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[TheGreatDave]

another month goes by and I'm getting more and more scared as a hardcore gamer. The impact of the casual gamer scares me.

The top selling game this month was COD4. You don't have much to worry about. Shit like Transformers doesn't stop good movies being made, and casual games and audiences aren't going to replace a more hardcore group. You have to remember that the vast majority of gamers have always been casual in their mindset; you don't sell 120 million odd PS2s to hardcore gamers only.

 

[Nocebo]

:lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol

Holy crap

:lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol

You have OFFICIALLY confirmed that you fail at reading english. Nowhere in ANY of my posts did I say Wii software has sold a particular number.

In his defense your sentence was gramatically retarded.

He used it to give us an estimate on how Wii software was doing without going the

"without going the" what the hell does that even mean? It would make more sense if you said : "without saying : 'the wii officially etc.' "

 

[Lobster]

In his defense your sentence was gramatically retarded.

"without going the" what the hell does that even mean? It would make more sense if you said : "without saying : 'the wii officially etc.' "

Oh cmon. Atleast its understandable.

 

[Chumly]

In his defense your sentence was gramatically retarded.

"without going the" what the hell does that even mean? It would make more sense if you said : "without saying : 'the wii officially etc.' "

Sorry wasnt exactly going to proofread a response towards him. I didnt realize i was going to need perfect grammer to make him understand.

 

[Tideas]

The top selling game this month was COD4. You don't have much to worry about. Shit like Transformers doesn't stop good movies being made, and casual games and audiences aren't going to replace a more hardcore group. You have to remember that the vast majority of gamers have always been casual in their mindset; you don't sell 120 million odd PS2s to hardcore gamers only.

ppl tend to forget that. The PS2 is arguably more casual than the Wii, and has the numbers to back it up, although that's a lil unfair since the Wii is only a year old

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Even if the results aren't true, the best thing about Matt's Wii software comment is that it's making people acknowledge that there's more to NPD and success than the top 10.

 

[AnimeTheme]

You have OFFICIALLY confirmed that you fail at reading english. Nowhere in ANY of my posts did I say Wii software has sold a particular number.

It's not like your English is really anything better. I just said "Let's NOT try to think about getting". I didn't say you actually did (but seriously you can't stop people from wondering you may really have this attempt in mind with your words).

People firmly believe Matt's sayings because he gets NPD data!

Jesus.

He has NPD data yeah. No one would cast a doubt if he just quoted the solid NPD figures, but the 10:1 thing is just a "spin". Maybe we can firmly believe Sony PR and their spinnings because they get NPD and all those official data too.

 

[Nocebo]

Sorry wasnt exactly going to proofread a response towards him. I didnt realize i was going to need perfect grammer to make him understand.

I just thought it was rather ironic that you call him stupid for not being able to read English when you're unable to write it. :lol
Also, a butchered sentence, like yours, can definitely throw people off if they don't speak English natively. So instead of flying off the handle, maybe you can try to resolve a misunderstading with maturity? Just a suggestion.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

It's not like your English is really anything better. I just said "Let's NOT try to think about getting". I didn't say you actually did (but seriously you can't stop people from wondering you may really have this attempt in mind with your words).



He has NPD data yeah. No one would cast a doubt if he just quoted the solid NPD figures, but the 10:1 thing is just a "spin". Maybe we can firmly believe Sony PR and their spinnings because they get NPD and all those official data too.

I think the reason people are jumping on you here is because you haven't made it clear why we shouldn't believe him. Do you think he's outright lying, or misconstruing fact?

 

[Vagabundo]

Sorry wasnt exactly going to proofread a response towards him. I didnt realize i was going to need perfect grammer to make him understand.

Grammar lubricates the gears of understanding.

 

[AnimeTheme]

I think the reason people are jumping on you here is because you haven't made it clear why we shouldn't believe him. Do you think he's outright lying, or misconstruing fact?

"Wii SW > 360 SW" as Matt said clearly tells the message, and should be believable (unless someone can disprove it otherwise). However, the 10:1 thing means little useful other than giving a vague impression that Wii SW sold well. We don't exactly know how he calculated it which may affect the accuracy (such as roundups or inclusions of Wii Sports/bundles), so any attempt to extrapolate it to get other figures is basically pointless, and as discussed before, this monthly tie ratio is not really a clear indication of the change of LTD tie ratio trend (mainly due to hardware shortage).

