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[Jomjom]

Yes, but Mario Kart 8 also had a ridiculously lucrative "free game at launch" deal which attracted a ton of people who wouldn't normally buy Mario Kart at that time period. And, Nintendo launched a Mario Kart 8 hardware bundle for even greater exposure along with a downloadable version in the Nintendo eShop...Double Dash was only available as a standalone retail copy.

So as I told sörine, the unique circumstances surrounding Mario Kart 8's launch is at least partially equal to a holiday period. If it were just an ordinary software launch, that's one thing. But Nintendo really put a lot of investment into this launch...similar to an investment they would put into a holiday season launch.

So the comparisons aren't all that unreasonable. You can also see a comparison to Mario Kart's last mid-year launch (Mario Kart Wii) a couple of posts above yours, where Mario Kart 8 is dramatically underperforming it.

Yup I normally don't buy MK games at all. Last one I bought was the N64 one and I've owned every Nintendo console.

I bought 5 copies of mk8 because of the free game deal. Why? Because they were trading into best buy and GameStop for almost twice what I paid for them. Making the bonus games free and doubling the store credit I had. Lots of people on other forums did the same.

 

[Aquamarine]

Was Double Dash's drop in January similar to MK8's in August?

Mario Kart: Double Dash dropped from 730K (December 2003) to 106K (January 2004) to 81K (February 2004).

Mario Kart 8 had sold more than 106K in the equivalent period, but its most recent 66K for August is underperforming Double Dash's 81K.


Mario Kart: Double Dash sold 68K in March 2004, and I don't have faith that Mario Kart 8 will perform at its level.

 

[theprodigy]

I'd be surprised if XB1 will even be at 5.5 million by the end of the month :/

Unless it completely tanks this September, I doubt that.

 

[orochi91]

Unless it completely tanks this September, I doubt that.

I'm not willing to bet higher than 5.75 million total by the end of September.
10 million sold by the end of the holiday season.

 

[Square2015]

If I may I'd like to summarize the situation with Nintendo's past consoles at this point in time, in comparing WiiU with its predecessors.

Let's go back to each generation. What was the situation in each previous cycle...

August 2008:
Wii production has been ramped up, monthly output doubled starting in March. Sales began slowing a bit do in part to school but also the hype of the one-two-three-punch killer app releases in the spring began to wane. The Wii still doubled the nearest console XB360 (which only sold a very healthy 195k by comparison ). I have written in my notes the Wii was still scarce at retail...
SW:
The LTD of the one-two-three punches for August were WiiFit at no. 4 for the month surpassing 1.8m sold, Mario Kart Wii (at no. 5) with 2.7m, and Smash Bros. Brawl which had a record breaking debut in March (2.7m) was now at an incredible 3.5m sold! All outside the Christmas season! Such high sales figures have never been seen in the US market outside of the holiday season.

NoA continued their mario sports titles for the Wii with the debut of Super Mario Sluggers, this month. It sold around 110k debuting at no 11.


August 2003
The Gamecube. In the battle for second place it was becoming more clear the GC was losing and at its more affordable price ($139) against the XB ($199). The XB outsold GC 133k to 100k respectively for the month, still fairly neck-and-neck with a much rumored 'DC style price drop' to be announced soon. Some of us on GAF were holding out on a major comeback (Gahiggity, remember him?)

What GAF was obsessing over?
The sequal to the incredibly revered Soul Calibur, was released this month, on all three consoles, each with an exclusive character. Hope sprang forth that a GC comeback was possible with the Gamecube [Link!] version outselling the other versions nicely.
SW:
Soul Calibur II moved a sweet 180k in its first week, beating out the XB (122k) and PS2 (120k) versions.
F-Zero GX debuted cool this month, in its first week selling 65k. While last month's Mario Golf: toadstool tour release swung past the 150k mark. Celda's highly anticipated release back in March was now at above 1.2m and Wario World's June release fades fast with about 112k moved.


