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NPD Sales Results for March 2009
- Thread starter EviLore
- Start date
Chumly said:
The pubs don't stop and they won't. Yet when a Wii game starts off slow everybody calls for the Wii to stop getting games and claiming that those games would automatically sell better on PS360. And I'm not talking about people on Forums. Almost every videogame blog and website is saying the same shit.
I'm glad that Grin possibly won't be hurt too badly by Wanted bombing, I just hope that their budget wasn't too big, and that Bionic Commando does well.
Sony also thought they'd have not too much problems selling the PS3 at $499-$599 USD, I have a feeling that a lot of 2005 expectations/hopes have long since been dashed.
Understandable, I just want to reiterate that the game actually only saw 1 month and 2 days worth of sales for the 619k. Had they launched Killzone 2 a few days later, and we only got the 1 month reporting period, people would be comparing it to MGS4, which sold 774,600 copies in its first reported month.
Now Granted MGS4 came out on the 12th of June, versus Killzone 2 hypothetically coming out at the beginning of March, or what not, but it's easy to see how the numbers being split with the 2 days/1 full month alters the perception when it's essentially one month of raw sales (+2 days at the tail end on the second reporting period) split awkwardly.
Let's say 600k then. Certainly a sucess for SCEA, relatively speaking. Honestly the only thing that could have pushed it much further, imo, would have been a price cut. I don't really blame Sony's marketting department even though I would describe them and neither competent nor incompetent. There's only so much you can do with re-establishing a tarnished IP on a console that's $399 dollars.
charlequin said:
Sony also thought they'd have not too much problems selling the PS3 at $499-$599 USD, I have a feeling that a lot of 2005 expectations/hopes have long since been dashed.
Understandable, I just want to reiterate that the game actually only saw 1 month and 2 days worth of sales for the 619k. Had they launched Killzone 2 a few days later, and we only got the 1 month reporting period, people would be comparing it to MGS4, which sold 774,600 copies in its first reported month.
Now Granted MGS4 came out on the 12th of June, versus Killzone 2 hypothetically coming out at the beginning of March, or what not, but it's easy to see how the numbers being split with the 2 days/1 full month alters the perception when it's essentially one month of raw sales (+2 days at the tail end on the second reporting period) split awkwardly.
Let's say 600k then. Certainly a sucess for SCEA, relatively speaking. Honestly the only thing that could have pushed it much further, imo, would have been a price cut. I don't really blame Sony's marketting department even though I would describe them and neither competent nor incompetent. There's only so much you can do with re-establishing a tarnished IP on a console that's $399 dollars.
Psychotext
Member
Does the price of the console even matter when you've got 7.2m consoles already bought which you can sell the game to? MGS4 sold to an install base of 4.9m (in the US) and still did notably better.Zen said:
Not to mention that's 24 days of sales for MGS4 vs 37 days for Killzone 2.
Saint Gregory
Member
I think it would be helpful if people would stop trying to figure out how much a game costs to develop by simply looking at it and making asumptions based on its overall quality (or lack thereof). If games were built like houses then that would make sense because you could just look at a couple and say "this one's made of wood and that one's made of marble" and it would be easy to know which one cost the most to make. But games are essentially made from time. You can have a game that looks and plays like ass but still cost a fortune to make because of time spent (or wasted) working on the controls or on the flipside you can have a game that looks and plays great but didn't cost much at all due to good planning and re-use of an engine and assets from a previous game.
That's why I think it's really important to wait for the publisher of any game to state whether or not X game is a flop since as the financial backer of the game they'd be the only one to really know. If half of the speculation on game dev costs that I read in this months thread were true then we'd only get a couple dozen or so game realeases every year and more than half of them would be from Capcom and Nintendo.
That's why I think it's really important to wait for the publisher of any game to state whether or not X game is a flop since as the financial backer of the game they'd be the only one to really know. If half of the speculation on game dev costs that I read in this months thread were true then we'd only get a couple dozen or so game realeases every year and more than half of them would be from Capcom and Nintendo.
creamsugar
Member
Random new game:
Wii
Sonic and the Black Knight > 60k
FFCC: EoT < 15k
Kororinpa 2 < 10K
PES 2009 < 5k
Wii
Sonic and the Black Knight > 60k
FFCC: EoT < 15k
Kororinpa 2 < 10K
PES 2009 < 5k
TheGreatDave
Banned
Too much for Sonic.
lowlylowlycook
Member
Saint Gregory said:
Coincidentally, Capcom and Nintendo almost constitute a complete list of publishers that are making money on console games this gen.
