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NPD Sales Results for May 2010
- Thread starter EviLore
- Start date
AdventureRacing
Member
Kim Possible said:
Which is irrelevant. Do you think MS would be happy to see reach sell 5 million? Would rockstart be happy if GTAV struggled to sell 10 million? Would nintendo be happy the next NSMB game sells 10 million?
All would be highly profitable but that doesnt mean they can't be disappointed with the outcome.
Kim Possible said:
Were you even here pre slim? Very few people were suggesting the PS3 would overtake the 360.
Yes this is the closest the PS3 has ever been. This is also following sony making their biggest move this gen i.e. slim/price drop/massive rebranding.
This year MS are basically trying to position themselves the same way. I don't see why it's not possible for the 360 to outsell the PS3 WW after this happens.
Kim Possible said:
Well i think the 360 will see a boost in Europe. I wouldn't be surprised if it could sell at similar levels to the PS3 (mostly thanks to the UK).
Kim Possible said:
How much is the PS3 going to sell in Japan this year? My opinion is that the amount the 360 outsells the PS3 by in the US this year will easily surpass the PS3's YTD in Japan. I also don't think the PS3 will be outselling the 360 in Europe by anywhere near as much at the end of this year as it was at the end of last year.
Kim Possible said:
It's hard to tell. What makes you think they have peaked? Halo 3 has shown strong legs and has remained really high on the live charts.
Halo 3 game out very early in the 360s lifespan and the userbase has grown by a lot since than. I know sales don't grow in a linear vashion with userbase but i still think reach will outsell halo 3.
REMEMBER CITADEL
Banned
Kim Possible said:
Most undoubtedly, huh? I have no idea who will end up in the second place after all is said and done, but Xbox 360 and PS3 have been so close for years now that you can't really be making reasonable predictions with such certainty.
With both systems being rather similar in terms of capabilities, game line-ups (a huge change from last generation) and offered services, the battle between Xbox 360 and PS3 has evidently been very dependent on price drops. After each significant price drop the WW gap would shrink or widen, depending on the machine whose price was slashed. Unless Move or Kinect (or hey, 3D) are big game changers, I see that seesaw behaviour continuing - at least until one of the two companies switches their focus onto the next generation.
Segata Sanshiro
Member
I dunno, we're pretty far in and Sony has done little to chip away the head start Microsoft got. They've been running neck and neck for a long while now, but neck and neck isn't going to overcome a 5-6 million unit deficit. Unless the PS3 keeps on going a year or so after the 360 has stopped, it seems pretty unlikely Sony's going to be able to get over that hump into second place.REMEMBER CITADEL said:
Not like that really matters at all, anyway, other than bragging rights.
ShockingAlberto
Member
Might have a long tail like New Blood.flawfuls said:
Still.
They should really stop releasing these opposite Mario games.
Regulus Tera
Romanes Eunt Domus
dolemite said:
Well, damn.
Nuclear Muffin
Banned
Shame about Trauma Team, hopefully will do better in the long run though. (What has New Blood done so far?)
What about MH3 though?
What about MH3 though?
Pureauthor
Member
I wouldn't half mind a 3DS Trauma game.
B-Rad Lascelle said:
GT5 is going to struggle to get more than an 84?
http://www.metacritic.com/games/platforms/ps3/needforspeedshift?q=need for speed shift
charlequin
Banned
Opiate said:
The problem I have with this position is that it's based on taking a series which has sold long-term at $20 and comparing three entries at very different time periods: a 2005 game five years after its release, a 2007 game three years after its release, and a 2010 game like two months after its release, well before any pricedrops or even knowing a ballpark figure for what it will sell at full price.
The idea that this particular series has shrunk on the marketplace isn't really supported by the historical dynamics of the series' releases, either: the first GoW was released somewhat speculatively and without being treated as a blockbuster, and only really "caught on" quite some time after its release.