August 1998:
Official price drop month. Not to be left behind when either Sony or NoA announced a drop, a day or so later (IGN64) would report the competition was following suit. The race was still about a 55-45 race. The N64 was nearing 8m sold and the PSX passed the 10m barrier this month! The limited price drops in June were made nation-wide in late August for both N64 & PSX. Speaking of, the PSX sold 261k to N64's 183k this month.
SW:
Wrestling was all the rage in '98. WWF WarZone topped the charts with the N64 version debuting at a respectible 234k. The summer blockbuster, Banjo-Kazooie, had surpassed 650k at this point. Another third party hit Mission:Impossible broke 200k in its second month while the recently released Waialae Golf surpassed 110k. The major March release, Yoshi's Story, has reached 700k and is likely to be added to the already impressive list of million sellers (about 8 up to this point) on the N64. To the ire of many gamers the N64's first RPG, Quest 64, a June release, had ranked in over 180k in sales by the end of summer. Desparation for a Nintendo RPG no doubt pushed sales, after the success of FFVII the previous fall (which was at 1.3m at this time).

Can Zelda 64 pull a DKC and save the N64 against PSX this Christmas... we were all wondering this 16 years ago...


August 1993:
The month before Mortal Kombat's release. The SNES had been outsold by Genesis EVERY month this year up through August according to NPD figures (source=Tom Kalinske PR). While SNES was the slight victor of 1992 [by 10% estimates from NPD) thanks to Street Fighter II, the slow summer releases and a sleak newly designed Genesis unit (Genesis 2) released Aug 1st were looking to make 1993 the year of Sega. NoA had no major killer apps for the holiday season other than these exclusives: NHL Stanley Cup, Super Empire Strikes Back, and Secret of Mana. Compare this to Sonic Spinball, Joe Montana 94, and Eternal Champions. In addition to these non-exclusives: Street Fighter II- sp champ ed, Mortal Kombat, Aladdin, Jurassic Park, Madden 94, TMNT Tournament Fighters, and Tecmo Super Bowl.
SW:
This month saw a bit of a comeback from Nintendo with these Aug releases: Street Fighter II Turbo - expected to sell 250k opening weekend [source=Capcom PR] and Super Mario All-Stars. Other noticeable releases: Final Fight 2 (probably underperforming). Summer releases such as Battlemaniacs, Vegas Stakes, Mario is Missing, and Yoshi's Cookie just weren't bringing in excitement for SNES. March's major release, Star Fox, had cooled off quite a bit since it's 1 million* first week shipment [*source=NoA PR]. (I project sales were around 900k by this time...but that's just my projection, that number is not official)

 

[Brad Grenz]

So how close do we think PS4 will be to 12 million at the end of the month? & will Xbox One finally make it past the 6 million mark?

Pretty close on the PS4. Not even close for the Xbox One. It probably won't go over 6M until November.

 

[Joeys_Rattata]

Well, this isn't some new phenomenon. Do you know how everyone's Dad seems to have dated taste in music that no longer represents the mainstream? How 40 year olds of every generation think the new music that kids are listening to is "just noise?" How kids today read books like Twilight and Vampire Academy instead of Roald Dahl or Gertrude Warner? How kids today aren't interested in 2D animation films any more?

Yes, it is reasonable to assume that your taste in games will fall out fashion and eventually be replaced by stuff that you hate. That is not particular to you, or to gaming, though. Welcome to the wonderful world of "you're getting older."

I know this is a few days late, but I kind of don't agree with this. Yes, kids are playing more on smart phones than on consoles, but I don't think it's just the natural cycle of things, like tastes in music. The natural cycle of things is kids not understanding the appeal of Super Mario World and other platformers while singing the praises of Minecraft and sandbox games.

I think kids are gravitating toward smartphones because the console market and hardcore market are acting like they don't exist. In the last eight years, what big kid/family friendly games have been released on PS3 and 360? Big as in receive a big marketing push that traditional hardcore games get. Skylanders, Disney Infinity, Kinect Sports, maybe LBP and maaaaybe Ratchet and Clank?