 

[Version 3.0]

"Wii SW > 360 SW" as Matt said clearly tells the message, and should be believable (unless someone can disprove it otherwise). However, the 10:1 thing means little useful other than giving a vague impression that Wii SW sold well. We don't exactly know how he calculated it which may affect the accuracy (such as roundups or inclusions of Wii Sports/bundles), so any attempt to extrapolate it to get other figures is basically pointless, and as discussed before, this monthly tie ratio is not really a clear indication of the change of LTD tie ratio trend (mainly due to hardware shortage).

We do know some things, because we know it's NPD data he's speaking of. Therefore, it does not include Wii Sports. It does include bundles in this case, because there are no official Nintendo bundles going on--store bundles are simply individual sales that the store is forcing on the customer. It also does not include Link's Crossbow Training (because NPD tracks it as the Wii Zapper, an accessory), but does include Wii Play (because NPD tracks it as software).

We don't know about rounding, true, so that means the Wii sold between 12.825 million and 14.04 million units of software in December. That's using the already rounded 1.35 million hardware units times 9.5 and times 10.4. No reason to go beyond one decimal, I figure.

That's not exact, but it's hardly a "vague impression".

But, like all NPD data this year, it's fairly pointless. We didn't get this info every month, so it's impossible to see whether this was a linear overtake based on the closing hardware gap, or a holiday spike that was larger for the Wii than the 360. Unless we get this info next month, I suppose.

 

[donny2112]

If I paid for NPD data (lulz), could I reveal them anonymously on GAF or would that get GAF in a fuckload of trouble for just having those numbers?

You'd get in trouble. You could still share them, though.

Even if the results aren't true, the best thing about Matt's Wii software comment is that it's making people acknowledge that there's more to NPD and success than the top 10.

Always good to realize there's a much larger picture we aren't seeing anymore, so conclusions drawn off of what we do get are problematic.

Maybe we can firmly believe Sony PR and their spinnings because they get NPD and all those official data too.

I believe Sony's numbers are true, from a certain point of view. They just usually don't match up to NPD periods/coverage areas (and/or are generally vague) except in the monthly NPD response.

 

[Captain Smoker]

It's a real tragedy when we don't have full NPD numbers to actually discuss this.

Eventually we could get a Top15 for the next month, would be nice to have a little bit more data. ;__;

 

[liuelson]

Always good to realize there's a much larger picture we aren't seeing anymore, so conclusions drawn off of what we do get are problematic.

Do you think it would be feasible / reasonable to develop a model of the different console userbases that might help us understand the larger picture given the small sample data we do get?

For example, we could incorporate a "Christmas" multiplier that varies by console according to what we know this past Christmas. We could incorporate an "outside top 10" multiplier that varies by console according to what we know about LTD game sales on those consoles compared to what we see in the top 10.

That way, we could use the top 10 data to generate some rough estimates of monthly and annual trends. It's still guesswork, but at least it would be educated guesswork...

 

[donny2112]

Do you think it would be feasible / reasonable to develop a model of the different console userbases that might help us understand the larger picture given the small sample data we do get?

If we had a Top 50/100 each month, it might be enough to get a reasonable ballpark guess, but I'd think the top 10 is probably too small a dataset to know for sure how the overall market is doing.

 

[AndersTheSwede]

An interesting observation in Matt Matthews neg-gen.biz article (http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=8750&Itemid=2&limit=1&limitstart=0) was this graph and segment:

From December 2006 to December 2007, the Xbox 360 curve dropped by about 1.7 units. That means that the Wii cut the Xbox 360 lead by about 1.7 units in that time period. The average rate of change on the PlayStation 3 graph shows that during that same period the Wii gained a lead of more than 3.7 million systems over Sony's console.

From a mathematical point of view, these graphs are enticingly linear, enough so that one is tempted to make simple predictions based on them. Given the volatile market, especially with price drops and new models introduced as late as October 2007, the situation could change dramatically at the beginning of 2008. However, should the trends on this graph remain valid for the next 6 or 12 months, here are the estimated relative LTD figures:

* By mid-year 2008, PlayStation 3 would be behind the Wii by about 6 million systems and the Xbox 360 would still be ahead of the Wii by 1 million systems.
* By the end of 2008, PlayStation 3 would be behind the Wii by around 7.9 million systems and the Xbox 360 would essentially be tied with the Wii."

