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[Dr. Feel Good]

There was a time when sales interested me here. I remember when we did sales age estimates that go back to earlier than donny's archive. The Xbox vs. Gamecube days were pretty epic. The first year or so of Wii domination was entertaining too.

I stopped caring so much about how other games sell once I got in to the industry (almost 9 years now). The only game sales I really care about are the ones my company makes. Other than that, I just want to play (and analyze) other games.

Also - OT - crushing you in MK8 is oddly satisfying, considering you're one of those NeoGAF names I've known for ages.

Always had fun with you and nenned back on N-Philes forums with Sales Age threads.

 

[Y2Kev]

I think people tend to conflate and confuse operating at a positive margin with making a return on investment, and ignore the time value of money. It's also difficult to isolate Nintendo's handheld and home console operating income.

Regardless, taking positive operating income in isolation as a metric for a respectable third place system is too simplistic, particularly without even qualifying the degree of profitability. Generating a dollar of profit? Generating $1M of profit? Generating $100M of profit?

You are really going third dimension here, but I suspect that neither console business (either Sony or Microsoft) would return cash monays above their hurdle rates/WACCs. I don't even understand why anyone is in this business. Sony's funding cost is probably pretty high these days, and Microsoft just has a generally high hurdle rate for investments in general given their overall portfolio. I guess they're OK with throwing money into the toilet.

I don't have access to a Bloomberg terminal at home and I'm too lazy to log into FactSet but I can't imagine the Wii U would ever be a worthwhile endeavor for Nintendo. Even were it suddenly to become profitable, it would have significantly diluted the value of the company from an Economic Value Added perspective. The thing is a huge drag. Financially, it would be better for it to never have existed and that's true even if the thing ends up profitable. Of course, this has been felt via their stock price.

 

[Imru’ al-Qays]

You are really going third dimension here, but I suspect that neither console business (either Sony or Microsoft) would return cash monays above their hurdle rates/WACCs. I don't even understand why anyone is in this business. Sony's funding cost is probably pretty high these days, and Microsoft just has a generally high hurdle rate for investments in general given their overall portfolio. I guess they're OK with throwing money into the toilet.

Care to venture a guess as to why Sony remains in the business?

 

[Tomohawk]

Care to venture a guess as to why Sony remains in the business?

Control the living room.

 

[Shosai]

Care to venture a guess as to why Sony remains in the business?

Lots of assets. They've been selling their real estate and stocks for the past two years to maintain positive cashflow.

 

[Y2Kev]

Care to venture a guess as to why Sony remains in the business?

Everything they do is low margin these days and the company is going to die probably?

Lots of assets. They've been selling their real estate and stocks for the past two years to maintain positive cashflow.

I don't think that's really the question he was asking, but no analyst worth his salt gives a shit about "positive cash flow" in a general sense. Disposition of assets is an investing cash flow and not an operating cash flow. Analysts care about OCF and FCF.

I think sale and leaseback is a very common and efficient thing large companies do so I didn't find it peculiar.

 

[kswiston]

I was mainly talking about the bundle with that comment.


But in terms of Mario Kart 8 June sales...

It's pretty safe to assume that 2 days of sales (in May) tracking isn't an accurate representation of the total launch demand, especially considering its viral nature throughout the month.

I think there might be a possibility we will see a phenomenon similar to a November -> December uptick given these unique circumstances.

Maybe something similar to this:

Mario Kart Double Dash, November 2003: 500-550K
Mario Kart Double Dash, December 2003: 700-750K

Mario Kart DS, November 2005: 200-250K
Mario Kart DS, December 2005: 400-450K

Mario Kart 8, May 2014 (2 days): 350-400K
Mario Kart 8, June 2014 (35 days): 450-500K

I'm not saying this will be the case, especially since Mario Kart Wii declined MOM after its short launch month, but it's a possibility.

I don't think a summer game will match the upticks of those November games in their second month. December is by far the strongest retail month, especially for Nintendo. Mario Kart 8 will probably fair better than Mario Kart Wii (which drop from the high 700s to low 300s even though it only had 5 days of sales in May), but I don't think that it will increase by 10-25%.

 

[Nightengale]

Care to venture a guess as to why Sony remains in the business?

