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NPD Sales Results for July 2013 [Up2: 3DS Minimum, AC:NL, LM2/NSMBU LTDs, Xbox 360]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
CosmicQueso
Member
Who's saying they can? Not a single forecaster or investment firm is saying they can.
Overall consumer spending in games continues to increase across all the new channels, spending patterns are changing, market's evolving. It happens.
metalslimer
Member
They won't. And a shrinking base while costs continue to be high is not a good formula
Magicpaint
Member
Does it need to to make Nintendo happy though? I don't think so. People are too focused on the fact that it is behind the DS. Well the market has changed. Nintendo will have to readjust their expectations. 150+ million systems aren't the norm in the industry.
Yeah I remember Randy Pitchford going over this about 6-12 months ago.
The fewer, bigger, better strategy is generally working out for the publishers that can actually make titles that fit that mold.
I do think more digital support on consoles to fill in what was once the mid tier (or even the lower end of the upper tier) of games is important for maintaining variety and sales volume, but so far I'm encouraged that the vendors seem to be making solid efforts on this front.
Right, I think it by far makes the most sense to compare the PS4/XB1 to the PS3/360, since that's the actual market they're targeting.
AndrewDean84xX
Banned
It's behind the GBA as well though, isn't it?
Got to be cause for concern when your latest product sells less than the last two iterations.
From creamsugar, he's an insider.
AndrewDean84xX
Banned
Should Sony be concnerned when the PS4 inevitably sells worse than the PS3 and PS2? No. Times have changed, and with those changes, the goal posts need to be moved.
Yes, they should.
Should Kodak have been concerned when their film sales declined year after year?
It's significantly behind the GBA:
The DS starts to power through the GBA in the not too distant future though.
I think there is value in Nintendo limiting the 3DS to a ~5 year lifespan and trying to put out a device designed entirely with the modern market in mind at the end of 2015.
Its main competitors change and get updated every year. A faster cadence than the DS wouldn't be a terrible idea, and they used to actually do it once upon a time.
Yes, they absolutely would need to be concerned. Game development is getting increasingly more expensive, the business isn't sustainable when sales are further declining.
Nothing inevitable about that and if it does happen, then they damn well should be concerned.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Err, yes, they should? And it should tell them that they need to get R&D costs under control, look for alternate revenue streams, prepare for further decline, look at how other divisions can take over. Businesses shouldn't react by saying "well, shit, we're fucked. what now?", they should foresee product category declines and adapt in advance to ease the transition.
I see you don't work for Blackberry!
Eventually transitioning to a cheap mobile part based set top box might make sense depending on how those take off. It won't be incredibly long before they hit the PS4 power level and keep going.
That also depends though on how fast the price of the APU they use can lower. If that has a good cost curve, it might not be a huge problem.
Magicpaint
Member
In the US it is by a significant margin and that is definitely cause of concern (ahead in Japan though and I think about on par (?) in EU since the GBA was never explosive there as the DS was). But the GBA also launched straight into mainstream price at $99...this is precisely why it avoided the slow starts that plagued the DS and is currently hampering the 3DS (of course the 3DS also has external competition to contend with, too).
metalslimer
Member
The problem with 2015 is i just don't see them having a good enough lineup ready and assuming a big power jump games are going to take even longer. I do think the 3DS should have a shorter span than the DS, but then again i think the ds was pulled faster than it should have been. The next handheld also shouldn't launch above 149
Maybe if they can do a quick turn around with direct sequels and reuse assets. Super Mario 3D Land 2, new Fire Emblem/Advance Wars, Majora's Mask 3DS, new Starfox, Pokemon Z. I agree with the price though. $120 and under always felt like great value for handhelds. I remember the GBC being less than some new N64 carts.
Remember the Wii U? Quick direct sequels in the vein of NSMBU won't work, Nintendo has to show people why they need to own the new hardware in order to play the new games. If the new games are just direct sequels to the same stuff the 3DS offered, people likely won't bite. Nintendo has a serious problem with its resources, really. It's biting them in the ass that they didn't expand sooner.
It's also worth to keep in mind that a quick successor to the 3DS represents a huge risk for the company. The 3DS is selling decently, it's no where close to GBA and DS but it's at least making the company money. With the Wii U unlikely to recover, can they risk putting a new handheld on the market? When it flops, Nintendo got nothing to keep itself profitable.
The DS was pulled because it was dead in the water in Japan and fairly dead in Europe.
I mean yes it was still doing well in the US, but the concern was everywhere else.
