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NPD May 2012 Sales Results [Up4: Max Payne 3, Dragon's Dogma, Ghost Recon]

DS at this point was cheaper and had "already shot out its mario kart and another mario game platformer".

sm64? Really?

And a price cut is a price cut. An unprecedented 40% price cut is an unprecedented 40% price cut in one year. And you can't claim the Wii's initially low price point is the same as the 360 dropping its price. A strategic move to get a bump is a strategic move to get a bump and for the 3ds the 2 month bump accounts for almost half of the sales. Not only that, a price drop s suppose to be a long term influence, it's not a sale, it's a price cut. And yet, the steady month to month increase isn't there nor are the big nintendo IPs steadily on the NPD charts. And now they're stuck at that price for the 3DS.

The DS sold 10 million in two years in america. 30 million in four. In other words, the DS is going a half speed on that graph. As I've already stated, Nintendo has already pushed out what they KNOW is successful and system sellers and they dropped the price of their console 40% in one year, and for what? To keep up with the DS while its sales were only starting to pick up...when the DS brand was only getting started.

And again, if you can't see the brown line slowing down on a steady 4 month period back to pre-mario/kart/price cut rates, and eventually being oversold by every line on the graph (but the gray of course) then I don't know why I'm bothering. We'll see what NSMB2 does for the system, although, we can look at Mario Kart and the price cut and SMBL3d and take a estimated guess and say "something positive, but not what it use to." If they find next brain training or nintendogs, well, they won't need to rely on mario so much.
 

pvpness

Member
I'm assuming he meant no new IP, yeah there were big games last holiday, and there are huge ones this year too.

Now I'm twice as confused actually. He who? I was talkin bout you when you said,

Like I already said, MS did a $149 bundle last BF and it had its best ever sales by a huge mile, with no new SW, 860,000 units in a week. Explain?

I thought you were saying that the 360 had it's best ever sales on black friday with no new software to drive those sales. Which I found confusing. Some very 360 demographic-type games came out in Nov 2011. Just wanted to make sure I was understanding correctly.
 

Miles X

Member
Now I'm twice as confused actually. He who? I was talkin bout you when you said,



I thought you were saying that the 360 had it's best ever sales on black friday with no new software to drive those sales. Which I found confusing. Some very 360 demographic-type games came out in Nov 2011. Just wanted to make sure I was understanding correctly.

He (guy I'm quoting) mentioned there is no new SW for 360 this holiday, there clearly is, so I took it as him meaning new IP. There was no new IP last holiday for 360 hence my comment. Hope that clears it up.
 
I thought you were saying that the 360 had it's best ever sales on black friday with no new software to drive those sales. Which I found confusing. Some very 360 demographic-type games came out in Nov 2011. Just wanted to make sure I was understanding correctly.

Yeah, I wonder if that might be that line of thinking where Exclusives are the only things that drive sales. 360 sales are often bolstered by big name releases, even if they're multiplatform.
 

pvpness

Member
He (guy I'm quoting) mentioned there is no new SW for 360 this holiday, there clearly is, so I took it as him meaning new IP. There was no new IP last holiday for 360 hence my comment. Hope that clears it up.

Ah, gotcha. Thanks mate!

And...

Yeah, I wonder if that might be that line of thinking where Exclusives are the only things that drive sales. 360 sales are often bolstered by big name releases, even if they're multiplatform.

Definitely.
 
He (guy I'm quoting) mentioned there is no new SW for 360 this holiday, there clearly is, so I took it as him meaning new IP. There was no new IP last holiday for 360 hence my comment. Hope that clears it up.
No I don't mean new IPs, I mean new big games, period. Last year had more than this year. Just take a look at this years E3. Although a lack of new IPs is only gonna do more damage to the 360 either way, like it does for any console. The PS3 is going through the same thing and the Wii did a few years back.\

Oh I apologize if you took offense to being called foolish, I don't mean to do so. I do agree to many of your points, I simply think the cons against the 360 overtaking the Wii's sales outweigh the pros, now lets see how this game plays out.