Basically, it doesn't strike me as necessarily sensible to view the growth of a franchise that exhibits a large amount of legs by comparing titles directly at a given point in time. If you looked at NSMB DS vs. NSMBW in Japan right now, the latter title is over two million sales behind the former, but it would be silly to suggest that "NSMB" as a brand was declining -- in fact, the latter title sold faster out of the gate than its predecessor and then continued to show legs without cutting off its predecessor's legs. I would suggest that something similar occurred here: the release of the (dramatically more hyped) God of War 2 actually drove further sales of its predecessor and both titles continued to sell side by side until the death of the PS2 software market -- which would mean the first title naturally attracted more total sales eventually, but that more total God of War games were selling each month after GoW2 than before it.
That's not to say that there necessarily won't ultimately be a demonstrated contraction for GoW3 with (say) lower purchases once it goes Greatest Hits -- it's certainly possible. But I'd sooner bet that with an eventual Greatest Hits release, GoW3 will eventually sell through more than 2m in the US -- i.e. at very least selling comparably to the highest-selling title in the series but with a significantly better percentage of full-price sales.
AdventureRacing said:
I would agree, although I think the dev cycle is the real concern here. Released two years ago, GT5 would've, I think, sold around as much, but would've served as a more effective hardware driver (and also cost less to create, obviously). At this point, the opportunity costs associated with waiting so long for GT5 are fairly significant and those, rather than the sales themselves, are the real "problem," IMO.
The problem is demographic. The 360 ultimately has one completely worthless territory (Japan) and one in which it has a major uphill struggle (Europe.) By getting a headstart, performing well in the US, and doing better than expected in Europe, 360 managed to bank and partially preserve a lead on this, but PS3 is just better preserved to attack that lead than 360 is to defend it -- PS3 can draw even in the US, or surge in Japan, or batten down in Europe, and any of those will cut into 360's lead (and in fact, since the Slim PS3 has done all three.)
Of course, the real issue here is that final "best loser" bragging rights are ultimately irrelevant. For a while we thought the GCN was going to sneak up and barely make second place just by continuing to ship after the Xbox was discontinued, but it's not like that ultimately means anything -- the difference between 2nd and 3rd is much more insignificant than that between 1st and 2nd, and it's more accurate to call the system that spent most of the generation's time in 2rd the "second place system" than whoever snuck up to that spot, unless they do so early enough that they can meaningfully change their overall situation as a result. I don't think that'll really happen with PS3 -- by the time it can cement a serious "2nd place" it'll be almost time for a transition anyway, and PS3 had already attracted releases of 90% of HD games by being 3rd place anyway so it's not like this is meaningfully improving its software library.
charlequin said:
Yep have to agree with you here. If GT5 had even released last year with the PS3 Slim I certainly don't think there would be any discussion about the 360 passing the PS3 in EU, that region would have been locked down. I'm 90% sure the PS3 has already passed 360 in EU so even now the release of GT5 will probably ensure that remains the case however the impact will not been what it could have been 1-2 years ago.
The development time for GT5 has been ridiculous to say the least, to think that when GT5 releases it will be close to 6 years since GT4 released. GT PSP, GT5
and TT did not take a huge deal of resources looking at the quality of the titles so that needs to change. I'm sure many people within Sony are aware of what a missed opportunity releasing GT5 so late has been and don't understand why they have not spoken up. Maybe because they are shit scared to their own employee?Come to think of it though I can't see there being another GT game on the PS3 if the PS4 is to release within the next 3-4 years. Common sense tells me that Sony will tell PD to move onto GT6 as a launch title for the PS4, that is if they have learnt anything this generation. Let's not forget the launch GT title for PSP2.
H_Prestige
Banned
Isn't Sony to blame for GT5 missing last year? What with them forcing the inclusion of 3D and Move support.
gutter_trash
Banned
so POP FS did not make the top 20
where is it exactly?
where is it exactly?
Segata Sanshiro
Member
Forgotten.gutter_trash said:
jett said:
Yeah there has to be a limit, ok he makes you're biggest franchise but still the amount of leeway he gets is just insane. It's like the opposite with GT compared to most other franchises where PD in actually not releasing games fast enough! Increase the number of employees at PD for goodness sake, the Forza team has over 300 people and sales are no where close to GT titles. If MS can justify Turn 10 being so big Sony should really consider it for PD, the budget for the game is not actually that insane considering the amount of time spent on it and it probably already being covered with prologue.