Psychotext said:
Userbases are more elastic than they are an ever growing number. PS3 sales are down this year, although Killzone 2 helped make the YOY drop not as big in its launch month as it had been in the prior month, and this month, if I'm reading things right.
37 days of Killzone 2? Wasn't it only counted for 2 days in the first NPD period?
Well, actually, MGS4 came out on June 12th, if I remember correctly, so wouldn't the 776K figure be based off of 2 weeks of sales (not including bundles) for the June reporting period?
Like I said, I was just pointing out how people would compare it with a similar lack of context as they're showing now with Killzone 2.
Rough and dirty math time:
Metal Gear Solid 4 sold roughly, what, 100k in its second month? So let's say MGS4 sold an additional, what, 60k? in the next 2 weeks that was captured in the July Period?
So it sold, what, lets say, 830K+ for a full 'month'? (not including bundles).
Again feel free to ajust for accuracy, this is rought and dirty math going off vague memory, and is potentially royally screwed if the NPD starts at stops their reporting period on days I'm not aware of.
Killzone 2 would be at, roughly, 600k? No Bundles for America mind you. Now MGS4 is probably more front loaded than Killzone 2, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Killzone 2 hit 1 million LTD in America in the next few months, in fact I bet it will probably sell around 140k for the next NPD month. You don't sell a relatively comparable number of units in an entire month as you did in the first two days worth of sales if the game doesn't have a bit of legs to it.
It's indisputable that Killzone 2 is not an MGS4, but Killzone 2 also comes from a tarnished brand that has to rely on a much more casual fanbase picking it up, and often that means a much more casual fanbase of potential customers who won't touch Killzone 2 as an owner on account of the PS3 being expensive as sin right now in comparison to the competition and for this climate.
Although the PS3 userbase is bigger now than it was with MGS4, the types of people who buy MGS trend towards far more hardcore and reliable fanbase. Where as Killzone 2 had to rely on the PS faithful (who tend to show up for most PS3 releases in similar numbers) and casuals. We've already seen this PS exclusive out performing all of SCEA's other PS3 exclusives for the time period, I mean, sure it might not be quite the numbers Sony hoped for back in 2005, but what is?
It's still a sucess, but the ultimate barrier to entry for people buying Killzone 2 isn't Killzone 2, it's the price of the PS3 closing off the game to the more casual user and greater mind share.
Holy shit, I caught this one when I was reading some posts. Are you serious? Zelda? Zelda? This name is synonymous to sales and 'hardcore' (WTF?).:lolCygnus X-1 said:
And I guess whatever else Nintendo has announced and is being released in a few days and weeks are not considered 'hardcore' (WTF?)
suffah said:The winner chooses the avatar the other user must use for 2 weeks, or however long you want.
The #10 spot next month will probably need 150-175k. That means KZ2 will need to only sell ~50% of what it did in the first two days for the entire month of March.
EDIT: Oh crap KZ2 ad just came on tv. Probably an omen. :lol
Don't worry, your new Avatar is incoming.
Killzone 2 will also still be in the top 20 next month. rpmurphy said:
Makes perfect sense. All those 20 million U.S. Wii owners are just the same 20 million U.S. GCN owners, so it follows that the buying habits are all the same, too. Thanks for clearing that up.
Zen said:Killzone 2 will also still be in the top 20 next month.
Nah.
Zen said:
First six weeks. 320K first week. Next five weeks 296K. Possible weekly dropoffs (just throwing together numbers here): 150, 50, 40, 35, 21. If it stayed at an average of 20K per week in April, it has a shot of making the bottom of the Top 20 for the month. I'm kind of doubting that. It should easily be in the PS3 Top 10, though.
Zen said:How about an avatar bet
Generally try to avoid those types of things.
Comparing Killzone 2 1st full month to MGS4 is absurd.
Millions o gamers knew that MGS is one of the best gaming series around for the last 10 years. They don't need promotion to buy that game 1st month.
Killzone 2 -- who was confident let's say 2 years ago that a sequel to crappy game would be THAT GOOD actually?
People bought it on hype/demo/reviews.
It's obvious that Killzone 2 will have better legs, than MGS4 -- no fanbase to support 1st month, much more accessible game than MGS4.
MGS4 already passed 4M WW. So 5M is very real for Killzone 2.
Millions o gamers knew that MGS is one of the best gaming series around for the last 10 years. They don't need promotion to buy that game 1st month.
Killzone 2 -- who was confident let's say 2 years ago that a sequel to crappy game would be THAT GOOD actually?