It's one of the few business avenues where they maintain the ability to deliver a legitimate differentiation strategy that isn't paper-thin.

And because Sony's core business has historically always had thin margins ( lol electronics ), SCE isn't necessarily seen as a black sheep because it's just delivering similar margins to the core business.

 

[Manmademan]

Care to venture a guess as to why Sony remains in the business?

Playstation as a brand is potentially more valuable than the console business is currently, especially if Nintendo or Microsoft ends up bowing out of the console space (nintendo to handhelds exclusively, microsoft to any other area of their business).

within ten years, we'll likely see "playstation" turning into more of a content platform like Netflix, with Sony making deals to run it on just about anything regardless of brand. They're already sitting on a phenomenal amount of content and IPs, have more internal studios than anyone else, and their own movie and music divisions.

Nintendo isn't set up to do this (and wouldn't, anyway), and MS doesn't have a ton of motivation.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Everything they do is low margin these days and the company is going to die probably?

Ah but only after The Last Guardian releases so let's say a tentative Fall 2037?

 

[Aquamarine]

I don't think a summer game will match the upticks of those November games in their second month. December is by far the strongest retail month, especially for Nintendo. Mario Kart 8 will probably fair better than Mario Kart Wii (which drop from the high 700s to low 300s even though it only had 5 days of sales in May), but I don't think that it will increase by 10-25%.

The issue with these predictions is that we're looking at an unprecedented situation for Mario Kart 8. The closest example we have to a few days of non-holiday sales is Mario Kart Wii, but even that isn't all that appropriate of an example because the Wii was a runaway hit with unique sales trends.

I believe that, in general, from looking at the USA sales history of Mario Kart and the strength of the IP, that 352K / 377K in two days represents a fraction of launch demand that we will see realised in the upcoming NPD month.



Applying an extremely loose extrapolation from conflating relative NPD sales to worldwide sales announcements:


"Mario Kart 8 has sold 1.2 million copies worldwide between May 30th - June 1st"
- Translates into 352K / 377K with NPD
(NPD's 377K represents approx. 31.4% of the stated worldwide number, but it's excluding June 1st)

"Mario Kart 8 has sold 1.2 million copies worldwide between May 30th - June 1st"
"Mario Kart 8 has sold 450,000 copies in the USA between May 30th - June 1st"
(NOA's internal figures represent approx. 37.5% of the stated worldwide number)






"Mario Kart 8 has sold 2 million copies worldwide between May 30th - June 27th"

NPD extrapolation:

(31.4% of 2 million copies is 628K)
(Or, an extrapolated 251K copies sold in 4-weeks in June, ~300K if extended to 5 weeks)
^ Lower than 377K May


NOA extrapolation:

(37.5% of 2 million copies is 750K)
(Or, an extrapolated 300K copies sold in 4-weeks in June, ~365K if extended to 5 weeks)
^ Lower than 450K May



I must stress that I was expecting bundle sales to be greater than last month. The possibility isn't all that great for June to surpass May...I'm just saying that it remains a possibility if the variables play heavily into Nintendo's favour because of the unique circumstances and the strength of the Mario Kart IP.

 

[AniHawk]

also keep in mind, that nintendo would most likely include digital sales in those numbers, which are hard to gauge without full pal region and the rest of north american retail numbers.

i think 250k-300k would be a really safe bet for june. hardware sales are tricky without knowing how many mk8 bundles were made to start with.

 

[Y2Kev]

Without being too cynical, what do you think Wii U digital sales really are?

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

Without being too cynical, what do you think Wii U digital sales really are?

I'd imagine better than most people assume; premium WiiU owners get a 10% rebate on all digital purchases, which is then used to buy more digital purchases, and the free game from the MK8 promotion is likely considered a digital sale in their tracking.

 

[Into]

What is going on at Amazon.us bestseller?

12: PS4, standalone, 399
51: PS4, Destiny Bundle, 449
59: Xbox One, Titanfall Bundle, 499
72: Xbox One, standalone, 399


I am more than aware that Amazon bestseller list is not some ultra accurate chart that tells what will happen with the next NPD, but it has been useful for several months and predicted sales well.