Yeah, I wonder if that might be that line of thinking where Exclusives are the only things that drive sales. 360 sales are often bolstered by big name releases, even if they're multiplatform.
Of course, its why COD is such a monster on both the 360 and the PS3. We use to think exclusives matter so much because last gen the PS2 was the undisputed leader and so got all the exclusives, and Nintendo's first party being exclusive. This gen showed us that a big game will drive console sales no matter what, whether its exclusive or not. Look at PS3's many exclusives, it hardly does anything for the consoles sales, because they're simply not big games.
 

Lyude77

Member
sm64? Really?

And a price cut is a price cut. An unprecedented 40% price cut is an unprecedented 40% price cut in one year. And you can't claim the Wii's initially low price point is the same as the 360 dropping its price. A strategic move to get a bump is a strategic move to get a bump and for the 3ds the 2 month bump accounts for almost half of the sales. Not only that, a price drop s suppose to be a long term influence, it's not a sale, it's a price cut. And yet, the steady month to month increase isn't there nor are the big nintendo IPs steadily on the NPD charts. And now they're stuck at that price for the 3DS.

The DS sold 10 million in two years in america. 30 million in four. In other words, the DS is going a half speed on that graph. As I've already stated, Nintendo has already pushed out what they KNOW is successful and system sellers and they dropped the price of their console 40% in one year, and for what? To keep up with the DS while its sales were only starting to pick up...when the DS brand was only getting started.

And again, if you can't see the brown line slowing down on a steady 4 month period back to pre-mario/kart/price cut rates, and eventually being oversold by every line on the graph (but the gray of course) then I don't know why I'm bothering. We'll see what NSMB2 does for the system, although, we can look at Mario Kart and the price cut and SMBL3d and take a estimated guess and say "something positive, but not what it use to." If they find next brain training or nintendogs, well, they won't need to rely on mario so much.

SM64DS is legitimate to mention. It sold 8 million + copies. I think that's about as much as every 3D Mario sells. 3D Land is doing well, it should get above 8 million lifetime, and that's as well as 3D Mario does, so both are exactly what 3D Mario used to do (the original Mario 64 did a little better because it was completely new). It will be above Sunshine soon, if it isn't already. (You obviously have a point with MK7, though)

Yeah, wait for NSMB2. I think the 3DS will do worse than the DS, but not that much worse, and games like NSMB2 are why I think that. Also, Nintendo hasn't used Pokemon.
 

dionysus

Yaldog
Late PS1 into PS2 era, so 1999-2005. This was the time of the true ascendance of consoles, and a huge portion of the losses this generation have come from the slow erosion of that console dominance as PCs have flourished again, iOS has taken off, DS/PSP created by far the biggest handheld generation of all time, and so forth.

I think many of the decisions industry execs take need to viewed in context of the PS1 and PS2 era. That is when these guys came up in the industry and that is what they view as normal. They act like returning to the ps2 generation would be reverting back to normal, when in fact that was the peak for the console business model, not the normal.
 
People forget that the DS's first two years could have been slowed by the fact people take time to move on from one handheld to another and for GBA sales to slow down. Pokemon for DS is the last for the system.

After which you'll have to jump to 3DS for those new experiences.

The idea the 3DS would launch and be equal to the DS at the time of launch, seems a bit silly.
Not to mention all the different variations of the DS, meaing - repeat buys.
 

jvm

Gamasutra.
jvm, did you ever verify if DS sold > 100k?
Based on two independent sources and my own work with the official NPD data provided to me, I believe the NDS is right above the 100K line. But, it's so close as to be kind of a moot point. Is 1-2K within the margin of error? Seems likely.

Nice column

You have hardware estimates for this month?
Thanks for the kind comment.

In my own personal spreadsheet, I have the following figures for May. Again, I don't get official access to data, but I do see several sources which provide indirect information. These are rounded to the nearest 5K:
PS3 = 130K
PSP = 20K
PSV = 50K
Xbox 360 = 160K
Wii = 70K
3DS = 115K
NDS = 100K

The smaller the figure and the lower the price, the less sure I am of the number. So that PSP figure has some wiggle, since it is averaging $130 or less per month and is such a small number of units.

