THe previous split was more towards 360 but so were most multiplats last gen. When you figure into account that PS4 has an exclusive souls like game and is the more popular platform for multiplats this gen I think its logical to assume it will be slanted in PS4's favor.
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NPD Sales Results for January 2016
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
THe previous split was more towards 360 but so were most multiplats last gen. When you figure into account that PS4 has an exclusive souls like game and is the more popular platform for multiplats this gen I think its logical to assume it will be slanted in PS4's favor.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Yep, MLB should do very well. I learned my lesson with the last one.
Rabid Dwarf 76
Member
This sounds about right.
Woo-Fu
Banned
If they shipped a complete game they wouldn't have to manage customer expectations.
Probably be a shitstorm when the average consumer buys Hitman and gets an episode.
Welfare
Member
You think the Division will sell more on PS4 despite the marketing deal and being a shootbang game? How come?
DriftingSpirit
Member
The Division is a shooter with multiplayer. It is going to perform better on X1. Just like Seige. At the very least, I think it will be very close.
Obliterator
Member
Anyone want to throw out Primal unit predictions?
Not that Amazon is a great indicator for software, but look at both Jan and Feb. The Division is selling better on PS4 (at least on Amazon it seems).
Now factor in that XB1 is going to have a Division bundle ($399 though) which will take away some retail sales...
There's a good chance that the PS4 version (helped also by its install base) will have the edge in spite of the marketing deal and type of game, same as Witcher 3 and Fallout4.
Our stores have a bigger split than that in favor of the PS4 for the Division. Not *much* higher, but higher nonetheless.
The fucking bundle is still a waste of space, by the way. No one gives a shit about it.
Some people seem annoyed with the DLC thing, but not enough to care.
Huh. Would not have expected that TBH. It seems like the sort of game that would appeal to the core XB1 userbase. Figured the sales ratio would reflect that.
.... You realize who you are citing Amazon Software rankings too right? My tag is like the official SalesGAF disclaimer for Amazon Software rankings.
Anyway, I guess its possible PS4 could generate the majority of console sales for the Division but I'm still skeptical. It just seems like a game that would heavily appeal to the general XBox demographic more than the Playstation demo and I don't really see the bundle moving many units so I doubt it will impact sales as much as something like the Destiny bundle did. We shall see.
ps4 is the leading console so it would surprise me if it didn't.
Crazy that Fire Emblem Fates is backordered for both on Amazon and Birthright is out on BestBuy (all my local Best Buys have it, though, according to the website). Didn't figure there to be shortages this time around. At least don't appear as severe as Awakening's. 9 days in NPD, NPD will count them as separate games, the 300K includes digital purchases of the second path (and downloads in general), not sure if the SE will be grouped in with Birthright/Conquest/Neither in NPD... We may have a super selling, #1 or 2 by Nintendo's numbers (combined) selling game that barely makes the Top 10 for one version in February. Oh, well. Should at least get some software numbers (combined) on it from Nintendo for the month!
SO we're sure they'll be counting the two games separately then? That significantly lowers Fire Emblem's chances of ranking. Im sure it will still show up somewhere near the bottom though.
Calm waterfall
Banned
How much did the last one do?
200-300k first month, 100-200k second month, and ~650k in 2015 on PS4 alone.
This year in March it will definitely be behind The Division and TLOD:TP HD, and probably behind Hitman and Pokken for ~5th place on the NPD.
April will be much more interesting. It will be behind Uncharted, Dark Souls and the Division, but I expect it to fight with Quantum Break, Ratchet and Clank, and Starfox for 4th.
They count Pokemon separately, and those are way more closer games to each other than Birthright/Conquest. NPD may surprise us, but I just can't see them combining the two into one entry. The SE is weird in that it has both. Wonder if they'll just add it to one or keep it out altogether.
theprodigy
Member
I was skeptical before, but assuming that 300k is full priced copies only I'd be more surprised if Birthright didn't chart at this point.
I posted my prediction quite a few pages back but I'll still go with 500-600k debut.
