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NPD Sales Results for January 2016
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
Obliterator
Member
This is good info for SFV predictions
In other words it has a full week less worth of sales for the tracking period and do you believe in NA Street Fighter is as big as Mortal Kombat now days.
Ok so the debate hinges around whether cream rounds to the nearest thousand or the nearest 5 thousand then? Why not just ask someone with access to the figures to clarify?
Welfare
Member
98k was right.
Huh how do you know that? Did we get clarification for that?
I think it'll sell somewhere around 520k. Anything less than 450k would be extremely dissapointing IMHO. Street Fighter and MK aren't going to deviate too terribly much from the standard trends sales wise during opening month (by standard trends I mean the vast majority of the sales for the first month or so fall in opening week) so a difference of a week in tracking time is likely to have much less impact than the assumed 1/3 difference when it comes to sales.
I am hopeful for solid results with both SFV and Digimon Cyber Sleuth but time will tell.
Welfare
Member
Well, it got edited away, but Allan was right.
For who think Fates has no chance to outsell Street Fighter... The Series is a lot more famous than years ago, and Fates is looking for a very succesfull launch.
On Amazon is a beast, both SKUs in TOP 10, one At #4 and the other At #6, even if Amaxon is not accurate For SW that's impressive.
Keep in mind this game has sold over 350,000 in Japan the first week, which is Like >100k more than what Awakening sold.
Not saying Will outsell SF V, but that's not so impossible. For example SF V can sell under 300k, which could be very low but is posdible, and Fates over 300k.
On Amazon is a beast, both SKUs in TOP 10, one At #4 and the other At #6, even if Amaxon is not accurate For SW that's impressive.
Keep in mind this game has sold over 350,000 in Japan the first week, which is Like >100k more than what Awakening sold.
Not saying Will outsell SF V, but that's not so impossible. For example SF V can sell under 300k, which could be very low but is posdible, and Fates over 300k.
Street Fighter - 400,000
Far Cry Primal - 300,000
Fire Emblem Fates - 250,000
/ only Retail.
Ok. Fair enough. I'll take your word for it. Glad we got some clarification.
98k is a pretty massive gap for such a low performing month. Much bigger than pretty much anyone anticipated.
slavesnyder
Member
Since when are you a retail spy?
That's an estimate I estimate.
Woops My bad.
The problem is that My English is so bad that i don't understand the sense of some commenta some times... xD
Okay, so we're back to using 230K/130K/40K for predictions, then. (Gap is 98K, but I don't think we know that PS4 was exactly 230K. Therefore, we still round to nearest 5K, since we don't know exact numbers.) Just need a 3DS something ...
I swear trying to get 3DS figures is like pulling teeth every damn month. Really getting old.
So the gap is back to 100K?
I believe Mortal Kombat is more strong, but I think SF V can sell around 400k.
He's rouding because we don't have exact numbers.
CosmicQueso
Member
A platform in significant decline, with software share dominated by the 1st party company that makes it. A very protectionist and important company, the ire of which no one wants to attract.
spatenfloot
Member
Just assume it is zero from now until NX is released. Works for Vita!
I mean I get why it's always difficult to get figures for and it makes sense but its still tiresome having to constantly beg/wait every month for predictions.
Hah! Ouch.
Obliterator
Member
Combined Fates SKUs will be really really nice.
CosmicQueso
Member
I hear you. But it's going to get more difficult before it gets less.
The secrecy really is the most ridiculous thing. There's no reason for it. If anything, having this information public for the investment community makes a lot of sense. Unfortunately, that's not how it is.
yea I figured. *sigh*
Come on Cosmic... I Know you know the numbers... Just give us a Clue.
That's not cool. We shouldn't be pressuring specific insiders like that. They will provide the info if and when they are comfortable doing so.
yeah, that's because there isn't much demand here since handhelds sales are kinda boring lately. creamsugar doesn't talk anymore and George never did.
But we still need for the predictions results and for not break track record.
