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[Zen]

Isn't the same thing seemingly happening with Wii U? Maybe it's just because there are so many kickstarter projects out there, but I've seen quite a few have a Wii U tier, and actualyl hit that goal. A lot of those have Vita, or PS3/360 as well.

I haven't noticed it as much, but it makes sense that hardcore fans on niche platforms would really really like to play games on them!

Spoiler

I'm a hardcore Vita fan and I HAVE kick-started games a little extra in hopes of it reaching the Vita goal

 

[GitarooMan]

Do we know roughly how close the 360 is to passing the Wii in the US? Is it going to happen?

 

[ZSaberLink]

Actually here's a question for folks about the 3DS's performance. Do you think that the 3DS's strong performance in October hurt its sales in November? The fact is that the 3DS sold about 200k more than usual in October (452k vs. the usual 250k in '11 and '12), so for Oct/Nov together, 2013 is at least their best year, just not by as much as folks hoped I guess.

Considering the 3DS sold 1.6m in December 2011 and 1.25m in December 2012, how much do we expect for this December? The Pokemon/2DS bundle was released in December at the very least. Anything else?

I'd say it barely tops 2011's December, because from what I understand, this year's Black Friday shopping was actually fairly tame compared to usual. Of course, the console launches were great, but I think they did that despite the lack of enthusiasm for Black Friday.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Do we know roughly how close the 360 is to passing the Wii in the US? Is it going to happen?

I believe the numbers are around 41M LTD in the US for the Wii and 40M for the X360 in the US so it should pass Wii numbers sometime next year depending. Dark Souls II and Titanfall might help

 

[Bsigg12]

Do we know roughly how close the 360 is to passing the Wii in the US? Is it going to happen?

Earlier in the thread someone made a chart that showed the 360 about 600k away from matching the Wii. It should happen over the next 3 months, easily.

 

[SenjutsuSage]

Is he claiming to actually know how many units Sony and MS are producing and shipping to each region? Because I find that hard to believe.

Same. He's obviously just guessing based on various bits and pieces of information. From everything we've been seeing and hearing, and also based on how hard it has been to locate a PS4, it wouldn't be a stretch at all if the Xbox One somehow managed to outsell the PS4 in December, but, of course, what we think may be happening, and what may actually be taking place are two entirely different things altogether. I'm just happy to see each platform off to a great start. Sucks we still don't have a specific number for the PS4 though.

 

[Aquamarine]

Do we know roughly how close the 360 is to passing the Wii in the US? Is it going to happen?

It's getting very close. 360 has been repeatedly outselling Wii 3:1 or greater...this month was huge with 360 outselling Wii relatively close to 8:1.

But it makes sense...the last time that Wii sales exceeded 360 monthly sales was December 2010, and.the last time it was outselling 360 on a regular basis was way back in 2009.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Same. He's obviously just guessing based on various bits and pieces of information. From everything we've been seeing and hearing, and also based on how hard it has been to locate a PS4, it wouldn't be a stretch at all if the Xbox One somehow managed to outsell the PS4 in December, but, of course, what we think may be happening, and what may actually be taking place are two entirely different things altogether. I'm just happy to see each platform off to a great start. Sucks we still don't have a specific number for the PS4 though.

Well it's obvious to anyone who looks at it objectively that it's purely a supply problem. Xbox One, PS4 sell what they can supply

Hence the obvious choice for DEC NPD?

Spoiler

Wii U, there are plenty of units in stores just lying there motionless :'(

 

[Aquamarine]

Never mind.

 

[mckmas8808]

Have Sony spread themselves too thin in order to keep up with the high demand?

PS4 available in 48 countries from today:

A global company would rather sell their merchandise globally and not just in 2 countries. I don't see what the problem is here.

 

[Steel]

Overall I didn't do very well at all...I was over-optimistic every single time and over-shot multiple sales figures by 100K. But then again, GAF predictions this month were all over the place, so relatively speaking I don't think I did that poorly.

Yeah. Not even going to look for my prediction, but yeah, I'd say your predictions were spot on in comparison. Only thing I got close was Vita sales (60k prediction). Waaaay low-balled everything else(Other than next-gen consoles).