Why is the standalone XB1 so low? Are people buying them elsewhere? Walmart? Or is the interest just not there? The highest ive seen the standalone Xbox One since E3 has been around 40ish spot. Has the marketing campaign just not started, people do not yet know?

While there are no major games, and summer is not exactly a hot period for video games, one would still think the console would at least be up there with the PS4 and ride the Watch Dogs train with CoD and BF legs? And i know that the Titanfall bundle might offer more value but even that is not doing that great.

If that chart is anything to go by, then the NPD will be a real blood bath

 

[Two Words]

What is going on at Amazon.us bestseller?

12: PS4, standalone, 399
51: PS4, Destiny Bundle, 449
59: Xbox One, Titanfall Bundle, 499
72: Xbox One, standalone, 399


I am more than aware that Amazon bestseller list is not some ultra accurate chart that tells what will happen with the next NPD, but it has been useful for several months and predicted sales well.

Why is the standalone XB1 so low? Are people buying them elsewhere? Walmart? Or is the interest just not there? The highest ive seen the standalone Xbox One since E3 has been around 40ish spot. Has the marketing campaign just not started, people do not yet know?

While there are no major games, and summer is not exactly a hot period for video games, one would still think the console would at least be up there with the PS4 and ride the Watch Dogs train with CoD and BF legs? And i know that the Titanfall bundle might offer more value but even that is not doing that great.

If that chart is anything to go by, then the NPD will be a real blood bath

The biggest problem with this data is that we don't know the difference in sales between #12 and #72.

 

[AniHawk]

Without being too cynical, what do you think Wii U digital sales really are?

i'd wager they aren't much. but even if they're 5% of total sales, that's a good 20k out of 400k, which would alter predictions if you're trying to estimate for monthly console sales.

when reggie fils-aime was saying first weekend mk8 sales were 18% of total console sales, i don't know if he meant in the us. i think he did, given that he runs the american branch. if we go off that, then 432k games were sold through its first weekend. that's roughly 57k games max sold on that first sunday.

 

[Into]

The biggest problem with this data is that we don't know the difference in sales between #12 and #72.

True but we do not need hard numbers to see that the 399 standalone Xbox One is not doing well at all.

I expected it to be competitive with the PS4 in America, around 180-210k. We will know in due time, but this does not look good at all, unless people are buying them elsewhere

 

[Road]

Applying an extremely loose extrapolation from conflating relative NPD sales to worldwide sales announcements:

"Mario Kart 8 has sold 2 million copies worldwide between May 30th - June 27th"

NPD extrapolation:

(31.4% of 2 million copies is 628K)
(Or, an extrapolated 251K copies sold in 4-weeks in June, ~300K if extended to 5 weeks)
^ Lower than 377K May


NOA extrapolation:

(37.5% of 2 million copies is 750K)
(Or, an extrapolated 300K copies sold in 4-weeks in June, ~365K if extended to 5 weeks)
^ Lower than 450K May

So you're telling me MK8 may have sold more in its first 2 days than in the subsequent 28 or 35 days?

Who would've thought?

What is going on at Amazon.us bestseller?

12: PS4, standalone, 399
51: PS4, Destiny Bundle, 449
59: Xbox One, Titanfall Bundle, 499
72: Xbox One, standalone, 399

What is this? Hourly chart? More irrelevant than England in a World Cup.

Looking at the June charts, the standalone is still below the TF bundle, but just one place.

I would also expect the standalone to outsell the other options greatly, but as it's been said, this is just Amazon and, while it's good to give an idea, it's hardly the end all be all. Or maybe it's really just not doing that great overall. *shrugs*

 

[Into]

What is this? Hourly chart? More irrelevant than England in a World Cup.

Looking at the June charts, the standalone is still below the TF bundle, but just one place.

I would also expect the standalone to outsell the other options greatly, but as it's been said, this is just Amazon and, while it's good to give an idea, it's hardly the end all be all. Or maybe it's really just not doing that great overall. *shrugs*

Right, so looking at the June month:

8. PS4, standalone
20. PS4, Destiny bundle
45. XB1, Titanfall bundle
46. XB1, standalone

Surely we expected the price drop to have a better effect than this? When it was announced there was a sense that it would outsell the PS4 at least in June, where it will have most of the month to see the new SKU work its muscles in addition to E3 announcements to hype the enthusiast crowd.