Thanks, looking forward to your next article. Will you touch on X360 potentially becoming the #1 system this gen in US? I think overtaking the PS2 at this point would need a holiday bigger than last year unfortunately.
I will address hardware sales generally, but this is an angle I've been tossing around, yes. I hope the column will be up tomorrow, but don't hold me to it.

Also, while I'm here:
Wii ASP = $147
3DS ASP = $165 (estimated)
NDS ASP = $122 (estimated, suggests a 3-to-1 ratio of DSi XL to DSi)
PSV ASP = $266 (estimated)
 

Calamari41

41 > 38
I'm never surprised anymore when I see a game like Dragon's Dogma sell like shit in the US. I always think back to about a year ago when I sat my roommate down, who only buys CoD type games, and asked him to give Half-Life 2 on Orange Box for 360 a try. He wandered around that first plaza of City 17 for what seemed like an hour, getting more and more frustrated. I almost burst out laughing when he finally said "Man, this is hard. In Call of Duty, they have a big arrow at the top of the screen telling you which direction to go." His mind was blown when I suggested that he move a box so that he could reach a ladder and advance. We're talking about a smart engineer who works at a top aerospace company here, too.

This is the person that developers refer to as the "hardcore gamer," and it is the reason almost every game at E3 looked the same this year. It's not that they're dumb or anything, its just that they treat gaming like watching a movie. They just want to pop the disc in and watch shit happen.
 

Jokeropia

Member
sm64? Really?
Don't belittle SM64 DS, it sold 10.4 million and is certainly a better comparison for 3DLand than NSMB is.
And a price cut is a price cut. An unprecedented 40% price cut is an unprecedented 40% price cut in one year. And you can't claim the Wii's initially low price point is the same as the 360 dropping its price. A strategic move to get a bump is a strategic move to get a bump and for the 3ds the 2 month bump accounts for almost half of the sales. Not only that, a price drop s suppose to be a long term influence, it's not a sale, it's a price cut. And yet, the steady month to month increase isn't there nor are the big nintendo IPs steadily on the NPD charts. And now they're stuck at that price for the 3DS.
All this means is that they charged too much to begin with. It doesn't mean that there is less room for future improvement.
The DS sold 10 million in two years in america. 30 million in four. In other words, the DS is going a half speed on that graph. As I've already stated, Nintendo has already pushed out what they KNOW is successful and system sellers and they dropped the price of their console 40% in one year, and for what? To keep up with the DS while its sales were only starting to pick up...when the DS brand was only getting started.
And as I explained, they have nowhere near "already pushed out what they KNOW is successful". They had however "pushed out" an equivalent amount of this stuff on the DS at the corresponding point of it's life.

Whether 3DS will blow up like DS is anyone's guess, but it's not like they've already used any of the cards that did the trick for DS.
Mr. B Natural said:
And again, if you can't see the brown line slowing down on a steady 4 month period back to pre-mario/kart/price cut rates, and eventually being oversold by every line on the graph (but the gray of course) then I don't know why I'm bothering. We'll see what NSMB2 does for the system, although, we can look at Mario Kart and the price cut and SMBL3d and take a estimated guess and say "something positive, but not what it use to." If they find next brain training or nintendogs, well, they won't need to rely on mario so much.
The DS did a bit better in early 2006 than 3DS has done in early 2012, however the market as a whole did better in early 2006 so that's a consequence of the general market lull more than anything 3DS specific.
 

MajorPain

Member
Total retail spend on the Xbox 360 platform in May (hardware, software and accessories) reached $209 million, the most for any console in the U.S. and more than the spend on the other two current-generation consoles combined. (Source: NPD Group, May 2012)

WOW - PS3 and Wii must really be low. If they would lower the price of PS3 I might pick one up.
 

TheNatural

My Member!
If its been posted, my bad, I know jvm tracks this stuff though - but Nintendo's top 10 have been updated:

http://www.nintendo.com/games

Poor start for Mario Tennis apparently, debuting still behind the big two from last holiday. Kid Icarus 4th in May as well.

EDIT: Skyward Sword isn't even in the top 10 for Wii. HORRIBLE legs. SM 64 is 6th in DS sales, what, 8 years later now?
 

jvm

Gamasutra.
If its been posted, my bad, I know jvm tracks this stuff though - but Nintendo's top 10 have been updated:

http://www.nintendo.com/games

Poor start for Mario Tennis apparently, debuting still behind the big two from last holiday. Kid Icarus 4th in May as well.