 

[Kenka]

My prediction:

You did excellently (is that a word ?).

 

[John Harker]

Is that tie ratio?

Microsoft said the XBO tie ratio is 2.1 including digital. (They were using their own estimates but) if NPD is getting ~2, then download purchases are ~0.1 per system or ~5%.

Although, were there XBO bundles SKU? That would invalidate (even more) my guess.

The PS2 tie-ratio was 1.9, so it seems the PS4 is just barely above (without including downloads).

you're right, sorry, I wasn't clear. I WAS making a comment on attach rates being better than I was afraid (like in the 25-36% range, and more spread out than in the past (i.e. CoD like having 70% back in the day only), and then also, I was mentioning tie ratio, and that was my 2 comment.

If they said 2.1 including digital, then yea that would make sense.
Digital is not nearly as high yet as you guys perceive it to be. It's GROWTH RATE is high, but it's still not a major factor. probably balances out roughly around 10% once the eco system is stable, barring a few titles here or there.

 

[Square2015]

Do we know roughly how close the 360 is to passing the Wii in the US? Is it going to happen?

There's exactly a one million gap between the two, it'll happen by Christmas Eve likely:
From data I've amassed:

ALL-TIME HW SALES IN USA (sold not shipped):

1. DS 53.4m
2. PS2 46.1m
3. Wii 41.4m
4. X360 40.4m
5. GBA 34.9m
6. PSX 30.2m
7. NES ~29m
8. PS3 25.1m
9. GB/P 25m
10. 2600 20m
11. PSP 19.8m
12. SNES 18m?
13. GEN 18m?
14. N64 17.9m
15. GBC 17.3m
16. XB 13.8m
17. GC 11.7m
18. 3DS 10.4m

As insane as this is we Still can't get definits for SNES & GEN (US).

 

[GitarooMan]

There's exactly a one million gap between the two, it'll happen by Christmas Eve likely:
From data I've amassed:


As insane as this is we Still can't get definits for SNES & GEN (US).

Thanks for the info (along with everyone else). Crazy how much the wind blew out of the Wii's sales starting in 2010. New system should have been out in 2011, not 2012.

 

[airmangataosenai]

My prediction:
3DS - 1,150,000 (113% YOY)

Reality:
Nearly 770,000


My prediction:
Wii U - 276,000

Reality:
222K < Wii U < 224K


My prediction:
PS4 - 1,233,000

Reality:
1137K < PS4 < 1138K


My prediction:
Xbox One - 1,010,000

Reality:
XBO - 909,132


My prediction:
PS3 - 501,000 (-34% YOY)

Reality:
424K < PS3 < 425K


My prediction:
360 - 653,000 (-48% YOY)

Reality:
647K < 360 < 648K


My prediction:
PSV - 132,000

Reality:
70K < PSV < 75K (according to Creamsugar)


Overall I didn't do very well at all...I was over-optimistic every single time and over-shot multiple sales figures by 100K. But then again, GAF predictions this month were all over the place, so relatively speaking I don't think I did that poorly.

When will the standings for the prediction thread be posted? How long does it normally take?

 

[mckmas8808]

So XB1 is likely to take no.1 spot for Dec NPD. Will the software sales follow or will they still lead on PS4 as far as next gen systems go?

Why is everyone saying this? Didn't Zomgbbq and Mort both say that Sony is literally putting PS4s on airplanes to fix the lack of hardware on shelves for December?

 

[Jack Torrance]

Thanks for the info (along with everyone else). Crazy how much the wind blew out of the Wii's sales starting in 2010. New system should have been out in 2011, not 2012.

nintendo succeeded in their ambition of reaching the casual gamer - the majority which was perfectly satisifed with the "Wii Sports" that came with it and didn't really care about other games.

I like the Wii U - though I don't think even Nintendo even really know what it's full potential is, and by the time they do it may be too late, if it's not already

 

[SwiftDeath]

Why is everyone saying this? Didn't Zomgbbq and Mort both say that Sony is literally putting PS4s on airplanes to fix the lack of hardware on shelves for December?