I suppose we can only have that discussion when the numbers come out, no need to discuss mere Amazon charts, i was just surprised how it was so low.

 

[Lord Malachite]

First post--Sony only gamer. But in all fairness to MS, there isn't a whole lot of exciting stuff happening on the Xbox One immediately. The new SKU will undoubtedly boost sales of the console, but we may not see a significant surge until the Fall & Holiday season. There is relevant exclusive content coming to Microsoft's new box, but until it actually materializes on store shelves, we may just be seeing a case where consumers are still playing a wait and see game.

With the new SKU for the Xbox, along with the MK8 surge on Wii U, June's numbers could make for a very interesting NPD.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

Right, so looking at the June month:

8. PS4, standalone
20. PS4, Destiny bundle
45. XB1, Titanfall bundle
46. XB1, standalone

Surely we expected the price drop to have a better effect than this? When it was announced there was a sense that it would outsell the PS4 at least in June, where it will have most of the month to see the new SKU work its muscles in addition to E3 announcements to hype the enthusiast crowd.

I suppose we can only have that discussion when the numbers come out, no need to discuss mere Amazon charts, i was just surprised how it was so low.

I can see the Xbox One's sales going up solely due to a price cut, but I don't know why it'd go higher than the PS4. What incentive do I have to buy the Xbox One at the PS4's price? The perception of the Xbox One is that it's an inferior machine so it should be cheaper, not same price.

 

[Road]

Right, so looking at the June month:

8. PS4, standalone
20. PS4, Destiny bundle
45. XB1, Titanfall bundle
46. XB1, standalone

Surely we expected the price drop to have a better effect than this? When it was announced there was a sense that it would outsell the PS4 at least in June, where it will have most of the month to see the new SKU work its muscles in addition to E3 announcements to hype the enthusiast crowd.

I suppose we can only have that discussion when the numbers come out, no need to discuss mere Amazon charts, i was just surprised how it was so low.

I didn't disagree with you regarding what we would expect.

But we already covered all options, them being: 1) Amazon sales are not being representative of the general market; 2) The standalone bundle is a bomba.

There is indeed nothing we can actually discuss without any numbers; we can only make conjectures.

PS.: Don't think I'm trying to shut you down. Just giving my opinion on the topic you brought up.

 

[heidern]

Surely we expected the price drop to have a better effect than this?

Except it's not a price cut. It's a downgraded SKU. The positive effect was always likely to be modest with a negligible effect also possible since technically the value equation hasn't actually improved. In fact a $499 X1 with Kinect and a game is arguably better value.

 

[CREMSteve]

Stopped into Wal-Mart in Calgary today and they had zero PS4s on the shelves. Meanwhile, the X1 shelves were stocked full.

Of course, it's completely possible that Sony's sales will continue to be diluted by being sold out, or conversely, the X1 could be selling like gangbusters and might have just been restocked when I stopped in.

However, this has been pretty typical of what I've seen since last year whenever I've made a point to stop and take a look, so I don't forsee the sales race changing anytime soon.

/anecdotal observation

 

[Nightengale]

I didn't disagree with you regarding what we would expect.

But we already covered all options, them being: 1) Amazon sales are not being representative of the general market; 2) The standalone bundle is a bomba.

There is indeed nothing we can actually discuss without any numbers; we can only make conjectures.

PS.: Don't think I'm trying to shut you down. Just giving my opinion on the topic you brought up.

It's not representative, but if we exclude the difference in rankings as absolutes, I don't recall it being terribly out of that scope either.

Amazon's rankings lack of proper representation is really more so in the fact that a SKU in no.1 vs another SKU in no.10 doesn't mean that product no.1 is selling 10x better than product in no.10.