After relinquishing the sales lead to the Wii the 360 has nevertheless managed to keep the sales gap with the Wii from getting any higher. Now MS really needs to move and cut prices to keep their lead in America (they're going to need it).

 

[kottila]

From Wired

Matt Cassamassina over at IGN has access to the full set of NPD data, not just the top tens, and he said something very interesting on their last podcast: Wii software actually outsold Xbox 360 software this month.
I've contacted NPD for confirmation, but so far all they've told me is that on the list of Top 100 software titles for December, 20 Wii games charted, versus 18 Xbox 360 games.
Even more importantly, only 5 of those 20 games were from Nintendo.

 

[Lobster]

From Wired

Mhm.

Well its obviously confirming Wii Software > 360 Software..now we need to know probably upto top 100.

 

[AniHawk]

From Wired

Sounds like Nintendo should go third party to make up those remaining 15.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

If we had a Top 50/100 each month, it might be enough to get a reasonable ballpark guess, but I'd think the top 10 is probably too small a dataset to know for sure how the overall market is doing.

Definitely too little to work with. If for some reason we saw #11 and not #10, we could get a completely different projection.

 

[schuelma]

From Wired

Interesting

 

[Stumpokapow]

Definitely too little to work with. If for some reason we saw #11 and not #10, we could get a completely different projection.

Top 20 per console per month would be substantially more useful than Top 100 overall IMO, although they are the same cardinal number of data points. We know a whole lot from the August/September top 10 per console per month leaks that is useful in ballparking some of the unknown sales figures.

Plus, top 20 per console per month would guarantee a presence for the consoles whose software sales are weaker... as well as answering questions like the Wii 3rd party question.

 

[Captain Smoker]

From Wired

Wow.

Remember, every title till rank 121 has sold over 100.000 units.

 

[egocrata]

So we can agree that the Wii is a monster, both hardware and software, it is not a Wii Sports machine and it is on the path of smacking all haters silly in a waggle-full match of Wii Boxing ownage?

Because that Wired link points to that.

 

[Captain Smoker]

Top 20 per console per month would be substantially more useful than Top 100 overall IMO, although they are the same cardinal number of data points. We know a whole lot from the August/September top 10 per console per month leaks that is useful in ballparking some of the unknown sales figures.

Plus, top 20 per console per month would guarantee a presence for the consoles whose software sales are weaker... as well as answering questions like the Wii 3rd party question.

You´re right.

We must ask sonycowboy if it´s possible to get more data, a Top10 is really too little, a Top10 per console would be really great.

 

[Sharp]

So we can agree that the Wii is a monster, both hardware and software, it is not a Wii Sports machine and it is on the path of smacking all haters silly in a waggle-full match of Wii Boxing ownage?

Because that Wired link points to that.

No, actually, in the Wired link, after Chris suggested that perhaps Wii software had outsold 360 software for the month, there were several responses to the effect that even if this were the case, it was just more evidence that casuals only want licensed games and Wii Sports-esque waggle-a-thons because they did not buy Zack & Wiki over Carnival Games.

 

[AnimeTheme]

Even more importantly, only 5 of those 20 games were from Nintendo.

Mario Galaxy
Wii Play
Mario Party 8
Zelda?
Metro Prime 3?

Anyways, how many Wii games had Nintento published in 2007?

 

[Sharp]

Mario Galaxy
Wii Play
Mario Party 8
Zelda?
Metro Prime 3?

Anyways, how many Wii games had Nintento published in 2007?

At least one every month, though I don't remember their exact schedule. But the fact remains that at least fifteen third-party games sold over 100k on the Wii, and we know that of them some sold significantly more than that. We know that both Mario & Sonic and Guitar Hero III sold better than Mario Party 8, so I'm not sure how your list is working anyway, unless you're just listing Nintendo titles that were potentially top 20.

 

[speculawyer]

From Wired

Well, the Wii does tend to skew to a younger audience, so it will have the biggest boost from xmas as parents buy their kids Wii software.

OK, now go ahead and flame me.

 

[ksamedi]

Well, the Wii does tend to skew to a younger audience, so it will have the biggest boost from xmas as parents buy their kids Wii software.

OK, now go ahead and flame me.

So now it went from a casual gaming system to a kids system. Interesting.