Mort said that with PS4's Asia launch, 500K units are being allocated to Asia hence less to send to the US

Sony has 48 countries to stock and even though US is clearly top priority overall for them and all the on-paper launches they have for many countries, MS is seriously pushing some XB1 units to the US

Honestly I can see it going either way but it is more likely that MS take DEC NPD

Curious if they gain LTD in the US over PS4 though. A 200K lead isn't that hard to beat in December of all months

Sony will win in WW sales at all points this gen though. That much should be obvious unless some large shifts happen within the Xbox Division

 

[mckmas8808]

Mort said that with PS4's Asia launch, 500K units are being allocated to Asia hence less to send to the US

Sony has 48 countries to stock and even though US is clearly top priority overall for them and all the on-paper launches they have for many countries, MS is seriously pushing some XB1 units to the US

Honestly I can see it going either way but it is more likely that MS take DEC NPD

Curious if they gain LTD in the US over PS4 though. A 200K lead isn't that hard to beat in December of all months

Sony will win in WW sales at all points this gen though. That much should be obvious unless some large shifts happen within the Xbox Division

I think you missed the part where Zomgbbq stated that lots of shipments that were previously going out on boats are now being put on planes in order to get them shipped to the EU and America.

 

[SwiftDeath]

I think you missed the part where Zomgbbq stated that lots of shipments that were previously going out on boats are now being put on planes in order to get them shipped to the EU and America.

Perhaps? Was that post in this thread?

But it matters less how fast you get stock to places, more how much stock exists

If 90% of all XB1 stock goes towards the US for December at the same shipping speed as Sony and sony only sends 50% of their stock to the US, under the assumption that they have the same production ability and that all stock is sold, MS will win

There are certainly a lot of assumptions and anything can happen. I just think it's more likely XB1 sells more in Dec

 

[theprodigy]

ALL-TIME HW SALES IN USA (sold not shipped):
PS2 46.1m
Wii 41.4m
X360 40.4m

mmm
true race (or maybe climb is more appropriate) begins in 2014

 

[SwiftDeath]

mmm
true race (or maybe climb is more appropriate) begins in 2014

Highly doubt X360 is going to sell 6 million more units in the US but it should pass Wii without issue

 

[jcm]

I made a mistake on my earlier Gen Over Gen post. I was using NDS and PSP numbers from 2006 instead of 2007. Here are the correct numbers:

Year Over Year                          
            2013      2012      % Change
XB1          909                
360          647      1260       -48.65%
PS4         1138            
PS3          424       760       -44.21%
WIU          220       425       -48.24%
WII           82       420       -80.48%
3DS          770       540        42.59%
NDS                    370       
PSV           72       220       -67.05%
PSP            0         0  
                                    
Family                          
MSFT        1556      1260        23.49%
SONY        1634       980        66.79%
NINT        1072      1755       -38.92%
                                    
HAND         842      1130       -25.44%
CONSOLE     3420      2865        19.37%
                                    
Gen over Gen                              
Console     2013      2006      % Change
360                    511       
PS2                    664       
WII                    476       
PS3                    197       
TOTAL       3420     1,848        85.06%
                                    
Handheld    2013      2007      % Change
NDS                   1530       
PSP                    567       
GBA                            
Total      842.5      2097       -59.85%

I apologize for the error. As penance, I have compiled a YTD comparison of 3DS this year and PSP in 2007. It's an exciting race:

        3DS 2013   PSP 2007  NDS 2007
January      145        211       239
February     189        176       485
March        230        180       509
April        113        183       471
May          114        221       423
June         225        290       561
July         150        214       405
August       130        151       383
September    220        285       496
October      452        286       458
November     770        567      1530
YTD         2738       2764      5960

December               1060      2470
            2738       3824      8430

PSP sold 1060 in December 2007, so 3DS needs 1087 to win the year.

 

[Manmademan]

And yet despite the massive lead in the US last gen, PS3 will outsell the 360 WW. The US is very important, but a massive focus there is limiting.

Edit: This question has been asked before, but once again why are stores going to continue to stock Vita. If most of the sales are digital, that doesn't help retailers at all.

cards are apparently high margin items.

 

[Metallix87]

Highly doubt X360 is going to sell 6 million more units in the US but it should pass Wii without issue

The system is still $200. Imagine how it will sell when it goes down to $100. It should boom enough to make it past PS2 within a year or so, methinks. Maybe two.