 

[SwiftDeath]

The other problem with Amazon rankings is that the XB1 now has 3 active SKUs that are selling [TF bundle, Kinectless SKU, Forza bundle] with TF bundle and Kinectless SKU shown to be about equivalent. Whereas the PS4 only really has one notable SKU [Destiny bundle won't matter until September]

 

[shadowsdarknes]

First post--Sony only gamer. But in all fairness to MS, there isn't a whole lot of exciting stuff happening on the Xbox One immediately. The new SKU will undoubtedly boost sales of the console, but we may not see a significant surge until the Fall & Holiday season. There is relevant exclusive content coming to Microsoft's new box, but until it actually materializes on store shelves, we may just be seeing a case where consumers are still playing a wait and see game.

With the new SKU for the Xbox, along with the MK8 surge on Wii U, June's numbers could make for a very interesting NPD.

Think of it this way. June will feature a new Wii u bundle and the best selling game on the entire system. And Microsoft now justt dropped a new Sku to achieve price parity dramatically fragmenting the Kinect user base. With all that happening, the PS4 will still win June all while keeping the price in tact, saving their big releases for later, and not sacrificing their console vision at all. Its crazy.

 

[On Demand]

What is this? Hourly chart? More irrelevant than England in a World Cup.

Looking at the June charts, the standalone is still below the TF bundle, but just one place.

I would also expect the standalone to outsell the other options greatly, but as it's been said, this is just Amazon and, while it's good to give an idea, it's hardly the end all be all. Or maybe it's really just not doing that great overall. *shrugs*

Gamestop and Bestbuy show PS4 selling more also. It's not that hard to figure out that the PS4 is still ahead overall. If the price drop had a huge effect you would at least see some type of movement in those charts. The XB1 was only number 1 at Bestbuy the first week of the price drop. Then PS4 took over again. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to guess where the interest is based off the 3 big retailers.

I think the PS4 will win June.

 

[shadowsdarknes]

The TF bundle is still the best Xbox One value. I think consumers realize this.

 

[Mikey Jr.]

Dunno, after Xbone lost March, I really don't know what to think anymore. I was ready to put money down on them winning March. Thats why June NPD is a complete wildcard for me.

If Xbone doesn't win June, its pretty much shit out of luck until the Halo collection comes out.

 

[Massa]

Dunno, after Xbone lost March, I really don't know what to think anymore. I was ready to put money down on them winning March. Thats why June NPD is a complete wildcard for me.

If Xbone doesn't win June, its pretty much shit out of luck until the Halo collection comes out.

The Xbox One won't win June, but the new price point will help them when the next big current gen release like Destiny comes out. Not saying it will sell better than PS4 (obviously), but price matching should help them not lose by as much, specially with Halo fans that will be upgrading to current gen then.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

Dunno, after Xbone lost March, I really don't know what to think anymore. I was ready to put money down on them winning March. Thats why June NPD is a complete wildcard for me.

If Xbone doesn't win June, its pretty much shit out of luck until the Halo collection comes out.

There's really no chance Xbox One will win June. PS4 doubled its sales last month, and Amazon rankings (while not necessarily definitive) didn't see any huge shift in the rankings.

The $399 model simply isn't much better (if at all) of a deal compared to the more expensive Titanfall pack-ins. It's why I don't expect any huge reversals next month for the Xbox One. Sure, it'll do better (by virtue of the 5 week month, and also a new SKU for those that wanted more choice), but not massively so.

 

[Game Guru]

Why is the standalone XB1 so low?

I actually have a theory on why the $399 XB1 bundle may not sell well... It's because the Kinectless XB1 is an inferior package. There is historical data which shows that the more fully featured SKU of a console ends up getting bought over lesser SKUs of same. It was true with the 20GB PS3, the 360 Core, and the 8GB Wii U. Just because people didn't want Kinect with their XB1 doesn't mean they don't see the $399 Kinectless XB1 as being inferior to the $499 Titanfall Bundle or inferior to the various sales of the Titanfall Bundle back in March.

Like the previous two generations, it was obvious who would win the console generation before all consoles had launched, and this generation is a win for Sony and the PlayStation 4. Nintendo and MS made too many mistakes for it not to be a Sony victory. Sony was able to recover much last generation, but it did not help the PS3 to outsell the Wii and led to the PS3 and 360 basically being tied. All Nintendo and MS can do is ensure they are in a good enough position to beat Sony next generation.

 

[Nightengale]

The TF bundle is still the best Xbox One value. I think consumers realize this.