Meanwhile Call of Duty, Resident Evil, GTA, Destiny, Titanfall, Batman Arkham games, Battlefield, Assassin's Creed, Halo, Skyrim, etc. are being released to fanfare and praise and huge marketing campaigns. When people think of console gaming, they think of those games. Not just hardcore gamers, but casual gamers too.

Imagine if you were 8 years old and you looked at consoles, and you only saw Resident Evil, Silent Hill, Doom, Quake, Goldeneye, Perfect Dark, and Mortal Kombat, would you think that was a place for you? Even if you did, I highly doubt your parents would have. They would have gotten you some other device or toy that they deemed acceptable for someone you age.

Yes, I know Nintendo existed and have continued to pump out kid friendly and family friendly games, but Nintendo can't sustain a healthy young audience on their own. Even if they managed to pull in new, younger kids into the console market, a few of those kids are inevitably going to get tired of Mario and Zelda. It shouldn't be up to only Nintendo to keep those kids entertained on consoles, but the entire industry is acting like it's Nintendo's job and only Nintendo's job. No one else can do it because they're too busy throwing millions of dollars at an advertising campaign for another Call of Duty.

The more developers focus on the 20 to 30 year old audience, the more they're ruining chances at success in the future. When today's 20 year olds get older and have kids and get a good job, they'll have less time for gaming. That means less money spent on games and consoles. Those people should be replaced by a new generation of kids who grew up on consoles. But they won't be replaced by a new generation of kids because kids for the last decade have been relegated to handheld gaming and now smartphone gaming.

I still think kids can come back to consoles, but it'll take a massive shift in console philosophy. Development costs are going to have to come down. Hardware is going to have to be more affordable. Developers are going to have to start making games that appeal to kids and families and actually market them. Like, treat them like they're a AAA hardcore franchise like Assassin's Creed.

 

[Mory Dunz]

If I may I'd like to summarize the situation with Nintendo's past consoles at this point in time, in comparing WiiU with its predecessors.

Let's go back to each generation. What was the situation in each previous cycle...

August 2008:
Wii production has been ramped up, monthly output doubled starting in March. Sales began slowing a bit do in part to school but also the hype of the one-two-three-punch killer app releases in the spring began to wane. The Wii still doubled the nearest console XB360 (which only sold a very healthy 195k by comparison ). I have written in my notes the Wii was still scarce at retail...
SW:
The LTD of the one-two-three punches for August were WiiFit at no. 4 for the month surpassing 1.8m sold, Mario Kart Wii (at no. 5) with 2.7m, and Smash Bros. Brawl which had a record breaking debut in March (2.7m) was now at an incredible 3.5m sold! All outside the Christmas season! Such high sales figures have never been seen in the US market outside of the holiday season.

NoA continued their mario sports titles for the Wii with the debut of Super Mario Sluggers, this month. It sold around 110k debuting at no 11.


August 2003
The Gamecube. In the battle for second place it was becoming more clear the GC was losing and at its more affordable price ($139) against the XB ($199). The XB outsold GC 133k to 100k respectively for the month, still fairly neck-and-neck with a much rumored 'DC style price drop' to be announced soon. Some of us on GAF were holding out on a major comeback (Gahiggity, remember him?)

What GAF was obsessing over?
The sequal to the incredibly revered Soul Calibur, was released this month, on all three consoles, each with an exclusive character. Hope sprang forth that a GC comeback was possible with the Gamecube [Link!] version outselling the other versions nicely.
SW:
Soul Calibur II moved a sweet 180k in its first week, beating out the XB (122k) and PS2 (120k) versions.
F-Zero GX debuted cool this month, in its first week selling 65k. While last month's Mario Golf: toadstool tour release swung past the 150k mark. Celda's highly anticipated release back in March was now at above 1.2m and Wario World's June release fades fast with about 112k moved.