 

[SwiftDeath]

The system is still $200. Imagine how it will sell when it goes down to $100. It should boom enough to make it past PS2 within a year or so, methinks. Maybe two.

Hmm that's an interesting point

I suppose if it keeps up the major 3rd party support it is possible

 

[ultratruman]

I wonder if at least some of the Wii audience would've carried over if the Wii U had launched in 2010 instead.

 

[AColdDay]

I wonder if at least some of the Wii audience would've carried over if the Wii U had launched in 2010 instead.

I do think timing would have made some difference. I think this generation dragged on too long for everyone involved and no one should have moved quicker than Nintendo. I totally think the world was ready for a Wii HD in 2010. Pachter was saying the same thing around that time (he was actually predicting it), and it was one thing I totally agreed with him about.

 

[Asd202]

mmm
true race (or maybe climb is more appropriate) begins in 2014

Nah 360 won't top PS2 but it wil top the Wii.

 

[jvm]

When will the standings for the prediction thread be posted? How long does it normally take?

donny2112 often waits to see if official data is released so that the prediction scores can be shown explicitly, instead of just a ranking.

 

[ultratruman]

I do think timing would have made some difference. I think this generation dragged on too long for everyone involved and no one should have moved quicker than Nintendo. I totally think the world was ready for a Wii HD in 2010. Pachter was saying the same thing around that time (he was actually predicting it), and it was one thing I totally agreed with him about.

At least Sony and Microsoft had the excuse of releasing the first HD consoles. Was the management at Nintendo really so complacent during the Wii and DS years?

Waiting until 2012, 2 years after Wii sales had collapsed, seems so daft and leans further credence to the idea that Nintendo did not understand the nature of the Wii's success at all.

 

[Finalizer]

The system is still $200. Imagine how it will sell when it goes down to $100. It should boom enough to make it past PS2 within a year or so, methinks. Maybe two.

Pretty sure it was easy enough to find $99 360s during BF. I'd guess getting it down to that price as standard would help, but perhaps not by as much as thought.

What's the 360's current YTD?

 

[shinra-bansho]

The system is still $200. Imagine how it will sell when it goes down to $100. It should boom enough to make it past PS2 within a year or so, methinks. Maybe two.

I doubt they'll get it down to a profitable $99.

 

[jvm]

1. DS 53.4m I have this slightly higher by about 0.2-0.3m
2. PS2 46.1m
3. Wii 41.4m
4. X360 40.4m
5. GBA 34.9m I have this significantly higher.
6. PSX 30.2m I have this slightly higher by about 0.2-0.3m
7. NES ~29m
8. PS3 25.1m I have this slightly higher by about 0.2-0.3m
9. GB/P 25m
10. 2600 20m
11. PSP 19.8m Over 20mm now, I think.
12. SNES 18m?
13. GEN 18m?
14. N64 17.9m Close enough, but I'm higher.
15. GBC 17.3m
16. XB 13.8m I have this significantly higher.
17. GC 11.7m Close enough, but I'm higher.
18. 3DS 10.4m Within rounding error, but I'm a tiny bit higher.

Just a few comments.

 

[airmangataosenai]

The system is still $200. Imagine how it will sell when it goes down to $100. It should boom enough to make it past PS2 within a year or so, methinks. Maybe two.

If Microsoft feels 360 is cutting into One sales down the line they won't continue to support it for that long. I don't think they have to worry about that though, demand for last-gen is falling quickly. I wouldn't expect the 360 to be more of a factor next year than the NDS was in 2012, for a point of reference.

 

[jvm]

If Microsoft feels 360 is cutting into One sales down the line they won't continue to support it for that long. I don't think they have to worry about that though, demand for last-gen is falling quickly. I wouldn't expect the 360 to be more of a factor next year than the NDS was in 2012, for a point of reference.

This is correct. The final third-party Xbox 360 games will come out in 2015, and final first-party in 2014.

 

[SwiftDeath]

donny2112 often waits to see if official data is released so that the prediction scores can be shown explicitly, instead of just a ranking.

they are up now. 1st Course won

 

[entremet]

No Vita numbers?