I still think that was MS's big mistake. (especially the $450 drop again)

They really damaged the value perception of the Kinectless SKU by previously introducing a killer value of a TF bundle that was priced at $450. Sure, that helped out a bit, but the inability to sustain it means that when prices go back up or when the unbundling had no TF, the value perception is weakened.

 

[Blearth]

True but we do not need hard numbers to see that the 399 standalone Xbox One is not doing well at all.

Yes we do

 

[Aquamarine]

The other problem with Amazon rankings is that the XB1 now has 3 active SKUs that are selling [TF bundle, Kinectless SKU, Forza bundle] with TF bundle and Kinectless SKU shown to be about equivalent. Whereas the PS4 only really has one notable SKU [Destiny bundle won't matter until September]

I think this is a huge problem with Amazon rankings when trying to compare relative PS4 / Xbox One performance.

Not having any kind of weight put on the rankings makes it very hard to draw conclusions from the Amazon channel check.

 

[SwiftDeath]

I think this is a huge problem with Amazon rankings when trying to compare relative PS4 / Xbox One performance.

Not having any kind of weight put on the rankings makes it very hard to draw conclusions from the Amazon channel check.

It's a pity we don't have a resident gaffer with more straightforward insight into US retail cough*

Spoiler

abdiel

*cough

 

[Abdiel]

It's a pity we don't have a resident gaffer with more straightforward insight into US retail cough*

Spoiler

abdiel

*cough

Speak of the Seraph, and he shalt appear, eh? Haha.

Well, June has been kinda interesting in terms of the movement of the different XB1 SKUs... Because stock of the original model and the TF model don't get restocks as often anymore, but both of those two have tended to be stronger movers so far. We had a burst of people picking up the Kinectless model right at launch, and some decent foot traffic after certain announcements (MCC got a pretty solid amount of pre-orders already), but at the same time, it didn't have any staying power, and most of the people we had pre-ordering the MCC already have the system. I talked to a few, and they were sold on their systems at the release of the XB1 purely with the promise of getting more of their must-have franchises, specifically Halo.

Meanwhile, the PS4 remains a consistent better seller in the districts I checked, though exactly how high that momentum is (whether it's increased since E3 or kept steady) is a bit hard to tell. Sony didn't seem to be banking on any notable 'exclusive' games being their push this year, instead stacking up next year with a fairly heavy lineup. I will say this though, the White PS4 has gotten some significant attention, quite a few people putting down the minimum amount to lock one in for themselves, but unlike Amazon, we won't really see the repercussions of that until release, as in store pre-orders and online pre-orders don't fit together into a single ranking for hardware that can be tracked on our site.

 

[GamerJM]

Sorry if this is off topic or a dumb question, but is there any reason there isn't a predict June NPD topic yet?

 

[Aquamarine]

Sorry if this is off topic or a dumb question, but is there any reason there isn't a predict June NPD topic yet?

June 2014 NPD is a 5-week reporting period (35 days) beginning June 1st, 2014 and ending July 5th, 2014.

The NPD prediction topics get made on the very last day of sales tracking.

So we'll see the new thread made on July 5th and we'll have predictions until NPD releases on July 17th.

 

[Abdiel]

June 2014 NPD is a 5-week reporting period (35 days) beginning June 1st, 2014 and ending July 5th, 2014.

The NPD prediction topics get made on the very last day of sales tracking.

So we'll see the new thread made on July 5th and we'll have predictions until NPD releases on July 17th.

That's what I figured as to why the Prediction thread hadn't been posted yet, but since Swift asked, I posted some impressions early.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Thanks Abdiel. Always interesting insights. I do think June is MS's best chance to win an NPD until maybe October? And it may be their best chance this year seeing as how they announced the kinectless SKU like 3 weeks early effectively moving any sales of XB1 for people not interested in kinect into June. Still not sure where I sit on it though.

 

[Abdiel]

Thanks Abdiel. Always interesting insights. I do think June is MS's best chance to win an NPD until maybe October? And it may be their best chance this year seeing as how they announced the kinectless SKU like 3 weeks early effectively moving any sales of XB1 for people not interested in kinect into June. Still not sure where I sit on it though.