CadetMahoney
Member
We don't have any reliable figures for EU. . . either way I don't see PS3 getting second place this gen.
ULTROS!
People seem to like me because I am polite and I am rarely late. I like to eat ice cream and I really enjoy a nice pair of slacks.
CadetMahoney said:
Wasn't the gap between the Xbox 360 and PS3 7-9m last year? Now it's 4.5m. Anyone wanna clarify this, not entirely sure about last year's gap though?
I don't understand the console hardware arguments anymore....this generation is already set. Wii is going to be number one in hardware and PS3 and 360 will battle for second place. Maybe the PS3 will pass the 360, maybe it won't but it ultimately doesn't matter because software publishers are already treating the PS3 and 360 like they are the first place platforms. The games are still coming regardless of which console ends up ahead of the other.
I think the more interesting question is which platform will have more momentum going into the next gen.
I think the more interesting question is which platform will have more momentum going into the next gen.
Kim Possible
Banned
jett said:
I do not believe it's Yamauchi calling the shots here.
GT5 has always been a scalable product release. Last year he mentioned that the game could release at any time, but it was up to the marketing/business groups of Sony to establish a date.
I have no doubt in my mind that GT5 was held back for logistical/timing reasons.
PS3 slim had a nice boost last year due to the price cut and improving library. There were rumors swirling around that GT5 would release that December.
However, you have to ask yourself, with the momentum they already had, was GT5 positioned well to release during that time? God of War to follow shortly thereafter?
Not really, the library was strong, hardware sales were strong. Sony's lineup this fall without GT5 would have been pretty bad. Sure, they have LBP2 and Socom 4, but it's probably not enough to carry their holiday season.
GT5 is just the product they need, as 2011 is absolutely stacked for Sony. It also allows GT5 to get a few solid months of holiday bump/exposure. GT5 is releasing at the perfect time for them.
charlequin
Banned
jett said:
Broadly speaking, "Sony is to blame for letting {X} do whatever the fuck he wants" is kind of a running theme this generation.
Mrbob said:
Precisely.
Depends a lot on what strategy Nintendo decides on and when they launch into it.
I think the 3DS speaks volumes. It's releasing in months, not years.charlequin said:
Also: Hardware performance growth has slowed down dramatically lately. There's nothing to be earned by waiting (except by harvesting from your existing audience but you also need to set up a future audience).
charlequin
Banned
Man said:
Well, I agree with you, but just because I think something doesn't mean Nintendo agrees. :lol
charlequin said:
Of course! Nintendo delayed all those Motion+ titles that were to bring a "re-launch" of the Wii, and will bring them to the Wii 2 to be launched there!
/inside joke
No Player's Choice. No yearly Mario Party. No new Wario Ware's to take advantage of Balance Board or Motion Plus.
Quite a few head-scratchers.
Man said:
Has it? That certainly hasn't been my impression.
My impression is that hardware performance continues to progress nicely, but no one is willing to take advantage of it because it's simply too costly to harness for a PC market that has been consistently migrating away from big budget blockbuster games.
water_wendi
Water is not wet!
i know you really want to see low numbers so you can take a shit on Obsidian but seeing as how this is the May NPD thread and AP was a June release you are just going to have to wait until next month.jrricky said:
Actually it's still been growing great.Man said:
We've reach the point of such comical power excess relative to what games require that some people are actually rendering their PC games in 3x3 SSAA despite having base resolutions of 1680x1050 and 1920x1080. 2x2 SSAA is even starting to become somewhat common among people with better hardware.
When people can't come up with a better use for their hardware power than rendering in 5760 x 3240, it says a lot about the game/hardware disparity.
Of course, Nintendo is highly unlikely to choose the kind of hardware that we are talking about here since it could skyrocket their development costs, so I agree that there's not much point for them specifically to wait.
