Mario Bros and Super Mario Galaxy came out.

We have now had 6 platforming games in the past 4 years.

 

[mrpeabody]

As well as the people who just recently bought the Wind Waker bundle, I'm hoping, but I worry that if 3D Mario's ceiling is around 250K then the ceiling for the more "effortful" titles such as X and Bayonetta 2 will be much lower and the business incentive for making those games would be lessened.

Bayo 2 - 75k
X - 30k, unless they get smart and move it to PS4/Xbone

 

[BruceLeeRoy]

If Titanfall is another Halo success, you can bet the house that Microsoft will tie it up.

This is a late reply but its not possible for MS to pay EA enough money at that point to keep it on one platform. Thats incredibly unrealistic.

 

[theprodigy]

Bayo 2 - 75k
X - 30k, unless they get smart and move it to PS4/Xbone

not sure if serious....

 

[Magicpaint]

Now that I think about it, do we have Mario Party DS's debut number, complete with amount of days tracked? Yeah, MP:IT didn't debut too hotly, but it saw only 9 days tracked, and it's a kind of title that should sell over time.

However, it's undeniable that not only it should have had online multiplayer, but also that it should be $34.99, not $39.99, It's strange, there are times Nintendo understand how prices are important for some kind of titles(Animal Crossing, LEGO, next Layton - just 29.99), and others where it doesn't (Mario Party itself).

Yeah I'm not too sure on Mario Party DS but I wouldn't be surprised if it opened significantly better. But yes, the handling of Island Tour was terrible, just like it was with Mario Tennis Open. I really hope they don't screw up Mario Golf.

 

[mrpeabody]

Wait what? 3DS just got its biggest western release (Pokemon) this year along with a 99SKU launch. How is next year going to exceed this year? I see a decline.

Ya, I don't see how 2014 will be any bigger than this year. What is announced other than Smash for 3DS? 2013 had Pokemon, Animal Crossing, and Zelda, plus a handful of Nintendo's smaller properties. Mario and Mario Kart came out in 2011/2013. Other than sequels (which never move as much hardware), what's left?

Pokemon, Animal Crossing (NA), Zelda, and the 2DS all fall into FY2014.

 

[symmetrical]

Top 10 NPD threads by amount of posts:

1) November 2013 - 5,084 posts, 531,189 views
2) January 2013 - 4,596 posts, 365,025 views
3) November 2010 - 3,563 posts, 231,795 views
4) April 2008 - 3,517 posts, 263,584 views
5) November 2008 - 3,450 posts, 327,342 views
6) October 2008 - 3,262 posts, 224,970 views
7) February 2013 - 3,024 posts, 270,134 views
8) December 2008 - 2,899 posts, 253,713 views
9) April 2007 - 2,839 posts, 204,620 views
10) June 2009 - 2,803 posts, 194,635 views

November NPD’s: #Thisthread was the fastest posting thread in Neogaf last month - averaging 211 posts per hour

Over 530,000 views in "November NPD”
Over 90,000 keyboard strokes – equal to 600 novels written
Over 186 defending MS in “Jack Tretton thread”
Over 150 Joel Banderas .gifs posted

“We are seeing incredible usage from our engaged fans who have posted in Neogaf with more than 50 million hours spent on arguing games and entertainment.”

 

[Gardex]

Bayo 2 - 75k
X - 30k, unless they get smart and move it to PS4/Xbone

I'm sure Nintendo will do just that

 

[Mpl90]

Given the meager bump that the 3DS got this November over Nov 2012, I don't think $99 for the 2DS would make that much of a difference next year anyhow. It's not 2001 where >$100 for a handheld is considered expensive.

If next year 2DS goes to $99.99 costantly, it would be costantly under the so-called "impulse price limit". And, above all, it could allow retailers to sell it at $79.99 / $99.99 with a game bundled during BG / Holidays.

I feel next year, or beginning of 2015, we'll see another 3DS revision, but this time not in order to enlarge the audience reachable, but to improve sales overall. I mean, we could see the "3DSi", or call it whatever you want: a brand new base model, with some new features, sold at around current OG 3DS price, while the first model sees its price reduced (169.99-->149.99)

 

[mrpeabody]

I'm sure Nintendo will do just that

Haha, I guess not. Would shock me if they bother to market it though.

 

[kswiston]

Pokemon, Animal Crossing (NA), Zelda, and the 2DS all fall into FY2014.

I see now that he could have been talking about FY2014, and not calendar year 2014. Still, with the big drop in DS software FY2014 will suffer, the total software sales could be down again. Looks like 3DS software sales will have to increase by 60% or so to avoid that. I admit that we could see an increase with FY2014 though, as this year had some strong sellers.

CY2014 vs CY2013 looks to be another matter.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

November NPD’s: #Thisthread was the fastest posting thread in Neogaf last month - averaging 211 posts per hour

Over 530,000 views in "November NPD”
Over 90,000 keyboard strokes – equal to 600 novels written
Over 186 defending MS in “Jack Tretton thread”
Over 150 Joel Banderas .gifs posted

“We are seeing incredible usage from our engaged fans who have posted in Neogaf with more than 50 million hours spent on arguing games and entertainment.”