I haven't seen anything from our districts to suggest that the XB1 is outpacing the PS4 for June, but I'm only speaking from Best Buy, obviously. I kinda feel like MS might be feeling the tension if the kinectless SKU isn't pushing a real swell like they'd hope... Unless their endgame is to create new value perception for the SKU with the Kinect in it. Seems to have worked a bit in the UK (apparently, anyway, the Titanfall bundles still seem to be the source of TF maintaining some momentum over there).

 

[ZSaberLink]

Hm interesting stuff Abdiel. I haven't talked to you before but I can get why folks were referring me to you =).

To switch gears a little bit, At Best Buy, what have you been observing with the Wii U? What I've been observing (especially online) is that the MK8 bundle seems to be out of stock in a lot of places whereas WW and M&L bundles are less sold-out. Does what I'm observing online have any truth to it? Also, if the MK8 bundle is selling out, is it a matter of low stock (at least at Best Buy) or actually very strong demand?

 

[Abdiel]

Hm interesting stuff Abdiel. I haven't talked to you before but I can get why folks were referring me to you =).

To switch gears a little bit, At Best Buy, what have you been observing with the Wii U? What I've been observing (especially online) is that the MK8 bundle seems to be out of stock in a lot of places whereas WW and M&L bundles are less sold-out. Does what I'm observing online have any truth to it? Also, if the MK8 bundle is selling out, is it a matter of low stock (at least at Best Buy) or actually very strong demand?

Hey ZSaber. Glad my observations are of use to the folks here. I like contributing.

As to the Wii U. It's not really a clear cut one or the other, in terms of low stock or high demand, but a mixture of both, depending on where you're at. Some of the stores in my home district cleared out all of their MK8 bundles on the first weekend/week of release, and they're waiting for more supply, while the inventory of the other bundles have moved much more slowly, but still sold some units, and standalone copies of MK8. In other stores, like some of the MA and ME stores (where sales tax applies), the stock lingered for a longer period.

Now, the thing that I've found interesting, is that the demand was a really nice, solid spike for the MK8 bundles. People definitely wanted them... But I have to speculate if the reason stock replenishment has been sluggish is because of two main factors. A.) NOA being conservative with initial shipments. B.) Retailers being hesitant to accept more inventory on an as yet unproven mover.

It's sort of like how with the XB1 earlier in the year, most of my stores stopped accepting refresher shipments until the whole district would sell out, except in specific circumstances. Retailers don't want inventory sitting for months, especially older bundles, which look bad sitting on the shelf.

 

[Aquamarine]

Hey ZSaber. Glad my observations are of use to the folks here. I like contributing.

As to the Wii U. It's not really a clear cut one or the other, in terms of low stock or high demand, but a mixture of both, depending on where you're at. Some of the stores in my home district cleared out all of their MK8 bundles on the first weekend/week of release, and they're waiting for more supply, while the inventory of the other bundles have moved much more slowly, but still sold some units, and standalone copies of MK8. In other stores, like some of the MA and ME stores (where sales tax applies), the stock lingered for a longer period.

Now, the thing that I've found interesting, is that the demand was a really nice, solid spike for the MK8 bundles. People definitely wanted them... But I have to speculate if the reason stock replenishment has been sluggish is because of two main factors. A.) NOA being conservative with initial shipments. B.) Retailers being hesitant to accept more inventory on an as yet unproven mover.

It's sort of like how with the XB1 earlier in the year, most of my stores stopped accepting refresher shipments until the whole district would sell out, except in specific circumstances. Retailers don't want inventory sitting for months, especially older bundles, which look bad sitting on the shelf.

About this spike...

So May 2014 NPD represents May 30th and May 31st, only two days of the launch period.

When looking at the month of June in particular, how was the transition from May 31st to June 1st? Or from late May to early June? Or from late May to June as a whole?

I'm trying to get a sense of how isolated the MK8 launch / MK8 impact on Wii U hardware sales was limited to the opening two days.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Hey ZSaber. Glad my observations are of use to the folks here. I like contributing.