August 1998:
Official price drop month. Not to be left behind when either Sony or NoA announced a drop, a day or so later (IGN64) would report the competition was following suit. The race was still about a 55-45 race. The N64 was nearing 8m sold and the PSX passed the 10m barrier this month! The limited price drops in June were made nation-wide in late August for both N64 & PSX. Speaking of, the PSX sold 261k to N64's 183k this month.
SW:
Wrestling was all the rage in '98. WWF WarZone topped the charts with the N64 version debuting at a respectible 234k. The summer blockbuster, Banjo-Kazooie, had surpassed 650k at this point. Another third party hit Mission:Impossible broke 200k in its second month while the recently released Waialae Golf surpassed 110k. The major March release, Yoshi's Story, has reached 700k and is likely to be added to the already impressive list of million sellers (about 8 up to this point) on the N64. To the ire of many gamers the N64's first RPG, Quest 64, a June release, had ranked in over 180k in sales by the end of summer. Desparation for a Nintendo RPG no doubt pushed sales, after the success of FFVII the previous fall (which was at 1.3m at this time).

Can Zelda 64 pull a DKC and save the N64 against PSX this Christmas... we were all wondering this 16 years ago...


August 1993:
The month before Mortal Kombat's release. The SNES had been outsold by Genesis EVERY month this year up through August according to NPD figures (source=Tom Kalinske PR). While SNES was the (slight) victor of 1992 thanks to Street Fighter II, the slow summer releases and a sleak newly designed Genesis unit (Genesis 2) released Aug 1st were looking to make 1993 the year of Sega. NoA had no major killer apps for the holiday season other than these exclusives: NHL Stanley Cup, Super Empire Strikes Back, and Secret of Mana. Compare this to Sonic Spinball, Joe Montana 94, and Eternal Champions. In addition to these non-exclusives: Street Fighter II- sp champ ed, Mortal Kombat, Aladdin, Jurassic Park, Madden 94, TMNT Tournament Fighters, and Tecmo Super Bowl.
SW:
This month saw a bit of a comeback from Nintendo with these Aug releases: Street Fighter II Turbo - expected to sell 250k opening weekend [source=Capcom PR] and Super Mario All-Stars. Other noticeable releases: Final Fight 2 (probably underperforming). Summer releases such as Battlemaniacs, Vegas Stakes, Mario is Missing, and Yoshi's Cookie just weren't bringing in excitement for SNES. March's major release, Star Fox, had cooled off quite a bit since it's 1 million* first week shipment [*source=NoA PR]. (I project sales were around 900k by this time...but that's just my projection, that number is not official)

Wow, good read.

 

[Glass Joe]

If I may I'd like to summarize the situation with Nintendo's past consoles at this point in time, in comparing WiiU with its predecessors.

Hmm, so by this time next month, Gamecube was already at $99, half of its launch price. Meanwhile, the Wii U has only dropped once ($50, $349 -> $299) though they've changed the bundled game over time to try to make it a more attractive proposition.

I'm honestly not sure that Smash is going to give the U stellar results. Some who want it might be fine with the 3DS version or choose to buy Nintendo's portable for it as opposed to their console.

The new bundles could really be $249, I think. U already has a reputation of being dead and the thought process of ''For a hundred more I could go next-gen'' will be strong with consumers, whether the other consoles give a game or not. N's gotta lose some hardware money to make some software dough. They should really upgrade that flash memory to at least 64 gig standard too. Might cost some pennies but any digital sale will make up for it.

 

[Loudninja]

Well Destiny sold 140k combine on the PS4 and PS3 in Japan and the white bundle boosted sales a good amount.

Going to be interesting to see September results, Destiny it act 540k with just Japan and the UK.

 

[NoMoreTrolls]

Well Destiny sold 140k combine on the PS4 and PS3 in Japan and the white bundle boosted sales a good amount.

Going to be interesting to see September results, Destiny it act 540k with just Japan and the UK.