EDIT: Skyward Sword isn't even in the top 10 for Wii. HORRIBLE legs. SM 64 is 6th in DS sales, what, 8 years later now?
Thanks. I'll put up the latest and link to the spreadsheets.

Edit: Here you go.

Nintendo Top 10 Charts 2012

Nintendo Top 10 Charts 2011
 

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
If its been posted, my bad, I know jvm tracks this stuff though - but Nintendo's top 10 have been updated:

http://www.nintendo.com/games

Poor start for Mario Tennis apparently, debuting still behind the big two from last holiday. Kid Icarus 4th in May as well.

EDIT: Skyward Sword isn't even in the top 10 for Wii. HORRIBLE legs. SM 64 is 6th in DS sales, what, 8 years later now?
Even though I enjoy the original Galaxy more, I'm surprised Galaxy 2 isn't in the top 10.
 

TheNatural

My Member!
Even though I enjoy the original Galaxy more, I'm surprised Galaxy 2 isn't in the top 10.

It never dropped to $20 like the original. I question Nintendo's sanity with failing to increase their $20 lineup last year. Surely a price drop on SSB and Galaxy 2 among others would have made much. much more money for them than keeping them with no sales at $50.
 

jvm

Gamasutra.
I would update my download charts, but Nintendo still has the May - Apr charts up. :p

If anyone happened to get the February 2012 download charts, I could sure use them. Somehow I missed them when they were up. :p
 
PS3 = 130K
PSP = 20K
PSV = 50K
Xbox 360 = 160K
Wii = 70K
3DS = 115K
NDS = 100K

Also, while I'm here:
Wii ASP = $147
3DS ASP = $165 (estimated)
NDS ASP = $122 (estimated, suggests a 3-to-1 ratio of DSi XL to DSi)
PSV ASP = $266 (estimated)
Any ASPs for the 360 or PS3?

Would be curious how much of a relationship there is between price and sales for the platforms right now.

Also, do you happen to know whether the free XBOX 360 promotion they're running again are being included again?
 

jvm

Gamasutra.
Any ASPs for the 360 or PS3?

Would be curious how much of a relationship there is between price and sales for the platforms right now.

Also, do you happen to know whether the free XBOX 360 promotion they're running again are being included again?
They're in the article linked earlier:
asp-comparison.png
 

Clear

Member
Dynopia said:
Besides, casuals rule the holidays, and 360 has the momentum.

360's momentum is slowing and the Nintendo has massive brand-power with casual buyers. I'm sure software sales will do the business for MS, but hardware-wise I'd expect them to be significantly (~30%) down YoY come holiday season.
 

jvm

Gamasutra.
360's momentum is slowing and the Nintendo has massive brand-power with casual buyers. I'm sure software sales will do the business for MS, but hardware-wise I'd expect them to be significantly (~30%) down YoY come holiday season.
They're only down 24% YTD so far, and I think they will get (a) a boost from the $100+XBL deal and (b) adjust pricing down the line on their systems. That could help them improve, not decline more.

But, until MS moves, we don't know.
 
360's momentum is slowing and the Nintendo has massive brand-power with casual buyers. I'm sure software sales will do the business for MS, but hardware-wise I'd expect them to be significantly (~30%) down YoY come holiday season.

Looking at that information above the 360 now has a higher ASP than it did the same time last year (which is insane really). I think a good prce cut could see them sell just as well as last year.
 
I know people will disagree but part of the problem with Dragon's Dogma is that its stupid name.

A good name conveys a image in the consumer's head that brings positive connection. "Dragon's Dogma" brings a complete blank.

A lot of Japanese developers don't seem to understand how to make games with good English names, stuff like "Infinite Undiscovery" comes to mind, and then they wonder why the game bombs because it's impossible to market the game to anyone except the hardcore who already knows about it. A game like that would have to have unbelievable positive word of mouth to overcome its marketing disadvantage.
 