Every month I find myself wishing we didn't have to bother with 3DS for predictions. Just seems like nobody really cares about the sales in the platform anyway and seems out of place in the context of predictions wen the the other 3 platforms are all home consoles. At this point I fail to see how 3DS is any more relevant to the discussion/topic of sales than the WiiU is despite the latter having a lower footprint there seems to be significantly more interest and it's just more relevant to the context of the other platforms we are discussing.
Obliterator
Member
The absolute lock down on financial information in this industry is unquestionably the most aggravating part.
You are right.
I mean there is a reason: fear. The company in question is fearful of investors rightfully concluding the mobile market is leading to a rapid decline for the dedicated handheld market. When you have a company that is struggling with their home console product and has traditionally had a very dependable revenue stream from mobile of course they're going to be hesitant to show numbers that cast the future of that revenue stream in doubt.
My major qualm is that it seems like the only reason the numbers are even brought up or asked for anymore are specifically because they are needed for predictions. Nobody here seems to care at all otherwise. So it sort of begs the question as to why they are still a part of our predictions. I know that Donny says it's because it's a more relevant chunk of sales share wise but I'd argue that the difficulty of obtaining figures, current mindshare and relevance in comparison to other included platforms should also be factors in consideration here.
Obliterator
Member
The thing is, no one in this industry wants you to talk about their numbers. No one.
CosmicQueso
Member
Let me tell you about this amazing new metric. By using it, companies can publish really big numbers, and yet at the same time it conveys no actual useful information!
Can anyone guess what that metric is called?
Sure. But the common investor isn't given the same access to information. Anyways, huge sidetrack, but it's all very silly.
Welfare
Member
Obliterator
Member
It's just so damn frustrating. In film you know the budget of the film, what it makes at the box office, revenue per region, everything. Its mostly open book.
In gaming though....LOCK IT THE FUCK DOWN.
In gaming though....LOCK IT THE FUCK DOWN.
True but it seems like 3DS numbers are a special sort of sticking point. I'd wager it's for the reasons I mention.
Regardless yea I agree the whole secreting nature of sales in the industry is weird especially in the context of entertainment when you look at the very public data available for movies, books and music. Digital game sales are looking like they will complicate and obfuscate things even further which is incredibly discouraging. It's truly bizarre how video games are such a huge exception to the trend of open data in the sector.
yeah, even Nielsen BookScan and SoundScan is more easy to find some data. NPD is very restricted in recent years.
slavesnyder
Member
Maybe we should exclude DS from the guessing game. Not cool but what can we do?
On the other hand we get WiiU numbers from the same company. Where's the logic?
On the other hand we get WiiU numbers from the same company. Where's the logic?
We have Wii U more easily because is a home console, so we get the number together with PS4 and XBO.
But one way or another 3DS number is appearing for months, so let's wait this will be the case again.
theprodigy
Member
We only get Wii U because it comes with the other two consoles.
Maybe creamsugar should start throwing in the 3DS with the pie chart lol
slavesnyder
Member
Didn't he do this in the good old times?
Don't know how his access to data is organised. Maybe it really is two parts, console and handhelds, and he only has a grip on the first one.
ethomaz
Banned
I can say it depends....
If you sell better than others then everybody wants you talk about the numbers (eg. Apple)
If you sell less than others then no one wants you to talk about numbers (eg. MS)
MS was pretty open with 360 numbers.
Welfare
Member
Cream has done pies for handhelds before. They were separate to the console pie.
Handhelds (3DS and Vita) were down 21% over January 2015. Vita is kind of unknown, but 10K seems to be a reasonable guess month-to-month on it (unless it's in sold out state). 21% decline vs. January 2015 - 10K for Vita => ~70K. That also fits the idea that it's below predictions for the month. That + some vague head nodding from that guy in the corner (don't look!) leads me to be okay with 70K for 3DS for the month. (^_^)
Now to resurrect the old code for dealing with WIU for units only ...
Now to resurrect the old code for dealing with WIU for units only ...
serversurfer
Member
Perhaps we should just skip that part, and trust that reasonably accurate numbers will be used?
slavesnyder
Member
Guess you are right. Anyway, no nagging here, creamsugar, do what suits you and whenever you feel good about it.
We are always fine with it.