Wow, that's more than I thought it'd do in Japan.

 

[allan-bh]

August 1998:
Official price drop month. Not to be left behind when either Sony or NoA announced a drop, a day or so later (IGN64) would report the competition was following suit. The race was still about a 55-45 race. The N64 was nearing 8m sold and the PSX passed the 10m barrier this month!

Relative close. Sounds crazy today, but at the time makes sense that people hoped for a turnaround.

You know the final NPD number for PS1 and N64 ?

 

[Square2015]

Relative close. Sounds crazy today, but at the time makes sense that people hoped for a turnaround.

You know the final NPD number for PS1 and N64 ?

PSX 30m
N64 18m

 

[allan-bh]

PSX 30m
N64 18m

Big.

I suppose holiday 98 was good for N64 with Zelda, must have been in 1999 and beyond that N64 was left far behind.

 

[chithanh]

You know why I didn't mention that website?

Because it's so laughable it doesn't even deserve mentioning.

And now we have one additional measure for the quality of their predictions: The NPD secrecy.

That's why I pointed to the 24 hour peaks, as that should account for timezones.

Problem with those is that XB360 made close to half of all sales in US, while PS3 did only about a third there. So the XB360 peak could be much more pronounced, while PS3 sold more evenly across time zones.

 

[theprodigy]

Hey, can anyone provide a comparison of Pokemon X/Y sales to the other mainline Pokemon games? (i.e. RBY, Gold/Silver, etc.)

 

[MilesTeg]

Big.

I suppose holiday 98 was good for N64 with Zelda, must have been in 1999 and beyond that N64 was left far behind.

I believe holiday 1997 was big for N64 in the US. IIRC there was much doom and gloom surrounding the console before that. Goldeneye launched in August that year and the console ended up killing it that holiday season.

 

[noobie]

Can Aqua or anyone else can tell us the ASP of the hardwares especially XB ONE.

Want to know how what is the mix of $400 kinectless XBO to $500 XBO. and how much more MS is making in hardware in comparison to Sony PS4

 

[Ty4on]

Mario Kart: Double Dash sold 68K in March 2004, and I don't have faith that Mario Kart 8 will perform at its level.

Big thanks! The drop in August was massive, but the drop for DD was much bigger into January. I wonder if part of the reason the drop was so big because of the bundles (don't worry, this isn't a codeword for "Give me percentages!" ) obscuring the numbers. I think we might have seen a floor being hit and I estimate MK8 will sell around 60k next month (5 weeks so just under 50k in 4week eq.) if that is the case.

The holiday season could give MK8 a nice boost. DD had a drop as evident by the fact that if you take (M1+M2+M3)/M4 sales (divide total sales before month 4 by sales in month 4) you get 16.8 for DD and 13.4 for MK8. That formula says 223k is missing for MK8 so I think I'll predict 300k in December for MK8. Why not, it'll look cool if I'm right

 

[ZSaberLink]

Big thanks! The drop in August was massive, but the drop for DD was much bigger into January. I wonder if part of the reason the drop was so big because of the bundles (don't worry, this isn't a codeword for "Give me percentages!" ) obscuring the numbers. I think we might have seen a floor being hit and I estimate MK8 will sell around 60k next month (5 weeks so just under 50k in 4week eq.) if that is the case.

The holiday season could give MK8 a nice boost. DD had a drop as evident by the fact that if you take (M1+M2+M3)/M4 sales (divide total sales before month 4 by sales in month 4) you get 16.8 for DD and 13.4 for MK8. That formula says 223k is missing for MK8 so I think I'll predict 300k in December for MK8. Why not, it'll look cool if I'm right