I lol'd.

 

[HowardRoark]

Roughly 2. I'll find a link to a reputable poster's post... edit: here you go http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=93553125&postcount=4142

I wonder how much the Amazon buy 2 get 1 deal affected this? I know I wouldn't have bought 3 launch games if not for this.

 

[chadboban]

Bayo 2 - 75k
X - 30k, unless they get smart and move it to PS4/Xbone

This is a joke right?

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

This is a late reply but its not possible for MS to pay EA enough money at that point to keep it on one platform. Thats incredibly unrealistic.

It won't matter at that point. If Titanfall is a huge success on Xbox, the sequels will be bigger on Xbox. Like Mass Effect, Rainbow Six, Splinter Cell, Bioshock, Elder's Scrolls, etc.

 

[kswiston]

If next year 2DS goes to $99.99 costantly, it would be costantly under the so-called "impulse price limit". And, above all, it could allow retailers to sell it at $79.99 / $99.99 with a game bundled during BG / Holidays.

I feel next year, or beginning of 2015, we'll see another 3DS revision, but this time not in order to enlarge the audience reachable, but to improve sales overall. I mean, we could see the "3DSi", or call it whatever you want: a brand new base model, with some new features, sold at around current OG 3DS price, while the first model sees its price reduced (169.99-->149.99)

How much of a difference did $99 make to the PS2? I'm pretty sure the DS was already the best selling piece of gaming hardware of all time in the US before its price was $99.

The entire previous generation proved that people don't wait for the $99 price tag before buying their gaming systems as they did in the 90s. Between the PSP, DS, 360, PS3, and Wii, over 175M units of hardware was sold in just the United States this past generation, with almost all of it priced over $99.

Sure, the 3DS is younger than the DS and PS2 were when they hit the $99 price point, but if people don't want the system at $130, they probably won't want it at $100. I think the fact that the 3DS sold fewer units this November than it did in Nov 2011 sort of shows that price isn't the major issue holding back sales.

 

[Zachi]

November NPD’s: #Thisthread was the fastest posting thread in Neogaf last month - averaging 211 posts per hour

Over 530,000 views in "November NPD”
Over 90,000 keyboard strokes – equal to 600 novels written
Over 186 defending MS in “Jack Tretton thread”
Over 150 Joel Banderas .gifs posted

“We are seeing incredible usage from our engaged fans who have posted in Neogaf with more than 50 million hours spent on arguing games and entertainment.”

Hahahaha.....awesome Math Major Nelson style post

 

[kswiston]

It won't matter at that point. If Titanfall is a huge success on Xbox, the sequels will be bigger on Xbox. Like Mass Effect, Rainbow Six, Splinter Cell, Bioshock, Elder's Scrolls, etc.

With the 360, some of that is compounded by the fact that the system had double or near double the install base of the PS3 in the US for the entire generation. If PS4 ends up being the market leader, I'm sure Titanfall originating on the XB1 will skew the sales ratio in MS' favour, but I don't think well will see the 4 to 1 sales split that we saw for some PS360 multiplats earlier this generation.

Even if the ratio for Titanfall 2 ends up at 2 to 1 in favour of the XB1 version, I doubt EA is going to give up a third of their potential sales for a moneyhat.

 

[Manmademan]

How much of a difference did $99 make to the PS2? I'm pretty sure the DS was already the best selling piece of gaming hardware of all time in the US before its price was $99.

The entire previous generation proved that people don't wait for the $99 price tag before buying their gaming systems as they did in the 90s. Between the PSP, DS, 360, PS3, and Wii, over 175M units of hardware was sold in just the United States this past generation, with almost all of it priced over $99.

Sure, the 3DS is younger than the DS and PS2 were when they hit the $99 price point, but if people don't want the system at $130, they probably won't want it at $100. I think the fact that the 3DS sold fewer units this November than it did in Nov 2011 sort of shows that price isn't the major issue holding back sales.

I agree. $99 isn't the big selling point it used to be.

You can also blame the iphone/ipad for moving the goalposts on commodity pricing for electronics. $500 for an entertainment device would have been unthinkable in the PS1 era, now it's commonplace.

$199 and below seems to be the "impulse buy" category. $99 and under is for junk tablets at CVS

 

[Mpl90]

Yeah I'm not too sure on Mario Party DS but I wouldn't be surprised if it opened significantly better. But yes, the handling of Island Tour was terrible, just like it was with Mario Tennis Open. I really hope they don't screw up Mario Golf.

I'm reading through all November 2007 NPD thread, and still I can't find how much Mario Party DS sold in its first month. Anyone here who knows the truth? XD

EDIT: Found something - How much it sold in December

http://neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=9366608&postcount=355

Mario Party DS (DS) - 385,700

Mmmh...yeeeah, not gonna happen with Mario Party: Island Tour.

 

[BruceLeeRoy]

It won't matter at that point. If Titanfall is a huge success on Xbox, the sequels will be bigger on Xbox. Like Mass Effect, Rainbow Six, Splinter Cell, Bioshock, Elder's Scrolls, etc.

A huge reason for the games had larger success on 360 was due to install base and the 360's early lead. That doesn't matter anymore