As of this Fall, Nintendo will have released Pokemon, 2D Mario, 3D Mario, Brain Age, Animal Crossing, Mario Kart, Friend Collection, Zelda, Nintendogs, and Mario & Luigi, and third parties will have released games like Monster Hunter and Kingdom Hearts.
There will have also been a wide variety of niche interest games released in almost every genre, including attempts at new markets on Nintendo handhelds like Resident Evil: Revelations.
There's not much in the way of known sellers that are likely to come out for the 3DS that haven't already been delivered. Obviously moving the price of the system is an option, but I don't see a lot of other obvious avenues to continue to push growth or even sustain sales momentum for a game perspective.
The two that come to mind are Dragon Quest and potentially Super Smash Bros, or a mystery game that's a huge success, but if that's all that's left for the next two years, they want to be planning ahead.
If the next system is releasing in a bit over two years, they could simply start diverting a few teams for the launch window now in order to have support ready.
But people did bite initially. The problem was dangling the same bait for too long. I'm not saying that kind of stuff by itself is okay but more important than having nice big new releases is keeping that chain of releases that started earlier this year going.
A 2015 launch seems too soon, to me, it'd be less than 5 years after its launch.
2016 would be the ideal time for launching the next handheld, I think. Especially considering they need to have great content starting from launch, next time.
Can Crusher
Banned
It's not inevitable nor would it be expected, and Sony would have to be worried. Wii U isn't a failure because the market contracted.
It's one of the benefits of the APU design, supposedly cost reduction comes at a much higher pace. And it's inevitable that all in one mobile devices are the future.
Metallix87
Member
Comparisons to GBA and DS are flawed because of price point. Both of those systems launched at much lower price points, and GBA especially started at a VERY mainstream $99.
metalslimer
Member
Well Nintendo needs to release the final wave of 3DS games from in house. Stuff like Kirby, pokemon z, majora's mask, possibly metroid. Thinking more about it 2015 is actually plausible when you realize they have realeased all their evergreens this early so they have 2 more years to coast
AndrewDean84xX
Banned
But shouldn't Sony know that the gaming world changed and project lower numbers than in the past? Like I said, if they moved the goal posts, what's to be concerned about if they know they wont sell as much as they have in the past.
Maybe because I have no stake in how things turn out, but as someone that can see how things are going, I would expect next gen to sell a fraction of the amount of this current gen.
Do people think next gen will sell more than the current gen?
Maybe because I have no stake in how things turn out, but as someone that can see how things are going, I would expect next gen to sell a fraction of the amount of this current gen.
Do people think next gen will sell more than the current gen?
Can Crusher
Banned
Sony has every reason to believe the PS4 can sell more than the PS3, and not only that, the PS4 can also become a much higher source of revenue. Why would they move goal posts?
Next gen PS4/Xbone comperable to PS3/Xbox360? Yeah I'd say so. I mean those numbers are pretty comperable to the previous generation of PS2 and Xbox so despite smartphones, facebook, browsers, MMOs and whatnot there hasn't been a decline.
Now the Wii audience that will have to be subtracted and so overall next gen will sell less than previous gen but only because the bubble has burst.
AndrewDean84xX
Banned
Gaming trends. PS3 selling less than the PS2. Vita failing in the west. Smartphone/Tablet gaming on the rise. Then again, I might be looking too into those things. We should get a good idea on how things are playing out a year or two into next gen.
I'm excited to be getting my PS4 this fall. Hopefully in October like it's rumored. *fingers crossed*
Magicpaint
Member
The thing is the PS4 can sell less than PS3 and still be far kinder to Sony's bottom line. The PS3 had a nice recovery and it found itself a significant market share, but it also bled Sony a lot of money they never recovered.
I don't see Nintendo ending the 3DS after 5 years. If anything I think 6 or 7 years out on the market is preferable for them as they can get the price of the OG/XL models down to mass market entry prices of 99/129 USD. Right now I think both models are too expensive for the mass market, even though once a month in the US there seems to be a deal/discount on either model.
And Xbox360 selling more than Xbox, see the trend there or do we chose to just ignore that PS2 audience pretty much just split due to Sony's fuck-ups?
NeonZ
Member
Would a new "system" really be the correct choice though? Assuming that the extra market that came with the DS isn't available anymore, if you look at the GBA, its explosive sales likely came at least partially from the low price point. A new system soon will inevitably mean they'll take longer to reach that price point again.