We're in a bit of a AAA gaming lull and I think the Far Cry brand holds a lot of weight with mainstream audiences.
Hmm I don't know why you'd be surprised to see PS4 Division sales edge XB1.
Install base and hype for a mega third party franchise debut should see PS4 win it by about 52:48 imo.
The casual audience on PS4 also means the thirst for shootbang is way more than the PS3 days.
And yeah the XB1 bundle is an absurd price as delved into by Abidel so moot point haha.
Alex_Mexico
Member
Yup. NPD Top 10s aren't fun to speculate since there's only wiggle room for half of that or less. 5 out of 10 are permanent regulars: GTAV, Minecraft, FIFA, Madden, NBA 2K
The rest are predictable too but not like those 5.
Ah ok so there's no official confirmation either way but yes I agree that your cited precedent implies separate SKUs are indeed more likely and yea the SE will be an odd case. My guess would be that it would qualify as a third SKU. But it could just adversity be added to the total of the leading SKU as well. Such an odd situation. Hopefully we can get some clarification on it come time for NPD.
I think at least one of the SKUs stands a good chance of charging but if they are counted separately it would surely be a lower ranking (8 or lower) and not a higher one IMO.
Meh I could very well be wrong and you raise some good points but its just how I'm feeling about the title right now. I've never claimed to be prescient or infallible. It just seems like it's a title that would appeal to the same audience that created platform share disproportionate sales splits in favor of XB1 for CoD titles so far this gen.
I guess I wouldn't be "surprised" so maybe that was poor phrasing. It's more that, going by the game type and it's market appeal, I think it's more likely to appeal to that aforementioned audience.
Yep, I know better than to rely on Amazon for general software prediction, which is why I say -for Amazon- twice in the same sentence hehe.
But then again, as said, there are other factors at play.
Now it -is- possible that the XB1 version would still end up selling more due to being a shooter, marketing, and the Tom Clancy franchise history with Xbox (cf Siege), but personally I don't see it,though the split should be much closer than for some other titles imo.
Fire Emblem Fates will chart at #2 or #3 if NPD track it combined. If not, i expect both SKUs to be in TOP 10, probabily just barely. ( like #10 and #9 ) It may outsell Far Cry Primal, but not Black Ops III.
For The Division i expect around 49/51 for PS4. We are talking about a shooter, so the gap will be almost nothing. Also, with the bundle, i can see the XB1 version as the best selling version.
Dark Souls 41/59. Nothing to say, Souls fanbase is stronger on PlayStation, and i feel like now is even bigger after BloodBorne.
For The Division i expect around 49/51 for PS4. We are talking about a shooter, so the gap will be almost nothing. Also, with the bundle, i can see the XB1 version as the best selling version.
Dark Souls 41/59. Nothing to say, Souls fanbase is stronger on PlayStation, and i feel like now is even bigger after BloodBorne.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Meanwhile UC4 has been sitting in the top 20 for a bit (currently 22). It is gonna be big.
I think QB will be fine though. Nothing spectacular but maybe decent/okay.
Sorry, but i wanna ask a question.
This seem almost crazy to ask, but i think we can discuss about this.
Can Twilight Princess in March NPD sell more than Uncharted 4 in April NPD?
I mean, i know this seem crazy, a remastered on a dying console versus the bigger exclusive of the main console on the market, but all considering:
1 - On amazon Twilight Princess is an absolutely monster.
2 - It's 5 weeks VS 1 weeks
3 - March is bigger than April
4 - Uncharted bigger market is the Europe, for Zelda is the USA. We discuss about NPD sales, not Worldwide.
5 - Talking about the sales performance of the series, Majora's Mask has sold 515,000 in 3 weeks in February 2015.
It was on 3DS, so with a bigger userbase, but Zelda on home console is bigger, and Twilight Princess is literally the bigger Zelda game ever, so the conception is way bigger than Majora's Mask.
There is a good chance for Twilight Princess to sell well over 600,000, maybe even 700,000 in March.