I think MK8 will do well saleswise in the holidays. Starting this month, a new MK8 + Nintendo Land bundle is there (only at Walmart), a new 3D World + Nintendo Land bundle is being introduced everywhere else. I'm sure the MK8 bundle sales were nonexistent last month (I got the feeling Nintendo stopped shipping them in August), raising the bar for how much you'd have to pay to play MK8. If folks end up picking up a Wii U for Hyrule, Bayo 2, Disney Infinity, etc. (we're back to having retail releases for the Wii U starting this month), we could see more purchases of MK8. I'm not saying we'll see a significant change in September/Oct (it still could drop), but I feel the more new Wii U purchases are available, the more folks will buy MK8. I think it's mostly saturated the current Wii U install base now and thus needs the install base to grow to continue its sales.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Hopefully we get bundle sales for MK8 this holiday season otherwise it'll be hard to pinpoint where the game sits

 

[theprodigy]

Hopefully we get bundle sales for MK8 this holiday season otherwise it'll be hard to pinpoint where the game sits

Doesn't NPD track those anyway?

just gotta wait for Nintendo and/or Aquamarine and friends to share

 

[Aquamarine]

Doesn't NPD track those anyway?

just gotta wait for Nintendo and/or Aquamarine and friends to share

Yes, and they were shared for at least the first two months.

 

[theprodigy]

of course you show up now

anything on this?

Hey, can anyone provide a comparison of Pokemon X/Y sales to the other mainline Pokemon games? (i.e. RBY, Gold/Silver, etc.)

edit: I know SwiftDeath

 

[SwiftDeath]

They may not always be shared though which is perfectly fine of course but if MK8 is to sell to new adopters mostly this holiday season, those adopters are most likely going to go for the MK8 bundle so without getting that information we won't have a perfect grasp of its sales

That's all I meant

 

[ZSaberLink]

Yes, and they were shared for at least the first two months.

Btw, were MK8 bundles even sold in August? Just want to make sure I was saying things correctly about them not being sold. I figure if they were, there were some insignificant quantities sold in August because of lack of stock, not lack of interest... or so I hope.

 

[Square2015]

Big.

I suppose holiday 98 was good for N64 with Zelda, must have been in 1999 and beyond that N64 was left far behind.

It was really the PSone that added so much sales to PSX. The original PSX sold between 22-23m, the remaining were PSone units selling for the next couple of years bringing the system to 30m.

 

[allan-bh]

It was really the PSone that added so much sales to PSX. The original PSX sold between 22-23m, the remaining were PSone units selling for the next couple of years bringing the system to 30m.

Interesting.

Since you know the numbers, by curiosity, how much Saturn sold in NPD ?

 

[M°°nblade]

I'm happy to see healthy Xbone and PS4 sales. Competition is good.

Meanwhile, I keep wondering how long Nintendo will keep the Wii U platform afloat.

 

[AniHawk]

I'm happy to see healthy Xbone and PS4 sales. Competition is good.

Meanwhile, I keep wondering how long Nintendo will keep the Wii U platform afloat.

2015 should be a decline despite the only year the system should see a steady release of games. 2016 will be a steep drop off unless they've secretly been planning for that to be a massive wii u year all this time. i think the platform's getting a replacement in 2017.

 

[Blanquito]

Sorry for my unfamiliarity with NPD details, but does NPD give information on the different hardware sales as well? For example, is there a possibility of finding out how well the black PS4 did compared to the white PS4 and the XBO? I'm just curious that info would possibly be... available in the future.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

2015 should be a decline despite the only year the system should see a steady release of games. 2016 will be a steep drop off unless they've secretly been planning for that to be a massive wii u year all this time. i think the platform's getting a replacement in 2017.

Depending on how their "cross-platform development" plans go, I would expect to see the WiiU go the full 5 year lifespan, just with basically no titles coming out while their next real handheld (not their interim measure N3DS line) gets launch focus.

Much like the droughts that represented the end of the N64s lifespan, or more tellingly, the end of lifespan Wii support.

 

[stryke]

Sorry for my unfamiliarity with NPD details, but does NPD give information on the different hardware sales as well? For example, is there a possibility of finding out how well the black PS4 did compared to the white PS4 and the XBO? I'm just curious that info would possibly be... available in the future.