As to the Wii U. It's not really a clear cut one or the other, in terms of low stock or high demand, but a mixture of both, depending on where you're at. Some of the stores in my home district cleared out all of their MK8 bundles on the first weekend/week of release, and they're waiting for more supply, while the inventory of the other bundles have moved much more slowly, but still sold some units, and standalone copies of MK8. In other stores, like some of the MA and ME stores (where sales tax applies), the stock lingered for a longer period.

Now, the thing that I've found interesting, is that the demand was a really nice, solid spike for the MK8 bundles. People definitely wanted them... But I have to speculate if the reason stock replenishment has been sluggish is because of two main factors. A.) NOA being conservative with initial shipments. B.) Retailers being hesitant to accept more inventory on an as yet unproven mover.

It's sort of like how with the XB1 earlier in the year, most of my stores stopped accepting refresher shipments until the whole district would sell out, except in specific circumstances. Retailers don't want inventory sitting for months, especially older bundles, which look bad sitting on the shelf.

Hm, so based on what you're saying, most of the Best Buys haven't been restocked much since the opening week/weekend then? When you're mentioning the other bundles were moving much more slowly, does that mean they were still selling better than before? Or did the sales of the other bundles slow down?

I was hearing from a Target employee the week after E3 that they were getting quite a bit of stock, and sales spiked even more after E3 (basically all Wii Us were sold out) at least for that week and the MK8 week. Someone was mentioning before that perhaps Nintendo was focusing on particular chains (Walmart, Target) while they had stock issues. Anything interesting on the software front?

 

[LOCK]

Hm, so based on what you're saying, most of the Best Buys haven't been restocked much since the opening week/weekend then? When you're mentioning the other bundles were moving much more slowly, does that mean they were still selling better than before? Or did the sales of the other bundles slow down?

I was hearing from a Target employee the week after E3 that they were getting quite a bit of stock, and sales spiked even more after E3 (basically all Wii Us were sold out) at least for that week and the MK8 week. Someone was mentioning before that perhaps Nintendo was focusing on particular chains (Walmart, Target) while they had stock issues. Anything interesting on the software front?

I know this has been the case in my local area. Walmart and Target has gotten MK8 bundle restock.

 

[Abdiel]

About this spike...

So May 2014 NPD represents May 30th and May 31st, only two days of the launch period.

When looking at the month of June in particular, how was the transition from May 31st to June 1st? Or from late May to early June? Or from late May to June as a whole?

I'm trying to get a sense of how isolated the MK8 launch / MK8 impact on Wii U hardware sales was limited to the opening two days.

I wouldn't say it was totally isolated. It moved solid numbers, and I don't think any of our stores failed to sell out of their entire initial shipment of MK8 bundles. It was more just that the restocking was more sluggish, with some stores (that sold through slower) barely receiving any more inventory, while our busiest stores saw more stock, but certainly not 'channel stuffing', in any sense. The Wii U saw an increased interest level this month, but at the same time, I we weren't seeing a huge software attach rate with those bundles, either. Many customers weren't buying a bunch of games to go with their new system (Management wasn't too keen on that, cause we made pretty much zilch for profit on the systems alone; they're sold at cost typically)

Hm, so based on what you're saying, most of the Best Buys haven't been restocked much since the opening week/weekend then? When you're mentioning the other bundles were moving much more slowly, does that mean they were still selling better than before? Or did the sales of the other bundles slow down?

I was hearing from a Target employee the week after E3 that they were getting quite a bit of stock, and sales spiked even more after E3 (basically all Wii Us were sold out) at least for that week and the MK8 week. Someone was mentioning before that perhaps Nintendo was focusing on particular chains (Walmart, Target) while they had stock issues. Anything interesting on the software front?

Well, when I say the other bundles were moving much more slowly, I mean that they were selling 'faster' than previously... but that's not really a comment that can be taken at face value. Like all the discussions of the 1600% increase in Vita sales. The number is absurd, but then you remember that the Vita sold almost nothing before. Wii U numbers were not that Vita sinkhole (sigh. Makes me so sad seeing the Vita struggle so hard) but the release of MK8 didn't make the other bundles show a really... 'noteworthy' uptick. We sold more than would be usual, but that's not really saying much. It's been a good month for the Wii U, but the MK8 bundles were definitely the push point, at least for us.