Uncharted 3 sold over 800K in November NPD 2011, but in 4 weeks, and well, November with Black Friday and all...
Uncharted 4 has one week, and in one of the worse month of the year.
Opinion? Who will sell more, Zelda in March or Uncharted in April?
This seem almost crazy to ask, but i think we can discuss about this.
Can Twilight Princess in March NPD sell more than Uncharted 4 in April NPD?
I mean, i know this seem crazy, a remastered on a dying console versus the bigger exclusive of the main console on the market, but all considering:
1 - On amazon Twilight Princess is an absolutely monster.
2 - It's 5 weeks VS 1 weeks
3 - March is bigger than April
4 - Uncharted bigger market is the Europe, for Zelda is the USA. We discuss about NPD sales, not Worldwide.
5 - Talking about the sales performance of the series, Majora's Mask has sold 515,000 in 3 weeks in February 2015.
It was on 3DS, so with a bigger userbase, but Zelda on home console is bigger, and Twilight Princess is literally the bigger Zelda game ever, so the conception is way bigger than Majora's Mask.
There is a good chance for Twilight Princess to sell well over 600,000, maybe even 700,000 in March.
Uncharted 3 sold over 800K in November NPD 2011, but in 4 weeks, and well, November with Black Friday and all...
Uncharted 4 has one week, and in one of the worse month of the year.
Opinion? Who will sell more, Zelda in March or Uncharted in April?
Eh, between the Xbox version, Windows 10 version, and the $349 bundle it should be fine
Mr. Giggles
Member
How is GTA V still tracking ....wow, props to rockstar
Birgitte2004
Member
I know I'm stating the obvious, but even if "shooter games" still do better than expected on Xbox One, if the gap continues to grow there will come a time where that doesn't mean it outsells the PS4 version, it'll just be closer to 50/50 than the console ratio would indicate.
Whether we are at that time or not is hard to say, but I don't really think we are all that far. Even with the success of these games on Xbox One they weren't winning by that much.
Whether we are at that time or not is hard to say, but I don't really think we are all that far. Even with the success of these games on Xbox One they weren't winning by that much.
BruceLeeRoy
Banned
We get numbers for R6:Siege?
It indeed seems crazy. I can't imagine TW is even going to be high on the Top list let alone selling more than UC4.
What did WWHD sell?
It indeed seems crazy. I can't imagine TW is even going to be high on the Top list let alone selling more than UC4.
What did WWHD sell?
This DEFINITIVELY won't happen. Twilight Princess is gonna be big, i would be very surprised if is not #2 in March NPD ( The Division #1 of course)
123,000 in September NPD 2013. But keep in mind Wind Waker is one of the smaller Zelda, Twilight Princess is way bigger.
BruceLeeRoy
Banned
Yeah no way man. TW had a far larger backlash than WW ever did. WW is like the critical darling of Zelda to the media and gamers. Plus all I keep hearing about TW is how much of a marginal upgrade it is compared to WW.
This is how I think it will shake out:
1. The Division
2. Far Cry Primal
3. Call of Duty: Black Ops III
4. GTA5
5. Twilight Princess
6. Hitman
KillerMan91
Member
Original Majoras Mask sold less on N64 than Wind Waker on Gamecube and yet the remake opened at 515k when Wind Waker remake sold 123k like you mentioned. I think age and nostalgia factor play a way bigger role how these remakes sell than just how big the games were originally. I don't think remake of Twilight Princess is going to sell anywhere near the Majoras Mask debut.
Agreed.
Japanmanx3
Member
Always felt like this was the case for it...
This is you'r prediction for March?
Well, i honestly see a lot of imperfections here... at first, how can you think Far Cry primal will be second?
I mean, it will sell ok and all, but no way it outsell Black Ops III and GTA V in the second month.
What do you expect to sell TP in March NPD? Because i mean, Black Ops III and GTA V are big and all, but in the debut month a game like Zelda will easy outsell both.
The real reason why Majora Mask sold "only" less than 4 million on 64 is because:
1 - it was a 2000 game. The N64 was pretty gone at that time...