NPD does give numbers for different hardware SKUs as well.

 

[Blanquito]

NPD does give numbers for different hardware SKUs as well.

Thanks for the info. The reason I ask is because if Amazon overall sales for the month hold true like they have in the past, both white PS4 and black PS4 are outselling the XBO, and I was wondering if there would be a way to confirm that.

 

[Game Guru]

Hmm, so by this time next month, Gamecube was already at $99, half of its launch price. Meanwhile, the Wii U has only dropped once ($50, $349 -> $299) though they've changed the bundled game over time to try to make it a more attractive proposition.

I'm honestly not sure that Smash is going to give the U stellar results. Some who want it might be fine with the 3DS version or choose to buy Nintendo's portable for it as opposed to their console.

The new bundles could really be $249, I think. U already has a reputation of being dead and the thought process of ''For a hundred more I could go next-gen'' will be strong with consumers, whether the other consoles give a game or not. N's gotta lose some hardware money to make some software dough. They should really upgrade that flash memory to at least 64 gig standard too. Might cost some pennies but any digital sale will make up for it.

Isn't part of Nintendo's problem with the Wii U that no one is buying software for their system? I mean that's why most of the third-parties have left save for the family-friendly games, except that no one is really making those sorts of games anymore... Even then, those sorts of games sell best on Nintendo platforms when compared to any other current gen versions. I mean the two LEGO games this month sold better at retail on the Wii U than the PS4 and the XB1 versions look to have only outsold the Vita and PC versions at retail. If I were a father who wanted to give his child a console at this point, it seems like I would be best served just giving my kid my old 360 while I upgrade to a PS4. It is the same sort of logic that lead to kids having smartphones in that you give your kid your old smartphone when you upgrade to the latest model.

The issue that I think Nintendo is having is that no one is buying a gaming system for their children be it consoles, tablets, or smartphones, but instead just handing down their old system to their children while they themselves upgrade to the latest and greatest.

 

[CosmicQueso]

I'm happy to see healthy Xbone and PS4 sales. Competition is good.

Meanwhile, I keep wondering how long Nintendo will keep the Wii U platform afloat.

Either they come out with a new box by 2016 or they're out of the 1st party console business.

 

[kinoki]

I'm happy to see healthy Xbone and PS4 sales. Competition is good.

Meanwhile, I keep wondering how long Nintendo will keep the Wii U platform afloat.

I don't think you understand what competition means. But the WiiU is best though of as a niche console at this point. The crowd will continue to buy games but hardware will be in steady decline.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

Either they come out with a new box by 2016 or they're out of the 1st party console business.

If by new box you mean their fitness thing, I agree.
If you mean a home console successor to the WiiU, then I don't.
EDIT;
I see their timeline as:
2015: N3DS line globally
2016: unknown fitness thing
2017: 3DS successor
2018: WiiU successor

 

[Square2015]

Interesting.

Since you know the numbers, by curiosity, how much Saturn sold in NPD ?

1.37m

 

[SwiftDeath]

If by new box you mean their fitness thing, I agree.
If you mean a home console successor to the WiiU, then I don't.
EDIT;
I see their timeline as:
2015: N3DS line globally
2016: unknown fitness thing
2017: 3DS successor
2018: WiiU successor

You're suggesting Wii U's successor to be released 6 years after the Wii U

Gamecube released 5 years after the N64, Wii 5 years after that. Wii U was 6 years after Wii's release

Wii was the most successful home console Nintendo has ever had so it's no surprise a successor came out later than previous precedents would indicate. Wii U is the least successful home console Nintendo has ever had so logic would dictate that either Nintendo will release a successor early or follow the N64 -> Gamecube and Gamecube -> Wii trends for failed consoles which is 5 years at absolute max.

6 years seems a stretch

 

[Nirolak]

Well I guess if they wait until 2018 we can see if an active home console can reach 3 digits a month.