Dragons dogma had some pretty somple things holding it back. First of all the demo was garbage and not only does it not sell you on the game i know quite a few people who were turned off their purchase because of it (maybe this was just the people i knew?). We have seen quite a few games this gen get surprising success from a good demo, this is an example of what the opposite can cause.

The next problem is awareness of the game. The games advertising campaign was pretty poor and the bland name didn't exactly help its cause.

Basically you have a situtation where there is little information out to inform consumers of the games existence or to make them remember about it. The information that it is out there (like the demo) doesn't make the game look all that great anyway.

I get the feeling that being SP only probably hurt this game quite a bit as well. One of my first thoughts when i saw the game was it would be great to play with other people.
 
One of these days you guys are going to realize that the only people who think that hardware unit sales numbers are the be all and end all, is internet message board posters. These companies one and only goal is to have a profitable business that is financially viable. Cutting price to move hardware isn't going to happen unless they think it will bring in more profit than selling slightly less hardware at a higher price.

And considering what the software sales have been like this year, they are far better off selling the hardware for as high of a price as they can since these late lifecycle consumers don't seem to be buying a ton of new software.

In the last week or two I've started to think that Microsoft's $100 console+2 year gold plan isn't about testing for next gen, it's about figuring out a way to actually make money off of the end of gen cycle, budget purchasing consumers. When you look at the lack of money made and software sold by Sony during the late cycle PS2(where they still sold a ton of hardware) I think both MS and Sony have realized that they have to make a meaningful profit on the hardware in order for it to be worth selling.

A PS3 price cut in 2012 would just be a fools errand for Sony. They are still down YoY despite the fall 2011 cut(and much lower ASP) and are still losing to a competitor that actually saw their ASP get larger from last year. The hard drive makes it hard for them to make any kind of noticeable profit at $200 and since so many people could be buying the console just for non gaming functionality, no point in dropping the price.

So to sum up, I expect no price cuts this year from either Sony or MS. I do expect MS to have some killer holiday deals, definitely expect a $100 4GB model on BF. I also expect MS to continue to add value to the console, like with the racing bundle that allows them to say "$110 worth of value added in". I think Sony's big holiday push will be a PS/Vita combo. Give people both devices cheaply and try to make it back with the combo games, like selling MLB the Show for a higher price that can be used on two different devices.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
The 3DS TTM chart say us something about Skylanders and Sonic.
In April, Skylanders was higher than Kid Icarus, which was at 223k. So, Skylanders was higher than 223k.
In May, we see that not only KI, but Sonic too went higher than Skylanders. So this means that Sonic is higher than 223k, probably around 250k.
 

Bruno MB

Member
The 3DS TTM chart say us something about Skylanders and Sonic.
In April, Skylanders was higher than Kid Icarus, which was at 223k. So, Skylanders was higher than 223k.
In May, we see that not only KI, but Sonic too went higher than Skylanders. So this means that Sonic is higher than 223k, probably around 250k.

So Sonic Generations is probably the best selling 3DS third-party game in the US (only Super Street Fighter IV 3D Edition or LEGO Star Wars III: The Clone Wars could have sold more). I'm glad it did so well.

Top 10 3DS Games
May 2012

1. Mario Kart 7
2. Super Mario 3D Land
3. Mario Tennis Open
4. Kid Icarus: Uprising
5. Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games
6. The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D
7. Sonic Generations
8. Pokémon Rumble Blast
9. Skylanders Spyro's Adventure
10. Pilotwings Resort

Top 10 3DS Games
TTM May 2012

1. Mario Kart 7
2. Super Mario 3D Land
3. The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D
4. Pokémon Rumble Blast
5. Star Fox 64 3D
6. Kid Icarus: Uprising
7. Sonic Generations
8. Skylanders Spyro's Adventure
9. LEGO Star Wars III: The Clone Wars
10. Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
sonic generations 3ds is probably the best-selling sonic generations.

Eh, kind of expected if that's the case. Still, I hope we'll see an exclusive Sonic game for the console, after Sonic & All-Stars Transformed.
 

Clear

Member
jvm said:
They're only down 24% YTD so far, and I think they will get (a) a boost from the $100+XBL deal and (b) adjust pricing down the line on their systems. That could help them improve, not decline more.