The 3ds' successor needs significantly better graphical capabilities while having better battery life and low price. It just isn't something that can be produced easily. Betting in new gimmicks has failed twice already, and has basically crippled their new home console, so I don't think Nintendo will be willing to attempt another go with their next portable.
metalslimer
Member
The thing about keeping it out that long is they would end up launching 2 platforms very close which would kill them as both would have shit lineups
Edit: Oh and nirolak i used the word pulled but i meant had a successor out. I don't think the 3DS should have launched for at least another year but they were hell bent on defeating Sony when Sony is no competition at all
The GBA launched at $99 so it's not impossible to make a handheld in that range.
I mean you can even get a Nexus 7 for $200, which has a generally powerful set of internal, and the SoC is only estimated to be around $21-$25 of that.
Refreshment.01
Member
"A a device designed entirely with the modern market in mind". When you say that the only thing i can think of is Nintendo creating another portable and then partnering up with a phone maker to make a spin off that plays Nintendo games.
Or what did you had in mind?
Can anyone please repsot Creamsugar's data? This threads are long XD
That is a valid point. Wii U to have a 4 year life cycle confirmed.
metalslimer
Member
By the end of 2015, i can see them launch a slightly more powerful than vita system with a 720p screen for 129 and breaking even.
I was thinking more along the lines of something that's like an Android device or an iPod Touch, even if it doesn't use Android.
Obviously they would still want integrated buttons and other such features though, but you know, something that's a really smooth and snappy consumer experience to use.
You could probably even go quite a bit further at that price point by then. Mobile technology moves very quickly. The really nice high resolution screens represent a large chunk of the cost.
I don't think Nintendo will have enough resources to pull off supplying the Wii U with games (since no one else will make games for it) and developing new games on the Vita level of production values/graphics by 2015. We already know that the system won't start selling until the Nintendo games arrive since outside of Japan no one will make games for it, so they need to not repeat 3DS launch.
Overall I'd be pretty scared if I was Nintendo because the next handheld will be important. Already smartphones outperform the 3DS and this will only continue on. Nintendo will also fare worse in the app and OS category. So really the only choice here is to have this as a cheap kids device launching at around 129 using basically this years smartphone technology. Then you also have the issue of keeping or getting rid off the 3DS screen which really has failed as a gimmick and the twin-screen approach which is outdated now, but getting rid of those two would mean no BC.
NeonZ
Member
The GBA came after the Gameboy basically kept its same hardware for a decade though. It's exactly the opposite of what you're talking about there. They managed to launch it at a low price point and with upgraded capabilities because their last system lived for too long and so technology progressed enough for that.
Then, again, I'm not sure about the component prices, so maybe they can release something cheap relatively soon. I don't think it's likely though considering the current hardware prices of the dedicated handhelds.
As for the smartphone idea, I just can't see it happening. Nintendo has no practice with that kind of technology, and their most recent advanced OS (the Wii U's) is very slow and just shows how it isn't their expertize. They'd need a big partnership to do something like that, basically handling the entire OS side at least, and by that point they'd be basically a third party developing to someone else's system. I just can't see that happening without their handheld business completely failing first.
metalslimer
Member
Considering the fact that no one is putting money into the 3DS's 3d tech anymore it will probably die. I really would like the 2 screens to stay, but i would understand if they didn't. At some point bc has to go otherwise they will be stuck with the same setup forever. 2 720p screens would be nice, but i don'tt know how the battery would deal.
Yeah that's the problem. I think they should probably go with a Gameboy-> DS type of hardware change and just start anew. Haivng a 720 4.6 inch touchscreen shouldn't cost much, you can probably get AMOLED for cheaps from Samsung by 2015.
Component prices are pretty good these days. That's why we have things like a Tegra 3 powered Ouya with a controller for $100 or an $80 GameStick, and even $200 tablets with excellent HD screens and a lot of horsepower.
Shalashaska161
Member
Smartphones outpacing the 3DS graphically isn't a huge deal. We've seen time and time again that graphical power isn't really a huge selling point. As for apps and OS features, I'm not convinced that's a big deal either. The 3DS isn't marketed or meant to be an all in one device, it's a games machine. That's why people buy it. Also, smartphones won't ever get Mario or Pokemon, meaning there will always be exclusive software to move systems.
And why do they need to get rid of the 3D screen or the dual screens? Nintendo needs something to differentiate them from smartphones, why remove 2 of their defining features?
Metallix87
Member
I think they'll have to keep the dual screens moving forward. Dropping BC would be a huge blow to them.
metalslimer
Member
As far as i know sharp doesn't have any higher res 3d screens. The 3d fad is dead and i dont think they would even choose 3d for the 3ds given the option. They need a new angle next time although there seems to be very little new tech that can benefit games.
I think a 149 handheld with a 5-6 hour battery with a new 2d mario and something else at launch would do fine.