 

[Aquamarine]

If by new box you mean their fitness thing, I agree.
If you mean a home console successor to the WiiU, then I don't.
EDIT;
I see their timeline as:
2015: N3DS line globally
2016: unknown fitness thing
2017: 3DS successor
2018: WiiU successor

Wii U will be long dead before 2018...trust me on that.

 

[Relativ9]

Instead of searching through the endless pages of this thread, can someone just tell me what the likely numbers you guys arrived at are?

 

[El-Pistolero]

I'd be surprised if XB1 will even be at 5.5 million by the end of the month :/

That is too conservative of an estimate imo...

 

[CosmicQueso]

If by new box you mean their fitness thing, I agree.
If you mean a home console successor to the WiiU, then I don't.
EDIT;
I see their timeline as:
2015: N3DS line globally
2016: unknown fitness thing
2017: 3DS successor
2018: WiiU successor

No. Absolutely a new console.

Retail will not carry the Wii U after holiday 2016 at the current sales levels, nor are those levels likely to improve if you look at any historical benchmark.

Look, I love my Wii U. But the data doesn't lie. They have to start over with a new proposition, by 2016. Or else they will have effectively exited the console mfg business.

 

[simplayer]

Instead of searching through the endless pages of this thread, can someone just tell me what the likely numbers you guys arrived at are?

Search for the relevant posters by clicking the thread post count and selecting the poster of interest. It doesn't take too long that way

 

[sörine]

5 years (2017) seems right for the new Nintendo console. I think we'll see the new handheld in early spring that year with the console following in winter. Nintendo wants to tie their hardware more closely together (unified OS, cross-platform games) so launching closer together might not be an issue.

 

[ZSaberLink]

No. Absolutely a new console.

Retail will not carry the Wii U after holiday 2016 at the current sales levels, nor are those levels likely to improve if you look at any historical benchmark.

Look, I love my Wii U. But the data doesn't lie. They have to start over with a new proposition, by 2016. Or else they will have effectively exited the console mfg business.

Hm? I don't think they're going to release a new home console in 2016 because I think that's when we're going to see the actual 3DS successor. Honestly I think to Nintendo at this point, salvaging their 3DS/handheld operations around the world to compete with smartphones is more important than their home console business. Nintendo has had a weak home console business before and has survived. They've never had a somewhat weak handheld business too. If Nintendo does worse with handhelds than it has done with the 3DS (mostly in the West), they're likely exiting the hardware business entirely sooner or later. Seeing that Sony is likely to exit that market, Nintendo really needs to come up with a good strategy to keep portable momentum going. With the 3DS they also have the power in Japan to continue getting support for the console and potentially come up with a cost-effective portable that competes with smartphones. Likely the entry price needs to be cheap (like not much more than $99), games need to be cheaper (definitely not $40), and it probably needs a very robust digital marketplace that provides obvious advantages for and focus around games (and potentially entertainment in general).

Personally my take...
2015: N3DS (West), QoL, Wii U software
2016: 3DS successor
2017: Wii U successor

I just think putting time and effort into the 3DS or even QoL is likely a better investment. QoL & Amiibos could hopefully provide some supplementary income for Nintendo's main game development platforms.

 

[CosmicQueso]

Personally my take...
2015: N3DS (West), QoL, Wii U software
2016: 3DS successor
2017: Wii U successor

I just think putting time and effort into the 3DS or even QoL is likely a better investment. QoL & Amiibos could hopefully provide some supplementary income for Nintendo's main game development platforms.

Based on past comments from Nintendo, and their thoughts that they'd like the handhelds and consoles to operate more closely together, there's absolutely no reason both a new HH and a new console could not launch together in 2016.

It might be the best way for one last go at the console market to work for them.

 

[Nirolak]

The current situation of the Wii U really isn't tenable.

They can't continually cash checks and lose loads of money to buy retail space, and at some point the retailers will want to put something else there anyway if things aren't selling.

The 3DS, while declining, at least is actually a notably physically smaller object and is selling better than its counterpart.