 

[SwiftDeath]

No Vita numbers?

Not officially but around ~70K -> 73K

 

[jvm]

they are up now. 1st Course won

For the lazy (i.e. me) here is the official prediction results post by donny2112:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=93608291&postcount=543

 

[hodayathink]

The system is still $200. Imagine how it will sell when it goes down to $100. It should boom enough to make it past PS2 within a year or so, methinks. Maybe two.

Except that I don't think the 360 (or the PS3) is ever going to make it to $100 as a regular price. $150 maybe, but $100 will continue to basically be a Black Friday/clear-out price.

 

[Aquamarine]

I made a mistake on my earlier Gen Over Gen post. I was using NDS and PSP numbers from 2006 instead of 2007. Here are the correct numbers:

Year Over Year                          
            2013      2012      % Change
XB1          909                
360          647      1260       -48.65%
PS4         1138            
PS3          424       760       -44.21%
WIU          220       425       -48.24%
[B]WII           70[/B]       420       [B]-83.33%[/B]
3DS          770       540        42.59%
NDS                    370       
PSV           72       220       -67.05%
PSP            0         0  
                                    
Family                          
MSFT        1556      1260        23.49%
SONY        1634       980        66.79%
NINT        1060      1755       -39.60%
                                    
HAND         842      1130       -25.44%
CONSOLE     3408      2865        18.95%
                                    
Gen over Gen                              
Console     2013      2006      % Change
360                    511       
PS2                    664       
WII                    476       
PS3                    197       
TOTAL       3408     1,848        84.42%
                                    
Handheld    2013      2007      % Change
NDS                   1530       
PSP                    567       
GBA                            
Total      842.5      2097       -59.85%

Wii sales should be a bit higher.

You have Wii sales as 70K, when they should be more like 80K < Wii < 85K.

 

[MilkBeard]

Wow I just saw the WiiU number in an IGN article. So Pachter wasn't that far off this time.

 

[Roshin]

Actually, instead of pulling out of the console business, Nintendo should just keep selling the Wii U for like the next 10 years as some sort of cheap video game alternative to all the new iterations of future PS and Xboxs. Eventually, it should get down to a 79$ price point.

Then after that they can reinvent themselves and release something new.

Sell each console at a loss, develop software, and then send it out to die.

Brilliant strategy.

 

[orion434]

PS4 sold 1 million in 24 hours... Xbox One didn't sell that in 8 days, so how exactly was it the "fastest selling"?

 

[SwiftDeath]

Sell each console at a loss, develop software, and then send it out to die.

Brilliant strategy.

You mean the original PS3 strategy?

 

[Penguins&PolarBears]

There's exactly a one million gap between the two, it'll happen by Christmas Eve likely:
From data I've amassed:

ALL-TIME HW SALES IN USA (sold not shipped):

1. DS 53.4m
2. PS2 46.1m
3. Wii 41.4m
4. X360 40.4m
5. GBA 34.9m
6. PSX 30.2m
7. NES ~29m
8. PS3 25.1m
9. GB/P 25m
10. 2600 20m
11. PSP 19.8m
12. SNES 18m?
13. GEN 18m?
14. N64 17.9m
15. GBC 17.3m
16. XB 13.8m
17. GC 11.7m
18. 3DS 10.4m

As insane as this is we Still can't get definits for SNES & GEN (US).

Oh wow, never realized that 360 was that close to becoming the best selling console in US history. Wonder if they can do another 6 million here? They still have a lot of room for price drops.

 

[Aquamarine]

PS4 sold 1 million in 24 hours... Xbox One didn't sell that in 8 days, so how exactly was it the "fastest selling"?

NPD reporting period: November 3rd - November 30th (28 days)

Xbox One (November 2013):
November 22nd - November 30th: 9 days of tracking
Sales: 909,132

PS4 (November 2013):
November 15th - November 30th: 16 days of tracking
Sales: 1,138,000


Therefore:

909,132 / 9 = 101,014 Xbox One consoles sold per day on average
1,138,000 / 16 = 71,125 PS4 consoles sold per day on average

It's a misleading statement that gives you the false impression Xbox One sold better.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Btw, is there any chance we'll get any more numbers from cream for this NPD?