But, until MS moves, we don't know.

Bear in mind my 30% assumption is based entirely upon WiiU entering the market and cancelling out uplift from the strategies you describe.

360 is in a great position, no doubt. But nothing lasts forever and I really don't think MS are doing enough in their software line-up to counter Nintendo's family-friendly approach should it get off to a solid start in NA.
 

Miles X

Member
Bear in mind my 30% assumption is based entirely upon WiiU entering the market and cancelling out uplift from the strategies you describe.

360 is in a great position, no doubt. But nothing lasts forever and I really don't think MS are doing enough in their software line-up to counter Nintendo's family-friendly approach should it get off to a solid start in NA.

Console launches don't typically hit the ground running, even Wii didn't do massive numbers at launch (in the US). We'll probably see WiiU hit full stride as we go into 2013.

I agree with you to an extent regarding the casual fam friendly approach, the Kinect line up isn't anything to shout about. DC3, KS3, Just Dance 4, Fable Journey (they need to advertise this for it to do anything) Dragon Ball Z? I dunno ... I guess last holiday wasn't amazing either, they had Disney Land though. Should have delayed Star Wars even more imo.

But, I think MS's approach this holiday will be entertainment focused, smart glass I heard they're going to market heavily (hand in hand with their new tablet I bet)
 
I agree with you to an extent regarding the casual fam friendly approach, the Kinect line up isn't anything to shout about. DC3, KS3, Just Dance 4, Fable Journey (they need to advertise this for it to do anything) Dragon Ball Z? I dunno ... I guess last holiday wasn't amazing either, they had Disney Land though. Should have delayed Star Wars even more imo.

Kinect Sports 3? You mean Kinect Sports Ultimate Collection? It's not really a new game. But there's Harry Potter for Kinect, that Avengers game, and Nat Geo TV and Sesame Street TV should launch in the fall, too.
 

Miles X

Member
Has that been announced? I heard the rumor before E3, but nothing came out of it, as far as I know.

Can't find anything, perhaps it was just a rumour? Kinda glad if it is, franchise needs a rest and means Rare is fully focused on next gen. Still, it was a big seller for Kinect. They really need to drop it below $100 this holiday, it's way overpriced!
 
Eh, kind of expected if that's the case. Still, I hope we'll see an exclusive Sonic game for the console, after Sonic & All-Stars Transformed.
We'll probably see Sonic 4E2 on Wii U eShop. I don't know why Sonic Team didn't do an enhanced Generations port for launch, seems like such a no brainer.
 

slade

Member
Nice sales for Dragons Dogma. Hope RE6 suffers the same fate. Stop shoe-horning crappy co-op into your games Capcom.
 

Road

Member
If we exclude the PSP and the PS2, both of which are essentially irrelevant today, the top-selling console in today's market is the Xbox 360 which launched in November 2005.

I read it multiple times, but I still don't get this sentence.
 

jvm

Gamasutra.
I read it multiple times, but I still don't get this sentence.
It's getting fixed. I mangled it in my original editing, and it wasn't caught.

Correction:
If we exclude the PSP and the PS2, both of which are essentially irrelevant today, the top-selling console in today's market is also the oldest, the Xbox 360 which launched in November 2005.

In case people quibble, the DS Lite came out in 2006, and the original Nintendo DS (Phat) isn't still on the market. :) That's how I'm slicing it, but please feel free to quibble! :D
 

AniHawk

Member
In case people quibble, the DS Lite came out in 2006, and the original Nintendo DS (Phat) isn't still on the market. :) That's how I'm slicing it, but please feel free to quibble! :D

the original 360 isn't on the market either, is it? i thought they were replaced by slims back in the great purge of 2011.
 

Road

Member
It's getting fixed. I mangled it in my original editing, and it wasn't caught.

Correction:
Ah, now it makes sense. haha

In case people quibble, the DS Lite came out in 2006, and the original Nintendo DS (Phat) isn't still on the market. :) That's how I'm slicing it, but please feel free to quibble! :D

I guess you can always just ignore handhelds altogether. =P
 
Shane Satterfield said that at E3, the COD devs said that revenue wise, COD Elite would be on top of the NPD charts for the last couple months.
 
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