 

[CitizenCope]

From Wired

So nobody noticed the BJ's in Ring King?:lol

 

[botticus]

No, actually, in the Wired link, after Chris suggested that perhaps Wii software had outsold 360 software for the month, there were several responses to the effect that even if this were the case, it was just more evidence that casuals only want licensed games and Wii Sports-esque waggle-a-thons because they did not buy Zack & Wiki over Carnival Games.

But are the people responding to him quoting NPD data or their assumptions on what those 15 third-party games are?

(and let's face it, to an outsider is Zack & Wiki any less of a waggle-fest than Carnival Games? It just wasn't advertised on Nickolodeon)

 

[wayward archer]

So we can agree that the Wii is a monster, both hardware and software, it is not a Wii Sports machine and it is on the path of smacking all haters silly in a waggle-full match of Wii Boxing ownage?

Because that Wired link points to that.

You should read the whole article, two of the editors in the conversation don't buy into that at all and give solid reasons why.

Basically what sold and when it sold matches the profile of clueless gift givers buying software and not gamers buying software, and that it will take several months of consistent sales for the wii to lose it's reputation as a poor platform for a 3rd party to invest in. One of them even gives an anecdote of a developer sitting on an original IP wii horror game that as of mid-january '08 can't find a publisher on the wii because nobody wants to risk any money into the 3rd party wii software market.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

No, actually, in the Wired link, after Chris suggested that perhaps Wii software had outsold 360 software for the month, there were several responses to the effect that even if this were the case, it was just more evidence that casuals only want licensed games and Wii Sports-esque waggle-a-thons because they did not buy Zack & Wiki over Carnival Games.

I think my feelings on this are accurately represented in the last paragraph:

I'm going to have to side with Chris on software. Yes, the casual gamers make up the majority of the Wii's market. But I can't tell you how many people I know who own a PS2 just for the sports titles; and obviously the PS2's legacy isn't all sports and other casual titles.
.
The 3rd parties are creating a self-fulfilling prophacy. They refuse to take risks on the Wii, claiming they won't sell, then feel vindicated when only casuals games sell on the system.
.
Plenty of non-casual gamers want more edgy games for the Wii. But by the same token, we often know what games we will buy months before they are released. We aren't going to have the wool pulled over our eyes very easily.

To be perfectly honest, I believe third parties know that the Wii can sell hardcore titles, but they don't want to be the ones that risk the bank to get a title out there.

I' m staunchly of the belief that This generation will play out for the Wii largely like it did for the DS; Japanese development will lead the 3rd party charge proving there's a market, followed by big business American 3rd parties and then the smaller but still reputable American devs. The American companies will only dive in when they know there's money to be made, especially when the 360 is chugging along so routinely.

 

[radjago]

So now it went from a casual gaming system to a kids system. Interesting.

FYI: It's both.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Well, the Wii does tend to skew to a younger audience, so it will have the biggest boost from xmas as parents buy their kids Wii software.

OK, now go ahead and flame me.

I'm not really seeing what you're basing that "skews to a younger audience" thing on, especially with what software we've seen being pushed by the system. Wii is more attractive to children than the 360 is to be sure, but does that qualify it as a kids' system?

 

[biggersmaller]

So now it went from a casual gaming system to a kids system. Interesting.

It's both. It really, really is. It's sold enough to become both.

 

[ksamedi]

You should read the whole article, two of the editors in the conversation don't buy into that at all and give solid reasons why.

Basically what sold and when it sold matches the profile of clueless gift givers buying software and not gamers buying software, and that it will take several months of consistent sales for the wii to lose it's reputation as a poor platform for a 3rd party to invest in. One of them even gives an anecdote of a developer sitting on an original IP wii horror game that as of mid-january '08 can't find a publisher on the wii because nobody wants to risk any money into the 3rd party wii software market.

Oh really? Since when are third parties selling poor on the Wii? A new excuse everytime the Wii software is selling is kind of sad.

 

[D.Lo]

I' m staunchly of the belief that This generation will play out for the Wii largely like it did for the DS; Japanese development will lead the 3rd party charge proving there's a market, followed by big business American 3rd parties and then the smaller but still reputable American devs. The American companies will only dive in when they know there's money to be made, especially when the 360 is chugging along so routinely.