People bought it on hype/demo/reviews.
It's obvious that Killzone 2 will have better legs, than MGS4 -- no fanbase to support 1st month, much more accessible game than MGS4.
MGS4 already passed 4M WW. So 5M is very real for Killzone 2.
Mutanthands
Member
bycha said:
No. Maybe if it becomes a pack-in. For a very long time.
Cosmonaut X
Member
Vinci said:
Uhh, not looking too likely at the mo. It came out a couple of weeks back and has had absolutely zero marketing (unlike PES 2008) and judging by its chart positions (or lack thereof) it's unlikely to match PES 2008's sales, let alone "sell like crazy".
Konami screwed up again in releasing it far later than the other versions, but this time they compounded that by not even advertising the damn thing.
legend166 said:darthvadernooooooo.gif
the best sports game ever and no one cares
I will buy the next year version when World Cup comes.
Konami seem to give up on the PES series in general. It lost a lot of its popularity from FIFA and they don't seem to do anything to help it.
BishopLamont
Banned
legend166 said:
Any numbers to back that up?Chumly said:
frankie_baby
Member
it never made the uk top 40BishopLamont said:
Psychotext
Member
I'm talking about software sales, not the effect of the game on hardware sales... which is a whole different issue.Zen said:
APZonerunner
Member
Out of curiosity, any other to-date figures for other big RPGs? Lost Odssey, Mass Effect, Fallout etc etc? I know the latter two will paint a grim picture for all the JRPGs in this quote, but eh.
BishopLamont
Banned
So UK=Europe now?frankie_baby said:
Cosmonaut X
Member
BishopLamont said:
No, but the UK was a very strong market for PES 2008 and AFAIK it hasn't charted in any of the other European charts we get.
DeaconKnowledge
Member
APZonerunner said:
I don't think you need worry about Mass Effect and Fallout. This phenomena doesn't seem to affect Western RPGs.
APZonerunner
Member
DeaconKnowledge said:
No, that's why I want to know. I'm curious how wide the gap is.
Neo C. said:
The biggest concern is if it wasn't marketed properly even after it had come late. It needed advertising. Perhaps it'll be one of those things that sells well over a long period of time though. Who knows.
Damn shame they screwed it up as horribly as they did.
What is it with publishers having no damn clue how to sell their products this gen?
poppabk
Member
Yeah the Wii version was their potential ace in the hole, in that they actually did something novel and interesting with the controls, beating Fifa in terms of quality in the first year. Then they released late and with no advertising for the Wii version for a second year in a row - I mean there are only 5 games to go in the premier league, its like releasing madden during the playoffs.billy.sea said:
poppabk said:
They aren´t even smart enough to use this late Wii release to push all the other versions with an ad campaign. I´m one of the people who are interesested in the Wii iterations but haven´t bought neither 2008 nor 2009 yet, due to their imo not tolerable late releases. In the end it´s indeed only their loss.
Psychotext
Member
There's a ton of games been compared in this thread... that's just another of them. I'm almost finished with putting together a list of a bunch of first month game figures for both the PS3 and 360. Will post it in a bit.TheBranca18 said:
Psychotext
Member
Talking of which... anyone know the reporting period for the November 2006 NPD results? I can't seem to find it anywhere.
Ok, this is just a shot in the dark...Psychotext said:
Recall that January 2007 was a five-week month, whereas January is usually four. I'd guess that makes it 31 Dec 2006 to 3 Feb 2007.
Working backward from there we get December 2006 period to be 26 Nov 2006 to 30 Dec 2006. That leaves November 2006 period as 29 Oct 2006 to 25 Nov 2006.
Maybe someone else can help confirm that.
Psychotext
Member
Ok, that makes sense. Thanks.
poppabk said:
I still think that people got burned on the control scheme. Even if its great, many people had no patience to learn it or just didn't like the change in control for a game that has the same controls for years. Even though PES2009 has classic controls, it isn't advertised at all and people must have written it off as a new version of 2008 with the same controls.
I know that in my friend group who played the Wii version, no one liked the controls. I'm talking about a sample of 10 people or something. I think this can't be ignored when judging the sales of 2009.
Chris FOM said:
MadWorld 1st month ~= God Hand LTD + 50%
duk said:
I think the only possible "definite" measuring stick we have on that is a report that one of the developers said it was the most expensive entertainment property ever developed in the Netherlands. Someone then followed that up with saying there was a $20m Euro movie made there previously. I want to say that the particular interview was from the end of 2007, as well.
jvm said:
I can definitely confirm the January dates, so the November dates should be correct, too.