Segata Sanshiro
Member
The gap has never been wider than 7.5 million, which is where the 360 was at prior to the PS3 launch. After the initial launch period, the gap was at about 6.5 million and held fairly steady over the years until the last year, when it dropped to about 5.5 million courtesy of a boost from the success of the Slim and a general revival in Japan. Unless I miss my guess (and it is indeed a guess thanks to not knowing Europe), the gap is still around 5.5m.ULTROS! said:
The PS3 is doing better in Japan of course, though that's the smallest market at present. It's probably doing better in Europe, as well. But the 360 has fairly consistently had a pretty significant (usually in the amount of total Japanese sales) lead month-to-month on the PS3, and that's what is holding the PS3 back from chewing out that lead a bit faster.
DrForester
Kills Photobucket
Do we have number on Blur Vs Mario Kart in May? after that ad camapign I'd laugh hard if Mario Kart in its 24th month beat Blur in it's first.
ShockingAlberto
Member
I think it's entirely possible that ad campaign just made people go "Oh, hey, Mario Kart, I should buy that."DrForester said:
Segata Sanshiro
Member
Yeah Mario Kart almost certainly made Pinky shut it. Nothing unexpected there though, probably even Bizarre expected it.
Kim Possible said:
It's not 4 million for one although the shipped figures are at 4.5. The difference in Europe week over week at this point isn't much. Actually looking at May NPD it's likely getting comparable between the two for both territories combined for the last numbers I saw out of Europe (10-20k a week). And well Japan is getting back to par for the course again. Any real boost in the US and Europe would offset that easily. I would say MS more than has wind at it's sales now with the new model out in the US and soon Europe. With any decent boost in both (US looks it is going to happen for sure with the stock clear out on top of the Slim per MS) it's just going to go right back up. In fact they will probably have nice shipments numbers YoY for both this quarter and next with the way they have spread out the shipments WW.
Sony has pretty much admitted no price cut anytime soon and MS still hasn't played a perm price cut since 08. 2 years now and its gonna happen sometime no question about it. They may hold off in the US however if they start doing really well post Slim. They could do so anytime this fall however. I really would not be surprised if they mark $50 off sometime by November. $149 at Christmas with the new model as long as it had even a small HDD could be close to the effect of the $199 arcade. But even before that they can play the new Arcade in August/Sept with Reach and it should see solid if not great numbers before the holiday season even takes off. The only thing they need to do better this holiday is better bundles and any price drop would do wonders.
The bundles in 08 were very good. Especially the GH BF bundle. As it is the SW lineup looks just as good this fall when compared to 08 if not a bit better. They did really well that year they just need the price drop to match. As for Sony the price cut and slim from them has now had zero impact on 360 sales in the US with its greatest lead ever LTD. Likely passing 8 million in the next month or two. Similar to 08 with a real price cut this fall it could easily be 9 by sometime after the start of the year. Between now and Nov they shouldnt have too hard of a time in Europe and by that time it would be a prime spot for a price cut at or around the launch of Kinect. A year and half out from now at the start of 2012 my guess is depending on price cut timing the difference between the two is a bit more than it is now sold by retailers. As for Reach its likely to be one of the best Halo titles to date judging from what has been shown and played. As it is it could have the best legs ever on a Halo title. The quality should be way up there. The real question is at this point is what do they put in the fall 2011 software slots. As for Sony selling 15 million in the next year well without a real price drop a really good price drop WW Im not sure how they expect to beat last years showing with a $100 price drop and new form factor. Crazier things have happened I suppose. We'll be able to start comparing the YoY numbers come Sept however.
AdventureRacing said:
Bingo.
AdventureRacing said:
They basically have matched step by step. They just need to have the perm price drop to match this fall.
Maxwell House
Member
******** has the all time widest gap around September 5th 2009 when the 360 had a lead of 8.5 million over ps3. Their site currently has that lead down to 5 million. This week the 360 is back to outselling the ps3 worldwide and this is before Europe gets the new 360 sku on July 16th. I think the gap between ps3 and 360 will start growing again, with the new slim 360, a probable price drop on 360 this fall, release of Halo Reach, and the release of kinect.
Segata Sanshiro
Member
Yeah, "Bunchofasterisks" is a super-good site to source, especially in a thread where all of Sales-Age is watching.Maxwell House said:
Regulus Tera
Romanes Eunt Domus
Did we ever get numbers for FFXIII post-launch month?
Thunder Monkey
Banned
His end was swift though.Segata Sanshiro said:
That has to matter in some way.