What Western developers have jumped on the DS in a big way even now? I look at my DS collection and the only good western developed games are funded by Japanese companies anyway (Contra 4, Metroid Prime Hunters). The only exception I can think of is Puzzle Quest, which was by a smaller dev, was better on PSP and is now out on everything. Assassins Creed DS looks like Ubisoft's best ever effort on the platform, and it's still unlikely to be anywhere near the best Japanese efforts, and it's three years too late.

Western developers have never taken handheld gaming seriously, apart from the first 1.5 years of the PSP when they thought it would be a PS2 style cash-cow that would dominate the market.

 

[biggersmaller]

Oh really? Since when are third parties selling poor on the Wii? A new excuse everytime the Wii software is selling is kind of sad.

The ratio of sold Wii systems to sold 3rd party software is poor when compared with past systems in the same boat. The is not an "excuse" it's rather an observation of industry direction.

 

[ksamedi]

The ratio of sold Wii systems tosold 3rd party software is poor when compared with past systems in the same boat. The is not an "excuse" it's rather an observation of the industry direction.

The third party support is also poor compared to past systems in the same boat. Nobody knew the Wii was going to be such a big succes. The bigger and better games will come late 2008 or in 2009 because the quality games take time to make.

 

[biggersmaller]

The third party support is also poor compared to past systems in the same boat. Nobody knew the Wii was going to be such a big succes. The bigger and better games will come late 2008 or in 2009 because the quality games take time to make.

Poor in terms of quality or sheer volume?

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

What Western developers have jumped on the DS in a big way even now? I look at my DS collection and the only good western developed games are funded by Japanese companies anyway (Contra 4, Metroid Prime Hunters). The only exception I can think of is Puzzle Quest, which was by a smaller dev, was better on PSP and is now out on everything. Assassins Creed DS looks like Ubisoft's best ever effort on the platform, and it's still unlikely to be anywhere near the best Japanese efforts, and it's three years too late.

Western developers have never taken handheld gaming seriously, apart from the first 1.5 years of the PSP when they thought it would be a PS2 style cash-cow that would dominate the market.

I generally agree. However, the minimal American DS support we're seeing now is quite opposed to the veritable wasteland of development that was on the DS from Americans when it launched. Not everything is 1:1, but I generally expect the pattern to be the same.

 

[Deku]

I don't have a 'hard' time believing the numbers. I think some concrete evidence of the supposed statistic would be welcome. WIRED's analysis certainly seems consistent with the claim but it's still somewhat obscured.

Oh really? Since when are third parties selling poor on the Wii? A new excuse everytime the Wii software is selling is kind of sad.

The dismissive attitude taken can become a little grating, coming from owners of platforms with gaping problems of their own. The best analysis I've seen is that all 3 platforms essentially have high negatives that give other people a reason to pounce. Objectively speaking the Wii really needs more variety. Whether it can become a DS is a question that will be answered this year.

 

[donny2112]

Can we keep poor third-party/core game sales for the Wii discussion in the Media-Create threads, please. There it 1) is relevant and 2) has people discussing it who actually understand what they're discussing with numbers to back them up.

Core game sales are obviously just fine on the Wii in the U.S. Third-party sales are a big step up from what the GameCube was seeing at the same point in its lifespan in the U.S. "Isn't it supposed to be like the PS2 since it's the market leader?" No system out now will come close to selling for third-parties, both in the U.S. and worldwide, like the PS2, so trying to compare any current system to the PS2 for third-party software is a fool's errand.

 

[biggersmaller]

I generally agree. However, the minimal American DS support we're seeing now is quite opposed to the veritable wasteland of development that was on the DS from Americans when it launched. Not everything is 1:1, but I generally expect the pattern to be the same.

You know; I've always wondered why there hasn't been smaller, perhaps even independently funded start-up devs working on the platform (read: Ninjatown).

Is there a massive tax on dev?

 

[ksamedi]

Poor in terms of quality or sheer volume?

Quality ofcourse, I don't think there is a problem in terms of sheer volume. Every publisher basically rushed there Wii product.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

You know; I've always wondered why there hasn't been smaller, perhaps even independently funded start-up devs working on the platform (read: Ninjatown).

Is there a massive tax on dev?

Not really, Wii devkits are drastically cheap at 2K a pop.

The bottleneck i've heard is that Nintendo can't get them out to the smaller devs fast enough.

 

[Grecco]

So now its

Well it sells software from third party but its kiddy software!

:lol Oh Gaf