2 - It was an exclusives for an special strument on N64 ( sorry i can't remember the name), it was a similar case to 3DS and N3DS.
It was like an exclusive game that not all with an N64 could buy. So, the userbase was very, very small.
On 3DS, it showed the real sales power. A sales bower which could be at Ocarina of Time level ( with TP, the bigger Zelda ever)
Last, even if Amazon for software is not much accurate, a comparation with all 3 Zelda remake seem fair.
Month before launch:
August 2013 - OUT of TOP 100, Zelda Wind Waker
January 2015 - #7 Zelda Majora Mask
February 2016 - #6 Zelda Twilight Princess
Launch month:
September 2013 - #61 Zelda Wind Waker
February 2015 - #5 Zelda Majora's Mask
March 2016 - Not up yet, but on horly Zelda Twilight Princess is #4.
I mean, with Zelda Twilight Princess seem fair to say will sell more close to Majora Mask to Wind Waker.
You guys are gonna be literally impressed by Twilight Princess.
Abdiel can you share with us some early info about PS4 and XB1 ?
( Good news for Zelda )
tattooed_dwarf
Member
Can you share any insights how Quantum Break is raising interest on gamers?
BruceLeeRoy
Banned
I'm excited to play it as the only Zelda's I haven't played are TP and SS but WW is amazing to me. I love that game so much.
Far Cry will sell great I think. Its getting a crazy amount of marketing almost every channel I go to has it playing right now plus that series always does good numbers.
Zelda though doesn't seem likely. Your expecting the kind of numbers a remake like Halo The MCC could barely achieve let alone a remake of one of the more derided against Zeldas.
Seems like a stretch but your evidence is definitely compelling. It will be interesting to see for sure.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
It might be time for Capcom to go under or get bought. They have too many valuable IPs being wasted, neglected or misused. If Resident Evil 7 is not a hit I don't know what they have left. How many more games are they gonna remaster? It's getting late in the generation to be relying on that shit.
KillerMan91
Member
Actually bringing up Ocarina of Time 3DS version you are kinda proving my point. Original Ocarina of Time at least was way way bigger game than Majoras Mask and yet Majoras Mask remake debuted with almost double the sales. I actually think that exactly because audience for Majoras Mask originally was so limited (for reasons you stated) it had such a strong sales on 3DS. For many newer (or older) Zelda fans 3DS version was first time they were able to play the game. Twilight Princess is a lot more recent and already did huge numbers on GameCube and Wii. Not to mention a big reason behind of those huge numbers was the huge and wide Wii userbase that made the game sell to people that don't usually play Zelda games. With WiiU you only have core Nintendo audience. I still believe it will certainly have stronger numbers than Wind Waker remake but it's not touching Majoras Mask. Maybe something like 300-350k debut.
Do you remember how it compares to Majoras Mask?
Gunslinger
Member
What would be the biggest surprise for you guys? For me sfv making the top 10.
We can't be friends no more. Give me back my friendship bracelet.
Abdiel can you share with us some early info about PS4 and XB1 ?
( Good news for Zelda )
Ps4 has been handily leading for the month. There was that random promotion we did, but that was short lived.
Mm. It's still flying under the radar too much. Not generating enough buzz. They need to kick in the MS advertising machine.
TP is terrible. It's a boring game, with terrible dungeon items, drab design, every moment in wolf form is a chore. Almost soured me to the whole series. Awful mess. Who thought the light bugs or the howling was a good idea?
Far cry is amusing because people seem of two minds. No guns, but more far cry gameplay. Tp still sucks though. You're not missing anything.
Metalingus5150
Member
I actually feel like the split for Dark Souls 3 will be be bigger than that.
Bruno MB
Member
The biggest surprise for me would be Street Fighter V not making the top 10 because that would mean that it probably sold less than 200,000 units. It would be a horrible result, a big contender for the biggest bomb of 2016.
Gunslinger
Member
I wouldn't be surprised if it Sold less than 200k is NPD worldwide or NA only?